Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

[niran]

In Rajasthan the curios trend continues from CG and MP, all the three sates witnessed Ladies and first time voters and voters under 35 years of age voting in record numbers particularly house wives, earlier they would cook the food and wait for the nod of their menfolk now these queued up and were the first voters by 10 in the morning they had voted and were back in their homes and as the cop would say prime fasciae data
shows the women and under 35 and first timers constituted 68% in CG 66% in MP 69% in Rajasthan
to do it legally so that no one claims this as an exit poll, i will say these voters voted across the caste/clan etc etc lines.

[Virendra]

I went to cast my vote at native village in Rajasthan Elections this Sunday. Here's something I wrote out of it.
The content mainly focuses on one constituency, but covers the state wide dynamics.
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Rajasthan MahaSamar 2013 – A ground report from Parbatsar

So I set out from Noida, to cast my vote in the 14th Legislative Assembly Elections of Rajasthan, mine for the first time. I was excited like a school kid going for picnic outing.
A journey of more than 350 miles would take me to my native village in the Parbatsar Tehsil.
After hearing quietly all that our so called leaders had to say, this is where I was to punch my voice and have it heard loud and clear.

My village is a serene and isolated pocket of around 640 voters and its laid back face could ditch anyone into thinking (incorrectly of course) that it was a lazy place.
It is a part of the Parbatsar seat in Nagaur district of Central Rajasthan (previously a part of Marwar). The area is dotted with sparsely forested (better called ‘Beehad’) Aravali mountains and I believe the Tehsil’s most picturesque locations exist in and around my village.

This Election in Parbatsar is perceived as a battle between the sitting MLA - Man Singh of BJP and Lachcha Ram of Congress. Demographies would change from village to village, but this ground report should improve the reader's understanding on how elections are fought in Rajasthan.

Demographics :-
Parbatsar is a moderately populated area of around 1,70,000 voters and agriculture is still the primary occupation of the natives here, well at least for the ones who didn’t move out for greener pastures.
The common voter of Rajasthan is a traditional, simple and yet politically passionate person.
Word of mouth is still a very important factor in juggling the equations of electoral politics.
Elections are a time where the otherwise cordial society’s fissures pitting the numerous castes and communities against each other, become excruciatingly visible. And we’re reminded of the arch rivalries like they never fell on the backburner. Largely the Party specific voting of cities is absent here. Parties hardly have any vote banks, it the caste/community that the latter rally to.
This seat is no exception to the remaining Rajasthan in terms of the electoral math. The voting population is dominated by Jats, Gurjars, Rajputs, Maalis, Muslims and Meghwals etc followed by the trading communities.

Let us visit the Jats first, after all they’re the most sizeable slice of the votes and had average CII (Caste Impact Index) of 3.26 in Rajasthan during last State Elections; clearly way ahead of all other castes. Jats are a hardy agricultural community that show signs of both - an Imperial community with typical Aryan features and gotras etc; as well as the customs, stubbornness and bonhomie of tribals.
They’re probably the best and toughest negotiators of politics among Hindus, closely competing the Muslims.
Looking at the longer record, we can say with a fair degree of approximation that Jats have largely been Congress voters, more so after Congress gave them the reservation benefits.
It was like adding fuel to fire. Jats have only become more restless and ambitious.
One thing that gives Jats the edge over others like Rajputs and Baniyas (traders) is that they have understood the dance of democracy very well. They realize the importance of vote and of laying votes en-masse. Their voting percentage is excellent and owing to this image their ground influence is likened to the effect of carpet bombing. Jats are roughly around 42,000 voters in this seat.

Gurjars are a community that has taken to agriculture without leaving their pastoral ways. They still own hordes of cattle.
Today they fall in the same bracket as Jats and Meenas in terms of occupation, broad lifestyle and consequently everything else. Thus the competiton.
Gurjars have long had a feeling of being let down and ignored. According to them, Jats and Meenas have progressed, benefitted at their expense. As a result they have at times resorted to negative voting i.e. they’ll vote to defeat the Jat candidate. This is a sometimes attributed partly to a reactionary consolidation that has started taking place in the State among a few castes lately, because of the growing clout of Jats.
Col. Bainsla has recently hopped in favour of the Congress and has appealed to the Gurjars to vote for Congress. But it didn’t seem to cut much ice in this seat. It was an odd situation as the Congress Candidate is a hardcore Jat. Yet the Bainsla group tried desperately to gather some local Gurjar leaders and put them on rally platforms like vote magnets. They barely managed some 2 middle ring leaders and the efforts succeeded only marginally. This might backfire as well, because reports suggest that the Gurjars only frowned at such tricks.
Needless to say, the ethicality of last minute political overtures is always under question. We place the Gurjar voters at 12,000 approximately.

Rajputs have been one of the laziest voters I have ever seen in the Indian democracy. Despite of being well educated, well connected and respected across sections of the society; they don’t find enough representation. Number one reason is the laid back attitude and number two is the lack of strategic rallying and show of force even at the hour of need. Among all castes, Rajputs often end up with highest frequency of sabotage and screw their chances due to overwhelming jealousy even at the unit/family levels. What to say of winning elections. Rajputs have mostly been comfortable voting for the non-Jat candidates. At the seat in focus, Rajputs vote bank is roughly pitted around 33,000.

Next, the Maalis with their approximately 12,000 votes have been a swinging lot traditionallly, up for grabs for whoever can impress them better. However in the past decade or so they have been consolidating as Congress voters wherever possible. The CM Ashok Gehlot belongs to this caste but Maalis are no exception to the ‘local factor dominated’ formulae of Rajasthan politics. Here the local factor need not necessarily mean the good looking issues like corruption, infrastructure etc. It comes down to dirty politics of caste competition and individual prejudice etc.

Muslims are yet another solid voting entity, not only in Parbatsar but elsewhere in the State as well. Their voting percentage is excellent and votes are laid en-masse like Jats. The only difference is that their methods of community level discussion, vote decision and compliance discipline are more developed than those of Jats. Unlike Hindu castes, they are also the only notable exception, voting on Party basis (read Congress). The voter headsount of Muslims stands at 12,000 ballpark figure and almost all of them live in the Parbatsar town.

The trading communities of Parbatsar Tehsil (dominanatly 'Baniyas') is almost as old as the first settlers of this region. They have a unique place in its history as till barely a decade ago Parbatsar was known for its huge and successfull annual fair. They guys only have a moderate voting percentage, but they prefer status quo and consistency in policies, Hence they usually do not swing to change Governments. They generally prefer BJP, who are perceived as a pro-Industrial party. Their strength (further subject to low turnout) is pitted at around 15,000 votes.

Brahmins are placed at around 10,000 voters and have been concentrating in the town lately. They have a moderate to decent turnout in polling and are slightly tilted towards BJP.

Many other communities like Meghwal, Regars, Balai etc are actually swing sections but their votes are said to be falling in Congress and Independents kitty more often than the BJP.

Meenas are not in huge numbers in the seat at focus, so we’ll glance over for now. Suffice to say that overall in State, the Meena votes have squandered without solid issues, distracted between traditional party choices and the National People’s Party of Kirori Lal Meena, who is the tallest Meena leader in the State.
Reports say that Gehlot Government had deployed maximum force around Meena’s core constituencies, supposedly to tie him down from doing any mischiefs. The leader is known to have a rough reputation.

In the bigger picture of this caste jumbo circus – most importantly the Gurjars, Meenas and Jats are a deadly triangle where none could stand any other’s influence. The likes of Rajputs, Baniyas and Maalis come across evoking only a mixed response.
Jat-Rajput rivalry is archaic but otherwise the Rajputs get along well with pretty much all the communities in Rajasthan, even with the Muslims and especially with the Gurjars.

Another peculiarity is that being on a bullish juggernaut; Jats have failed to cultivate support in the lowest strata castes of the society. On the contrary many other castes such as Rajputs, Gurjars etc have been able to gain some support from there in the past.

Last Time :-
Before we get into the see-saw of what happened this time, let me give a glimpse of where it anchors in the past.
In the last elections, this seat was won by a local (Rajput) BJP candidate Man Singh, of OP Mathur camp. He had warmed up to politics in Jaipur by already winning a ward there in the past and was constantly active in his party.
It is common knowledge that cities don’t yield space to budding politicians easily and there is a bit too much competition at times. One has to look for breathing space elsewhere.
For this or some other reason, many times the politicians migrate to their rural/native places.
After plenty of going around, this BJP candidate finally landed the Parbatsar ticket from BJP.
Congress tried to play smart by pitting an educationalist Rajput candidate against the BJP rival. Rajput votes were going to split wide open.
Consequently the Jats who felt left out, went ballistic on both parties as their numbers were highest. But the fury misfired when two independent Jat candidates entered the fray. Jats had put themselves in the same pit where BJP-Congress threw the Rajputs.
Both parties had wanted to polarize the electorate as usual. But it was their own doing that the things bungled up bad now. It was crystal clear that the two largest communities had completely divided their votes now. This was a big mess.
Gradually the battle lines shrunk between the BJP candidate on one side and an independent Jat candidate on the other.
BJP candidate was fighting there for the first time and the Jat-Rajput rivalry was still kicking hard.
My father was helping the BJP candidate in his campaign. One day when he stopped for a chat with local Muslim leaders in the Parbatsar town, they cordially but openly professed that the BJP candidate was a good guy but he was BJP after all. It was a clear message. After Jats the Muslims also were not going to the BJP candidate’s side. The candidate had to work round the clock in garnering the votes from other communities. Among the things that worked for the BJP candidate, one was that he had a clean image and at worst he was less known in some areas.
All he had to do was to outrun the best Jat candidate in the field. Considering that, it might surprise many that he won by a margin of 1692 votes only.
Man Singh got 26704 votes and his close rival was the independent Jat candidate Lachcha Ram with 25,012 votes. At third and fourth position were Congress's Rajput candidate & an Independent Jat candidate adjacently with around 15,00 votes each.

Paddle forward to present Elections. This time Congress has corrected its mistake and that independent Jat candidate is in the fray again, as the Congress player. BJP has entrusted the reigning MLA to fight back as his record and image have been decent. Being the reigning MLA he has strengthened a base of organized workers under him to campaign more systematically this time.

Thus in an even more fascinating repeat duel, the two top scorers of last elections are back locking horns in the ring for another bout.

Congress Candidate Prospects:-
Jats will vote for him in huge numbers. Looking at the share of Jat votes in the region, this alone might propel this candidate to a victory. Last time as an independent candidate he had given a tough fight to the winning BJP candidate, even after losing many of his core votes to another Jat candidate.
Considerable votes are also expected from far flung rural area where Jats run their writ.
Bainsla’s stunt has ambushed the Gurjar voters into tremendous pressure and confusion and some breakaway in favour of Lachcha Ram (with a rider of voting for the party and not the person) is imminent.
A small dent is possible owing to the incident where the candidate’s relative was said to be involved in an elopement (run away romance) case. We could not independently verify the authenticity of these reports, but the hear say cannot be hand waved away in such an electoral environment, as it equally affects the psyche of many voters.
Another small dent will occur because of community level Jat leaders mutual enmity disturbing the good fortunes of this candidate. Couple of these leaders and small time chieftains in the middle ring are not fond of this guy.
If the Jats repeat the last polling performance, make some infiltrations, without committing silly mistakes – their candidate would be through.

BJP Candidate Prospects:-
This candidate is the current MLA. His fairly decent record and good image has lead to a wave in his support, especially in the town.
In terms of the numbers, one change since last time is that Muslims have come up in his favour (with a rider of voting for the guy and not the “party” of course). We don’t know what lead to this - could be their perception of the BJP candidate, his work or could be an anti-Jat build up in Muslims. To me it was a tiny miracle, looking back at my father's experience of last elections.
Trading communities here are pro-BJP as usual and have found the candidate approachable, reasonable to deal with. Their votes were with him before and will stay so this time as well.
Same is the case of Rajput votes, only that the voting percentage needs improvement.
How much the other castes can consolidate against the big chunk of Jat votes will determine the fortune of this candidate. It is more crucial this time as compare to last elections, because this time the Jat vote is not divided in two players.

Rough estimates of the materializing votes are as follows:
85-90% Jats votes are going the Congress Jat candidate. 10-15 % would defect.
75-80 % Gurjar votes are going to the best non-Jat candidate ... the BJP candidate. Remaining would splinter wildly.
85-90 % Rajputs votes are going to the BJP candidates. 5% would defect.
65-70% Muslim votes are banked to the BJP candidate this time. Remaining won’t budge.
75-80 % votes of the Trading communities (baniyas etc) would stick to the BJP candidate.
Many of the remaining castes including Meghwals are thoroughly divided and we don’t have data for some.
Total voters count is not expected to swing wildly as the Election Commission has not only pruned many fraudulent, non-existent voters from the list; but also new voters have added to the tally.
So the figure will remain more or less around 1,70,000.

Another stone turner for many candidates was the support from University level leaders better known as ‘ChatraSangh’ Netas. These players not only ferried a large number of young voters between cities and villages for their commanders. But they also lent their entire core group of wingmen aka mini ‘bahubalis’ to the campaigning. Left Hand man, Right Hand man ... it was all hands on the deck.
It appeared a bit peculiar to me initially. Although I had realized later on that politics down here in the rural ‘beehad’ of Rajasthan, was so overwhelmed by a complicated struggle of local factors that the fundaments of savvy Metro analytics would fall like a pack of cards. This was a different world.

Voting was enthusiastic all around in Rajasthan (record breaking average of 74.38%). Rural areas opened up with aggressive voting since the break of the dawn, while the towns got in top gear after noon only. Such high turnout is attirbute to two reasons:
a) Election Commission has cancelled many bogus voters from its lists. So the number of eligible votes might have come down.
b) Allround good voting. Rural voting has been tremendously healthy this time and the City folks didn't disappoint either.

At many places the Candidates tried their imaginations to the best. One guy even distributed 30,000 Mangal Sutras as a smart appeal to the traditional Indian women among the voters.


Coming back to the polling at our Seat in focus, most of the votes at my village’s polling booth were cast by 2:30 PM IST, similar was the case in nearby villages. We had one Constable at the village booth but it never felt like we needed more.
The State officials and CRPF kept hopping between the booths for surveillance. Yet in the midst of all this, a lot of my gray matter got fried in the day light gray area activities. I call them gray because they are all pure black mischief done so effortlessly in the region, as if snow white saintly actions.
Rules and regulations be damned!! Liquor and money was getting distributed to petty chieftains of small but closely knit communities of far flung areas. I had never seen systematic chaos working in such a silent and smooth way. It seemed the procedures were twisted; identities were traded, hot lunch served for the polling parties and targets achieved by hook or crook. Person mattered not, law mattered not. What mattered was the vote. A casted B’s vote and C did it thrice. It all unravelled as if some well oiled and experienced machinery was at work and I could almost hear “that is how we roll here”.
It only reminded me of the convenience with which corruption exists in our society and system.

Many times in the eerie darkness of night, the candidates would send parties of goodie distribution (what else, booze and money) to the rival’s core villages to break away the votes.
At many villages including mine the guard was up. A band of workers of BJP candidate was setup, guarding the entry points of my village. They would play cards, drink booze and keep watch all night. Crackers would fire as signals of communication. What the signals meant I could never know. Yet the weekend was happening for a city dweller like me.
One of these rival parties in a Jeep was intercepted near my village and sent back. Another one on a bike (stealth mode?) was chased down. The duo dropped the booze on ground and ran away. Obviously it was the chasing workers who relished the booty.

The Mob:-
On Friday evening the BJP candidate was touring for the final phase to reach out to the voters for one last time. During that, with total two vehicles in Caravan he reached the Jat dominated ‘Kurada’ village. Some unidentified villagers or political workers blockaded him by filmy interception with 4-5 vehicles on the road.
It is a common practice for candidates to patrol from one polling booth to another, overseeing the polling and guarding against potential illegal practices of rivals.
Two days later on the polling Sunday when voting was almost over, for some reason the MLA found himself in the same ‘Kurada’ village that had a polling booth. This time things boiled over the top.
Perhaps it was the frustration of some rivals who had seen the wave in favour of Man Singh and tempers were eagerly waiting to break down.
A mob of hundred of Jats attacked the MLA. Reacting swiftly, his men locked him up in a house nearby and a bloody battle raged outside. The MLA’s vehicle was up turned and completely damaged by the mob. As soon as the news broke out, a large number of his supporters galloped in and surrounded the entire village.
Before the situation could escalate further, the MLA came out to diffuse the tension and stopped his men from resorting to counter violence.
Man Singh, the most educated of all the candidates, is known for being calm and low key.
At the same time the CRPF contingent swept into the village and effectively put a lid on the situation.
Later the incident was reported in a filtered manner at DNA as follows:
Rajasthan polls: Arson, violence hit polls; gunshots rock Rajasthan - India - DNA

...
Parbatsar MLA mobbed
Late on Sunday night, legislator from Parbatsar, Man Singh, was attacked by a mob of nearly two hundred people. The men who targeted the legislator could not be identified, cops said
...

But lets look a bit away from these gang fights. To the simple and straightforward villager, the touch point was not Modi or Vasundhara, nor was it Gandhi or Gehlot. It was ‘Sohna’ his Dhaani’s small time go-to guy who would bow down into the mud hut and while sharing Chilam would tell him where his and the dhaani’s vote was going this time.
Sohna had already had his bottle and share of green notes after all.
It is these Sohnas who use their tactical value and play pivot role in sabotage etc as well. Sabotage reports had emanated from MP also where BJP workers had reportedly abandoned booths and last phase campaigning.
Influencing these Sohnas’ would be the village’s Thakur or the Jat Sarpanch, both a bit higher up in the food chain.
What the voter’s behaviour in these high end digital elections also signified is that whether or not they went to Modi’s rally or of Rahul was immaterial; they still have a political choice to make. That they are passionate enough to make this choice heard far out and loud with 75 % turnout.
Let there be no doubt that it is a folly to conclude the mood of common voter by his high or low turnout in the pre-election rallies of political superstars like Rahul or Modi.
Now the naive and expert, rural and urban all folks have written the fate of Rajasthan’s politics for the next five years. The scroll would be read on Sunday the 8th of December.
Stay tuned to know who will enter the Durbar.

Regards,
Virendra

[muraliravi]

^^^

Awesome narrative boss. Very detailed. I am kind of surprised that there is Raje / Modi effect at all. But then we have ample proof to support your theory that indian elections are fought at a local level. And also BJP should stop day dreaming that just because jats in western UP were butchered with the connivance of congress and SP, jats will vote for BJP everywhere.

[Hari Seldon]

^^^ Good point. BUt just curious, do Jat women and 1st time voters vote exactly on the lines the patriarchy wants? Same for OBCs, FCs and others as well... we'll know soon enough, I guess..

[muraliravi]

post deleted

[niran]

Fantastic Virendrazee, but you did not explain why and how janani were allowed in ahead of their daily chores
serving the mardana kinda huge blow to H&D no?

[krishnan]

Will the Congress remain in power in Delhi?
india
Yes 16%
No 81%
Can't say 2%

rediff, but not much details like how many voted

[Virendra]

^^^ Good point. BUt just curious, do Jat women and 1st time voters vote exactly on the lines the patriarchy wants? Same for OBCs, FCs and others as well... we'll know soon enough, I guess..

Hari ji,

In rural areas, yes they vote on the patriarchy lines. Local dictum is followed like an age old custom.
Jats are ambitious and hence like Rajputs they do get split up at times. But the other OBCs, SCs and STs are a fist tight.
They are controlled by the Sohnas, who are a bit like the players that Rahul ji has detailed for Delhi slums.
There was no Modi and no Rahul in core country side. This high end digital politics has penetrated only the cities and perhaps partly in semi-urban areas.
If at all any influence is to be felt, we'll know only in Loksabha Elections. That would be a better test case for this factor.
Note : I also wanted to caution those who're getting excited by the high voting turnout here. It is partly because of the pruning of bogus voters EC did in its lists.

Regards,
Virendra

[Virendra]

Fantastic Virendrazee, but you did not explain why and how janani were allowed in ahead of their daily chores
serving the mardana kinda huge blow to H&D no?

I cannot speak for entire Rajasthan, but in the rural areas the voting is not something that women are prohibited from.
More often that not, the booths are at the village's Government School .. not too far off.
The women move in groups, escorted by a family member who usually happens to be a small time political worker.
By looking at the worker you can guess where the votes are going.
I saw plenty of excited women at my village's booth who were so eager that they were skipping desks (steps of the voting procedure) and were sent back again and again.
There were no lines for women. Hesitant women were guided and encouraged.
There was a line for men and they would just let the women hop in and proceed.

We had one cop at the booth of 640 strong voters and he didn't have a tough time smiling on the jokes of the villagers.

[Virendra]

What intrigued me in Parbatsar's case was how the Rajput and Jat candidates were neck to neck last time.
Look at the first two guys .. a Rajput and a Jat having 25-26 thousand votes.
Then at the third and fourth position .. again a Rajput and a Jat having around 15 thousand votes each.
After that there is no one in five digit figures.
Rajasthan is full of such rivalries. Sadly, the real issues get sidelined in all this.

[वरुण]

I think Kejriwal is a bit like Imran Khan. Foreign backed, anti-corruption agenda, with scores of followers on facebook. These days almost all my friends are singing paeans of AAP. Though as long as it's restricted to SM, I think AAP will follow Imran's footsteps with a modest opening for a new party but nothing earth-shaking.

[RajeshA]

Virendra ji,

thanks for your detailed electologue. It was certainly very interesting.

Every time I read about the Jātivadi political culture, I am ever more convinced that we should have a Two-Round Runoff Voting System. No candidate could then afford to build his election on the basis of either Jāti or Minority Votebank.

Every candidate would have to earn the blessings of more than half of the electorate, which one can't with politics of discrimination and favoritism.

[Aditya_V]

How come in spite of INC stance on UP riots Jats in Haryana and Rajastan are fleeing like bees to honey for INC, they are so caste consicious and vote based on caste, for someone who wants to destroy thier caste in UP?

[member_21074]

^^^

Awesome narrative boss. Very detailed. I am kind of surprised that there is Raje / Modi effect at all. But then we have ample proof to support your theory that indian elections are fought at a local level. And also BJP should stop day dreaming that just because jats in western UP were butchered with the connivance of congress and SP, jats will vote for BJP everywhere.

That is also true with bihar.
During my week long visit in diwali, i had detailed discussion with my retired grandfather. He was skeptic of NaMo, which is understandable since NaMo's speech may not appeal to 70+ population.
What surprised was goodwill with local public for Nitish. Many will vote for him, not the party.

[Virendra]

How come in spite of INC stance on UP riots Jats in Haryana and Rajastan are fleeing like bees to honey for INC, they are so caste consicious and vote based on caste, for someone who wants to destroy thier caste in UP?

Jats of UP are not so closely related to the ones in Rajasthan.
I cannot say about Haryana.

[Rahul Mehta]

Every time I read about the Jātivadi political culture, I am ever more convinced that we should have a Two-Round Runoff Voting System. No candidate could then afford to build his election on the basis of either Jāti or Minority Votebank.

Preferential Voting System aka Instant Recall Voting is better than TRV

And pls try to dig reasons why BJP didnt implement TRV in any local body elections in states where it has state govt .

[RajeshA]

Every time I read about the Jātivadi political culture, I am ever more convinced that we should have a Two-Round Runoff Voting System. No candidate could then afford to build his election on the basis of either Jāti or Minority Votebank.

Preferential Voting System aka Instant Recall Voting is better than TRV.

We discussed this a long time ago. Two-Round Runoff Voting is more costly but more suited to capture the passion for election campaigning and democracy in India and people can differentiate between the candidates much better.

As we have our to me well-known differences on the issue, I wouldn't wish to reopen the debate.

And pls try to dig reasons why BJP didnt implement TRV in any local body elections in states where it has state govt .

I don't know why. I don't even know if a state government can legislate on the issue. But if it is possible, then the issue needs to be brought more into focus.

[Rudradev]

Looking at the states where 2008 assembly elections were dominated by BJP-INC contests, we had:

2 BJP holds incumbency (CG, MP)
1 BJP upsets INC (KN)
1 INC upsets BJP (RJ)
1 INC holds incumbency (DL)

Many of us got very excited by these results, maybe most of all because BJP had finally opened its account in the south. We thought they were a harbinger of NDA victory in 2009. Man, were we wrong.

I'd like to point out that the actual/projected results in these five states in 2013, in and of themselves, predict a status quo.

2 BJP holds incumbency (CG, MP)
1 BJP upsets INC (RJ)
1 INC upsets BJP (KN)
1 ???? (DL)

CG sent 10/11 BJP members to LS in 2009. MP sent 16/29. There may be some room for improvement in the MP score in 2014, but it's hard to say if gains will be significant, given that many of the MP seats which sent INC members to LS in 2009 are formidable INC strongholds. Also, it's possible that gains in MP will be offset by losses in CG in 2014.

Rajasthan and Karnataka have almost equal seat numbers in LS (RJ 25, KN 28). In 2009, KN sent 16 BJP, 9 INC and 3 JDS members to LS. RJ sent 20 INC, 4 BJP and 1 independent member to LS. If we assume that victory proportions are likely to stay more or less the same in 2014 LS elections, although swapped for RJ and KN, there isn't a significant net gain of seats for NDA.

All said and done, 2013 assembly projections in these four states predict a net status quo for BJP in the 2014 LS seat count. Not enough, as we saw, to come anywhere near to forming a government.

The wildcard of course is Delhi. If INC loses in Delhi, it's an indicator of anti-incumbency towards the central government to trump all others. But who wins instead? Delhi will be the true test of many theories we've been propounding on BRF. Modi has bombarded it with personal appearances that drew lakhs of people in attendance. The BJP CM candidate, Dr. Harshvardhan, is a man of impeccable reputation and solid popularity, and his campaign has by-and-large been strong. There are of course bete noires in the BJP ranks in Delhi who will be blamed if the party fails to deliver... but such bete noires exist in the BJP organizations of nearly all states, and certainly at the national level (D4) too.

And finally, in Delhi we have a microcosmic model of the Third Front Effect: Congress' strategy to deny Modi a victory in 2014 even if it abandons all hope of winning the general election itself. Congress has pumped up the Aam Admi Party in Delhi just as it plans to prop up other spoilers in other states, even if the spoilers are entities who traditionally espouse anti-Congress positions, because Congress' sole priority is to sabotage an NDA victory at all costs.

Everybody is watching Delhi. Modi Effect, Third Front Effect, D4 Effect, all these factors will come into play amidst the general atmosphere of anti-incumbency fervour against the Congress. What happens in Delhi will be the bellwether for voters across the nation. If AAP effectively spoils it for BJP, there is a real danger of the Modi Wave being severely blunted on a mass scale, as millions of Modi supporters everywhere else lose faith in his ability to form a national government. On the other hand, BJP seizing Delhi from a triple-incumbent INC will have a symbolism that will galvanize BJP supporters and workers everywhere for the final push to 2014, and demoralize both INC and its Third Front proxies like nothing else. It could very well be the final straw that smashes the Third Front into overtly pro-Modi and anti-Modi fragments, sending potential NDA allies scurrying forth out of the woodwork.

And of course the imagination of the vast, young, undecided voter population in all corners of Bharat is completely on the line here.

So is the country really ready for Modi, or simply P.O.'d at the Congress? We'll find out on Sunday.

[KLP Dubey]

So is the country really ready for Modi, or simply P.O.'d at the Congress? We'll find out on Sunday.

Excellent post. I am confident that Mr. Modi and the party will win in DL. The anti-national INC and the closet commies (AAP) will be thrashed. The party will also win in MP, RJ, and CG.

Regards,
KL Dubey

[VinodTK]

From Deccan Herald: BJP to expedite BSY return

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) central leadership is set to expedite return of former chief minister B S Yeddyurappa to the party fold once the Assembly election results are out.

The BJP state unit has conveyed to party national president Rajnath Singh and other top brass that it was not averse to the re-induction of Yeddyurappa into the party, to boost its prospects in the 2014 general election. The central leadership had indicated that it would take up the matter after the completion of Assembly elections in four states and in Delhi.

According to party sources, Singh is likely to invite Yeddyurappa to New Delhi for discussion anytime after the completion of the counting of votes in the five Assemblies (December . The BJP, which hopes to win in at least three states, wants to use its “winning streak” as a bargaining chip in the negotiations with Yeddyurappa.

BJP central leaders, however, have made it clear that they are open only to a merger of the two parties (the Karnataka Janata Party, or the KJP has six members in the Assembly) and not a poll alliance.

Sources said the party central leadership was convinced that getting Yeddyurappa back into the BJP fold would improve the party’s prospects in the Lok Sabha elections. In the recent Karnataka Assembly poll, the KJP had secured 10 per cent votes, which is believed to be the BJP vote share.

Besides, a merger of the two parties will raise the BJP’s strength in the Assembly to 46, enabling it to wrest the position of principal opposition party from the Janata Dal-Secular (JD-S) in the House.

The JD-S and BJP have 40 MLAs each now. The JD-S got the principal opposition party status due to its higher vote share.

On his part, Yeddyurappa is playing his cards very close to his chest. Sources close to the former chief minister said Yeddyurappa was apprehensive of the BJP making use of his political clout in the next Lok Sabha elections and then sidelining him.

Yeddyurappa bargaining for the post of the leader of the opposition in the Assembly is not ruled out. He is also likely to seek the induction of his key followers, who were unsuccessful in the last Assembly polls fighting on a KJP ticket, into the BJP.

However, there is opposition in the KJP to the merger move. Two KJP MLAs, B R Patil and Gurupadappa Nagamarapalli, are understood to have told Yeddyurappa that they will not support the merger. Even if just three of the total six KJP legislators back Yeddyurappa, that is two-thirds of the elected members of his party, the merger can happen and it will not attract anti-defection provisions.

[krishnan]

how is promising to take up development work a violation of model code of conduct ??? DMK has filed a complaint against JJ saying she made promise for taking up development work in yercuad elections

[krishnan]

[disha]

That seems to be photoshopped? Both of the persons flanking Khujliwal look same.

[abhik]

All jholawalas look the same?!!

[Sanku]

That seems to be photoshopped? Both of the persons flanking Khujliwal look same.

One is Aseem Trivedi, the cartoonist.

[Rahul Mehta]

[/b]Rahul Mehta[/b] : And pls try to dig reasons why BJP didnt implement Two Round Voting System in any local body elections in states where it has state govt .

RajeshA : I don't know why. I don't even know if a state government can legislate on the issue. But if it is possible, then the issue needs to be brought more into focus.

See, BJP leaders did NOT even tell their workers and voters that election rules for local bodies such as Minucipal Corporation, Panchayats are made by State Assemblies !! The one thing common I see in Congress, BJP , CPM, AAP, SP etc is that they ensure that their workers, voters etc know as lttle as possible about law, administration etc.

Yes, State assemblies make laws on local body elections. And they can opt for election system different election system Parliament choses. eg Gujarat Municipal Corporation has 3 candidates per Municipal ward, and each voter casts 3 votes !! So if Gujarat Assembly wanted to have two round voting system for Sarpanch etc, they could have made it. But they didnt.

Now as per brining it in focus, I am trying my best to bring that in focus. Here is a way I propose to increase the focus on this issue : (fickle hearted people are advised not to click on this link, as contents are too too explosive in nature) -- http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 6#p1528103

[disha]

All jholawalas look the same?!!

Wow, did not know that the Jholawala scene has moved forward in India to become a Jholawala cult with same designer glasses and hair styles (hopefully it is better shampoo'ed now).

And Sanku'ji., thanks for putting a face to a pig called Aseem.

[disha]

RM'ji, All this 2 round voting etc is good on paper. The reality is that the CongI culture is so entrenched that it will take a generation or two to be taken out. And then all this preferential voting etc will come into picture.

So blaming BJP or others does not help (CongIs are to be blamed since they have been in power for most of democracy and they themselves do not have internal democracy, so what to say of others).,

Efforts are on two fronts - first is to provide better governance using already legislated laws. Legislating new laws should be deliberate and slow., preferential voting comes into that category. There is a gray area where certain laws have to be legislated swift to solve a governance lacunae or fix existing laws - but again that is a narrow case.

[Santosh]

Disha ji, very articulately stated. +1.

[muraliravi]

RM'ji, All this 2 round voting etc is good on paper. The reality is that the CongI culture is so entrenched that it will take a generation or two to be taken out. And then all this preferential voting etc will come into picture.

So blaming BJP or others does not help (CongIs are to be blamed since they have been in power for most of democracy and they themselves do not have internal democracy, so what to say of others).,

Efforts are on two fronts - first is to provide better governance using already legislated laws. Legislating new laws should be deliberate and slow., preferential voting comes into that category. There is a gray area where certain laws have to be legislated swift to solve a governance lacunae or fix existing laws - but again that is a narrow case.

Kyun bhai, what is stopping bjp from implementing it at a state level where they are in power

[Shanmukh]

Looking at the states where 2008 assembly elections were dominated by BJP-INC contests, we had:

2 BJP holds incumbency (CG, MP)
1 BJP upsets INC (KN)
1 INC upsets BJP (RJ)
1 INC holds incumbency (DL)

Many of us got very excited by these results, maybe most of all because BJP had finally opened its account in the south. We thought they were a harbinger of NDA victory in 2009. Man, were we wrong.

I'd like to point out that the actual/projected results in these five states in 2013, in and of themselves, predict a status quo.

2 BJP holds incumbency (CG, MP)
1 BJP upsets INC (RJ)
1 INC upsets BJP (KN)
1 ???? (DL)

CG sent 10/11 BJP members to LS in 2009. MP sent 16/29. There may be some room for improvement in the MP score in 2014, but it's hard to say if gains will be significant, given that many of the MP seats which sent INC members to LS in 2009 are formidable INC strongholds. Also, it's possible that gains in MP will be offset by losses in CG in 2014.

Rajasthan and Karnataka have almost equal seat numbers in LS (RJ 25, KN 28). In 2009, KN sent 16 BJP, 9 INC and 3 JDS members to LS. RJ sent 20 INC, 4 BJP and 1 independent member to LS. If we assume that victory proportions are likely to stay more or less the same in 2014 LS elections, although swapped for RJ and KN, there isn't a significant net gain of seats for NDA.

All said and done, 2013 assembly projections in these four states predict a net status quo for BJP in the 2014 LS seat count. Not enough, as we saw, to come anywhere near to forming a government.

The wildcard of course is Delhi. If INC loses in Delhi, it's an indicator of anti-incumbency towards the central government to trump all others. But who wins instead? Delhi will be the true test of many theories we've been propounding on BRF. Modi has bombarded it with personal appearances that drew lakhs of people in attendance. The BJP CM candidate, Dr. Harshvardhan, is a man of impeccable reputation and solid popularity, and his campaign has by-and-large been strong. There are of course bete noires in the BJP ranks in Delhi who will be blamed if the party fails to deliver... but such bete noires exist in the BJP organizations of nearly all states, and certainly at the national level (D4) too.

And finally, in Delhi we have a microcosmic model of the Third Front Effect: Congress' strategy to deny Modi a victory in 2014 even if it abandons all hope of winning the general election itself. Congress has pumped up the Aam Admi Party in Delhi just as it plans to prop up other spoilers in other states, even if the spoilers are entities who traditionally espouse anti-Congress positions, because Congress' sole priority is to sabotage an NDA victory at all costs.

Everybody is watching Delhi. Modi Effect, Third Front Effect, D4 Effect, all these factors will come into play amidst the general atmosphere of anti-incumbency fervour against the Congress. What happens in Delhi will be the bellwether for voters across the nation. If AAP effectively spoils it for BJP, there is a real danger of the Modi Wave being severely blunted on a mass scale, as millions of Modi supporters everywhere else lose faith in his ability to form a national government. On the other hand, BJP seizing Delhi from a triple-incumbent INC will have a symbolism that will galvanize BJP supporters and workers everywhere for the final push to 2014, and demoralize both INC and its Third Front proxies like nothing else. It could very well be the final straw that smashes the Third Front into overtly pro-Modi and anti-Modi fragments, sending potential NDA allies scurrying forth out of the woodwork.

And of course the imagination of the vast, young, undecided voter population in all corners of Bharat is completely on the line here.

So is the country really ready for Modi, or simply P.O.'d at the Congress? We'll find out on Sunday.

Rudradev-ji,
You are right about a 4-0 being an emphatic vote for Modi, and an illustration about the nation wanting Modi. However, I have a different theory about the coming Lok Sabha elections. In part, I was led there by your own theory about Mayawati (you hypothesised, IIRC, that she would go with the Congress because she has too much to lose if Modi comes to power), and RajeshA-ji's theory that many of those who have left the BJP (GPP, KJP, HLP, UBP, maybe even JVM(P)) will return to it. I agree with both your hypotheses. But I am led to a different conclusion about the Lok Sabha elections.

There are five big states in which the BJP has very minimal presence. Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Orissa, Andhra Pradesh, and West Bengal. Together, they account for 165 seats (including Pondicherry). In addition, the BJP has no presence in many of the north eastern states, so essentially, out of the 543 seats, the BJP is contesting only for about 375 seats.

Out of the 5 states, only in one of the five will the BJP have a pre-poll alliance, and that one is Andhra. However, even assuming an optimal situation for the BJP-TDP alliance, they cannot expect to win more than 15 seats there. More likely, the BJP-TDP alliance will win about 10 seats (no more). In my estimate, the BJP and its allies (including TDP) will win about 225 seats in the coming Lok Sabha elections, leaving them needing about 50 or so more seats. The BJP organisation in UP is too weak to win more than 30 seats (and in a rural state like UP, organisation is everything), and it needs an year or two of rebuilding before it returns to its state of the late 90s; in Bihar, they need a bit more time to grow in all areas of the state, and in Haryana and Assam, they are just beginning to consolidate their own bases. In Karnataka and Maharashtra too, there are large areas where the BJP does not really exist at all. However much we may hate it, NIKu's organisation is, at the moment, still stronger than the BJP organisation on the ground in Bihar. Brutally put, the BJP organisation in many states has been badly weakened by several years of aimless drift, bleeding of leaders, hamstringing alliances, and just plain apathy by the D4 leadership that even Modi needs a bit of time to rejuvenate the BJP organisation. He is beginning to right the ship, but the BJP's organic growth is just beginning to blossom. An year or two is needed before the BJP is fully fit to fight elections in all the states where it has a decent presence itself, and make itself present in areas where it has no strength at the moment.

The last 50 seats will prove preternaturally hard to get for Modi. No one from Kerala will ally with the BJP, and the other three (Jayalalitha, Naveen Patnaik, and Mamata Banerjee) will be all but impossible to get. The most likely to support Modi is JJ, and even she is extremely fickle and hard to stomach. It is unlikely that either Naveen Patnaik or Mamata Banerjee will support NaMo. Both of them have their own compulsions. For Mamata, it is the 25% Muslims of Bengal. For Naveen Patnaik, it is likely that this time, it will be the BJP that will be the principal opposition in the state. The Congress is withering fast in Odisha, and a 4-0 defeat will shatter the organisation in the state. By next April, I suspect it will be the BJP that will be the main opposition in Odisha, particularly if Mahameghabahan Aira Kharabela Swain returns, and the BJP allies with Pyarimohan Mohapatra.

No matter how you slice it, the next government is likely to be headed by another Gujral, or we will have a hung Parliament with no one able to form the government (everyone opposes BJP, but they also oppose each other).

Consequently, for the BJP, what is vital in this election is to establish themselves as party of some consequence in the zero MP states. With some luck and focus, the BJP may be able to steal a seat or two apiece in Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Orissa (I have no idea at all about WB). This is extremely important because the BJP needs to enter these four states on its own strength and establish itself as a party to vote for. Alliances are less important, and if at all they happen, they are a bonus. But if the BJP can get 15% of the vote in Tamil Nadu, and Kerala, and about 20-25% of the vote in Odisha (with one or two seats in all the three states apiece), the BJP will have bettered its 1998 tally, but with the 1996 momentum behind it. And in the elections that will come within the next two years (depend on it - no Third Front government will last more than 2 years), the BJP can expect to win on its own, with its ideological allies, getting more than 272 seats.

At least, this is my reading.

[VikramS]

It is likely that AK may lose in his seat.

If AK loses, what will happen to AAP MLAs? For Sale?

[jamwal]

http://174.141.233.6/boothnew/constuencydetail.aspx

Live voting stats from Delhi. Voter turnout seems to be bit low

[svenkat]

Joel classic is SP theme song.If Samajwadi Party circles are to be believed, the idea of using Billy Joel's We Didn't Start the Fire as the theme song for Mulayam Singh Yadav's 2014 campaign came from son Akhilesh Yadav. The young UP chief minister is a selfconfessed rock fan who loves everything from hard rock to heavy metal and has been an aficionado since his college days.Of course, virtually none in the SP have heard the song. But Mulayam was obviously tickled by the idea of integrating his Socialist message with a popular rock song released in 1989. Joel's song contains rapid-fire allusions to 100 headline events between 1949 and 1989.
The SP jingle, on the other hand, is loaded with references to major Socialist leaders like Ram Manohar Lohia and Jayprakash Narayan. The lyrics were penned by Uday Pratap who is currently culture minister in Akhilesh's government in Lucknow. Wonder what Billy Joel would have said to the reworked version of his iconic song. Meanwhile, SP sources are mum on the price the party paid to buy the rights to the music.

Akhilesh studied in Banglore.Some of BRF mullahs were his college mates.We need people like akhilesh,tejas(lalus son) in BJPs side.If we can disenfranchise muslims ,we solve so many problems.BD problem is solved,we get huge supply of cheap labour,automatic promotion of dalits,end to muslim appeasement,we can stop reservatins.The BJP needs to talk to ahirs,kurmis,jats,meenas,gujars.End reservation once and for all.Give psychological boost to dalits.

When one reads Virendrajis post on rajasthan elections,it is clear the jat-rajput-gujar-meena conflicts are corrosive,moraly degrading to Hindu society.We cant stop electoral mobilisation.But we can end reservation and muslim role in electoral arithmetic.

[panduranghari]

If AAP effectively spoils it for BJP, there is a real danger of the Modi Wave being severely blunted on a mass scale, as millions of Modi supporters everywhere else lose faith in his ability to form a national government.

That may not be a bad thing essentially. If economic turmoil dents Modis second chance it will be a bigger calamity.

[Dilbu]

Everybody loves their Pakistan. Some mornings I love my Pakistan even more than life itself if I ate too much butter chicken earlier in the night.

[Pratyush]

Am just returning from the pooling station having polled my vote. The booth was empty with little voting. The polling officer had a tblet with an app having voter Id list. She entered my serial number and had was able to determine my name. Once she was satisfied, she pressed enter and recorded my presence at the polling station. The EVM also had a printout for the candidate that I had voted for.

It was a simple and painless process. The police presence was very strong.

[bhargava]

Getting confusing signals from teetar...seems like AAP is indeed punching above its weight

[anmol]

[niran]

Why are people retweeting someone who uses someone else photo
in his profile, and then getting their mundoos in a knot, 42% voters have exercised their rights by 1530 hours
at this rate it will cross 70 by evening unprecedented.