Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 08 Dec 2013 15:44

Rahul M wrote:wow, bjp on verge of missing out in both CG and delhi.

from 34 down to 33 in del, AAP up tp 27.

44-43 in CG. who are the 3 others there ?

3 BSP and 1 Independent.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 08 Dec 2013 15:44

worst case is that BJP loses Dilli and CG. Better to prepare for that scenario.

If its 2-1 instead of a hoped for 4-0 then, am sorry to have to say this as a namo fan, but the namo wave can be said to have been less effective that folks like me had hoped for certainly.

It will also mean a 3rd front outside-supported by INC will be the next UPA3.

Like someone said above, its quite clear that all it takes to break anti-incumbency is propping a nominally independent 3rd force for a while (PRP, MNS etc). I think the country really has to go to the dogs before the alarm bells ring and the citizenry wakes up enough to give NM a clear majority. Till then, better to have a 3rd front muddle along. A little depressing but what to do only...

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 08 Dec 2013 15:44

DD Live > CHG

BJP 45
INC 44

BJP will lose wonlee

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 08 Dec 2013 15:46

hmmmm combined total of inc+aap=35

member_20317 · Post by **member_20317** » 08 Dec 2013 15:48

People seek power because power allows one to force issues. Even a minority sarkar in delhi is much better then sitting in opposition and allowing Fordiwal to protect Congress on the sly, taking pot shots at BJP all the while.

My suggestion - inaugurate a lot of projects and force AAP to blame BJP for corruption in a pre-emptive manner. Their pre-emptive moves which they will not be able to resist taking, will expose them. The polarization should be governance vs. government, development vs. cheap entitlements. AAP has no idea on the Desh development ideas and it is important to educate Delhi walas that Electricity at half rate and 35 baalties of 20 ltr each in each home is not the primary job of government. People should get better governance both in economic management and in crime control. Force AAP to actually come out and question BJP on audit issues. BJP should simply get the audit of T&D losses done ASAP and declare its views on how much can be saved in what manner. Then force AAP to try to figure out better ways. Show how important it is to supply water through tankers and how much would be needed to be spend laying water pipes in resettlement colonies. And then actually do declare projects to deliver piped water.

AAP is chillar and treat them as chillar.

Chandragupta · Post by **Chandragupta** » 08 Dec 2013 15:48

The country will deserve what it votes for. If they vote for EJ Maoists, then so be it. We probably need a lesson in blood to actually learn something. We will get a government we deserve.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 08 Dec 2013 15:49

I do hope BJP doesn;t form a minority govt that runs at gun-point with the AAP and INC types fingering the trigger...

Better to go for re-poll. This time, focus on AAP as opponent.

Like someone said on twitter: "Till y'day AAP was underestimated. From Tomorrow, AAP will be overestimated." Only.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 08 Dec 2013 15:49

pankajs can you please give me a link to that DD site?

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 08 Dec 2013 15:52

http://www.ddinews.gov.in/Default.aspx

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 08 Dec 2013 15:53

DD Live > CHG

BJP 46
INC 42

BJP will lose wonlee

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 08 Dec 2013 15:54

pankajs wrote:http://www.ddinews.gov.in/Default.aspx

'Election 2013' link on that site is going to NIC website which stopped updating at 1 PM. Are you watching the video?

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 08 Dec 2013 15:55

Yes sir

a_bharat · Post by **a_bharat** » 08 Dec 2013 15:55

CG: BJP 14 Leading + 37 Won; CONG 4 Leading + 34 Won; BSP 0 + 0; Others: 0 + 1
DL: BJP 5 Leading + 28 Won; AAP 7 Leading + 20 Won; Cong 2 + 6; Others 1 + 1

member_20317 · Post by **member_20317** » 08 Dec 2013 15:56

Last Updated at 4:20 PM On 8/12/2013

Chhattisgarh Result Status
Status Known For 90 out of 90 Constituencies
---------------------Party Won Leading Total
Bahujan Samaj Party 0 2 2
Bharatiya Janata Party 3 42 45
Indian National Congress 3 40 43

NCT of Delhi Result Status
Status Known For 70 out of 70 Constituencies
---------------------Party Won Leading Total
Bharatiya Janata Party 23 9 32
Indian National Congress 5 4 9
Janata Dal (United) 0 1 1
Shiromani Akali Dal 1 0 1
Aam Aadmi Party 16 10 26
Independent 1 0 1

24 seats in Delhi still being counted by EC and BJP ka sanyas being suggested right now. Come on, people have come back from sanyaas to fight this out and BJP supporters wanting sanyaas.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 08 Dec 2013 15:56

pankajs wrote:Yes sir

Thnak you. It is now 47-42 in CHG. BJP will lose onlee.

anmol · Post by **anmol** » 08 Dec 2013 15:57

pankajs wrote:DD Live > CHG

BJP 45
INC 44

BJP will lose wonlee

What is happening :-

a_bharat · Post by **a_bharat** » 08 Dec 2013 15:58

RJ Final: BJP 161; Cong 21

anmol · Post by **anmol** » 08 Dec 2013 15:58

a_bharat wrote:CG: BJP 14 Leading + 37 Won; CONG 4 Leading + 34 Won; BSP 0 + 0; Others: 0 + 1
DL: BJP 5 Leading + 28 Won; AAP 7 Leading + 20 Won; Cong 2 + 6; Others 1 + 1

From where did you get this ?

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 08 Dec 2013 15:59

DD Live > CHG

BJP 48
INC 41

BJP will lose wonlee.

kittoo · Post by **kittoo** » 08 Dec 2013 15:59

a_bharat wrote:RJ Final: BJP 161; Cong 21

Not even in my sweetest dreams I could've imagined this result for Rajasthan. Congress is simply wiped out!

a_bharat · Post by **a_bharat** » 08 Dec 2013 16:01

CG: BJP 10 Leading + 41 Won; CONG 4 Leading + 34 Won; BSP 0 + 0; Others: 0 + 1

@anmol: ETV

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 08 Dec 2013 16:03

I am so confused.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 08 Dec 2013 16:04

Seems to be trending Right in CHG ... BJP will lose wonlee

bhargava · Post by **bhargava** » 08 Dec 2013 16:06

ye counting kab khatm hoga

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 08 Dec 2013 16:06

1 confirmed to BSP in CHG

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 08 Dec 2013 16:06

Malayalam channels are showing 51-38 for BJP in CHG. How can there be so many varieties of results about the same poll count hainji?

NDTV is unnecessarily giving tension onlee.

BJP will lose onlee.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 08 Dec 2013 16:07

Doordarshan News ‏@DDNewsLive 2m

Ram Kumar Yadav of #BSP wins from Chandrapur constituency in #Chattisgarh

a_bharat · Post by **a_bharat** » 08 Dec 2013 16:08

CG: BJP 8 Leading + 42 Won; CONG 3 Leading + 35 Won; BSP 1 + 0; Others: 0 + 1

Arjun · Post by **Arjun** » 08 Dec 2013 16:08

kittoo wrote:Not even in my sweetest dreams I could've imagined this result for Rajasthan. Congress is simply wiped out!

Gehlot had talked grandly about a one-sided result in favor of Congress

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 08 Dec 2013 16:09

Arjun wrote:
kittoo wrote:Not even in my sweetest dreams I could've imagined this result for Rajasthan. Congress is simply wiped out!
Gehlot had talked grandly about a one-sided result in favor of Congress

I was hoping that the Congress would come down to single digits. But oh - well!.

a_bharat · Post by **a_bharat** » 08 Dec 2013 16:10

DL: BJP 4 Leading + 29 Won; AAP 6 Leading + 21 Won; Cong 2 + 6; Others 1 + 1

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 08 Dec 2013 16:10

guys, follow eciresults they are giving 10 min updates.

Chhattisgarh Result Status
Status Known For 90 out of 90 Constituencies
Party Won Leading Total
Bahujan Samaj Party 0 2 2
Bharatiya Janata Party 4 41 45
Indian National Congress 3 40 43

NCT of Delhi Result Status
Status Known For 70 out of 70 Constituencies
Party Won Leading Total
Bharatiya Janata Party 24 8 32
Indian National Congress 6 3 9
Janata Dal (United) 0 1 1
Shiromani Akali Dal 1 0 1
Aam Aadmi Party 16 10 26
Independent 1 0 1

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 08 Dec 2013 16:11

The extent of defeats for mafia are staggering. Win some 30 out of 199 and 8 out 70 after ruling for 15 years and u r chief personally loses. What kind of defeat is this?

KrishG · Post by **KrishG** » 08 Dec 2013 16:11

a_bharat wrote:DL: BJP 4 Leading + 29 Won; AAP 6 Leading + 21 Won; Cong 2 + 6; Others 1 + 1

Is there a way to know the amount by which each candidate is leading?

bhargava · Post by **bhargava** » 08 Dec 2013 16:13

Yes, This is RK Puram for example...http://eciresults.ap.nic.in/ConstituencywiseU0544.htm?ac=44

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 08 Dec 2013 16:13

I'm writing off both CG and Delhi. Its better team namo be prepared for the tough fight than for the easy one where 4-0 gives rise to complacency.

manju · Post by **manju** » 08 Dec 2013 16:15

Does not Kejriwal need to forego one of his assembly seats? If so BJP can potentially get that one in a bye-poll..

member_25682 · Post by **member_25682** » 08 Dec 2013 16:16

dilli gone onleee

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 08 Dec 2013 16:17

It is the PAIDMEDIA which will be used to mislead the middle class and create a hung parliament in 2014

Aam Aadmi Party impact: Age of a real third alternative is here

But what's happening in Delhi is incredible. With the AAP coming in a clear number two and decimating the Congress, it is for the first time since N T Rama Rao led the TDP to an astounding election win in 1983 that a party formed a year ago has done so incredibly well.
And finally, it also means that if strategies are executed well, what the AAP has done in Delhi can be replicated. Movements like Loksatta that have been slogging for years with pretty much the same objectives as the AAP -- bringing in a citizen-led alternative to current political dispensations that are seen as nepotistic and corrupt and which will not change; be citizen-led and democratic in functioning as opposed to dynastic rule, clearly will see more than a bright ray of hope in AAP's showing.

AAP made it big this time primarily thanks to the genius of Arvind Kejriwal, but also because of other factors like cloud computing, which has removed the need for expensive technology equipment to leverage technology and the power of social media. Take cloud computing for instance.

AAP used a solution called VoiceTree which took away the need to set up a massive call centre to make calls to citizens. Remember, political parties have long used recorded messages through cold calls, but that is eerie and perhaps counter-productive. What VoiceTree did was provide the AAP with the power to make any person, anywhere in the world, a volunteer for the party at a very low cost. A volunteer called a toll-free central number and from there, he/she was connected to a random Delhi number. Once connected, the volunteer could make a personalised sales pitch for AAP, a far more powerful spiel than a canned message. And once made, the called number would be moved to a called database so that every volunteer had a fresh citizen to approach.

Then there's analytics. Political parties in India have used analytics for every seat, segment, etc, trying to figure out what works best at a hyper-local level. But analytics technologies didn't come cheap. Today however, thanks to cloud platforms where a user only pays for the service rather than install compute equipment, expensive software, etc, literally anyone can use analytics and transform raw data into information that is valuable. The power of social media has also changed the game. The AAP no longer needed to go after mainstream media to ensure they carried AAP's viewpoints.

The power of social media ensured that mainstream media had to go after AAP or risk losing relevance. As R Jagannathan argued in the Tarun Tejpal case, the power of mainstream media "...has been shattered by the advent of the social media, with its unfettered ability to set its own agenda on its own terms. No longer is it possible for mainstream media to decide what issues to discuss, and what to brush under the carpet..."

Congress needs to be saved from Congressmen

As several analysts have argued, it is Delhi which is more representative of the battle that lies ahead. Despite the Congress’ poor showing, the BJP has face a real fight due to the Aam Aadmi Party. In a majority of the states, the challenge to the BJP is not from the Congress but from various regional parties. The real determinant of what sort of government will emerge in 2014 depends on the numerical strength of the regional parties.

There are two straightforward alternatives that give the BJP and Narendra Modi an overwhelming advantage. One where the BJP has sufficient numbers -- and this would mean anything over 190 or so -- to make sure the government that is formed bears the stamp of Modi.

The second is where the numbers so add up that the only alternative to a Modi-led BJP is a rag-tag coalition that will collapse in a couple of years paving the way for a much stronger showing by a Modi-led BJP. It is for this reason that the Congress cannot sit back and let things take their own course, relying only on the performance of the regional parties to stymie the BJP.

It has to start working now to facilitate a formation that is a practical alternative to Modi. But a coalition where the Congress is an overwhelming presence whether inside the government or outside is doomed from the start -- as the history of the coalitions in the 1990s bears out. Such a coalition would work only if the Congress ends up with a tally of 75 or so -- rather than anything over 100.

This would leave the Congress free to play the role the Left played UPA I, cementing the government from outside with support that is based on a pre-set agenda. The Congress is unlikely to end up with this low a tally, but it must work toward achieving exactly this. Such a goal may sound paradoxical, but consider what this would actually imply on the ground in states such as UP and Bihar.

In UP, there have been several rounds of discussions between the BSP and the Congress over a possible alliance. The sticking point seems to be clear: while the BSP wants an alliance that extends across the country the Congress wants one restricted to UP. The Congress needs to give in and concede seats to the BSP in other states while remaining modest in its demands for seats in UP.

Not only will this strengthen the resistance to Modi in states like MP and Rajasthan, it will also bolster an already strong BSP in UP. Such an approach is required even more so in Bihar where the Congress has to chose between Lalu Yadav and Nitish Kumar. The party backed by the Congress can hope to see a consolidation of Muslim votes behind it, but most of the seats handed over to the Congress in any alliance in Bihar would be a dead loss. Similar arguments extend across several states, and the resulting alliances that result from such concessions can serve as the nucleus for a coalition, even laying down a common minimum agenda for governance.

a_bharat · Post by **a_bharat** » 08 Dec 2013 16:17

CG: BJP 7 Leading + 42 Won; CONG 4 Leading + 35 Won; BSP 0 + 1; Others: 0 + 1
DL: BJP 3 Leading + 30 Won; AAP 7 Leading + 20 Won; Cong 2 + 6; Others 1 + 1