Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Anantha · Post by **Anantha** » 08 Dec 2013 19:13

The Governer has to call the single largest party to form the Govt. It is more likely BJP Govt with abstaining votes from Congis and AAP. Khujli will be a blackmailer not letting proper governance in Delhi

Nitesh · Post by **Nitesh** » 08 Dec 2013 19:14

vishvak wrote:
Nitesh wrote:I think if congress gives a unconditional support to AAP, they will be invited to form the government, and AAP will say we haven't asked for their support win win for both, BJP remains out of power this way
So AAP changed discourse from anti incumbency to usual pseudo secularism.

How important is dilli again wrt nationalist perspective and therefore such change in discourse and changing goalposts by pseudo seculars.

Vishvak saar, just an speculation from my side, and I think there is a strong possibility for this, media will spin it as keeping the saffronists out of power, will voters see this folly or not is the question

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 08 Dec 2013 19:17

kejriwal is not popular here, but i will stick my neck out and congratulate him on the results. it is not an easy feat.

you may call it media support, conparty indirect support, whatever etc etc, but his party managed to attract dedicated cadre (*) and managed to keep them enthused and pumped up throughout a meaningful period of time, canvass voters door to door and getting them to vote for them, and that is to be commended.

bjp missed the boat by not capturing the cadres and voters who went for aap. if they did that, they would have completely blanked con party in delhi.

* - my friend left his cushy itvity manager job for 3 weeks to shack up with strangers in bare bones hotel room. his daily activities were getting a list of voters in a neighborhood and door-to-door canvass, talking to people 8 hrs a day and tracking their status daily in laptops for follow ups and collating this data and assigning cadres to a group of voters in a GOTV type approach. my friend said he was not a novelty and there were hundreds like him who came to delhi from all over the country.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 08 Dec 2013 19:18

Lilo wrote:
CONGRESS HAS WON CHATTISGARH! ANY ATTEMPT BY RAMAN SINGH/CORPORATES TO STEAL PEOPLE'S VERDICT WILL BE MET BY A PEOPLE'S UPRISING!
from AmareshMisra | Dec 08 05:08 am | Retweeted 6 times. | via Twitter for BlackBerry

WE HAVE ALREADY TAKEN OVER BASTAR! BJP/CORPORATES ARE BEING CHASED AWAY AS I TWEET!
from AmareshMisra | Dec 08 05:00 am | Retweeted 2 times. | via Twitter for BlackBerry

RAMAN SINGH STANDS DEFEATED IN CHATTISGARH! STOLEN VERDICT NO PEOPLE'S VERDICT!
from AmareshMisra | Dec 08 04:59 am | Retweeted 1 time. | via Twitter for BlackBerry.

Raman Singh government will not be allowed to function for one day. THIS IS NOT A PEOPLE'S VERDICT. CORPORATES HAVE STOLEN THE VERDICT!

I was given responsibility of 12 Bastar seats. Congress won 8. Last time it won 1. Congress also won 4/6 in Rajnandgaon!
from AmareshMisra | Dec 08 05:41 am | Retweeted 5 times. | via Twitter for BlackBerry
A worm is writhing in pain due to Chattishgarh result.

wish i was on teetar to have some fun at his expense.

nawabs · Post by **nawabs** » 08 Dec 2013 19:20

No alliance, AAP will sit in Opposition: Arvind Kejriwal

http://www.livemint.com/Politics/LAiYyD ... riwal.html

“We will play the role of a constructive opposition and will not seek support from any party to form the government.” AAP has already declared that it is not a Delhi-centric party. “After the Delhi polls, you will see us being more active outside Delhi.... We certainly plan to go nationwide for the Lok Sabha polls,” Kejriwal’s party has said.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 08 Dec 2013 19:21

gus,

no doubt he tapped directly into a lot of middle class angst and played a very canny game. nobody is questioning that or that he has literally fanatical supporters. know a few.

problem is whether he is good for the country or has his head screwed on straight. so far he has merely repeated all of INC talking points about socialism, social justice, minority this that and his fellow travellers are also well known leftists with similar track records.

these things need to be widely disseminated and understood.

otherwise middle class will end up creating another hydra to stifle its own interests like they did with INC.

abhik · Post by **abhik** » 08 Dec 2013 19:22

I heard AAP also contested Rajasthan election, is that true?

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 08 Dec 2013 19:23

IndraD wrote:whole focus of discussion on several channels is kejriwal jadu, even when BJP is largest party even in Delhi. congress is hoping to make an alliance wth AAP. What if there is re election in Delhi? Will AAP emerge single largest party?

not likely. as much as regular people are thought of as ignorant and gullible by us elites (and i say that facetiously

) , when they know what is going on, they make the right decisions.

the 13 day vajpayee govt was brought down by people who thought they will win the re-election, but voters did not fall for that trick and voted bjp back into power.

if there is re-election in delhi, bjp will get more seats and aap and conparty will lose some seats.

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 08 Dec 2013 19:29

Karan M wrote:problem is whether he is good for the country or has his head screwed on straight. so far he has merely repeated all of INC talking points about socialism, social justice, minority this that and his fellow travellers are also well known leftists with similar track records.

these things need to be widely disseminated and understood.

If people think kejriwal is wrong then what have they personally done to spread this message to delhi voters?

simply dissing him in a brf echo chamber does not do anything.

I personally would have liked to see bjp getting a simple majority in delhi. but i am not going to whine about kejriwal denting this wish, because frankly i did not do anything to prevent it.

the way i see it, don't whine if you did not do anything for your team and the other guys beat you. you can whine if you did your part.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 08 Dec 2013 19:32

honestly i want to do an ecg, BP and echo of raj mata at this time. she said congress will declare PM candidate now. lets see who.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 08 Dec 2013 19:36

Harshvardhan on Headlines Today clearly declares he will not seek to form a govt since the numbers are not with him. #Respect

Awesome news. Also indicates comm gap between BJP top leadership (RNS and party) and Delhi state leadership. RNS and AJ maintained till recently that BJP will form govt in Delhi....

Hope Dr HV sticks to his stand. Let re-polls follow a prez rule... let AAP focus its energies on Delhi alone instead of spreading to other metros....

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 08 Dec 2013 19:36

The aap winner from Delhi cantt is a ex nsg vet who got wounded in 26/11 and quit iirc.he lost his hearing.

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 08 Dec 2013 19:39

Shit, so what will happen in Delhi...?

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 08 Dec 2013 19:39

Lessons from AAP can be learnt
but

Wasn't movement by Annaji supported by BJP where BJP leaders avoided to be in limelight.

BJP should think of delivering from leadership position from each front, including NGO space. That doesn't mean giving no space to Annaji or anything like that.

nawabs · Post by **nawabs** » 08 Dec 2013 19:39

Both BJP and AAP say they won't form Gov. So will it be a re-election ?

Chandragupta · Post by **Chandragupta** » 08 Dec 2013 19:41

I think ABVP has failed to effectively engage the youth. I see a trend. I see a lot of Delhi youth, youngsters between 18-28 years of age want to feel empowered & want to have a 'backing'. They want to belong to a power structure or an organization. Constant attacks by MSM have made RSS too uncool & archaic and ABVP seems to have little presence out of campuses. It is about time BJP creates a grassroots organization that empowers the youth specially targeting educated middle class youth.

I also see a latent trend amongst youngsters in Delhi to have a political backing, an ambition to be powerful. Not like becoming a rowdy or a 'bahubali' but they do crave for some weight behind them. AAP provides them with this.

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 08 Dec 2013 19:42

Hari Seldon wrote:Harshvardhan on Headlines Today clearly declares he will not seek to form a govt since the numbers are not with him. #Respect

Awesome news. Also indicates comm gap between BJP top leadership (RNS and party) and Delhi state leadership. RNS and AJ maintained till recently that BJP will form govt in Delhi....

Hope Dr HV sticks to his stand. Let re-polls follow a prez rule... let AAP focus its energies on Delhi alone instead of spreading to other metros....

cadre enthusiasm matters a lot. more than anything else. even if people can be fooled, cadre cannot be fooled. their enthusiasm will more or less accurately reflect results.

if there is a repoll, bjp should snag more as they can keep what they have and successfully target what they missed.

Neela · Post by **Neela** » 08 Dec 2013 19:44

First step - destroy the base of COngress. The platform of secularism ,which COngress relied heavily on, has now started to shake violently. MP & CHG are proofs for that.

AAP's results show that corruption is an issue. It is foolish to deny that. Isn#t it showing what issues worry people?
While it is not what most here in BRF desired, I think we should be happy in which we are heading as a country. The narrative just changed from religion,doles & freebies to development + corruption. This is good for all of us.

Overall, I am happy for today.

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 08 Dec 2013 19:44

Singha wrote:The aap winner from Delhi cantt is a ex nsg vet who got wounded in 26/11 and quit iirc.he lost his hearing.

and he would have won if bjp fielded him. it is on things like this bjp missed out with internal bickering and spending time and energy in dealing with that goel fellow etc.

abhijitm · Post by **abhijitm** » 08 Dec 2013 19:46

BJP must not form gov in Delhi. Let it be the hung parliament or AAP + Cong rule.

sunnyP · Post by **sunnyP** » 08 Dec 2013 19:46

A agree. A stunning and remarkable performance by his party. Without them the BJP would have routed Congress in Delhi. I hope a suitable strategy is found by Modi and co to make sure this doesn't happen again at the General Election.

Gus wrote:kejriwal is not popular here, but i will stick my neck out and congratulate him on the results. it is not an easy feat.

you may call it media support, conparty indirect support, whatever etc etc, but his party managed to attract dedicated cadre (*) and managed to keep them enthused and pumped up throughout a meaningful period of time, canvass voters door to door and getting them to vote for them, and that is to be commended.

bjp missed the boat by not capturing the cadres and voters who went for aap. if they did that, they would have completely blanked con party in delhi.

* - my friend left his cushy itvity manager job for 3 weeks to shack up with strangers in bare bones hotel room. his daily activities were getting a list of voters in a neighborhood and door-to-door canvass, talking to people 8 hrs a day and tracking their status daily in laptops for follow ups and collating this data and assigning cadres to a group of voters in a GOTV type approach. my friend said he was not a novelty and there were hundreds like him who came to delhi from all over the country.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 08 Dec 2013 19:47

Gus wrote:
Singha wrote:The aap winner from Delhi cantt is a ex nsg vet who got wounded in 26/11 and quit iirc.he lost his hearing.
and he would have won if bjp fielded him. it is on things like this bjp missed out with internal bickering and spending time and energy in dealing with that goel fellow etc.

No he would not have won if BJP fielded him. The vote is for AAP == Kejriwal all the way. It is untrue to say otherwise (a lot of people are claiming that) -- the candidates are all dummy, they are completely irrelevant, in most cases people dont even know the candidates.

Same of the AAP cadre, it is all a buzz centred around Kejriwal.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 08 Dec 2013 19:48

Gus wrote:If people think kejriwal is wrong then what have they personally done to spread this message to delhi voters?

simply dissing him in a brf echo chamber does not do anything.

can you lay off the snark when posting? helps to have a decent debate. how do you know what people here have done here or not?
second, if brf is such an echo chamber why are you here, are you so much more so intelligent than the rest of us?
its not a question of dissing kejriwal but pointing out exactly what the issues with him are. if i am wrong somebody will correct me. unlike you, i dont believe brf is an echo chamber and factual mistakes here do get pointed out.

I personally would have liked to see bjp getting a simple majority in delhi. but i am not going to whine about kejriwal denting this wish, because frankly i did not do anything to prevent it.

thats you. if you didn't do anything, thats your problem and your problem alone. if you wish to do something thats upto you as well.

the way i see it, don't whine if you did not do anything for your team and the other guys beat you. you can whine if you did your part.

actually, its not a whine if one makes their own observations about what has happened. its upto you to ignore those posts if they dont fall into your priviliged views of what people must and should not think and how they should express their opinions.

rest of us come here to debate and exhange our points of view. i personally learn a lot from brf - the echo chamber as you describe it. that allows me to put up cogent statements elsewhere.

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 08 Dec 2013 19:51

The rise of AAP is also lack of basic analytical ability in youth. Corruption being passed off as root cause of problems, rather than an effect of bad policies. Something that on the corruption thread i mentioned and argued about 2 years ago. That propped a large section of youngsters who don't go much into why corruption happens, but nod in agreement readily to those loudest in rhetoric against corruption. Engaging in rational meaningful analysis is still largely absent in Indian schools, colleges and cocktail circuits. A lot of rhetoric flows freely as analysis. AAP benefited largely from the absence of such ethics amongst the population.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 08 Dec 2013 19:51

sanku saar,

what do your chaiwala sources (pun intended) say? I do hop bhajpa stays away from the govt formation mudpit at this time since they clearly don't have the numbers.

Fully expect the MSM to tom-tom pAAP as the new messiah and savior and bejeezes resurrected (in fact Rahul Kanwal's overly transparent attempts in this direction are insufferably amaterurish)...

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 08 Dec 2013 19:52

Neela wrote:First step - destroy the base of COngress. The platform of secularism ,which COngress relied heavily on, has now started to shake violently. MP & CHG are proofs for that.

AAP's results show that corruption is an issue. It is foolish to deny that. Isn#t it showing what issues worry people?
While it is not what most here in BRF desired, I think we should be happy in which we are heading as a country. The narrative just changed from religion,doles & freebies to development + corruption. This is good for all of us.

Overall, I am happy for today.

I'm not happy. Congress is succeeding so far in preserving itself through AAP like a latent virus in a cell undergoing mitosis. They dont want to combat corruption. They want to preserve it. They will be a tough challenge and their tentacles will spread to other cities. It should be clear that Congress always knew it was going to lose. Why else would they let Rahul campaign? I think these AAP guys with their NGO lobby will be even more dangerous for the country.

rajithn · Post by **rajithn** » 08 Dec 2013 19:54

Hari Seldon wrote:Harshvardhan on Headlines Today clearly declares he will not seek to form a govt since the numbers are not with him. #Respect

Awesome news. Also indicates comm gap between BJP top leadership (RNS and party) and Delhi state leadership. RNS and AJ maintained till recently that BJP will form govt in Delhi....

Hope Dr HV sticks to his stand. Let re-polls follow a prez rule... let AAP focus its energies on Delhi alone instead of spreading to other metros....

I would agree.

If the good Doctor forms the Government, AAP will do what they were always meant to do. Just be a nuisance and prevent anything from being done. Its easy to sit in the opposition and just yell at everything the administration does while also preventing any good work. And in this they will have the CONgi support. And if the good Doctor does good, then the AAPis will claim credit by saying they were the ones who pushed the Government to do it.

Instead, should let AAP form the Government in Delhi and let the people see how they bring solutions to the myriad problems.

Virendra · Post by **Virendra** » 08 Dec 2013 19:55

The worst beating of INC took place in Rajasthan.
21 seats where the party had never fell below 54-56 in its entire history.
Bjp has concluded the race in fashion with 162 seats.
Kirorilal Meena's recently floated NPP has 4 seat where the leader himself lost to BJP's Diya Kumari.
BSP has 3 and others are 9 where most are independents.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 08 Dec 2013 19:55

Chandragupta wrote:I think ABVP has failed to effectively engage the youth. I see a trend. I see a lot of Delhi youth, youngsters between 18-28 years of age want to feel empowered & want to have a 'backing'. They want to belong to a power structure or an organization. Constant attacks by MSM have made RSS too uncool & archaic and ABVP seems to have little presence out of campuses. It is about time BJP creates a grassroots organization that empowers the youth specially targeting educated middle class youth.

I also see a latent trend amongst youngsters in Delhi to have a political backing, an ambition to be powerful. Not like becoming a rowdy or a 'bahubali' but they do crave for some weight behind them. AAP provides them with this.

exactly the point i was making in an earlier discussion sparked off by jamwals point about youth perception of ABVP etc and how perception matters.

to get the youth on their side, a lot more needs to be done. the rss/abvp/BJP all need to introspect and come up with changes.

the urban demographic is only going to increase and a lot of young, fence sitters are turned off by INC corruption but at the same time dont identify with ABVP and other organizations which have got an image of being aggressive, "not people like us", groups.

AAP is merely a group which exploited this angst for participation to its advantage. tomorrow, it could be anyone else too.

Neela · Post by **Neela** » 08 Dec 2013 20:00

RoyG wrote:
I'm not happy. Congress is succeeding so far in preserving itself through AAP like a latent virus in a cell undergoing mitosis. They dont want to combat corruption. They want to preserve it. They will be a tough challenge and their tentacles will spread to other cities. It should be clear that Congress always knew it was going to lose. Why else would they let Rahul campaign? I think these AAP guys with their NGO lobby will be even more dangerous for the country.

I am no analyst.
But in the long run, AAP is going to need to adapt itself & start thinking about adding more facets to its campaign. Curruption alone will soon become boring. Their stamina will be severely tested outside Delhi since Anna movement was by & large limited to Delhi.

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 08 Dec 2013 20:02

About Fordwaalaa spreading tentacles in other cities, also think of increasing strength of people in cities v/s villages in future : will tilt in favor of cities in time.

For villages, leftists already have Maoists and encounters Chhattisgadh type.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 08 Dec 2013 20:05

rajithn wrote:I would agree.

If the good Doctor forms the Government, AAP will do what they were always meant to do. Just be a nuisance and prevent anything from being done. Its easy to sit in the opposition and just yell at everything the administration does while also preventing any good work. And in this they will have the CONgi support. And if the good Doctor does good, then the AAPis will claim credit by saying they were the ones who pushed the Government to do it.

Instead, should let AAP form the Government in Delhi and let the people see how they bring solutions to the myriad problems.

thing is..there are no easy answers here with the AAP.

if AAP forms the govt, it lends legitimacy to them as a political force. however the plus is as you said, day to day running of state may occupy their attention. but if BJP declines to form the govt, wonder how AAP will manage.

if BJP forms the govt, and is a minority one, it will be a tough call, but AAP will anyways spread to other states.

eitherways, its yet another nuisance for the bjp to deal with, for 2014.

and not a good thing either. urban votes split between BJP and AAP only benefits the INC and regional parties.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 08 Dec 2013 20:06

Virendra wrote:Kirorilal Meena's recently floated NPP has 4 seat where the leader himself lost to BJP's Diya Kumari.

This was a good win! BJP rebel who failed.

sudarshan · Post by **sudarshan** » 08 Dec 2013 20:06

The "late surge against AAP" didn't pan out, looks like. Interesting that the leads numbers when the poll was on were pretty much indicative of the final result.

Rajasthan - yeehaw! Ruling party hands out freebies like no tomorrow, and finds that it really has no "tomorrow" in the state. 80% majority for BJP, with freebies and all. Way to go.

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 08 Dec 2013 20:07

Known for his frank and fearless opinions, Mehta said it's almost inevitable that Narendra Modi will become the next prime minister, and added hastily, "I say this despite being labeled a Congress chamcha (sycophant)." He said Modi's rise is more due to inept leadership of Sonia Gandhi and her son Rahul than his own merit. The veteran editor predicted that Modi's ascendancy to the PM's post would be bad news for English media which has been after him since Gujarat riots. "Mr. Modi is not a man who forgets and forgives. For years, English media, including Outlook (which Mehta edits), has criticised him. So our jobs would be in peril if he becomes PM," he said.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/City ... 046348.cms

Victor · Post by **Victor** » 08 Dec 2013 20:07

All out war against khujli party is a must after hung result and repoll. Plaster photos of him and islamist maulana meeting on sly (to expose khujliwal's communal color), replay tapes showing AAP folks taking bribes (the very thing they claim to oppose), Highlight Anna's opposition and corruption charge against khujliwal (used Anna funds for his own party), wean away few pAAPis, replicate their door-to-door tactics all over Delhi. More NaMo rallies which pAAPis can't replicate easily.

abhijitm · Post by **abhijitm** » 08 Dec 2013 20:08

People may say that AAP is a sign of vibrant democracy. In my opinion it it not. AAP is a bold sign of how fragile our democracy is. Here is an example of people voting a party which has not done enough social activities, no proven record or no ideological basis. It is clearly a product of emotion. It is an example of how in tough times people can easily be manipulated by emotional antics. It takes only 2 years in the history to penetrate democracy where a party which ideally should be doing ground level work and gradually reach the top has been given a mandate to reach the top first and then do the ground work. I am worried.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 08 Dec 2013 20:09

i do think that in delhi, if harshavardhan had been announced earlier, and if Modi had been confirmed as PM ummidwar earlier kicking off his campaign.. it would have made a difference in at least a few seats.

in that sense, its a positive that despite being considered to be in a bad shape, in 4 months, BJP was still able to be the largest party.

but it also shows how badly LKAs posturing badly hurt the BJP by wasting crucial time.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 08 Dec 2013 20:11

Victor wrote:All out war against khujli party is a must after hung result and repoll. Plaster photos of him and islamist maulana meeting on sly (to expose khujliwal's communal color), replay tapes showing AAP folks taking bribes (the very thing they claim to oppose), Highlight Anna's opposition and corruption charge against khujliwal (used Anna funds for his own party), wean away few pAAPis, replicate their door-to-door tactics all over Delhi. More NaMo rallies which pAAPis can't replicate easily.

agreed.

as matter of fact, on social media and elsewhere, you can see all AAP volunteers routinely attacking BJP/Modi.

BJP in contrast seems to have focused onlee on INC. that too, in a limited fashion.

unless AAP is countered, their propaganda will affect folks.

Chandragupta · Post by **Chandragupta** » 08 Dec 2013 20:13

I don't think the youth are with Kejriwal because he has policies & manifestos & agendas that they understand. No. They are with him because it is cool to be on the streets these days. They have seen Tahrir Square on TV & want to do something similar. I'll bet my right hand that they have zilch understanding of realpolitik. I ask an AAP supporter and all he can come up with is 'we will root out corruption, we will do politics with a difference, we will ensure transparency, we will ensure accountability' - all good terms but when asked how, he just scooted and came back with one word - Lokpal.

The youth of this country find it cool to be involved in politics & street revolutions and AAP lets them live this without being uncool & communal. BJP/RSS/ABVP on the other hand is communal & uncouth organization who beat up hapless women in bars. (Not my words, the DDM's)