Managing Chinese Threat

[sanjaykumar]

You are comparing an aberration of the murder of perhaps 10 000 Muslims and Sikhs as well as their antecedent killings of Hindus, and the slow but some measure of justice, to what can only be considered the Chinese cultural practice of wholesale liquidation of tens of millions of people. Without acknowledgement let alone remorse or atonement. Can you evenmake an explicit statement that Chinese killed millions? Or will they kill you as well?

No wonder Pakistanis are found emigrating to China but you will only find Indians in civilised places.

[Bade]

Managing Chinese threat has morphed into managing Japanese threat (imagined) from the Chinese point of view. Good heavens !

[DavidD]

You are comparing an aberration of the murder of perhaps 10 000 Muslims and Sikhs as well as their antecedent killings of Hindus, and the slow but some measure of justice, to what can only be considered the Chinese cultural practice of wholesale liquidation of tens of millions of people. Without acknowledgement let alone remorse or atonement. Can you evenmake an explicit statement that Chinese killed millions? Or will they kill you as well?

No wonder Pakistanis are found emigrating to China but you will only find Indians in civilised places.

Well well, someone's failing at this comparison business. Best to re-read my post and then comment.

[DavidD]

Now, back to the topic at hand:

Abe Visit to Controversial Japanese Shrine Draws Rare U.S. Criticism
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB1 ... TopStories

Mr. Abe's aides said what they cared about most was the U.S. reaction. "The biggest, or should I say, the only concern is what the U.S. would say," said a senior government official who was aware of the prime minister's plans in advance. He expressed confidence that the ties between the allies wouldn't be affected, noting that President Barack Obama was relying on the prime minister to help seal a deal over a trans-Pacific free-trade forum and to move forward plans to relocate U.S. troops in the region.

During an October visit to Tokyo, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel paid respects at the Chidorigafuchi National Cemetery, a tomb for Japan's unknown war dead, in a move widely seen as a message to Mr. Abe that there are alternatives to Yasukuni.

But Mr. Abe may have miscalculated the U.S. response, analysts said. "The U.S. reaction was unexpected. Mr. Abe is moving to bolster the Japan-U.S. alliance, and the focus is whether they can move beyond just a military alliance, and share values," said Koji Murata, a political-science professor and the president of Doshisha University. "The U.S. may be frustrated at Mr. Abe, who is obsessed with history issues."

The unusually tough U.S. statement may have consequences of its own by creating an impression that Washington is undercutting Mr. Abe.

"Beijing and Seoul can only interpret this as the U.S. siding with them against Japan," said Michael Auslin, director of Japan Studies at the American Enterprise Institute, adding that the statement will "ratchet up" tensions in the region.

This is a pretty clear indication of Abe's intentions. His actions are meant for the domestic audience, and although he knows what Korea and China's reaction would be, he doesn't care. He also judged, incorrectly, that because the U.S. needs him to achieve some of their goals, that they would not criticize his move. He's expended significant political capital to push through the gentan system, and a storm's coming to Japan's economy so he needs to shore up internal support ahead of it in order to hold onto power. This, ironically, is quite the same gameplan as leaders in China and Korea, i.e. drumming up nationalism in order to deflect domestic criticism.

[SSridhar]

China Offers Freebie in Strategic Push - Ananth Narayan, The Hindu

China has said it is willing to offer its neighbouring countries use of its home-grown satellite navigation system free of charge, in a strategic push that has already garnered interest from a number of countries including Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Thailand, according to officials.

Chinese officials said on Friday they intend to widen use of the Beidou satellite network, which already has 16 satellites serving the Asia-Pacific and has been promoted here as an alternative to the American Global Positioning System (GPS). The focus will be on countries in the Asia-Pacific region, and particularly in South and Southeast Asia, where the satellites offered the highest accuracy.

China has already agreed deals with Pakistan and Thailand on use of the Beidou network, officials said.

In recent months, China has also had consultations with Sri Lanka, for which it has already launched a satellite, and Bangladesh, over cooperation on satellite use.

China’s deepening cooperation with these countries prompted the Indian government, earlier this year, to belatedly prod the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) in being more active in providing technological assistance to countries in the neighbourhood in launching satellites.

For China, however, granting use of its 16-satellite Beidou network – which will be expand to 35 satellites by 2020 to provide global coverage – offers an added advantage.

“Most countries in the Asia Pacific region can use the complete Beidou system,” said Ran Chengqi, Director of China Satellite Navigation Office. “We have open attitude towards international cooperation, and we encourage Beidou to provide better services to the countries in the Asia-Pacific region.”

First agreement

In May, China signed its first inter-government agreement on the use of Beidou with Pakistan, Mr. Ran said, during the visit of Premier Li Keqiang to Islamabad.

Early next year, Thailand will become the first country to build a satellite station based on Beidou, with both countries signing a $ 319 million deal, according to State media.

Mr. Ran told The Hindu that while China was open to any country using the system, so far there was “no specific cooperation” between the Indian and Chinese governments. “With India, we now have cooperation only under the multilateral frameworks, such as the United Nations,”he said.

Mr. Ran said the system had improved its position accuracy to five to seven metres in many parts of China and in the ASEAN region, and to 10 metres in other parts of Asia.

Widely deployed

The system, which was first launched in 2011 for use only by the government and military, has over the past year begun to be widely deployed for civilian uses domestically, he said, with 80 per cent of passenger buses and trucks in China using the system. The Chinese State Council, or Cabinet, said in a September report that the domestic satellite navigation industry would be valued at 400 billion Yuan (Rs. 4 lakh crore) by 2020.

In a briefing on Friday, Mr. Ran said the system also offered vital support to China’s defence and security needs, describing it as a technology without distinction between civilian and military use, although he declined to comment on its defence applications. “What use it has for national defence,” he said, “is an issue for the Defence Ministry or Armament departments to consider.”

[Christopher Sidor]

It is said that till date we do not have a satellite navigation system of our own and have to depend on American GPS and the Russian System.

[rajrang]

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 111999.cms

If this was China instead of the US, would India have had the guts to respond in this mannner?
Something tells me probably not, but I could be wrong.

On a related matter, India is over-reacting (and getting emotional) especially when the US is the only country in the world that could PERHAPS save India if India came under direct Chinese threat (similar to what Japan is facing now). Mistakes happen and should be managed with wisdom.

Please do not derail this thread by digging into the details of the above episode with the US - that is not the point.

[ramana]

RR, Threat from PRC is different one than that from US.

India needs to help collapse the post colonial order. And that can happen only with PRC being given free hand.

India needs to come to terms with PRC to give it a free hand to complete the work of 20th Century.

[SSridhar]

Police Shoot dead 8 Uyghur 'terrorists' - Reuters, ToI

Police in China's restive far western region of Xinjiang shot dead eight people during a "terrorist attack" on Monday, the regional government said.

The incident happened in Yarkand county close to the old Silk Road city of Kashgar in Xinjiang's far south, the Xinjiang government said in a statement on its official news website (www.ts.cn).

[SSridhar]

India needs to help collapse the post colonial order. And that can happen only with PRC being given free hand.

India needs to come to terms with PRC to give it a free hand to complete the work of 20th Century.

I completely agree with ramana. I would only add post-colonial and post-Cold War era. India has a tightrope walk. China recognizes the innermost Indian position too and is also making the best use of it. It is a Great Game of hide-and-seek that is being played in which it is difficult to say where any player is at any point of time. Schrodinger's Cat.

[svinayak]

RR, Threat from PRC is different one than that from US.

India needs to help collapse the post colonial order. And that can happen only with PRC being given free hand.

India needs to come to terms with PRC to give it a free hand to complete the work of 20th Century.

PRC will become the best friend of India. PRC will not acknowledge it directly but will help in bringing a global change.

PRC will help India in ways it may never be imagined.

[johneeG]

Saars,
I was thinking about something(I fancy that I have got an insight, so I gonna propose a theory):
Generally, people think of tackling geopolitics or even military campaigns as chess moves. However, in chin's case, they may be influenced by the game 'go' or wéiqí.

Wiki Link:

The two players alternately place black and white playing pieces, called "stones", on the vacant intersections (called "points") of a grid of 19×19 lines (beginners often play on smaller 9×9 and 13×13 boards).[2] The object of the game is to use one's stones to surround a larger total area of the board than the opponent.[3] Once placed on the board, stones may not be moved, but stones are removed from the board if captured; this is done by surrounding an opposing stone or group of stones by occupying all orthogonally-adjacent points.[4] Players continue in this fashion until neither player wishes to make another move; the game has no set ending conditions. When a game concludes, the controlled points (territory) are counted along with captured stones to determine who has more points.[5] Games may also be won by resignation.

Go is played on a grid of black lines (usually 19×19). Game pieces, called stones, are played on the line intersections.

This game is popular in China, Japan and Korea. The main objective in the game is to capture territory by surrounding the opponent's piece by your own pieces. The two things that are immediately noticable is:
a) One with largest territory occupation is the winner.
b) To occupy territory you put up your own pieces to sorround that territory and overwhelm the opponent with numbers.

It seems that the chin's policies(both geopolitical and military) follow the same principles as this game. So, maybe this game influences their thinking. While, Bhaarathiya thinking(and rest of the world's thinking) is influenced by chess. In chess, the main objective is not occupation of the territory. Infact, ceding the territory or giving up pieces to be able to give decisive blow to the opponent forms a crucial part of the chess strategy. Defeating the state(i.e. Govt or sarkaar or the king) is the main objective of the chess. Once the king falls, all the rest of the pieces are considered to be defeated(or surrendered) in chess. In chess, there are different types of pieces. Where as in 'go', there are only one type of pieces and the only way to win is by sheer numbers. The one with numberical advantage(in a give location) wins.

[Anand K]

IMHO it is inevitable that a major conflict, where a strategic victory like that in '62 can be achieved, will be actively sought by China. China needs that for, among many other things (such as TSP, Tibet and Turkestan), to reshape the world order (and cement CPC-PLA power, assuage their messed up worldview/teen angst). I mean, at the end of the day what will a shooting war with Japan or Vietnam or the Philippines give them? Risk is more with India but so are the returns. Hey, maybe whatever new government in India might also toe the Chinese line if things go their way and maybe the Americans will wink their eye as the result of some strategic calculus!

OTOH India can get what it wants without checkmating/defeating the Chinese in a shooting war, Tibetans gaya phaad mein. Not much juice in seeking conflict with China. IMO. OTOH 400% peace with China would be a BIG boost though, again Tibet gaya phaad mein. But what will China really gain in return for this p1ss and tranquility as against what it gets with the status quo? We gonna toady to their efforts in East and SE Asia, unless we have no choice?

PS: Historically we didn't fight each nother because we had a giant a$$ plateau and a godforsaken desert between us. Still there was that incident of Harsha's succesor defeated by Chinese-Tibetan armies and hauled away in chains to Chang'an. Now since that problem has been solved, at advantage China, why not take the next logical step?

JM2c

[SSridhar]

Japan wants to change its textbooks to introduce more nationalism - Martin Fackler, The Hindu

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s conservative government has begun to pursue a more openly nationalist agenda on an issue that critics fear will push the country farther from its postwar pacifism: adding a more patriotic tone to Japan’s school textbooks.

The proposed textbook revisions have drawn less outcry abroad than Mr. Abe’s visit Thursday to a shrine that honours war dead, including war criminals from World War II. However, although Mr. Abe’s supporters argue that changes are needed to teach children more patriotism, liberals warn that they could undercut an anti-war message that they say has helped keep Japan peaceful for decades. {It was not the ati-war message that kept Japan peaceful all these decades. It was American protection plus the time it took China to emerge so powerful. Now, both conditions are reversing. Japan cannot depend upon a dwindling US for ever. China has become quite muscular and has begun to challenge Japan vigorously. It is the most prudent step for Japan to rise to the occasion all by itself. It has got to do everything within its power to ward off the China danger}

“Prime Minister Abe is feeling the heat from his political base, which feels betrayed that he has not pursued a more strongly right-wing agenda,” {Ahaa. . .whoever says that Abe is extreme rght-wing ? There are more extreme right-wingers for whom Abe is not doing enough !} said Nobuyoshi Takashima, a professor emeritus at the University of the Ryukyus in Okinawa who has studied the politics of textbooks. “Classrooms are one place where he can appease ultraconservatives by taking a more firmly nationalist stance.”

Mr. Abe and the nationalists have long argued that changes in the education system are crucial to restoring the country’s sense of self, eroded over decades when children were taught what they call an overly negative view of Japan’s wartime behaviour.

The latest efforts for change started slowly but have picked up speed in recent weeks.

In October, Mr. Abe’s Education Minister ordered the school board in Taketomi to use a conservative textbook that it had rejected, the first time the national government has issued such a demand. In November, the Education Ministry proposed new textbook screening standards, considered likely to be adopted, that would require the inclusion of nationalist views of World War II-era history.

This month, a government-appointed committee suggested a change that would bring politics more directly into education: putting Mayors in charge of their local school districts, a move that opponents say would increase political interference in textbook screening. And just days ago, an advisory committee to the Education Ministry suggested hardening the proposed new standards by requiring that textbooks that do not nurture patriotism be rejected.

The moves come at a time when China is asserting its growing strength, directly challenging Japanese territorial claims and its standing as a regional power. The proposed educational changes are the latest that nationalists in both countries have pushed and that some fear will, over time, harden views and deepen tensions between Asia’s two strongest countries. {Oh, Japan is just catching up with China}

The new screening standards proposed by the Education Minister, Hakubun Shimomura, a longtime advocate for teaching patriotism, require that elementary, junior high and high school textbooks give a “balanced picture” of disputed historical facts.

In an interview, ministry officials said that in practice this would require that textbooks include viewpoints of nationalist scholars on two highly contested historical issues. One is the death toll of the 1937 massacre in Nanjing of Chinese civilians by Japanese soldiers that the Chinese government says stands at 300,000, a figure many Japanese scholars see as grossly exaggerated.

Textbooks would also be required to state that there is still a dispute about whether the Japanese army played a direct role in forcing so-called comfort women from Korea and elsewhere to provide sex to its soldiers, even though most foreign historians say the brothels could not have been run without the military’s cooperation.

Educators worry that the vague wording of the standards could lead to more widespread changes in tone.

The suggested changes follow years of nationalist attempts — long backed by Mr. Abe — to whittle away at negative depictions of Japan’s wartime activities. Those who oppose textbook revisions say they are beginning to see the contours of a new strategy: forcing change at the local level that has sometimes failed at the national level.

Taketomi, a township of eight tiny islands that had been best known for its water-buffalo-drawn carts and placid coral lagoons, appears to have become ground zero for that battle.

The trouble began two years ago, when a newly elected conservative Mayor on the neighbouring island of Ishigaki appointed a new head of a local education district who selected a ninth-grade social studies textbook published by a right-wing company.

Taketomi, whose school system is part of that district, immediately rejected the book for what its teachers called overly revisionist content, including the portrayal of the anti-war Constitution as an alien document imposed by Allied occupiers who wanted to keep Japan weak.

Replacing the postwar Constitution has been a career-long goal of Mr. Abe’s.

Taketomi’s school board voted that its ninth-graders, who this year number 32, would keep using the current text, which praises the Constitution and the pacifist message that it enshrines.

At first, the national government ignored the quiet insurrection. But since Mr. Abe’s conservative Liberal Democratic Party returned to power last year, analysts say, members of his government have appeared increasingly determined to make an example of Taketomi in their campaign to roll back what they call an excessively left-leaning tilt in education.

So far, Taketomi has refused to bend to the central government’s demand that it follow the district’s orders. The town’s school superintendent, Anzo Kedamori, says the conservative book fails to teach children the hatred of war that his generation learned from bitter experience. During the Battle of Okinawa, hundreds of people in Taketomi perished when Japanese soldiers forced them to evacuate into malaria-ridden jungles.

“We have an obligation to teach the horrors of war to future generations,” said Mr. Kedamori (72), who remembers watching playmates die while shivering with malarial fever.

Ikuhosha, the publisher of the conservative textbook chosen by the district, provides only four per cent of the 2.5 million history and social studies books used nationally by grades seven to nine, according to the Education Ministry. By contrast, Tokyo Shoseki, the publisher of Taketomi’s anti-war textbook, prints more than half of the school books used nationwide.

“The conservatives want to use Taketomi as a manual for imposing Ikuhosha textbooks on other districts,” said Toshio Ohama, a former head of the Okinawa prefectural teachers union.

Mr. Kedamori, Taketomi’s superintendent, said the town lacked the resources for a prolonged battle with the national government, but he vowed not to give in.

“Why can’t they leave us alone,” he said, “to teach the value of peace to our children?” — New York Times News Service

[devesh]

India needs to help collapse the post colonial order. And that can happen only with PRC being given free hand.

India needs to come to terms with PRC to give it a free hand to complete the work of 20th Century.

I completely agree with ramana. I would only add post-colonial and post-Cold War era. India has a tightrope walk. China recognizes the innermost Indian position too and is also making the best use of it. It is a Great Game of hide-and-seek that is being played in which it is difficult to say where any player is at any point of time. Schrodinger's Cat.

I am surprised by this. especially since both Ramana and Acharya ji's also seem to agree.

to me, the current version of China stands out in certain aspects:

1. compromise with West over several agendas, including EJ'ism.
2. hypocritical compromise with Jihad: trying to displace it within their own lands, but actively bolstering or diverting it into "enemy lands".

#1 is a threat to India. and it does not take a genius to figure out why.

#2 makes PRC an extremely dangerous entity for India. they will have absolutely no qualms in helping Islam "take care" of India. they have shown that they fear India's entry into CAR. their serious inroads into Kashmir over past 15 years are nothing but a preemptive move to keep India from ever reaching into the CAR and its environs. They are playing an offensive game of trying to push India out of even Kashmir; their collaboration with Islamists in Pak and KV prove this.

I'm not even remotely sure that China in its current form can be called a neutral entity vis-a-vis India, let alone a "friend".

[Prem]

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/31/world ... .html?_r=0
No Meeting With Leader of Japan, Chinese Say

BEIJING — China’s Foreign Ministry said Monday that Chinese leaders, angered over a visit last week by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan to a contentious war shrine in Tokyo, would not meet with Mr. Abe. A Foreign Ministry spokesman, Qin Gang, said at a regularly scheduled news conference in Beijing that Mr. Abe’s visit to the Yasakuni shrine, which pays tribute to some war criminals among the dead, was tantamount to honoring “fascists” and “the Nazis of Asia.” Mr. Qin’s statements were the strongest public remarks made by China against Mr. Abe.

Mr. Abe has been asking for high-level talks with China to discuss points of tension in East Asia. In recent years, the China-Japan relationship has worsened because of disputes over territory in the East China Sea. Most recently, Japan and other countries expressed surprise and anger over China’s efforts to expand its flight identification zone in the region. Japan has also encountered friction with South Korea, which, like China, expressed anger at Mr. Abe’s visit to the shrine. The visit was the first by a sitting head of government in Japan since Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi went there in 2006. That visit also stirred rage in the region. . “Since Abe stepped into power, he has made many mistakes in his relations with China, especially in his visit to the shrine where many Class A war criminals are worshiped,” Mr. Qin said. “They are the historic sinners of the Far East Military Tribunal. Their hands are stained with the blood of the people of victimized nations. They are fascists. They are the Nazis of Asia.”

[SSridhar]

China says Abe no longer welcome in China after Yasukuni visit - Japan Times

It is just a tactic by the Chinese to avoid talks on the border dispute. They have been doing this successfully with us for over sixty years now. After 19 rounds of meetings between Special representatives set up by Vajpayee & his Chinese counterpart, nothing substantial has happened. The Chinese even refuse to give India a map of where they think the boundary is.

China on Monday accused Japan’s prime minister of hypocrisy and said he would not be welcome in China after he visited a shrine honoring Japan’s war dead, the latest sign of worsening ties between the two nations.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang said that Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s visit to Yasukuni Shrine had seriously hurt relations between the countries and shut the door for dialogue between their leaders.

“Abe’s hypocrisy in his claims of prioritizing relations with China and hopes for dialogue with the Chinese leaders has been fully revealed,” Qin said at a regular briefing.

“The Chinese people do not welcome him. Now, Abe needs to admit his mistakes to the government and people of China, cut loose from the past and make a new start,” he said.

Abe’s shrine visit and China’s reaction escalated tensions already running high over a festering territorial dispute. Relations sank to a new low recently after China announced an air defense identification zone that covers a string of uninhabited East China Sea islands controlled by Japan but also claimed by China.

Tokyo has repeatedly called for dialogue to resolve the islands dispute. But Monday’s comments show how the shrine visit has added another reason for China to reject talks between President Xi Jinping and Abe on the issue. Xi and Abe had a five-minute exchange on the sidelines of the G-20 summit in Russia in September.

Beijing’s remarks add to the steady drumbeat of criticism that Beijing has kept up against Abe since the shrine visit last Thursday. China’s foreign minister summoned Japan’s ambassador to protest, while other spokespeople from the foreign service and the defense ministry issued scathing criticisms.

Japanese politicians’ visits to Yasukuni have long caused friction with China and both Koreas, because the 2.5 million war dead enshrined there include 14 class A war criminals from World War II — national leaders who were either executed or died in prison or during their trials. Japan colonized Korea and occupied parts of China, often brutally, before and during World War II.

“They are the people who masterminded, launched and carried out the war of aggression against China,” China’s Qin said of the Japanese war criminals. “Their hands are covered with the blood of the victimized peoples. They are fascists. They are the Nazis of Asia.” {Look who is talking of blood on their hands}


Abe has previously said criticism that visits to Yasukuni are an act of worshipping war criminals is based on a misunderstanding. He said he did not intend to hurt the Chinese and Korean people’s feelings and expressed conviction that Japan must never wage war again.

[SSridhar]

China Considers Revamping Military Regions - JT

China is considering reorganizing its seven military regions into five in a bid to respond more swiftly to a crisis, the Japanese daily Yomiuri Shimbun reported on Wednesday.

The news comes amid rising tensions over Beijing’s territorial claims in the region, with China and Japan squaring off over a chain of uninhabited islands in the East China Sea.

Each of the new military regions will create a joint operations command that controls the army, navy and air force as well as a strategic missile unit, the major daily said citing senior Chinese military officials and other sources.

The planned revamp would mark a shift from the current defense-oriented military that relies mainly on the army to one that ensures more mobile and integrated management of the army, navy, air force and strategic missile units, Yomiuri said.

“It is a proactive measure with eyes on counteracting the Japan-U.S. alliance,” the daily quoted one of the officials as saying.

Tokyo and Beijing are locked in a simmering territorial row over Tokyo-controlled Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea which China also claims and calls the Diaoyus.

The United States, while insisting it does not take sides on sovereignty disputes, has said that the islands are under Tokyo’s management and so come under a security treaty in which it is required to defend officially pacifist Japan against attack.

Under the proposed military structure China aims to strengthen its attack capability to secure air and naval superiority in the South China Sea and the East China Sea, the daily said.

The newspaper also reported that Japan plans to deploy its first “Global Hawk” unmanned surveillance planes at an airbase in Misawa, on the northern tip of Japan’s main Honshu Island, adjacent to a U.S. airbase where the same type of aircraft will be based later this year.

Japan’s defence ministry plans to deploy three Global Hawk drones between April 2015 and March 2016, Yomiuri said.

Misawa is located about 2,300 km north of the Senkakus, which Chinese coastguard ships have frequently approached, sometimes moving into territorial waters, since Tokyo nationalised some of the islands in September 2012.

Equipped with sophisticated sensors and radars, the Global Hawk drone is capable of flying more than 30 hours non-stop and detecting the movements of vessels, aircraft and missiles within a radius of 500 km from an altitude of 18,000 meters.

It does not have attack capability.

The defense ministry and the U.S. air force will jointly maintain the drones to ensure they operate effectively, the report said.

In addition, information collected by the Global Hawk will be shared and jointly analyzed, Yomiuri said.

[member_19686]

A Chinese Man Had To Be Rescued By Japan After Trying To Land A Hot-Air Balloon On Disputed Islands
AGENCE FRANCE PRESSE
JAN. 1, 2014, 11:48 PM

A Chinese man was rescued by the Japan Coast Guard after a failed attempt to land a hot-air balloon on islands at the centre of a bitter dispute between Tokyo and Beijing, a Japanese official said Thursday.

The 35-year-old took off from Fujian province on Wednesday morning, aiming to land on one of the Tokyo-controlled islands, known as the Senkakus in Japanese and Diaoyus in Chinese, the coastguard official said.

But he sent a rescue request when he got into trouble near the islands in the East China Sea hours later, the official said.

A Japanese rescue helicopter found the balloon 22 kilometres (14 miles) south of the islands and rescued the man, who was unhurt, the official said. He was handed over to a Chinese patrol ship outside territorial waters.

Chinese and Taiwanese activists have tried to land on the islands by ship several times but been blocked by the Japanese coastguard.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/Chinese Man Rescued After Attempt To Land On Disputed Island#ixzz2pFzn2A5q

Brahma Chellaney @Chellaney 10h
At a time when China is finding ways to fund academic research, including in the US and India, a good move in Canada: http://goo.gl/eoAEtG

Universities and colleges urged to end ties with Confucius Institutes

(December 17, 2013) The Canadian Association of University Teachers is calling on universities and colleges to sever their ties with institutes subsidized and supervised by the authoritarian government of China.
At a meeting of the CAUT Council earlier this month, delegates passed a resolution calling on universities and colleges in Canada which currently host Confucius Institutes on their campuses to cease doing so, and those contemplating such arrangements to pursue them no further.
“In agreeing to host Confucius Institutes, Canadian universities and colleges are compromising their own integrity by allowing the Chinese Language Culture International to have a voice in a number of academic matters, such as curriculum, texts, and topics of class discussion," said CAUT executive director James Turk. "Such interference is a fundamental violation of academic freedom."
Confucius Institutes are academic units providing instruction in Chinese language and culture. Unlike the Goethe Institut, the British Council and the Alliance Française, Confucius Institutes are most often physically situated on campuses and provide accredited courses.
Turk noted that the University of Manitoba rejected hosting a Confucius Institute out of concerns over political censorship, and McMaster University ended its agreement with the Confucius Institute earlier this year following a human rights complaint by an instructor who alleged discriminatory hiring practices against members of Falun Gong.
“Simply put, Confucius Institutes are owned and operated by an authoritarian government and beholden to its politics,” Turk stated.
Canadian universities and colleges that currently host Confucius Institutes include: British Columbia Institute of Technology, Brock University, Carleton University, Dawson College, University of Regina, University of Saskatchewan, Seneca College, University of Sherbrooke, St. Mary’s University, and the University of Waterloo.
- See more at: http://www.caut.ca/news/2013/12/17/univ ... pPBbU.dpuf

[ramana]

The 1962 debacle was a tactical victory for China and a strategic victory for the world.
Think it over.

[chanakyaa]

The following isn't directly related to Chinese threat..but I found it interesting. Mods feel free to move if not appropriate.

Chinese icebreaker ship that helped rescue the 52 Australian global warming researchers from being trapped in Antarctic ice has found itself stuck in heavy ice.

Video and story here
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/sns- ... 0942.story

Looks like the ice breaker was part China's 30th voyage to the Antarctic...

....The Chinese vessel departed from Shanghai in November for its latest mission, China’s 30th voyage to Antarctica, with more than two dozen construction workers on board. In a major expansion of China’s presence in the region, the government is funding the construction of its fourth base on the continent. The main building of the new station will be shaped like a Chinese lantern....

More on the related story here..

As China Goes Exploring, Antarctica Becomes Another Frontier
http://www.businessweek.com/articles/20 ... r-frontier

[KrishnaK]

RR, Threat from PRC is different one than that from US.
India needs to help collapse the post colonial order. And that can happen only with PRC being given free hand.
India needs to come to terms with PRC to give it a free hand to complete the work of 20th Century.

PRC will become the best friend of India. PRC will not acknowledge it directly but will help in bringing a global change.
PRC will help India in ways it may never be imagined.

The US is no threat and the PRC no friend.

[svinayak]

Threat from PRC is different one than that from US.
India needs to help collapse the post colonial order. And that can happen only with PRC being given free hand.
India needs to come to terms with PRC to give it a free hand to complete the work of 20th Century.
PRC will become the best friend of India. PRC will not acknowledge it directly but will help in bringing a global change.
PRC will help India in ways it may never be imagined.
The US is no threat and the PRC no friend.

PRC's lucky # is 9. Any significant date or data related to PRC is 9. 30 years is small change, 60 years is big change, that's how we count using ancient Chinese calender. And its Five Element's qi is wood (east), Mao Zedong literally Mao water east. In 1919, the Chinese people suffered. In 1949, the Chinese people stood up. In 1979, the Chinese people becoming rich. In 2009, the Chinese people took off. In 2039, the Chinese people is peaceful and content.


In 䨺龘 焱轟

China didn't become rich by either communism nor capitalism using Western dualism, but with Chinese Characteristics to use flexible tools for its own shoe size, third option: middle Tao. China needs the West, the West needs China. Good timing is not as good as geographical advantage, geographical advantage is not as good as human harmony. The old world of emphasizing competition, conflict, and war is obsolete. The new world is surely to emphasize peace, cooperation, and mutual benefit., world harmony.

[Christopher Sidor]

Harmony??

How can one have harmony when one entity occupies and claims territories which are not theirs?

[KrishnaK]

PRC's lucky # is 9. Any significant date or data related to PRC is 9. 30 years is small change, 60 years is big change, that's how we count using ancient Chinese calender. And its Five Element's qi is wood (east), Mao Zedong literally Mao water east. In 1919, the Chinese people suffered. In 1949, the Chinese people stood up. In 1979, the Chinese people becoming rich. In 2009, the Chinese people took off. In 2039, the Chinese people is peaceful and content.

In 䨺龘 焱轟

China didn't become rich by either communism nor capitalism using Western dualism, but with Chinese Characteristics to use flexible tools for its own shoe size, third option: middle Tao. China needs the West, the West needs China. Good timing is not as good as geographical advantage, geographical advantage is not as good as human harmony. The old world of emphasizing competition, conflict, and war is obsolete. The new world is surely to emphasize peace, cooperation, and mutual benefit., world harmony.

Acharyaji, it is my belief that a country that has a sustained narrative of grievance will have a tough time being peaceful or content even after it is prosperous. For that to happen, the Chinese victim trip has to called out as bullshit by it's own people. I haven't yet drawn out an astrological chart for China, so can't predict if and when that'll come about to be, but it certainly won't be the CPC that ushers that era in.

[johneeG]

The US is no threat and the PRC no friend.

Amirkhan is THE threat. So far, Amirkhan is joined at hip to all of the threats that dhesh faces. Bakis(or jihadhis in general), PRC, ...etc are all tied to amirkhan at the hip. Without wink and nod help from the amirkhan, these others wouldn't have risen in the first place.

Now, chins seem to want to use amirkhans in short term and eventually rise to a level where they can challenge amirkhan(and its euro acolytes). amirkhan seems to want to use chin to prolong its fall of empire. They are frenmies.

Similarly, jihadhis want to use amirkhan to do their bidding and finally challenge amirkhan. And amirkhan wants to use jihadhis to keep all others destabilized to prolong the pax amirkhana. So, frenmies again.

But, without the support of amirkhan, these powers are nothing. So, these threats are propped up by amirkhan.

----
Japanese seem to have a strong martial culture(a culture that venerates martial arts and glorifies warfare). So, its present pacifist avatar is deviation which has been foisted on it after WW2 defeat. At some point, japan will come out of this and return to its real nature. In a way, this is similar to Bhaarath being a pacifist and 'secular' country too.

[SSridhar]

Deepening Mutual Trust - Wei Wei, The Hindu

The year 2013 is a harvest year for Sino-Indian Strategic Cooperative Partnership, which witnessed great progress in friendship and fruitful cooperation. Three aspects are featured in a whole year of our relationship.

First, frequent and close high-level interactions between China and India with continually strengthened strategic trust with each other. Chinese President Xi Jinping met twice with Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh during the Durban BRICS Summit and the G20 St. Petersburg Summit to outline a grand blueprint for future development of China-India relations; Chinese Premier Li Keqiang and Dr. Singh exchanged visits within one year after a lapse of nearly 60 years, during which joint statements were issued and more then 10 agreements reached. The visits resulted in comprehensive plans of pragmatic cooperation in various fields between China and India. Moreover, the 16th Special Representatives’ Meeting for the China-India Boundary Question and the 5th China-India Strategic Dialogue were respectively held to enhance mutual communication and understanding between our two sides.{And, last but not the least, very unpleasant incidents happened in the Ladakh sector of the LAC when Chinese PLA repeatedly intruded and stayed put on Indian territory}

Converging interests

Second, converging interests deepened between China and India with continually expanded cultural exchanges. Mechanisms like the China-India Strategic Economic Dialogue, Financial Dialogue, Joint Economic Group are becoming more effective while our cooperation has spread from trade in goods and project contracting to trade in service, etc. The two sides also reached consensus in principle to set up Chinese industrial parks in India, carry out railway cooperation and strengthen investment cooperation in order to find effective measures for balanced bilateral trade. The just-concluded first joint working group meeting of the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar (BCIM) Economic Corridor formally established the cooperation mechanism among the four countries which we believe will play an important role in the integration of interests for China and India, and for the region at large. It is also conducive to an early realisation of balanced trade between China and India {which is continuing to be stymied by the Chinese intransigence in sectors such as pharmaceuticals and IT services} and common prosperity in the region. China-India cultural exchanges continue to deepen with more and more people favouring each other’s country as their tourist destination. The number of tourists between our two countries increased steadily in 2013 and is expected to exceed 7.5 lakh. The two countries also signed three pairs of sister city agreements, held the first China-India Media Forum and exchanged visits of 100-youth delegations.

Foreign affairs

Third, increased collaboration in international affairs between China and India with proper handling of divergences. China and India closely coordinated and cooperated in multilateral fora including G20 and BRICS and jointly tackled global challenges. Both sides also maintained good communication and cooperation in a number of international and regional hot spots and, as a result, our bilateral relationship has been enhanced and important contributions have been done to peace and the development of the world. On the China-India border issue, we signed the Border Defence Cooperation Agreement which reaffirmed the principle that we will not let local differences get in the way of the overall development of our bilateral relationship. {This is the Chinese tactic, by incrementally occupying and claiming Indian territory under the banner of 'local differences' while not allowing India to retaliate in any other fashion} Both sides are more confident of the established way of focussing on mutual benefit and common development while addressing each other’s concerns and properly handling differences.

Significance of 2014

2014 is “the Year of Friendly Exchanges” between China and India. It is also the 60th anniversary of the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence (Panchsheel) {Oh, we do not want to go anywhere near that or the New Panchsheel that your President is talking about. India must be really foolish to believe in this drama once again} . The two countries will host a variety of activities. I believe China-India relations will have a promising and brilliant prospect in the year. From the perspective of development of bilateral relations, I think we should focus our efforts on the following aspects.

The first is to further deepen mutual trust {Explain to us what China proposes to do for the same} and expand a mutually beneficial and pragmatic partnership. The international situation is undergoing profound changes while the global economy is facing a depth adjustment. Against this backdrop, China and India should deepen mutual trust in a spirit of treating each other with sincerity as well as expand our pragmatic cooperation in political, economic, military, cultural and other fields with a broader vision and increasing efforts.

Economic thrust

The second is to further promote the complementarities and build a stable and prosperous neighbouring community of common destiny. The prior task for both China and India is to develop the economy and improve people’s living standard. Both sides should explore complementary cooperation in the major fields of infrastructure, construction, manufacturing, service, IT, telecommunication, investment, pharmaceutical and industrial parks. Both China and India need a favourable external environment especially the periphery. Both should play a leading role in regional economic integration for the common development of neighbouring countries and promote connectivity, mutual benefit and common prosperity in the region.

The third is to further strengthen coordination and cooperation in regional and international issues. China-India relations should progress in accordance with the international general trend which requires closer cooperation of the two sides on international and regional affairs, as well as multilateral issues. We should also actively take part in the reform of the international economic governance system and work jointly to empower developing countries in the making of international rules in order to safeguard our common interests, and thus push for the establishment of an international relationship based on equality and mutual trust, inclusiveness and mutual learning, as well as cooperation and win-win outcomes.

The Third Plenum of the 18th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party opened up a new historic stage of China’s reform and development, which not only will shape a new China, but also usher in new opportunities of cooperation between China and the rest of the world. I believe that China-India relations will continue to open up new space for development and upgrade to a higher level in the new year.

(Wei Wei is China’s Ambassador to India.)

[SSridhar]

Chinese troops enter Ladakh every 14 days
This is why China desperately wanted BDCA so that this increased frequency does not cause flare-ups.

[Aditya_V]

We seem to be in 1959-62 mode of denial again. and trying to justify Chinese deeds like the \London based Krishna Menon.

[member_19686]

China’s anti-Kim campaign
BY BRAHMA CHELLANEY

China’s autocrats, by upending the status quo in the East and South China Seas and the Himalayas, are waging an undeclared war against multiple neighboring countries at once. Their next target is likely to be fellow communist state North Korea, now an estranged ally.

China’s “blood relations” with North Korea — acclaimed in the past to be as close as “lips and teeth” — have soured badly. A widening schism between China’s assertive, nationalistic president, Xi Jinping, and North Korea’s defiant young dictator, Kim Jong Un, determined to chart an independent course, has thrown the bilateral relationship into a tailspin.

North Korea has become the target of a Chinese campaign of disinformation after it executed China’s most-valued friend in its power hierarchy, Jang Song Thaek, a four-star general who was Kim’s uncle by marriage. The Chinese campaign seeks to portray Kim as a wickedly eccentric and bloodthirsty megalomaniac.

Jang, China’s main link to the Stalinist regime in Pyongyang, was convicted and executed Dec. 12 for treason, including plotting a coup and underselling national resources (such as coal, land and precious metals) to a “foreign country” — a reference to China. This has infuriated Xi and many others in China, with one general warning that North Korea was slipping out of the Chinese sphere of influence and government mouthpieces calling for a tough new approach. China’s online censors have conspicuously overlooked social media’s increasing vilification of Kim.

Immediately after the execution, a small but sensationalist Hong Kong newspaper aligned with the Chinese Communist Party reported that Kim and other senior leaders watched as Jang and five associates were stripped naked, thrown into a cage, and devoured by 120 hungry dogs. The paper, Wen Wei Po, cited not a single source for its claim, which harked back to the ancient Roman tradition of throwing convicts to dogs, lions or other animals.

Yet days later, the outlandish claim was published in the Straits Times, the main newspaper in Singapore, a city-state with no press freedom. The Dec. 24 Straits Times’ report was authored by a former Wen Wei Po reporter who was once jailed in China for allegedly spying for Taiwan. By Jan. 3, the speculative story had been picked up by media across the world.

Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt tweeted Jan. 3, “Well, the truly interesting thing is that the story seems to be put out by the authorities in Beijing.” The death-by-ravenous-dog tale from the country famous for its “dog meat festivals” was a reminder that China uses the Hong Kong-Singapore route for disinformation. Eating dog meat is an ancient custom in China. Indeed, in some regions there, eating dog meat on the summer solstice is believed to help ward off evil spirits and disease.

Demonizing the reclusive and recalcitrant North Korea comes easily to many in the world, given its government’s opaque inner-workings and how little hard information flows out of that hermetic nation. Many outsiders are ready to believe any story about it, especially because there is no way to disprove it.

The international media, in any event, loves stories about dictators, however poorly sourced and farfetched they may be.

In this case, the North Korean regime itself lent a “dog” angle by publicly branding Jang as “worse than a dog.” Still, it is significant that the unverified execution-by-dog story was not lapped up by the media in South Korea, where journalists track developments in North Korea closely with access to intelligence sources and defectors.

The story bore distinctly Chinese characteristics, including attention to precise numbers — 120 dogs, starved for five days, were supposedly unleashed in an action supervised by 300 officials.

Numerical symbolism has always been important in China, extending even to witch hunts — for example, the “Let a Hundred Flowers Bloom” campaign in the 1950s.

China’s warriors of disinformation betrayed uncanny traits in counting both the number of hounds who ate up Jang and the number of officials who supervised the “quan jue,” or execution by dogs. The “120 dogs ate up Jang” story was a dead giveaway.

Evidence thus far points to Jang’s execution by North Korea’s normal practice — a firing squad. What is remarkable is that the doggy disinformation was widely disseminated by a country whose political system is no different than North Korea’s. China indeed has well-oiled, sophisticated repression and propaganda machines that, unlike North Korea’s, have kept pace with technological advances.

In truth, China has learned some of its disinformation tricks from the United States, which has a penchant to demonize dictators it dumps after using them.

China’s faltering ties with North Korea, however, make it stand out as a lonely rising power with no real allies, in stark contrast to the U.S., which boasts 27 military allies and a number of other strategic partners. There are no good options for Beijing on North Korea, especially after Jang’s execution and Kim’s purge of some other purportedly pro-China elements.

Kim has presented himself as a tough leader who will not allow China to treat North Korea as a vassal state. Kim Il Sung, the founder of the state, paid 37 official visits to China, and his son and successor, Kim Jong Il, went nine times. But Kim Jong Un has not been to China even once since he came to power after the death of his father, Kim Jong Il, in December 2011.

Thumbing his nose at Xi’s entreaties for restraint, he successfully fired a rocket to place a satellite in orbit in late 2012 and carried out his country’s third nuclear test in February 2013. His open defiance prompted China to endorse new United Nations Security Council sanctions against North Korea, further fraying the bilateral relationship.

China’s policy dilemma is compounded by the fact that it has little interest in the collapse of the Kim family’s rule because that could unravel the North Korean state and create a reunified and resurgent Korea allied with the U.S. China has territorial and resource disputes with North Korea that a reunified Korea will inherit. The territorial disputes center on Chonji, the crater lake on Mount Paektu — where the Sino-Korean boundary has not been settled — and certain islands in the Yalu and the Tumen, both border rivers.

Indeed, signaling that its present border with North Korea may not be final for it, China has made a revisionist historical claim that the ancient kingdom of Koguryo — founded in the Tongge River basin of northern Korea — was Chinese and not Korean. As a December 2012 U.S. Senate report warned, China “may be seeking to lay the groundwork for possible future territorial claims on the Korean Peninsula.”

Whereas Washington’s policy on North Korea focuses narrowly on its denuclearization, Beijing seeks geopolitical influence and continued access to the vast reserves of iron ore, magnesite, copper and other minerals there. It also wants to block Russia and Japan from making strategic inroads into the North. It remains wedded to a strategy to prevent South Korea from absorbing the North.

The Kim regime, for its part, seeks normalized relations with the U.S. so as to keep away from depending excessively on China. It thus chafes at the Obama administration’s use of Beijing as a diplomatic go-between.

Make no mistake: The China-North Korea rift holds far-reaching implications for regional geopolitics. U.S.’s North Korean policy must reassess its dubious reliance on Beijing as an intermediary and find ways to reengage Pyongyang directly — an imperative that also extends to policymakers in Tokyo and Seoul.

Brahma Chellaney is a geostrategist and the author, most recently, of “Water, Peace, and War” (Oxford University Press, 2014).

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/201 ... szee_RDv7O

[Prem]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25680684
Japan and China criticise each other's Africa policies
( While Indian Leaders Sleep)

China and Japan are criticising each other's policies in Africa as each country pledges more money for the continent.Japan has suggested China is buying off African leaders with lavish gifts. Meanwhile China accuses Japan of courting African support for a place on the United National Security Council.Japan's leader Shinzo Abe is touring three nations in Africa, the first trip there by a Japanese prime minister for eight years.Mr Abe is expected to pledge more than $14bn in aid and trade deals during his trip to Ethiopia, Ivory Coast and Mozambique. China has hailed Africa a "golden ground" for foreign investment and has pledged to double its aid to the continent to $20bn a year.Mr Abe's spokesman Tomohiko Taniguchi admits Japan is lagging behind China in terms of investment in Africa.
But he told the BBC that "countries like Japan, Britain and France cannot provide African leaders with beautiful houses or beautiful ministerial buildings".The Chinese often pay for public buildings, including the African Union headquarters in Ethiopia, where Mr Abe is due to speak on Tuesday.Mr Taniguchi said: "Japan's aid policy is to really aid the human capital of Africa." He said many African leaders believed that through strong links with Japan they could obtain industrial expertise and know-how.China insists its aid and co-operation with Africa are completely selfless.The Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi told the Hong Kong newspaper Ming Pao that China does not approve of "certain countries" which try to compete with others for their own interests and offer aid to Africa out of purely political motives.This appears to be a reference to Japan's attempts to win the votes of African leaders in support of its bid to be a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, something China opposes.

[Prem]

China faces barriers in the Indian Ocean
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/CHIN-02-100114.html

Indeed, there is no other place where the bedrock concerns of theUnited States, India, China, Japan, and Australia all converge, making the Indian Ocean strategically integral to the balance of power in the Western Pacific. In particular, the East Indian Ocean is a major building block in China's grand project to transform itself into a great world power, and it is already playing a distinct role in China's development as both a naval and as a continental power. The map below illustrates Beijing's sense of what is required to secure the country's naval frontier and its "sea lines of communication" to the West. But the map is also instructive because it highlights the fact that coastal facilities are also envisioned by China as ways of aiding inland development by opening up regions of the country previously cut off from access to the sea. This interest is well-placed. The Indian Ocean is now the world's busiest trade route. More than 80% of the world's seaborne trade in oil (equivalent to about one-fifth of global energy supply) - oil which fuels the economies of Southeast Asia, South Korea, Japan, and China - transits it. In particular, some 40% of the world's seaborne oil trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, with almost all of that oil then traveling across the Indian Ocean, thence through the Strait of Malacca. Even if these massive transcontinental projects proceed as planned, petroleum delivered by sea will become even more important than it is today as China-bound petroleum passes through the Strait of Hormuz in ever-growing quantities. These Mid-East, Africa to China connections are well-expressed in monetary terms. From negligible levels in the 1990s, trade between China and the Middle East will rise to more than US$500 billion by 2020. China is now a major investor in Africa and about a million Chinese nationals live and work there and, for the past decade, China's trade with Africa has been growing at more than 20% per annum.
But the Indian Ocean-Pacific Ocean corridor is about more than just energy. A new kind of "triangular trade" has sprung up that links India, the Middle East, and the Asia-Pacific. India's "Look East" policy has already produced trade between iteself and the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations of about US$70 billion and turnover is expected to reach US$100 billion by 2015. Even as the strategic competition between India and China intensifies, China has become India's largest trading partner, at about $75 billion per annum.
Overall, the trade routes connecting the Middle East, South Asia, and the Asia-Pacific have already made of the Indian Ocean one vast "choke point". Accordingly, China cannot move closer to actual strategic autonomy if it gains ascendancy in the South China Sea while the Indian Ocean still remains beyond the reach of its naval capabilities. Understanding China's sense of its future not only as a maritime power but also as a naval power requires that we broaden even this angle of vision. In the first place, the strategic importance of the East Indian Ocean as a point entree - a backdoor, if you will - into China needs to be appreciated once again.
The wartime experience of the RoC showed that, if China's "backdoors" could be kept open, a regime based deep inside the country could be kept alive - even if an enemy had managed to occupy China's coastal ports. The new People's Republic of China (PRC) learned lessons from this experience. Because the maritime power of the United States could wreak enormous havoc on the new regime if ever the American government so decided, Mao's early PRC was immediately interested in establishing its strategic presence in regions where the RoC had also sought positions.

Thus, whatever the new ideological gloss PRC gave to its own "revolutionary" outreach into Southeast Asia, it had a venerable strategic genealogy. It remained a sensitive area. In l971, for example, a crisis occasioned by the breakup of East from West Pakistan on the Indian subcontinent almost immediately engaged the interests of major powers - the then-USSR, India, US, and the United States. Today, the USSR has disappeared, but India, the PRC, Japan, Indonesia, and the United States all have important interests that converge in the East Indian Ocean. We should therefore expect jostling and bumping of the sort that is now commonplace in the waters farther east. The Indian Ocean is also implicated in China's future in another important, though less visible, way. Earlier, we alluded to the China's new March West which is, in fact, a three-pronged advance. The first route pushes due west from Chinese-ruled Central Asia, that is, Xinjiang, to the energy-rich lands of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and the shores of the Caspian. A second route moves west-by-southwest via Pakistan and also Afghanistan to Balochistan's borders with Iran and the threshold waters of the Persian Gulf. But it is the third route that is highly relevant to our discussion here. This route begins in Yunnan province, moves by rail and by highway further into Southeast Asia and is following a modernized version of the old south-westerly branch of the Silk Road, also into Bangladesh and then toward northeast India and across into Persia. Yunnan, which also borders Tibet, may yet emerge as the most important strategic pivot of this effort. Yunnan, and other heartland provinces in China which still lag behind the more prosperous coastal regions, wish to assert themselves directly into the emerging Indo-Pacific economic corridor. Southeast Asia is a major target of opportunity, for it is part of a natural economic region - the Greater Mekong Sub-Region (a term coined by the Asian Development Bank.) The sub-region includes Yunnan province, the Guangxi Autonomous Region, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar. As this area toward the southwest beckons, parts of land-locked China are coming increasingly to see their economic future as diverging from that of the coastal provinces. In an inspection tour of Yunnan in July, 2009, then Chinese president Hu Jintao urged the Yunnan provincial government to take the lead in deepening economic cooperation with the Greater Mekong Sub-region. As a result, Yunnan is now China's main economic bridge into South and Southeast Asia and is starting to playing a larger political there, not least in promoting a blizzard of coordination and cooperation agreements that cuts across all major economic sectors. For strategically significant parts of west and southwest China which have begun to look outward in a new and different direction, the Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea now loom at least as large as does the South China Sea for other parts of the country. Seen from this larger perspective, the naval and maritime competition in the East and South China Seas cannot help but move west of the Straits of Malacca into what is still, militarily, relatively unoccupied space. Though the interests of many nations converge there, the Indian Ocean is still comparatively uncontested and the waters there are unburdened by old animosities of the sort one finds east of Malacca or by the complexity of overlapping exclusive economic zones. The Indian Ocean is thus a space where small advantages can be leveraged to great advantage. Recent PRC "assertiveness" has alarmed and antagonized Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Vietnam - and of course the United States - making the Indian Ocean more attractive as a point of counter-pressure, even as the economic attractiveness of the region to the China's southwest will, at the same time, help to strengthen the centrifugal forces inside the country.
So far as the United States is concerned, co-operation with partners like India and treaty allies such as Australia is, compared to the Pacific proper, relatively uncomplicated. Indeed, such cooperation fits naturally into the strategic traditions of both India and Australia, where the situation in the Indian Ocean has long been of practical, not merely theoretical, concern. The growth in the PRC's naval power is now another of those practical concerns but, if China's naval power is in fact to prove world transforming, it will somehow have to figure out a way to reach from the South China Sea far to the west of Malacca and all the way to the core Middle East. China's costs of doing that will rise as it attempts to reach across the Indian Ocean, a region where it has no real allies and no partners, save for an increasingly dysfunctional Pakistan, but a region where the United States has both.

[rajrang]

China is able to threaten the S China Sea and the Senkakus, because of the relative proximity of these regions to mainland China and Hainan, thus China's military power located onshore (such as missiles, shore based aircraft, smaller naval ships) can influence the outcome. The Indian Ocean is further away. The only way China can challenge the US Navy in the Indian Ocean is by having several carrier groups operating far from home bases and this is more 10 years away.

A confrontation that could rival the cold war in scope could emerge between a militarily rising China versus Japan/US/ SE Asia/Australia/S Korea. Note the combined population of these countries exceeds 1 billion (and is growing) and is comparable to China's 1.3 billion. So, China has every reason to fear such an alliance because their primary reason for super power status pivots on its large population. If (an economically fast growing) India were to weigh in on the side of the US, then from the (crucial) population standpoint, China's super power goals will be unrealized.

However, it is likely that both India and Russia will be neutral due largely to the military pressure that the PLA can exert along the land borders with these two countries. (India has memories of 1962 and Russia of Ghengiz Khan.) Even though Russia has powerful nuclear forces, such forces cannot be used for border insults like Depsang or senkakus at which the Chinese are experts. If there was a Nobel prize for dispensing insults, China would win it every year.

In retrospect, perhaps it was to ensure this neutrality, that President Xi visited Russia and Premier Li visited India as soon as the new leadership came to power in China. They were preparing for the looming (according to their calculations) confrontation with Japan and the US. To make sure this was understood by India's current leaders (who do not seem to have geopolitical savvy), China staged the Depsang incident to let India's leaders know who is the boss in the Himalayas. China was not requesting India's neutrality but demanding it. Meanwhile, China's goal would be to secure their ocean front from the US Navy.

Thus, one explanation for China strengthening infrastructure in Tibet (the Q - Lhasa railway) and along the Indian border, as well as leaving the border question with India unsettled would be to ensure Indian neutrality while China takes on Japan and the US. If India dares to join the US and Japan, there will be retribution in the Himalayas.

Extending this thought further, China will never want to close a border deal with India even for generations to come, because this way they can ensure India's neutrality vis-a-vis China in world affairs. Perhaps in the future a savvy Indian PM might break this impasse. To strengthen his hands, India should continue to build up its military forces on land, sea and air. Until then, Indian leaders have no choice but to pretend that they are asleep.

[member_19686]

^^

The Great Khan was a Mongol not Han. Mongols conquered both China & Russia.

Russian empire conquered large parts of Manchu empire in the 19th century without much of a fight.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amur_Annexation

[SSridhar]

Jpan vows defence - The Hindu

Japan’s Defence Minister vowed on Sunday to defend the country’s territory as three Chinese government ships entered disputed waters off Tokyo-controlled islands in the East China Sea, the first such incident this year.

The Chinese coastguard vessels sailed into the 12-nautical-mile territorial waters at about 8:30 am off one of the Senkaku islands, which China also claims and calls the Diaoyus, Japan’s coastguard said. They left less than two hours later.

“We can never overlook repeated incursions into territorial waters,” Japanese Defence Minister Itsunori Onodera told reporters.

“We need to make diplomatic efforts on one hand. We also want to firmly defend our country’s territorial sea and land with the Self-Defence Forces cooperating with the Coast Guard,” he added.

Chinese state-owned ships and aircraft have approached the Senkakus on and off to demonstrate Beijing’s territorial claims. — AFP

[sanjaykumar]

Much as I find Japanese interesting, these statements are getting tiresome. They betray Japan's helplessness. Consider those islands lost.

[Christopher Sidor]

Nope the islands are not lost. They would be lost once we see PRC's or RoC's flag flying on them. That has not yet happened. It may not happen in this decade. Post this decade is a different story.

[chanakyaa]

Reports: China plans to seize Pag-Asa Island this year

http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2014/ ... sland-year

MANILA, Philippines - A Chinese news network has reported that China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) is planning to seize the contested Pag-Asa Island in the Spratlys Group of Islands this year in what can be an explosive military confrontation......

and then

DFA not aware of China plan to seize Pag-asa Island
http://globalnation.inquirer.net/96527/ ... asa-island

[Prem]

http://www.forbes.com/sites/stephenharn ... el-gurtov/
A Skeptic's View Of U.S.-China-Japan Relations: Q & A With Dr. Mel Gurtov

Whither Japan Q: How do you assess the Obama administration’s “pivot” or “rebalancing” to Asia policy in terms of U.S. interests?
Gurtov A: Although the “pivot” may provide security reassurance to U.S. allies such as the Philippines, it does so at the expense of a larger (to my mind) interest in a constructive partnership with China. The “pivot” supports those in China who argue that the U.S. is once again trying to contain China, and therefore reviving what the Chinese call “Cold War thinking.” Strengthening U.S. naval and air positions in East Asia as well as security commitments to Japan, South Korea, and others may seem innocent to some. But in fact the U.S. military already has overwhelming strength in Asia relative to China, and China is in no position to catch up. Why provide arguments for accelerated Chinese military modernization while weakening the U.S. appeal for China’s support on North Korea, Iran, and climate change

Whither Japan Q: Is the U.S.-Japan alliance compatible with constructive “new type” of U.S.-China relationship? Are expanded Japanese military operations–like “collective self-defense”–likely to be a positive or negative factor going forward?
Gurtov A: China-Japan relations are at a dangerously low point, much worse than in, say, 2005 because of the very real possibility of a clash at sea. The U.S. position on the territorial issue is hardly neutral, since it is vested in the security alliance. Now that the U.S., which has for many years pressed Japan to bear a heavier security burden in Asia, has a nationalistic Japanese leader who is committed to constitutional revision and a larger, more active military, the alliance has a specifically anti-China look that is obviously incompatible with a “new type” of U.S.-China relationship. Prime Minister Abe may talk about engaging China, but all the signals from Tokyo suggest disengagement. It also doesn’t help matters that Abe’s positions have embittered Japan’s relations with South Korea, further undermining regional stability and discomfiting the U.S. “pivot.”

Whither Japan Q: Do you believe that the Senkaku/Diaoyu island dispute deadlock can be resolved? What would be the consequences? Can you offer some idea for its resolution?
Gurtov A: . Abe needs to stop pushing the envelope of Japanese military expansion if he is to convince Beijing that diplomacy is worthwhile. Otherwise, as mentioned, I fear that a firefight will occur, with escalation always a possibility.

Whither Japan Q: What position and future role in Asia and the world do you think is the best for Japan and the Japanese people? Will change by the United States be necessary for Japan to realize this future?
Gurtov A: I have long believed that the most important contributions Japan can make to Asia and the world are as a “global civilian power,” the phrase used by Funabashi Yoichi in the early 1990s. That means taking advantage of Japan’s technological and financial strengths to become a leader in Third World development assistance. Japan can also play greater roles in UN peacekeeping operations, disaster relief, and construction of a security dialogue mechanism for Northeast Asia. Lastly, Japan has to adopt a good neighbor policy focused on improving relations with Korea and China, as Prime Minister Obuchi called for some 14 years ago. For the U.S., a new Japanese mission that rejects “normal nation” militarization may be hard to accept, since it will ultimately require that the military presence in Japan wind down and the security obligation to Japan become more distant. But all this is a small price to pay for a more pacific Asia, especially with regard to China’s view of Japan and China-U.S. relations.

[SSridhar]

US expresses concern over Chinese hypersonic cruise missile test - Business Line

Expressing concern over Chinese hypersonic cruise missile test, top American lawmakers have said the Asia-Pacific region is fast becoming a powder keg.

The House Armed Services Committee Chairman Howard "Buck" McKeon, Congressman Randy Forbes and Mike Rogers in a statement said this situation does nothing to support peaceful coexistence in the Pacific.

"While round after round of defence cuts have knocked America’s technological advantage on its back, the Chinese and other competitor nations push towards military parity with the United States; in some cases, as in this one, they appear to be leaping ahead of us," three Congressmen said.

"We have dithered for three decades now, delaying badly needed replacement equipment for our troops, relying on hardware that was built during the Reagan years," they said.

"The Asia-Pacific is fast becoming a powder keg. Allowing nations that do not share our respect for free and open avenues of commerce to gain a strategic advantage over the United States and her allies only brings us closer to lighting the fuse," the Congressmen said.

Forbes is the Chairman of the Subcommittee on Seapower and Projection Forces and Rogers is the Chairman of the Subcommittee on Strategic Forces.

Last week, the Chinese military successfully concluded the first test flight of a hypersonic missile vehicle, according to US defence officials at the Pentagon.

The hypersonic missile could be a major milestone for China as it modernises its military technology for strategic nuclear and conventional military purposes.

The United States, Russia, and China are all engaged in a hypersonic arms race. All three nations are developing high-speed aerospace vehicles. India is also developing a hypersonic variant of its BrahMos cruise missile.