Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

svenkat · Post by **svenkat** » 02 Jan 2014 08:06

ramanaji,
your expectations are wrong.BJP is a pretty ordinary in many places.In Delhi,it has little traction among the elite for whom it is still the petty shopkeeper party.Its Narendrabhai who has raised the high expectations.In Delhi,it is the party of Vijay Goel,Vijay Malhotra,Sushma Swaraj and Arun Jaitley.No patch on the superbly sophisticated crooks like Kapil Sibal,earthy Ajay Maken,diehard Punjabi refugee loyalists like Jagadish Tytler.They will not allow the petty bania to rule Delhi.in their eyes(and perhaps rightly too) kejriwaal,the Haryaanvi IIT-IRS guy has far better credentials than the petty BJP bania.

Jgadish Tytler after Congress win in 2004 proclaimed "ABV and LKA are pygmies before Indira Gandhi".They will never forgive the BJP for being a junior partner to Akalis.To the Punjabi sophisticated Hindu,its unimaginable to be held hostage by semi-fascist Akalis.the Punjabi hindu has managed to survive under 800 years of muslim rule,but to face the tensions of 1980s Punjab was betrayal.After all,are similar feelings not expressed by andhra people in Hyderabad in far more favourable circumstances?

subhamoy.das · Post by **subhamoy.das** » 02 Jan 2014 08:29

I would say that letting PAAP form the govt was a master stroke to force them to reveal their true agenda. There agenda was not to fight corruption but to engage in subsidy based vote bank politics. After all the dots are falling in line. PAAP has hijacked the cong(I) agenda of amm admi to the extreme left. PAAP very soon will say "haam garibo ki party aur garibo ke lieye kam karte hai". AK will look more and more like RAG. Look at what they have done with their two decisions. It is subsidy written all over the place. And people will also see their "asthma hata iti gaja" of half baked truth. Now we all know what fate that gentleman in maha bharata meet eventually who said "asthma ...". As they say in Hindi "kath ki handi bar bar nahi charti" You can cook food only once in a wooden pot. PAAP's food is being cooked in the wooden pot now and soon it will be consigned to the flame for ever.

saumitra_j · Post by **saumitra_j** » 02 Jan 2014 08:35

subhamoy.das wrote:I would say that letting PAAP form the govt was a master stroke to force them to reveal their true agenda

Agree completely, there is one more important point: It is important to keep PAAP busy screwing up in Delhi before the national elections as they are FAR more important than the municipality of Delhi. AK can be taken out later if the center is won. I know AK is getting free publicity and a lot of people have suddenly supporting AAP with give them a chance and what not - and in next four months they will screw up for sure, step by step. The only thing that can go in their favour is some stupids by from CONgress decide to withdraw support on ego issues - that will make PAAP to look like a victim. I am sure AK will do everything to provoke the CONgress to withdraw support and look like a martyr....

disha · Post by **disha** » 02 Jan 2014 09:36

svenkat wrote:ramanaji,
your expectations are wrong.BJP is a pretty ordinary in many places.In Delhi,it has little traction among the elite for whom it is still the petty shopkeeper party.Its Narendrabhai who has raised the high expectations.In Delhi,it is the party of Vijay Goel,Vijay Malhotra,Sushma Swaraj and Arun Jaitley.No patch on the superbly sophisticated crooks like Kapil Sibal,earthy Ajay Maken,diehard Punjabi refugee loyalists like Jagadish Tytler.They will not allow the petty bania to rule Delhi.in their eyes(and perhaps rightly too) kejriwaal,the Haryaanvi IIT-IRS guy has far better credentials than the petty BJP bania.

Jgadish Tytler after Congress win in 2004 proclaimed "ABV and LKA are pygmies before Indira Gandhi".They will never forgive the BJP for being a junior partner to Akalis.To the Punjabi sophisticated Hindu,its unimaginable to be held hostage by semi-fascist Akalis.the Punjabi hindu has managed to survive under 800 years of muslim rule,but to face the tensions of 1980s Punjab was betrayal.After all,are similar feelings not expressed by andhra people in Hyderabad in far more favourable circumstances?

Is Jagdish Tytler a punjabi hindu or a xtian? Anyway, it will be sheer stupidity of "punjabi hindus" if they look at Akalis through the prism of 80s. Longewala, Beant Singh assasinated, IG assasinated. End of story. Time for them to move on instead of doing a rona-dhona of the past.

For the first part - BJP is still seen as "Yindoo-bania" party. The level of scorn by the deracinated educated elites is seen to be believed. This DIEs feel better aping the west and showing their "poorer" cousins in bad light - and since the "Yindoo-bania" party "represents" them., it is okay to heap scorn.

And we get taken in by their "oh-so-uber sophistication" and give a short shrift to "behenji" Sushma and Arun Jaitley and their abilities.

-------------------------

Here are the "facts" as "I am seeing it" :

1. Congress *has* crumbled. In 2014 GE it will be wiped out as "proof".

In 2012-2013 elections., Congress has been effectively wiped out from Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh, Rajasthan, Delhi & Punjab. In fact, the entire Northwest is lost. Name a leader (Gehlot? Jogi? Sheila Dixit? Amirinder Singh?) from the Congress stable and several better BJP leaders crop up (Vasundhara Raje, Raman Singh, Dr. HV ...) - This was not even the case 15 years back! If somebody says Manohar Parrikar or Raman Singh - they would go - who? Heck even Raje or Dr. HV were unknown.

In fact 15 years back - if anybody would have said Narendra Modi - it would a big WHO!

* Congress has been wiped out from Central & Northwest. The alternative in NW is either BJP or a dynastic local party.

In South, AP has gone the dynastic way (KCR/Jagan/TDP) - basically they are behind the curve by some 10 years on what is going on else where (will come to that later)., basically - the power is going from the oldest party to local parties., the question is where will it go 10 years from now? It is not going back to the Dynastic Old and Grand (DOG) party but either to alternatives like "neo-Lefts" (AAP) or local Dynastic Old & Grand Pretenders (DOGP) parties - if the other national party like BJP is not in the equation.

For eg. Karnataka (JD/S, BJP), Tamilnadu (AIADMK/DMK/Several-Dravida-parties/BJP), AP (KCR/Jagan/TDP/BJP). Kerala, since they believe that it is God's own country, it is an outlier - but may still surprise!. Point is

* Congress is wiped out from South. To this add Maharashtra(SSes/NCP), Orissa (BJD) and West Bengal (Mamta) and Congress has lost Center, West, NW, South and South East.

Coming to UP and Bihar, it is either Sapa, Baspa, RJD or BhaJPa (Niku/JD(U) has been "Kondomned"). That is the power has shifted from CongIs to local dynasts with CongIs having zero presence with no future!

* From North Congress has been wiped out.

Of course CongIs are strong in Tripura, Assam, Kerala, Lakshadweep and A&N Islands - but it is a matter of time where those outliers crumble.

So where will CongIs get their new generation of leaders from? Name a CongI leader *NOT* from Delhi or associated with the Dynasty Durbar!! Kiran Kumar Reddy? Siddaramaiah? Jogi? - who else?

Heck with so much of paid media carpet bombing news of AAP/Kejriwal and having a "tyranny of distance" covering news from Raj/Guj/MP/Chattisgarh/... locals are aware of more BJP leaders!

Here is my personal "proof": I recently interacted with two very kind gentlemen (siblings) and their father was a freedom fighter and 3-term Congress MP (the entire family is illustrious - and waay up there in social strata) - so naturally it is expected that they and the friends/families associated with them will be Congress supporters. One of the brother ruminated Congress has no future and other said, Congress is an embarrassment but it will be most likely in power through proxy in 2014.

The point is, CongI Dynasty has crumbled. Now how will the new power equation look like?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 02 Jan 2014 10:01

Muppalla, You are right on the dot!!!

Hind Times:

Can Modi win BJP new allies?

The BJP's ability to win over new allies highlighting its prime minister candidate Narendra Modi will taste its first success when a few parties in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh join the National Democratic Alliance (NDA).

The first expansion of the NDA after Nitish Kumar-led JD(U)’s exit in July is expected mid-January, which marks the festivities of Pongal and Sankranti in the two southern states.

Vaiko-led MDMK and S Ramadoss-led PMK in Tamil Nadu and the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) in Andhra Pradesh are set to join the NDA.

The BJP also hopes it will successfully woo Tamil actor-turned politician Vijayakanth, who leads the DMDK and is assiduously being wooed by the Congress and the DMK too.

To try its luck in coastal areas, the saffron party finally decided to stay hitched to the TDP led by Chandrababu Naidu than with Jagan Mohan Reddy-led YSR Congress in Andhra Pradesh. Naidu was with the NDA till 2004.

Senior BJP leader Venkaiah Naidu, who is keen for a tie-up with the TDP, is counting on some Union ministers from Seemandhra region to contest under the BJP banner.

In Tamil Nadu, the PMK and the MDMK will formalise their decision to support Modi this week. Vaiko and Ramadoss concluded parleys with central BJP leaders a few days ago.

Vaiko confirmed that he had held talks with BJP leaders, saying his MDMK's main objectives were to remove the Congress-led government at the centre and also prevent formation of any other Congress-supported government.

According to Vaiko, support for the BJP was gaining and a "Modi wave" was visible across the country.

In fact, both Vaiko and Ramadoss had welcomed the BJP’s announcement of Modi as the PM candidate. While Vaiko has pockets of influence in southern Tamil Nadu, Ramadoss' party influence is over the Vanniyar community in northern part of the state.

Besides the MDMK and the PMK, the BJP hopes it could stitch a rainbow alliance by including regional outfits like Kongunadu Munnetra Kazhagam and Thevar Paervai.

The BJP's decision to leading a front of smaller parties came after Modi addressed a huge rally in Tiruchi in September. Its leaders decided against aligning with the DMK due to its image as a corrupt party. Jayalalithaa-led AIADMK made it clear that it was not keen for any alliance with a national party.

The saffron party eyes Kanyakumari, Coimbatore, Tiruchi, Tirupur and the Nilgiris Lok Sabha constituencies it had won in the 1998 and 1999 Lok Sabha polls.

Already, BJP cadres are on village-to-village campaign called "Veeduthorum Modi, Ullamthorum Thamarai (Modi in every household and lotus in every heart)".

It seeks to highlight Modi’s achievements and corruption under the UPA.

Wow who would have thunk even a few months ago that BJP would have candidates in non Karnataka states and hope to win.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 02 Jan 2014 10:24

Abhijit wrote:r
I have propounded this theory a few pages ago. I actually believe that AAP is eating more into congress and assorted other commies by trying to outdo them with a veneer of anti-corruption. I also do not subscribe to the CT's that AAP/AK are some kind of foreign/CIA/MNC/EJ/whatever puppets. I firmly believe (based on numerous personal anecdotes of talking to a whole bunch of IIT/IIM/Engg crowd) that AAP-vadis in the rest of the country are those that are so virulently anti-BJP that they would never vote for NaMo. So in the rest of the country, AAP will end up hurting COngress way more than BJP.

The media mangement of AAP is targetting BJP votes. They are trying to create a false campaign of votes for BJP is disappearing and going to AAp. Dont discount some clever media psy ops which will keep going.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 02 Jan 2014 10:29

Narayana Rao wrote:Sushma didi and Anantha Kumar did their bit to destroy Yaddi and it is good he is now back.

Met Few KA MPs. Yeddi will bring BJP back in KA and in Lok Sabha.
But things may change in the last min.

KA BJP has a iron fist organization

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 02 Jan 2014 10:34

Nandan Nilakeni may the surprise for replacing MMS as PM on Jan 3

Congress, PMO deny PM Manmohan Singh stepping down for Rahul Gandhi
Last Updated: Tuesday, December 31, 2013, 18:37

New Delhi: The Congress and the government on Tuesday scotched rumours that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh would announce his resignation Friday to make way for party vice president Rahul Gandhi.

Meanwhile, both the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) termed it dynastic politics.

Television channels, quoting sources, said the Prime Minister is likely to resign in his press conference scheduled Jan 3, paving way for Gandhi.

The government denied it.

"This report is completely baseless, based on conjecture and insinuation. I don't even think it should be dignified with a response," Information and Broadcasting Minister Manish Tewari said, responding to a question on Manmohan Singh's resignation.

"Media persons keep cribbing that he (prime minister) doesn't talk to them. Now that the prime minister has consented to talk to the press in the beginning of 2014, to even speculate in the manner in which it is being done, I think is in poor taste," he told Times Now TV channel.

Sources in the Prime Minister's Office too said the "PM will complete his full term".

There is speculation in the Congress that Rahul may be named the party's prime ministerial candidate Jan 17 when the party holds a conclave in Delhi ahead of the general elections likely April-May.

The Congress supported the PMO's view. "When there is a denial from the PMO, there is no need for a clarification," Congress spokesperson Meem Afzal told reporters.

He, however, refused to comment whether Rahul would be named the PM candidate next month.

Put the same question, Tewari said: "I can only refer to the statement of Congress president (Sonia Gandhi) that an appropriate decision would be taken at an appropriate time."

Finance Minister P. Chidambaram's remark Monday that the Congress should name its prime ministerial candidate ahead of the polls to give a clear signal to the voters added to the speculation.

The speculation has gained ground as many in the Congress see low probability of a third term for Manmohan Singh if the Congress is able to form a government after the elections.

They feel in that case Rahul should take over. But, opinion is divided on the issue.

Many feel announcing Rahul's name as the prime ministerial candidate would benefit the party against an aggressive campaign of the BJP's prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi.

Others feel since Rahul is already the official number two in the party and would lead the poll campaign, he would be the natural choice as the prime minister if the Congress has numbers on its side after the Lok Sabha polls.

Despite a clarification from the Congress and the government, the BJP and the AAP said it would be dynastic politics if Manmohan Singh resigns to pave way for Rahul.

"If we go by speculation, it is their choice who they want as prime minister. But if they bring Rahul Gandhi, it will be dynastic politics," BJP spokesperson Nirmala Sitharaman said.

AAP leader Kumar Vishwas, who is planning to contest against the Gandhi scion from Amethi in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, said: "In the whole political life of Rahul Gandhi, there is nothing except his Gandhi surname."

"Everyone knows the situation in Amethi. I think Congress is scared to keep him as an MP. They want to make him the prime minister. But it will be difficult to save him because people have decided," he said.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 02 Jan 2014 10:41

ramana, there is a big modi fever in TN. I spoke to at least few real pOlitic thinkers and what I grab is that Amma has made a huge mistake in not taking the oppty.

There is also big silence in rajnikanth mind. I think he has distanced from politics since his illness.

Bjp alone can grab 5-6 seats in TN.

Prem Kumar · Post by **Prem Kumar** » 02 Jan 2014 10:46

X-Posting in a few threads

***************

RajeshA: you had asked about some mythology connections either on this or NaMo thread. A couple of related analogies that might help gain some perspective of AAP/Kejriwal:

a) Puncturing the IIT-ian bubble: read this Panchatantra story (4 Brahmins & a Lion) on why education is inferior to common sense:

http://epanchatantra.com/PT/index.asp?No=116

A quotable quote that summarizes the moral of the story

Scholarship is less than sense;
Therefore seek intelligence:
Senseless scholars in their pride
Made a lion; then they died.

I snipped out the 2nd sentence of that quote & tweeted the rest. The 4 Brahmins are the so called "educated" Delhi voters, who dont realize that the creature they are creating will one day devour them

b) Puncturing the "simplicity" bubble: Simplicity of Kejriwal = "Pocket-empty-but-heart-is-full" style poverty glorification of 60s & 70s movies (Maana apni jeb se fakeer hein; Phir bhi yaaron dil ke ham ameer hein). Raj Kapoor, MGR etc all followed the same script. Its the hard-working, poor worker with a heart of gold, fighting against the class-enemy industrialist or zamindar. A paradigm like that is a disastrous recipe for an aspiring India with the world's largest youth workforce

member_20317 · Post by **member_20317** » 02 Jan 2014 11:05

disha wrote: Is Jagdish Tytler a punjabi hindu or a xtian? Anyway, it will be sheer stupidity of "punjabi hindus" if they look at Akalis through the prism of 80s. Longewala, Beant Singh assasinated, IG assasinated. End of story. Time for them to move on instead of doing a rona-dhona of the past.

Your post over all gave a great summary of recent history - helps with perspective. Thanks for that.

I think punjabi hindus are over that. Some of the same dynamics work in the uttarakhand too though at a much smaller level. Mulla-e-yum being a Yadav chief of a yadav sena, will be detested by most traditional conservative from uttarakhand who had taken the brunt of his goondagiri. But that does not stop an Uttarakhandi from appreciating another yadav aka BR.

The reason I believe Punjabi Hindus fall for Congress seems two fold:

1) the 80s terrorism. This I believe they have learnt to account for. The historical clarity achieved by the country on that part of history is too clear to be fudged. Nobody in his right mind, who is against terrorism, will go stand with Congress.

2) the comparatively larger impact of 'globalization' on the Punjabi youth. Most of the youngsters in that community want Canada to be their Noida. The trade, industry, agriculture - everything benefited them first. They also got exposed to the associated risks, the earliest. And this is so even in the interiors of Punjab. The vesh-bhusa, the lingo everything's different. Then there is the large social investments in the Punjabi culture.

Perhaps these guys will come around by next time. Perhaps something can be done even today before GE-14. Dekhte hain.

svenkat · Post by **svenkat** » 02 Jan 2014 11:13

We are not talking of ordinary punjabis,but punjabis with massive investments in status quo-India Today Aroon Poorie,Burkha dutt,Vinod Mehta,Kapil Sibal,Prabhu Chawla,Shekhar Gupta,Manish Tewari,army dalals,Tarun Tejpal,Shiela Dixit,Hartosh Bals,Ambika Soni,Dr MMS etc

kmkraoind · Post by **kmkraoind** » 02 Jan 2014 11:27

Ex-Infosys board member Mohandas Pai questions Nandan Nilekani's contribution to Bangalore city - Economic Times

"Many people I spoke to have asked me what Nandan has done for Bangalore. While Nandan has done (unique identity number) Aadhaar, I don't know what he has done for Bangalore," Pai told ET NOW in response to a question on whether he will campaign for Nilekani in the 2014 polls.

"There is deep concern among citizens that we are getting a person imposed from above to be an MP, who has not done grassroots work, not been around, who a particular party is trying to parachute here to be anomin ..

Pai can erase some of his bad Karma if he campaigns against UPA policies. I think he and Biocon's Shaw who floated BATF has done immense damage by showing BJP in bad light during previous assembly elections of KA.

Wondering why BJP is not creating assorted NGOs and other think tanks who are sympathetic to Indic cause. I think NaMo should concrete on this when he comes to power.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 02 Jan 2014 11:36

TOI is running a huge campaign for AAP. If a portion of that is true, its worrisome. Says averaging Rs 18L of donations/day. Either pys-ops, or the entire left-lib crowd + yuppie crowd that traditionally voted INC has jumped ship to AAP. Idiots.

member_23365 · Post by **member_23365** » 02 Jan 2014 11:47

subhamoy.das wrote:I would say that letting PAAP form the govt was a master stroke to force them to reveal their true agenda. There agenda was not to fight corruption but to engage in subsidy based vote bank politics. After all the dots are falling in line. PAAP has hijacked the cong(I) agenda of amm admi to the extreme left. PAAP very soon will say "haam garibo ki party aur garibo ke lieye kam karte hai". AK will look more and more like RAG. Look at what they have done with their two decisions. It is subsidy written all over the place. And people will also see their "asthma hata iti gaja" of half baked truth. Now we all know what fate that gentleman in maha bharata meet eventually who said "asthma ...". As they say in Hindi "kath ki handi bar bar nahi charti" You can cook food only once in a wooden pot. PAAP's food is being cooked in the wooden pot now and soon it will be consigned to the flame for ever.

Sirji, they way things have changed after AK swearing as CM.. chances of getting 10 seats from North of Delhi seems to be an uphill task. There is a lot of buzz in Haryana about AAP. There were 8 LS seats in Haryana which Congress will loose, before AK episode all were fair game for BJP and allies but looks like AAP is going to gatecrash the party and divide the anti-incumbency vote which may benefit Cong eventually. In Punjab people are fed-up with Akalis but Modi was ray of hope. Now with AAP Urban votes which would have gone to BJP will surely go to AAP way. Chaiwallas are reporting even alliance of Manpreet Badal(who has a clean image) and AAP.
Himanchal, Dhumal and Virbadhar are one&same, both are knee deep in corruption so Cong==BJP is true. So AAP is going to dent BJP here as well.
There are lot of ticket-less leaders in these states who are going to jump to AAP ship.
When educated folks of Delhi are not contemplating about the ill-effects free doles how fair is to ask for reasoning from rural voters.Time for GE is very less. Had it been 2-3 yrs symptoms of chronic socialism would have started to emerge but not in next 3-4 months. These populist measures will work like steroids. With these populist measures AK has become the talk of countryside as well.
From my personal experience, I was trying to convert pakka Congis to Modi bakht and now they are chanting AAP....AAP.

Sachin · Post by **Sachin** » 02 Jan 2014 11:55

Acharya wrote:Nandan Nilakeni may the surprise for replacing MMS as PM on Jan 3

If rumours from the "most admirable co." are true, Nandan Nilekani is having many planned discussion sessions/debates with a variety of audience. People at "most admirable co." are "encouraged" to attend these sessions which happens in some club on a week end.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 02 Jan 2014 12:00

svenkat wrote:We are not talking of ordinary punjabis,but punjabis with massive investments in status quo-India Today Aroon Poorie,Burkha dutt,Vinod Mehta,Kapil Sibal,Prabhu Chawla,Shekhar Gupta,Manish Tewari,army dalals,Tarun Tejpal,Shiela Dixit,Hartosh Bals,Ambika Soni,Dr MMS etc

Tewari is only a Bimari. Rest of them are Dilliwalas and not Punjabis.Most of them dont even speak the Tongue, just like many Sardar ji in Delhi dont speak Punjabi but local Hindi Bhasha.

abhik · Post by **abhik** » 02 Jan 2014 12:03

kmkraoind wrote:Ex-Infosys board member Mohandas Pai questions Nandan Nilekani's contribution to Bangalore city - Economic Times

"Many people I spoke to have asked me what Nandan has done for Bangalore. While Nandan has done (unique identity number) Aadhaar, I don't know what he has done for Bangalore," Pai told ET NOW in response to a question on whether he will campaign for Nilekani in the 2014 polls.

"There is deep concern among citizens that we are getting a person imposed from above to be an MP, who has not done grassroots work, not been around, who a particular party is trying to parachute here to be anomin ..

One Infocians maharathi taking on another gave me the lulz

. Like someone said earlier if Nandan Nilekani stands for elections, Infocians will gang up against him to ensure his defeat.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 02 Jan 2014 12:36

abhik wrote:One Infocians maharathi taking on another gave me the lulz . Like someone said earlier if Nandan Nilekani stands for elections, Infocians will gang up against him to ensure his defeat.

http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report-in ... ty-1943834

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 02 Jan 2014 13:26

Prem Kumar ji,

thanks. It was a great analogy! I've retweeted it already.

kapilrdave · Post by **kapilrdave** » 02 Jan 2014 13:54

svenkat wrote:ramanaji,
your expectations are wrong.BJP is a pretty ordinary in many places.In Delhi,it has little traction among the elite for whom it is still the petty shopkeeper party.Its Narendrabhai who has raised the high expectations.In Delhi,it is the party of Vijay Goel,Vijay Malhotra,Sushma Swaraj and Arun Jaitley.No patch on the superbly sophisticated crooks like Kapil Sibal,earthy Ajay Maken,diehard Punjabi refugee loyalists like Jagadish Tytler.They will not allow the petty bania to rule Delhi.in their eyes(and perhaps rightly too) kejriwaal,the Haryaanvi IIT-IRS guy has far better credentials than the petty BJP bania.

Jgadish Tytler after Congress win in 2004 proclaimed "ABV and LKA are pygmies before Indira Gandhi".They will never forgive the BJP for being a junior partner to Akalis.To the Punjabi sophisticated Hindu,its unimaginable to be held hostage by semi-fascist Akalis.the Punjabi hindu has managed to survive under 800 years of muslim rule,but to face the tensions of 1980s Punjab was betrayal.After all,are similar feelings not expressed by andhra people in Hyderabad in far more favourable circumstances?

Just talked to my guest from delhi who is an old sanghi. He says many of RSS swayamsevaks also voted for farji. The reason was the same as you have said. Delhi bjp was more badnam than munni in the eyes of delhites. Most of them said that they always voted for bjp, but now this time we will vote to AAP 'for a change'

. Actually they voted for farji for showing guts to the dynasty, something that they were waiting to be done by LKA & co. for ages. But after seeing the narrow defeat for Dr. HV and the show-bazi of faji they are starting to kicking themselves. He is of the opinion that delhites will be disillusioned very soon. Most delhites understand the hot air being spread about water tax. They say water will come only when there will be pipelines and sufficient source of water. Taxed or free doesn't matter.

kapilrdave · Post by **kapilrdave** » 02 Jan 2014 14:11

Muppalla wrote:Arun Menon: I am 100% confident that AAP will only help Modi's march to victory. My only belief is that there should never be any strategy where a lease of life should be given to any enemies. In that aspect I was hoping that BJP will just go for a kill instead of these strategic spins.

I guess the plan will be to concentrate on the seats where bjp has everything to lose but cong has nothing.

niran · Post by **niran** » 02 Jan 2014 15:30

Hari Seldon wrote:niran saar,

Quick Q... how did your source's predictions turn out for the last assmbly polls? Especially for Delhi? If they're close (and I hope they were) then it gives much more confidence in the amazing numbers you are hinting at...

all in all beter than calculations permutations by experts
in MP 23 seats more than best guesstimate remember that two weeks before voting bjp was losing ground reinforcement in the form each and every bjp campaigner had to be brought in, so much so
that dilli unit when they declared the election manifesto onree AJ was present from the national leaders
in dill the ccount is negative by 4 seats, particularly the 4 seats SAD contested onree one won.
dilli was given to NitinG just to assuage his ego and hence keep the curry flow intact, the show is beyond
expectations NaMo and compay had been patting NitinG hea...err back hence the reason for soosooma
outbursts about gutbaji caused dilli loss.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 02 Jan 2014 15:32

Dunno if Vicky Nanjappa's source is musharraf based or not but here's what caught my eye...

What the AAP is banking on is the mood of the public following the Delhi polls and also an internal survey of the BJP which itself states that they are 50 seats down in urban India when compared to the 110 they thought they would get a month back. Bangalore is an extremely important bastion for the BJP as currently it holds all the three constituencies- North South and Central.

http://vickynanjappa.com/2014/01/02/aap ... ave-is-it/

Any thoughts, folks in the know?

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 02 Jan 2014 15:42

based on my own WAG (wise as$ guesswork) and sampling (friends, peers etc), I think the above is correct.

A lot of the people who had jumped to the modi bandwagon or were moving them were reluctant at best - left lib sensitivities, not comfortable with BJP or his chai wallah background, etc etc.. they were just INC types or first time voters who wouldnt vote INC... now they are all in the AAP wagon. sharing AAP stuff, none of them really into checks of AAP fellow travellers...even the BJP voters have been affected and impressed by all the IIT-people like us- super successful david vs goliath stuff.. sad to say, but MSM has finally found a worthy alternative to RaGa.

many fools are joining up the AAP wagon and thinking they are national saviors. donating dinero etc.

I also think AAP is also being funded heavily by INC to cut Modis chances and that is going to be fudged as peoples donations etc.

expect english media to now daily sell AAP as alternative to Modi 24/7.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 02 Jan 2014 15:44

BTW, to be honest, i took rajeshAs claims as AAP being INC redux/v2 set up by INC itself with some skepticism. now, i think its true.
yogendra yadav was himself part of RaGas inner circle till 2011.

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 02 Jan 2014 16:00

Narayana Rao wrote:Just now seen seen a bollywood Muslim hero, I don't know his name but he acted in chanikya tv serial as senapathi Bhadrashal, praising khajri. Left and jihadists forces plan to weaken modi wave by all this rubbish.

Irfan minus 'Khan'. He has just removed 'Khan' from his name. Very very pure lefty. I remember seeing many of his skits on doordarshan during mid 80s where he used to play 'Lenin' glorifying bolshevik revolution.

A friend had met him once over drinks due to some connection and said he didn't talk anything other than marxism agendas. He has just removed 'khan' from his name and openly says he's not a muslim but an atheist.

kapilrdave · Post by **kapilrdave** » 02 Jan 2014 16:18

Karan M wrote:BTW, to be honest, i took rajeshAs claims as AAP being INC redux/v2 set up by INC itself with some skepticism. now, i think its true.
yogendra yadav was himself part of RaGas inner circle till 2011.

+1

The moment you start thinking SG as not congress president but as a power hungry foreign agent, everything starts making more sense. She has nothing to do with congress party but with power. In fact in the process of damaging the country and sticking to power she has effectively damaged the congress beyond repairable. Everything that she did had a purpose. Her marriage with RG (to tame IG's middle finger to the west), RG's death, her sudden emergence after Pokhran-II, taking out all emerging leaders in cong (including leaders of CG who could win them the recent election), scuttling economic/military/strategic development... All makes sense. Sheila didn't want to let AAP being created and then supported, yet the 'high command' insisted on it. Even after election, delhi cong didn't want to support AAP but again the high command.

SG and RG care only for themselves. They have no problem in accusing their own leaders for corruption, not even the PM. They don't mind their leaders going to jail. They are fine with just about anything as long as they stick to unlimited power without responsibility. They control the media but even still they are letting them to propel farji. Just think how a congi leader would be feeling right now! Those who have bulldozed them are being supported by their own high command. Irrespective of the election outcome in 2014, it is safe to assume that congress party will be broken to pieces after the results. The only thing to be seen is that whether they will be able to transfer the baton to farji.

abhik · Post by **abhik** » 02 Jan 2014 16:25

Hari Seldon wrote:Dunno if Vicky Nanjappa's source is musharraf based or not but here's what caught my eye...

What the AAP is banking on is the mood of the public following the Delhi polls and also an internal survey of the BJP which itself states that they are 50 seats down in urban India when compared to the 110 they thought they would get a month back. Bangalore is an extremely important bastion for the BJP as currently it holds all the three constituencies- North South and Central.
http://vickynanjappa.com/2014/01/02/aap ... ave-is-it/

BJP thought they would get 110 seats from just urban India? Then how much were they expecting from rural? 300, for a total of 400? Doesn't add up.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 02 Jan 2014 16:31

everything about farji screams daal main kaala to me. sudden magsaysay award from nowhere for 2-bit NGO work. and that is put up by ford. ford then gives him and sisodia 1.6 Cr for nothing. outcome was zero and they admit it. so where else does one get this kind of money and why did they give him the money for zero results?

meanwhile this guy keeps starting and dropping NGOs one after another, and nobody stops him and he keeps attracting people (yeah right) - on social media and elsewhere, its clear he has paid supporters who keep the stuff running while the recent messianic support is a new thing. dixit said as much in her own interview. on social media, there were cribs from some AAP types they hadnt been paid on time. so while we focus on the outside support- middle class volunteers etc, clearly there were ppl who were paid activists/organizers as well. where did this guy get so much funds?

a business runs on consistent cashflow. claiming online donations etc did the trick. yeah right

so he has enough money to keep moving without being stopped and having to keep others happy. in contrast see sabhkok, IAC, jansatta etc - all ended up nowhere thanks to ambitious aims and limited funds. but kejri keeps going. and in the process he uses ramdev, rss, anna etc - and drops them. this guy is basically a deep INC guy who is now marching to his own agenda (power). articles on him show he only listens to bhushan and yadav (latter especially).

both have long links with left-INC. INC is willing to let him do what he wants to stop Modi (even if we believe SG and RG are only doing it tactically) but my take is he will replace INC and is 10X more dangerous than INC in short term (unnatural exuberance of middle class to find some idiot who will save them from their own stupidity).

but in the long term, this guy is still new to actual power politics and MSM etc are supporting him because of clear mandate from INC. all that support can be downgraded. his supply of $$ can also be cut down. plus he simply does not have the caste-power equations to advanced beyond the urban areas until and unless INC satraps all jump ship to AAP.

IMO this is why INC is letting him play spoiler. they think he doesnt have the staying power to be a true nuisance. plus he is already compromised. many of his supporters are linked to INC.

basically for now, he is INCs greatest hope to stop modi. just look at the way INC announced support to kejri and sheila's resigned demeanour when she cribbed her own ppl did not support her. basically, there were wheels within wheels and this happened.

member_20317 · Post by **member_20317** » 02 Jan 2014 16:46

kapilrdave wrote:
Karan M wrote:BTW, to be honest, i took rajeshAs claims as AAP being INC redux/v2 set up by INC itself with some skepticism. now, i think its true.
yogendra yadav was himself part of RaGas inner circle till 2011.
+1

The moment you start thinking SG as not congress president but as a power hungry foreign agent, everything starts making more sense. She has nothing to do with congress party but with power. In fact in the process of damaging the country and sticking to power she has effectively damaged the congress beyond repairable. Everything that she did had a purpose. Her marriage with RG (to tame IG's middle finger to the west), RG's death, her sudden emergence after Pokhran-II, taking out all emerging leaders in cong (including leaders of CG who could win them the recent election), scuttling economic/military/strategic development... All makes sense. Sheila didn't want to let AAP being created and then supported, yet the 'high command' insisted on it. Even after election, delhi cong didn't want to support AAP but again the high command.

SG and RG care only for themselves. They have no problem in accusing their own leaders for corruption, not even the PM. They don't mind their leaders going to jail. They are fine with just about anything as long as they stick to unlimited power without responsibility. They control the media but even still they are letting them to propel farji. Just think how a congi leader would be feeling right now! Those who have bulldozed them are being supported by their own high command. Irrespective of the election outcome in 2014, it is safe to assume that congress party will be broken to pieces after the results. The only thing to be seen is that whether they will be able to transfer the baton to farji.

ACrookedMTA

.

And that means there would be people who have been shortchanged in Congress over the years but who may still be itching for a revenge. Because all the mother-son duo have done is change faces. The policies are exactly the same. The direction has not changed one bit.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 02 Jan 2014 17:11

kapilrdave wrote:
Karan M wrote:BTW, to be honest, i took rajeshAs claims as AAP being INC redux/v2 set up by INC itself with some skepticism. now, i think its true.
yogendra yadav was himself part of RaGas inner circle till 2011.
+1

The moment you start thinking SG as not congress president but as a power hungry foreign agent, everything starts making more sense. She has nothing to do with congress party but with power. In fact in the process of damaging the country and sticking to power she has effectively damaged the congress beyond repairable. Everything that she did had a purpose. Her marriage with RG (to tame IG's middle finger to the west), RG's death, her sudden emergence after Pokhran-II, taking out all emerging leaders in cong (including leaders of CG who could win them the recent election), scuttling economic/military/strategic development... All makes sense. Sheila didn't want to let AAP being created and then supported, yet the 'high command' insisted on it. Even after election, delhi cong didn't want to support AAP but again the high command.

SG and RG care only for themselves. They have no problem in accusing their own leaders for corruption, not even the PM. They don't mind their leaders going to jail. They are fine with just about anything as long as they stick to unlimited power without responsibility. They control the media but even still they are letting them to propel farji. Just think how a congi leader would be feeling right now! Those who have bulldozed them are being supported by their own high command. Irrespective of the election outcome in 2014, it is safe to assume that congress party will be broken to pieces after the results. The only thing to be seen is that whether they will be able to transfer the baton to farji.

I'm glad that the Conspiracy Theory is sounding less and less like the imagination of my musharraf!

There is a substantial move taking place among the urban youth towards AAP. It needs to be stopped.

The good thing is this section of the people are into Social Media. So there is going to be an SM war and Bharatiyas better be able to convince the youth not to become AAPtards.

kapilrdave · Post by **kapilrdave** » 02 Jan 2014 17:32

My 2 bit advise to those who have/will bang their head with AAPtard rocks. Don't get disappointed by their cold/arrogant response. No one likes to admit their foolishness to others. Even on this forum I have yet to see anyone saying - Oh I was fool to believe this and that, I admit that you are right. But that doesn't mean they are not starting to think the other way also. When a person hears the views that are contradictory to himself from multiple sources, he is forced to change his view. So by all means go with full force on them. They being ignorant/arrogant is a good sign.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 02 Jan 2014 17:36

have to agree that its the end of Congis in urban india - mass scale desertions will be the norm.
at rural level some strong state level leaders might be able to stick around but like sharad pawar might see fit to start their own outfit for a better grip on power.

prahaar · Post by **prahaar** » 02 Jan 2014 17:47

Singha wrote:have to agree that its the end of Congis in urban india - mass scale desertions will be the norm.
at rural level some strong state level leaders might be able to stick around but like sharad pawar might see fit to start their own outfit for a better grip on power.

Maan. SharadchandraRaoji Pawar Saheb already deserted the Congi ship almost 15 years back (when SG entered the arena).

On a note related to MH, is the NaMo-Pu.Bhide-Bhonsle rally still on? NaMo official calendar does not mention this particular appointment, on 5th it shows a rally in Delhi.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 02 Jan 2014 17:50

I know. just gave that as a template for other congi kshatraps to follow. a successful precedent of someone who broke away from HIGH COMMAND and koi kuch ukhaar nahi paya.
the PA Sangma dynasty in the form of agatha sangma is also doing well.

the one who probably lost out is tarun gogoi...but he is not startup material...his probable successor in 2014 himanta biswa sarma however is very seasoned student leader from even his school days and has bigtime admin experience and street smartness...has good contacts with TV channels. legend says he gave a speech during assam agitation to a huge crowd when he was in class6. definitely worthy of founding his own outfit.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 02 Jan 2014 18:33

Guys, bear with this boring table of mine, but I promise it will be informative

Here is a list of all tier 1 and 2 cities in India, covers all metros, large cities and million plus cities.

Now lets do the following
1. Remove seats from this list where BJP is irrelevant
2. Seats where BJP does not fight, but its NDA partners contest
3. All seats in Gujarat ( I am pretty sure that AAP wont be able to do any damn thing in Gujarat)

Here is the refined table

Now as I have marked in that table, there are bunch of seats where AAP will not have any effect and if at all they did have any effect, not enuf to dent BJP or congress prospects.

So here is the final table with seats in decreasing order of AAP influence.

A total of 27 seats. The ones highlighted in red (21 seats) are the only seats where BJP needs to do something to guard its voters from choosing AAP. Rest all is hawa, media gas. The remaining 6 are where AAP may have some influence, but does not affect BJP. Like in Nagpur BJP will anyway lose or in Jaipur whatever AAP does, BJP will still win.

So at best AAP can damage BJP in 21 LS seats of which 13 are in Delhi and Mumbai. And moreover in Mumbai BJP may contest only 3 seats. So that boils down to 18 seats. So BJP may have won lets say 12 of these 18 seats if not for AAP. Now lets say they win 6 seats. So what did AAP achieve, screw BJP in 6 seats.

This is where I tend to subscribe to Rajesh ji's theory. The aim of AAP is not to split BJP vote, I think it more of an operation my Sonia and her masters to move their assets to a new bottle.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 02 Jan 2014 18:34

Hari Seldon wrote:Dunno if Vicky Nanjappa's source is musharraf based or not but here's what caught my eye...

What the AAP is banking on is the mood of the public following the Delhi polls and also an internal survey of the BJP which itself states that they are 50 seats down in urban India when compared to the 110 they thought they would get a month back. Bangalore is an extremely important bastion for the BJP as currently it holds all the three constituencies- North South and Central.
http://vickynanjappa.com/2014/01/02/aap ... ave-is-it/

Any thoughts, folks in the know?

Hari Sir,

Vicky is smoking pot, urban indian and 110 seats for BJP??? Kahan se aayega these 110 seats. All of India's tier 1 and 2 cities combined have 79 urbans seats. Media is blabbering some 200 figure where ladakh is considered urban .Of these BJP is in play in some 50 odd seats.

member_22539 · Post by **member_22539** » 02 Jan 2014 19:00

Muraliravi, I have to say your post is a breath of fresh air in this CT and dhoti-shivering season. You have backed up your argument with solid analysis as well. I hope more people pay attention to your info rather than vent their unfounded fears and go about fear-mongering. + 1 from me.

Comer · Post by **Comer** » 02 Jan 2014 19:03

kapilrdave wrote: He says many of RSS swayamsevaks also voted for farji.

This is a very chastening post. If RSS folks can vote for Kejriwal then the rot has really set in. Then one can't really count on them to rally under Modi then. Then who exactly the core supporter for Modi?
Maybe this country deserves further screwups before it wakes up then so be it. Better to focus on 2019. If the core group deserts and joins a commie naxal like Kejriwal and his group then there is not much that can be done.
EDIT: Arun Mennon, saw your post before posting mine. Let my dhoti shiver stand anyway