India-US Strategic News and Discussion

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 31 Dec 2013 08:30

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 156393.cms

US to ao ahead with criminal charges, no question of apology.

so I guess the diplomats are going to have to pay more for their 6 drinks/day scam.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 31 Dec 2013 08:33

MUTUs apart, most people are missing a very simple thing. Why has the US gone this far with a friendly country when the matter does not demand such an atrocious behaviour leading even to a setback in diplomatic relationship and remain standing steadfast on what is clearly a wrong move in the first place ?

ramana, even the question of Afghanistan and a need to re-assure TSP do not need the US to go this far to put at stake its valuable relationship with India which has been built up painstakingly in the last two decades and which still remains at a 'nascent & fragile' state.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 31 Dec 2013 08:39

SS, Sorry to say this but maybe it was one sided all along and India never acknowledged the signs of disarray once Ombaba took over.
By kowtowing too low MMS's India never saw the sneers on the visage.

I was going thru the KS tribute thread to glean some wisdom on the current situation.

I was struck that even KS went by the big picture moves of US need to engage India against China which BK repeats even today.

What if all this is fake as Acharya keeps saying?

What if vinsha kale vipariti buddhi is takinng over US elites.

There is no Monyihan like in the 1990s to tell them to cool it when Robin Raphael went on a rampage confident of Billary connections to avenge her pet peeves.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 31 Dec 2013 08:55

ramana wrote:By kowtowing too low MMS's India never saw the sneers on the visage.

Brilliant.

I was going thru the KS tribute thread to glean some wisdom on the current situation.

I was struck that even KS went by the big picture moves of US need to engage India against China which BK repeats even today.

What if all this is fake as Acharya keeps saying?

What if vinsha kale vipariti buddhi is takinng over US elites.

There is no Monyihan like in the 1990s to tell them to cool it when Robin Raphael went on a rampage confident of Billary connections to avenge her pet peeves.

The KS depiction of the big picture remains valid, IMHO. We know that many a time the US acts in a very myopic way secure in its thought that it can always buy back frayed relationships. Its behaviour always fascinated me because it looked exactly like Pakistan's so-called tactical brilliance. I assume that the present is also one such though I am mystified as to what is the real cause because nothing is apparent to us SDREs. I agree there is no Moynihan or a Galbraith.

Hitesh · Post by **Hitesh** » 31 Dec 2013 08:58

I must say my piece.

I am sick of the sweeping generalizations made by some of the posters that were bordering on racist tones. I am a PIO. I was born in India and immigrated to America at an early age of 2 and half. I became an American citizen when I was in my early twenties only after 9/11 when the new laws made it impossible for me to keep my green card status because I do a lot of traveling and I have made my life in America. But nevertheless, I never lost my love or my bond for India and I, including my family have contributed to the building of a prosperous society in India in many ways.

When this episode happened, I was immediately angered and wrote posts denouncing the acts of US and defended GoI's point of view and wrong a strongly worded letter to my congressman.

So what does G. Sagar and the likes of him have to say about me? Are they going to call me a traitor and accuse me of disloyalty and not being Indian? It speaks volumes of the small mindness of Sagar and others like him.

Many NRIs and PIOs have positively contributed to the success of India by bringing the knowledge base and wealth to India and they deserve some recognition. We don't ask for people to bow to us and worship. All we ask for is recognition that we are doing something positive and have something to contribute and treat us like we are part of Greater India, not somebody to be scorned and excluded from.

So I ask the moderators to stop the personal and unjustified attacks against many NRIs and PIOs because those attacks are unwarranted and unsubstantiated and only serve to weaken the unity of India.

Jai hind.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 31 Dec 2013 09:05

Hitesh, as you can see, such generalizations are not even widespread and I believe strongly they are untrue. Please continue with your efforts which are appreciated.

Bade · Post by **Bade** » 31 Dec 2013 09:14

I am quite surprised to see the US digging its heels in further without making any amends. This is now even beyond a simple message being sent to India by slapping a few diplomats hard. The state department is definitely not entirely on board for a broader relationship with India, whereas the DOD is perhaps salivating at possible deals coming their way. There is nothing much for India to get from the US beyond the military wares, Indo-US business deals outside of the govt will continue as usual depending on wage differentials.

vasu raya · Post by **vasu raya** » 31 Dec 2013 09:39

when they caught the US ship in Indian waters, the parent company said they were hiding from the cyclone on the east coast, that excuse didn't fly as the ship was caught on the southwest coast, then the captain tried to commit suicide twice while in custody, maybe he doesn't want to reveal the modus operandi

The Indian police has the track record of letting go the most wanted because the arrested could create false alibis

KJo · Post by **KJo** » 31 Dec 2013 10:02

ramana wrote:
it never was a honeymoon for that implies a marriage. It was a one sided delusion by a starry elite, which has now become grounded in reality of Legalized cavity searches of female diplomats.

I hate the feminization of India that is Bharat.
Nehruji started that humbug model.

We lack self confidence and always hanker for validation from the goras. When will we get rid of this inferiority complex?

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 31 Dec 2013 10:15

vasu raya wrote: . . . the parent company said they were hiding from the cyclone on the east coast . . .

And then they said they came to collect diesel and rations. It is clear that there is something deeply suspicious about this. But, still, is this the reason for the huge US anger to put India in its place even to the brink of totally spoiled relationship ?

Bade · Post by **Bade** » 31 Dec 2013 10:27

There are perhaps more reasons than that.

The nuke deal, has not given US anything in return. That must irk them a lot I am sure.

Opening of markets etc etc.

amit · Post by **amit** » 31 Dec 2013 10:41

Sridhar that's (meaning motive) is the 800 pound gorilla in the room nobody is looking at. Timing is everything. Note that the shit hit the ceiling just after the Foreign Secretary was in town for important dialogue. Important enough for Kerry to meet her. A case of pique due to unfulfilled expectations? This theory would also explain the Indian fury and the strip and cavity search humiliation. Note Prabhu Dayal was not subjected to this indignity.

I don't buy the view that DK's treatment was due to over zealous local officials. It was meant to send a message. Where things may have gone wrong is the fact that SD did not game in the fact that this is election season in India and MMS' shaky hands are tied.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 31 Dec 2013 10:48

Bade wrote:The nuke deal, has not given US anything in return. That must irk them a lot I am sure.

But, a part of the non-return on nuke deal is Japan.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 31 Dec 2013 10:50

amit wrote:Where things may have gone wrong is the fact that SD did not game in the fact that this is election season in India and MMS' shaky hands are tied.

And also the fact that they did strip & cavity search on an Indian lady. This certainly aggravated the issue. The Americans refuse to see this and as usual are arrogant.

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 31 Dec 2013 10:52

SSridhar wrote:But, still, is this the reason for the huge US anger to put India in its place even to the brink of totally spoiled relationship ?

Assuming this to be a rhetorical question, let me put in my thoughts. Something is afoot - probably a combination of BD and India going to the hustings at about the same time. US almost surely wants Awami League to loose in BD. Coming to India, probably there are two camps - one rooting for NM and the other for status quo ante. Dr. DK is the unfortunate football, wrong person at the wrong place at a wrong time.

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 31 Dec 2013 10:56

amit wrote:Where things may have gone wrong is the fact that SD did not game in the fact that this is election season in India and MMS' shaky hands are tied.

If you ask me SD is not that incompetent. They are somewhat incompetent but not by this wide a margin.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 31 Dec 2013 11:02

Chicago rule to kick the already down MMS and his team. EJs will be under the AESA scanner after E2014, and it will get tough only for first Modi Term. MMS lost, Xong Swan Song not so long and Modi already looking elsewhere then only MUTU and Tommy Boys left to fiddle with. Presteroika due now At FB , Past 2022, it will be too late to mate.

Bade · Post by **Bade** » 31 Dec 2013 11:05

Another way to look at this episode is, that the US could not find any levers to pull to achieve its immediate goals within the recent dialogues with India, hence they went for the diplomat. But that shows US even more poorly with no real leverage with respect to India, contrary to what many believe here.

This also assumes that they were very well aware of the sensitivity of such an arrest would mean, but went ahead because they had no other means to send a message. More like a last ditch effort...almost admitting to lack of any other diplomatic channels to make their demands known to us.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 31 Dec 2013 11:06

Bade wrote:There are perhaps more reasons than that.

The nuke deal, has not given US anything in return. That must irk them a lot I am sure.

Opening of markets etc etc.

Bade ji, billions in arms deals!!

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 31 Dec 2013 11:11

amit wrote:Sridhar that's (meaning motive) is the 800 pound gorilla in the room nobody is looking at. Timing is everything. Note that the shit hit the ceiling just after the Foreign Secretary was in town for important dialogue. Important enough for Kerry to meet her. A case of pique due to unfulfilled expectations? This theory would also explain the Indian fury and the strip and cavity search humiliation. Note Prabhu Dayal was not subjected to this indignity.

I don't buy the view that DK's treatment was due to over zealous local officials. It was meant to send a message. Where things may have gone wrong is the fact that SD did not game in the fact that this is election season in India and MMS' shaky hands are tied.

Very true, amit ji,

The SD has foolishly converted a routine, recurring and usual run of the mill Indian embassy hired help minor contretemps to spiral out of control and take the proportions of a black swan event.

It's definitely a message that was not gamed right, may be due to SD over confidence, preoccupation and the year end vacation syndrome and also blind reliance on India's well known coolie mentality towards the goras.

Their man MMS, has failed spectacularly in being unable to control his own NSA and foreign secy and the election season fear ( and the very real consequent fatal consequences for the congis ) of Modi/BJP, has allowed papa khobragade with his well worn BC credentials to foolishly rampage and orchestrate a fallacious media campaign to highlight naked personal political ambitions.

Many more cavities need to be searched in the Indian media, babudom and shinde class of politicos.

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 31 Dec 2013 11:14

>>Where things may have gone wrong is the fact that SD did not game in the fact that this is election season in India and MMS' shaky hands are tied.

If the theory you have put forth is right, they must have gamed it. Else what's the point of the exercise?

Bade · Post by **Bade** » 31 Dec 2013 11:16

Karan_M, It is not always about money, though it wants more of such deals I am sure.

Heard at a party a while ago, that it is not just truck drivers there is a shortage of but also nuclear engineers (young ones) in the US. Best to train and recruit many from India like the IT-Vity model. But for that India has to let US in.

added: some supporting data to what I heard.

Nuclear utilities in the U.S. will need to hire nearly 25,000 people to replace the 39 percent of its workforce that will be eligible for retirement by 2016, says Carol L. Berrigan, senior director for industry infrastructure for the Nuclear Energy Institute, a Washington-based trade group. Meanwhile, U.S. universities awarded a total of 715 graduate and undergraduate degrees in nuclear engineering in 2009, the most recent year for which data is available.

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/a- ... 72011.html

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 31 Dec 2013 11:39

Bade: if US loosens H1B and adds nuc eng to the list after nursing and itvity folks they would have no shortage. Our people would rise up meet the challenge head on.

Bade · Post by **Bade** » 31 Dec 2013 11:49

I bet the nuclear industry does not pay as well as IT-Vity even in the US, so H1-B/F-1 will be just a conduit for later to jump ship. Much easier to train folks in India (on US reactors) and ensure no jumping ship to another field later, like what Sangeeta Richards did

after landing in the US.

Altair · Post by **Altair** » 31 Dec 2013 11:50

US will be prosecuting DK.
What would it take for India to recall its ambassador to US and recall all its non essential staff in US to come back?
How would that play?
There is speculation that MMS will be resigning on Jan 3.Pls check print media.The Telegraph. Clearly we are missing the big picture here.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 31 Dec 2013 12:01

matrimc wrote:Unfortunately Republicans are in such a disarray that even with President Obama's 41% apporval rating, it is still a question mark whether they can take control of the senate and/or they can counter Ms. Clinton who is sure to run for 2016 presidency. If Ms. Clinton becomes the (first woman) president, IMHO dem policy would still continue on the current path.

Senate of course is the most powerful body in GOTUS.

Yes, the Republicans are in disarray, but we also continuously make the mistake of viewing GOTUS as a singular entity. They're not. Take for example the just quoted reference to a quid pro quo for the nuke deal. That was a reflection of the priorities of the GWB rule, and not that of the current BHO regime.

While we're aware that the administrations have very different priorities, when matters like this come up, there's a tendency to view the other side as a united entity, and our side as being in disarray, speaking in many voices. This is unnecessary. It makes us seem less united than we are, and them more so than they are. We say 'MMS will not say anything. What does Modi have to say ? Why does he say nothing ? What does Kejriwal have to say ? He's a US stooge - he'll say nothing!' etc.

It's worth doing the same for the US. I pointed out the antecedents of the organization Lisa Curtis wrote on the behalf of, and how that's a valuable avenue to influence US opinion. So what if the Republicans are in disarray ? Here's an opportunity to appeal to them to make their political opponents look overzealous and irresponsible for damaging a relationship the previous administration spent enormous political capital on - change to US law, forcing through an NSG waiver and all. It's not helpful to treat them as 'the Americans' but view them more critically and separate out the various political forces on their end and use that knowledge to our benefit.

It would help dig up the political imperatives of various parties along the US chain of command and participate in the process of communicating with their foundations, forums, or even the respective local representatives to let them know how you feel. This isn't a case of divided loyalties; Jews have no conflict about this, and have organizations like AIPAC to support them. Wanting good ties between the US and India, whether it's your current or erstwhile motherland, is not a sign of conflicting loyalty.

g.sarkar · Post by **g.sarkar** » 31 Dec 2013 12:13

chetak wrote: Many more cavities need to be searched in the Indian media, babudom and shinde class of politicos.

Yes, but who will authorize this. Certainly not MMS or Rajmata, nor Shahzada. This leaves just NM, who may or may not come to power.
No a more serious note, can the LCA survive without the US jet engines? What hurdles the Indian defence forces will face if the tit for tat actions degenerate into an embargo against India? What are the options?
Gautam

g.sarkar · Post by **g.sarkar** » 31 Dec 2013 12:23

http://www.rediff.com/news/report/will- ... 131231.htm
Rediff.com » News » Will India agree to a plea deal for Devyani?
Will India agree to a plea deal for Devyani?
December 31, 2013 12:33 IST
"There is no chance of the case against Devyani Khobaragade being dropped, but a plea deal is possible, which could avoid a jail term for the Indian diplomat, sources in the US government tell Rediff.com's George Joseph in New York.
Fresh developments have surfaced in Indian diplomat Devyani Khobragade's case, which makes clear the roles played by different agencies and also how nationalistic sentiments in India have created a situation that will not quickly end the controversy.Chances of the prosecutors dropping the case or the United States government apologising to India are remote. Various American agencies insist that Dr Khobragade enjoyed no diplomatic immunity when she was charged for alleged visa fraud and arrested in New York on December 12.Contrary to public belief, it was not US Attorney for the Southern District of New York Preet Bharara's office which initiated the case against Dr Khobragade.It was the US State Department which initiated the case, investigated it and later had Dr Khobragade arrested on the charge of making false declarations in a visa application for her maid, Sangeeta Richard......."
Now, a plea means that Dr. K will have to plead guilty, and avoid a jury trial and agree to a punishment that would be agreed by the judge and lawyers of the two side. A felony conviction will still have an effect on her obtaining a green card in future.
Gautam

prashanth · Post by **prashanth** » 31 Dec 2013 12:34

US to proceed with prosecution of Khobragade

Not supporting/opposing any country, but I found one interesting comment.

I am following this case for a while now and this reminds me of the "Raymond Davis" Saga that happened in Pakistan where USA refused to
tender an apology for killing 2 pakistanis who were walking on the roadside. At that time, almost all the Indians stood by USA in all the
social media and newspaper commentary sections just because of the enemity towards pakistan. Now we are pretty much in the same situation
and looks like our neighbours are of the same mood. This is the difference between South Asia and "Latin America". Americans wouldn't
dare to support Britain in Falklands issue or do something similar to any latin amercian diplomat because latin american countries have
strong ties between each other and they stand together. - John

svenkat · Post by **svenkat** » 31 Dec 2013 12:37

Reps and Dems are not very different in their approach to India.Dems are BHliberals.Reps being conservative are a little bit more understanding,but not by much,given their christian exceptionalism.

India does not have to do anything.Its upto the buffoons under Kerrorist to solve the problem.Anyway,the US has displayed all its cards,thankfully for India.The expectations from Indian side will be minimal.

Its good that this happened during Congress regime.BJP has all the time in the world to be prepared when its time comes.It can have no excuses now.

amit · Post by **amit** » 31 Dec 2013 12:44

JE Menon wrote:>>Where things may have gone wrong is the fact that SD did not game in the fact that this is election season in India and MMS' shaky hands are tied.

If the theory you have put forth is right, they must have gamed it. Else what's the point of the exercise?

JEM,

It's almost certain that they gamed it. Look at the time line. SR went missing in June. There was an extortion attempt by a freelance lawyer hired by SR. The Indian govt reacted and then revoked her passport and initiated a court case in India and then informed SD. What started out as an attempt by SR to game the system for a green card suddenly becomes an important case for SD are they some sort of NGO fighting human trafficking? It would be interesting to know if the case against Prabhu Dayal was also taken up by the SD or was it a private NGO led effort?

I think the SR case was looked at as a convenient chess piece that had landed on their board by folks at the SD. But before using it they didn't look at all the consequences. Particularly as Sridhar points out DK being a woman and the fact that it's election time in India and the UPA already has three sobriquet of being weak in foreign policy.

svenkat · Post by **svenkat** » 31 Dec 2013 12:49

amit wrote: Where things may have gone wrong is the fact that SD did not game in the fact that this is election season in India and MMS' shaky hands are tied.

Whether the above statement has any basis will be known shortly.Let us wait and watch.

amit · Post by **amit** » 31 Dec 2013 12:53

svenkat wrote:
amit wrote: Where things may have gone wrong is the fact that SD did not game in the fact that this is election season in India and MMS' shaky hands are tied.
Whether the above statement has any basis will be known shortly.Let us wait and watch.

I think the Amir Khan consternation, as evident from official statements and various planted Op-ed pieces in the media shows that the Indian reaction was unexpected.

TKiran · Post by **TKiran** » 31 Dec 2013 13:00

Is it going to be like, on 13th Jan, the case would be suspended till DK looses immunity, then she would be brought back to india by GOI, never to let DK go back to massa, that would be very humiliating for us.

amit · Post by **amit** » 31 Dec 2013 13:05

I think it's worth noting that (as far as I know) in the other maid cases family members were not spirited out in such a clandestine manner. Are we to assume that SD has suddenly become very compassionate? Of course it could also be that the husband was a low level spy and they were worried that the matter might get out. A embassy driver has a lot of access

amit · Post by **amit** » 31 Dec 2013 13:08

TKiran wrote:Is it going to be like, on 13th Jan, the case would be suspended till DK looses immunity, then she would be brought back to india by GOI, never to let DK go back to massa, that would be very humiliating for us.

That could be so but Massa would lose a lot of leverage. I wonder why they think it worth the effort. There is something in this case that we are missing IMO.

svenkat · Post by **svenkat** » 31 Dec 2013 13:13

I dont think,the reaction had anything to do with elections.
Thats an insult to Congress nationalist leadership or what passes for it.OTOH,it could have been "Enough is Enough,No more sh1t".The Congress has been extremely accomodative of US,given its original avatar.Why cant it be hardening of Congress stance at Amirkhan cow boy attitude.Now its a political decision,whether to confront US or lie low.
By now reality must have sunken in and Raul and Antonia have to take the call.Its way beyond MMS.MMS initial reaction "Its deplorable" and measures of recopricity were within his sphere of action,nothing beyond.

My point is US misunderstood the Congress liberal nationalist leadership's (or what passes for it) actions in Indian interests as servility to amirkhan worldview.

member_28369 · Post by **member_28369** » 31 Dec 2013 13:15

amit wrote:
JEM,

It's almost certain that they gamed it. Look at the time line. SR went missing in June. There was an extortion attempt by a freelance lawyer hired by SR. The Indian govt reacted and then revoked her passport and initiated a court case in India and then informed SD..

When has an offer for out of court settlement became an extortion attempt. i read about it too and was puzzled by reaction of Indian govt characterizing it as blackmail. SR offered to drop legal proceedings for 10k ~~but not so bright~~ DK tried to file a case of blackmail and extortion.

What is the need for such characterization? You can state your opinion w/o resorting to such words. - rohitvats.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 31 Dec 2013 13:17

prashanth wrote:US to proceed with prosecution of Khobragade
I am following this case for a while now and this reminds me of the "Raymond Davis" Saga that happened in Pakistan where USA refused to
tender an apology for killing 2 pakistanis who were walking on the roadside. At that time, almost all the Indians stood by USA in all the
social media and newspaper commentary sections just because of the enemity towards pakistan. Now we are pretty much in the same situation
and looks like our neighbours are of the same mood. This is the difference between South Asia and "Latin America". Americans wouldn't
dare to support Britain in Falklands issue or do something similar to any latin amercian diplomat because latin american countries have
strong ties between each other and they stand together. - John

There is a reason for such Indian behaviour with respect to Pakistan. Pakistan is the epicentre of worldwide terrorism and is the sole source of terrorism in India. Pakistan has also been practising perfidy and double-speak ever since it was formed. There are dozens of terrorist groups within Pakistan who are used as 'non-state actors' by the state as instruments of its foreign policy. It is also clear that the state has effectively lost control over these tanzeems. So, when an incident such as the one at Lahore happened, it is natural for anyone to conclude that some terrorists were shadowing this American and fearing for his life, he shot them dead. We have seen in Pakistan dozens of high-profile murders by motorcycle-borne 'non-state actors'. Nobody wants to be kidnapped and beheaded like Daniel Pearl. Why did Raymond Davis type figures have to be in Pakistan in the first place ? Pakistan can claim itself to be a 'victim of terrorism', but that is laughable as it is self inflicted and Pakistan has no desire to get rid of terrorism. They are using this self-flagellation as victimhood. Who will have sympathy for such a God-forsaken scumbag of a country ?

BTW, the two dead at Lahore were not walking on the roadside. The poster of the comment, probably a Pakistani, knew that he could spread lies because there would be no rebuttal.

habal · Post by **habal** » 31 Dec 2013 13:18

SD may have thought that sending a message via humiliating a dalit may not have any significant collateral damage in India. Also it seems, they wanted to specifically target IFS after Sujatha Singh's visit. Economic downturn in US is also beginning to affect critical areas of their thinking faculty now. They can no longer afford to take along a whimsical elephant and pander to it's whims under obomination regime. Also Sujatha Singh declining US request (whatever it may have been) also means they have to fall back upon Plan B and assuage China & Pak that their ties with India are not as close as they thought it to be.