Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

prahaar · Post by **prahaar** » 13 Dec 2013 12:22

pankajs wrote:Assembly elections reveal Muslim voters support Congress more than BJP

It would have been more interesting if the article provided last Assembly vote share in comparison. But the news does not seem to be surprising.

member_20317 · Post by **member_20317** » 13 Dec 2013 14:04

Meantime.

1) Daily News & Analysis-"Rabri Devi hails Supreme Court order".

...................................................

2) http://www.ndtv.com/article/india/anna- ... nue-458323

Ralegan Siddhi, Maharashtra: Veteran activist Anna Hazare today rebuked Arvind Kejriwal's close aide Gopal Rai and asked him to leave the venue of his indefinite hunger strike after the latter had a spat with former Army Chief General VK Singh.

Mr Rai had been chosen by Mr Kejriwal as the representative from his Aam Aadmi Party to participate in 76-year-old Mr Hazare's fast at his village in Maharashtra's Ralegan Siddhi to pressure the government in clearing the anti-corruption Jan Lokpal Bill in the ongoing Winter session of Parliament. The fast entered its third day today.

Trouble began when General Singh, without naming Mr Kejriwal, attacked the taxman-turned-politician and his new Aam Aadmi Party for extracting mileage from his association with Mr Hazare, his one-time mentor. The Gandhian, alongwith Mr Kejriwal, had led a massive campaign in 2011 for a Lokpal or ombudsman to probe allegations of graft against public servants.

General Singh's remarks reportedly irked Mr Rai who then got into an argument with the former. As the matter heated up, Mr Hazare intervened and asked Mr Rai to leave the venue.

"Someone who deserted Anna and joined hands with Modi is accusing others of betrayal," Mr Rai later said, referring to General Singh who was seen with Narendra Modi at a rally in Haryana couple of months back.

..........................................................
And the Rabri Devi uvach was not on the order you guys thought. It was for the one that granted bail to Lalu Prasad Yadav.

Chandragupta · Post by **Chandragupta** » 13 Dec 2013 14:06

Why is the good General wasting his time with idiots like AH & AK? He should join BJP and contest from Haryana.

member_20317 · Post by **member_20317** » 13 Dec 2013 14:07

Chandragupta wrote:Why is the good General wasting his time with idiots like AH & AK? He should join BJP and contest from Haryana.

Somebody has got to keep an eye on what is happening around here. Last time this was left to Kejriwal and look what happened.

And MNS has lent support to AH.

Altair · Post by **Altair** » 13 Dec 2013 14:17

^^ He isnt. He will succeed Antony.

Chandragupta · Post by **Chandragupta** » 13 Dec 2013 14:42

If someone started watching Indian news channels from last week, he would think AAP is the biggest political party and people like Kumar Vishwas, Manish Sisodia & AK are the super top dogs of Indian politics. Modi who?

These MSM idiots are trying so hard to turn these flyweights into BJP challengers.

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 13 Dec 2013 14:53

14:00 Consensus after BJP's 3-hour meet: Won't ally with DMK : At the BJP meet which went on for over three hours, the consensus that evolved was that the party would never align with the DMK. The meeting was held at party headquarters at 11 Ashok Road and attended by the top brass. Nitin Gadkari and Rajnath Singh were emphatic that the party reject the Tamil Nadu unit's suggestion that it cozy up to the DMK.

BJP Parliamentary Board had an inconclusive deliberations about the alliance of Soutern States. It has a broader outline of Tamil Nadu. That BJP shall go with MDMK and PMK, In the next one week, the BJP leader Rajnath SIngh shall meet Vaiko and Dr S Ramdoss in New Delhi to bring about a formula. Central leadership of BJP awaits response from Vijaykant-the leader of DMDK If he joins this front, it is good otherwise, BJP will go ahead with MDMK and PMK

#rediff

Neela · Post by **Neela** » 13 Dec 2013 16:10

Modi effect visible in BIhar, UP
UP stats encouraging but Mayawati is not far behind in the numbers.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 13 Dec 2013 16:19

krishnan wrote:
14:00 Consensus after BJP's 3-hour meet: Won't ally with DMK : At the BJP meet which went on for over three hours, the consensus that evolved was that the party would never align with the DMK. The meeting was held at party headquarters at 11 Ashok Road and attended by the top brass. Nitin Gadkari and Rajnath Singh were emphatic that the party reject the Tamil Nadu unit's suggestion that it cozy up to the DMK.

BJP Parliamentary Board had an inconclusive deliberations about the alliance of Soutern States. It has a broader outline of Tamil Nadu. That BJP shall go with MDMK and PMK, In the next one week, the BJP leader Rajnath SIngh shall meet Vaiko and Dr S Ramdoss in New Delhi to bring about a formula. Central leadership of BJP awaits response from Vijaykant-the leader of DMDK If he joins this front, it is good otherwise, BJP will go ahead with MDMK and PMK
#rediff

Karunanidhi is going to be 90 next June (2014). Can DMK survive his retirement? Don't think so!

Space is becoming available for an opposition party in Tamil Nadu politics. BJP should take the plunge, and try to build up themselves there. Once DMK collapses, pull as many leaders from it to BJP as one can!

Sridhar K · Post by **Sridhar K** » 13 Dec 2013 16:54

^^ DMK being a cadre based party will largely align with Stalin as he is the defacto head now with Dr. artiste in retirement. Azhagiri may take a small faction out and the Maran's will align with anyone who makes business sense. The general rumor is that Amma is soft on Stalin while she is dead against the artiste.

As per local media reports, Stalin wants to come out of Congress and have an alliance with BJP. It seems he got pretty riled after the CB raid.

member_20317 · Post by **member_20317** » 13 Dec 2013 17:15

Altair wrote:^^ He isnt. He will succeed Antony.

From the right side. Right? If that is the case then aap ke munh mein ghee shakaar.

AK-47 says I want to meet AH. AK-47 says I am sick. Gen. gives an earful to chamchas of chamchas. AK-47 says I will form govt. with outside unconditional support of Congis.

MNS! what do you make of MNS supporting AH at this juncture.

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 13 Dec 2013 17:45

krishnan wrote:
14:00 Consensus after BJP's 3-hour meet: Won't ally with DMK : At the BJP meet which went on for over three hours, the consensus that evolved was that the party would never align with the DMK. The meeting was held at party headquarters at 11 Ashok Road and attended by the top brass. Nitin Gadkari and Rajnath Singh were emphatic that the party reject the Tamil Nadu unit's suggestion that it cozy up to the DMK.

BJP Parliamentary Board had an inconclusive deliberations about the alliance of Soutern States. It has a broader outline of Tamil Nadu. That BJP shall go with MDMK and PMK, In the next one week, the BJP leader Rajnath SIngh shall meet Vaiko and Dr S Ramdoss in New Delhi to bring about a formula. Central leadership of BJP awaits response from Vijaykant-the leader of DMDK If he joins this front, it is good otherwise, BJP will go ahead with MDMK and PMK
#rediff

why would the BJP top brass rule out alliances with a major regional powerhouse in a state that brings 40 MPs to the LS, more so when they do not have other options finalized. Something stinks here.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 13 Dec 2013 17:50

^^

With corruption being the biggest talking point after AAP's victory in Delhi they couldn't afford to be seen with DMK given the high profile 2G scam case.

After the polls are over an alliance is still doable if necessary and desired by both.

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 13 Dec 2013 17:54

Paul, DMK is ideologically 180 degree to everything bjp stands for. a poll alliance with them would simply be cynical politics.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 13 Dec 2013 17:57

Esp when DMK politicians and Dr Atriste Family was thick in the corruption scam. You name it they had a finger in it. Alliance with them would compromise stand/fight on current corruption issues.

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 13 Dec 2013 18:02

^^^They were allied in the past. could be a post poll alliance but still they collaborated and delivered the goods eg.at the WTO with Murasoli Maran representing India. If JJ is playing coy, they need to look at other options on the table.

But I get Pankaj's point about 2G corruption.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 13 Dec 2013 18:17

Neela wrote:Modi effect visible in BIhar, UP
UP stats encouraging but Mayawati is not far behind in the numbers.

Saar, please see the details in the link they have provided at the bottom.

http://thinkindia.in.com/wp-content/upl ... rginal.pdf

The survey is horrible. Their sample is junk. Question 12: Responders say 27% voted BJP in 2009 and only 18.9% for SP in fatehpur. But in reality, BJP got 16.5% and SP 30% in fatehpur seat. So with this kind of sampling, their survey is mega junk. This gets me even more worried that the survey has been done by an agency like lokniti-csds. Whatever IBN and Rajdeeps reputation is I dont care, but as a survey agency, if this is the competency level you display, then we all have to double think on their projection of BJP getting 32 seats in UP when they did a nation wide survey 3-4 months ago.. Not good at all

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 13 Dec 2013 18:20

Oaul, yes they did. do you remember how that ended ?

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 13 Dec 2013 18:25

pankajs wrote:Assembly elections reveal Muslim voters support Congress more than BJP
Even in Madhya Pradesh, where the Congress has lost big time, it has still received 69.2 per cent of the total Muslim votes. The BJP, meanwhile, has managed just about 18.6 per cent of the Muslim votes and the BSP has managed a miniscule 2.4 per cent votes.

Similarly, in Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, the Congress has gained 42.4 per cent and 55.6 per cent of the Muslim votes, respectively, while BJP has received 18.6 per cent and 15.5 per cent votes, respectively. The BSP has received just 6.8 per cent and 4.3 per cent votes in the two states, respectively.

In Delhi, though the Aam Aadmi Party has made a dent, the majority of Muslim votes have remained with the Congress. The Congress has won 45.2 per cent of the Muslim votes in Delhi, BJP 15.5 per cent, BSP 4.3 per cent and AAP 34.4 per cent. In case of a re-election in Delhi, it is likely that in the seats where the Congress has come third, the Muslim voters might now vote for AAP. However, in the Lok Sabha polls, it is unlikely that they will side with AAP. Instead, they will continue to support the Congress.

Read more at: http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/asse ... 30894.html

This absolutely nails the concerns that muraliravi has put several time on these threads. There is no gravy train for BJP with Muslim voters. Trying too much for Shia votes in JK, UP etc. is such a waste of time for BJP. It does not need to become like Tagodia or Bhajarang Dal but it is better keep quite and not helping overtly on polarization. Modi tried in couple of speeches with Haj related comments, Train from Ajmer to somewhere else. These are before election season and that is okay and I don't think any new aggression to do inclusiveness is necessary. In fact, doing such things was the reason for 2004 loss and why to take risks?

Another important thing is AAP is a very good thing to happen. If Muslims vote to AAP like the way they voted in Delhi, BJP will just win. In Delhi, BJP lost the state only by 2500 votes. Had it removed its dead wood and initial D4 driven intertia, it would have romped home. The above Delhi Muslim split across INC and AAP is very good news. It will be BJP's landslide in many other cities if AAP really grows and now it is very convincing the baby that was created to destroy BJP is actually a termite in owner's home.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 13 Dec 2013 18:32

bhajpa upping the baiting and waiting game...

>>Vijay Goel ‏@VijayGoelBJP 31m
If AAP is really serious about fulfilling its promises then it should form a government. BJP will provide whatever cooperation is required.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 13 Dec 2013 18:33

DMK is currently doomed in TN. No hope till next assembly election and that too if JJ errs big time. So far he has done well and being appreciated by most TN folks. If BJP wants to be doomed in TN , not that it has any seat, they can align with DMK and commit harakiri in broad daylight as Congis would activate all 2G cases and go full blare after BJP as if it was their fault.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 13 Dec 2013 18:36

15% muslim votes for BJP is still pretty significant. So while most Muslims are still with INC and AAP, the BJP should continue its middle path and ensure no mass mobilisation moves against them. TBH, I am surprised at the number.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 13 Dec 2013 18:37

Hari Seldon wrote:bhajpa upping the baiting and waiting game...

>>Vijay Goel ‏@VijayGoelBJP 31m
If AAP is really serious about fulfilling its promises then it should form a government. BJP will provide whatever cooperation is required.

Very happy that shri Goel is firmly in the BJP camp and did not play spoiler after the good Dr was brought in.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 13 Dec 2013 19:27

krishnan wrote:
14:00 Consensus after BJP's 3-hour meet: Won't ally with DMK : At the BJP meet which went on for over three hours, the consensus that evolved was that the party would never align with the DMK. The meeting was held at party headquarters at 11 Ashok Road and attended by the top brass. Nitin Gadkari and Rajnath Singh were emphatic that the party reject the Tamil Nadu unit's suggestion that it cozy up to the DMK.

BJP Parliamentary Board had an inconclusive deliberations about the alliance of Soutern States. It has a broader outline of Tamil Nadu. That BJP shall go with MDMK and PMK, In the next one week, the BJP leader Rajnath SIngh shall meet Vaiko and Dr S Ramdoss in New Delhi to bring about a formula. Central leadership of BJP awaits response from Vijaykant-the leader of DMDK If he joins this front, it is good otherwise, BJP will go ahead with MDMK and PMK
#rediff

There was an article by M R Venkatesh, some time ago, that a BJP-MDMK-PMK-DMDK grand alliance has the potential to be the most powerful alliance in TN.

http://www.niticentral.com/2013/10/25/f ... 50549.html

I do not know how true the author's claim is, but I am glad that the BJP is going the route of the grand alliance. Also, under Pon Radhakrishnan, the BJP seems to be very active, at least in the southern regions of the state. In the above article, the author believes that the BJP only vote can touch 10-12% if it has the right cadre on the ground. An alliance with the PMK (strong in the Vanniar belt), MDMK (strong in the south and parts of western TN) and DMDK might well propel the grand alliance to around 25% of the total vote, and might be sufficient to win a few seats at the very least.

As an aside, in the past, the BJP was too weak even to be attractive to the small parties like the PMK and the MDMK. But now, both of them have been actively courting the BJP, most probably because of the NaMo wave.

The best thing that is going to come out of this exercise, IMO, is that the BJP will have begun the exercise of building up a strong cadre in all parts of the state. This is vital, not only for winning elections, but also for stemming the EJ assault.

Ashok Sarraff · Post by **Ashok Sarraff** » 13 Dec 2013 19:35

How does that tie with the overall objective of Congress-Mukt Bharat? How will Amma view and react to BJP's moves in this direction? Will it lead to splitting of Anti-Congress votes? Even if BJP wins a seat or two without a tie-up with Amma and in fact contesting against it, will it lead to political animosity with Amma? Will Amma be a part of NDA in such case?

IMO, the first objective should be Congress-Mukt Bharat and for its achievement BJP should go with Amma. In any case BJP is not going to get more than 2 seats through any alliance.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 13 Dec 2013 19:41

Ashok Sarraff wrote:How does that tie with the overall objective of Congress-Mukt Bharat? How will Amma view and react to BJP's moves in this direction? Will it lead to splitting of Anti-Congress votes? Even if BJP wins a seat or two without a tie-up with Amma and in fact contesting against it, will it lead to political animosity with Amma? Will Amma be a part of NDA in such case?

IMO, the first objective should be Congress-Mukt Bharat and for its achievement BJP should go with Amma. In any case BJP is not going to get more than 2 seats through any alliance.

Saar - if the BJP shows strength and the ability to hurt Amma, she will come running to the BJP for an Alliance. She is in a position of strength today. If she is brought down a few notches, then she will deal with the BjP more amicably. It is her position of strength that gives her the ability to dictate terms to the BJP. Damaging that is not a bad idea at all.

manish singh · Post by **manish singh** » 13 Dec 2013 19:47

Hope this is the right thread to post articles unmasking AAP.

http://www.niticentral.com/2013/12/12/a ... 67861.html

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 13 Dec 2013 19:51

nageshks wrote:
Ashok Sarraff wrote:How does that tie with the overall objective of Congress-Mukt Bharat? How will Amma view and react to BJP's moves in this direction? Will it lead to splitting of Anti-Congress votes? Even if BJP wins a seat or two without a tie-up with Amma and in fact contesting against it, will it lead to political animosity with Amma? Will Amma be a part of NDA in such case?

IMO, the first objective should be Congress-Mukt Bharat and for its achievement BJP should go with Amma. In any case BJP is not going to get more than 2 seats through any alliance.
Saar - if the BJP shows strength and the ability to hurt Amma, she will come running to the BJP for an Alliance. She is in a position of strength today. If she is brought down a few notches, then she will deal with the BjP more amicably. It is her position of strength that gives her the ability to dictate terms to the BJP. Damaging that is not a bad idea at all.

Amma is a shubchintak onlee.

She will not go against the BJP overtly. At worst she may remain benign

Ashok Sarraff · Post by **Ashok Sarraff** » 13 Dec 2013 19:53

nageshks wrote:
Ashok Sarraff wrote:How does that tie with the overall objective of Congress-Mukt Bharat? How will Amma view and react to BJP's moves in this direction? Will it lead to splitting of Anti-Congress votes? Even if BJP wins a seat or two without a tie-up with Amma and in fact contesting against it, will it lead to political animosity with Amma? Will Amma be a part of NDA in such case?

IMO, the first objective should be Congress-Mukt Bharat and for its achievement BJP should go with Amma. In any case BJP is not going to get more than 2 seats through any alliance.
Saar - if the BJP shows strength and the ability to hurt Amma, she will come running to the BJP for an Alliance. She is in a position of strength today. If she is brought down a few notches, then she will deal with the BjP more amicably. It is her position of strength that gives her the ability to dictate terms to the BJP. Damaging that is not a bad idea at all.

nageshks,

In my view, there is an immediate goal-Congress-Mukt Bharat. Amma's support is crucial in achievement of this goal in the short term, that is in the general elections that are just a few months away. Thus it would be advisable to keep Amma on the NDA side rather then antagonizing her by contesting against her.

Longer-term view should surely to be have an independent presence in T.N. But that can wait for the next (2019) elections after Congress has been decimated. But these are only my views with no bearing on anyone's decisions.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 13 Dec 2013 20:09

My my , Congis have written letter to LG of Delhi expressing support to AAP prior to KA meeting him tomorrow. Great move. LG can ask AK to form Govt and Ak has not even asked support from Congis.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 13 Dec 2013 20:10

chetak wrote: Amma is a shubchintak onlee.

She will not go against the BJP overtly. At worst she may remain benign

According to birdies in Karnataka BJP, JJ is hoping to become PM as the compromise candidate of the Third Front, supported by the Congress. She does not want to jeopardise that game by aligning with the BJP.

Sridhar K · Post by **Sridhar K** » 13 Dec 2013 20:10

Some tidbits from the local mags and chaiwalla info take it FWIW.

Despite being a friend of NaMo, She considered NaMo as a good peer but no body knows what is her take on his PM nominations. Grapevine is that Amma harbors ambitions of PMship and her Chelas were going all out in the local mags against Cho for trying to spoil the Amma's PM dreams from being realized by trying to make her support NaMO. NaMo was invited for Cho's daughter wedding on 6th Dec and the rumour was that there NaMo was to meet Amma and talk about an alliance which did not happen.

She may be bracing up for a post poll alliance with BJP. Though she has her positives, she will be a problem for BJP and people shouldn't forget her pulling out support to Vajpayee Govt. where as DMK would be true opportunistic partner who will play the game by partnering with the party at the center as long as their aim to make money is met.

BJP + MDMK + PMK + DMDK is a natural alliance but
a) PMK is on a very chauvanistic casteist wicket in TN now with its support at an all time low
b) MDMK is also a spent force
c) DMDK could bring in decent numbers if Captain does not spoil it any further. Amma is cleaning up dmdk MLAs big time and Captain has to get his act together.

Let us see how it spans out. - paarkalam

member_20317 · Post by **member_20317** » 13 Dec 2013 20:12

chaanakya wrote:My my , Congis have written letter to LG of Delhi expressing support to AAP prior to KA meeting him tomorrow. Great move. LG can ask AK to form Govt and Ak has not even asked support from Congis.

VV should have been in the new thread by Kapilmama. Oxygen mein duba duba ke rakenge. Oxygen marne nahi dega, doobna jeene nahi dega.

Ashok Sarraff · Post by **Ashok Sarraff** » 13 Dec 2013 20:13

This is comic. Akin to presenting someone a full-grown elephant as a birthday gift!

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 13 Dec 2013 20:22

Sridhar K wrote: BJP + MDMK + PMK + DMDK is a natural alliance but
a) PMK is on a very chauvanistic casteist wicket in TN now with its support at an all time low
b) MDMK is also a spent force
c) DMDK could bring in decent numbers if Captain does not spoil it any further. Amma is cleaning up dmdk MLAs big time and Captain has to get his act together.

Let us see how it spans out. - paarkalam

Thanks, Sridhar-ji. Your analysis of JJ matches what I am hearing from my own sources. I don't know about PMK, but I understand that the MDMK still has some traction in south TN. BJP is also a considerable force there (they put up a good show in the Ramanathapuram muncipal elections some time ago, and BJP has always won (in alliance) or stood second in Kanyakumari, even when it contested on its own). My sources have been claiming that with the BJP and MDMK in alliance, the BJP may just be able to romp home in Kanyakumari and help the MDMK do it in Virudhnagar. Ramanathapuram, Thoothkudi, and Tenkasi would be a toss up. Would be happy to hear your views on this.

Finally, what is with Captain beating his own party members? AFAIK, I have not been able to detect any ideology in his party, other than the greater glory of Captain. Can you find his ideology?

Malayappan · Post by **Malayappan** » 13 Dec 2013 20:30

chetak wrote:
nageshks wrote:How does that tie with the overall objective of Congress-Mukt Bharat?

As far as TN is concerned, it is likely to do its best for a Congress Mukht Bharat. If BJP-MDMK-PMK ally along with a Kongu party, DMK gets DMDK, ADMK already with the Communists, Congress will not get its deposit back in any seat.

For BJP's ambitions in Centre a weaker Jayalalitha will be preferable. So a result of something like 20 for ADMK, 16 for DMK, and 4 for the BJP-MDMK-PMK combine will be better for them. A Jayalalitha with 40 seats will provide votes in LS but will be a huge drag on governance - nothing will move!

Indeed as nageshks pointed out the value of that tie-up for BJP will not be in terms of total vote share, but its impact on specific seats. Additionally it should cut Jayalalitha's seat share, so if she comes along as an ally, she at least 'tries' to be reasonable..

Ashok Sarraff · Post by **Ashok Sarraff** » 13 Dec 2013 20:40

Malayappan, that makes sense. Thank you. A follow-up question. What would be your seat projection for each alliance in the following scenario:

BJP+MDMK+PMK
AIADMK alone or with a minor party
DMK + Congress + DMDK

member_20317 · Post by **member_20317** » 13 Dec 2013 20:45

आज तक ‏@aajtak now
BREAKING NEWS: सूत्र: उप-राज्यपाल ने कहा तो #AAP बनाएगी सरकार... #Aajtak... http://bit.ly/Live_Breaking_News …

This could be some wrong reporting too. just be careful before you make up your mind.

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 13 Dec 2013 20:54

Sridhar K wrote:Grapevine is that Amma harbors ambitions of PMship

i don't think she still harbors those ambitions. she usually does not repeat her mistakes and i hope she learned from the previous episode.

BJP + MDMK + PMK + DMDK is a natural alliance but
a) PMK is on a very chauvanistic casteist wicket in TN now with its support at an all time low
b) MDMK is also a spent force
c) DMDK could bring in decent numbers if Captain does not spoil it any further. Amma is cleaning up dmdk MLAs big time and Captain has to get his act together.

Let us see how it spans out. - paarkalam

PMK has gone batsh1t crazy with its casteism. mdmk with its LTTE nonsense. DMDK has less baggage, but captain does not give much promise to me anymore. rumors are that he is drunk all the time and the party has no discipline or direction.

i think now BJP can dare to go it alone in 5 favorable seats, coimbatore, kanyakumari, trichy etc. If they can get JJ not to contest in those seats, then BJP can win it.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 13 Dec 2013 21:11

Gus wrote: mdmk with its LTTE nonsense. DMDK has less baggage, but captain does not give much promise to me anymore. rumors are that he is drunk all the time and the party has no discipline or direction.

i think now BJP can dare to go it alone in 5 favorable seats, coimbatore, kanyakumari, trichy etc. If they can get JJ not to contest in those seats, then BJP can win it.

Gus-ji,
My sources (even those that come from south TN I have only met (on skype) in connexion with Karnataka BJP leaders) have been claiming that the harassment of the fishermen from south TN/Kerala is a big issue, and it has a lot of traction in the southern coastline. Modi, in his Trichi rally, spent a lot of time hammering on that point, as you can see here.

http://www.narendramodi.in/text-of-shri ... tamilnadu/

Apparently, Pon Radhakrishnan and the others in the southern part of TN have been insistent on that point for sometime now, saying that only a national party can protect them, and since the Congress has failed at that, it is only the BJP that can protect them. It was they who insisted on adding that part to NaMo's speech in TN. They claim they have made some inroads among the coastal folk. Their claim is they have an independent base in coastal TN now. Is there anything you know that would confirm or refute it?