Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

anmol · Post by **anmol** » 04 Dec 2013 21:10

krishnan wrote:who are they ??? they dont even have a website

They do : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RNB_Research
http://www.rnbresearch.com/

They had predicted Cong victory in Punjab: http://www.news24online.com/SP-is-emerg ... 40844.aspx

Their latest poll results: http://news24online.com/bjp-win-in-raja ... 30189.aspx#

Clearly they have tie up with News24(owned by Cong's Rajeev Shukla).

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 04 Dec 2013 21:22

thx CG and nagesh for the replies on exit polls.

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 04 Dec 2013 21:23

I'm not sure about AAP. They may have enough and ally with congress next year to keep "communal" forces at bay.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 04 Dec 2013 21:25

bjp wasted a lot of time in delhi with dropping goel and nationwide, with even choosing modi, they should have fixed both earlier.
ditto with KN - they really need to get cracking fast and get yeddy back asap.

rajithn · Post by **rajithn** » 04 Dec 2013 21:26

There seems to be a great amount of respect for Chanakya's exit poll numbers in the twitter world. Outliers, they are called but seem to have predicted Gujarat and HP very well.

Adrija · Post by **Adrija** » 04 Dec 2013 21:30

Spoke to a few voters in Delhi.....the youth seem to have almost completely voted for the AAP guys..........that is what may be driving the extra-ordinary voter turnout.....

very worrying........and what a complete waste!!

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 04 Dec 2013 21:42

Adrija wrote:Spoke to a few voters in Delhi.....the youth seem to have almost completely voted for the AAP guys..........that is what may be driving the extra-ordinary voter turnout.....

very worrying........and what a complete waste!!

Yeah i've been hearing the same thing. What a waste of a vote. Vote for a guy with stupid topi and jaru to fix the country. BJP wont be capturing delhi it seems.

Update: Just spoke with a cousin of mine. The majority of the youngsters are voting for this micky mouse. He predicts huge win for AAP judging by how people were talking at the booths.

archan · Post by **archan** » 04 Dec 2013 21:55

Guys, at least give it to him for being able to motivate these "youngsters" to come out and vote - something none of the major parties could do. For a first timer, this is still impressive performance (if the predictions are true). Is it his problem that the BJP could not differentiate itself enough from Congress that they would look strikingly different to this demographic?
I texted my siter who lives in Delhi, hoping to hear she voted and voted for the "right" candadate. Well, she said she chose none of the above because all of them suck in her opinion. I said, well you need someone in the office. She was like, whoever comes, things will continue to be as sucky or as good as they currently are. Can't say she is the most perspective of the political observers, but her vote counts the same as any other voter's. I can guess there are probably quite a few such people. Well at least she didn't vote for AAP.

Lilo · Post by **Lilo** » 04 Dec 2013 22:00

^^
AAP had benefited from their "politics for dummies" kind of approach working to ensnare the attention deficit gen.

Their pitch:
AAP in power -> Janlokpal -> Corruption gayab

Almost like the Moov (back pain ointment) jingle.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 04 Dec 2013 22:02

they are cultish. and like all cults they evoke crazy passions.

also speaks volumes of bjp issues, that before modi, 86 yr old advani could not connect with the youth at all. that he continued till then shows the mess the party was in.

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 04 Dec 2013 22:05

A lesson to BJP indeed on how left could capture power on shoulders of Anna's lokpal movement. This is actually victory of Anna ji and backed by huge amount of popular support. Numerous protests against dilli government also occurred.

BJP must learn each and every lesson.

Neilson survey mentions 35 seats for BJP, 15 for con race and 15 for AAP.

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 04 Dec 2013 22:10

pankajs wrote:Rajasthan's message > No work for 4 years and lots of freebies do not win election

Was in Rajasthan this year. Poster on back of state transport bus "Govt spent XXXcrores for haz yatra" with pics of some leader. Wonder what they spend for Haridwar yatra?

member_20292 · Post by **member_20292** » 04 Dec 2013 22:19

JE Menon wrote: We are one of the few countries in the world where people can actually peacefully change governments just by pressing a button, and getting dab of indelible ink on their nails. Jai Hind.

Word.

True . Go east from the USA and North America. Apart from NAmerica and Western Europe and India and 2-3 countries in the far east, the rest of the world has pretty much been under some sort of semi-authoritarian rule with non-free press and compromised institutions of the state.

Lucky us.

God only know why we, being so lucky in terms of system, have been unable to translate that into monetary competitiveness.

disha · Post by **disha** » 04 Dec 2013 22:28

archan wrote:... Well, she said she chose none of the above because all of them suck in her opinion. I said, well you need someone in the office. She was like, whoever comes, things will continue to be as sucky or as good as they currently are. ..

Unfortunate to see voter apathy already set in a key demographic instead of in an older demographic.

AAP did sieze upon an issue and was visible and upfront., so kudos to them for being an agent of change.

At the same time if AAP joins CongIs to create a "secular" front., I will not be surprised if the voter apathy sets in. At the same time AAP should be in government - so that the youngistani's know that it is far more easier to design iFonwa than coming up with a public policy and implementation. At the very least, even if AAP wins big time and forms the government in Delhi (forget the paid media and ford money for a moment)., the control has truly slipped from CongIs! It says a lot about the youth icons Rahul G and Priyanka V.

Is it psychology that when one wants to be negative, they would only look at negative information to reaffirm their negative outlook? For example on this forum itself, the right party supporters are scared of AAP (because they want perfection?) overlooking the following:

1. If BJP wins MP and 36'Garh., that will be a government coming in 3rd time in a row! Think about it, across Guj., MP., 36'Garh - an entire generation of youngistanis will be growing up w/o knowing CongIs.

2. BJP winning Raj and CongI losing Delhi - large swathes of India has truly slipped from the hands of CongIs (Punjab, Guj, Raj, MP, 36'garh, Bihar, UP, Bengal, Orissa).

Just 40 years back - this same swath was in the tight grip of emergency. And now it will be truly Congress-Mukt!

disha · Post by **disha** » 04 Dec 2013 22:31

mahadevbhu wrote: ...Lucky us. God only know why we, being so lucky in terms of system, have been unable to translate that into monetary competitiveness.

Young democracy. Only 70 years. It takes at least 3 generations before democratic foundations take root and within 3 generations we had to fight poverty, disease, famine etc. So it is nothing short of remarkable. Maybe too self-critical and too humble?

And draw an arc from Europe to Australia (ignore Africa)., find out how many countries of the diversity and size of India are truly democratic. Find out how many are truly democratic. Answer - None.

Fact - we are the largest democracy on Earth and that matters.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 04 Dec 2013 22:34

vishvak wrote:A lesson to BJP indeed on how left could capture power on shoulders of Anna's lokpal movement. This is actually victory of Anna ji and backed by huge amount of popular support. Numerous protests against dilli government also occurred.

BJP must learn each and every lesson.

Neilson survey mentions 35 seats for BJP, 15 for con race and 15 for AAP.

Maybe Delhi requires some Left rule after the Loot rule.

disha · Post by **disha** » 04 Dec 2013 22:43

muraliravi wrote:
disha wrote:RM'ji, All this 2 round voting etc is good on paper. ...
Kyun bhai, what is stopping bjp from implementing it at a state level where they are in power

Simple, which one would you prefer now?

1. A legislation that mandates that everybody can see their owned property on a website/walk-in to govt. daftar, with ability to pay online and clear title in 5 mins. and other intangibles like title clarity etc that follows

2. Or a legislation that mandates preferential voting in elections.

And which one will you pick? One that impacts your quality of life *NOW* or *some intangible math mumbo-jumbo" that may provide better governance sometime in future.

Preferential voting is purely academic and discussion on that should happen, however blaming this or that or blow to NaMo does not help.

Again legislation is a second step, first step is effective implementation of existing laws in first place - cross the first step first instead of blaming that somebody did not build the 4th step

Heck only in recent memory, the voter participation is this high. Get that fixed first for elections.

Chandragupta · Post by **Chandragupta** » 04 Dec 2013 22:46

Youngsters are falling for Fordiwal's propaganda right, left & center. I was having a debate with a nerdy AAP guy who went to B school with me, the bugger constantly equated Congress & BJP and did the same equal equal before I called him out & asked him to elaborate & prove. All he could muster was Gadkari and I asked him if Gadkari was ever indicted. The bugger shut shop & ran. Was sharing stupid photos about Fordiwal's heroics. I was very very sad watching a lot of people of my age in my friend list going the AAP way. Silver lining is that 60-70% of these people support Modi too.

member_20292 · Post by **member_20292** » 04 Dec 2013 22:53

Chandragupta wrote:Youngsters are falling for Fordiwal's propaganda right, left & center..

how about; "bharat-rakshak is becoming a cult, with only one common opinion and intolerant of diversity of views" ? rather than "arvind kejriwal is a sham.."

?

is it even possible, that a point of view becomes so common on a forum, that it becomes a dogma, and anything else is anathema to its members?

is it healthy?

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 04 Dec 2013 22:55

BJP will form the government in Delhi. Congress will breakup and it is not difficult to trigger splits if needed and required. One or two short, it will be not a big deal.

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 04 Dec 2013 22:58

Mahadevbhuji, please read the message above yours to see one aspect of AAP phenomenon. It is clear that it has anti incumbency vote ie divided anti incumbency vote from main opposition party BJP.

That leftists have rode on Anna movement to capture power is another point.

So what is independent view of AAP to consider in the first place?

Other than more power in dilli for leftists.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 04 Dec 2013 23:01

Hind Times:

BJP leads in MP, Rajasthan, Chattisgarh and Delhi

But falls short in Delhi.

Chandragupta · Post by **Chandragupta** » 04 Dec 2013 23:05

mahadevbhu wrote:
Chandragupta wrote:Youngsters are falling for Fordiwal's propaganda right, left & center..
how about; "bharat-rakshak is becoming a cult, with only one common opinion and intolerant of diversity of views" ? rather than "arvind kejriwal is a sham.."

?

is it even possible, that a point of view becomes so common on a forum, that it becomes a dogma, and anything else is anathema to its members?

is it healthy?

Dogma? No saar. AAP's views on Kashmir, Indian Armed Forces & Muslim appeasement cannot be seconded on a nationalist platform like BR. I would not call it just a diversity of views when the other side is plain anti national.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 04 Dec 2013 23:08

On results day, no one will care about the drubbing it is going to get but all national channels will be all gaga over AAP. However, BJP can still form government if it falls short by about 4 to 5 seats as we can bet that there will be dissensions from INC ranks.

sudarshan · Post by **sudarshan** » 04 Dec 2013 23:19

Please guys, don't give Mizoram the short shrift. What is happening there? Seems like the state had over 80% polling.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 04 Dec 2013 23:35

sudarshan wrote:Please guys, don't give Mizoram the short shrift. What is happening there? Seems like the state had over 80% polling.

Nobody is giving any body the short shrift. How about gathering the data and pulling it instead of pushing?

I see a pattern where folks come to BRF and just read the news posted or pushed.

I see only some regulars pulling the news by going to sites and posting it here.

If done not to their linking (push folks) they complain and some get warned!!!

India Times 4 hrs ago

BJP to win MP, Rajasthan, Hung Assys in Delhi and Mizoram

....
In Congress-ruled Mizoram, the ruling party is projected to win 19 seats of the total 40 seats. The Mizo National Front (MNF) plus Mizo People's Conference (MPC) is likely to win 14 seats, the Zoram Nationalist Party (ZNP) five seats, and others two seats.

In 2008, the Congress had won 32 seats, MNF plus MPC had won six, and ZNP had won two seats.

Counting of votes will take place Dec 8.

Hung assy in Mizoram means defeat of Congress.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 04 Dec 2013 23:35

mahadevbhu wrote:
Chandragupta wrote:Youngsters are falling for Fordiwal's propaganda right, left & center..
how about; "bharat-rakshak is becoming a cult, with only one common opinion and intolerant of diversity of views" ? rather than "arvind kejriwal is a sham.."

?

is it even possible, that a point of view becomes so common on a forum, that it becomes a dogma, and anything else is anathema to its members?

is it healthy?

I agree with Chandragupta ji on this. There is nothing wrong with another party coming up in India. There is nothing wrong with a party profiting from the anti-incumbency and corruption charges against the government. In politics everybody has the right to make one's case in front of the voters and to strive for political power.

What hurts is that people have fallen for a prophet whose omissions and commissions of supporting elements with a proven record of anti-national behavior are publicly known. And it is not just people but educated youth in India's capital city who have fallen for Hazrat Kejriwal's (pbuh) dog and pony show.

What hurts is that people don't care about anti-national elements as much as they should care.

So yes we can all show tolerance for other views, but it would be uncharacteristic of many here to show such tolerance for either anti-national elements which perpetuate themselves under the burqa of secularism or show tolerance for idiocy which lets people fall for such elements. May be it is intolerant. Then it is intolerant and we are intolerant. But like other cases, this intolerance too comes out of passion, passion for love of desh.

Bharatiyas would simply have to rise o the challenge and take on the new followers of Hazrat Kejriwal and try to show them the other path. That means Bharatiyas would have to infiltrate

and understand the people and their thinking before doing Shuddhi!

sudarshan · Post by **sudarshan** » 04 Dec 2013 23:44

ramana wrote: Nobody is giving any body the short shrift. How about gathering the data and pulling it instead of pushing?

I see a pattern where folks come to BRF and just read the news posted or pushed.

OK, my fault. I should have linked the sites I looked at and then asked my q. Yes, I did read about the hung assembly predictions and some of the opinion polls. The congi tally in the state is expected to go down drastically from last time.

My concern was that everybody's so focused on 4-0 or 3-1 or 2-2, and it's like Mizoram doesn't even register in anybody's mind.

member_20292 · Post by **member_20292** » 04 Dec 2013 23:47

Not.

you present your view, and let kejribal his.

then let the market decide who is better.

sorry to say but the most effective response to kejribl is to get onto the streets of delhi and campaign for whomever you believe in.

johneeG · Post by **johneeG** » 04 Dec 2013 23:48

mahadevbhu wrote:
JE Menon wrote: We are one of the few countries in the world where people can actually peacefully change governments just by pressing a button, and getting dab of indelible ink on their nails. Jai Hind.
Word.

True . Go east from the USA and North America. Apart from NAmerica and Western Europe and India and 2-3 countries in the far east, the rest of the world has pretty much been under some sort of semi-authoritarian rule with non-free press and compromised institutions of the state.

Lucky us.

God only know why we, being so lucky in terms of system, have been unable to translate that into monetary competitiveness.

Dynasty!!!

And that dynasty tried to many times to subvert democracy. It still tries the same. Frankly, while all the celebration of democracy is good, it has not really worked because of the dynasty(and several chota mota dynasties at every level). A lot more democratization needs to happen.

Don't forget that several of the leaders of dhesh have been assassinated or accidented while they were in opposition and while they were in power. People who did not win a single vote have been able to acquire high posts through the backdoor of R-sabha. No, I don't think the stage to celebrate the democracy has arrived.

Link to a post
----
I would be very suprized if AAP really wins double digit seats. Frankly, I think AAP may win 2/3 seats. It will mostly split the votes rather than win the seats.

---
If the kongis lose the 4 elections, then we will see the tremors start in UP and AP. Most probably the sarkaar will fall. If the kongis go down in Mizo also, that will sone pe suhaaga... (then, hopefully the place vacated by the kongis in Mizo will be occupied by an indic party)

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 04 Dec 2013 23:50

mahadevbhu wrote:
Chandragupta wrote:Youngsters are falling for Fordiwal's propaganda right, left & center..
how about; "bharat-rakshak is becoming a cult, with only one common opinion and intolerant of diversity of views" ? rather than "arvind kejriwal is a sham.."

?

is it even possible, that a point of view becomes so common on a forum, that it becomes a dogma, and anything else is anathema to its members?

is it healthy?

if the other pov has validity, it will attract support. but it has to have credence. a forum like brf where average person is older, more educated and hence a harder sell. merely insisting that diversity of views is essential is meaningless because there are some issues where people will go for available evidence. almost all, if not all, members here have a common view on pak. that too comes from a hard nosed understanding of the issue since the forum spends so much time discussing it threadbare. i'd also submit that is healthier than the muddle headed view on the same topic in the lay person. similar will be the state on some (not all) other topics.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 04 Dec 2013 23:51

sudarshan wrote:My concern was that everybody's so focused on 4-0 or 3-1 or 2-2, and it's like Mizoram doesn't even register in anybody's mind.

It should register, but the reason it doesn't is not because the region itself is unimportant but because India's main opposition party which is expected to form the next government in India in 2014, the BJP, does not have any stake in the Mizoram election, and secondly because the non-Congress opposition is to some extent even more radical Christian than the Congress government there speaking out against "Hindu idolatry". So there is also not really a favorite horse in the race.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 04 Dec 2013 23:57

sudarshan wrote:My concern was that everybody's so focused on 4-0 or 3-1 or 2-2, and it's like Mizoram doesn't even register in anybody's mind.

Link

In Congress-ruled Mizoram, the ruling party is projected to win 19 seats of the total 40 seats. The Mizo National Front (MNF) plus Mizo People’s Conference (MPC) is likely to win 14 seats, the Zoram Nationalist Party (ZNP) five seats, and others two seats. In 2008, the Congress had won 32 seats, MNF plus MPC had won six, and ZNP had won two seats. Counting of votes will take place December 8.

kittoo · Post by **kittoo** » 04 Dec 2013 23:59

The sad truth that I got to know because of all this Kejriwal drama is that Indian youth, no matter how educated, are extremely low in their knowledge or understanding of politics and country. They want some miracle solution (which Kejriwal is promising) without knowing or doing anything themselves. The talks with these guys become so frustrating because of lack of knowledge. A few examples-

Youth 1: I am hoping AAP wins Delhi.
Me: Why?
Youth: Because they are good.
Me: No they arent. Nonetheless, what about BJP? Arent they good?
Y1: Yeah, but I am talking about local elections. They arent good there.
Me: Who said? How? Arent BJP governed states demonstrably and factually better governed?
Y1: Are they? I didn't know.
Me: A few examples.
Y1: Oh. Hmm. I guess you are right.
Y1 (after a few hours): I wish AAP wins.
Me: Facepalm.

Another-
Y2: AAP jeet jaaye toh maja aa jaaye.
Me: Why?
Y2: Cause it will like a revolution man.
Me: How? And why would that help?
Y2: It will be change man. A challenger would defeat everyone.
Me: But how are they better?
Y2: At least they will be different.
Me: How? They are just extreme version of Congress. How are they better than BJP?
Y2: Jo bhi ho. We need change man. It will be like a revolution.
Me: Facepalm.

Another (Its not because its related to politics, but because its shows the utter lack of knowledge in Indian youth)-

Y3: Going home to vote? Rajasthan?
Me: Yeah.
Y3: How long does it take by train?
Me: 16 hours.
Y3: Acchha? Thats it? It takes more for Delhi.
Me: Of course. Delhi is farther.
Y3: Really? Isnt Rajasthan farther than Delhi from Mumbai?
Me: No. Rajasthan is south from Delhi, closer to Mumbai.
Y3: Oh I thought Rajasthan was in north of Delhi.
Me: Seriously?
Y3: Yaar woh kaafi dino se map nahi dekha na.
Me: Facepalm.

And these guys are from IIT/IIMs. My FB feed is flooded with my fellow mates from IIMs, posting about AAP and how it has created a revolution and how they are the best thing ever. They have no idea about AAP policies. If I ever try to argue or discuss regarding those, they never reply. Or at best with- toh BJP and Cong ne kya kar liya? They are the same etc. And they will keep posting about AAP. Its like a brainless horde.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 05 Dec 2013 00:06

kittoo wrote:And these guys are from IIT/IIMs. My FB feed is flooded with my fellow mates from IIMs, posting about AAP and how it has created a revolution and how they are the best thing ever. They have no idea about AAP policies. If I ever try to argue or discuss regarding those, they never reply. Or at best with- toh BJP and Cong ne kya kar liya? They are the same etc. And they will keep posting about AAP. Its like a brainless horde.

kittoo ji,
what is your twitter id, if I may ask! Is it okay for BRFites to follow you?

In twitter one does use #AAPtards for them. Actually I think this is a massive failure of ABVP to fish for these guys in time. I think these guys are more influenced by dominant people who just state their mind, cursing Hazrat Kejriwal and praising BJP at the same time. No need to explain, as they may not have the required knowledge and background to process it.

kittoo · Post by **kittoo** » 05 Dec 2013 00:09

RajeshA wrote:
kittoo wrote:And these guys are from IIT/IIMs. My FB feed is flooded with my fellow mates from IIMs, posting about AAP and how it has created a revolution and how they are the best thing ever. They have no idea about AAP policies. If I ever try to argue or discuss regarding those, they never reply. Or at best with- toh BJP and Cong ne kya kar liya? They are the same etc. And they will keep posting about AAP. Its like a brainless horde.

kittoo ji,
what is your twitter id, if I may ask! Is it okay for BRFites to follow you?

In twitter one does use #AAPtards for them. Actually I think this is a massive failure of ABVP to fish for these guys in time.

Its kittoo4202004 RajeshA ji.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 05 Dec 2013 00:10

kittoo, exactly why i said its like a cult and kejriwal is the leader, the honest man, the solution etc.
personally, i think it reflects stupidity of d4 in bjp in not reaching out to the youth in time.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 05 Dec 2013 00:15

kittoo wrote:Its kittoo4202004 RajeshA ji.

Thanks. Following now

SagarAg · Post by **SagarAg** » 05 Dec 2013 00:32

Voter Turnout: 66%

Lilo · Post by **Lilo** » 05 Dec 2013 00:52

RajeshA wrote:Actually I think this is a massive failure of ABVP to fish for these guys in time

ABVP is not fashionable enough to be associated with for the yuppies drowned in MSM's Sikular koolaid.
That's the fact which AAP tapped into to bring yuppie numbers into its fold.

Despite the SM awakening ,after getting into power BJP shud literally OWN the MSM to bring back patriotism (and Bharateeyata) back into fashion.