Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Rahul Mehta · Post by **Rahul Mehta** » 10 Dec 2013 19:46

archan wrote:What happens to a constituency if a MLA resigns?

Election commission will hold by-election within six months after he resigns.

The MLA who resigned can re-contest.

Now given that Delhi has Loksabha elections in may-2014, EC will club delhi assembly by-election with loksabha-may-2014 elections.

Lilo · Post by **Lilo** » 10 Dec 2013 20:14

^ RM ji,
I believe what you advocate as an option lacks precedence in the past - and could be perceived as a mere trick .
Further paid media will have a field day for a whole month.

Why is it a problem if Bjp just returns for the rematch in dilli? , with no change in its core strategy - I.e a promise of delivering good governance which an aspirational Bharat waited and deserved for past 6 decades.

Freebies like electricity / reservations won't sway the voters when the opposing message is coming from a man of conviction like NaMo. Isn't that the takeaway from Rajasthan and chattishgarh poll outcomes..?

I think sAAP "threat" throws a good opportunity for internal housekeeping (especially drop without (mutiny) those who hitherto used to win BJP tickets based on patronage ( as opposed to winnability)). NaMo should do it as much as possible while satisfying alliance partners and certain pockets where vote banks are the only way to victory.
It is a tight rope walk , but isn't it what he is good at (being an exceptional organizer more than anything else).

Let the sAAP-CongI combine morph shape and change colors as much as it wants in these 6 months - some thing which developed based on hype will wilt away as fast as it came about.All these new members with no public service background (similar to sangh) will be akin to the situation where, Every one wants a piece of cake but no one will want to make the effort of baking one.
With regard to volunteers , the sangh parivar has orders of more dedicated selfmotivated (i.e free) volunteers than sAAP-CongI combine can ever expect to field. They till recently lacked a real leader, now they have one don't they ?

Comer · Post by **Comer** » 10 Dec 2013 20:25

Taking Kejriwal seriously and making a hero out of him is a self fulfilling prophecy. Let the right wing people not feed into it. The only way to bust the AAP myth is to mock them. And personally I can't take someone, who likes the ideology of AAP and especially the people behind them, seriously. Typically they are idealistic but naive. I might have been the same at their age but no point indulging them.
My colleague's little brother is still in school, higher secondary. He is very voluble about his support of AAP and Kejriwal on his facebook and his friends are pretty much aligned to his posts as I see them. They are eroding the minds of the next generation, that should be the worry.

Lilo · Post by **Lilo** » 10 Dec 2013 20:31

^^ Paid MSM needs to be brought to heel - all this propagadu driving sAAP,wAAP will automatically attenuate itself to its basal level. For this to happen NaMo must ascend dilli ki gaddi in 2014 first. Till then sAAP-CongI axis is a problem to be tackled by horns.

Altair · Post by **Altair** » 10 Dec 2013 20:37

Lilo wrote:^^ Paid MSM needs to be brought to heel - all this propagadu driving sAAP,wAAP will automatically attenuate itself to its basal level. For this to happen NaMo must ascend dilli ki gaddi in 2014 first. Till then sAAP-CongI axis is a problem to be tackled by horns.

I am not bothered about AK. If we play smart and Intel agencies do their job right, he can be turned to work for NaMo and so will other AAP guys. Guy has ambitions and is young. Lets be patient. We will get our chance.

Comer · Post by **Comer** » 10 Dec 2013 20:38

Lilo true. just flipped English new channels. all of them AAP guys as one of the panel. They are trying to make them the next big hope.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 10 Dec 2013 20:39

Are we reading the AAP wrongly? The more I look at it, the more it looks like a party of NGOs with a left lib mentality. For an indication, just look who their candidates are. A party of professional agitators. This also explains how their other units (read - NGOs in other parts of the country) are sending in units of professional agitators to run the party campaign. If the NGOs have decided that they should now dump the Cong, now that it has outlived its utility, and run their own party, that party would be the AAP. And given how much of our own educated class has a left lib mentality, I can imagine part time agitators coming from our own professional English educated class, for whom it feeds into their own left liberal dreams and running their revolutions and rebelling against the traditional authority.

Having said that, we must remember that it is the failure of the BJP to take command of the situation that is responsible for the mess we are currently in. In Bangalore, at least, if the AAP tries, it will find a disillusioned educated class. BJP failed fantastically in Karnataka. So - I am genuinely worried about the AAP in Bangalore.

nawabs · Post by **nawabs** » 10 Dec 2013 20:46

saravana wrote:Taking Kejriwal seriously and making a hero out of him is a self fulfilling prophecy. Let the right wing people not feed into it. The only way to bust the AAP myth is to mock them. And personally I can't take someone, who likes the ideology of AAP and especially the people behind them, seriously. Typically they are idealistic but naive. I might have been the same at their age but no point indulging them.
My colleague's little brother is still in school, higher secondary. He is very voluble about his support of AAP and Kejriwal on his facebook and his friends are pretty much aligned to his posts as I see them. They are eroding the minds of the next generation, that should be the worry.

I would say it is lack of understanding about economics and everything else which is affected by it. Eg. Many of my friends believe that Food inflation is due to corruption and hording alone and have no idea about the role played by high cost of factors of production such as labour due to MNREGA or high MSP and plenty of other factors. They believe that corruption is be all and end all and not the result of faulty policies itself. They have diagnosed the problem wrong.

For petrol and diesel, they say reduce taxes but have no idea how much important that tax is for states lacking diverse financial resources. What I mean to say that an issue has many sides and hardly any perfect solution is available. They have never even heard of Finance Commission.

manju · Post by **manju** » 10 Dec 2013 20:51

As mentioned above a good side effect of AAP is that it will give Modi a good reason/excuse to get rid of the scum in the party.. which otherwise would have been difficult

VikramS · Post by **VikramS** » 10 Dec 2013 20:56

The only good thing about the rise of AAP is that it will empower Modi within the BJP.

If you see the voting patterns, AAP swept, yes swept, all the middle class seats of Delhi Proper. It was only the outer Delhi seats which have a poor/semi-urban population where BJP swept.

Now the media will go go with AAP.

The message of AAP is so nice to hear. Problem is walking the talk.

AK is already saying that the will fight LS elections head to head against NaMo.

http://daily.bhaskar.com/article-hl/GUJ ... 6-NOR.html

While strategically the CG victory was important, tactically the AAP victory in Delhi is the most damning for 2014.

The one good thing is this: While the core BJP voter targeted by Team-B in the urban areas is an AAP supporter, NaMo's popularity also crosses into rural areas. And that is where the bulk lies.

Arjun · Post by **Arjun** » 10 Dec 2013 20:57

I wouldn't be too worried about the AAP. They are a worry now since they have the advantage of being an unknown entity with zero history which naturally attracts anarchists and do-gooders from across India. But as time goes by and their stance becomes more widely known and the BJP's counter arguments are given air - the idiocy of the AAP's policies will become quite apparent to all. The BJP certainly has to take it seriously - it cannot afford not to do that. But the end outcome is likely to be very favorable to Modi's campaign...

One suggestion I do have though is for Modi to beef up his inner circle and form a kind of 'shadow cabinet'. This could include for example global heavyweights like Arvind Panagariya for Economics. On the anti-corruption side, Kiran Bedi can be a good choice to take on Kejriwal as part of Modi's team...Would she be willing though ?

archan · Post by **archan** » 10 Dec 2013 20:59

Rahul Mehta wrote:
archan wrote:What happens to a constituency if a MLA resigns?
Election commission will hold by-election within six months after he resigns.

The MLA who resigned can re-contest.

Now given that Delhi has Loksabha elections in may-2014, EC will club delhi assembly by-election with loksabha-may-2014 elections.

OK, so your suggestion is that the 15 BJP candidates who campaigned tirelessly to get people to vote for them, got their peoples' faith in them, created hope for doing better work, should kick the peoples' mandate aside only to show some third party? moreover, they can stand in election again and ask for votes from the same people again?

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 10 Dec 2013 21:00

ibnlive

The Congress which won eight seats on Tuesday appeared to be extending an olive branch to AAP to form a government in Delhi even as Arvind Kejriwal ruled out giving any support to BJP for the same.

Congress's Delhi in-charge Shakeel Ahmed said the party is prepared to give outside support to the AAP. "Many of our leaders feel that if AAP forms government, we should lend them unconditional support from outside. Nothing has been decided yet. We are speaking to our MLA," he said.

sudarshan · Post by **sudarshan** » 10 Dec 2013 21:02

Is congress also extending AAP a long rope for them to hang themselves with? If I'm reading the congress right, they must be smarting for revenge against double-crossing Kejri.

But the net result is - congress effectively created one more regional satrap to destroy its base in a state.

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 10 Dec 2013 21:06

nageshks wrote:Having said that, we must remember that it is the failure of the BJP to take command of the situation that is responsible for the mess we are currently in. In Bangalore, at least, if the AAP tries, it will find a disillusioned educated class. BJP failed fantastically in Karnataka. So - I am genuinely worried about the AAP in Bangalore.

There is no need to spend too much time on the AAP. It is a circus/tamasha phenomenon reflecting a polity that is in serious turmoil and confusion.

Dr Harshvardhan has handled the situation correctly in Dilli. When the time comes, all that Mr Modi will need to do is to repeat his pointed question to the public: "Jisne vaada toda, usse naata todoge ?" Not a difficult question to ask, considering Kejriwal's promises of free/discounted this and that. You saw the answer to this question in RJ, MP, and CG already.

VikramS · Post by **VikramS** » 10 Dec 2013 21:08

Given AAP the bully-pulpit for a few months prior to the LS elections as CM of Delhi is going to be a disaster from a PR perspective. He can now go and preach all over from a position of power.

And those who think that AAP aligning with the Congress will be seen as evil, dont know how media will spin the sacrifice as respecting people's verdict.

Not Good.

Comer · Post by **Comer** » 10 Dec 2013 21:31

They have the bully pulpit because it is Delhi and they won from that place, where the media can amplify your actions. And since they are leftists media loves them.
It is a glorified municipal corporation election. A party winning sizable number of seats soon after formation is not uncommon. Gaptan Vijayakanth must be ruing for not learning Hindi, he could have also won the hearts and minds nationwide.

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 10 Dec 2013 21:45

captain seems to be in news for all wrong reasons these days and beating reports seems to be his fav, he even beats his own candidates , heavy drinker

Comer · Post by **Comer** » 10 Dec 2013 22:00

^^ Never been a fan of this guy but he squandered away his popularity. My pet theory is that most of the recent populist and giving away free schemes has its origins in Vijaykanth's offer of delivering PDS goods direct home instead of standing in queue. Artiste started some giveaway schemes like 2 acre land etc to counter it. I guess it all precipitated from there.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 10 Dec 2013 22:01

Anupam Kher ‏@AnupamPkher 13m

Now that Congress has offered them unconditional support AAP should actively start giving a practical shape to people’s expectations.
------------------------->>
Lot of venom now being directed @ Anupam Kher on teetar

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 10 Dec 2013 22:01

Anupam Kher ‏@AnupamPkher 18m

I will urge @ArvindKejriwal & AAP to form Govt in Delhi. All those who voted for them must be hoping for better Governance promised to them.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 10 Dec 2013 22:01

Antithesis ‏@_antithesis_1 51m

" @AnupamPkher on @RajatSharmaLive : AAP terms BJP/Cong as corrupt but still asking them 2 form govt. Do they want a corrupt govt.in Delhi
-------------------------------->>
Very good point IMHO given that Farzilal has termed both as corrupt

sudarshan · Post by **sudarshan** » 10 Dec 2013 22:44

Is it possible to mount public pressure on Kejriwal to take up the mantle? Not that I'm rooting for a collapse of civic services in Delhi, but exposing Kejri's ineptness even for a month would do wonders to slap some sense into his starry-eyed minions and supporters.

Muhammad bin Tughlaq comes to mind.

Edit: Actually, Kejri's idea of holding Delhi Assembly meetings in the Ramlila Maidan is very Tughlaqesque. Why doesn't he go all the way and move the capital to Kejriwalabad?

SBajwa · Post by **SBajwa** » 10 Dec 2013 23:13

BJP leaders should point this out to the people that AAP is only interested in being in opposition and is shying away from taking responsibility. As congress is supporting them they should form a government.

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 10 Dec 2013 23:42

KLP Dubey wrote:
nageshks wrote:Having said that, we must remember that it is the failure of the BJP to take command of the situation that is responsible for the mess we are currently in. In Bangalore, at least, if the AAP tries, it will find a disillusioned educated class. BJP failed fantastically in Karnataka. So - I am genuinely worried about the AAP in Bangalore.
There is no need to spend too much time on the AAP. It is a circus/tamasha phenomenon reflecting a polity that is in serious turmoil and confusion.

Dr Harshvardhan has handled the situation correctly in Dilli. When the time comes, all that Mr Modi will need to do is to repeat his pointed question to the public: "Jisne vaada toda, usse naata todoge ?" Not a difficult question to ask, considering Kejriwal's promises of free/discounted this and that. You saw the answer to this question in RJ, MP, and CG already.

Exactly. Kujliwal is being propped up by PAIDMEDIA.

Read what Vinod Mehta said "If Modi comes, we will all be in trouble. We will be out of our jobs".

Why?

They own/editors/founders of these magazines. Would Modi shut them down? No way. But why are they afraid?

They are afraid because they don't make any money. They suck people's money using Govt. Ads. They launder money of some corrupt politicians and routed as investment thru foreign sources.

They are afraid they will be caught.

All BJP has to do is to keep questioning where is the revolution AK promised. CONgis supporting him. We won't pull him down. Why does he not dare to form a Govt? Keep reminiding people of failed TURD fronts of India

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 10 Dec 2013 23:44

Senior BJP leaders are concerned that the Congress could create conditions which will lead to the calling of early elections in Delhi in February-March, ahead of the General Elections. The BJP leadership fears that if Assembly Elections are advanced then there is a real possibility of the Aam Aadmi Party forming the next government in the capital. The BJP feels that the Congress knows it is on the way out and might help the Aam Aadmi Party come to power in Delhi, in a bid to show that there is no pro-Modi wave in the country.

Speaking exclusively to the India Today Group, BJP's Delhi in-Charge, Nitin Gadkari said that the BJP wants the Aam Aadmi Party to form the next government in Delhi, with Congress' support. "We welcome the statement of the Congress spokesperson that the Congress is prepared to support the Aam Aadmi Party government from the outside. BJP will back such an attempt wholeheartedly and play the role of a responsible opposition."

Gadkari also said that the BJP is prepared to consider supporting a government of the Aam Aadmi Party in case Arvind Kejriwal were to ask the party for support . "Kejriwal is saying he does not want to tie-up with us. But in case he asks for BJP's support, the party's parliamentary board will discuss this possibility very seriously."

http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/delh ... 30516.html

Vamsi.R · Post by **Vamsi.R** » 10 Dec 2013 23:44

dont know if this was posted before

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 10 Dec 2013 23:56

If AAP forms the government there is only disadvantage to congress and also AAP. BJP has advantage whether if forms government or by sitting out as well. That is the predicament going on there. Realistic Kujli.

Congress lost its base to a new comer and it supports it. The new comer came on a created anti-congress but actually meant for anti-BJP. The things becoming open if associated with INC is the predicament.

Going to another election is a different situation and not easy to predict.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 11 Dec 2013 00:06

^^^ Not really. The above post showing the margin of losses and wins shows that the re-elections the electorate will vote decisively for forming the government and not this charade.

Gadkari should not give interviews to anti-BJP media. No need to give them opportunity to twist his words.

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 11 Dec 2013 00:15

ChandraV wrote:Here's what I posted in another forum:

I just came back to India after a lot of traveling and stepped into my Bangalore office today, and spoke to several people over chai and cigarettes. The amount of support and enthusiasm for Kejriwal is immense beyond belief. People who were supporting Modi wholeheartedly till yesterday are now supporting AAP. The most common reason given is that, they all want AAP to keep the mainstream parties on their toes. Everyone cites the example of how the Delhi CM candidate was changed by Modi, thanks to the AAP effect.

People like @Decklander who are dismissive of Kejriwal do so at their own peril. These guys in the Bangalore office are waiting for AAP to contest from Bangalore, and they have already pledged to volunteer for the AAP.

Personally I want the BJP/Modi to come unhindered to power in 2014. I want stability, and the known right-wing economic model of Modi. I am ok if AAP proceeds state-by-state, and grows over the next 5 years. Let us see what they come up with, we have enough time to judge them. But as of now, I don't want interruptions to the predestined Modi wave.

Unfortunately, there will definitely be interruptions. More than Congoons, it is the BJP which needs to be on their toes now. They have to present a clean image of themselves and demonstrably get rid of tainted candidates. There is going to be a massive voter confusion otherwise. They should show, very clearly, that they are clean. AAP's "clean governance" plank needs to be countered with a counter "clean governance" by the BJP, there is no other way.

Saar, you've raised a very important issue. I have been experiencing the same. I guess sensing this mood of mango public Sangh has already read a riot act to BJP to steer clear of all troubles/scandals otherwise.
...
No matter how much we find faults with AAP's outlandish promises, mango public is tired and disgusted with chronic scandals, violence against women, bribes, etc etc. etc. They are sooo mad that they want to make the mainstream political parties sit up and take notice by voting for NGI-like AAP. In the long run it may be damaging. But the current mood is "who cares, we want to send a strong signal"........

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 11 Dec 2013 00:18

Dilli waala seems to be the most confused junta on planet earth

Another election makes sense only if it is a run-off election between 1st and 2nd candidates. What is point of electiong BJP, AAP and INC contest. This is the ridiculous and confused junta. More you are educated more confused you are ?

Delhi prefers AAP government in Assembly, also ready for re-election: ABP News-Ipsos survey

New Delhi: In Delhi, even after three days of results of Delhi Assembly polls held on December 4, nobody wants to form government.

BJP bagged 32 seats and still away from the magic numbers of 36 to form government meanwhile, the surprise package—Aam Aadmi Party, with 28 seats, has already announced that they will never ask for any support to form government rather declared to sit in the opposition.

In this situation, ABP News-Ipsos survey found that “voice of change” Arvind Kejriwal should come forward and form a government in the national capital.

Lets take a look at what Delhi voters think about government formation in Delhi-

Should AAP form the government with Congress and others?

According to the survey, 66 per cent of Delhi voters want AAP in the government.

However, 29 per cent voters want BJP to form government; meanwhile 5 per cent are still not sure about any government formation in the national capital.

Should BJP & AAP come together to form a government in Delhi with a common minimum programme?

According to the survey, 60 per cent people are against it and they do not want these parties to come together and form government where 40 per cent voters are in support of a common minimum programme of AAP and BJP.

Should AAP form the government with Congress and others?

People of Delhi are against Congress and it seems that there is huge anti-incumbency against the party. Only 17 per cent voters want Congress and AAP to come together and form a government in Delhi, according to the survey.That means, 83 per cent voters are strongly against any alliance of AAP and Congress to form government in the national capital.

Should there be elections again in Delhi as no party has got complete majority?

According to the survey did by ABP News-Ipsos, people of Delhi are open to another election in the Delhi. 64 per cent voters want re-election in Delhi while 36 per cent are against it.

Samples for the ABP News-Ipsos survey were collected after results of Delhi Assembly polls where 600 people expressed their views.

The survey is based on the Assembly area where AAP and BJP won seats.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 11 Dec 2013 00:29

Err the real survey was the elections which showed that the people dont want Congress to continue. The people did not give a majority or so called plurality to any party to form the government.

Above survey is another example of media messing with minds.

Another thing for BJP to find out is how they lost those seats so narrowly?
Was it the candidate selection or inadequate mobilization or anything else?

Modi and Harshvardan didnt have enough time to get the right candidates in the place.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 11 Dec 2013 00:34

Congress has a long track record of withdrawing support at both levels: national, state. And so their offer of support to AAP has no credibility.

BJP can offer to be responsible opposition to an AAP govt which can always be bailed out by INC if the need arises!

In US there is automatic recount when margin is ~1%. Any such rules in India?

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 11 Dec 2013 00:44

ramana wrote:....
In US there is automatic recount when margin is ~1%. Any such rules in India?

recounting is relevant only in case of manual paper votes like in US.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 11 Dec 2013 00:47

One thing we need to hail is the defeat fo the Congress from Delhi after misruling for so many terms.
And the results give preview to Indian public is they are not decisive in giving a plurality for any one party/group to form the government.

It will be worse than the UF government in 1996.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 11 Dec 2013 00:55

Looks like Congress MLAs await High Command to decide on supporting AAP!

LINK

7.45 pm: Will obey high command decision on AAP: Congress MLAs

After the 0-4 looks more like a Low Command.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 11 Dec 2013 01:58

Most likely President' Rule for Delhi with the Lt Gov ruling till next elections are held unless the interim elected folks break ranks.

Maybe 3month PR and meantime all the Congress MLAs jump to AAP?

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 11 Dec 2013 03:03

Something to watch....

http://www.telegraphindia.com/1131210/j ... qeOOaPnbcs

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 11 Dec 2013 03:07

Kati wrote:Something to watch....

http://www.telegraphindia.com/1131210/j ... qeOOaPnbcs

Assuming that the article is speaking the truth, how come Kejriwal is able to recruit so fast?

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 11 Dec 2013 03:11

^simple.. if you think aap is a clean face for kangrez, then all it needs is someone purge the files, and join aap. just become aam.. that is all it takes. then win elections, crate same hulla gullah, do some scam sham - btw that would take another 5 years to realize, cbi is anway under their custody.

same bandic(h)oots... will shift from place to place.. unless there is a stricter party discipline, aap leaders and helm will have no idea who is who joining their party.

however, mr kerjriwal shall be mr clean forever.. and win votes for these larger scums who has prevented SC ruling on criminals joining gov.

list them out.. with out cbi files, we shall slowly dig their existience.