Oil and Conflict

[Johann]

Ukraine and Belarus are both heading for serious economic trouble. Both of these countries make billions from pipeline transit fees between Russia and the EU, and in Belarus case from re-export. Both have been in serious conflicts with the Russians, although Belarus gets less coverage.

Russia's northstream project, and the both EU's Nabucco and the Russian southstream pipelines by bass Ukraine and Belarus. In some ways this is good since it removes a source of conflict. However its also likely to produce economic and political instability with fallout for both Russia and the EU.

The larger question is how long Russia can actually export oil and gas at the levels it promises? The Russians insist that they can keep it up for decades, but that's based on a number of plans

- switching to coal and nuclear for domestic electricity generation and heating to free up gas for export
- gaining exclusive rights to extract and re-export Central Asian oil and gas
- persuading others to invest hundreds of billions in capital in their oil and gas industries in order to maintain production, *without* giving them a significant share of ownership

The first part can certainly be done, the middle one is dicey but looking up, and the last one is highly, highly unlikely without something changing.

[Philip]

Iran and the oi weapon.Iran could and in all probability will respond assymetrically by rupturing the strategic oil route through the Straits of Hormuz if attacked by Israel.What is most intersting is the Iranian commissioning of several midget subs,which being small and diufficult to detect ,are the perfect tool for such an operation.The Iranian decision to send two of these subs into the Arabian Sea to assist the Yemeni rebels fighting pro-Saudi forces in the region,is indicative of the important role it has for these little sea urchins.Don't write off these little fellows,remember how Japan sent its own midget subs all the way to Pearl Harbour in WW2.

http://www.upi.com/Science_News/Resourc ... 259944194/

Oil is a tool for Iran, an analysis says
Published: Dec. 4, 2009 at 11:29 AM

TEHRAN, Dec. 4 (UPI) -- A U.S. intelligence review said Tehran could use oil as a diplomatic weapon by closing down the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian media boasts.

State broadcaster Press TV refers to a report by the U.S. Office of Naval Intelligence that states Tehran could benefit diplomatically by shutting down oil shipping lanes in the narrow strait dividing the Persian Gulf from the Gulf of Oman.

"Given the importance of the strait, disrupting traffic flow or even threatening to do so may be an effective tool for Iran," the broadcaster quoted the ONI report.

Press TV references a review by Mark Fitzpatrick, a chief proliferation analyst with the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, who warned Tehran could take action in the Strait of Hormuz as Israel prepares for an attack in response for its nuclear activity.

Iranian naval commander Rear Adm. Haibollah Sayyari said in September that the country's naval forces had "a duty to block routes used by the enemy, should the necessity arise."

[Philip]

Mayhem in Baghdad.Could the attacks be becuase of the imminent oil auctions?

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/de ... explosions

The explosions underlined the precarious nature of security in Baghdad ahead of an auction of oilfield contracts at the weekend and with elections due in February. Iraqi and US military officials fear that insurgents will step up their attacks to weaken the authority of Nouri al-Maliki, the prime minister, ahead of elections that are meant to showcase Iraq's return to political stability.

112 killed as four car bombs explode in Baghdad
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/

[Philip]

The West has 'lost' Iran and Turkey, with an assist from Russia and to China's benefit

Enter Iran's new rôle in the PRC grand strategy. Iran is considered as the primary venue for reaching out to Central Asia. The evolving PRC energy policy is based on transporting hydrocarbons by pipeline to the coast of the Arabian Sea and onward by tanker to China. This grand strategic surge will be consolidated in a few years once the U.S. completes its withdrawal from Afghanistan. Then, a PRC-sponsored Iranian-Pakistani condominium is planned to be established in Afghanistan in order to get the hydrocarbons to the main ports in Gwadar and Chah-Bahar. Both Tehran and Islamabad are cognizant that in return for their cooperation in, and facilitation of, the PRC energy policy they would be provided with a PRC strategic umbrella against both the U.S. and regional foes (India, Israel, and even Russia). This grand strategy is the key to the growing PRC influence in Tehran. It is also the main source of the mullahs' confidence that they will be able to weather the U.S. pressure without having to give up too much to Russia, the current strategic power in the region. Given this background, what options could Western states consider in dealing with the present Iranian clerical leadership?

http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribun ... _12_07.asp

[Philip]

Russia has stolen a march over the west with the launch of its latest 'strategic pipeline" to the Pacific from Siberia,which will assist it greatly in supplying oil to the countries of the Far East and China.It also relieves some pressure from China's "Malacca dilemma",where China's main tanker traffic have to transit through the chokepoint of Malacca Straits.

http://en.rian.ru/russia/20091228/157396180.html

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin officially launched on Monday the East-Siberia - Pacific Ocean oil pipeline during his visit to the region.

The Russian premier also visited the specialized maritime oil-loading port of Kozmino, the final point of the ESPO project, where he gave the start to pumping the first batch of Siberian oil into an oil tanker.

The ESPO project is designed to pump up to 1.6 million barrels (220,000 tons) of crude per day from Siberia to Russia's Far East and then on to China and the Asia-Pacific region

The project's first leg envisages the construction of a 2,757-kilometer (1,713-mile) section with a capacity of 30 million tons (220.5 million barrels) of oil per year. It will link Taishet, in East Siberia's Irkutsk Region, to Skovorodino, in the Amur Region, in Russia's Far East.

The second stretch will run 2,100 kilometers (1,300 miles) from Skovorodino to the Pacific Ocean. It will pump 367.5 million barrels of oil annually.

KOZMINO (Far East), December 28 (RIA Novosti)

[VinodTK]

China replaces India in Iran-Pak gas pipeline project throwing an open challenge to American military supremacy in the area

[Philip]

The Russians have now signed an agreement with Sri Lanka to explore Lanka's offshore territory for O&G,a smart move by Pres.Rajapakse,as Russian military eqpt. and Russian involvement in developing the country especially in the energy sector,will keep both the Chinese and the Americans at arms length.There has been rising discontent about the presence of tens of thousands of Chinese in the island,who apart from stealing Lankan's jobs have been eating up all their wildlife! The Russian angle will counter any hostility that might be directed at the Rajapakse regime by the west,specially now that Gen.Fonseka has been arrested.

India had better sign on the Iran pipeline project soon or suffer disastrous consequences with China stepping in.As it is, China is a major arms supplier to Iran and cares a hoot about the US or any other country.We are only harming ourselves by blind obdience to Uncle Sam.Here's areport on the coming oil shortage from Richard Branson.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/energy ... warns.html

Britain faces 'oil crunch' within five years, Richard Branson warns
An oil crunch more serious than the financial crisis threatens to strike Britain within five years, Sir Richard Branson and other business leaders have warned.

[Philip]

JUst like our well funded "research labs" and boffins plumping for BT brinjal and other GM crops.

Think-tanks take oil money and use it to fund climate deniers
ExxonMobil cash supported concerted campaign to undermine case for man-made warming

By Jonathan Owen and Paul Bignell
http://www.independent.co.uk/environmen ... 91747.html

Many of these critics have broadcast material from the leaked UEA emails to undermine climate change predictions and to highlight errors in claims that the Himalayan glaciers could disappear by 2035. Professor Phil Jones, who has temporarily stood down as director of UEA's climactic research unit, is reported in today's Sunday Times to have "several times" considered suicide. He also drew parallels between his case and that of Dr David Kelly, found dead in the wake of the row over the alleged "sexing up" of intelligence in the run-up to the invasion of Iraq. Professor Jones said he was taking sleeping pills and beta-blockers and had received two death threats in the past week alone.

[Gerard]

The dragon and the elephant in a contest for oil

[svinayak]

The dragon and the elephant in a contest for oil

Fake discussions

New Delhi’s financial resources are much less than Beijing’s. The Chinese economy, almost four times the size of India’s, runs a large trade surplus, while India has a deficit. India needs large amounts of domestic capital to improve its inadequate infrastructure, while China has embarked on a huge construction programme and is in danger of over-investing at home. Chinese oil companies are much larger than their Indian counterparts and operate big domestic fields.

India cannot therefore beat China in a battle of the big wallets. But this does not mean Indians are doomed to run short of oil. Merely owning interests in foreign oilfields does not guarantee a supply of fuel. Oil is traded in world markets. Chinese oil production in Angola or Colombia does not entitle the Chinese to special prices. And Japan and South Korea have become wealthy without major oil investments.

[Prem]

Does this Oil conflict include Natural gas ? What will happen if India become the first country to develop efficient Post Oil economy.

[svinayak]

What will happen if India become the first country to develop efficient Post Oil economy.

It will never be allowed to happen.
India to create its geopolitical zone of inlfuence has to do oil trade for a long time.

[Prem]

What will happen if India become the first country to develop efficient Post Oil economy.

It will never be allowed to happen.
India to create its geopolitical zone of inlfuence has to do oil trade for a long time.

But sir, its inevitable.somehow, someone,some where got to give in. High oil prices are great incentive to discover new source of energy and then there is hell of lot more NG to be "found" in India. OIl will be required but wont be a crucial ingredient for economic development. IMHO, Just the techonology to exploit the Gas Hydrate can bring upon paradigm shift in energy economy.

[svinayak]

What will happen if India become the first country to develop efficient Post Oil economy. :?
It will never be allowed to happen.
India to create its geopolitical zone of inlfuence has to do oil trade for a long time.

But sir, its inevitable.somehow, someone,some where got to give in. High oil prices are great incentive to discover new source of energy and then there is hell of lot more NG to be "found" in India. OIl will be required but wont be a crucial ingredient for economic development. IMHO, Just the techonology to exploit the Gas Hydrate can bring upon paradigm shift in energy economy.

Just to have oil and source of oil but not use it will become very critical in the future centuries.
Keeping oil away from other countries and their large use by other economies will become critical.
Controlling and rationing the oil and also controlling the supply of oil to only chosen countries in shipping and pipelines will become critical.

[satya]

Just to have oil and source of oil but not use it will become very critical in the future centuries.
Keeping oil away from other countries and their large use by other economies will become critical.
Controlling and rationing the oil and also controlling the supply of oil to only chosen countries in shipping and pipelines will become critical.

The snail pace on domestic front in exploration of oil & gas resources in India de facto policy why( not this reason) but effect is what been stated above ( one of possible effects ) .

[Prem]

Just to have oil and source of oil but not use it will become very critical in the future centuries.
Keeping oil away from other countries and their large use by other economies will become critical.
Controlling and rationing the oil and also controlling the supply of oil to only chosen countries in shipping and pipelines will become critical.

The snail pace on domestic front in exploration of oil & gas resources in India de facto policy why( not this reason) but effect is what been stated above ( one of possible effects ) .

Not sure if true or not but one of my relatives working for ONGC (trained in Russia) once told me there was no budgetary allocation made by GOI for oil exploration till the mid 90s. Now today we have 4-6 Billion barrel good news from Rajasthan as posted by SS in other thread.

[SSridhar]

Vietnam Offers India Seven Oil Blocks in South China Sea - Sandeep Dikshit, The Hindu

Vietnam has offered India seven oil blocks in South China Sea, including three on an exclusive basis, and joint prospecting in some Central Asian countries with which both Hanoi and New Delhi have good political ties.

Following talks between Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and visiting Vietnam Communist Party general secretary Nguyen Phu Trong here on Wednesday, the two sides signed eight pacts of which the ones on energy cooperation and protection of information in defence will intensify the already close ties in these two sectors.

The MoU on oil exploration is for three years and its contents have not been made available. Hence it could not be ascertained whether the allocation will fall foul of China which lays claim to a portion of South China Sea that has been under Vietnam’s jurisdiction.

China had not objected to Vietnam allotting the lucrative Block 6.1 to India during the Cold War years in Nam Con Son Basin of South China Sea. But it objected to India taking up exploration in blocks 127 and 128 in Phu Kanh Basin. Chinese objections have included demarches, pressure on companies not to sell equipment to India and the alleged buzzing of an Indian warship that had transited through the disputed portion of South China Sea.

India returned block 127 some years ago after no oil was found and will return 128 next year after a financially disastrous experience with putting a rig in place.

In c. 1988, India had signed a Production Sharing Contract (PSC) for Block 06.1 (Nam Con Son Basin of South China Sea) in which it holds 45%. Blocks 127 & 128 (Phu Kanh Basin) were offered by PetroVietnam in June 2006. Since 127 proved dry, OVL decided to relinquish that block by c. 2010. Block 128 was drilled in c. 2012. In June 2012, OVL decided to exit from Block 128 as well as there was little prospect for oil or gas in it as well. Indian efforts were also hampered by solid rock as well as unavailability of any partners for further exploration. In July, 2012, Vietnam announced extension of Indian contract for two more years to scout for oil in that block even as it offered to share new geological data that might point to the presence of substantial amounts of gas in that block. However, China also invited oil exploration companies to explore for gas in the same block, thus eliciting a sharp reaction from Vietnam that all these blocks fell in its Exclusive Economic Zone and were in accordance with the United Nations Convention on the Law of Sea (UNCLOS). In September 2010, BP which was holding 35% stake in Block 06.1 decided to quit the project due to poor security conditions. It is this BP stake that India and Vietnam plan to acquire which has raised the ire of China which considers South China Sea as its ‘core interest’ along with Taiwan and Tibet meaning that China claims the whole area as its own and no compromise was possible.

[member_27847]

India had better sign on the Iran pipeline project soon or suffer disastrous consequences with China stepping in.As it is, China is a major arms supplier to Iran and cares a hoot about the US or any other country.We are only harming ourselves by blind obdience to Uncle Sam.Here's areport on the coming oil shortage from Richard Branson.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/energy ... warns.html

Britain faces 'oil crunch' within five years, Richard Branson warns
An oil crunch more serious than the financial crisis threatens to strike Britain within five years, Sir Richard Branson and other business leaders have warned.

India has been short-sighted about integrating into Asian economic system. Free flow of goods through both land (rail/road) and sea is very important to commerce.

India has no rail link with China despite long borders; and rail links with other neighbours are also weak or missing.

The Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline was a good idea. India must separate military from the economic, and stop acting like USA with a tendency to 'sanction' anybody and everybody.

Isolationist tendencies within India's elite are costing India economic progress.

[member_27847]

India must go for long-term energy supply agreements with countries like China. This is the right way.

India's over-emphasis on the spot market can create very serious problems in times of trouble.

[Pratyush]

India must go for long-term energy supply agreements with countries like China. This is the right way.

India's over-emphasis on the spot market can create very serious problems in times of trouble.

China is an enemy and will never enter into a long term relation with us as an equal. It will do by extracting eveery concession that it can and once the contract is signed. Will promptly renege on its commitments.

The best way, forward may be to convince the Soudies to sell us oil in INR. Considering the fact that they are pissed off at the Khans. They may seriously seek to diversify their options.

[member_27847]

Pratyush - saying LIKE China, not WITH China.

Long term energy supply agreements with oil producing countries.

[member_27847]

The British empire and New World Order (NWO) are based on control of natural resources. It is a known fact that most of the World's natural resources are controlled by combined American/British interests.

So both China and India are struggling to get natural resources needed for economic development.

There is big money in oil, coal etc. So conflict is natural. Many of the resources are located in violence-hit countries.
The Chinese have used retired soldiers to protect its mines in Africa.

India needs to be more aggressive in developing sources of raw materials overseas. This would require exercise of military power, no doubt.

[member_27847]

The Chinese have been successful in getting central Asian oil. India wasted this opportunity.

The Iran/Pakistan/India pipelines are critical to getting hold of central Asian oil, as this is the natural route from central Asia.

India is dependent on middle east and is unable to diversify. This may not play very well in times of conflict.

[eklavya]

The Chinese have been successful in getting central Asian oil. India wasted this opportunity.

The Iran/Pakistan/India pipelines are critical to getting hold of central Asian oil, as this is the natural route from central Asia.

India is dependent on middle east and is unable to diversify. This may not play very well in times of conflict.

If India has a war with the terrorist state to our west, the terrorists will cut off oil supplies passing through their land.

Now, the terrorists are wh0res and are owned by the criminal PLA-CPC regime to our east.

If India has a war with the criminal PLA-CPC regime, their wh0res to our west will also cut off India's oil supplies.

So, I think your idea has very little merit.

[member_27847]

Eklavya:

Wars do not last for eternity. And creating a dependence of Pakistan to India may remove the reason for war.

You can never plan for wars, you have to plan for peacetime.

My estimate is about 80% of Pakistan's population wants peace with India. The remaining 20% does not. Now it is up to India to pander to the 80% or 20%.

China:

Almost all regimes today are 'criminal' including where you live. It is just that you wish to ignore your own shortcomings.
How can China cut off India's oil supplies??? India gets most of its oil from middle east, which is like 1000km hop from Gujarat coast.

Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline:

This was a smart move to build this pipeline. The opposers should also stop sea and road traffic to Pakistan. I mean, opposing commerce is an absolutely silly idea. Why do you import onions from Pakistan??? That also benefits somebody there.

[vishvak]

More dependence on pakis will only make pakis push more terrorists under economic umbrella - the way pakis are misusing nukes as nuke umbrella to terrorise. To not prepare for war is another leftist nonsense when china itself has actual army like pakis.

This all regimes are criminal is nonsense created to hide others terrorism. How is it equal equal any useful when we are peace loving samaaj not exporting terrorism/irregulars/exclusive-ideologies etc and actually importing oil for our own use not to utilize it to spread violence.

What's the need of pipeline if Indians can manage enough shipping of oil or even direct India Iran underwater pipeline.

We are importing onions from pakis and we should import from most competitive markets, not as special favor to paki markets. Lets not confuse things.

[eklavya]

Eklavya:

Wars do not last for eternity. And creating a dependence of Pakistan to India may remove the reason for war.

Inverted logic. India would be dependent on Iranian gas flowing through a pipeline controlled by the Terrorist Army of Pakistan. How does it make Pakistan dependent on anything, except for the regular bouts of blackmail the habitual beggars will engage in for "transit fees", which itself is a good enough reason to avoid the Paki-wh0re-stan as a transit route.

You can never plan for wars, you have to plan for peacetime.

I will plan for peacetime as soon as the last Pakistani terrorist (in or out of uniform) and PLA criminal stops looking at India and goes home to rot in the cesspools they call home.

My estimate is about 80% of Pakistan's population wants peace with India. The remaining 20% does not. Now it is up to India to pander to the 80% or 20%.

India need not pander to anyone; and India certainly will not become dependent on the whims of some Paki terrorist for strategic energy supplies.

China:

Almost all regimes today are 'criminal' including where you live. It is just that you wish to ignore your own shortcomings.

On the contrary, the PLA-CPC are the biggest criminals roaming the earth, and possibly the biggest mass murderers in history. You need not be unnecessarily modest about such a "great achievement".

The genocidal activities of the CPC leadership have only last week been duly recognised by a Spanish criminal court:

Court ruling on Tibet raises concerns over Spain-China relations

... a criminal court in Madrid called for the arrest of five former Chinese leaders for their role in alleged crimes of genocide in Tibet.

The ruling, handed down last week, is aimed at Jiang Zemin, the former Chinese president, Li Peng, the former prime minister, and three other high-ranking ex-officials. The men are said to have held “political or military responsibility” in periods when the Chinese authorities are alleged to have committed human rights abuses against the Tibetan population.

How can China cut off India's oil supplies??? India gets most of its oil from middle east, which is like 1000km hop from Gujarat coast.

Any pipeline that passes through land controlled by the Paki wh0res can be turned off by the mass murderers in the CPC-PLA who pay for the wh0res services.

Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline:

This was a smart move to build this pipeline.

If its so bloody smart, why doesn't the Paki wh0re pay for the pipeline out of her own earnings (to the extent they are not already mortgaged: aha, there are none), or maybe pay for it from a "loan" provided by her criminal patrons in the CPC-PLA. Stop bleating like a sick goat at India's door.

The opposers should also stop sea and road traffic to Pakistan. I mean, opposing commerce is an absolutely silly idea. Why do you import onions from Pakistan??? That also benefits somebody there.

The Paki wh0re is free to build a pipe on her own land. If India wants to buy onions or buy the gas coming through the pipe, that is our decision, which we will take in our own time, and for our own reasons. No one is stopping the Paki wh0re and her criminal clients in the CPC-PLA from building the pipeline.

[panduranghari]

Just like Isabel of Castille and Ferdinand of Aragorn spent a fortune seeking a way to India when the middle east was under the control of Ottoman Turks, the future resources including oil will be controlled by choke points. We still control a major choke point from Chinese point of view and that is a good thing.



Without oil the Chinese war machine will come to a full stop. US still controls ME and unless ME OPEC decides to ditch the US dollar, that ain't changing.

[syele]

Above map shows only sea lanes of oil trade not land routes. If push comes to shove, China can sustain its war machine based on oil from Russia and former Russian Republics.

[Philip]

In other words "Dr.Zhivago" will have "Who He?" on life support!

In earlier posts I showed that the true reason for the Syrian conflict was its massive petro reserves,larger than Kuwait,a karge part of it offshore.Now Russia has first peck at the offshore oil bonanza which the Saudis had hoped to control.There is much gnashing of teeth and wringing of hands in Riyadh and Qatar as the USA ha s gone cold over a mil. assault on the Syrian regime.

Russian Firm to Explore Syrian Offshore Oil Fields

Damascus, Nov 20.- Syria will sign a contract with Russian company Soyuz Naftagaz for the exploration of oil fields in Syrian territorial waters, Minister of Oil and Mineral Resources Suleiman Abbas revealed.

The possibility of exploration was opened to the Russian company after the Syrian Council of Ministers approved a letter from the Economic Commission with a positive assessment.

Abbas said the agreement is of utmost importance and constitutes a big challenge, above all under the current circumstances of the war going on in Syria.

The agreement will also encourage companies from friendly countries, above all Russians, to come to Syria to invest and carry out oil and gas exploration projects, added the minister.

Soyuz Naftagaz will start its exploration activities immediately after the contract is signed in the next few days. (Prensa Latina)

[panduranghari]

Above map shows only sea lanes of oil trade not land routes. If push comes to shove, China can sustain its war machine based on oil from Russia and former Russian Republics.

I have always taken that into account. Russia wants to be very powerful again. And those who wish to become powerful keep neighbors in perpetual subjugation. There is no chance Russia and China will be friends forever. Though current overtures suggest otherwise.

the ties that bind

While Xi’s trip may be a one time event, the growing Sino-Russian energy relationship is premised on long-term cooperation. Just hours after Xi's arrival in Russia on Friday, the head of Russian energy giant Rosneft announced it had reached an "agreement in principle" to more than triple its annual oil exports to China, from 15 million tonnes last year to 45-50 million tonnes at an unspecified future date (likely around 2018). This will make China the largest consumer of Russian oil. As part of the deal, Rosneft and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) will also jointly develop 3 offshore blocks of oil near the Barents Sea and 8 onshore deposits in East Siberia.

Furthermore, Gazprom expects to finally sign a deal with Beijing as early as the end of this month, in which it would export 38 billion cubic meters of gas to China annually. Gazprom is also reportedly pushing for a loan as part of this deal to construct a pipeline to deliver gas to China via Siberia, much like the U.S. $25 billion loan China provided Rosneft with in 2009 to construct the East Siberia-Pacific Ocean oil pipeline.

There is a significant convergence of interest between the two sides on energy cooperation. British Petroleum forecasts that over half of the global liquids demand growth through 2030 will come from China, at which point Beijing’s 46 Billion Cubic Feet (bcf/d) of daily gas consumption will equal the entire EU’s gas consumption in 2010. China is already rivaling the U.S. in terms of oil imports, and BP expects China and India to account for 94 percent of net oil demand growth through 2030. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), by 2035 will be China importing 75 percent of the oil it consumes.

All of this poses a number of dilemmas for Chinese policymakers, given the U.S. Navy’s control over global sea lanes. Despite over a decade of double digit increases in its military budget, China’s growing reliance on foreign energy far outpaces its ability to displace U.S. and allied naval forces. As my colleague Rory Medcalf recently pointed out, none of this has gone unnoticed in U.S. defense circles.

Russia’s oil and gas reserves are almost certainly to be the largest sources of energy that have overland routes to China, and are therefore immune to any sea-based disruptions. Furthermore, Russia’s interest in penetrating China’s energy markets is difficult to overstate. The Russian economy remains heavily reliant on energy exports, which doesn’t portend well for Moscow given the global energy revolution currently underway. Indeed, should the U.S. and EU ink a free trade agreement, Russia’s stranglehold over the EU’s energy markets could come to an end. At that point Moscow’s continued economic viability would fall to Asian nations, principally China and India.

That being said, although China’s military modernization is being closely watched in Moscow, it so far has concentrated on projecting power outwardly by sea. This is in contrast to its traditional focus on land-based threats, and indeed is only made possible by China’s secure land borders. In other words, Beijing’s military modernization suggests Chinese policymakers believe that tensions on their northern and western borders with Russia can be mitigated indefinitely, and conflict avoided.

This stands in contrast to the acute level of threat both sides perceive as emanating from U.S. and allied powers, partly due to some in Washington’s relentless campaign to revive Cold War tensions with Russia even as the U.S. pivots to the Western Pacific to contain China.

None of this is to suggest that Russia and China will spearhead a solid, cohesive counter-bloc to the Western world. As noted above, at the very least a high degree of mistrust will permeate the relationship. Still, the relationship likely has greater durability than has been predicted in the past, and the world ought to plan accordingly.

[panduranghari]

[youtube]JeufX6S-Q_s?t=8m48s[/youtube]

Starts at 8 min 48 secs. very pertinent to this discussion.