Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 06 Dec 2013 19:06

Vinod Sharma ‏@vinod_sharma 35m
Sannata in IBN camp after poring thru post poll figs suggests two things: BJP has won, Cong has got jacked.

Vinod Sharma ‏@vinod_sharma 36m
BJP has won Delhi as per post poll RT @ashutoshibn7: Men are men , and remain men .

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 06 Dec 2013 19:11

jamwal wrote:Nageshks ji

I can't say anything for leftists. They're a lost cause anyway.
My concern is with people who disliked Congress and would have voted for BJP if AAP hype was not there. A lot of educated, non-lefty people I know voted for AAP. Most common logic was to give chance to the new party with a clean image. Only a very small minority must be left leaning among them.

My point is once they see the effect of hung assembly, they will switch back to BJP. It is better Delhi is hung instead of BJP getting affected in 2014 due to this craze.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 06 Dec 2013 19:17

Vivek.Rao-> I dont agree if AAP takes votes and results in a big defeat for BJP, the AAP will be wound up by INC. Hung assembly, AAP will fein support to BJP like Mayawati and destroy from within.

Under no circumstances will AAP tie up with INC before 2014.

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 06 Dec 2013 19:17

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 06 Dec 2013 19:20

RajeshA wrote:If BJP does not get 35 (or 36 seats) in Delhi, then one can be certain that Arvind Kejriwal would be the CM.

All the other secular parties INC, BSP, JDU would be willing to extend their support to the new media and middle class darling, most important objective being to deny Narendra Modi another win, especially in the capital. It would allow the secularists to do a test run for a third front government in the capital.

Even if they get 30-31, they will form the government.

Ashok Sarraff · Post by **Ashok Sarraff** » 06 Dec 2013 19:23

IMO, BJP would form the next govt. in Delhi. Most exit polls give it a near majority. Even if it falls short by a seat or two, there are "others" to fill in and a few AAP MLAs can always be brought to this side.

But, in the very unlikely event that BJP falls short of majority by a huge margin, it should sit out and let Congress and AAP decide what to do. If the two team up, AAP's credibility is gone forever (it will be seen as Congress stooge). But if the two also refuse to form government in alliance with each other, mango-men would get the message that voting for AAP is a complete waste.

To me it seems whatever be the outcome in Delhi, its a win for BJP

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 06 Dec 2013 19:26

vivek.rao wrote:Vinod Sharma ‏@vinod_sharma 35m
Sannata in IBN camp after poring thru post poll figs suggests two things: BJP has won, Cong has got jacked.

Vinod Sharma ‏@vinod_sharma 36m
BJP has won Delhi as per post poll RT @ashutoshibn7: Men are men , and remain men .

AshutoshIBN7 don't seem to realize that hiding corruption won't help all strata of society and will not stop vote for BJP. All strata includes men as well as women.

anmol · Post by **anmol** » 06 Dec 2013 19:34

rohitvats · Post by **rohitvats** » 06 Dec 2013 19:37

RajeshA ji,

It is not my forte to comment on matters related to politics in this country.

I simply have some points and observation which I will share. Please pardon me for not quoting your post as I make these points.

1. I see a tectonic shift happening in the Indian population. And this is happening at both urban and rural levels.

2. On the one hand we have the young and restless who are very conscious of their surroundings and are not easily sold on promises. While we still have some way to go before the effects of contamination in our education system can be cleansed, still these youngsters represent a great hope and aspiration.

Let me use the Indian cricket team for an analogy here - we all know the situation in 80s and 90s and the situation today. The difference is the youth. Youth which is hungry for success, is willing to work hard towards the same and is not afraid of a challenge. But like MS Dhoni, they need a strong leader - with clarity of vision and who can go toe-to-toe with them.

It is this youth who needs to be reached out - and as events in SRCC showed, they themselves are not afraid to reach out and seek options. These youngsters reached out to NM because they wanted to hear him. His ideas and messages. And see for themselves whether he was a leader worth following. Unlike some idiots, they appreciate his rise from humble background to the current level. And god willing, to the chair of PM itself. Because like him, they want opportunity to excel in life and not simply government subsidies. Opportunities which will come only if their is strong leader who can impart good governance and clear decision making.

If the response he got is anything to go by, he has managed to prove himself to them as a leader who they'd be willing to follow.

Same is the case with the crowd on twitter - each and everyone who speaks in favor of NM is in effect throwing his weight behind the message which NM has been giving out. And the hope it brings to country. And by extension themselves. Rather than rely on the cooked up stuff dished out by English MSM, these people can and do seek out knowledge and information. This is what the Congress and other old fogies don't understand - NM does not pay for fake followers. His popularity is courtesy his credentials and not accident of birth.

They are an opportunity waiting to tapped. And not only from electoral perspective but wider revival as well.

That is why people on this forum (including yours truly) wanted NM to be elevated to the PM candidature earlier - so that the message could have gone farther and wider still.

It is my submission that dismissing those youngsters who likely vote for AAP simply as hippies and 'clueless' and other such categorization, we may end up loosing on a big opportunity. I'm not talking about the kind of crowd that inhabits JNU - but first time voters who are as affected by acts of commission and omission of the present government as others.

It is these people we need to reach out to. And engage with.

3. The other change is happening in rural areas is the role of government in the lives of people. And here I use the word rural in broad sense to encompass smaller Tier II and Tier III cities and towns. While it is true that government of the day still controls many levers like reservation to jobs and education, this leverage has decreased over the years.

Today, the youth in semi-urban and rural areas face the same problem. Agriculture simply cannot provide bread to the entire youth population and plus with education, people are looking for other options. Other options which are again a function of good governance. Freebies are OK in short term but cannot bury issues like runaway inflation and slowing economy which cannot provide jobs to the youth.

The aspirations of rural population, especially youth, is in line with his fellow countrymen living in cities.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Based on what I've written above, my observation is that the aspiration(s) of people have moved away from what can be provided for by welfare state. And hence, while they will take the laptops and other freebies, they will still ask you questions about governance and policy.

Aspects like Hinduism or RJB or Article 370 are a matter of faith to only a section of society. Other issues are much larger because they are much nearer staring at the face of people and affect them directly.

Therefore, it is important to reach out these youth and capture their imagination.

NM has done many things correct. Consistency in the message is most important amongst them. BJP needs to ensure they can make this message reach out as wide as possible.

anmol · Post by **anmol** » 06 Dec 2013 19:45

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 06 Dec 2013 19:49

CNN IBN > 70% people do not wasn't INC government back in Delhi

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 06 Dec 2013 20:02

AAP is an extension of Congress. Some on BRF just refuse to see the truth. Kejriwal has people like Yogendra Yadav and other NAC fellows advising him and somehow these people should still be respected. Pathetic.

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 06 Dec 2013 20:10

50% of AAP voters want Modi as PM. Don't be so pessimistic that Indians are so totally dumb as RMji implies. They know the difference between assembly and Delhi elections.

In late 80s, K'taka voted for CONGis at the center and Janata party led by Ramakrishna Hegde at the state when simultaneous elections happened.

rohitvats · Post by **rohitvats** » 06 Dec 2013 20:16

RoyG wrote:AAP is an extension of Congress. Some on BRF just refuse to see the truth. Kejriwal has people like Yogendra Yadav and other NAC fellows advising him and somehow these people should still be respected. Pathetic.

Please keep this self-granted righteousness to yourself.

Apart from the fact that you've not managed to comprehend what people like me are saying, the forum allows everyone to air his views. And if you hold a counter-opinion, please share the same. But that does not mean you can use derogatory adjectives like 'pathetic' to label those on forum who hold contrary views.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 06 Dec 2013 20:16

BJP will win delhi on its own. Worst case, Akalis will give them their 2 seats. Congress will be the 2nd largest, there should be no doubt on this, these exit polls on delhi are very iffy (dont blame them, its very tuf to do an exit poll in a small dense place). AAP for sure wont cross single digits.

johneeG · Post by **johneeG** » 06 Dec 2013 20:17

Saars,
the real question is will the kongi sarkaar survive the election result? Or will it fall? What will be the reaction of the lower kongis & kongi B teams to complete wipe out of the dynasty?

rohitvats · Post by **rohitvats** » 06 Dec 2013 20:18

johneeG wrote:Saars,
the real question is will the kongi sarkaar survive the election result? Or will it fall? What will be the reaction of the lower kongis & kongi B teams to complete wipe out of the dynasty?

They for once will have think beyond using the Dynasty name as the currency to power and actually present a workable governing model to the society.

suryag · Post by **suryag** » 06 Dec 2013 20:20

Not an AAP supporters but know 4 of AAP volunteers who with missionary zeal pulled a lot of votes(mostly middle class) Agree 4 is not a big number but they did plan pretty well in some areas atleast. I think they will dent Bhajpa's chances atleast based on my sample size.

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 06 Dec 2013 20:22

http://www.firstpost.com/politics/exit- ... 66519.html

8.00 pm: Delhi dumps Dikshit, BJP sweeps national capital

The CSDS-CNN-IBN poll is no different and it has predicted a clean majority for the Bharatiya Janata Party, keeping Aam Aadmi Party at an impressive second.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 06 Dec 2013 20:23

CNN IBN > Delhi

63% dissatisfied with UPA (Is this the pointer to the National Urban mood?)
56 % dissatisfied with Delhi gov.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 06 Dec 2013 20:36

CNN IBN > Delhi Vote share

INC 23% (-17.3%)
BJP 33% (-3.3%)
AAP 27% (+27%)

member_23658 · Post by **member_23658** » 06 Dec 2013 20:38

and the numbers from CNN IBN
Cong : 9-17
BJP : 32 - 42
AP : 13-21

member_23658 · Post by **member_23658** » 06 Dec 2013 20:40

others are 1-4, so if that includes the Akalis thenits even better

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 06 Dec 2013 20:41

Simple majority for BJP per these numbers ~ 37 (32-42)

KJo · Post by **KJo** » 06 Dec 2013 20:42

Yes, state elections are an indicator, but in some states people are smart enough to vote locally and nationally in different ways.

Ashok Sarraff · Post by **Ashok Sarraff** » 06 Dec 2013 20:42

Amol.D beat me to it. Even at a minimum of 32, it will be a BJP govt. in Delhi with support of Akali Dal and others. 4-0 to BJP 0-5 to Congress.

Rejoice you internet Hindus!

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 06 Dec 2013 20:43

pankajs wrote:CNN IBN > Delhi Vote share

INC 23% (-17.3%)
BJP 33% (-3.3%)
AAP 27% (+27%)

if this be true, AAP has cannibalized congi votes badly. and with this AAP will likely grow feral and ask the congis "agreement, what agreement?"

member_23658 · Post by **member_23658** » 06 Dec 2013 20:46

Singha wrote:
pankajs wrote:CNN IBN > Delhi Vote share

INC 23% (-17.3%)
BJP 33% (-3.3%)
AAP 27% (+27%)
if this be true, AAP has cannibalized congi votes badly. and with this AAP will likely grow feral and ask the congis "agreement, what agreement?"

they have also take a huge bite from of all places ... BSP. BSP had 14% vote share in 2008 although it did not translate to much votes, its down to 8% this time.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 06 Dec 2013 20:48

Singha wrote:if this be true, AAP has cannibalized congi votes badly. and with this AAP will likely grow feral and ask the congis "agreement, what agreement?"

It did prevent BJP from sweeping Delhi.

member_23658 · Post by **member_23658** » 06 Dec 2013 20:51

apparently more first time voters voted for AAP than BJP according to the CNN IBN Exit polls.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 06 Dec 2013 20:56

What is better for BJP?

Cong : 9 / AAP : 21

OR

Cong : 17 / AAP : 13

Lilo · Post by **Lilo** » 06 Dec 2013 21:04

Singha wrote:
pankajs wrote:CNN IBN > Delhi Vote share

INC 23% (-17.3%)
BJP 33% (-3.3%)
AAP 27% (+27%)
if this be true, AAP has cannibalized congi votes badly. and with this AAP will likely grow feral and ask the congis "agreement, what agreement?"

No Singha ji,
AAP vote share is full of anti-incumbancy votes - if AAP didn't exit would they would have been polled for BJP. With the mess in desh since 2010 those originally floating votes were never of CongI's to begin with.

The problem was the non showing of Spine in BJP dilli gang against dynasty and CongIs for a long period till NM showed up on the national stage. By then the AAP farce has captured for itself a critical mass through the hijacking of Anna and Baba ramdev campaigns.

What could have been a mass of hurtling rocks down a mountain slope uprooting the Congi icons at the frontyards of 10 janpath - is now just a gush of mountain wind which scattered the weaklings , but the strong still retain their H & D vis-à-vis their dilli se rajya onto rest of India.

Dilli result for Bjp is a massive chance missed to buckle the congIs on their knees and show them naked on h&d front vis-à-vis rest of India.

Atri · Post by **Atri** » 06 Dec 2013 21:09

Congress will win Chhattisgarh.. on border..

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 06 Dec 2013 21:13

CNN IBN: 49% for NaMo as PM

sudarshan · Post by **sudarshan** » 06 Dec 2013 21:15

From AAP being perceived as congi B-team, it's likely that congis will be perceived as AAP B-team, if the vote shares are as predicted by CNN-IBN.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 06 Dec 2013 21:16

Sonia to play more proactive role?

Sonia Gandhi, who virtually has taken a backseat, could pitch herself in the forefront again if Congress suffers a "tremor" by a 0-4 verdict against it in the Assembly elections as predicted by exit polls.

The talk in Congress circles is that such a verdict, not counting Mizoram, could lead to other "drastic" changes, party sources said.

member_23658 · Post by **member_23658** » 06 Dec 2013 21:17

whoa ... Yogi yadav on CNN IBN more or less says that AAP will take part in the national elections to some extent. Delhi was just a starting point apparently

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 06 Dec 2013 21:20

rohitvats wrote:
Sanku wrote:I see you are getting a lot of responses already, all of them valid, let me add mine.
All the responses are opinions. Nothing less and nothing more. They do not automatically become valid because you hold a similar view.

Well, I did not say they are facts, or valid, I merely said responses. You seem upset at the vehemence.

Why should BJP be blamed when people vote congress/aap. Parties which are poor choices and people who vote for parties which are poor choices should get the blame? The case often made is , BJP should have convinced people better that they are better or should be much better (being only better is not good enough). I say, that people should do a better job of exercising judgement.
I sure if BJP followed your strategy, they'd be wiped clean from the electoral face of this country.

In case you did not notice, I clearly said that I am indulging in plain speak because this is GDF hain jee. Its important to not confuse PC with truth.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 06 Dec 2013 21:21

That is why I could prefer
Cong : 17 / AAP : 13

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 06 Dec 2013 21:26

Exit polls based on voting up to 13.00 hours. Even if predictions are correct, they are not based on full voting. So what stupidity is this discussion? Aap fraud was losing support for a month and there is no way it will have a surge in the last few days. Particularly after Harshvardhan projection. Modi factor I am sure added votes. So wait for good news in Delhi.

I was worried about Raman Singh. Naxal forces and Ej are supporting mafia.