Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

[RajeshA]

Published on Dec 16, 2013
JVM-P member resigns to join BJP: Times of India

HAZARIBAG: Kunwar Udaybhan Narayan Singh, a prominent member of the Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik) party, tendered his resignation on Sunday and expressed his desire to join the BJP for contesting the Lok Sabha elections from Chatra.

It is learnt that Udaybhan Narayan Singh was the member of the central committee of JVM(P) just before he left the party.

It may be mentioned here that Singh is the nephew of Hazaribag MLA Saurav Narayan Singh, who is the grandson of the late Raja Bahadur Kamakhya Narayan Singh of Ramgarh. Earlier in October, two prominent OBC leaders Manish Jaiswal and Baleshwar Kumar, too joined BJP in the wake of the recent political developments.

[Comer]

Thats a good assessment of TN. A few more visits by Modi can change tables I think. Think about this - fringe TN muslim groups are supporting Modi. The lack of alternatives means AIADMK is becoming the default. I am sure BJP realizes that chances like these where a leadership/choice vacuum comes are very rare. A few now & 5 years of Modi as PM , cracking the whip with performance can see fortunes change.

That is true. I believe there exists a vacuum and BJP must fill it before somebody else does. Apart from a few visits by NaMo, there has to be local and experienced politician to carry it forward. I am not sure the existing BJP leaders are dyanmic enough. BJP had brought in Thirunavukkarasu, a former minister in MGR cabinet, earlier. But at that time the BJP was floundering and didn't use him well and he left and went to Congress. Identifying somebody who can sustain the momentum is the key.

[Muppalla]

BJP Tsu'NaMo' washes away Congress – IBTL Opinion Poll 2013

BJP named its PM candidate in late September and 4 major North Indian states, along with north eastern state Mizoram went to Polls in November-December. We decided to gauge the public mood across India, to ascertain if at all there was a Modi waves flowing. Were people really angry with Congress? The results were astounding, not because BJP was projected to get an all time high number of seats and Congress an all time Low number of seats but because there were different simultaneous waves running in various parts of the country. In general all the states were affected by Local Factors, but there was a prevalent national mood. This time the respondents were more vocal and assertive than ever before. We would not reveal the methodology of these projections. Also there is no question of releasing any kind of data wrt respondents because it is unethical to reveal details of respondent and defies survey ethics. In Total 22,368 voters were covered across 188 LS seats.

Respondent Profile


Who would you prefer as the next Prime Minister of India?


State Wise Projections as on December 2013


Party breakdown


Here is Modi wave:

"Rajya me Netaji, Desh me Modiji (Mulayam in UP, NaMo in India)" quipped a Yadav youngster from Ettawah. A Samajwadi Party supporter!

"We know he (Yedurappa) would lose here, but we still voted for his party KJP in Assembly because he is our leader, but in 2014, our vote is for Modi" Mangalore guy.

"We are confused whether to go with TDP or YSRC in Assembly, but for Lok Sabha, we would vote for Modi" Seemandhrite working in Hyderabad.

“In Assembly its going to be only TRS! centre BJP” A Telengana movement supporter

A Bihari, who is a strong Laloo supporter, said “I would vote RJD in Assembly 2015 and Modi in LS 2014.”

This phenomenon was felt pretty much across India and confirms that a NaMoWave is flowing across the nation.

I guess we can now take this as baseline as the year is ending and 2014 is an election year.

[Nitesh]

Could you please translate? at least a summary

gist of the news

It seems AK 47 is trying to emulate Mr. Raj thakrey, and said something against UP-Bihari migrants, they are up in arms against him

[SriKumar]

Could you please translate? at least a summary

Headline: Dharnas and protests against Kejriwal at many places [and effigies burnt?? (putle phooke)]

Gist: There's an indefinite fast going on at Jantar mantar, done by pravasis of U.P. and Bihar (pravasi = people belonging to those states living in Delhi). Rallies were taken out from various places in NCR and culminated at Jantar-M where effigies (were burnt ?). THe group demanded the arrest of AK for making comments against U.P. and Biharites. The article was not explicit in what those comments were, but their leader Avinash Singh said that UP and Biharites are not a burden to Delhi, in fact UP/Biharites take the burden of Delhites. They compared him with Raj Thakre. This is the second day of the protests, which as yet, is indefinite. A case has been registered by them against AK.

Added later: the last column has some details. It seems that on 24th July, AK threatened Avinash Singh on his mobile phone and asked him to leave Delhi or else he might be seriously harmed. A second, similar threat was made 2 days later, via mobile phone. Mahendra Park police station was informed of this the same day.

[Kakkaji]

Date of the above article is November 20th. Election results subsequently showed that these demonstrations did not dent AAP much during voting. Posting this article now on BRF is irrelevant IMHO.

[Hari Seldon]

^^ Yup. Mea culpa. I found it on twitter, read it and posted here w/o looking at the date part.

[svenkat]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vairamuthu

Kallikattu Idhihasam
Kallikkattu Edhihasam (the epic of Kallikkadu, in literal translation) is one of his novels. It tells the agonising tale of a marginal farmer of a riverbed region of the Theni belt in southern Tamil Nadu. Kallikattu Ithikasam" - a confluence of various emotions like sadness, sufferings and depression—crammed his mind for more than four decades. Finally, when it exploded, the natives of `Kallikadugal' found their biographies in the book. But with a silver lining. The novel won him the Sahitya Akademi award for Best Literary Work in 2003.

Vairamuthu holds the record of winning maximum number of National Film Award for Best Lyrics (six times).

It would be wrong to dismiss him as 'just' a film lyricist.Let us not forget that 'pudhu kavithai' has had a rebirth under him.To appeal to people so consistently is no mean achievement.Though from the DMK 'rationalist' stable,he has never stooped to the low levels thats the trademark of that movement.My last post on the issue.

[Yagnasri]

Muppallaji, the poll prediction need to be posted in NM THREAD.

[Vipul]

Muslim votes only if communal violence bill cleared.

Communal Violence Prevention Bill cleared by (congress) Cabinet.

[muraliravi]

^^^ Muppallaji,

On the IBTL predictions, I am very suspect about BJP numbers in Andhra, Haryana, Orissa, West Bengal, Kerala. IBTL has given BJP 11 seats in these states and my guess is they wont even cross 1-2 seats all these states put together. Even Bihar, I am very doubtful of the 25 number considering lalu making a strong comeback. He will at least ensure that his yadav+muslim base stands by him.

My guess is that even with a wave, they will hit close to 190.

[Muppalla]

muraliravi, see their breadth and depth of the sample. I think it is a possibility and he gives the examples of assembly Vs LS differentiation. If a wave is identified it is possible.

[Vipul]

Muslim demands for giving votes.

Most of the demands were listed out by Dr Syed Zafar Mahmood, former member of Sachar committee, who the organisers had called to give a presentation. Highlights of the demands were having fast-track courts to try Muslims accused of terror charges, providing compensation of Rs 50 lakh to those who are judicially acquitted of terror allegations, implementation of the prevention of targeted violence bill, making scheduled caste definition religion neutral, 67 per cent reservation in jobs and educational seats for minorities and establishment of Indian Wakf Service.

[Rahul Mehta]

attn : dear johneeG , ravi_g , Hari Seldon , RajeshA

I think the crucial question is: is it good to have an unelected(i.e. undemocratic) post that sits above elected leaders? Why should one assume that lokpal will not be corrupt? If the PM, CM, and others can be corrupt, then what stops the lokpal from being corrupt? If the PM, CM and others are corrupt, they are booted out by the people in elections, but what about lokpal(especially, if he wields control over the elected representatives also)?

No Congress, BJP etc MP will ever dare to ask this question "what if Lokpal becomes corrupt". And a bigger question is "what if Lokpal becomes MNC-agent" . And a still bigger question is "why is every Congress/BJP leader scared to death to ask this question"? Because the MNC-owners have threatened dire consequences on that leader, if he dares to ask this question. IOW, all MPs are being forced to let the Lokpal bill go thru.

Lokpal is nothing but handing over "administrative territories" to foreigners. Just as when one king loses to another, the loser has to hand over some territory to winner; same way, the national-elite which was controlling CBI, investigation, prosecution etc has to now handover these administrative areas to MNC-owners. And MNC-owners will run it via their agents like Santosh Hegde. Indian elite never got Supreme Court of India and RBI. Both remained foreign-owned institutions except for few years under Devi Indira Amma's regime. Even LBS could NOT dare to take Scjs and RBI away from UK\USA control. But at least investigation and prosecution was with Indian elitemen. Now they lost it via Lokpals.

Garu, sorry for giving the wrong impression. I have studied law enough to understand that no law exists that cannot be misused and no use exists of any law, for a clear minded man.

This is classic argument used to rationalize all bad law-proposals and also reject all good law-proposals. The argument is "1% = 99%". There are some laws extremely prone to foreign hijack, while some laws highly immune to foerign hijack. eg Lokpal system is best system for foreign hijack --- MNC-owners need to bribe only 11 Janlokpals. Where as RTR, JurySys would require MNC-owners to bribes 10s of crores of citizen-voters and crores of Jurors. Hence it is immune ti foreign hijack. But then , all this "1% = 99%" arguments are always there.

You ask me, Anna ji is fighting the limited battle this time, that of allowing nationalist forces to regroup. The anti-corruption plank may be abandoned tactically and a development plank may be started now, since only a 'pro' idea clears up the mind unlike an 'anti' idea which blocks up a mind.

Anna is doing what paid-media asks him to do. Anna is cunning, shrewed and he can guess what type of show to do so that paid-media will show his pictures everywhere. Ford Foundation used him in roun-one, but in round-two, Ford Foundation needed a face that can gel well with youngsters, and so Ford Foundation decided to give more focus to AK. This has hurt ego of Anna and so now he is showing some nationalist posture with hope that he can fool nationalists. But tomorrow he gets offer for 5 times more media coverage, he will be more than happy to throw all the mud he can on Swami Ramdevji, NaMo, BJP, RSS , anyone and everyone.

Let me give you one example to show what a publicity hungry freak this Anna guy is --- he refused to demand expulsion of Bangladeshies, because he knows that Saudi Arabia which gives big bucks to many TV channels wont like it !!! I can cite many examples. But this one example should be enough.

=====

sAAP's buffoonery in full bloom...

AAP to organize 'broom yatra' in Gujarat to 'expose' Modi govt

The Aam Aadmi Party had earlier said that it may contest on all 26 Lok Sabha seats in Gujarat, though the final decision is yet to be taken.

Bring it on. The more the pseudos attempt to 'expose' modi, the more exposure he gets...

Do not underestimate the power of the Dark Side aka MNC-owners.

There are many skeletons in NaMo's cupboards. And people of Gujarat paid no attention because Congress has 10 times more skeletons. But this AK comes with "high hopes" of corruption-free regime that middle class has been aspiring since 1951, and middle class thinks that NaMo\BJP cant deliver a corruption free regime.

Gujarat as 4 crore voters, of which some 1 crore are middle class and above, and some 2 crore are lower middle class, and 1 crore lower class (approx). Of these 1 crore middle class, and 2 crore lower middle class, some 75% = 2.25 crore will vote . With help of MNC-paid media, AK may manage to get some 20 lakh to 30 lakh voters using anti-corruption platform. This will create a loss of 20 lakh votes to NaMo in Gujarat. And so 5-8 seats may decrease. Now ONLY option BJP=NaMo has is to surrender to MNC-owners and ask them NOT to project AK in middle class, and project AK in lower class only. This will cost India an arm and a leg.

====

Rahul Mehta : why BJP leaders didnt demand release of religion\language data of census-2011 till date.

Hints :

1. Who benefits if data had come in jan-2012

2. Who benefits if data had come in jan-2014?

3. Who benefits if data had come in jun-2014?

4. Who has power to force BJP MPs to remain silent?

RajeshA: It's one thing to have the data, it's another thing to have a plan what to do with it! Such data cuts both ways. If the Hindus are shown to have shrunk to say 70%, then there is going to be a huge uproar and the whole narrative would change to the conversion race and demographic explosion! Would BJP want to run in Lok Sabha elections with conversion being the sole focus? They would not be able to avoid that once the data comes out. It is going to be very divisive. So would that be better suited to run an election campaign on? Hardly. The claim of Hindus that India belongs to them and they have the right to determine the course of India's destiny is often based on the fact that still 80% of Indians are Hindus. Does Hindutva want to jeopardize that? Hardly. If a huge increase in conversion is shown, again organizations like VHP would have to answer for it, why have they allowed such proselytization. Why are they sitting on their lazy butts? Would they want to answer that? Hardly.

There is only one plan. Get power and then try to change the situation from inside, try to win back lost territory from that vantage point, and try to do that without causing whole of India to explode.

Well, IMO, nation would have been better off if nation had known about the rising % of Bangladeshis, rising % of Muslims due to birth rate and conversions in Hindus. Napolean told me that bad news should be brought in speediest possible way , good news may wait. Earlier we know, earlier will activists will realize that Congress\BJP\AAP leaders are NOT interested in dealing with these 3 and many more difficult problems . We could have had this data in jan-2012, and now we may get it in jan-2014, assuming MNC-owners agree to help NaMo. The activists would have left IAC\Lokpal\Anna nonsense if the falling % numbers had come in jan-2012. And AAP would not have come into existence. If BJP leaders dont have plan to deal with this problem, then all the more reason nationalists should dump them and look for alternatives.

====

All in all, AFAIS, the tool and hope are "activists" not leaders. If activists dont get information about problems and solutions, no wonder they will sit idle of go after pied pipers like AK\Anna. And whole nation loses time. Imagine, if I convince all 10 lakh doctors in India to go on strike or some timepass activities for 10 days = 240 hors. And say patients are suffering. Say a doctor's time is worth Rs 1000 per hour. Then it is not loss of (Rs 1000 per hour * 10 * 240 hours * 10 lakh ) = some rupee amount, but many lives will be also lost. Now IMO, only doctors we have is say some 10 lakhs activists in India who *want* to work for free. These activists = doctors should be spending time in knowing problems , LEGISLATIVE\ADMINISTRATIVE solutions and informing citizens about these problems\solutions and forcing MPs to print these laws. Instead, assorted parties and leaders are asking these activists to shout slogans, rally, wear leaders' masks, wield jhadu, wear cap, hold banners with their pictures , and wasting away activists time. The damage due to delay of solutions could be immense.

[Shanmukh]

BJP Tsu'NaMo' washes away Congress – IBTL Opinion Poll 2013

Thanks for the opinion poll, Muppalla-ji. There are a couple of interesting points about the poll and a quote of interest in the article.

The first point of interest is that it makes no assumptions about alliances in TN. I think that over the last few days, both PMK and MDMK have returned (or are returning) to the NDA, while DMDK is also being wooed. There is some talk that KMK (a party with some influence in western TN) might also join the BJP. If this grand alliance fructifies, then there is a very good chance that BJP will put up a very good performance in TN (maybe not in the number of seats, but certainly in terms of the vote share). How many NDA will win is open to question, though even a conservative estimate would put it at 5 or so.

The second point of interest is that the BJP is not allied with JVM(P) in Jharkhand. I suspect that is going to happen as well. It is very likely that Babulal Marandi will return, along with Yeddy, Maheshwar Singh and Mahameghabahan Aira Kharabela Swain (in one form or the other). While this makes BJP strong, it also makes it more difficult for the BJP to find post poll allies (if this were to happen, in both TN and Odisha, BJP would be the principal opposition to BJD and JJ).

The last point of interest is Assam. If the BJP plays its cards right, and has NaMo galvanise the Assam BJP cadre, and it inducts the AGP into its alliance (AGP has greatly weakened, and is really on its deathbed), then a Hindu polarisation in favour of the grand alliance cannot be ruled out. AIUDF has scared the Hindus, and they may well rally behind NaMo if he pays some attention to the region. I am rather annoyed at the BJP for not having a single NaMo rally in Assam until now. Are they so indifferent and callous towards the NE?

In addition to this, there is a very curious quote in the article.

In some states other leaders were more popular than Narendra Modi, like Varun Gandhi in Bengal, Jayalalitha in Tamil Nadu, and Raj Thackeray in Maharashtra etc.

Ehh - Is Varun Gandhi that popular in Bengal? Does he even speak Bengali? What is the source of his popularity in WB?

And Raj Thackeray? Do they really prefer Raj to NaMo in Maharashtra?

[Muppalla]

Varun being popular than NaMo is not possible. However, in some localities Raj can very popular than NaMo

[Muppalla]

maraliravi, even 190 puts Modi as PM. That is all good. But INC getting to less than 100 has multiple results within six months into next term.

[Shanmukh]

^^^ Muppallaji,

On the IBTL predictions, I am very suspect about BJP numbers in Andhra, Haryana, Orissa, West Bengal, Kerala. IBTL has given BJP 11 seats in these states and my guess is they wont even cross 1-2 seats all these states put together. Even Bihar, I am very doubtful of the 25 number considering lalu making a strong comeback. He will at least ensure that his yadav+muslim base stands by him.

My guess is that even with a wave, they will hit close to 190.

MuraliRavi-ji,
JMT. So take it as you will.

Andhra - If BJP goes with TDP, I can easily visualise them getting a couple of seats at least (this is exceptionally conservative).

Orissa - Sangeeta Kumari Singh Deo in Bolangir, Juel Oram in Sundargarh, and (if he returns) Mahameghabahan Aira Kharabela Swain in Balasore all have decent chances of winning. One of the three would click, don't you think?

WB - BJP has a decent chance in Alipur Duars, and Krishnanagar, I think (Can someone from Bengal confirm it?). Hopefully one will click.

Kerala - There is a genuine contempt for the UPA and its pro minority policies. In most of the places, it is the Left that is going to benefit from the Hindu anger, but in Trivandrum, Palakkad, and Kasargod, it could be the BJP that might benefit. As a case in point, BJP won some 30K votes in the recent bypoll in Neyattinakara in Trivandrum (this was much before NaMo was made PM candidate). With NaMo's anointment, the BJP might well win in one of the three places.

Haryana - Rao Birender Singh, who is the sitting MP from Gurgaon, is defecting to the BJP. I think he has the ability to win on his own, without any alliances. If BJP goes with INLD, then they might well win about 2 seats at least, don't you think?

[member_20317]

RM ji thanks for taking time to put in a reply.

Garu, sorry for giving the wrong impression. I have studied law enough to understand that no law exists that cannot be misused and no use exists of any law, for a clear minded man.

This is classic argument used to rationalize all bad law-proposals and also reject all good law-proposals. The argument is "1% = 99%". There are some laws extremely prone to foreign hijack, while some laws highly immune to foerign hijack. eg Lokpal system is best system for foreign hijack --- MNC-owners need to bribe only 11 Janlokpals. Where as RTR, JurySys would require MNC-owners to bribes 10s of crores of citizen-voters and crores of Jurors. Hence it is immune ti foreign hijack. But then , all this "1% = 99%" arguments are always there.

RM ji you are probably an engineer and just the way you were interested in making machines and systems. I was very interested during my pathshala days in figuring out legal loopholes. That later on became my profession or at least a part of it. Moreover, there is a lot lot big set of population that is engaged in this manner. I am not even the best. Because of professional involvement I do not have to rationalize on law. In fact part of the reason I rant on BRF is because I know how law is used (abused). Thus while I agree with you in principle on ideas like Jurysys, RTR, Information dissemination, but because of actual practice I know it cannot be done as easily as you probably believe. I and the team I belong to has already used RTI/GAAPs/IT/VAT/Coy Law to do things which will put me in the corrupt list in your books. I also know of so called honorable international prize winning legal luminaries who would get classified as just plain blackmailers in my list (no I do not do blackmails I just happen to know from friend circle).

Not that I mind it if you cuss me for what I have done. I know you will do it only because of the peculiarity of your journey towards nationalism which is different from mine. This last sentence may seem like libertine but because of significant differences I know just exactly where I control it. I just choose not to discuss it being entirely willing to appear conflicted/kaleshpoorn instead of being conflicted/kaleshpoorn.

You are worried about JLP just wait till you see IFRS/CA-2013/Forex laws. My congruence with you would be there on the statement that JLP is the latest and bestest attack. And IMHO all legislation driven reforms would basically fail because law making is not the same as justice delivery. The very first thing that is taught to a law student in the first chapter itself is that Legal facts are different from logical facts. Therein lies the worm attack/torjan/back door etc.

You ask me, Anna ji is fighting the limited battle this time, that of allowing nationalist forces to regroup. The anti-corruption plank may be abandoned tactically and a development plank may be started now, since only a 'pro' idea clears up the mind unlike an 'anti' idea which blocks up a mind.

Anna is doing what paid-media asks him to do. Anna is cunning, shrewed and he can guess what type of show to do so that paid-media will show his pictures everywhere. Ford Foundation used him in roun-one, but in round-two, Ford Foundation needed a face that can gel well with youngsters, and so Ford Foundation decided to give more focus to AK. This has hurt ego of Anna and so now he is showing some nationalist posture with hope that he can fool nationalists. But tomorrow he gets offer for 5 times more media coverage, he will be more than happy to throw all the mud he can on Swami Ramdevji, NaMo, BJP, RSS , anyone and everyone.

Let me give you one example to show what a publicity hungry freak this Anna guy is --- he refused to demand expulsion of Bangladeshies, because he knows that Saudi Arabia which gives big bucks to many TV channels wont like it !!! I can cite many examples. But this one example should be enough.

See I would easily agree with you if you believe that Hindutva vaadis can be egotistical and can be penetrated just as easily by the professional agencies. But I cannot bring myself round to the idea that a man who is in that fashion an incapable or undercapable person (henceforth ‘IUP’) is the same as a sell out sob. IUP is at worst a confused participant and at worst a used contraceptive meant for the male organ. In fact for whatever it is worth Anna ji is worthy of respect for just this much that he allowed the 31% NaMo supporters to see that AK-47 is not a B-Team of BJP and is a Gandhi in the making.

[Kati]

^^^ Muppallaji,

On the IBTL predictions, I am very suspect about BJP numbers in Andhra, Haryana, Orissa, West Bengal, Kerala. IBTL has given BJP 11 seats in these states and my guess is they wont even cross 1-2 seats all these states put together. Even Bihar, I am very doubtful of the 25 number considering lalu making a strong comeback. He will at least ensure that his yadav+muslim base stands by him.

My guess is that even with a wave, they will hit close to 190.

MuraliRavi-ji,
JMT. So take it as you will.

Andhra - If BJP goes with TDP, I can easily visualise them getting a couple of seats at least (this is exceptionally conservative).

Orissa - Sangeeta Kumari Singh Deo in Bolangir, Juel Oram in Sundargarh, and (if he returns) Mahameghabahan Aira Kharabela Swain in Balasore all have decent chances of winning. One of the three would click, don't you think?

WB - BJP has a decent chance in Alipur Duars, and Krishnanagar, I think (Can someone from Bengal confirm it?). Hopefully one will click.

Kerala - There is a genuine contempt for the UPA and its pro minority policies. In most of the places, it is the Left that is going to benefit from the Hindu anger, but in Trivandrum, Palakkad, and Kasargod, it could be the BJP that might benefit. As a case in point, BJP won some 30K votes in the recent bypoll in Neyattinakara in Trivandrum (this was much before NaMo was made PM candidate). With NaMo's anointment, the BJP might well win in one of the three places.

Haryana - Rao Birender Singh, who is the sitting MP from Gurgaon, is defecting to the BJP. I think he has the ability to win on his own, without any alliances. If BJP goes with INLD, then they might well win about 2 seats at least, don't you think?

Let me throw my 2 paise......
West bengal will be very interesting is dada (Saurav Ganguly) accepts BJP high command's offer to join the party. If Dada stands at Kolkata South seat, and as a gesture
to the son of the soil mamata fields a weak candidate, then dada can sail through.
(Right now, BJP's ex-state president 9Sri tathagata Roy) is supposed to fight at this seat.)
Note that Kolkata South is mamata's pocket borough, and dada's home turf is this same seat. Also, Howrah is another seat where BJP has a fair chance, but Mamata needs to field a weak candidate.
Alipurduar is not certain since both Congress and Forward Block are very strong here. Rather, Raiganj and krishnagar are more favourable. In Any case, West Bengal has become extremely interesting since in all the seats we'll witness four-cornered contests. In the past election strangely CPM and BJP made some lower level informal understanding to keep TMC and INC out. In some places CPM accused that BJP wasn't campaigning hard enough to attract more anti-left votes to downsize TMC. In Howrah, CPM was accused to bribe the BJP candidate at the tune of a paltry 8 lakh rupees to help their candidate......later, in the by-election, BJP went soft on TMC by withdrawing their
candidate so help consolidate anti-left votes......
...We are living in an interesting time.

[muraliravi]

MuraliRavi-ji,
JMT. So take it as you will.

Andhra - If BJP goes with TDP, I can easily visualise them getting a couple of seats at least (this is exceptionally conservative).

Orissa - Sangeeta Kumari Singh Deo in Bolangir, Juel Oram in Sundargarh, and (if he returns) Mahameghabahan Aira Kharabela Swain in Balasore all have decent chances of winning. One of the three would click, don't you think?

WB - BJP has a decent chance in Alipur Duars, and Krishnanagar, I think (Can someone from Bengal confirm it?). Hopefully one will click.

Kerala - There is a genuine contempt for the UPA and its pro minority policies. In most of the places, it is the Left that is going to benefit from the Hindu anger, but in Trivandrum, Palakkad, and Kasargod, it could be the BJP that might benefit. As a case in point, BJP won some 30K votes in the recent bypoll in Neyattinakara in Trivandrum (this was much before NaMo was made PM candidate). With NaMo's anointment, the BJP might well win in one of the three places.

Haryana - Rao Birender Singh, who is the sitting MP from Gurgaon, is defecting to the BJP. I think he has the ability to win on his own, without any alliances. If BJP goes with INLD, then they might well win about 2 seats at least, don't you think?

Nagesh ji,

I agree that there is some chance in many of the seats you have mentioned, but I am still skeptical as to how many will convert to seats. For example in Andhra, when the state is so angry with BJP's stand on Telangana, which seats do you see them getting

My problem with WB, Orissa and Kerala is always that BJP is within reaching distance on some seats, but never crosses the line. Now while based on probability theory we can assign some seats to them, when we do seat predictions we better be conservative and only assign sure seats. So from that criteria, I doubt they will pull off anything in these places.

Haryana, I agree with you, there is a decent chance of pulling off some seats. But lets also keep in mind that the latest congress B team namely AAP has been assigned its latest project: Sabotage BJP's chances in Haryana and Mumbai.

[Shanmukh]

Nagesh ji,

I agree that there is some chance in many of the seats you have mentioned, but I am still skeptical as to how many will convert to seats. For example in Andhra, when the state is so angry with BJP's stand on Telangana, which seats do you see them getting

Andhra - it depends on how things turn out. If Telangana does not get formed because the Congress does not get the Bill in Parliament, then the BJP stands a superb chance of winning quite a few seats in SeemaAndhra. There are plenty of sitting Andhra MPs in the Congress who are already looking to jump to the BJP, since they need a protector at the centre (and the TDP cannot be that protector, because its influence at the centre is limited). Lagadapati Rajagopal, Rayapati Sambashiva Rao, and (if rumours be true) Pallam Raju, and even Subbarami Reddy are all looking to jump to the BJP. Apart from this, the Congress would be utterly crushed, and even in Telangana, the BJP-TDP alliance would stand to gain hugely. The pitch would be Telangana state for one, and equal justice for SeemaAndhra. This is the best case for the BJP TDP in Andhra, and in this case, we can envision a very strong performance by the BJP-TDP alliance.

If the Bill is brought into the Parliament, then the BJP, I think, has decided to bite the bullet and go against the division at the last moment, since it is unlikely to have been approved by the Andhra Assembly. In this case, the BJP will be wiped out in Telangana, but the path to walk would be that they are the saviours of SeemaAndhra interests. Again, in alliance with TDP, the BJP stands to gain several seats in SeemaAndhra.

My problem with WB, Orissa and Kerala is always that BJP is within reaching distance on some seats, but never crosses the line. Now while based on probability theory we can assign some seats to them, when we do seat predictions we better be conservative and only assign sure seats. So from that criteria, I doubt they will pull off anything in these places.

I cannot answer for WB or Orissa, since I do not speak the languages, but for Kerala, here is an interesting article.

http://www.deccanchronicle.com/131215/n ... -programme

The man in question is the chief of the Kerala Congress (M) (practically a Christian party), and a hardcore Christian. You can see that he has no real sympathies for the Hindutva agenda of the BJP. Yet he is holding talks with the BJP. The Modi wave is quite strong in Kerala, and P C George, who has his ears to the ground, wishes to profit from it. The BJP today is much stronger than it ever was, and on balance, the chances of the BJP winning a seat from the state, are quite high.

Haryana, I agree with you, there is a decent chance of pulling off some seats. But lets also keep in mind that the latest congress B team namely AAP has been assigned its latest project: Sabotage BJP's chances in Haryana and Mumbai.

I doubt that Arvind Kejriwal will be able to pull in educated voters in a Lok Sabha poll. Most people know that he has no chance of doing anything in Lok Sabha, and he will be pitted directly against Modi.

But - still I agree with you that it is better to be more conservative in our estimates and believe in Murphy's law.

[subhamoy.das]

maraliravi, why this penchant for playing down the upcoming victory of BJP. I remember u were quite pessimist about the 4 states also and constantly harping on all states BJP had a tough fight cut out. Are u a con-gress sympathiser and that is ok too!

[devesh]

nageshks ji,

whatever path BJP decides to take in AP (existing form), I hope they are mindful of their past history in dealing with Kosta politicians. if they don't develop a base that's independent of the elites, they will become the used cond**. again. just as they were used and thrown away by TDP once before, it will happen again, if BJP is not careful. they've gotta be smart this time. which means, no blanket assurances of seat-sharing. in fact, BJP really wants to prove its point, they should run in 2014 without any alliance and see how TDP likes it. that option should always be dangled in front of TDP if TDP insists on acting as if it's an unconquerable force in AP. they once had a lot of leverage. they no longer do. but in case CBN decides to wag his tail again, BJP should not hesitate to prominent display the stick. the carrot is good. but with likes of CBN (political opportunist of the first order), the stick should also come out to play every once in a while.

that is a game Congress has perfected. BJP should pluck a few pages from INC playbook. BJP absolutely needs to develop a base that is independent of existing set of elites who simply want to jump the drowning INC ship. because they will jump BJP just as easily if somebody else offers them a better deal.

[Shanmukh]

maraliravi, why this penchant for playing down the upcoming victory of BJP. I remember u were quite pessimist about the 4 states also and constantly harping on all states BJP had a tough fight cut out. Are u a con-gress sympathiser and that is ok too!

He is not a Congress sympathiser - quite far from it, really. He prefers to be conservative in his estimates about the BJP, and after the bitter experiences in the last couple of elections, I cannot blame him. It is better not to get hopes too high.

[Shanmukh]

nageshks ji,

whatever path BJP decides to take in AP (existing form), I hope they are mindful of their past history in dealing with Kosta politicians. if they don't develop a base that's independent of the elites, they will become the used cond**. again. just as they were used and thrown away by TDP once before, it will happen again, if BJP is not careful. they've gotta be smart this time. which means, no blanket assurances of seat-sharing. in fact, BJP really wants to prove its point, they should run in 2014 without any alliance and see how TDP likes it. that option should always be dangled in front of TDP if TDP insists on acting as if it's an unconquerable force in AP. they once had a lot of leverage. they no longer do. but in case CBN decides to wag his tail again, BJP should not hesitate to prominent display the stick. the carrot is good. but with likes of CBN (political opportunist of the first order), the stick should also come out to play every once in a while.

that is a game Congress has perfected. BJP should pluck a few pages from INC playbook. BJP absolutely needs to develop a base that is independent of existing set of elites who simply want to jump the drowning INC ship. because they will jump BJP just as easily if somebody else offers them a better deal.

Devesh-ji,
I have a lot of sympathy for Telangana state demands, really. I can even understand their decision to want a better deal. The only thing I am truly opposed to is in Telangana is KCR (sorry if I hurt your feelings, but the man's vandalism and his hatred for the `other' really offends me). And all this talk of throwing out SeemaAndhra folks from Telangana frightens me. No one in his right mind could contemplate that, and heck! we have not done it to Bangladeshi infiltrators. A question for you, if you don't mind. Even BJP has, for the last 10 years, been supportive of Telangana statehood. Yet, they all chose to go with the more militant KCR, and not the BJP. Why is that?

I quite agree with you about the existing Kosta elites. They stayed with the Congress only because there was no other national party in Andhra offering them a better deal. But they need a national party, and the BJP is the only one available. But yes - in an election or two, if a new national alternative emerges in AP, they are quite likely to jump ship. But for the next 5-10 years, they will remain with the BJP. Time enough to develop an independent base.

As for the BJP, well - let us see what they do. I am not sure that the Congress will even bring the Telangana Bill to the Parliament. Let us see what happens then.

[Hari Seldon]

What happened to the CVB, lokpal and the T-bills - pretty tight parlmt winter session, seems like?

[RajeshA]

Rahul Mehta : why BJP leaders didnt demand release of religion\language data of census-2011 till date.

Hints :

1. Who benefits if data had come in jan-2012

2. Who benefits if data had come in jan-2014?

3. Who benefits if data had come in jun-2014?

4. Who has power to force BJP MPs to remain silent?

RajeshA: It's one thing to have the data, it's another thing to have a plan what to do with it! Such data cuts both ways. If the Hindus are shown to have shrunk to say 70%, then there is going to be a huge uproar and the whole narrative would change to the conversion race and demographic explosion! Would BJP want to run in Lok Sabha elections with conversion being the sole focus? They would not be able to avoid that once the data comes out. It is going to be very divisive. So would that be better suited to run an election campaign on? Hardly. The claim of Hindus that India belongs to them and they have the right to determine the course of India's destiny is often based on the fact that still 80% of Indians are Hindus. Does Hindutva want to jeopardize that? Hardly. If a huge increase in conversion is shown, again organizations like VHP would have to answer for it, why have they allowed such proselytization. Why are they sitting on their lazy butts? Would they want to answer that? Hardly.

There is only one plan. Get power and then try to change the situation from inside, try to win back lost territory from that vantage point, and try to do that without causing whole of India to explode.

Well, IMO, nation would have been better off if nation had known about the rising % of Bangladeshis, rising % of Muslims due to birth rate and conversions in Hindus. Napolean told me that bad news should be brought in speediest possible way , good news may wait. Earlier we know, earlier will activists will realize that Congress\BJP\AAP leaders are NOT interested in dealing with these 3 and many more difficult problems . We could have had this data in jan-2012, and now we may get it in jan-2014, assuming MNC-owners agree to help NaMo. The activists would have left IAC\Lokpal\Anna nonsense if the falling % numbers had come in jan-2012. And AAP would not have come into existence. If BJP leaders dont have plan to deal with this problem, then all the more reason nationalists should dump them and look for alternatives.

- Did Napolean say bad news should be brought in the speediest possible way and good news may wait when he was in power or when he was out of power?

- Who said BJP (especially under Modi) doesn't have a plan to deal with situation? All I said is that one can deal with the situation better if one is in power! Otherwise one can do only Rona-Dhona!

- The activists that IAC/Lokpal had were anyway not the kind who would have left that and jumped onto "Hindu in danger" bandwagon!

Use of census argument does not help you make a case that BJP or Modi is a sell-out!

[devesh]

^^^
unless INC can pass T-bill without BJP support, it's pretty much dead. so not sure what is going to happen on that front.

Anna is fasting for Lokpal again. where it leads, nobody can say. he's not getting the media glare he received in 2011.

CVB might get shelved if INC thinks it might give more impetus to Modi. and there might be a lot of regional parties not willing to vote for it.

so looks like the session will mostly be a dead, unless something happens on Lokpal front. of if INC decides to push ahead with CVB come what may.

[RajeshA]

BJP absolutely needs to develop a base that is independent of existing set of elites who simply want to jump the drowning INC ship. because they will jump BJP just as easily if somebody else offers them a better deal.

Fully agree with this. AP should be a long term investment.

[Shanmukh]

- Did Napolean say bad news should be brought in the speediest possible way and good news may wait when he was in power or when he was out of power?

- Who said BJP (especially under Modi) doesn't have a plan to deal with situation? All I said is that one can deal with the situation better if one is in power! Otherwise one can do only Rona-Dhona!

- The activists that IAC/Lokpal had were anyway not the kind who would have left that and jumped onto "Hindu in danger" bandwagon!

Use of census argument does not help you make a case that BJP or Modi is a sell-out!

RajeshA-ji,
You are banging your head against a brick wall. The best way of defining certain people on the board is with this image.

http://www.politicsforum.org/images/fla ... ame_77.php

[Rahul M]

MuraliRavi-ji,
JMT. So take it as you will.

Andhra - If BJP goes with TDP, I can easily visualise them getting a couple of seats at least (this is exceptionally conservative).

Orissa - Sangeeta Kumari Singh Deo in Bolangir, Juel Oram in Sundargarh, and (if he returns) Mahameghabahan Aira Kharabela Swain in Balasore all have decent chances of winning. One of the three would click, don't you think?

WB - BJP has a decent chance in Alipur Duars, and Krishnanagar, I think (Can someone from Bengal confirm it?). Hopefully one will click.

Kerala - There is a genuine contempt for the UPA and its pro minority policies. In most of the places, it is the Left that is going to benefit from the Hindu anger, but in Trivandrum, Palakkad, and Kasargod, it could be the BJP that might benefit. As a case in point, BJP won some 30K votes in the recent bypoll in Neyattinakara in Trivandrum (this was much before NaMo was made PM candidate). With NaMo's anointment, the BJP might well win in one of the three places.

Haryana - Rao Birender Singh, who is the sitting MP from Gurgaon, is defecting to the BJP. I think he has the ability to win on his own, without any alliances. If BJP goes with INLD, then they might well win about 2 seats at least, don't you think?

Let me throw my 2 paise......
West bengal will be very interesting is dada (Saurav Ganguly) accepts BJP high command's offer to join the party. If Dada stands at Kolkata South seat, and as a gesture
to the son of the soil mamata fields a weak candidate, then dada can sail through.
(Right now, BJP's ex-state president 9Sri tathagata Roy) is supposed to fight at this seat.)
Note that Kolkata South is mamata's pocket borough, and dada's home turf is this same seat. Also, Howrah is another seat where BJP has a fair chance, but Mamata needs to field a weak candidate.
Alipurduar is not certain since both Congress and Forward Block are very strong here. Rather, Raiganj and krishnagar are more favourable. In Any case, West Bengal has become extremely interesting since in all the seats we'll witness four-cornered contests. In the past election strangely CPM and BJP made some lower level informal understanding to keep TMC and INC out. In some places CPM accused that BJP wasn't campaigning hard enough to attract more anti-left votes to downsize TMC. In Howrah, CPM was accused to bribe the BJP candidate at the tune of a paltry 8 lakh rupees to help their candidate......later, in the by-election, BJP went soft on TMC by withdrawing their
candidate so help consolidate anti-left votes......
...We are living in an interesting time.

here's my WB analysis earlier in the thread.
http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 6#p1557736

for bjp in WB :

seats with decent chance : howrah, krishnanagar, alipurduar, darjeeling

seats with outside chance : jalpaiguri, bardhaman-durgapur

bara bazar is too small an area in kolkata-uttar to have any major effect. dum dum happened due to tapan sikdar's personal understanding with cpim leader subhas chakraborti. once the later died sikdar's vote plummeted. problem with darjeeling is that the political landscape has completely changed in recent days.
interestingly, bjp was a (distant) 3rd in almost every LS seat in 2009 polling 5-10% of the vote.

south bengal esp. rural bengal is extremely hard to crack for any party atm, TMC is just too well entrenched.

[muraliravi]

maraliravi, why this penchant for playing down the upcoming victory of BJP. I remember u were quite pessimist about the 4 states also and constantly harping on all states BJP had a tough fight cut out. Are u a con-gress sympathiser and that is ok too!

Sir, Calling me a congress sympathiser is like calling Shivaji Maharaj a Mughal agent. Anyway the only reason I am being pessimistic is because I have had my hands burnt in 2004 and 2009 when I was expecting BJP to do a lot better and in the end, I was left a sad guy.

[merlin]

maraliravi, why this penchant for playing down the upcoming victory of BJP. I remember u were quite pessimist about the 4 states also and constantly harping on all states BJP had a tough fight cut out. Are u a con-gress sympathiser and that is ok too!

Sir, Calling me a congress sympathiser is like calling Shivaji Maharaj a Mughal agent. Anyway the only reason I am being pessimistic is because I have had my hands burnt in 2004 and 2009 when I was expecting BJP to do a lot better and in the end, I was left a sad guy.

Better to be a realist than a optimist and get disappointed if a 2009 redux happens. Remember that in the past 10 years the BJP has degenerated everywhere thanks to D4's disinclination to building up the BJP anywhere. Only the CMs did that (Gujarat, MP, Chattisgarh, Rajasthan, Goa, Karnataka). Golden opportunities to build the BJP as a serious player in Orissa, TN, AP, UP and Assam were never pursued.

[muraliravi]

maraliravi, why this penchant for playing down the upcoming victory of BJP. I remember u were quite pessimist about the 4 states also and constantly harping on all states BJP had a tough fight cut out. Are u a con-gress sympathiser and that is ok too!

He is not a Congress sympathiser - quite far from it, really. He prefers to be conservative in his estimates about the BJP, and after the bitter experiences in the last couple of elections, I cannot blame him. It is better not to get hopes too high.

Thank you Nagesh sir, once bitten twice shy. One more issue is, BJP is an expert in pulling loss from the jaws of victory. Karnataka should have been 25-3 in favor of BJP for LS 2014 and look at the mess they have made.

[JohnTitor]

Added later: the last column has some details. It seems that on 24th July, AK threatened Avinash Singh on his mobile phone and asked him to leave Delhi or else he might be seriously harmed. A second, similar threat was made 2 days later, via mobile phone. Mahendra Park police station was informed of this the same day.

Thanks for translating. Interesting to see that this had little effect on AAP, unless the migrant population is concentrated in a few seats.

[krishnan]

16:02 LIVE! AAP asks for public referendum on forming govt in Delhi : Kejriwal slams the BJP for its silence on the letter written by AAP. He says the BJP did not even bother to respond to the letter. "In a democracy, that is a bare minimum that can be expected from a party," he says.

Kejriwal says he will call for a referendum from the public on whether the party should form government. AAP says it will ask for public opinion till Sunday. He said he wants to tell Delhi's voters that the party is not running away from responsibility.

Kejriwal reads out a letter that will be distributed across Delhi asking for the citizens' mandate. Twenty-five lakh copies of the letter have been made and will be distributed. That's way too many trees, Mr Kejriwal.

Responses to whether AAP should form govt can be sent by SMS, phone calls or emails.

[Muppalla]

Andhra - If BJP goes with TDP, I can easily visualise them getting a couple of seats at least (this is exceptionally conservative).

From the numbers in the survey for AP, it shows 2 to BJP, 18 to TDP, 8 to YSRC and 10 to TRS and 3 to INC and 1 to MIM. This tells that TDP is on a revival path and YSRC is blunted. That 10 TRS, 3 INC, 1 MIM and 2 BJP is all from Telangana and 1 more seat is either going to TDP or YSRC. If TDP and BJP go in a coalition this is very much true. TRS+INC in T is 13 which is the sweep that they can get either the state is divided or not divided. The most important thing here is 17 TDP and 8 YSRC makes 25 and all from non-T region.

Added later:

Based on the survey comments and description, Modi factor is there in AP and that is going to work as a catalyst for TDP if they go for a pre-poll alliance. I think both parties have done extensive surveys to get to a point where the central BJP command is overriding the state unit on the decision.

[pankajs]

Rajya sabha passes the amended Lokpal bill. Action will move to Lok Sabha tomorrow.

[archan]

16:02 LIVE! AAP asks for public referendum on forming govt in Delhi : Kejriwal slams the BJP for its silence on the letter written by AAP. He says the BJP did not even bother to respond to the letter. "In a democracy, that is a bare minimum that can be expected from a party," he says.

Kejriwal says he will call for a referendum from the public on whether the party should form government. AAP says it will ask for public opinion till Sunday. He said he wants to tell Delhi's voters that the party is not running away from responsibility.

Kejriwal reads out a letter that will be distributed across Delhi asking for the citizens' mandate. Twenty-five lakh copies of the letter have been made and will be distributed. That's way too many trees, Mr Kejriwal.

Responses to whether AAP should form govt can be sent by SMS, phone calls or emails.

I get the feeling that the public might be beginning to get wary.