Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 05 Dec 2013 10:59

11:10 Exit poll of polls shows extraordinary debut for Arvind Kejriwal: Of all exit poll predictions, this one is the most breathtaking. Two post-poll surveys suggest CM Sheila Dikshit, who led Congress to three straight wins in the city, was trailing Arvind Kejriwal of AAP in New Delhi constituency, with BJP's Vijender Gupta snapping at her heels.

According to the exit poll done by ORG for India Today group, Kejriwal, with 36% vote share, was leading in the high-profile constituency. Dikshit, the face of Congress in Delhi, was in second spot with 31%, with BJP's Gupta bringing up the rear with 28% votes.

The ABP News-Nielsen poll, too, said Dikshit may lose to Kejriwal, as AAP was likely to bag all three seats in central Delhi.

The findings mirror the perceived groundswell for AAP as well as the debacle staring at Congress. If the results match the findings, New Delhi constituency will be a great upset for the CM.

source : rediff

kittoo · Post by **kittoo** » 05 Dec 2013 10:59

rohitvats wrote: Please don't pass such ungratuitous remarks about people just because they did not vote for your favorite political party.

If the political party and its apparatus (which includes ABVP) cannot identify with the aspirations of people and clearly deliver a message, then the fault lies with the party and not people. It is all very nice and dandy to talk about 'dharma' and 'Bhartiyata' on an internet forum and talk big - but all this amounts to zilch if the political party cannot ensure that the drain outside my house is covered and I get regular water supply.

Why do you think the social media is filled with supporters of NM who don't necessarily identify with BJP? Why are these English speaking and people with 'western' modern outlook supporting Modi? Why is the BJP expected to do well in urban areas? It is because these people have a stake in the development and they can see first hand the effects of corruption, misgovernance and indecision. They want better lives for themselves and their children. And they somehow feel BJP can do that.

The people who voted for AAP also have similar aspirations and feel they can deliver the goods. If the person can come in, set-up a party out of scratch and go on to win 10-15 seats (conservatively speaking) all within a matter of one-year, than he must have done something right. Whether he is able to deliver or not remains to be seen. But if he delivers a message which hits home to an extent that people come out to vote especially for him, then he has done something which BJP failed to do.

If the co called 'kool-aid' drunk crowd actually moves it butt and comes out to vote in favor of what they see as a viable alternative, it simply goes to show that this 'good-for-nothing' bunch also has aspirations. And believes in something. And if it sees these aspirations being filled (or promises made to the effect), it will vote. And vote in a manner so as to make an impact.

Let me give you a small anecdote:

My maternal family has been staunchly pro-BJP. And in every election has done lot of ground work for BJP. In fact, most of my maternal village WAS pro-BJP. But you know what they did in last state elections? They revolted almost enmasse against sitting BJP CANDIDATE - because he was found to completely aloof to people's requirement save for the community he came from. The whole village (and it is a pretty big and influential village) voted for a Congress candidate. And the tragedy was that this Congress was fielded from outside the area.

Long story short - just calling oneself 'Akhil Bhartiya Vidyarthi Parishad' will not get people's vote. You need to work for same. And ensure you deliver the right message.

This is what NaMo calls- 'family members se naaraaz ho toh ghar hi jala dena' (if you are angry with family members, you will burn the whole house.' How does that make sense? Its the same like asking Ghouri to teach Prithviraj a lesson.
Saar, when you say that Kejri must've done something right, I agree with that. What he has done right is to use his IIT/Anna/IRS tag and to tell everyone that he will solve everything by removing corruption. This is right for his benefit as people have latched on to it. But is it right for the nation and people? I would say no. It is clear by following his politics, reading his manifesto and watching his interviews etc. that this guy is the same left-liberal socialist breed. We have had enough of those. If a person is popular, that really doesnt always mean that he is right.
Edit: I am not saying that BJP could not have done anything better regarding Delhi. They could've done a lot and if they failing to catch the youth's imagination, they are to blame. No doubt about that. I am only arguing about Kejriwal being right just because he is popular.

member_20317 · Post by **member_20317** » 05 Dec 2013 11:00

nageshks wrote: The late surge says it was cadre driven, saar. AAP does not have enough of a cadre to make such a difference. Their dedicated cadre, while fanatical, is still limited in number. The only parties that have enough of a cadre for a late afternoon surge are the Congress, and the BJP. If the Congress did a late surge, we would be hearing about it by now. This surge was more likely led by the BJP.

There is another possible explanation. The cadre of BJP, BSP and AAP all contributed to the late surge, in which case, we cannot arrive at many conclusions.

But, I am hopeful that the late surges we are seeing in all elections in these Assembly elections were caused by a motivated cadre (and this cadre all over the four states belonged to the BJP).

Late surge was only reported and not shown on TV. Which is IMO an important point.

Late surge reports came in from New Delhi and South Delhi areas - Both with congress with good measure of MSM dependency.
You may also be also be over-rating the BJP cadre in the city because Delhi ka munda keeps moving around from one party to other and that includes AAP. The reason so much tele-footage was spend on AAP in the city was because there was a good hope of returns on investments. This is also important because mostly the people sympathetic to AAP were only recent converts from their default status of being sympathetic to Congress.

Though I am hopeful for BJP (in more ways than one, not necessarily a complete win) but since last month or so I have concluded that even the SM is not exactly a NaMo bastion while the hijack of MSM is actually being supported from out of India too.

AAP - the numbers are all over the place and gives meaning to the saying 'Jaaki rahi bhavana jaisi'. The surveys were sham, just run your own filters on their excel sheets, you will know. AAP is all about shaping opinion. MSM support is actually capable of subverting all questions but lets see.

SM - good thing for anti congress guys is that they actually focus on attacking the message which is invariably taken to mean a doot-hatya. OTOH the saboteurs are forced to work on trending things which is basically about defending on what went wrong in the MSM

MSM - the comments section are heavily controlled by the interested parties and a lot of comments come in with the 'all are corrupt because the society is bad and Messiah will save us and true followers of Messiah must question because the BJP is same as Congress' kind of bend.

...............................................

@krishnan ji you changed your location kya? I could not have missed it otherwise. Pls accept my thumbs up for that great line though.

Santosh · Post by **Santosh** » 05 Dec 2013 11:04

rohitvats wrote:It is this labeling of people as 'urban hippie youngsters' that I have a serious issue with.

Now, tell me this - What prevented BJP from sending out a 'simple' message like BJP=Development=anti-corruption? And why are these urban youngsters 'hippie' and 'naive' only when they vote for AAP and not BJP? Are those voting for BJP from different strata of society or somehow more tuned into Indian politics and more mature?

Why were we (including yours truly) on this forum rooting for Narendra Modi as PM candidate? Why is the BJP expected to do well under him by garnering votes from the youth and urban areas (I'm deliberately leaving out rural areas)?

The problem is that of reaching out to people - and making them understand your message and your genuineness in implementing the same. And your message cannot be at cross-purpose to aspirations of the people. NM does both. That is why we identify with him.

If people identify with a new-comer like Kejriwal and are willing to go the extra mile for him (and his message) hoping it will usher change, then it shows that there is a constituency out there which needs to be tapped. And listened to. And their issues addressed.

You can ignore hippie if you don't like it. Hippie = leftist. It is cool to be leftist when you are young because leftists have occupied and brainwashed academia, more so in Delhi. But please do not debate on this point since it is tangential.
The message of developmental politics is old. BJP dropped hindutva and tried India shining in 2004. Did not work in 2004 nor in 2009. Anti corruption movement is new since corruption has taken new heights and people want change. Anna demonstrated that it will attract crowd. The urban youngsters identify with anti corruption movement and Anna. They are naive to equate it with AAP. If new comers are identifying with AAP that means paid media campaign has been successful in creating the image that AAP/Kejriwal = Anti corruption. Plus Delhi BJP has been slow to push their message as has been covered in last page. None of the credit belongs to Kejriwal.
+1 nageshks ji, wouldn't have said it better.

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 05 Dec 2013 11:13

i changed the location text long time back

johneeG · Post by **johneeG** » 05 Dec 2013 11:16

nageshks wrote:
rohitvats wrote: The people who voted for AAP also have similar aspirations and feel they can deliver the goods. If the person can come in, set-up a party out of scratch and go on to win 10-15 seats (conservatively speaking) all within a matter of one-year, than he must have done something right. Whether he is able to deliver or not remains to be seen. But if he delivers a message which hits home to an extent that people come out to vote especially for him, then he has done something which BJP failed to do.

If the co called 'kool-aid' drunk crowd actually moves it butt and comes out to vote in favor of what they see as a viable alternative, it simply goes to show that this 'good-for-nothing' bunch also has aspirations. And believes in something. And if it sees these aspirations being filled (or promises made to the effect), it will vote. And vote in a manner so as to make an impact.
I don't know if the Kejriwal fan club is kool-aid drunk or whatever else, but there is a huge disenchantment with all the existing political parties. The vote going to Kejriwal is more a sign of protest against the BJP and the Congress than any genuine fondness for Kejriwal or his policies - and he is promising to end all corruption. Many of those voting for Kejriwal don't even know who the AAP candidate is. There is a feeling that both national parties have failed the people's expectations. It is not so much that Kejriwal is doing right - he is just tapping into the frustration of the youth. It is more the case that the BJP (and Congress) is doing a lot wrong. Until NaMo came on the scene, there was no one in the BJP leadership worth following. Until Harshvardhan came on the scene a month ago, there was no one worth following in the Delhi BJP. It is into this anarchy that Kejriwal stepped in (that he is himself an anarchist stepping in to try to take the crown in an anarchy is but one of life's bitter ironies). What the youth is saying is that they expect more from the national parties, and it is a truism that the average BJP voter demands a lot more from his MLA/MP/government than the average Congress voter does. Also, Kejriwal's seeming idealism is appealing to younger people (we older folk are a bit too hardened and cynical - we saw the older version of Kejriwal (V P Singh) 25 years ago and we are a bit harder to convince with a campaign against corruption now). And when the national parties fail to deliver, people are trying other alternatives like Kejriwal. It is people going to a quack when all doctors have failed to cure a disease. If BJP gets majority and starts doing things right, the Kejriwals will disappear without a trace. Kejriwal is a symptom of frustration and disillusionment among younger voters, and a hope of change which they see in the idealism he professes. At least, this is my diagnosis.

Exactly my thoughts. The success of fordwal shows the failure of dilli billis in lotus. It shows that if it was left to D4, then the people did not see any difference between lotus & kongis.

Vote to fordwal is a protest against both national parties, it is also a protest against the system. It is to convey that the things are not working and could be much much better. You have to give it to fordwal for saying the right things(like systemic change). And the youth like it. There is always a constituency for such parties.

BTW, guys this experiment was also already performed in AP.

(thelugus have become guinea pigs for all sorts of social and political experiments before they are unleashed on the country). There was a party formed called 'lok satta'. Some allege that the party was facilitated by the yesu reddy. That party also had the same features. It was headed by an erst-while bureaucrat who talked about how all the politicians are simply politicking the issues. He talked about systemic changes. He talked about more democracy(at district level, village level, street level...etc). He talked about decentralization. He talked about proper way to do things. All nice stuff. I mean show me a voter who does not agree with these things!!!

That party was also instrumental in splitting the anti-incumbency votes in AP. The same experiment in now being run in dilli. BTW, I voted for that party in AP elections.

Thats why even when the AAP thingy started, I knew there would be many people who would like this stand.

The difference between lotus and AAP is as follows:
lotus says that they will give a better performance.
AAP says that it will change the way politics is done.
lotus talks about kongi corruption.
AAP says that all politicians are corrupt and the only solution is a systemic one.

No wonder, people are going to like fordwal...especially with all that media coverage and funds. I am sure that if our very own Rahul Mehta saar gets so much coverage in the media, he will be able to surpass the AAP and fordwal in terms of capturing the young minds.

And fordwal was clever enough not to attack the NaMo directly(Commie Bhushan participated in trying to fix NaMo in sex scandal but officially AAP stayed away). In fact, fordwal claimed that AAP can work as a watchdog over lotus. He claimed that Harshvardhan was put in by the lotus because of AAP effect... which is not completely false. So, all this would finds supporters among youngsters(and others too). I don't think these youngsters who have chosen the AAP are necessarily against lotus or bharathiyatha or dharma. Yes, they may definitely be enamoured by the west, particularly Amirkhan.

I think most of these guys are also supporters of NaMo, so that should make it clear that they are not against bharathiyath or dharma. Its just that they did not find the D4 or the dilli lotus particularly different from the kongis. This shows how big the failure of the D4 has been.

I think people are using wrong agruments in trying to convince these people against fordwal. There is, infact, no need to talk of lotus. The need is to expose the fordwal as an anti-national funded by the phoreners and kongis. Fordwal's anti-national commie friends should be exposed. Basically, convey to these supporters that fordwal is merely using corruption as an excuse.

Here is how I would imagine a conversation:
AAP-Supporter: Man, fordwal should win, then this whole political mess will be cleared...
Lotus-guy: ...but, fordwal is bad news yaar.
AAP-supporter: Why?
Lotus-guy: He wants to give away kashmir. He supporters naxalites. He supports terrorists.
AAP-supporter: No, he is against corruption.
lotus-guy: Do you know about B-dheshi immigrants influx in dilli. If the immigration continues at this rate, soon dilli will be dhaka. And fordwal supports it.
AAP-supporter: So what?
lotus-guy: india can't support so many immigrants. Who do you think will lose the jobs and all? And they will get dummy voting cards, then they will decide who will come to power. They will turn dilli also into a B-dhesh. dilli will become a huge slum.
AAP-supporter: But, every other political party is also keeping quite only, no?
lotus-guy: Fordwal's friends want india to give up kashmir. Then, there will be no water for india. And that guy supports all such anti-national things. He is funded by phoreners for this purpose.
supporter: Kashmir can be never given away. I don't think thats possible.
lotus-guy: But, fordwal is trying. Whether he will succeed or not is the question.
supporter: So, even this guy is a waste? Then, might as well not vote to anybody...
lotus-guy: If you don't vote to anyone, then the kongis will come back and loot some more.
supporter: Yaar, this is $^^@$ system....
lotus-guy: Yea, true. ...just vote to someone who can ensure that kongis and fordwal don't come to power.
supporter: lotus? They are just saffron version of kongis.
lotus-guy: You have no choice but to choose the least evil. Atleast, don't give another term to kongis. Because they will think,"if people vote to us even after so much corruption, then maybe the people deserve to be looted. Maybe we are not doing enough corruption." So, don't let the kongis come back to power, no matter what.
supporter: well, the system is %$$)_.
lotus-guy: yep, the kongis ruled for 60 yrs and kept the system deliberately like that.
supporter: really...
lotus-guy: of course, they have rigged the system. Even now, if you vote for the fordwal, it will be advantage to kongis. Eventually, the fordwal and kongis can come together.
supporter: But, they are fighting each other...
lotus-guy: thats all tamasha. After the elections, they will come together and say we came together to save 'secularism'. They will conveniently forget the 'corruption'.
supporter: $%$^^$ system!!!
lotus-guy: blame the kongis man....
supporter: why didn't the lotus change it then?
lotus-guy: as you say, they are slightly better but not completely clean. Also, they only got a small time compared to the kongis. People need to give them more time. And some of the guys may be infiltrated by the kongis. Anyway, NaMo is going to do lot of good.
supporter: what about anna?
lotus-guy: I think he is alright...

member_20317 · Post by **member_20317** » 05 Dec 2013 11:21

krishnan wrote:i changed the location text long time back

That proves it. I am getting old faster than others.

probably why the lady in the next cubicle won't show much interest.

Take care.

niran · Post by **niran** » 05 Dec 2013 11:24

Some masala chai to liven things up
out of the five sure shot AAP winners 4 have sent
in feelers to bhajapa oh! it is just chai biskut onree see since chor chor
bhai bhai so winner winner biraders no?

VikramS · Post by **VikramS** » 05 Dec 2013 11:27

C Voter is saying that it is a dead heat in Delhi.

Since AAP crossed 20%, it is now much more dangerous to NaMo in 2014.

Plans are all set to cut into anti-Congress vote across the country.

Truly sad to see the Indians being manipulated like puppets. I am sick of trying to explain things to people. Cong==BJP canard is so well ingrained in the MSM that even truly smart people (I am talking single digit JEE rankers) with many years under the belt after that, are buying the story.

niran: That AAP MLAs will defect is no surprise. But now get ready for an AAP campaign across the urban areas.

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 05 Dec 2013 11:28

ravi_g wrote:
krishnan wrote:i changed the location text long time back
That proves it. I am getting old faster than others. probably why the lady in the next cubicle won't show much interest.

Take care.

you too

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 05 Dec 2013 11:35

VikramS wrote:C Voter is saying that it is a dead heat in Delhi.

Since AAP crossed 20%, it is now much more dangerous to NaMo in 2014.

Plans are all set to cut into anti-Congress vote across the country.

Truly sad to see the Indians being manipulated like puppets. I am sick of trying to explain things to people. Cong==BJP canard is so well ingrained in the MSM that even truly smart people (I am talking single digit JEE rankers) with many years under the belt after that, are buying the story.

niran: That AAP MLAs will defect is no surprise. But now get ready for an AAP campaign across the urban areas.

You can blame 10 years of Dilli Billi rule for that Congress == BJP thingie. It is only now, after NaMo came on the stage that he is actually shaking up the BJP organisation, and rousing everyone from 10 years slumber. For 10 years, the BJP's organic growth was stunted, and the BJP was simply too much a clone of the Congress, in many ways. I am hopeful that NaMo's appeal will trump the AAP appeal, though.

VikramS · Post by **VikramS** » 05 Dec 2013 11:39

Basically, AAP is being propped up as the "secular" alternative to Congress.

And so those who will not vote for "Congress" but are a bit reluctant to vote for Modi, now have an option of expressing their will.

It is all a game of a few percentage points.

Have to admit, the Congress system is a Master at this game. The blame lies with the BJP too for becoming a me-too party.

kittoo · Post by **kittoo** » 05 Dec 2013 11:42

niran wrote:since moi made me leanings open flies from the congress side of the walls have stopped their whisperings,
so this is onree one side report

last evening by closing time Dilli had around 66% voters exercising their rights, then around 40 minutes to closing time there came a rallying cry
from cadres of bhajapa and basapa (yeah!yeah! i known ye all did not know basapa is contesting too) and most surprisingly SAD, apparently
the turbaned biraderhood had been lazy to move their arses, this resulted in around 200000(ain't a typo) voters queuing up in 800 voting booths before 1700 hours closing time, forcing EC to extend voting to 2130 hours and then in 7 booths to 2200 hours by then no one was left manning the trenches to tabulate the voting percentage, it was 8 degree centigrade yesterday nite in Dilli and who would like to be out in the cold? except those enthusiastic voters of course.
wat happened to Congress and AAP? the natural question
congress had already tucked tail their cadres sipping chai(no pun intended) in their respective enclaves
in AAP HQ there were very many voters complaining about erros in voting list, dunno why they were there in place of the asli complaint desk
AAP were seen balloning in pride tabulating the votes in their kitty by the time they heard of the rallying cry it was too late and AAp had their rug pulled from under their feet, since it is eggjit polls bonaza, let me present one from the under ground
CG== BJP=52 seats
Dilli==BJP=51 seats
MP==BJP=148 seats
Raj==BJP=150 seats
Mizo== hung assembly with congrss no more than 19 seats.

Aapke mooh main hajaar ghee shakkar NIran ji.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 05 Dec 2013 11:54

rohitvats wrote:
RajeshA wrote: Here the problem is indeed one of image, where "Western modernity" in India has forced everything Bharatiya to look "uncool"! Change in this perception is a mid-term plan! However good looking young ladies in one's political corner always help in selling one's politics as well. That is where I think ABVP can concentrate, especially using the issue of women's security.
Please don't pass such ungratuitous remarks about people just because they did not vote for your favorite political party.

I see you are getting a lot of responses already, all of them valid, let me add mine.

While "the pepuul are always right", "janadesh sar ankho par" and all that is nice PC speak for political parties, we not having to live a public life on BRF, have no such compulsions and so we can call a spade a spade.

Why should BJP be blamed when people vote congress/aap. Parties which are poor choices and people who vote for parties which are poor choices should get the blame?

The case often made is , BJP should have convinced people better that they are better or should be much better (being only better is not good enough). I say, that people should do a better job of exercising judgement.

I blame every one who voted congress in 2009 as much as I blame congress. I do not agree that electorate is always right -- its PC speak -- the truth is, if democracy gives rights, it gives duties, and voting based on wrong choices is electorates fault.

My anger is that people who vote right end up paying for people who vote wrong.

====================

Also you want BJP to compete with AAP, BJP is offering a real world practical solution, AAP is selling dope. "Pop the pill and you will be high" -- how do you expect BJP to compete with moronic hyperpopulism of AAP?

Should BJP also jump in the game of "who can be more bizarre" to win this election? AAP has nothing to lose, they are one shot party, if they fail Delhi, which is now looking like it, they are flushed down the toliet.

They are medhank in the gutter, singing in monsoons, all very nice and loud, but basically total faff.

Why am I and others who think like me, amiss in thinking that electorate should not be so Quitya that they cant figure out snake oil from the real stuff ?

This is the 123 deal discussion all over again.

sum · Post by **sum** » 05 Dec 2013 11:56

Not sure if this was satire or a real article:

FOR THE NATION’S SAKE
- The Congress deserves to give itself a second chance

Desperate situations call for desperate measures. Why can the Congress not be bold enough to replace its candidate by one who would be demonstrably a superior campaigner and with a better political sensitivity? The party, for instance, could opt for an aggressive individual like Digvijay Singh, a fierce family loyalist, who has vast experience as chief minister of a large state and has adequate familiarity with the party’s organizational structure. On the other hand, he is known to have many sworn enemies inside the party. Why not, then, agree on the defence minister, A.K. Anthony, who was such a combative Congress chief minister in a state like Kerala for long years, has an extraordinary reputation for probity, is altogether non-controversial and acceptable to all sections of the party?

At least four months still intervene between now and the Lok Sabha ballot. This is enough time for the general political mood to change. The Congress, for the sake of the nation, owes it to itself to give itself a second chance.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 05 Dec 2013 11:58

VikramS wrote:Basically, AAP is being propped up as the "secular" alternative to Congress.

And so those who will not vote for "Congress" but are a bit reluctant to vote for Modi, now have an option of expressing their will.

It is all a game of a few percentage points.

Have to admit, the Congress system is a Master at this game. The blame lies with the BJP too for becoming a me-too party.

Look - all this hand wringing apart, there will always be a constituency for the left liberal, and they will capture a part of the mindshare of the youth (younger people tend to have more idealistic visions) and the educated with leftist inclinations. The death of the Communists had left that group voting for the Congress for a few years now. They have found a new home in the AAP. This is only to be expected. The only thing that the BJP can do is project clean and honest leaders with a clear vision (like Harshvardhan) at state levels and have a vibrant leadership led by people like NaMo. This will cut down the bleeding in the BJP. But you can never aspire for the entire anti-Congress voteshare, even among the youth or the educated class. It is a bit too much to hope for.

M Joshi · Post by **M Joshi** » 05 Dec 2013 12:06

rohitvats wrote:
It is this labeling of people as 'urban hippie youngsters' that I have a serious issue with.

Now, tell me this - What prevented BJP from sending out a 'simple' message like BJP=Development=anti-corruption

When AAP is falsely bloated by MSM 24x7 as holy-crusaders of some sought, this "yuppy" crowd is bound to get affected by this non-sop propaganda.

How come Kejri as a new-comer in a state assembly election got 24x7 coverage, more that BJP or almost equal to or more than NAMO, a leader of national stature & 3 times CM?

The message that AAP=anti-corruption was given by Kejri but spread by MSM non-stop for the last 4-6 months. In every debate you'd see a BJP spokesperson, a Congress spokesperson, a "neutral' journalist & an AAP spokesperson, even on debates not remotly related to Delhi!!
DID anyone see any spokesperson from BSP, JDU, SS, Akalis, TDP, AIADMK, TMC, SP, RJD or other independents? Why the views of a new comer party in a state assembly elections so important to be broadcasted on National TV on debates related to national issues?
TO any person it is clear that AAP was given waaaay more coverage than their worth & that is what spread their message of anti-corruption.

People believe only what they see & they were made to see AAP as the savior. Period.

rohitv · Post by **rohitv** » 05 Dec 2013 12:11

niran wrote: CG== BJP=52 seats
Dilli==BJP=51 seats
MP==BJP=148 seats
Raj==BJP=150 seats
Mizo== hung assembly with congrss no more than 19 seats.

Ghee-shakkar

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 05 Dec 2013 12:19

This could be the moment Priyanka V is launched to counter the anti-incumbency against RaGa?
Is the BJP prepared for such last minute tactics?

Sri · Post by **Sri** » 05 Dec 2013 12:26

This is what my collogue in Delhi told me.

In the morning it definitely seemed like AAP was way ahead. They did get a lot of voters out between 8:30 and 11 am. There was also surge in congress tables between 9 and 10 am. Rather BJP volunteers were heavily out numbering the people in front on their tables (people go to party tables to confirm their name in roles before standing in line. BJP confirms their core voters whether or not there name is on list weeks in advance). There was a call from BJP control room to go door to door again. But around 12 things began to change. according him BJP booth guys had told their voters that after 12 as lines will be smaller. By 2 o clock Congress and AAP guys (after lunch) had no work and they basically were loitering around. But most BJP workers had to skip lunch as the surge was steadily increasing. By 5 o clock the surge was Tsunami (but according him by this time BJP guys stopped looking at voter list and he is not sure if this was BJP only surge as people tried to confirm their name in electoral roles on all tables). This saw BJP poll representatives from all constituencies making a bee line to Delhi Election commission.

On ground BJP and BSP were very well prepared with multiple copies of voter list in color coded fashion. BJP guys only focused on making sure their core voters (a tick mark for core voter and a cross for core voter who has voted) were bought to the polling booth.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 05 Dec 2013 12:27

krishnan wrote:
11:10 Exit poll of polls shows extraordinary debut for Arvind Kejriwal: Of all exit poll predictions, this one is the most breathtaking. Two post-poll surveys suggest CM Sheila Dikshit, who led Congress to three straight wins in the city, was trailing Arvind Kejriwal of AAP in New Delhi constituency, with BJP's Vijender Gupta snapping at her heels.

According to the exit poll done by ORG for India Today group, Kejriwal, with 36% vote share, was leading in the high-profile constituency. Dikshit, the face of Congress in Delhi, was in second spot with 31%, with BJP's Gupta bringing up the rear with 28% votes.

The ABP News-Nielsen poll, too, said Dikshit may lose to Kejriwal, as AAP was likely to bag all three seats in central Delhi.

The findings mirror the perceived groundswell for AAP as well as the debacle staring at Congress. If the results match the findings, New Delhi constituency will be a great upset for the CM.
source : rediff

Saar last nite, I do not remember the station, did mention that voting before 1 pm did favor AAP but after 1 PM they started loosing the momentum.
Now if most of the super exited AAP supporters turned up early, the late surge is likely to benefit the BJP.

Altair · Post by **Altair** » 05 Dec 2013 12:40

Saar last nite, I do not remember the station, did mention that voting before 1 pm did favor AAP but after 1 PM they started loosing the momentum.
Now if most of the super exited AAP supporters turned up early, the late surge is likely to benefit the BJP.

That is correct. All the early voters were most probably AAP. Voting did go till 9:30 PM in some areas. These could benefit BJP or Congress. We would know only on 8th. The late surge is the differentiator. Fingers crossed.

niran · Post by **niran** » 05 Dec 2013 12:43

Sri wrote:This is what my collogue in Delhi told me.

In the morning it definitely seemed like AAP was way ahead. They did get a lot of voters out between 8:30 and 11 am. There was also surge in congress tables between 9 and 10 am. Rather BJP volunteers were heavily out numbering the people in front on their tables (people go to party tables to confirm their name in roles before standing in line. BJP confirms their core voters whether or not there name is on list weeks in advance). There was a call from BJP control room to go door to door again. But around 12 things began to change. according him BJP booth guys had told their voters that after 12 as lines will be smaller. By 2 o clock Congress and AAP guys (after lunch) had no work and they basically were loitering around. But most BJP workers had to skip lunch as the surge was steadily increasing. By 5 o clock the surge was Tsunami (but according him by this time BJP guys stopped looking at voter list and he is not sure if this was BJP only surge as people tried to confirm their name in electoral roles on all tables). This saw BJP poll representatives from all constituencies making a bee line to Delhi Election commission.

On ground BJP and BSP were very well prepared with multiple copies of voter list in color coded fashion. BJP guys only focused on making sure their core voters (a tick mark for core voter and a cross for core voter who has voted) were bought to the polling booth.

your source is correct, the late surge astounded even those who made the call, i show Bhajapa getting around 49% votes, with congress and AAp neck and neck at 13% and 15% respectively while Basapa constant WRT to 2008 at 20%.

i also show MP to have been almost lost thanks to SSC & company, it took national leadership, fringe leaderships and NaMo 5 rallies day
on average to get into hattrick chance, inspite of all these there still remain one kadawar neta from Bundelkhand who did not see himself fit to perform election prachar, how i wish i had the powers of Mahadev for just one moment i would have made him lose even his guarantee money and some whatishisname IND win.

VikramS · Post by **VikramS** » 05 Dec 2013 12:43

Regarding AAP, I too felt that given their vote base (1st time voters), the enthu to vote as early as possible would have been a factor. I guess they havent yet learnt the "Vote Early, Vote Often" dictum

Arjun · Post by **Arjun** » 05 Dec 2013 13:13

Frankly, there's nothing wrong in believing that it is broadly the leftists and the clueless that have voted for the AAP. That is not to be confused with absolving the BJP's responsibility to provide clues to the clueless.

Leftists are a lost cause in any case, and my guess is many would have taken the migratory route from CPM to Congress to AAP.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 05 Dec 2013 13:17

methinks the vast number of govt employees in delhi might sense better benefits under AAP because he is a proponent of "big govt" as in govt sponsored freebies for all (and a huge machinery to administer and manage these on discretionary basis ofcourse with the kshatrap being the final decision maker).....vs the BJP whose rule they had already seen in delhi - not bad, but not that great either.
great amts of money + relative newbies in charge always present opportunities for (wo)men of ambition and drive to create vast fortunes as the tides shift.
there are also huge nos of NGO "system" in delhi with a pyramid of beneficiaries under them who would no doubt love the AAP and its social posturing.

congis stand discredited but who is say the party of skimming from public funds is over.

the really poor (urban jhopri clusters) might take blankets and daru from congress but vote AAP for perceived "new deal" benefits ..... being new the AAP would be obligated to announce some grand new benefits programs.

the numbers above dwarf the wealthy urbane south delhi "iit trained" types who want a IIM/IIT alumni in charge to solve all the country's problems

rajithn · Post by **rajithn** » 05 Dec 2013 13:21

A grab of all the polls.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 869114.cms

I wanted to copy paste just the image within the link but dont know how.

Chanakya as always seem to be an outlier in their predictions.

Lilo · Post by **Lilo** » 05 Dec 2013 13:29

^^

Ranjithn ji,
Click quote button on my post to see how I did it.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 05 Dec 2013 13:39

To understand how the yuppy crowd is targeted by msm, and constant messaging of BJP is baaad...take a look at this laughable piece in Telegraph. Dont vote for BJP because Taliban will attack...because BJP has mad yindutva zealots...

Similar stuff is put out 24/7 by all media channels and it does brainwash people into thinking BJP= bad/uncool/anti-pubs bla-di-bla...

Plus BJP itself sat on its haunches under LKA and co, and allowed itself to be attacked and become a whipping post.

http://www.telegraphindia.com/1131205/j ... UqABh6V0Vz

The circumstances would, of course, be altogether different in case the BJP, perhaps even to its own surprise, were to win an absolute majority.
This is precisely where uncertainties cloud the contours of development the country might experience over the next few years. The BJP carries quite a few pieces of uncomfortable baggage. The capture of power by it could be festive season for the mad-fringe Hindutva zealots, who would be quite capable of creating situations that scare considerable sections of the minority community. In any event, the coming of power by a party that propagates religious activism in the world’s largest democracy is bound to attract some international attention. The Islamic world, the Taliban in particular, would sit up. The Taliban have already established a major presence in Pakistan. The government there, despite all the economic and military sustenance it receives from the United States of America — or perhaps directly on account of such support — is in no position to prevent the growing Taliban infiltration into the portals of the country’s civil administration as well as defence establishment. The harsh reality can no longer be blinked at: the Pakistan authorities have to humour the Americans and, side by side, the Islamic militants as well. The Taliban have a long litany of grouses against New Delhi. They disapprove of this country’s submissiveness to the US. They take a dire view of the alleged persecution of Muslims in India in the name of countering terrorism, as also the gross excesses committed by the Indian Army in Jammu and Kashmir. Should the Taliban want to use Pakistan as base to harass India, there would be little effective resistance from within. Many observers would actually link the sudden intensification of shelling across the Line of Control from the Pakistan side to this disturbing development.

Once we become the target of the Taliban, it would be the dawn of a dauntingly different experience — goodbye to tranquillity for, who knows, quite a few decades. All past co-ordinates guiding decision-making would fall by the wayside, forcing strategy planners in New Delhi to redo their arithmetic almost continuously.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 05 Dec 2013 13:42

in delhi I would say the vast number of jhuggi dwellers and govt servants are more of a factor that the urban beer pub /single malt crowd who are either vaguely "modern" or else highly socialist. however a good number actually live in noida and gurgaon now and dont vote in delhi elections.

Arjun · Post by **Arjun** » 05 Dec 2013 13:44

The author seems to be hiding behind initials. Who is this "A.M" who's written the piece in the Telegraph ?

sum · Post by **sum** » 05 Dec 2013 13:47

Amiresh Mishra?
Known friend of BRF!

Arjun · Post by **Arjun** » 05 Dec 2013 14:05

Looks like it is Ashok Mitra

one of India's most respected and committed Marxist economists

jamwal · Post by **jamwal** » 05 Dec 2013 14:16

Many young people don't vote for BJP because of the antics of Bajrang Dal, SHiv Sena goons. Their Talibani mentality on things like Valentines Day, alcohol, dresses etc. is hardly inspiring. Most people think that BJP=BD,SS goons

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 05 Dec 2013 14:18

jamwal wrote:Many young people don't vote for BJP because of the antics of Bajrang Dal, SHiv Sena goons. Their Talibani mentality on things like Valentines Day, alcohol, dresses etc. is hardly inspiring. Most people think that BJP=BD,SS goons

This is true. Ties in with what I've observed in Mumbai. Shiv Sena's anti north-Indian rhetoric is even more hurtful.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 05 Dec 2013 14:23

Thing is when peaceful minorities go on a rampage, as was observed during Azad Maidan or during the attacks on NE in the South, suddenly Bajrang Dal/VHP become useful. Its just that the young people don't even understand how our current system is structured because of which the Bajrang Dal etc exist. Also the propoganda attacks on pubs in Mangalore by Muthalik and co served their purpose. That was a clear aim and it worked.

jamwal · Post by **jamwal** » 05 Dec 2013 14:23

niran wrote:Some masala chai to liven things up
out of the five sure shot AAP winners 4 have sent
in feelers to bhajapa oh! it is just chai biskut onree see since chor chor
bhai bhai so winner winner biraders no?

Can they change parties after elections ?

jamwal · Post by **jamwal** » 05 Dec 2013 14:28

Karan M wrote:Thing is when peaceful minorities go on a rampage, as was observed during Azad Maidan or during the attacks on NE in the South, suddenly Bajrang Dal/VHP become useful. Its just that the young people don't even understand how our current system is structured because of which the Bajrang Dal etc exist.

I know. Bajrang Dal has appeal for rural people. Urban young crowd is far removed from that reality. Freedom of expression is a very important thing. I despise Islamists because of their burqa mentality. Now when semi-illiterate BD, SS goons just barge in to art galleries, movie halls and shops to enforce the same Islamist agenda, they are no better than Talibani Islamists.

If BJP has to increase it's vote share among young voters, it has to understand that what BD, SS do in name of "Hindutva" will not help them. Even right wingers like me are put off by such incidents.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 05 Dec 2013 14:34

jamwal wrote:I know. Bajrang Dal has appeal for rural people. Urban young crowd is far removed from that reality. Freedom of expression is a very important thing. I despise Islamists because of their burqa mentality. Now when semi-illiterate BD, SS goons just barge in to art galleries, movie halls and shops to enforce the same Islamist agenda, they are no better than Talibani Islamists.

If BJP has to increase it's vote share among young voters, it has to understand that what BD, SS do in name of "Hindutva" will not help them. Even right wingers like me are put off by such incidents.

Agreed. By doing all this they play into the oppositions hands by stereotyping themselves. Plus, if there is anything truly objectionable, the BJP and all these other orgs need to learn how to use the system rather than attempting to take the law into their own hands. A court order against something like this is preferable to attacking the exhibit and inconveniencing/angering bystanders and attendees. That is the game our elite media/establishment types play very well. Force should be a matter of last resort against those who use force to cow others.

Adrija · Post by **Adrija** » 05 Dec 2013 15:03

Can they change parties after elections ?

IIRC, as per the Anti-Defection Act, individual MLAs/ MPs cannot, but think the law states that if more than 2/3rd of a party's members in parliament split then it is a split, not defection, and hence allowed (as per amended act, 91st Amendment I think)

so 4 out of 5 would constitute a "split"