Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 06 Dec 2013 21:36

Amol.D wrote:whoa ... Yogi yadav on CNN IBN more or less says that AAP will take part in the national elections to some extent. Delhi was just a starting point apparently

Leftists will now do what con race has been doing ie not working for strategic goals and indulge in tactical battles to waste time and resources.

dhruvM · Post by **dhruvM** » 06 Dec 2013 21:41

Atri wrote:Congress will win Chhattisgarh.. on border..

My chaiwallahs (state govt officials who were on election duty) saying BJP will come back, but by the skin of their teeth.

We will loose onlee.

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 06 Dec 2013 21:54

RoyG wrote:AAP is an extension of Congress. Some on BRF just refuse to see the truth. Kejriwal has people like Yogendra Yadav and other NAC fellows advising him and somehow these people should still be respected. Pathetic.

Bhaiyon aur behnon, "Jhaadoo" ko "Haath" me pakadke hi to ye log janata ke paise ki safai karte hain na? Isliye haath aur jhaadoo donon se bachke rehna...hhhhhh (Mr. Modi's characteristic Darth Vader-like wheeze at the end of sentences)

Mr. Modi and the party will make it a 4-0 on Dec 8. The anti-nationals, closet communists, caste-based parties, etc etc will all be defeated.

bhargava · Post by **bhargava** » 06 Dec 2013 21:59

Looking at this Yogi Yaadav talk reminds me of the age-old adage...अति विनयम् धूर्त लक्षणम्

member_20317 · Post by **member_20317** » 06 Dec 2013 22:14

At least 2 pollsters had made predictions based on 1 PM and then a 5 PM data. CVoter was one of them, other one is from ABP people perhaps. But my take is that CVoter is underplaying it. They probably lost the touch in last few elections having been long on BJP.

My bet is that the late surge had both BJP and Congress in it, mostly congress and the loser of that is the AAP. AAP is likely to have been the loser in every political tactic the bigger parties played out. Yogendra Yadav's mutterings betray his frustration on this count. AAP could not even manage to provide food and water to its workers. They are a frustrated lot and they know they have to re-think. But they are upbeat, they think they have forced the issues with the bigger parties. They think they deserve higher TV time because they increase TRPs. Somehow/anyhow they want to cross 10, which is where they feel good about themselves. If they end up with 5 they are going to give up and if its a 2-3 they will actively turn against everybody on the planet. AK can actually start a new religion with these guys.

Oh and BTW I think I may have played a good role in garnering around 7-8 votes who would not have otherwise voted and facilitated 7-8 more who would have voted but could have missed it if something more urgent came along. Also perhaps played a role elsewhere in news-sites. Will try to better that in GE14. Could never get the hang of Teetar or F-book.

---------------------------------

Lilo ji,

unlike any other part of India, Delhi's prosperity is almost guaranteed. And the resultant hubris is a strong distraction. The anti-incumbency is there but so is a world of mesmerizing tricks. Even now, when all of corruption and mismanagement in the country is hosted from Delhi and this situation is well witnessed by people of Delhi, Shiela still looses less than the Congress central leadership. Its like the Mumbai situation after a series of terrorist attacks - Congress won despite the mismanagement of security in Mumbai.

The committed BJP voters cannot really overtake the titillation afforded by a subsidy from the rest of the country. It is better to save your own votes, cultivate them instead of looking into the other man's plate. Make sure these voters stay with you and the other side can never get their act together. And somebodies in BJP are doing that well. In Rajasthan they don't need to speak to anybody still they are speaking around. In Delhi they may still need to speak to AAP and they are doing that. And I am very confident it would be so in MP and Chattisgarh also.

People do not just go from Congress to BJP. They take time looking around before they make their deal with the devil

.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 06 Dec 2013 22:34

ravi_g tussi great ho.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 06 Dec 2013 22:53

Amol.D wrote:apparently more first time voters voted for AAP than BJP according to the CNN IBN Exit polls.

yup, the "youth vote". very promising for the future.

johneeG · Post by **johneeG** » 06 Dec 2013 22:55

ravi_g wrote:
People do not just go from Congress to BJP. They take time looking around before they make their deal with the devil .

This qualifies as a truism.

----
I think the kongi kendra sarkaar will fall within a week after the election results. My prediction: SP/BSP & MPs from AP will pull the rug... and other kongis and kongi Bs will follow suit and dump the eyetalians.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 06 Dec 2013 23:00

the article below is trending high on the Yahoo! US website:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/rupee-gai ... 01596.html

Rupee rallies as BJP leads in exit polls

The rupee rose to a five-week high against the dollar and stocks jumped to near record highs on Thursday as exit polls predicted a strong showing for the key opposition party in recent state elections.

Confirmation of a strong showing by the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) when results are out on Sunday would be seen as bolstering its chances of victory in general elections due by May, according to analysts.

The BJP and its prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi are perceived by many investors in India as being more business-friendly and willing to undertake reforms to tackle an economy growing at its slowest in a decade.

Recent data are signalling the economy may be bottoming out while the current account deficit has shrunk, adding to optimism in Indian markets despite concerns about a potential tapering in the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary stimulus.

"Markets have already been performing well in India on the back of the notion that a BJP government will move forward more aggressively with investment in energy, infrastructure and overall capex," said Sacha Tihanyi, currency strategist at Scotiabank in Hong Kong, discussing a possible BJP victory in elections next year.

Still, opinion and exit polls have a patchy track record in India. Most surveys forecast the wrong outcome in the 2004 general election.

The rupee rose to as high as 61.52 against the dollar, its strongest level since Oct 31. It closed at 61.7525/7625 compared to its 62.05/06 close on Wednesday, giving up some gains on dollar demand from state-run oil refiners.

However, a Reuters poll of analysts showed that the rupee's strength may dissipate soon on concerns of the tapering with the unit weakening to 64 by May.

Bonds rose in early session in tandem with the rupee, but gave later ahead of Friday's auction. The benchmark 10-year yield closed 2 bps higher at 9.11 percent.

"It's a tough call to say whether the gains seen will last. The gains are because of Modi effect and also the Power Grid FPO proceeds. But I think oil companies are buying in the market thus 61.50 saw the protection (for the dollar)," said Paresh Nayar, head of fixed income and currencies at First Rand Bank.

The benchmark Sensex rose as much as 2.2 percent to a session high of 21,165.60 points, approaching a record high of 21,321.53 points hit on November 3. It ended trade 1.2 percent higher.

The strong showing bucked the trend in Asian shares, which continued to be hit by worries of an early drawdown of U.S. stimulus.

Indian markets have steadily recovered ground since a volatile summer that saw the rupee hit a record low against the dollar when fears of an early Fed tapering first surfaced.

Measures taken by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the ruling Congress Party have been seen as having helped that recovery.

Economic data has also turned more favourable, with data this week showing the current account deficit narrowed to 1.2 percent of gross domestic product, the smallest deficit since the June quarter of 2009.

Nonetheless investors see a BJP victory as potentially being more beneficial to markets.

"Based on our discussions with investors, markets are positively inclined towards Mr. Narendra Modi led BJP and less so towards Congress, despite some course correction in policies recently by the latter," UBS said in a 2014 outlook note to clients on Wednesday. (Additional reporting by Abhishek Vishnoi & Swati Bhat; Editing by Rafael Nam & Kim Coghill)

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 06 Dec 2013 23:01

rohitvats ji,

rohitvats wrote:It is my submission that dismissing those youngsters who likely vote for AAP simply as hippies and 'clueless' and other such categorization, we may end up loosing on a big opportunity. I'm not talking about the kind of crowd that inhabits JNU - but first time voters who are as affected by acts of commission and omission of the present government as others.

I agree completely with your post about understanding the aspirations of the youth and engaging them rather than dismissing them or demonizing them with labels.

So I'll just comment on a few points.

rohitvats wrote:Aspects like Hinduism or RJB or Article 370 are a matter of faith to only a section of society. Other issues are much larger because they are much nearer staring at the face of people and affect them directly.

Till about a year back, I was completely neutral on Indian politics with no untoward preference for BJP. In fact I would go as far as saying that the whole civilizational question was not really uppermost in my mind. Things however changed when Sushilkumar Shinde, our honorable Home Minister, started talking about saffron terror. Then it was clear, that the rot was deep, very very deep. But his openness about it helped me achieve a moment of clarity about Indian polity, about Nehruvianism. The whole experience with the Out-of-India Thread allowed me to understand what we as Hindus were fighting for.

I can say with full confidence that a few years ago, I would have been an AAP follower myself.

So when I try to analyze the churning in Indian politics, I am not treating the Aam Aadmi supporter of AAP with hostility. There are many types of AAP voters. According to some claims, 50% of them would be glad to vote for NaMo. I am simply trying to analyze those among the AAP voters who are averse to say BJP and NaMo based on cultural reasons. It wasn't an attempt at using derogatory language for all of them or downplaying the aspirations and idealism of the multitudes of the youth who opted for AAP.

There were many BJP supporters who were making accusations on AAP based on national security or their cultural leanings. All this may not have moved many AAP supporters. That too is understandable as not everybody has gone through the BRF learning process or are those who have had an upbringing which was hardline on security or civilizational issues. And the objections and arguments of Hindutvavadis may not have fallen on ears able to process them.

I personally am not hostile to any Indian just because he or she lacks the wherewithal to think national security oriented or civilizationally protective. He is part of the system of education and media. It's not his or her fault. So one should of course show some tolerance there.

However all this doesn't mean that our criticism of AAP or Arvind Kejriwal should stop, because some people, some youth, have voted for him.

JMTs but mostly I do agree with your sentiments and prescriptions.

Jarita · Post by **Jarita** » 06 Dec 2013 23:07

Atri wrote:Congress will win Chhattisgarh.. on border..

That will be terrible - major missionary target

Jarita · Post by **Jarita** » 06 Dec 2013 23:09

Problem with BJP is that they are so fearful of the secular brigade and perceptions that they have done little to reverse the demographic changes that could drive their votes

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 06 Dec 2013 23:11

Love is in the air ...

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 06 Dec 2013 23:12

Chances are Andhra will not be voting out the secular brigade. They are still hooked onto handouts.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 06 Dec 2013 23:13

Not so fast. Worried. But hopefully Raman Singh will make it.

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 06 Dec 2013 23:15

One has to also find out how deep the rot is. How deep the rat holes are. Scheming against a billion people seems to have been made a choice in terms of political opportunism or territorial takeover (Ganga region demographic takeover) or nuke+terror blackmail or bluffing like leftists or religious exclusivity and so on and so forth.

Worst part is this is hidden and people working for such nefarious powers seem to work as if its okay.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 06 Dec 2013 23:18

RoyG wrote:Chances are Andhra will not be voting out the secular brigade. They are still hooked onto handouts.

25 mp seats are minus congress. Problem is
Jagan mafia. But cheating plan now public. Thus as time goes advantage TDP. Spoken with people and CBN, Modi combination will be powerful both in T and rest of AP.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 06 Dec 2013 23:20

it is not just the "youth" for whom Article 370, etc are "distant things". in India, even grown middle-aged men and women with good career/professional lives usually have a problem connecting to such issues.

so the notion that somehow youth have some special problem which doesn't afflict rest of country is BS.

my one-liner post above was just to make the point that the inherited thinking from the older generation continues even in the "youth" of this generation.

the biggest influencing agent of youth political attitudes is the ideology pattern of the parents or the household they grew up in.

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 06 Dec 2013 23:45

Narayana Rao wrote:
RoyG wrote:Chances are Andhra will not be voting out the secular brigade. They are still hooked onto handouts.
25 mp seats are minus congress. Problem is
Jagan mafia. But cheating plan now public. Thus as time goes advantage TDP. Spoken with people and CBN, Modi combination will be powerful both in T and rest of AP.

Let Telangana go and go to both parts and focus on Growth/Jobs/Governance agenda and TDP/BJP alliance. Hope AP people are smarter than they appear to be for the last 10 years

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 07 Dec 2013 00:39

The problem is the EJ rot is extensive in Andhra. Conversion is rampant and the majority of these christian foot soldiers wont be returning to dharmic fold. There is just too much money involved. I don't see how Modi+TDP can save the day this late in the game.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 07 Dec 2013 01:07

RoyG wrote:The problem is the EJ rot is extensive in Andhra. Conversion is rampant and the majority of these christian foot soldiers wont be returning to dharmic fold. There is just too much money involved. I don't see how Modi+TDP can save the day this late in the game.

By cutting off the money, as a first step and by making Bharatiya Civilizational Studies mandatory for jobs!

sudarshan · Post by **sudarshan** » 07 Dec 2013 01:14

Cut off money flow, you mean. But make it possible for reconverts to SD to keep the money they already got from the EJs for converting to Xtianity. That way, the net effect of EJ proselytization is to achieve a transfer of billions of dollars of US taxpayer money to India, for zero returns. Makes the EJs also think twice in future.

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 07 Dec 2013 01:15

RajeshA,

First we need a dharmic gov at the center. Everything you stated can then proceed. Breaking down the wall of the Andhra fort will be a major victory for our civilization. If we cant get NDA into power, I feel we will cross a point of no return. There is just too much riding on this election.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 07 Dec 2013 01:24

Years ago someone - kgoan I believe - stated exactly the same thing here. Managing the EJ issue is a matter of gaining political control and cutting off the money. It's all about the money. Focus on who's sending it to whom, and cut them off, through laws. If anyone shouts about it from outside, let them. Emotion and hysteria does nothing productive here. Belief in this case, as is the money aiding it, is fungible.

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 07 Dec 2013 02:26

http://www.firstpost.com/politics/exit- ... 71983.html
Exit poll: BJP impresses Delhi Brahmins, Gujjars with AAP

The Lokniti (CSDS)-IBN-The Week post-poll survey conducted in 29 Assembly constituencies and 126 polling stations with a sample size of 2,263 on 4 and 5 December discovered that the BJP has widened the lead over Congress among the Brahmins while AAP is ahead of the BJP within the Punjabi Khatri community. Among the Rajputs, BJP and AAP are moving neck-to-neck while Congress' popularity is on the decline.

If the Vaishyas and Jains are taken into account jointly, the BJP is ahead but AAP is closing in a bit

Be it the Gujjars, Yadavs and Jatavs, AAP is ahead of all other political parties. The BJP is more or less in the second position. While the Muslims are maintaining a diminishing faith on the Congress, the Sikh community has kept the BJP and the Shiromoni Akali Dal ahead of the others. The Brahmins, Jats and big and medium businessmen all voted 45 percent each for the BJP in the Delhi Assembly poll conducted on 4 December.

Among the BJP voters, 39 percent were school and college teachers, another 39 percent from the upper class while 37 percent were college students.
AAP did well among the Punjabi Khatris by getting 38 percent. It also got 33 percent Dalit votes and 32 percent from those highly exposed to media and 30 percent from the upper class. Among the college educated and middle class, 29 percent from each of the communities chose to press the EVMs in favour of AAP.

Among the migrant population, people from Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Punjab, Haryana besides other Hindi speaking states have kept BJP ahead of AAP and Congress.

If the division is made in terms of economic background, 39 percent of the voters preferred BJP ahead of AAP and Congress. In the middle class section, 33 percent supported the BJP while 29 percent voted for AAP and 21 percent to the Congress. The BJP also remained a clear leader in the lower section and poor segment of the society as well, the survey found.

kish · Post by **kish** » 07 Dec 2013 02:45

Seems like it is either a BJP win or a hung assembly

On eve of counting, Chhattisgarh Congress leaders point the finger at Jogi

He has been accused of fielding rebels against senior leaders

With exit polls predicting a BJP win in the Chhattisgarh Assembly elections, senior pradesh Congress leaders, on condition of anonymity, said the former Chief Minister Ajit Jogi had put up strong rebel candidates in at least half a dozen constituencies in a bid to ensure their defeat. And if the Congress loses the election for the third time in a row and the candidates fielded by Mr. Jogi score enough to outvote the official nominees, the leaders will take up the issue with the high command, sources told The Hindu.

But Mr. Jogi refused to comment on the brewing controversy, while PCC chief Charan Das Mahant said in-fighting was not an issue this time and that the Congress would win handsomely.

The anti-Jogi section is furious with the former Chief Minister for allegedly backing his loyalists against Leader of the Opposition Rabindra Chaubey, the former ministers Satyanarayan Sharma and Dhanendra Sahu, State coordinator Bhupesh Baghel, and SC (Satnami) leader Rudra Guru. The sources said the party had received complaints from several other candidates also.

A top State-level leader said Mr Jogi’s aim was to take the support of independents and other smaller parties in case the Congress got close to the halfway mark. For, if a majority of his loyalists did not win, it would be difficult for Mr Jogi to prop up his candidate for the top job, the leader said.

But Mr Jogi won’t comment on the allegations. “We were united and confident of winning this time,” he told The Hindu on the phone from New Delhi.

A top aide said Mr. Jogi had tried his best to stop some of his loyalists from contesting but could not as they were disappointed on being denied ticket.

The senior leaders disagree. Five candidates from the Satnami community were put up in Mr. Chaubey’s constituency to sabotage his chances of winning. “The main rebel, Kishanlal Kurre, was using helicopter and dispensing money like water … the entire Chhattisgarh knows who Mr. Kurre is attached to,” said a senior leader, affirming that he would raise the issue on a national party forum.

The PCC chief has been updated on the growing hostility among his party colleagues. While refusing to accept that the complains against Jogi-planted rebels are a process of preparing a defence in case of a Congress defeat, Mr Mahant said the allegations would be put to rest after Sunday. “Even after minor in-fighting, we will get more than 50 seats [out of 90] and all nitpicking will stop,” he told The Hindu.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 07 Dec 2013 04:12

truly congress is a party of the most "interesting" people. the above makes all the griping about d4 etc look like nothing.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 07 Dec 2013 04:20

Suraj wrote:Years ago someone - kgoan I believe - stated exactly the same thing here. Managing the EJ issue is a matter of gaining political control and cutting off the money. It's all about the money. Focus on who's sending it to whom, and cut them off, through laws. If anyone shouts about it from outside, let them. Emotion and hysteria does nothing productive here. Belief in this case, as is the money aiding it, is fungible.

+1. Most of conversions are being driven by money. Interacting with folks from the lower economic strata makes it clear that their aspirations are sky high, which EJs exploit.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 07 Dec 2013 04:31

RoyG wrote:AAP is an extension of Congress. Some on BRF just refuse to see the truth. Kejriwal has people like Yogendra Yadav and other NAC fellows advising him and somehow these people should still be respected. Pathetic.

that may well be true and likely is true - yy and ak plus bhushan are all leftists. but you are missing the point. those youngsters who support these guys are doing so because they have brought into the stuff that only AAP can "clean" the system and BJP = Congress. So somehow, BJP has to appeal to the youth and get them on their side. calling the youth names wont work and is counterproductive. a way has to be found to expose the leftist types and lack of direction in AAP and also to target the youth segment. swamyg pointed out something correct- remember how you were at that age (late teens to early/mid-20s) and that explains a lot of stuff. a lot of energy which needs to be harnessed, positively.

Arjun · Post by **Arjun** » 07 Dec 2013 06:14

rohitvats wrote:It is my submission that dismissing those youngsters who likely vote for AAP simply as hippies and 'clueless' and other such categorization, we may end up loosing on a big opportunity. I'm not talking about the kind of crowd that inhabits JNU - but first time voters who are as affected by acts of commission and omission of the present government as others.

Rohit Vats ji, nobody is disputing that these youngsters are a critical segment of the community that needs to be engaged with - with the object of converting them to one's side. So, certainly - the BJP and their supporters need to engage with Youngistan and attempt to convert them. That is a 100% given.

The techniques used for the conversion have to be a mix of 'positive' and 'negative' messages - you build up your side and at the same time ensure that the opposing side is seen as 'uncool'. You can think of 'clueless' as a technical term for those who may be idealistic and have their intentions right - but may not have necessarily invested in thinking through the implications of their choices, or the history behind the alternatives available. Terms such as 'clueless' also have a role in the 'negative' messaging I mentioned earlier.

By the way, I don't consider myself to be too much into the heavy Hindutva stuff - so that has absolutely nothing to do with my opinion of AAP.

KJo · Post by **KJo** » 07 Dec 2013 06:34

Conversion is a pet hate of mine. I can't stand someone telling me his religion is better than mine with no proof other than XYZ brophet said so. Conversion is an attack on India to make it a slave of the west/Saudi. This is an important strategic topic.

suryag · Post by **suryag** » 07 Dec 2013 06:48

I would rather prefer that Delhi throws up a hung assembly and all blame falls on AAP. I also want AAP and kongis to join hands to create a Govt, this is the best way to get these guys back into the fold of the right by next year.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 07 Dec 2013 07:23

all 4 bjp is better and big boost.

VikramS · Post by **VikramS** » 07 Dec 2013 08:14

That BJP == Congress non-sense needs to be attacked thoroughly in the Social Media.
And the focus should be purely on governance issues.

And we need articles quoting MG & Ambedkar regarding conversions.

subhamoy.das · Post by **subhamoy.das** » 07 Dec 2013 08:23

BJP stands for empowerment and Congress for appeasement. This simple message needs to go out. All those who wants to get empowered with jobs, skills, roads, electricity should vote for BJP. All those who want to sit back and live on doles should vote for Congress. The youth needs empowerment. They need to get this message clear and loud. BJP should declare 0 tolerance for appeasement.

subhamoy.das · Post by **subhamoy.das** » 07 Dec 2013 08:29

Hung assembly in Delhi will be good rather than a slender majority because that will ensure that AAP is finished in the next poll which will happen soon as Congress will tie the hands of APP from behind. This will even route more votes for NAMO in 2014.

Santosh · Post by **Santosh** » 07 Dec 2013 09:02

^^ +1 Hung assembly with BJP as largest party will be good. Or complete absolute majority with rout of AAP and CongI like IBN is predicting. IN case of Hung assembly, I think AAP will reach out to BJP for external support rather than Congi. That will allow them to maintain their anti-corruption facade in 2014 and also poach BJP's middle class core voters. BJP should not fall for it and just sit in opposition.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 07 Dec 2013 09:10

any scenario in which AAP teams up with INC is good. I want BJP to be single biggest party but still fail to get the majority.

this will push AAP and INC together. people need to see ultimately voting for AAP is same as voting for INC. this can only happen if BJP doesn't get absolute majority.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 07 Dec 2013 09:15

Hung assembly means aap experiment will be carried to all Urban areas where ICN is truggling. AAP will support BJP to try and damage it. If BJP gets majority and AAP overtakes INC, AAP will be wound up by INC. That is the best solution. Hung assembly will create AAP as a SP BSP like UP Political labotory.

Best scenario is for AAP to destroy INC, 2nd Best AAP supporting INC for an unstable slender majority, but I doubt INC will allow their game to played so much in the open before 2014.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 07 Dec 2013 09:19

it's interesting, definitely.

if BJP gets majority, then will INC unleash its hounds on AAP, blaming them for BJP sweep?

if that is a yes, then it might be beneficial for that to happen. but at the same time, I think it is more important for people themselves to come to senses and see that AAP and INC and one and same. I think in long-run that is more beneficial.

but let's see how things go.