AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 16 Dec 2013 02:13

Published on Dec 16, 2013
By BV Shiva Shankar
BJP not to back Congress on Telangana Bill in Parliament: Times of India

HYDERABAD: Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the main opposition in Parliament, will not support the Andhra Pradesh Reorganization Bill-2013 in its present form, top leaders said in what appears to be a body blow to Telangana prospects.

Senior BJP leaders said the Congress was playing vote bank politics on the issue of AP bifurcation and the party has decided not to support such a move.

"The BJP is committed to the cause of Telangana, but not the way the Congress is dealing with it now. The BJP will deliver on the statehood once our government is formed in Delhi and it would be acceptable for the people of both Telangana and Seemandhra," party president Rajnath Singh said in New Delhi.

His party spokesman Prakash Javadekar, who was in Hyderabad to attend a party event, echoed similar sentiments and expressed serious doubts about the Centre tabling the Bill in Parliament before the general elections are notified in March next year.

In a scathing attack on the Congress, Javadekar said the UPA government had created a crisis in Andhra Pradesh as it has divided the people even before announcing division of the state. "The Congress did not follow what Atalji showed about how a state should be divided. The Congress has shown how it should not be done," said Javadekar at a party event, recalling how the NDA government successfully formed the three states of Jharkhand, Uttarakhand and Chhattisgarh.

Terming the Congress way of approaching state division as 'votebank politics,' the BJP spokesperson said his party would not support it, unless the interest of the people of Seemandhra are protected and their consent is taken.

"Seemandhra is also India and people of Seemandhra are our people. How can we allow the Congress to go ahead with their own political plans ignoring the grievances of Seemandhra people?" Javadekar asked.

Analysts said the latest statements by BJP leaders assume significance as it might throw water on celebrations by Telangana enthusiasts and the passage of the T-Bill in Parliament could fall through if the UPA government fails to muster enough numbers for smooth passage of the Bill. While BJP has 114 votes in the 537-member Lok Sabha, the Samajwadi Party (SP) with 22 seats has clearly said it would not support the division of AP, despite supporting FDI in retail and the Food Security Bill.

With YSR Congress president Jaganmohan Reddy roping in parties like Trinamool Congress (19), AIDMK (9), Biju Janata Dal (14), the numbers are slowly swaying against the formation of Telangana, they said.

Even the Congress with 205 seats cannot ensure full support of its own party members as its seven MPs from Seemandhra are opposed to it and even issued notice to move a no-trust motion against its own government.

So BJP has taken the leap and is now firmly in running for SeemaAndhra votes. BJP would possibly put up candidates on half of seats in SeemaAndhra and half in Telangana. So 21 BJP candidates may be in running in AP.

If Telangana Bill does not pass in Lok Sabha, as seems likely, people in Telangana would know that there is only one party which can deliver on Telangana and that is BJP - not TRS, not INC, not even TDP.

If people in Telangana want Telangana they would be looking at a party which projects strength at the national level, and that is BJP.

What is interesting is that BJP has taken the plunge before the Bill comes up in AP Assembly, where Kiran Kumar Reddy and Jagan Mohan Reddy would have played their delaying politics and earning brownie points with SeemaAndhra people. So before attention can shift to the Assembly and those actors, BJP has made its position clear.

With DMK, SP, TMC making their position clear, BJP felt emboldened to take the step. Any case after the state elections not many parties would be coming to help INC to get majority for their plans. Even JD-U still has not got their special package for Bihar, and with Lalu out of jail, JD-U may itself be a bit miffed with Congress. Sharad Yadav too may not be too keen on giving JD-U support to Congress.

BJP has decided to be a player in Andhra Pradesh. A timely decision.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 16 Dec 2013 02:27

So the game starts again. Lets see how it proceeds this time.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 16 Dec 2013 02:58

Telangana issue: Naidu finds an ally in Modi

Telugu Desam party president N. Chandrababu Naidu returned home from Bhopal on Saturday pleased with the response of the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi to his stand against bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh without first addressing the concerns of Seemandhra.

The Gujarat Chief Minister assured Mr. Naidu that the BJP would not be a party to passing “a legally defective and infirm Bill” in Parliament.

The two leaders were closeted for nearly one hour after the swearing-in of Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan in the morning.

Mr. Modi reiterated what BJP president Rajnath Singh said on Friday that the party, while remaining firmly committed to the creation of Telangana, was equally determined to safeguard the concerns of Seemandhra.

This was stated by TDP vice-president K. Rammohan Rao, who was among the leaders who accompanied Mr. Naidu to Bhopal.

The TDP president rubbed shoulders with the entire top brass of the BJP, including L. K. Advani, Mr. Rajnath Singh, Sushma Swaraj, besides Mr. Modi.

In a sign of the blossoming friendship between the two parties, Mr. Naidu received invitations to attend the swearing-in ceremonies of all the three BJP Chief Ministers — Vasundhara Raje (Rajasthan), Mr. Chouhan (MP) and Raman Singh (Chhattisgarh). But he could make it only to Bhopal as the Assembly was in session.

Let us see if these news are anything right. Come Feb the Parl party of BJP may just vote in favor. They voted in favor of FSB and they are now ready to vote for Lokpal bill. They do make some noise before each celebrity bill but in the end they pass them. Except in RS, INC really does not need BJP's help on the T-bill.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 16 Dec 2013 03:15

Narendra Modi, Chandrababu Naidu cozy up

There is every possibility of the Telugu Desam and the BJP striking a pre-poll alliance as leaders of both parties on Saturday met for talks.

Though not for the first time, TD chief N. Chandrababu Naidu, who went to Bhopal on Saturday to attend BJP Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan’s swearing-in-ceremony, had one-on-one meetings with the party’s Prime Ministerial candidate Narendra Modi and other top leaders, including L.K. Advani and party presidnet Rajnath Singh.

Naidu, a key ally of the NDA during its 1998-2004 regime, not only shared a common dais at the ceremony, but also mingled with BJP leaders to send out a political message that he would be their electoral partner in Andhra Pradesh.

“There is nothing like a permanent enemy or friend in politics, both of us are antiCongress; as far as electoral understanding is concerned it is too early now, but things will definitely move in that direction,” a top BJP leader told this newspaper.

Naidu had earlier shared a dais with Modi in New Delhi and held talks.

Interestingly it was Naidu, while he was in the NDA, who had objected to the continuance of Modi as the Gujarat Chief Minister after the Gujarat communal riots. He had even refused to field his nominee for the Lok Sabha Speaker's post in protest.

Naidu had also accused the BJP to be communal after it lost power in 2004 and had announced snapping of ties with BJP.

“Now things are changed, TD is against Congress, and Narendra Modi is on a mission to unseat the UPA to establish NDA, anti-Congress-ism is the bonding now,” said a leader who accompanied Naidu to Bhopal.

For the record, Naidu had not denied the chances of his party tying up with the BJP after meeting Mr Narendra Modi in Delhi. He had only said “nothing has been decided”.

It was earlier reported that YSR Congress chief Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy too had plans to support the BJP-led NDA in the 2014 postpoll scenario. He had told his party leaders that he was not interested in forging prepoll alliances with any party but would be “open” to giving support to any formation in the post-poll scene.

A BJP national leader on condition of anonymity said, “Jaganmohan Reddy recently met Rajnath Singh in Parliament Central Hall and offered 23 Lok Sabha seats if they support the United AP cause.”

By reading between lines, it looks like BJP did some real-politik tough talk with the regional satraps. They took full advantage of INC hara-kiri. First thing is they only want pre-poll alliance and next they want more MPs seats on their party symbol and third thing is no open-united-AP stuff. We want the T-sword as long as it works or until the state is formed. We can make some concessions in favor of seemandhra and there it ends.

In reality also, TDP is well suited for that role. He is working himself up with his back on the wall. His votebase is good fit for Modi's votebase and TDP is also not is a state where heavens will fall if T is given. They could work on a consensus. They will push a lot of united protogonists as MPs of BJP from Seemandhra. BJP does not have anyone who can win with BJP ideological stuff. They will get all new or celebrity/businessmen as contestants.

As Devesh garu says, if this happens the game will restart again with no guarantees to wanted results of Telangana elite.

Added later:
Let us watch how Congress will behave starting tomorrow.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 16 Dec 2013 03:29

Read somewhere that as BJP does not have their own cadre in AP, they would be using TDP's workers, albeit the candidates would be known heavyweights and personalities from SeemaAndhra fighting on BJP ticket and symbol.

Also read, TDP would leave majority of Lok Sabha seats to BJP while claiming a majority of Assembly seats for itself to fight.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 16 Dec 2013 03:40

RajeshA wrote:Read somewhere that as BJP does not have their own cadre in AP, they would be using TDP's workers, albeit the candidates would be known heavyweights and personalities from SeemaAndhra fighting on BJP ticket and symbol.

Also read, TDP would leave majority of Lok Sabha seats to BJP while claiming a majority of Assembly seats for itself to fight.

I read the same and that is a good deal if that happens. The IE news tells me that they played Jagan factor against TDP as well and I think they had worked out the split of seats too.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 16 Dec 2013 03:53

Folks,
I was just thinking. What happens if KKR decides to dissolve the Assembly tomorrow, or at the end of the Winter Session, without even taking up the T Bill? Is the president bound to take the recommendation of the Assembly to be dissolved, by a majority in the House?

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 16 Dec 2013 03:54

RajeshA wrote:Read somewhere that as BJP does not have their own cadre in AP, they would be using TDP's workers, albeit the candidates would be known heavyweights and personalities from SeemaAndhra fighting on BJP ticket and symbol.

Also read, TDP would leave majority of Lok Sabha seats to BJP while claiming a majority of Assembly seats for itself to fight.

Getting much in Seemandhra is less likely for BJP. BJP name works against voting whether for MLA or MP in Seemandhra as till recently BJP was abusing them. TDP may give space in some tough areas asking BJP to develop themselves there by pulling Congress leader and damaging Congress votebanks. Damaging Congress is what BJP can do to help themselves in Center as it results in less seats for Congress+ parties and get more seats in BJP+ kitty.

In Telangana, fair-sharing is possible. Since both BJP and TDP are for T, they can campaign together openly. On its part TDP should yeild more seats to BJP in T as TDP votebank was also damaged in some T-core areas. TDP can ask BJP to go after TRS and claim those votebanks. I see friction also. Where they can win, both have opportunity to win there. There will be fights, esp given state leaders attitude, as to how to share in those areas.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 16 Dec 2013 03:56

nageshks wrote:Folks,
I was just thinking. What happens if KKR decides to dissolve the Assembly tomorrow, or at the end of the Winter Session, without even taking up the T Bill? Is the president bound to take the recommendation of the Assembly to be dissolved, by a majority in the House?

If the bill is not introduced, then president has all the rights to reject. The president seems to be extra careful regarding this bifurcation.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 16 Dec 2013 04:00

ShyamSP wrote: In Telangana, fair-sharing is possible. Since both BJP and TDP are for T, they can campaign together openly. On its part TDP should yeild more seats to BJP in T as TDP votebank was also damaged in some T-core areas. TDP can ask BJP to go after TRS and claim those votebanks. I see friction also. Where they can win, both have opportunity to win there. There will be fights, esp given state leaders attitude, as to how to share in those areas.

I don't see any possibility of friction if the model is like MGR-Indira model. The top-leaders of TDP can be accommodated more into assembly seats with a guaranteed ministries. For parl they can yield to BJP. It is easy in T-region but will interesting to see how BJP can get their list of winnable candidates in Seemandhra. At the end both parties need to work to win and not some grand split just for the sake of coalition dharma. I don't think either CBN or Modi are fools so we are rest assured.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 16 Dec 2013 04:08

Muppalla garu,

I've said a lot about one particular group in Telangana which really wants the division. given your knowledge and links, you should start your research on which direction this group will take if T doesn't happen. they've put a lot of eggs in this basket.

One thing I can say for sure is that they will be disgruntled and bitter. they will become even more entrenched sworn enemies of TDP. and if BJP votes against Telangana, they will go to the utmost lengths to extract revenge by throwing every obstacle in BJP's way in Telangana.

in short, they will become ardent "devotees" of INC and anybody who allies with INC, including MIM and EJ's. what their stance will be wrt Jagan, I'm not quite sure. their dynamics with R's has always been peculiar. I would personally guess that they would in the end not be averse to a seat-sharing alliance with Jagan.

so, in essence, what we might see if Telangana doesn't happen is:

1. TRS merges into INC. and TRS backer's vote share will go to INC fully.
2. INC with TRS-component, and Jagan in his strongholds.
3. possibly, if INC can engineer it (?): the balance among the Kapu's finally shifting in favor of INC decisively (60-40).

so, in effect, INC might just engineer a majority share among V's, R's, and Kapu's.

if the above can be pulled off, it will be a major coup. TDP, even with its backing of BC's will find it very hard to beat that combination.

So, we are back to the future. INC returns triumphantly.

I really hope I'm wrong on the above. I hope INC fails at this project.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 16 Dec 2013 04:24

what worries me is this: if it's just an elite thing and more down-to-earth/commoners among those classes stay away from INC, it will be beneficial, as that will lead to realization even among the "underprivileged" among the elites to overturn their own strongmen for a better future.

but if they get polarized extensively on caste basis, then I see the danger of a new "consensus" that could put INC in power for another 15-20 years.

I really hope that it doesn't happen. at the very least, I hope there is a staunch section among R's and Kapu's which doesn't care for INC anymore. I really hope so.

as for the V's, if they let their bitterness get to them, they will go to extreme lengths. not good for AP in short run. and not good for THEM in long run. they need to choose wisely. leave emotions aside and think rationally. It's probably very difficult to do that right now, but they need to try, at least. the new generation which has been more insulated from the old rivalries should play their part in weaning away the last remnants of their fathers from old rivalries and resentments becoming central focus.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 16 Dec 2013 04:26

but all of the above is if T-bill fails and a new game starts.

also, what are the numbers right now? without BJP's vote, I don't think INC can pass the bill.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 16 Dec 2013 04:54

Devesh garu,

TDP+BJP will work even if divided. They are going after a certain social groupings.

If T does not form, any group has to be sold on a theme that they are returning to power and will deliver T. If the groups are not convinced then it will be very difficult for such a coup. In fact TRS will not merge with INC in case INC cannot deliver T. INC will seriously be in soup on both sides. Kapus on SA side going with INC is not guaranteed at all. Chiranjeevi or Botsa and anyone has to find a new home like Jagan or BJP (if it goes aggressive) or TDP. See the Unity-run photos of Vijayawada in Eenadu. Both INC and TDP MLAs together participated and what that means is INC is only namesake and it is basically over. Vijayawada is where politics can be read regarding "things to come". Just like an IPL open season, it is an open season with INC banned from bidding like that of Kochi team.

Based on whatever happened post Bhopal event, INC will be very aggressive this week to get T bill passed. Otherwise just like Chidu most of them have to think of sanyas from politics. I see a possibility of a checkmate due to what is moving underneath. ( I am scared of being overconfident) The INC honchos that stuck to INC during rain and shine are now moving away.

I don't know where will INC can get any strength in any groups if they don't deliver T by March 1st. They seriously did a very very bad job. They has 10 years to split it right by first creating a capital on the other side. For example they created Nagpur as Winter capital in Maharashtra. They haven't plotted it right at all and they definitely underestimated the region. Their advisors are seriously with no understanding of either regions. With so much time on their side, they only did knee jerk reactions and seriously thinking that there won't be any crooks than themselves.

INC actually does not need BJP if they can take lead like they did for Nuke bill.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 16 Dec 2013 05:14

interesting, so what you are saying is if T-bill fails, TRS will remain separate.

in that case, they will still have to ally with INC, no? they cannot ally with BJP b/c BJP is saying they will vote against. so allying with BJP is out of question as that would destroy their own base.

so whether they merge or not, TRS will ultimately ally with INC. what will Jagan do? will he support BJP post-elections? does he have that kind of independence from people who might ultimately be his benefactors? even if he does support, does BJP want this charlatan's support? that would forever tarnish them in AP as the people who supported an EJ.

but there is the added dimension of T-bill. Will Jagan support BJP as "gratitude" to show the people that he voted against INC?

even if he does, something tells me it will be temporary and he will look for some excuse or the other to withdraw at the earliest possible. if BJP can manage 200 LS seats, Jagan will become inconsequential. they don't really need him to form the govt. for that matter, even TRS will become inconsequential. and even TDP's power in the new NDA will be vastly lesser than what it used to be between 1998-'04.

in short, the real value of Modi, if he can pull off 200 in LS, might be the lame-ducking of some of the regional satraps who've grown horns under successive UPA govts. if both TRS and Jagan can be made to understand that in the grand scheme of things, they are nothing, it will be better for AP and also the country.

it will also mean that TDP will have to start thinking about their legacy and how they want to transition to the next phase and future direction.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 16 Dec 2013 05:22

continuing from Muppalla ji's prediction that TRS won't merge, how does that change the AP equations?

here are the assumptions:

1. T-bill fails.
2. TRS doesn't merge with INC.
3. Jagan continues his crusade against INC and TDP until the elections without getting into alliance with either of them, or the BJP or anybody else.

>>> given the above 3 points, it seems to me that the key will be how BJP and TDP fight the elections?
if there is a pre-poll seat-sharing agreement, it might have the biggest chance of ensuring pro-BJP, pro-TDP, anti-INC vote under NDA banner.

>>> if there is no seat-sharing, Jagan+TRS might end up with 75-100 seats combined. if these 2 make-up with INC, then INC needs to get around 70 seats to form govt.

>>> if Jagan plays the rebel and refuses to support anyone after the elections, we might get a hung assembly.

in fact, it might be in Jagan's best interests to milk this for all its worth. if he really wants to show that he's independent of INC, that might strike a chord with SA people. him with his 35-50 seats decides to sit out, AP might have to go to re-poll.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 16 Dec 2013 05:25

if we have people who are in the know with Jagan's coterie, they should see if the above scenario is plausible.

Jagan might play the maverick.

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 16 Dec 2013 05:31

Muppalla wrote:
ShyamSP wrote: In Telangana, fair-sharing is possible. Since both BJP and TDP are for T, they can campaign together openly. On its part TDP should yeild more seats to BJP in T as TDP votebank was also damaged in some T-core areas. TDP can ask BJP to go after TRS and claim those votebanks. I see friction also. Where they can win, both have opportunity to win there. There will be fights, esp given state leaders attitude, as to how to share in those areas.
I don't see any possibility of friction if the model is like MGR-Indira model. The top-leaders of TDP can be accommodated more into assembly seats with a guaranteed ministries. For parl they can yield to BJP. It is easy in T-region but will interesting to see how BJP can get their list of winnable candidates in Seemandhra. At the end both parties need to work to win and not some grand split just for the sake of coalition dharma. I don't think either CBN or Modi are fools so we are rest assured.

That model is not possible this time but eventually it will be so after 1-2 election cycles. Best thing for BJP is to go after areas where INC+TRS damaged TDP. TDP even if it goes aggressive it is less likely to get winnable seats there. BJP has chance to de-brainwash those areas in T and mold in their favor.

TDP has right-and-left mindset. But when it comes to non-religious policies, BJP and TDP have congruence. Failure of left in AP is what causing TDP to go with BJP. Left completely broke down in AP and is no more a political force more so in last 10 years. TDP's need for leftism is also gone. TDP needs to move full-time to development-oriented and BC-oriented in next phase and is perfectly compatible with Modism. Last 10-20 years he was playing cat-and-mouse game with YSR with game rules set by INC. But that needs to be replaced and AP needs to be put in the mode like in 1999 to set his terms in AP.

Modism is perfectly compatible with TDP and CBN found his new NTR.

Dasari · Post by **Dasari** » 16 Dec 2013 05:35

TDP has to be very careful here. If it is clear that TDP and BJP alliance is forming, I can bet that division process will be accelearted, passed in assembly and sent to president in time for the Feb budget session. If BJP doesn't back their words and instead passes the T bill in parliament, TDP is done for good in SA region, and congress-b will sweep SA very easily. If BJP votes against it, BJP will be toast in T area.

The game BJP+TDP is playing is that congress will fail to pass the bill in Assembly and it doesn't come to parliament in time. In the process they would like to champion both regions - division for one, equal justice to other.

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 16 Dec 2013 05:45

Run for unity pictures from Vijayawada. Both Congress and TDP participated.

http://www.eenadu.net/Homeinner.aspx?item=break107

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 16 Dec 2013 05:45

Dasari garu, the bill for sure will fail to pass in Assembly. It only needs introduction and that can happen even in the next 24 hours. But yes INC will move faster to get the state split as that is the only thing where it survives.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 16 Dec 2013 05:47

Dasari wrote:TDP has to be very careful here. If it is clear that TDP and BJP alliance is forming, I can bet that division process will be accelearted, passed in assembly and sent to president in time for the Feb budget session. If BJP doesn't back their words and instead passes the T bill in parliament, TDP is done for good in SA region, and congress-b will sweep SA very easily. If BJP votes against it, BJP will be toast in T area.

The game BJP+TDP is playing is that congress will fail to pass the bill in Assembly and it doesn't come to parliament in time. In the process they would like to champion both regions - division for one, equal justice to other.

Is it because TDP-BJP is confident that they can bring down the Central government itself in the current session, Dasari-ji? The salvo against the speaker is the opening of a new front? BJP can press the lack of confidence in the Speaker and defeat it on an entirely unrelated matter, forcing the Cong. government to pass a confidence motion to shore up its strength? If the confidence motion is defeated and the Government falls, then the Bill is toast, no?

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 16 Dec 2013 06:11

Dasari wrote:TDP has to be very careful here. If it is clear that TDP and BJP alliance is forming, I can bet that division process will be accelearted, passed in assembly and sent to president in time for the Feb budget session. If BJP doesn't back their words and instead passes the T bill in parliament, TDP is done for good in SA region, and congress-b will sweep SA very easily. If BJP votes against it, BJP will be toast in T area.

The game BJP+TDP is playing is that congress will fail to pass the bill in Assembly and it doesn't come to parliament in time. In the process they would like to champion both regions - division for one, equal justice to other.

TDP is friends with BJP, third front, Communists so there are other plays are at hand. Once Jan is over, there is no way INC can put bill unless BJP cooperates. Also in early January you'll have elections announcement for election codes to kick-in. Elections are likely to be starting in late March.

Some clues are here in the video.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F3IBFZowjz4
Sabbam Hari face to face with abn

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 16 Dec 2013 06:15

BC votes in AP will be on BJP with a BC becoming the P.M.. It is powerful glue itself even played as a undercurrent. The talk of addressing problems of Royal seema and coastal areas is a powerful slogan when mafia fully abandoned 25 MP seats. Anger on mafia will ensure mafia lose seats.

Bjp has cadre in all regions and votes and sympathy for bjp are there but it lost them due to sheer neglect. Now with Modi it will be back just like UP. youth are talking big about him.

Talk of addressing problems of division before division is a powerful message and may get 25 MP seats where Mafia seen as a backstabbing enemy. Jagan also has no option but to support this or come up with his own game.

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 16 Dec 2013 06:45

Congress is planning 'Run for split" from one Gandhi temple to another that are being built.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qJLmGM1y-Fc
Good response to 'Run for Unity' marathon in AP - Tv9

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 16 Dec 2013 07:04

Part of mobilisation for bjp. Modi covering all the base points like involvement of youth etc. Mafia is now desperate. Too many eggs in division basket as per diggi raja advise seems to be back firing.

Dasari · Post by **Dasari** » 16 Dec 2013 08:05

nageshks wrote:
Dasari wrote:TDP has to be very careful here. If it is clear that TDP and BJP alliance is forming, I can bet that division process will be accelearted, passed in assembly and sent to president in time for the Feb budget session. If BJP doesn't back their words and instead passes the T bill in parliament, TDP is done for good in SA region, and congress-b will sweep SA very easily. If BJP votes against it, BJP will be toast in T area.

The game BJP+TDP is playing is that congress will fail to pass the bill in Assembly and it doesn't come to parliament in time. In the process they would like to champion both regions - division for one, equal justice to other.
Is it because TDP-BJP is confident that they can bring down the Central government itself in the current session, Dasari-ji? The salvo against the speaker is the opening of a new front? BJP can press the lack of confidence in the Speaker and defeat it on an entirely unrelated matter, forcing the Cong. government to pass a confidence motion to shore up its strength? If the confidence motion is defeated and the Government falls, then the Bill is toast, no?

Nageshji, Next few days will be crucial. If the division is stalled for now, there is no doubt that TDP+BJP alliance will benefit both parties. If Congress fails to pass the bill under this backdrop of constant rhetoric of TDP+BJP in favor of fair and equitable division, their strategy of wiping out TDP from AP has in fact boomeranged on them. So we will see hectic maneuvers from Congress to push this forward.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 16 Dec 2013 08:23

Dasari garu, TOI reports Shinde doesn't want to bring the bill to AP assy and instead rely on Late YSR statement in AP Assy before the 2009 elections!!!

So they want to do a Radcliffe Award and present it in Delhi.

Dasari · Post by **Dasari** » 16 Dec 2013 09:41

KKR called sick today. Speaker puts the bill in assembly without any BAC discussion. The clock for 42 days starts now. They have to discuss the bill now after the formalities are approved in BAC meeting this afternoon. It is a kind of victory for pro-separatists. So you can imagine the congress strategy. What would be KKR's plan? Is he cooperating with with Congress high command or using all means to delay it?

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 16 Dec 2013 10:10

Dasari wrote:KKR called sick today. Speaker puts the bill in assembly without any BAC discussion. The clock for 42 days starts now. They have to discuss the bill now after the formalities are approved in BAC meeting this afternoon. It is a kind of victory for pro-separatists. So you can imagine the congress strategy. What would be KKR's plan? Is he cooperating with with Congress high command or using all means to delay it?

Good cop (Kiran Kumar Reddy). Bad cop (Nadella Manohar).

====

Seemandhra MLAs are burning and tearing off the bill. At this rate they will take whole 42 days to fight.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 16 Dec 2013 20:00

Nannapaneni Rajakumari, TDP MLC seems to have been dragged on the ground assembly. many other things are happening. Political drama in AP is going on to a disgusting levels.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 17 Dec 2013 01:59

I think one should not underestimate the pull of Modi in SeemaAndhra.

People there would be getting the whiff about a government change in Delhi. Many there too expect Modi to be the next PM. If they wish to retain influence over Delhi, they would be opting for a coalition which promises them presence in the corridors of power in Delhi.

YSRCP may get a good number of seats in AP Assembly, but YSRCP MPs do not really add to Andhra Pradesh's influence in Delhi. With INC opting out and becoming a hate object in SeemaAndhra, the only game in town as far as influence in Delhi is concerned is NDA, i.e. BJP and any party that aligns with BJP, and that would be TDP.

Other than 4-5 seats which YSRCP may take, BJP-TDP would be sweeping the rest of SeemaAndhra, i.e. 20 seats. BJP may get another 1 or 2 seats in Telangana. TDP too.

So my expectation is
NDA 24/42
TRS 8/42
INC 5/42
YSRCP 5/42

Just a wild hunch looking at the mood!

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 17 Dec 2013 06:20

Anger in mafia leaders on Delhi mafia is quit huge and they now learned their true position is nothing but slaves and present day mafia is no longer a congress which at least expected to listen without insulting. Now people like jairam ramesh are out right insulting. Good realization.

One more elephant no one wish to talk is this strong belief that mafia popping up of YSRC is due to EJ factor. Most fear that is this is true then their long-term position in side mafia needs them to convert. No on want to convert.

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 17 Dec 2013 07:44

Narayana Rao wrote:Anger in mafia leaders on Delhi mafia is quit huge and they now learned their true position is nothing but slaves and present day mafia is no longer a congress which at least expected to listen without insulting. Now people like jairam ramesh are out right insulting. Good realization.

One more elephant no one wish to talk is this strong belief that mafia popping up of YSRC is due to EJ factor. Most fear that is this is true then their long-term position in side mafia needs them to convert. No on want to convert.

In one of BR meeting a few years ago, I told that it is Seemandhra that they are separating. That along with EJ factor is one of the threads we need to keep in mind in our analysis. There are multiple threads of goals and strategies for this division or non-division. If you're looking for deeper reason you may not find but all happenings are fitting multiple threads. Politics are played to meet one of those goals.

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 17 Dec 2013 08:04

Looking at AP reorg bill, nothing is there for Seemandhra but they get to get 60% debt and liabilities post division. Much of the debt was used for Hyderabad and interestingly they will pay for it even though they don't have right on Hyderabad revenue. Good job Congress!

===
AP reorg bill is here.
http://www.aplegislature.org/en_GB/c/do ... ef8d110178

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 17 Dec 2013 09:38

ShyamSP wrote:Looking at AP reorg bill, nothing is there for Seemandhra but they get to get 60% debt and liabilities post division. Much of the debt was used for Hyderabad and interestingly they will pay for it even though they don't have right on Hyderabad revenue. Good job Congress!

===
AP reorg bill is here.
http://www.aplegislature.org/en_GB/c/do ... ef8d110178

how exactly did you reach the conclusion that "much" of the debt was spent on Hyderabad? rhetoric will not suffice on this one. you'll have to give me numbers. total AP public debt as of today is 1.8 Lakh crore. so, as per the bill, Telangana will inherit a share of .74 Lakh crores and AP will inherit 1.06 Lakh crores.

per the link below:
http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes ... istry-note

According to the note, Telangana's share (including Hyderabad) in tax and non-tax revenue for 2012-13 was Rs 61,414.13 crore, with Hyderabad contributing Rs 20,022.21 crore. Interestingly, coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema - jointly referred to as Seemandhra - together surpassed Telangana by contributing Rs 66,152.61 crore in revenue.

after bifurcation, there is no reason to expect that SA investments will continue to flow in to Hyderabad at the same rate. what this means is by the end of the next 10 years, Hyderabad's tax revenues (as a % of the T+AP states' revenues) might very well drop by close to 25%. as another capital is developed in SA, there is no reason to expect that revenue share of Hyd will not witness a relative drop.

as of right now, what we have is T (without Hyderabad) providing 31.5% of the revenues. if you add Hyderabad, it comes out to 48%. so, essentially, the GOI estimates that Hyderabad will witness a roughly 35-40% decrease in its share of revenues to the combined Tax revenues of Telangana and AP.

that's drastic, you might say. but it might very well turn out to be true. there is no reason to expect that SA elites, given the burden of building their own capital, will continue to invest so heavily in Hyderabad.

Dasari · Post by **Dasari** » 17 Dec 2013 11:08

Devesh,

I don't buy these estimates that 10 years from now that Hyderabad's tax revenues in relative terms will drop to 25%. With truncated revenue basis and huge debt, the rest of AP will struggle for years to build a capital to rival that of Hyderabad. Centre is not going to help a penny.

Even assuming that the Hyderbad's tax basis, in equivalent terms, drops to 25% linearly over the 10 years, and the total revenue basis on both sides become equal, it means for the 10 internediate years Telanaga roobed the revenues of the rest of the AP. What kind of justice is this? The concept of joint capital is the most deceptive scheme devised by congress to cheat the people of SA. All it does is that SA doesn't get any share of tax revenues of Hyderabad while protecting the tax basis of Hyderabad. This is another reason why the tax revenues of Hyderabad will not dive much.

Even British did not divide India this one sided as they knew that they had to eventually rule both sides, and besides they had some instincts of justice. But all congress wants is 2014 elections, and they are sure that the deceptive machinery of congress will buy off the other side by 2019. That is India they nurtured for more tha 50 years. There is only one explanation for this - congress treats Trlugu people with contempt. T separatists may be joyful now, as even in their wildest dreams they never thought this is ever possible. Let me say that there is nothing special about the movement or their demands. They happened be at the right place at right time (or one can say, wrong place at wrong time). It is like pakistan getting US benefits for 30-40 years as they happened to be in a strategic location. Just wait until the elections are over, the tables will be turned. When the division happens in 2-3 years from now, the bill will look completely the other way, and T separtists will be begging to get even half of what the current bill is providing. That is the irony of the division and the saga of AP. It is like the story of monkey and the two cats.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 17 Dec 2013 11:32

Dasari,

you can buy or not buy. but it is a common sense argument that a lot of the investment flowing from SA business tycoons will get diverted into building a new capital for AP. and also, as shown by the numbers in my previous post, SA currently contributes 52% of the revenues, and they will have the burden of 58% of the public debt. that's not a "huge" disparity. comparisons to British, calling it "huge" debt burden, etc are all dramatizations which are not grounded in reality.

what "wildest dreams" of T separatists? we had only one dream: separate Telangana. there are no other "wilder" or "wildest" dreams. don't know what you mean by that. the 10 districts of Telangana, including Hyderabad, that has always been the T-vadi demand whether in 1969 or now.

ok, if "Telangana" is a strategic location, then what the heck is the long stretch of uninterrupted fertile land all the way from Vishakha to TN border????
really, what do you call that?

and your last line is a freudian slip: either you will remain with us or we will screw you until your children and their children also keep paying for your "sins". when you are fondly hoping for such an outcome, what is the basis of your grand-standing?

Lilo · Post by **Lilo** » 17 Dec 2013 12:03

What's this stupidity about "future investments will slow down in Hyd" so its an equal equal to the loss of legitimate share in expected revenues from its current assets to rest of AP ?
Either maliciously this falsehood is being peddled or people peddling it have no basic idea of ownership and investment returns (I.e economics or finance) to peddle such stupid claims..

What happens to the fate of investment flow into Hyd's assets in a future T is entirely in T govt's hands.
But what happens to the future of revenue flows from the state capital's current assets is entirely a question of how much was taken(or withheld) from each of the region(in past 60 years) to invest in the assets of current capital called Hyderabad.
If 60% is the contribution of SA(including the central share apportioned to the state on population basis) then 60% of current revenues from current assets should be apportioned to SA regions in perpetuity. Or the present value of future cash flows from these current assets has to be calculated and given as a lump sum to the treasury of the new SA state.
If 80% is the contribution then 80% should be the share.

Again let me repeat

First there is no basis for giving onlee the debts of AP to SA (when much of it was incurred in developing the infra in capital) .
Second the revenues of Hyderabad are the AP people's revenues - they are generating onlee because of 60 years of investments by AP govt and the common people in its infrastructure with a belief in the common capital.
Third the future trajectory has nothing to do with the apportioning of revenue streams from current assets of Hyderabad.

Lilo · Post by **Lilo** » 17 Dec 2013 12:10

devesh wrote: ....

and your last line is a freudian slip: either you will remain with us or we will screw you until your children and their children also keep paying for your "sins". when you are fondly hoping for such an outcome, what is the basis of your grand-standing?

Devesh ji,
First you speak nonsense. Then when replied with an allegorical tale of cat and monkey (apt to the situation) , you allege it as a Freudian slip.

Let me point out your earlier nonsense is more qualified to be called a Freudian slip going by your own metrics of psych analysis.