AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

[Muppalla]

Jagan meets Pawar, Uddhav Thackeray to stop bifurcation

INC sets up TRS as attack dogs on Seemandhra leaders and people. All abuse is attributable to TRS, INC is saint (Mercenaries)

INC sets up T-INC leaders as devotees of Mata Sonia and urging people to pray. Amma brought food and ghee and fought with Rakshas and liberated our land (cult slaves)

INC sets up Seemandhra leaders as helpless fighters for United AP. We're not chosen people and helpless to defend. (field slaves)

INC sets up CM as rebel fighter and unsung hero against unyielding Amma (Rebel field Slave, Captain AP)

INC sets up PCC president as loyal servant (the house slave)

INC sets up YSRC as Savior for Seemandhra people. Savior goes to other lands to save AP land. Saviors' yellow media propagates him as bringing nation against bifurcation (Mercenary Savior)

This post is keeper. This whole thing is orchestrated. Split may happen or may not happen. The eight crore population is take for a rid and in the process destroyed any remaining pride that they may have.

[johneeG]

Jagan meets Pawar, Uddhav Thackeray to stop bifurcation

INC sets up TRS as attack dogs on Seemandhra leaders and people. All abuse is attributable to TRS, INC is saint (Mercenaries)

INC sets up T-INC leaders as devotees of Mata Sonia and urging people to pray. Amma brought food and ghee and fought with Rakshas and liberated our land (cult slaves)

INC sets up Seemandhra leaders as helpless fighters for United AP. We're not chosen people and helpless to defend. (field slaves)

INC sets up CM as rebel fighter and unsung hero against unyielding Amma (Rebel field Slave, Captain AP)

INC sets up PCC president as loyal servant (the house slave)

INC sets up YSRC as Savior for Seemandhra people. Savior goes to other lands to save AP land. Saviors' yellow media propagates him as bringing nation against bifurcation (Mercenary Savior)

My understanding:
Any decision on T, helps the TDP recuperate. T stand of kongis influenced by the fear that Modi may use T-sentiment.

Kongis release Gajan from the prison and then unleash Doggy. Doggy is the bad-cop while Gajan is the good cop for the United-AP folks. RadiaMedia projects huge number of seats for Gajan to cut off TDP in Coastal & Seema.

Doggy does a lot of hungama. RadiaMedia projects as if the Separate-T is already a done deal even though nothing concrete has happened on it so far. RadiaMedia projects huge number of seat for TRS & Kongis.

KCR not taken onboard. So, he throws spanner into the works by declaring that Coastal & Seema settlers will be thrown out in separate-T. Seema & Coastal Govt. employees latch on to the opportunity and create a stir. It spreads and leads to a people's agitation in coastal and seema regions. KCR's arrow hit the mark.(I believe separate-T is not in the interests of KCR)

CM Kieran is preparing to form another Kongi B team because the Gajan factor may not be working.

Modi realizes the game and starts to dilute the lotus's stand in favor of separate T because he wants to take the United-AP folks. He aims for the alliance with TDP. Sushi aunty tries to throw spanner in the works because she thinks she can emerge as consensus candidate if the lotus is struck at 160 and without at ally(TDP, in this case).

Kongis continue to boil the pot with a new rumour everyday. The local kongis do some tamasha.

(Predictions for future)
-Final Act:
kongis fail to pass the separate T bill in parliament. They claim they didn't have the time to pull it off. They ask the separate T supporter to again vote for the kongis.

Gajan and Kieran claims that Kongis, TDP and even lotus want to split the state. So, United AP guys are asked to vote for either Gajan or Kieran who are the only champs of united AP.

------
The solution is the people should stop caring for this tamasha and vote on the basis of governance in the last decade. Inflation alone is enough to oust this Q-tiyas. I do believe that Thelugus had enough of the kongis and will oust them.

-----
Devesh saar,
I think the main problem is that newer elites are not coming. The old elites should be replaced by the newer ones. The older set is only interested in protecting their fiefdom and will happily compromise with anyone to do so. Its the stagnation that is the problem. The new elite needs rise and replace the older ones. Like Shivaji Maharaj...

In UP & Vihar, Maya(SC) & Mullah(BC) did rise(though they rose under the anti-Hindhu banner). But, something happened. In AP, the same old elites(Reddy & Kamma) are ruling for a long time.

There was a discussion on a video by some foreigner on Kammas. I didn't see that video, but there is definitely lot of caste discrimination in AP in all fields. And the two dominant castes are Kamma and Reddy.

On BR, we had Ashok Gottipatti talk a lot about caste discrimination(and used it to rant against Hindhuism). Interestingly, he is a staunch castiest(I think he belong to Kamma).

It was a great coup by these dominant castes(not just in AP) where they were able to blame the whole caste discrimination on brahmins and Hindhuism even though it was they who were the prime culprits in perpetuating it. The caste discrimination still goes on in some regions(including AP) and it is these caste groups that perpetuate it.

Kammas turned against Hindhuism and embraced communism. Reddys seemed to have embraced the capitalism.(Reddys seem to be powerful in T & Seema while the Kammas are powerful in Coastal areas.) Regardless of the ideology, the caste discrimination was rampant.

Now, Kammas seem to be returning to Hindhuthva fold. That may have led to the attacks on the Kammas by that foreigner. In Seema, Reddys seem to have gone the EJ route. Atleast, Yesu Reddy's father seems to have done that.

This is exactly how the old elites work in the entire country. Only interested in their personal fiefdom and ready to barter the interests of people for that. The only solution, as I see it, is that the newer elites need to rise who can replace these old ones... say saffron version of Mullah or Maya...or maybe another Narendra...a tea-seller from a theli caste.

[Rony]

The author syed amin jafri is a Congress-MIM man

All is not lost for Cong in Seemandhra

Desperation seems to have set in over the Seemandhra camp with the Centre going ahead with bifurcation process with utmost determination. That Seemandhra leaders have lost all hopes of keeping Andhra Pradesh united is evident from their 'defeatist' statements. A Union minister admitted that Telangana would become a reality soon as the central government and the Congress bosses were pursuing the T-process at "break-neck speed," disregarding the concerns expressed over bifurcation. His other colleagues from the same region threatened to block the Telangana Bill in Parliament if Hyderabad was not made a Union Territory.

It is only a matter of days before the Group of Ministers (GoM) submits its report, along with the draft Andhra Pradesh Reorganisation Bill, to the Union Cabinet for approval. Soon thereafter, the President would refer the draft Bill to Andhra Pradesh Legislature for its opinion before the Bill is introduced in the Parliament for passage during the winter session. The entire process is expected to be completed within the next four weeks, if no hurdles are encountered on the way. The new state of Telangana will formally come into being with the dawn of the New Year (2014).

This, in turn, would mean that the next Assembly elections will be held in the two states, along with Lok Sabha polls, sometime during April-May 2014. In the run-up to the general elections, the Congress high command aims to consolidate the party's gains in Telangana and evolve strategies to curtail its losses in Seemandhra (the residuary state). The party expects to bag a majority of Assembly and Lok Sabha seats in Telangana. At the same time, its effort will be to secure considerable number of these seats in Seemandhra.

When the Congress Working Committee (CWC) took the crucial decision to carve out a separate Telangana on 30th July, it dealt a body-blow to other political parties which were fighting for the cause of Telangana in this backward region. And, by pushing the T-Bill in Parliament much before the Assembly or Lok Sabha elections, the Congress leadership hopes to deliver a punch to rival parties in Seemandhra as well. Much to the relief of ruling party, its rivals are in a state of disarray and are reacting in a manner that would only help the Congress reap electoral gains.

In fact, things seem to be going as per the expectations of Congress bosses. Predictably, Telugu Desam has responded with its double-speak on the issue. Party president Chandrababu Naidu reiterates his commitment to Telangana and, at the same time, voices the concerns of Seemandhra people. YSR Congress founder Y S Jaganmohan Reddy has opted for Samaikyandhra plank, giving short shrift to his earlier stand of 'respecting Telangana sentiment.' And, if elections are held to the Assembly and Lok Sabha after the bifurcation process is completed, the YSR Congress may find itself in a tight spot over this stand.

YSR Congress and, to some extent Telugu Desam Party, can hope to encash on Samaikyandhra slogan only if the bifurcation process runs into rough weather and comes to an abrupt halt before the forthcoming elections. Otherwise, if Telangana becomes a reality before the polls, how can they go to the people and seek their votes after failing to prevent the bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh? This is where the Congress hopes to get even with them and turn the electoral battle in Seemandhra into a triangular fight with YSRCP and TDP. So, those who are predicting a rout for the Congress and prematurely scripting its demise in Seemandhra better watch out.

In the 2009 elections, the Congress bagged 21 out of 25 Lok Sabha seats and 106 out of 175 Assembly seats in Seemandhra region in a triangular fight with the TDP and Praja Rajyam Party. TDP managed 4 Lok Sabha and 53 Assembly seats while PRP got 16 Assembly seats but could not win a single Lok Sabha seat. In Telangana region, the Congress secured 12 out of 17 Lok Sabha seats and 50 out of 119 Assembly seats in triangular contests with TDP-led Maha Kutami (which included TRS, CPI and CPM) and PRP. TDP managed to secure only two Lok Sabha seats and 39 Assembly seats. TRS got two Lok Sabha seats and 10 Assembly seats. CPI won 4 Assembly seats and CPM bagged a lone seat. PRP got two Assembly seats. MIM won one Lok Sabha seat and 7 Assembly seats. BJP's tally was two Assembly seats, followed by Lok Satta's solitary win. Only three independents were successful.

[Rony]

Andhra Pradesh CM Kiran Kumar Reddy's days numbered as Congress looks for successor

The Congress leadership is working on a contingency plan to deal with the transition period before Andhra Pradesh is bifurcated, even as the Telangana bill is being readied for introduction in Parliament's winter session.

According to a source, the action plan includes identifying a successor to Chief Minister Kiran Kumar Reddy and revamping party organisations in Seemandhra and Telangana to ensure that the party's shifting social bases on both sides of the divide are effectively appeased before the Lok Sabha polls.

As a precaution against possible attempts to block the passage of the Telangana bill in the winter session — which has only a dozen working days — Congress is also weighing the option of calling a special session to push the bill through. AICC expects the government to roll out mega packages to heal the sentimental and political wounds inflicted by Andhra's division.

The Congress high command had held talks with party leaders from Seemandhra and Telangana regions over the last couple of weeks, sources said. "The plan includes propping up a new line of Congress leaders and installing a new set of organisational mechanism. Creating a separate Telangana regional Congress on the lines of Mumbai Regional Congress Committee is under active consideration," said a senior leader.

AICC is coming round to the view that Reddy, who questioned the bifurcation, "lacks the mettle and resolve to preside over bifurcation". Sources said Reddy's days were numbered as AICC feels he was a lightweight no major backing among state leaders and lacked administrative acumen. He is from Rayalseema, the political den of YSR Congress chief Jagan Mohan Reddy, and hence will be in no position to safeguard Congress' interests there. Having been the CM of a huge state, Reddy would be ready to quit than aspire to head a smaller Seemandhra.

A new CM — from the Kappu community of Seemandhra or a Reddy from Telangana — is likely to be installed to pilot the bifurcation. While Congress is keen on in investing politically in the Kappu community, which will be a dominant caste in Seemandhra, postbifurcation, there is a view that a new CM from Telangana will be politically and mentally determined to push through bifurcation besides sending a positive signal from Congress to the new state. "Once the state is bifurcated, we have to create two Cabinets and two PCC set ups before the assembly and Lok Sabha polls," a leader said.

Prominent Congress leaders of Kappu community from Seemandhra like senior ministers K Lakshminarayana, PCC chief Botsa Satyanarayana and Union minister Chiranjeevi and party veterans from Telangana such as senior state minister Jana Reddy, Union minister Jaipal Reddy and former PCC chief P Srinivas could be considered for new role. Some of them have met key AICC leaders, including Sonia Gandhi.

Reddy's public show of belligerence has raised suspicion whether it is part of an 'AICC choreography'.

[devesh]

johneeG saar,

you are touching a very sensitive topic. for both regions, a time is coming when the paradigm has to change or something drastic will happen. the problem you are talking about is very deeply embedded. I don't see how a society with that structure can continue without any problems indefinitely into the future. I am of the opinion that organic changes within society will ultimately gate-crash the elite party. but I also believe that existing elites who have a very strong attachment to strictly caste-based rulership model (which is already breaking due to newest generation exploring outside of traditional boundaries when it comes to relationships) will not go without a fight.

as the generation changes, and strict hierarchies of caste-lines break down, it will take an increasingly more complicated and complex system of compromises and deal-making to share profits.

but even here: even in the newer generation, as competition heats up, there will be those who will resent and hate it. this is where danger lies. it will be these people who will harken back to "old caste glory" because they have the foresight to see that ultimately caste-barrier-breakdown will have a direct and irreversible effect on elite profit-sharing.

[Shanmukh]

Here is a bit of surprising news.

http://www.apherald.com/Politics/ViewAr ... -leaders-/

Kishan Reddy wants to go alone, but that is not surprising. But what is surprising is this sentence.

Kishan Reddy gave assurance to BJP President that party could manage to win 5 MP and 30 MLA segments. President Rajnath Singh received feedback from one BJP leader recently.

Which are the 5 seats the BJP thinks it can win? Or are the five MP seats just in the mind of Kishan Reddy. In my assessment, the BJP is in the race in just two constituencies, Mahabubnagar, and Secunderabad, maybe Nizamabad, if we stretch things a bit more. But where else does Kishan Reddy think he can win?

[Rony]

http://www.apherald.com/Politics/ViewAr ... -leaders-/

From the above report

As per Survey Report, TDP can’t rule out from Telangana after the division. TDP won more than 30K votes in Parakala bye-election showed the strength of the party. Most of SA voters in Telangana prefer TDP as their choice. Going with TDP will get benefits both in Telangana and SA. BJP can turn as alternative in Telangana only when TRS merge into Congress. The report also reveals that Hinduvata is the reason for the victories in Mahabubnagar and Nizamabad but not Telangana. TRS will get major benefits with Telangana but not BJP. On other side, Narendra Modi also sent one delegation to review on BJP position in the state.

[ShyamSP]

http://www.apherald.com/Politics/ViewAr ... -leaders-/

From the above report

As per Survey Report, TDP can’t rule out from Telangana after the division. TDP won more than 30K votes in Parakala bye-election showed the strength of the party. Most of SA voters in Telangana prefer TDP as their choice. Going with TDP will get benefits both in Telangana and SA. BJP can turn as alternative in Telangana only when TRS merge into Congress. The report also reveals that Hinduvata is the reason for the victories in Mahabubnagar and Nizamabad but not Telangana. TRS will get major benefits with Telangana but not BJP. On other side, Narendra Modi also sent one delegation to review on BJP position in the state.

This report is like what I've been saying for many years in these threads. On T they achieve nil for the effort. If T BJP goes its way its a sweep for Inc+Trs in T.

[Dasari]

If there is one saving grace for SA in this whole fiasco, it is that they uprooted Congress out of this region for good. The Congress may win few seats based on some money power and local politics, but the cloud of betrayal will be permanently associated with the party as long as the state exits, even if the division actually turned out be a great boon for SA.

[Muppalla]

If there is one saving grace for SA in this whole fiasco, it is that they uprooted Congress out of this region for good. The Congress may win few seats based on some money power and local politics, but the cloud of betrayal will be permanently associated with the party as long as the state exits, even if the division actually turned out be a great boon for SA.

Absolutely. That is why I keep saying that stop discussing congress in terms SA and that is waste of time.

[vivek.rao]

If there is one saving grace for SA in this whole fiasco, it is that they uprooted Congress out of this region for good. The Congress may win few seats based on some money power and local politics, but the cloud of betrayal will be permanently associated with the party as long as the state exits, even if the division actually turned out be a great boon for SA.

I don't believe that suddenly people in AP get smarter. Even if they do, it is only temporary. Free doles are always sweet

[Muppalla]

Here is a bit of surprising news.

http://www.apherald.com/Politics/ViewAr ... -leaders-/

Kishan Reddy wants to go alone, but that is not surprising. But what is surprising is this sentence.

Kishan Reddy gave assurance to BJP President that party could manage to win 5 MP and 30 MLA segments. President Rajnath Singh received feedback from one BJP leader recently.

Which are the 5 seats the BJP thinks it can win? Or are the five MP seats just in the mind of Kishan Reddy. In my assessment, the BJP is in the race in just two constituencies, Mahabubnagar, and Secunderabad, maybe Nizamabad, if we stretch things a bit more. But where else does Kishan Reddy think he can win?

BJP will not come even second in any of T seats if it goes alone. Mahabubnagar they may come close third or second. This whole BS is cooked by BJP sympathizers because in the by-poll they have won the assembly seat by 1000 margin. Very low margin win. In Telangana if INC+TRS goes together it will be a sweep unless some competition is provided by BJP+TDP and use a lot of money.

Kishan Reddy is having day dreams and I told him that .

I don't see any basis for this day dreaming. They slowly lost even the takleef against MIM votes. Look the greater HYD election results. It was MIM Vs INC Vs TDP. BJP got just 4 council seats. All the bye-elections they got no deposits except for Mahabubnagar seat. In that seat TRS did a tactical mistake of giving the seat to a Muslim and even then BJP scraped through with just 1000 votes.

What is the changed scenario to see BJP suddenly winning 5 seats? All the seats where there are more Muslims, there are also a lot of Seema Andhra folks skimming with a lot of anger. They will vote to any party other than TRS and BJP. The thaw for them will come only if BJP aligns with TDP or Jagan and also make some gestures for SA. Once that happens then Modi factor and other anti-INC sentiments will kick in. BJP going alone in AP and winning even one seat is day dreaming. The images of Talibanic style destruction Telugu historical icons is not lost irrespective of BJP disassociating from that act. ABVP/BJP folks in Osmania Univ and all other places roamed around with virulent anti-Andhra divisive elements of TRS, T-JAC etc.

[Muppalla]

If there is one saving grace for SA in this whole fiasco, it is that they uprooted Congress out of this region for good. The Congress may win few seats based on some money power and local politics, but the cloud of betrayal will be permanently associated with the party as long as the state exits, even if the division actually turned out be a great boon for SA.

I don't believe that suddenly people in AP get smarter. Even if they do, it is only temporary. Free doles are always sweet

No one has given free doles more than YSR. All those freebie stuff folks will go with Jagan and not INC.

[Shanmukh]

BJP will not come even second in any of T seats if it goes alone. Mahabubnagar they may come close third or second. This whole BS is cooked by BJP sympathizers because in the by-poll they have won the assembly seat by 1000 margin. Very low margin win. In Telangana if INC+TRS goes together it will be a sweep unless some competition is provided by BJP+TDP and use a lot of money.

If INC and TRS come together, who occupies the opposition space? TDP? On balance, I agree with you that the BJP is currently `इतो भृष्ट ततो भृष्ट'. The whole business of desecrating and vandalising the historical Andhra figures was a huge piece of stupidity (not to mention obscene).

Kishan Reddy is having day dreams and I told him that .

Did he reply to you?

I don't see any basis for this day dreaming. They slowly lost even the takleef against MIM votes. Look the greater HYD election results. It was MIM Vs INC Vs TDP. BJP got just 4 council seats. All the bye-elections they got no deposits except for Mahabubnagar seat. In that seat TRS did a tactical mistake of giving the seat to a Muslim and even then BJP scraped through with just 1000 votes.

What is the changed scenario to see BJP suddenly winning 5 seats? All the seats where there are more Muslims, there are also a lot of Seema Andhra folks skimming with a lot of anger. They will vote to any party other than TRS and BJP. The thaw for them will come only if BJP aligns with TDP or Jagan and also make some gestures for SA. Once that happens then Modi factor and other anti-INC sentiments will kick in. BJP going alone in AP and winning even one seat is day dreaming. The images of Talibanic style destruction Telugu historical icons is not lost irrespective of BJP disassociating from that act. ABVP/BJP folks in Osmania Univ and all other places roamed around with virulent anti-Andhra divisive elements of TRS, T-JAC etc.

Agree about this. But I would wait until January or so, when the situation will be more clear. If the BJP has to fight for SeemaAndhra interests, it should grab the credit. There is no point giving CBN or anyone else the credit for stopping the arbitrary division of Andhra. And on that note, if the BJP is going to ally with other parties, what is your opinion of a hypothetical Lok Satta-BJP alliance? Can the duo ally with TDP as well, as in a TDP-Lok Satta-BJP alliance?

[Muppalla]

I think TDP+Lok Satta are going together though there is no usefulness at all whether Lok Satta joins or not with anyone. It is a useless party electorally. A Naxal party in deep forests will get more votes than Lok Satta.

BJP has to go with someone and that is the bottomline in the larger interests of Modi's congress vimukt bharat. Going alone will give anti-Modi forces inside BJP and outside a chance.

[Shanmukh]

This is something that was long in coming. Had this been done 10 years ago, or even 5 years ago, more good may have come of it.

http://www.apherald.com/Politics/ViewAr ... an-Reddy-/

The only curious bit about the article is this sentence.

Hence the leadership has reportedly ignored Kishan Reddy who is neither doing anything to strengthen the party and also fears that any alliance with TDP will diminish his role!

I can understand Kishan Reddy opposing any alliance with the TDP, but why is he doing nothing to strengthen the party? Or, is it the APHerald interpretation of Kishan Reddy's actions.

[ramana]

Telangana TDP is quite an effective presence.

[Muppalla]

I can understand Kishan Reddy opposing any alliance with the TDP, but why is he doing nothing to strengthen the party? Or, is it the APHerald interpretation of Kishan Reddy's actions.

It has nothing to do with Kishan Reddy. He is a nice guy and a very good organizational person with no major personal ambitions. It is more systemic and a fundamental problem than just political. This become repetitive on this forum with a 100 page Telangana thread and this one too. I only hope some finality comes fast and furious so that we don't need to discuss this ever. (unrealistic hope onlee)

The psychological divide between Telangana and rest is a real one. Whether it is history or individual economic progress of the folks, the gap is there due to the way folks in T approach to life and progress as compared to the way non-T folks approach the same. What is good, bad and other stuff is all relative discussion and filled with truth, false and biased opinions from either side.

Keeping that in background, INC, TDP, Jagan and also TRS (though it is only Telangana party) worked on a path that gets votes and enthuse their cadre. In the process all these parties have financial pull along with certain vested interests and caste combinations working in their favor. In India that is called as voter base.

Purely ideological stuff never works in AP or anywhere. Purely building on Takleef against MIM or issues also will not work. Everyone can show a lot of sympathy and "I love you" does not mean they will help you.

To improve in AP there are two options for BJP:

(1)
Forget its ideology and national attire and become openly like thugs such as KCR. Make open statements such as we will kill, kick and throw out non-T Telugu folks (other are okay ). This would have made them competitive with T-platform because they have support from Sushma, Gadkari and Rajnath and also Advani. In all the decade that passed these national leaders only made lip service to non-T regions. It would have been a historic moment for the BJP while calling national they may have said openly that we don't care shit about non-T folks. They should have treated non-T folks like the way Pravin Tagodia, Bal Thakrey or virulent anti-Pakistan folks treated Pakis in their statements. That way they would have competed very well in Telangana. Since TRS is with Velama caste, they should have picked up Reddy+BCs. At the least T's 17 seats would have been competitive for them. Roughly translated, KCR, BJP are like Jinnah while Sonia is Mountbatten. (no kidding or exaggeration)

Fortunately for India and also as ingrained in the structure and sanskaar of BJP they did not go to that level. However, the perception on the non-T side about BJP is what I wrote above. In addition, there are no leaders in AP-BJP who is recognizable from non-T regions. This may come as a surprise for pan-India folks (and they can think all Telugus are fools ), but creation of T is treated exactly similar to division of Punjab between Pakistan and India or Bengal into West Bengal and Bangladesh. You can try any spin but that is the way it is. Now understand the plight of BJP with respect to AP and how they digged themselves in this.

Bottomline: This option is closed as they did not do like TRS and competed with full rigor that is needed. Though their local leadership has same mind as rest of Telangana population (to have independence/freedom from non-T rulers and admin), they are compelled to not do exactly like KCR. In addition as these are all for T they did not encourage or work with real interest to grow BJP in non-T regions.

(2)
Now that Modi wave is going and also there is a desperation among Indians to get rid of Sonia and her party, folks like you become more curious and start asking questions like above. . But BJP has to make some fundamental shift to this and that includes a thaw that is sellable to non-T folks. Once that is done, the leadership has to go on buying spree to get folks from INC, Jagan and the communities that are not represented but could spend themselves out. In addition, to make it winnable they have to go with TDP or Jagan. TDP is the best bet. On top of it, they need to take advantage of Modi who incidentally did not take a complete partisanship on T issue. He and his team needs to exploit that. A lot of work needs to be done and the first step is to shut the T-BJP folks. This is still doable as there are four more months to go. They need to wait out December because if the state is split it will be either December or after the polls. They need to adjust the narrative accordingly.

Regarding Kishan Reddy, he is not into any mafia or anything similar. He is very nice person and his thought process (similar to all those BJP folks in T) is that whatever BJP wins or not in AP, let us work towards creating Telangana first. Even if congress wins don't bother for now and let T form. Once T forms, TDP or Jagan cannot sustain for too long. The realignment of stuff gives ample amount of opportunity to make BJP as one with ideological+Reddys+BCs+STs. Velamas+Muslims+SCs can go to others (INC+TRS). In such a situation, Kishan Reddy has the opportunity to project himself as CM candidate. Regarding non-T, the anger will die down and BJP can start from scratch there. From this aspect he thinks going with Jagan is better than going with TDP from a futuristic perspective. Reddys will vote to Jagan+BJP combine and later to BJP only if the state splits.

The mindset very simple in T-region, come what may let us first have our own state. Everything else is secondary. Vece versa on the other side.

[Dasari]

Panel to Govern Hyderabad; No Package for Seemandhra
If this is true, this is better than getting cheated with a false promise of huge package from center and wait for next 50 years to fulfill. When there is no revenue sharing from Hyderabad, I don't understand why do they need this joint capital? Do they need to develop Hyderabad for another 10 years? As far as T, everything is going in text book fashion of congress raj neethi - why to give a damn to a region that is not going to give any seats in the next election,instead put all eggs in the favorable region and maximize the returns.

[RoyG]

Rajiv Malhotra
‏@RajivMessage
Andhra Pradesh state government is officially involved in financing Christian campaigns: http://christianminorities.ap.nic.in/

https://twitter.com/RajivMessage/status ... 4128877569

[RajeshA]

Panel to Govern Hyderabad; No Package for Seemandhra
If this is true, this is better than getting cheated with a false promise of huge package from center and wait for next 50 years to fulfill. When there is no revenue sharing from Hyderabad, I don't understand why do they need this joint capital? Do they need to develop Hyderabad for another 10 years? As far as T, everything is going in text book fashion of congress raj neethi - why to give a damn to a region that is not going to give any seats in the next election,instead put all eggs in the favorable region and maximize the returns.

Actually if Congress has decided to lean completely in favor of Telangana and to show Seemandhra the middle finger, then it seems Congress has doubts about the passage of the Telangana Bill. If they were sure, they would have made a somewhat balanced draft and had been serious about it. But if they think that the Bill would be rejected regardless of how balanced it is simply because they can't muster a majority behind it, then there is no need to be statesmanly about it, they can simply play politics and make sure that even if the Bill is toast either in AP Assembly or in Parliament, at least they can tell the Telangana people that they fought for their rights, without TRS claiming that Congress wanted to sell out Telangana based on some compromise clause.

It could well be that the Telangana Bill cannot be passed, and Congress is making a big show of it to secure Telangana at least.

[Muppalla]

^^^
If they want to ensure to not pass T but show themselves as something on the side of T they have many ways to do. Try to pass something called as RayalaTelangana which Telangana folks don't like at all. They are doing this as thought this is a state secret and just throwing some rumor based news releases. Nothing concrete at all.

[RajeshA]

^^^
If they want to ensure to not pass T but show themselves as something on the side of T they have many ways to do. Try to pass something called as RayalaTelangana which Telangana folks don't like at all. They are doing this as thought this is a state secret and just throwing some rumor based news releases. Nothing concrete at all.

No they don't want to show themselves only SOMETHING ON THE SIDE of Telangana. They want to show themselves COMPLETELY on the side of Telangana but as failing in the bargain to pass the Bill, but having tried their best.

[Muppalla]

No they don't want to show themselves only SOMETHING ON THE SIDE of Telangana. They want to show themselves COMPLETELY on the side of Telangana but as failing in the bargain to pass the Bill, but having tried their best.

Their credibility with every group in AP that includes Telangana is very low. They came either third or last in all bye-elections. Their one-and-only way is to create Telangana by the end of this year and show someone as CM of T state to get people on their side. All other narratives will put them to ZERO along with the big ZERO on SA side. At least this part is straight forward. In fact even of BJP makes sure that T bill fails, and congress goes back with cry-baby stuff no one will sympathize with INC. They are at the bottom and they only have a small window to resurrect.

[devesh]

RajeshA ji, INC cannot give up the coast entirely. that would be blunder. they will not do that. I get the feeling it's T which will ultimately come out the fool in all this. the deep pockets of AP coast are masters of the hedging game. many have chosen to conserve their ammo. for what exactly, I'm not sure. their behavior ever since the announcement has been curiously cryptic.

and to all the folks reading INC's obituary in SA: do not underestimate them. I'm beating my old drum and I hope at least a few will listen.

there is a game within a game going on.

[ramana]

Rajiv Malhotra
‏@RajivMessage
Andhra Pradesh state government is officially involved in financing Christian campaigns: http://christianminorities.ap.nic.in/

https://twitter.com/RajivMessage/status ... 4128877569

They did the same in Naga Land as they thought that the tribes have to be tamed and didnt want it to be Islam. Same way in AP the Family wants a significant Christian population to counter the Islamists. Told to me by a senior babu.

[ramana]

Read and ruminate

Rayala Telangana still on cards

Truly Radcliffe Commission mode.

[KJo]

Bharatiyas/Hindus are a culture-driven society and women are the preservers & caretakers of that culture. Islam/Christianity is usually a dos and donts driven society and men are often the carriers of authority.

Very good point!

[ShyamSP]

Read and ruminate

Rayala Telangana still on cards

Truly Radcliffe Commission mode.

Recently Some T leader were crying that entire Srisailam dam including left side falls in Kurnool dist. Rayala Telangana is a way to let them agree so they can CONTROL waters to rest of Andhra (it is not Seemandhra).

(Seemandhra - Half of Seema) are to be made begging upper state for water release.

Truly diabolic. Slicing and dicing of castes, religion, and regions to get votes in Assembly.

[Muppalla]

Read and ruminate

Rayala Telangana still on cards

Truly Radcliffe Commission mode.

Recently Some T leader were crying that entire Srisailam dam including left side falls in Kurnool dist. Rayala Telangana is a way to let them agree so they can CONTROL waters to rest of Andhra (it is not Seemandhra).

(Seemandhra - Half of Seema) are to be made begging upper state for water release.

Truly diabolic. Slicing and dicing of castes and regions to get votes in Assembly.

Ramana garu, that is a truly a planted news. He is just cooking a strawman thinking that RT will be allowed by AP assembly.

If they really divide like that everything will back fire.

[Dasari]

Recently Some T leader were crying that entire Srisailam dam including left side falls in Kurnool dist. Rayala Telangana is a way to let them agree so they can CONTROL waters to rest of Andhra (it is not Seemandhra).

(Seemandhra - Half of Seema) are to be made begging upper state for water release.

Truly diabolic. Slicing and dicing of castes and regions to get votes in Assembly.

Ramana garu, that is a truly a planted news. He is just cooking a strawman thinking that RT will be allowed by AP assembly.

If they really divide like that everything will back fire.

There are clearly two options. The first option of 10 districts of T with Hyderabad as joint capital will not muster Assembly support. To sweeten the deal, they have to put many conditions on Hyderabad, promise Polavaram and move the associated lands to SA, and give heavy package for SA capital. PC and MMS are against this kind of financial burden for the center ( not that they have to fulfil it, but this is something people will remember it for long time). They are very certain that if the bill fails in Assembly, they cannot move forward on division. In addition, the govt in AP will collapse.

Their hope is that the second option of T state with 12 districts, including Anantpur and Karnool, will pass easily in assembly with no packages to SA or any promises on Polavaram. This is basically a least cost option where the Congress wants to show the middle finger to SA in every respect. It comes with added benefit of more MP seats in T. This can boomerang if BJP uses this as wiggle room to get out of the stalemate they are in, although congress thinks that they can squeze the numbers to get simple majority. It all depends on TRS and the BC wing of T congress ( hence the hectic discussions with Raj Narasimha). The other factor worrying T separatists is that RT will require few more days and potentially push it to next year.

In both options, there is a clear animosity towards SA. I really wonder when and what triggered this 180 degree turn towards SA? Does Jagan's popularity hurt Sonia's ego? Or since this volte-face all started with Jagan's release, was there a more sinister arrangement between them? Perhaps we will never know.

[hanumadu]

Bharatiyas/Hindus are a culture-driven society and women are the preservers & caretakers of that culture. Islam/Christianity is usually a dos and donts driven society and men are often the carriers of authority.

OFFTOPIC:
Except in Islam, its a strict injunction to obey by the dos and the don'ts and that the whole community ensures is adhered to. The woman does not and cannot play a part in it even if she wants to.

[a_bharat]

It all depends on TRS and the BC wing of T congress ( hence the hectic discussions with Raj Narasimha).

I think Raja Narasimha is ST.

[Altair]

Andhra Pradesh state government is officially involved in financing Christian campaigns: http://christianminorities.ap.nic.in/

https://twitter.com/RajivMessage/status ... 7569[quote]
They did the same in Naga Land as they thought that the tribes have to be tamed and didnt want it to be Islam. Same way in AP the Family wants a significant Christian population to counter the Islamists. Told to me by a senior babu.

[/quote]

Did he say that they are using money which is collected from Hindu temples including TTD?

[Muppalla]

It all depends on TRS and the BC wing of T congress ( hence the hectic discussions with Raj Narasimha).

I think Raja Narasimha is ST.

nope. He is SC

[Yagnasri]

He is SC.
Basically they want TRS merger and Jagan winning and post election merger. Now both TRS and Jagan are not so cooperating. Mafia can not go back. Like many plans they are desperate for this plan. All the drama is to confuse every one and keep all options open. RT proposal is only a bargaining chip. So is HYDERABAD UT, Bhadrachalam drama also.

The serious issue of losing Srisailam, Bhadrachalam, few areas in Krishna dist which control canal network are not known to T agitators. Now with every thing coming out they are also worried.

[Paul]

Cabinet is veering to MIM proposal to include Kurnool and Anantapur in Telegana. This way they control 21 seats in Telangana.

[suryag]

What a masterstroke - now the congis are assured of nearly 30 seats(21 from RT and 9 from jagan batch in the rest of AP) manna padega they turned a 0 seat thing into a 30 seat proposition

[Vamsi.R]

sushma swaraj requested govt to put forward the telangana bill in the parliament in the upcoming winter session.

[Hari Seldon]

sussma is a snake onlee... time needed to read and discuss the bill first, no?

Anyway if tabling happens after 8-dec, political momentum may change against UPA should it lose 3 or more states.