Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

[Karan M]

i have pretty much lost all respect for most of the media. earlier i used to be surprised at their incompetence, later thought it was laziness, then bias..now its pretty clear that its both bias and lucre which motivates them. i hope if NaMo comes, DDM is firmly brought to heel.

you should have seen yesterday evening on headlines today how Rahul Kanwal was batting for AAP. Totally biased, loud and trying to outdo arnab. Tried various tricks to intimidate sswamy. Single point agenda of media is to show BJP is afraid of AAP.

kanwal is an arrogant sl1meball. but then again so are most of these media crooks.

[Karan M]

btw the heerow of nationalism arnob asked a bjp spokesperson if she would leave her party as protest because some bjp legislators participated in some karnataka govt junket.

[member_28352]

^^^PMANE and patriot are unlikely companions. Rest as i said it all fits in with 543 local election formula. In Mallapuram expect AAP to be named as Muslim League (American Awami Party).

[Comer]

^^ patriot was sarcastic onlee

[muraliravi]

I am not sure how many people you all guys meet and talk in person. My sample is NOT huge, but a few 100 a month. And they are activists who are interested in bringing good law-drafts and they speak to 100s around them. The feedback I am getting is that many middle class in Ahmedabad are taking AAP seriously because of fall in electricity prices in Delhi . The MNC-owners have paid mediamen to write that AK reduce electricity rates by stopping thefts that was done by electricity companies !! And thus MNC-owners are paying paid-mediamen to project AK as "man of action" !!!

Now this Ahmedabad. So rest of India will be worse.

Sir,

TOI fake survey itslef gives AK onlee 31% vote in Ahmedabad and approx 10% to Raul baba. Here are the results of Ahmedabad West and East in 2009

Ahmedabad West

1 1 Dr. Solanki Kiritbhai Premajibhai 376,823 54.6% Bharatiya Janta Party AC View
2 2 Parmar Shailesh Manharlal 285,696 41.4% Indian National Congress AC View

Ahmedabad East

1 1 Harin Pathak 318,846 53.4% Bharatiya Janta Party AC View
2 2 Babaria Dipakbhai Ratilal 232,790 39.0% Indian National Congress AC View

I dont need to know rocket science to guess from where AK is getting his 31%. I repeat for the nth time, Namo has his voters locked at least for 2014 LS.

[member_28352]

http://ibnlive.in.com/news/bjp-must-tak ... 55-81.html
BJP must take the AAP challenge seriously: Mohan Bhagwat

[muraliravi]

http://ibnlive.in.com/news/bjp-must-tak ... 55-81.html
BJP must take the AAP challenge seriously: Mohan Bhagwat

Ram Madhav has already tweeted 2-3 times saying that Mohan Bhagwat issued no such statement and is going to sue the media outlets quoting him.

[Singha]

AAP NGOmaocracy will be a thinly veiled takeover of the country by foreign funded NGOs of all stripes + their offshore shadow backers + EJpasand warlords + caliphate peerzadas

bring back good old Raul baba I say...even congi dynastocracy was much better in 20/20 hindsight

[member_28352]

Singha-saar.. Yes Raul baba/Priyanka didi look saner than these fraudsters anyday.

[prahaar]

A story from Panchatantra...

Seek permission to share freely over email/SM. Attribution to kalchiron.blogspot.com ?

[ramana]

I suggest "modern panchatantra" lest some idiot doesn't get it.

[Atri]

A story from Panchatantra...

Seek permission to share freely over email/SM. Attribution to kalchiron.blogspot.com ?

yea yea.. its already there on blog..

[jamwal]

टाइम्स ऑफ इंडिया का एक सर्वे आया है. सर्वे सिर्फ 8 बडे बड़े शहरों में लिया गया है. इस सर्वे में सिर्फ 2015 लोगों की राय ली गई है. ये शहर हैं दिल्ली, मुंबई, कोलकाता, चेन्नई, बैगलोर, हैदराबाद, पुणे और अहमदाबाद है.

इन शहरों में करीब 33 लोकसभा सीटें हैं. मतलब यह कि हर लोकसभा सीट के सिर्फ 61 लोगों से राय ली गई. जबकि इन सीटों में पर औसतन 20 लाख वोटर हैं.

वैसे भी ये सैम्पल साइज बहुत छोटा है. इसलिए इसकी विश्वसनीयता पर सवाल उठता है. समझने वाली बात यह है कि इन 33 सीटों में सिर्फ 3 सीटें बीजेपी के पास है. दो अहमदाबाद और एक बैंगलुरू साउथ की सीट...

इसके अलावा बाकी सभी 30 सीटें दूसरी पार्टियों के पास हैं जो बीजेपी के एनडीए में भी नहीं है. जबकि इन गैर बीजेपी सीटों में भी मोदी को 58%, केजरीवाल को 25% और राहुल को 14% प्रधानमंत्री का दावेदार मानते हैं.

अब जरा इस सर्वे को लेकर टाइम्स ऑफ इंडिया के निश्कर्ष को देखें तब समझ में आता है कि इस सर्वे को बड़ी चालाकी से किया गया है. यह भ्रम फैलाने वाला सर्वे है. इसमें बीजेपी को नुकसान बताया जा रहा है जबकि इस भ्रामक सर्वे के मुताबिक नुकसान दूसरी पार्टियों को होना चाहिए.. क्योंकि जहां बीजेपी के सांसद ही नहीं हैं वहां बीजेपी को कैसे नुकसान हो सकता है..

और जो आम आदमी पार्टी को 100 सीटें वाली बात बताई जा रही है वो भी भ्रामक है.. यह कोई सर्वे का निष्कर्ष नहीं है बल्कि 2015 लोगों की राय है कि देश भर में आम आदमी पार्टी कितना सीट जीतेगी...

जब से आम आदमी पार्टी राजनीति में कूदी है.. सर्वे चुनाव प्रोपागंडा का एक सटीक हथियार बनकर उभरा है.. कौन किस तरह से कहां और किस उद्देश्य से सर्वे कर रहा है उसका पता करना बड़ा मुश्किल है..

लेकिन देश की मीडिया .. मूर्खता के चरम पर है.. बिना सोचे समझे और विश्लेषण किए .. दनादन भ्रामक खबरों को दिखाने में जुट जाती है.. और प्रोपागंडा का हिस्सा बन जाती है..

इसलिए मेरा निवेदन है कि आप इन सर्वे को देखें.. तथ्य को समझें और इन सर्वे के उपर अपनी राय कतई नहीं बनाएं.

[Vamsee]

Atri ji,

Why didn't you say Indraprastha instead of Magadha?

[ramana]

Anujan pointed out to some of us the remarkable similarities between Imran Khan and his jihadi outifit PTI and Kejriwal and his AAP.

[member_20317]

See that is why I named Anujan ji da man "I appreciate the following posters writing..thanks!"

forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6396&p=1291834&hilit=anujan#p1291834

Was that the only thread by Mahadevbhu ever?

The RAW agent in the "Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan" thread and the "Benis" thread which also happen to be in the top 3 most creative threads ever.


forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewtopic.php?f=24&t=5600


I salute you O enlightened one on the holiest of holy days Thursday!

..............................................................

Meantime

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 594922.cms

"There is no need of AAP, we the Baap are here. Today, you are all talking about AAP, but I have been saying for the last many years that vote me to power in Maharashtra because things cannot change otherwise. I would fix Maharashtra's problems," he said.

I tell you he will crack. He will blink. He will end up with BJP+SS.

I am enjoying his dilemma. Hope he now sees how he is a usable commodity. Hope he has some spine and gives up on NCP etc. Aaja yaar hum UP ke bhaiya sab bhool-chook maaf kar dete hain.

[IndraD]

Breaking news------Kiran Bedi backs NaMo as PM candidate..! I wish she was pitted against Khujli as CM candidate from Delhi !

[jamwal]

Chetan Bhagat writing in support of Narendra Modi:

http://www.bhaskar.com/article/ABH-hama ... 4-NOR.html

किसी कॉलम में ऐसे विचार लिखना आसान नहीं है जो लहर के खिलाफ हों खासतौर से उन अच्छे इरादे वाले लोगों के खिलाफ जिन्हें हमने खुद प्रोत्साहित किया है। मुझे ऐसी ही दुविधा का सामना करना पड़ा जब मैंने आप और उनके संभलकर चलने की जरूरत के बारे में लिखा। आम आदमी पार्टी इन दिनों सबकी पसंद है। मीडिया उसकी तारीफ करते नहीं थक रहा है। गरीब उसे अपना मसीहा मानते हैं। बोर हो चुके अमीर एक्जीक्यूटिव अपनी नौकरी छोड़कर आंदोलन में शामिल हो रहे हैं। बड़ी संख्या में युवा आप को बढ़ाने के लिए आगे आ रहे हैं। केजरीवाल के प्रधानमंत्री बनने और लोकसभा चुनाव जीतने की चर्चा है।

आप इस तरह की प्रशंसा और समर्थन की हकदार है। वह ईमानदार, विनम्र और उत्साह से भरी है। पार्टी तेजी से जनमत को स्वीकार करती है, भले ही इसके लिए उसे अपने पुराने रुख में बदलाव करना पड़े। अनुकूल प्रतिक्रिया के मामले में वह मौजूदा राजनीतिक पार्टियों, जिनकी अगुआई ऐसे डायनासोर कर रहे हैं जो अपनी पूंछ में आग लगने के बावजूद टस से मस नहीं होते हैं, के बीच अलग खड़ी नजर आती है।

अगर आप अपने दांव सही तरीके से चलती है तो वह अगले दशक में प्रमुख राष्ट्रीय पार्टी बन जाएगी। हालांकि आप को महसूस करना होगा कि मुख्य चिंता आप नहीं है, बल्कि देश है। दुख की बात है कि आप की ताजा नीतियां और फैसले राष्ट्रीय हित के संदर्भ में कई बड़े सवाल खड़े करते हैं।

वोटरों की नजर में हीरो बनने के लिए आप ने दिल्ली में मुफ्त पानी सप्लाई और बिजली की दरों में सब्सिडी आधारित विचित्र कटौती की घोषणा की है। आंकड़े धुंधली तस्वीर पेश करते हैं, लेकिन कुछ अनुमानों के अनुसार इससे दिल्ली सरकार को एक वर्ष में हजारों करोड़ रुपए का नुकसान उठाना पड़ेगा। इस धन का उपयोग अस्पताल, स्कूल, फ्लाईओवर बनाने, रोजगार पैदा करने और कई अन्य उद्देश्यों के लिए हो सकता था। आप ने बिजली सेक्टर में कथित भ्रष्टाचार को कम करने और उससे हुए फायदे को बिजली टैरिफ में कमी के बतौर जनता तक पहुंचाने का वादा चुनाव में किया था, लेकिन सब्सिडी के आधार पर टैरिफ में रियायत का निर्णय गैर-जिम्मेदाराना है। यदि आप के बिजली टैरिफ फैसले को भारतभर में लागू कर दिया जाए तो लाखों करोड़ रुपयों का खर्च आएगा। ऐसे उपायों से देश की वित्तीय स्थिति चरमरा जाएगी और उत्पादक व उपयोगी निवेश के लिए बहुत कम धनराशि बचेगी। निजी क्षेत्र की कंपनियों को भी गलत संकेत गया है और वे बिजली सेक्टर में धन लगाना बंद कर देंगी। ऐसा करके आप ने वाहवाही लूटी है पर क्या इससे भारत का भला होगा?

आप द्वारा दिल्ली के कॉलेजों में दिल्ली वासियों के लिए 90 प्रतिशत आरक्षण की पहल पर भी गौर कीजिए। इनमें से कई कॉलेज नेशनल ब्रांड बन चुके हैं। इससे आप को दिल्ली में कुछ वोट मिल सकते हैं। हालांकि, कई स्तरों पर होने वाले नुकसान पर ध्यान दीजिए। इससे देशभर के छात्र सर्वश्रेष्ठ कॉलेजों में दाखिला लेने से वंचित हो जाएंगे। कॉलेजों को प्रतिभाशाली छात्रों से वंचित होना पड़ेगा। उनके ब्रांड को आघात पहुंचेगा। यह निर्णय भारत को विभाजित करेगा। लोगों पर दिल्ली में बसने के लिए दबाव बढ़ेगा। शहरी ढांचे पर बोझ पड़ेगा। इसके कारण अभिभावक अपने बच्चों को विदेश भेजने के लिए प्रोत्साहित होंगे। विदेशी मुद्रा का नुकसान होगा। क्या हमें इस सब पर बहस नहीं करनी चाहिए? दिल्ली के श्रेष्ठ कॉलेज पूरे देश में शाखाएं क्यों नहीं खोलते हैं।

एक बार फिर वही बात आती है। इस कदम से आप को फायदा हो सकता है, लेकिन क्या इससे भारत को फायदा हुआ है। आप ईमानदार हो सकती है, लेकिन यदि आप राष्ट्र के खजाने को नुकसान पहुंचाती है और अपनी पार्टी के लाभ के लिए नेशनल ब्रांड्स को नष्ट कर सकती है तो क्या आप पूरी तरह पवित्र है? या कि आप अब पवित्र नहीं रही?

आप में आम आदमी की जीवनशैली के प्रति दंभ और संपन्नता के लिए हिकारत का नजरिया भी दिखता है। अनाप-शनाप उपभोग गलत है। पर अच्छे रहन-सहन के लिए प्रयास करना और कड़ी मेहनत, ईमानदारी से कमाए धन को खर्च करना कैसे नैतिक दृष्टि से उचित नहीं है? पिछले दशक में लाखों भारतीयों ने कठिन परिश्रम करके अपनी जीवनशैली को बेहतर बनाया है। इससे हमारा प्रति व्यक्ति जीडीपी बढ़ा है। क्या हमें इसे हतोत्साहित करना चाहिए? क्या हम ईमानदार लेकिन गरीब भारत चाहते हैं? क्या आप गरीब समर्थक है या गरीबी समर्थक है?

ऐेसा क्यों हो रहा है? आप अभी से गलती क्यों कर रही है? पहला कारण-लोकसभा चुनाव लडऩे की जल्दबाजी हो सकता है। दूसरा कारण- भारत की जरूरत के अनुरूप दृष्टि का अभाव है। आप भ्रष्टाचार विरोधी आंदोलन की उपज है। अब वे राष्ट्रीय पार्टी बनना चाहते हैं। आप जो बनना चाहती है, उसके लिए नए सिरे से सोच-विचार की जरूरत है। उसे शासन चलाना सीखना होगा। यह भी स्पष्ट होना चाहिए कि वह कैसे भ्रष्टाचार मुक्त भारत और युवाओं के लिए लाखों रोजगार देने वाली मजबूत अर्थव्यवस्था को साकार कर सकती है। इसमें समय लगेगा। हालांकि, आसन्न चुनाव और उसे मिला समर्थन इस महत्वपूर्ण प्रक्रिया में बाधा डाल रहे हैं। इस जल्दबाजी में आप ऐसे गलत लोगों को आकर्षित करने का जोखिम उठा रही है जो बेहतर भारत पर सत्ता को तरजीह देते हैं। अगर आप लोकसभा चुनाव की दौड़ से हट जाती है तो केवल समर्पित लोग पार्टी में शामिल होंगे।

आप के 2014 का लोकसभा चुनाव लडऩे से त्रिशंकु संसद और खिचड़ी सरकार बनने के आसार बढ़ जाएंगे। इसका जो भी अर्थ हो पर कई विदेशी सरकारें, निवेशक और स्थानीय उद्योगपति महसूस करते हैं कि नरेंद्र मोदी भारत को तरक्की के रास्ते पर वापस ला सकते हैं। मैं नहीं जानता कि वे वर्तमान आप के बारे में ऐसा ही सोचते हैं। ऐसी स्थिति में भारत के लिए क्या अच्छा है? अपनी सभी बुराइयों के साथ कांग्रेस को भारत पर शासन करने का सबसे अधिक अनुभव है, जबकि आप को नहीं है। क्या उक्त अनुभव बेमतलब है? 2014 में जब हम भारत के बारे में सोचें तब क्या हमें इन फैक्टर पर विचार नहीं करना चाहिए। विजय के जोश में लोग बहक जाते हैं और बड़ी लड़ाई की तैयारियों की अनदेखी करते हैं। आप को इसके बारे में विचार करना चाहिए। नागरिकों को भी किसी राजनीतिक पार्टी की प्रगति की बजाय देशहित को वरीयता देनी चाहिए। देश की कमान ऐसे लोगों के हाथों में सौंपनी चाहिए जो न सिर्फ ईमानदार हों, बल्कि देश को आगे ले जा सकें।

[RajeshA]

Breaking news------Kiran Bedi backs NaMo as PM candidate..! I wish she was pitted against Khujli as CM candidate from Delhi !

Kiran Bedi should be the candidate from New Delhi. Akshay Kumar may be from Chandni Chowk. Both these seats are not sure for BJP otherwise.

[muraliravi]

While we guys are venting 24x7 about AAP, I dont for a second believe that Congress has given up. They have their own game. I will tell you how they can get 115 seats.

J&K - Despite all rhetoric they can win 1 Jammu seat.
Punjab - I repeat, they can ally with BSP and win at least 5 seats.
Himachal - With all the allegations and stuff, they will still win Shimla and Mandi
Uttaranchal - They may win 2 seats. Even BJP surveys are giving congress 1 seat
Delhi - Despite washout, they will still win Chandni Chowk
Haryana - Too much commotion in this state, congress triumphs in commotion, can win 5-6 seats.
Bihar - After this alliance with Lalu and Paswan straightened out, they will get 3 seats for themselves
Jharkhand - Congress will get 4 seats for sure
Assam - Expect 8 at the least
Rest of NE - 4 seats
WB - 1 seat
Orissa - They are on the rise here, expect 7 seats
TN - Zero
Kerala - 5 seats
Karnataka - 15 seats
UT's - 3 seats
Maharashtra - 13 seats (with MNS not trucking with NDA)
Madhya Pradesh - 3
Chattisgarh - 4
Gujarat - 4
Rajasthan - 1

So thats 92 seats without UP and AP. In UP if they can armtwist Maya with CBI running behind her and get her to agree to alliance and showcase her as future PM, she will be able to transfer her dalit votes to them in seats where congress contests, then the M+dalit combo will get them at least 15 seats.

In AP I am sure they will give Telangana statehood and get some 8 seats there. So that 115 for congress.

Now what they can do with 115, I am not sure

[jamwal]

Jammu LS seat will be hard to win for Congress.

[Shanmukh]

While we guys are venting 24x7 about AAP, I dont for a second believe that Congress has given up. They have their own game. I will tell you how they can get 115 seats.

J&K - Despite all rhetoric they can win 1 Jammu seat.
Punjab - I repeat, they can ally with BSP and win at least 5 seats.
Himachal - With all the allegations and stuff, they will still win Shimla and Mandi
Uttaranchal - They may win 2 seats. Even BJP surveys are giving congress 1 seat
Delhi - Despite washout, they will still win Chandni Chowk
Haryana - Too much commotion in this state, congress triumphs in commotion, can win 5-6 seats.
Bihar - After this alliance with Lalu and Paswan straightened out, they will get 3 seats for themselves
Jharkhand - Congress will get 4 seats for sure
Assam - Expect 8 at the least
Rest of NE - 4 seats
WB - 1 seat
Orissa - They are on the rise here, expect 7 seats
TN - Zero
Kerala - 5 seats
Karnataka - 15 seats
UT's - 3 seats
Maharashtra - 13 seats (with MNS not trucking with NDA)
Madhya Pradesh - 3
Chattisgarh - 4
Gujarat - 4
Rajasthan - 1

So thats 92 seats without UP and AP. In UP if they can armtwist Maya with CBI running behind her and get her to agree to alliance and showcase her as future PM, she will be able to transfer her dalit votes to them in seats where congress contests, then the M+dalit combo will get them at least 15 seats.

In AP I am sure they will give Telangana statehood and get some 8 seats there. So that 115 for congress.

Now what they can do with 115, I am not sure

MuraliRavi-ji,
I cannot say about the other states, particularly where the picture is hazy (like UP, AP, etc), but 8 in Assam is most unlikely. AUDF is going to get 2 (Karimganj and Dhubri), one of the Bodo parties is going to get Kokrajhar, and Diphu is going to an independent, most probably. That leaves only 10 other seats. It is most unlikely that Congress will win 8 of the 10. I would put it to around 5-6.

[muraliravi]

Jammu LS seat will be hard to win for Congress.

Can BJP win both seats in Jammu?

[muraliravi]

MuraliRavi-ji,
I cannot say about the other states, particularly where the picture is hazy (like UP, AP, etc), but 8 in Assam is most unlikely. AUDF is going to get 2 (Karimganj and Dhubri), one of the Bodo parties is going to get Kokrajhar, and Diphu is going to an independent, most probably. That leaves only 10 other seats. It is most unlikely that Congress will win 8 of the 10. I would put it to around 5-6.

Nagesh ji,

I agree that I might have overestimated here and there. But in general if they get 110 seats and if BJP gets 160, can BJP fail in govt formation and can congress pull it off?

[ramana]

...But in general if they get 110 seats and if BJP gets 160, can BJP fail in govt formation and can congress pull it off?

They will AAPify India. Under no circumustances BJP should allow the same charade to be repeated at the Centre.

[ramana]

One thing about democracy is the patient ones will wait out for age to and demographics to work the magic. Unfortunately in India the recalcitrant lives for ever and holds on to power till forced out.
In US every 30 years a new generation takes over and the older generation moves over or is relegated to minor hot button issues.
Even the Soviet Union and the Eastern Europe was able to throw out its Commies but India still hangs on to the Nehru legacy.

[muraliravi]

...But in general if they get 110 seats and if BJP gets 160, can BJP fail in govt formation and can congress pull it off?

They will AAPify India. Under no circumustances BJP should allow the same charade to be repeated at the Centre.

Well Ramana ji, In delhi as much as we would like to think, BJP had no options. All the AAP MLA's are well controlled by congress and external forces.

Now as for the general elections, BJP may and probably will have a little more leverage over smaller parties if they are within striking distance of power. All in all I think we should start the exercise of identifying 120 odd MP's who will support NDA.

So far I see, 6 from Akali, around 10 from Shiv Sena, 1 from RPI, 2 from MNS, 1 from HJC and maybe 1 from INLD, 30 odd from TN including AIADMK, possibly 22 from AP (TDP and TRS), 15 from BJD (despite all the crap he is dishing out). I see 88 here. Where will they the rest from is a million dollar question. The one person who can easily help them is Mamta, but i really doubt if she will support.

In spite of all gung ho predictions, when i say BJP at 160 it means in that case they will hit may 13-15 in Bihar. If Nitish was with them together they could have hit 33. That would have helped them a lot. What did Niku the fool achieve with his drama??

[IndraD]

will CON+LALU do any magic in Bihar, which way is the wind blowing? acc to my resources BJP's chances are bright.

[RajeshA]

There was an article about how based on NGOs and local pressure groups, AAP could build itself a huge following everywhere, where these activist groups would thus get a bigger propaganda platform.

I can't find the article. Would somebody be having a link to it?

TIA

[Shanmukh]

There was an article about how based on NGOs and local pressure groups, AAP could build itself a huge following everywhere, where these activist groups would thus get a bigger propaganda platform.

I can't find the article. Would somebody be having a link to it?

TIA

Here it is
http://centreright.in/2014/01/understan ... s77iJX8t0g

[RajeshA]

There was an article about how based on NGOs and local pressure groups, AAP could build itself a huge following everywhere, where these activist groups would thus get a bigger propaganda platform.

I can't find the article. Would somebody be having a link to it?

TIA

Here it is
http://centreright.in/2014/01/understan ... s77iJX8t0g

nageshks ji,

thanks a lot.

[vivek.rao]

How AAP is like Congress circa 1947 and why that can’t last

The party’s intellectual stalwart Yogendra Yadav has said on more than one occasion that AAP hopes to transcend what he calls the 20th century classifications of Left and Right in government. Prima facie AAP has already done that. It means all things to all people, at least in Delhi. The poor see in it a left-of-centre collectivist/welfarist party. The minorities see in it a secular political force.

Those who lean to the right see great virtue in its invocation of traditional right-wing symbolism like the battle cries of "Bharat Mata Ki Jai" and "Vande Mataram". The individualist (right leaning) middle class sees in AAP’s emergent the weight given to merit over lineage and feudal loyalties. The comparison may seem like a stretch but AAP is very much like the "Big Tent" the Indian National Congress was in 1947.

The Congress attracted all kinds of supporters: the poor, the nascent middle class, farmers, even businessmen. Its leadership was an eclectic mix of those who leaned left and those who bent right. Everyone was united against a common enemy: the British Colonial government. AAP too has the entire rainbow under its umbrella, united against an ‘evil’ political establishment.

It did not take long for the Congress to discover that while it was easy to mean all things to all people while it was a movement in opposition, it was considerably harder once in government. The Congress tried a middle non-aligned, mixed path. But slowly, but surely, the conflicted Congress—unable to satisfy all interests and constituencies at the same time—took its call and chose to turn left under the leadership of Nehru and Indira Gandhi. The rest is history.

AAP’s base instincts seem to turn left when in government. Its populist policies on water and power in Delhi are ample indicator of which way the party leans. Significantly, like the Congress under Nehru, there is a conviction that the government is superior to market forces provided it is manned by good honest people. AAP should read its history books. Neither the Congress nor the government of India was corrupt in the initial years after independence. Yet, its insistence on state-led development led India to stagnation. It also opened the door for a later incarnation of the Congress (in the Indira Gandhi era) to exploit that statist system for corruption.

I have no doubt that the current leadership of AAP consists of good, decent, honest men and women. But any system that depends on the goodness of individuals rather than the robustness of checks and balances and proper incentives cannot deliver prosperity to India. In India, the state has simply not delivered whether manned by good people or by bad people. That is why the AAP needs to be more welcoming of free markets than it is. But that would mean sacrificing its core as a collective movement, set up for the greater public purpose, and moving to a more individual-centric approach to policy.

Like Congress in the 1950s and 1960s, AAP will more likely turn left than right – it’s in the very nature of the populist mass movement that gave birth to it (moving Right rather than Left would also pose problems). Once it does, it will find that the general euphoria that has greeted its arrival will start to dissipate, quite quickly as one set of people find themselves seriously disillusioned. There are no giant umbrellas in the tough business of government.

[James B]

It seems NiKu's goose is cooked in Bihar

[James B]

A significant development

BSP snubs Congress, to go it alone in 2014

"There is no question of having a pre-poll alliance for the parliamentary elections. We will contest on our own," Mishra told TOI in what marked a blow to the fervent hope of a tie-up in certain Congress quarters. "We have already decided most of our 80 candidates," the Rajya Sabha MP said, adding there swas no reason for BSP to seek an alliance when it could do "superbly" on its own.

[vivek.rao]

http://www.rediff.com/news/report/is-a-revolt-brewing-in-the-congress-party/20140110.htm

For the last couple of days Congress president Sonia Gandhi and daughter Priyanka Gandhi have been holding meetings with the party’s vice president Rahul Gandhi at his residence on Tughlak Lane.


The buzz in the party is that Rahul is angry and upset at the manner in which senior leaders of the party have not been implementing any of the decisions taken by him, which makes him appear as a non-serious player in the Congress.

It is also learnt that there is a virtual revolt within the party over Rahul Gandhi’s style of functioning and his handling of senior leaders.

Rahul has been asking for a free hand in running the party (whom? Mamma? WOW! that shows DIEnasty is being remotely controlled) , the government and the various decisions to be taken in the run up to the general elections. But since that has not happened, the situation is beginning to look grim for Rahul.

Sources say this is the reason why Priyanka has been brought in. She has been asked to intervene and act as a bridge or an interface between Rahul and senior party leaders.

A leader said Priyanka had a long and detailed discussion with senior leaders to sort out some critical issues. These interactions are likely to continue in the days and weeks ahead.

A sulking Rahul has cancelled his Amethi tour for the time being. There are reports that he wishes to shift to his mother’s Rae Bareli constituency, which has been in the pipeline for some time now. But with Kumar Vishwas of the Aam Aadmi Party throwing his hat in the Amethi ring, an impression may gain ground that Rahul has been shying away from the contest.

Sources say that the situation within the Congress has deteriorated dramatically since Rahul took charge of the organisation and began taking his own decisions. The Congress set up is in a mood of “vidhroh”, said a senior leader and there has also been talk of internal sabotage within the party.

That explains why Union minister Jairam Ramesh, Rahul's blue-eyed boy, was at the receiving end of a strong and stinging attack from party general secretary Janardhan Dwivedi. Dwivedi tore into Ramesh for praising the AAP party and its leader Arvind Kejriwal, though he did not name Ramesh.

When asked about the praise of the AAP party by Ramesh and Prakash Karat of the Communist Party of India-Marxist, Dwivedi said that as far as Karat is concerned, anarchy and instability suits the politics of the CPI-M.

But referring to the Congress he said, “Ek ek worker dukhi hai, ek ek worker naraz hai aur ek ek worker ahat hai” (each and every worker is sad, upset and amazed (by Jairam’s remarks).”

Dwivedi said, “Brahm un logon ko hai jo rajnitik karyakarta nahin hai, jinhone kabhi rajnitik sanghursh nahin kiya hai. Jinko yeh mehsoos nahin hai ki kitni mehnat, kitna sangharsh aur kitni ghasitai ke baad ek party khadi hoti hai” (Only those workers are in doubt who aren’t political workers, who haven’t struggled in politics. They don’t know after so much hard work, struggle and suffering the party is born.)

Ramesh is not only close to Rahul but also gives input for his speeches, does his sundry jobs and briefs him regularly. Dwivedi’s remarks against him clearly indicate the Congress’s old guard’s displeasure.

While Sonia has been a traditionalist, mature peacemaker who feels the senior leaders cannot be sidelined and has a softer approach to running the party, Rahul is more utopian. He has a cut-and-dried solution to problems. He feels the organisation should be fully separate from the government and does not want anyone contesting the elections to be a part of the organisation.

Within his core team he does not have anyone who is desi -- they have all studied abroad and have a corporate approach to political issues.

Priyanka is a different kettle of fish. She says the toughest things with a smile and gets work done by taking everyone along. She is known to be well-informed on the activities of senior leaders and keeps tabs on whatever is going on within the party. She has an office in Jawahar Bhawan and sits there daily. She meets a number of people from the Congress who report to her on what is going on.

She is now tipped to be the madhyastha, the go-between, the bridge between the organisation, the government, and the family. In the new scheme of things a party functionary described her as the “asha ki kendra bindu”.

There is speculation on whether she would contest the Lok Sabha polls in place of her mother and whether she is being inducted into the Congress Working Committee. But whatever the role she chooses, the Priyanka factor is now well within the Congress framework and the objective is to increase the Congress seats from 70, the figure shown in internal surveys, to at least 125, to give the party a respectable total with which to keep its presence relevant in the post-poll scenario.

So the rebellion may be against the DIEnasty crooks. The workers realized what the Termite Queen is transferring all assets to AK and his gang to thwart Modi based on her high command where ever it is . They are realizing the game after Delhi and the fate of Sheila Dixit.

They are terrified. They see one by one all the crooks, NGOs, PAIDMEDIA jumping the ship where as DIEnasty is not revealing its hand to the ordinary workers. I wonder if PAPPU knows the full game being played by MOMMY. That's why they brought in Priyanka to soothe the revolt of the workers/leaders who are terrified

[RajeshA]

So the rebellion may be against the DIEnasty crooks. The workers realized what the Termite Queen is transferring all assets to AK and his gang to thwart Modi based on her high command where ever it is . They are realizing the game after Delhi and the fate of Sheila Dixit.

They are terrified. They see one by one all the crooks, NGOs, PAIDMEDIA jumping the ship where as DIEnasty is not revealing its hand to the ordinary workers. I wonder if PAPPU knows the full game being played by MOMMY. That's why they brought in Priyanka to soothe the revolt of the workers/leaders who are terrified

I really wonder whether Priyanka and Rahul see their future in India. Okay Priyanka has a family, but Robert Vadra's family has been done away with already, so he too can pack up and leave India where ever Priyanka should choose to move to. Rahul has no family ties to rest of India outside the dynasty and I really wonder if he has any real friends. He is anyway most of the time hopping off to Europe.

The question is do Priyanka and Rahul really feel they can build their lives here in India as unquestionable leaders of the Congress? Can they live like ordinary citizens just in case Congress rejects their leadership?

I am quite sure that if a NaMo administration takes away all their privileges beyond their MP and citizen status as should be the case, these pampered kids would not want to stay back in India, and this they are already sensing. Hence the lookout for a safe passage out!

[SwamyG]

The above article is either a massive psy-ops or Rahul does have a few good points. It is a psy-ops because, it portrays a picture of Rahul as the rebellious, anti-establishment ityadi who wants to change traditional way of Congress. His image is being painted as the individual who wants to revamp Congress. Congress is seen as old, dynastic, corrupt and not relevant to modern India. With the rising image of Modi and AAP, it is all the more essential that Congress reinvent itself. Rahul has been slowly building an image of an angry young man (of 43 years ), who wants to do away with the old and wants to usher the new. He has no time for MMS, and MMS is the leader who brought disgrace to Congress. It was Congress alliances that created the scams. So the image building exercise that has been going on, takes strides.

Or, maybe Rahul, like Rajiv is truly different....except that the coterie of dynasty wants a Nehru-Gandhi to be at the center for their own selfish reasons. The mother-daughter duo are more of the nurturer types, who nurture relations , while the son is the gang-bang (no pun intended) type who charts new territory and has to be reined in. To the credit of the children, every child wants to do something different from their parents.

In either case, a true Prince per dynasty standards. The next 5 months in politics is going to be interesting. I am planning to remove all cable channels and just have the news channel.

[ramana]

It looks like written by Shiela Bhatt in training!

Also note

But whatever the role she chooses, the Priyanka factor is now well within the Congress framework and the objective is to increase the Congress seats from 70, the figure shown in internal surveys, to at least 125, to give the party a respectable total with which to keep its presence relevant in the post-poll scenario.

Is this a DIEnasty conclusion that is the poll verdict?

muraliravi et al, Where are these 70 seats and the possible 55 seats?

[SwamyG]

It seems NiKu's goose is cooked in Bihar

Some are predicting less than 80 seats to Congress. I guess except the hard core voters of Congress and some of the regional parties, many are going to ditch the previous style of politics. Possibly many netas might lose their deposit. Nitish miscalculated massively. He probably still hopes Congress will step in to save him. Or now AAP. If the upanetas are deserting him for BJP, they are going to take away the votes as well. No amount of skull cap is going to save his political career in the short term. Maybe the third front, CPI(M) with AIADMK ityadi. Laloo is probably smiling.

[Shanmukh]

Jammu LS seat will be hard to win for Congress.

Can BJP win both seats in Jammu?

More than Jammu, the Congress may just manage to win in Ladakh. That seat traditionally features a Muslim vs Buddhist fight, with the Buddhists enjoying a small advantage. The Congress may just win this one.