Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

[IndraD]

MUMBAI: Brokerage house IIFL has said that the BJP's prospects for the 2014 Lok Sabha elections have got better in recent weeks with the best-case scenario indicating that the party may get about 210 seats from about 190 earlier.

The success will be largely driven by the performance in the electorally crucial state of Uttar Pradesh. IIFL forecasts the party winning about 50 seats up from 26 earlier. In Bihar, BJP is expected to win 16 seats from 12 earlier.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/mar ... 653539.cms

[Muppalla]

RajeshA ji, Maya thingy will be pre poll and otherwise no use for INC. It is like Dalit consolidation towards Maya and UPA on a grand nationwide social alliance. Connect the dots to Shinde's Pawar as PM statement. INC is now on a ditch it's own state leaders and do everything to stop Modi.

[Shanmukh]

RajeshA ji, Maya thingy will be pre poll and otherwise no use for INC. It is like Dalit consolidation towards Maya and UPA on a grand nationwide social alliance. Connect the dots to Shinde's Pawar as PM statement. INC is now on a ditch it's own state leaders and do everything to stop Modi.

That is incredibly dangerous for Congress. Negative campaigns against one of the most popular leaders in India could end up with the Congress being seen as a party that is against best interests of the country, and being wiped out totally. The more the Congress plays these negative politics, the more anti-incumbency vote will accrue to NaMo. Chances for AAP and others will decrease as the Congress plays negative politics.

[RajeshA]

Muppalla ji,

Exactly. Only if Mayawati forms an pre-poll alliance with Congress does it mean something. Question is what is on the table for Mayawati?

In Delhi, Congress has successfully moved its vote-banks to AAP. This is something Congress could offer Mayawati in other places. They could say, they would strengthen Mayawati on various seats, including outside UP.

However in urban seats, Congress's vote-banks are already pledged to AAP. In the countryside, the only real vote-banks for Congress are the Christians and Dalits, which are controlled through various political agents.

The only thing that I can come up with is Congress offering its local leaders to contest elections under BSP symbol. This way Congress decides on some seats who would contest, whereas on others Mayawati can put up her candidate, and Congress could transfer the Christians and Dalits to her. I am speaking of outside UP.

That way BSP would come with a much higher number of MPs to the 16. Lok Sabha, possibly 2/3rds of those from outside UP would be crypto-Congressmen.

This arrangement would be good in as far as Congress would then partially be able to control BSP's alliances and policies in next Parliament, while it gives Mayawati to claim a high number of MPs.

This may lead to a PMship for Mayawati in next Third Front government, or may not, depending on how chips fall.

So basically Dynasty would be using other parties to park their leaders during their exile from power. It would also mean that everywhere where there is a AAP or BSP candidate, any Congress candidate standing would simply be a sacrificial goat.

[muraliravi]

Muppalla ji,

Exactly. Only if Mayawati forms an pre-poll alliance with Congress does it mean something. Question is what is on the table for Mayawati?

In Delhi, Congress has successfully moved its vote-banks to AAP. This is something Congress could offer Mayawati in other places. They could say, they would strengthen Mayawati on various seats, including outside UP.

However in urban seats, Congress's vote-banks are already pledged to AAP. In the countryside, the only real vote-banks for Congress are the Christians and Dalits, which are controlled through various political agents.

The only thing that I can come up with is Congress offering its local leaders to contest elections under BSP symbol. This way Congress decides on some seats who would contest, whereas on others Mayawati can put up her candidate, and Congress could transfer the Christians and Dalits to her. I am speaking of outside UP.

That way BSP would come with a much higher number of MPs to the 16. Lok Sabha, possibly 2/3rds of those from outside UP would be crypto-Congressmen.

This arrangement would be good in as far as Congress would then partially be able to control BSP's alliances and policies in next Parliament, while it gives Mayawati to claim a high number of MPs.

This may lead to a PMship for Mayawati in next Third Front government, or may not, depending on how chips fall.

So basically Dynasty would be using other parties to park their leaders during their exile from power. It would also mean that everywhere where there is a AAP or BSP candidate, any Congress candidate standing would simply be a sacrificial goat.

If congress is going to pledge its urban votes to AAP, BJP will win handsomely where ever it is a serious player (not mumbai, becos they are anyway screwed with the mns-ss tiff). But other places, i mean congress can never transfer 100% of its vote to AAP. Modi has locked the bjp votes. So even if congress retains 10% of its vote and transfers the rest to AAP, BJP will win by big margins. Even 10% is optimistic, congress' vote bank will be split right down the middle with AAP.

[Muppalla]

RajeshA ji,

Think the scenario like this:
(1) Maya as PM declared with fanfare of dalit consolidation, power to dalit etc spin
(2) Congress has hold over muslim votes in UP even though they vote to Mulayam. Now they will construct a Dalit+Muslim consolidation across UP, Bihar (Laloo+Paswan+INC gets boost)
(3) Since Maya is getting the coveted PM post, she should not ask anything beyond the 50 seats of UP. Most of India's SCs vote for INC anyway.

If I am INC I will remove MMS tomorrow morning and make Maya as PM even before polls and go with her as PM with the above deal. From Maya's side, she becoming PM is impossible if NaMo become PM and also she can keep trying for UP CM but things will keep changing. it is a God send opportunity for her.

There repercussions are following:
(1) The remaining congressmen who are loyalists will not like this at all. What is the point of being in the party as gravy train is somewhere. Bang for the buck coming down. You can see from the utterance and retraction of sushil kumar shinde. He said Pawar makes a good PM. In Maha things are flux. NCP+SS+RPI Vs BJP+MNS+anti-pawar staunchmen Vs INC is making rounds in the rumor world.

(2) I Muslims consolidate with INC+Maya then Yadavs will lean towards Modi at least in LS elections. Mulayam could becom nanga. UP Bihar will have BC + OBC +Forward caste consolidation in favor of Modi. This will be a huge impact.

This could become another bhasmasura option for Congress party like they did in Andhra. But the challenge has to be taken with deeper spirits by BJP.

[Rahul Mehta]

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/10/opini ... .html?_r=1

Social Media in Indian Politics

Social media are playing an important new role in Indian democracy. A social media campaign by the Electoral Commission drew record levels of voter registration and turnout in elections held in four Indian states, including the capital, New Delhi, in November and December.
Of 790 million eligible Indian voters, about 160 million are first-time voters between the ages of 18 and 24 years old. Political parties are also embracing social media to reach voters, including cellphone messaging. Social media are credited with helping the new Common Man party and its candidate, Arvind Kejriwal, win a surprise victory in Delhi against the Congress and Bharatiya Janata parties. But social media can also be subject to significant abuse. Some politicians have been accused of boosting their apparent popularity on social media with legions of followers who don’t exist and of using social media to smear their opponents. Worse, social media have been used to fan violence against religious and ethnic groups; the dissemination of a fraudulent video may have helped spark deadly clashes between Hindus and Muslims in the city of Muzaffarnagar in September.

Meanwhile, the Indian government has used the 2008 Information Technology (Amendment) Act to increase monitoring and censorship of social media. In 2012, two women were arrested after posting a comment on Facebook that angered politicians in Mumbai. Journalists have had their Twitter accounts disabled, and cartoonists whose works poke fun at officials have had their social media accounts closed. Last year, the government rolled out a Central Monitoring System with vast powers to monitor citizens’ communications. Human Rights Watch called the new system “chilling” in its scope. According to Freedom House, India had the steepest decline in Internet freedom of any country in the year ending in April 2013. The Electoral Commission of India has asked social media providers to monitor their sites for fraud in the run-up to the general elections in April this year. That would be helpful. But Indian voters must also demand that their government bring transparency and accountability to electronic surveillance.

(because of popular demand, I now use words American-elitemen instead of MNC-owners)

And biggest SMs are twitter\FB both under CIA !! And Indian nationalists have no SM. Why? Because nationalists supported leaders who amassed huge plots, gold in India as well as abroad but made no Indian SM. eg one nationalist swadeshi ex-FinMin and his family members have wealth over Rs 5000 crore and he wont be in top 20 in The Nationalist Party. Another was Pramod. List is shorter than Congress, but still endless. Their pet theme was "Congress is 10 times corrupt that we are ; so why do you complain?".

If even 5% of that wealth had gone in creating a nationalist paid-mainstream-media and nationalist SM, then we would NOT be seeing AK drama.

===

Anyway, AK drama is created by American-elitemen and Missionaries via paying mediamen so that NaMo is forced to give 300 out of 543 NDA loksabha tickets to American-elitemen-agents like Aruns(*), swadeshi ex-FinMin, , Naidu, Swaraj , Subramanian Swamy (**) etc etc. American-elitemen and Missionaries will soon have 8 of their key agents like Santosh Hegde as Lokpals. American-elitemen and Missionaries already have over 20 of their men in Supreme and some 200 of their men in High Courts. And over 50% newspapers by readership is with American-elitemen and Missionaries and some 80% TV-news-channels are also with them. Now American-elitemen and Missionaries want NaMo to be PM with 300 NDA MPs of which 200 are agents of American-elitemen and Missionary. So NaMo will have to pass laws/policies what American-elitemen and Missionaries want. And all Hinduvaadies, nationalists and swadeshi will go to sleep because they have a Hinduvaadi, nationalist and swadeshi PM at top !! And while Hinduvaadies, nationalists and swadeshi sleep, the American-elitemen will take over rest half of the economy and Missionaries will convert 15% more, in next 5 years. Solution I propose is that nationalists should start looking for over and above and beyond NaMo, BJP, RSS etc.

====

The fate of AK-drama will decided by American-elitemen and NaMo. If NaMo agrees with American-elitemen's terms and conditions, then American-elitemen will tone down AK for now and use him for 2019. If NaMo refuses to accept their demand, then, American-elitemen will improve Delhi-administration and make it look far better than Gujarat. The paid-media will create a projection that "AK achieved in 2 months which NaMo could not in 12 years" !! And so 5 crore middle class votes will go AAP. Rest you can extrapolate.

The way I see it Modi has a great opportunity to purge BJP of ineffective, criminal and corrupt leaders and infuse the party with young, charismatic rising leaders who display some semblance of honesty, integrity and clean image. Granted a complete overhaul is impractical, Modi can effect a balance.

NaMo will be forced to purge Nationalists, Swadeshi, Hinduvaadi from BJP , using pretext that they are corrupt, inefficient, criminal etc, and give tickets to Missionary-agents and American-elitemen-agents in Indian corporates like Meera , Balakrishnan etc under the pretext that they are young, efficient etc etc. And paid-media will hail it positive step.

====

* - Arun Shourie, the GyaanPurish was editor of CIA-paid Indian Express. During after emergency, CIA had paid IE to run campaign against Devi Indira Amma because Devi Indira Amma split Pakistan, did Pkharan-1 etc etc.

** - Subramanian Swamt dethroned ABV with help of American-elitemen and tried to make Sonia PM of India in 1998. American-elitemen had promised him FinMin position for that.

[Singha]

http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/rahu ... 35453.html

When you lose, you lose your claim to history as well. On December 8, 2013, not only did the Congress acknowledge that it lost, its future leader also conceded his place in history to the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) superhero Arvind Kejriwal. Long before Kejriwal came on the scene, India's grand old party had its own anti-politician: Rahul Gandhi, the prince who professed to be the original apostle of the aam aadmi. That he belonged to a political dynasty but sought to create a Congress where ancestry would not devour merit, threw up interesting challenges and opportunities. A few years later, the opportunities are lost and the challenges compounded by the baggage of the 128-year-old party.

Rahul's public utterances are no longer about his family's legacy but about the needs of the aam aadmi..While Kejriwal went from being an activist to a politician to Delhi chief minister in a span of less than 14 months, Rahul has been trying to play the angry young man of Indian politics for much longer. He entered politics in 2004 and fought the Lok Sabha election from the family borough Amethi. At that time, the Congress's slogan to counter the NDA's India Shining campaign was "what did the Aam Aadmi gain?" It's 2014 and there is an Aam Aadmi Party in power that owes its success to Congress's failures.

Rahul has a habit of playing the activist and then going into hibernation. He took it upon himself to revive Congress's fortunes in Uttar Pradesh because he believed the road to Delhi passes through Lucknow. There, he spoke of empowering the poor and criticised caste- and religion-based politics. He stressed the need to keep criminals out of politics in one public meeting after another. But as the 2012 Assembly polls drew closer, he gave tickets to several party-hoppers in the name of 'winnability', at the cost of trying out clean and fresh faces. On April 14, 2010, he launched 10 yatras from Ambedkar Nagar against the Mayawati government's failures at a grand rally. The two-phase yatras fizzled out within a few days. At an Assembly election rally in 2012, he angrily tore up the Samajwadi Party's (SP) list of promises but failed to give the voters his own. As a result, the Congress won just 28 of 403 seats.

The Congress vice-president also tried to wean away non-Jatav votes from Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). His Dalit home stays and meals were mostly in houses of the Pasis, the second largest Dalit sub-caste in the state after Jatavs. In the end, it remained a pipe dream because Rahul failed to nurture any significant Dalit leaders in the state. In Delhi, Kejriwal's AAP reduced BSP's vote share from 14 per cent in 2008 to 5 per cent in 2013, eating into its Dalit vote base as well as that of Congress by reaching out to the Valmiki community. The two parties got less than 9 per cent of Dalit votes each while AAP alone bagged nearly 30 per cent.

In the decade he has been in politics, Rahul has proposed a number of Kejriwal moves to alter the Congress's DNA. From seeking inner-party democracy to announcing he will represent the tribals of Lanjigarh in Delhi and promising Western Uttar Pradesh farmers protection from government-spearheaded land acquisition, most of his moves had little effect. But nothing seems to have jolted Rahul into action like Kejriwal trumping Sheila Dikshit in New Delhi; the long haul in politics that he once spoke of has given way to tackling the short-term crisis that Congress faces. Result: The wheels of systemic change in the party seem to be turning faster than ever. On January 11, Congress's manifesto committee will hold consultations in Bangalore with people to include their suggestions and will replicate the exercise in Bhopal. Though Congress leaders claim involving people in putting together the Congress manifesto is originally a Rahul idea and the process had kicked off in October 2013, the party only began holding meetings with people two days after the December 8 verdict. The manifesto committee and different ministers have had open house sessions with representatives of SCs and STs as well as those of the minorities.

AAP's win has also prompted Rahul to start sharing his ideas with more people. While Kejriwal may have gone overboard tweeting about his gastrointestinal upheavals, sources say Rahul may get on to Twitter as part of an extensive and costly 'Project Rahul' Congress campaign on the social media. Rahul has, since December 8, addressed more press meets and talked to more journalists informally than he has from the time he joined politics-kick-starting a four-year-old plan of his spreadsheet advisers that was never put into action to insulate him from criticism for the Congress's failure in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh.

Rahul's public utterances are no longer about his family's legacy but about the needs of the aam aadmi. He has even been speaking out against his party chief ministers and on issues such as price rise and corruption, projecting an image of zero tolerance towards corruption-another Kejriwal trait. Congress tried to give most of the credit for Parliament passing the Lokpal Bill to its vice-president. On December 27, he got chief ministers of Congress-led states to assemble in Delhi and agree on measures to check price rise and corruption. They have assured Rahul they will pass Lokayukta bills in their states before February-end. When Parliament meets next month, the Government will put up a number of pending bills, including a citizens' charter, that Rahul has been hard-selling as the Congress's "framework against corruption" since Kejriwal's spectacular performance in Delhi.

Rahul paradropped on Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, but vanished after a poor showing in the polls; Kejriwal, too, was a guerrilla warrior in Delhi's political scene, but he stayed on. For the long haul, perseverance is a trait the reluctant dynast could pick up from Aam Aadmi No. 1.

Follow the writer on Twitter @jatingandhi


Read more at: http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/rahu ... 35453.html

[Singha]

and predictably, Priyanka is being rolled out

http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/cong ... 35698.html

All eyes on charismatic Priyanka, as Congress battles for survival
Javed M Ansari New Delhi, January 11, 2014 | UPDATED 23:57 IST

Her party men refer to her as their Brahmastra, "the ultimate weapon". At 41, the mother of two teenaged school going children Priyanka Gandhi Vadra is easily the most charming member of the Gandhi family. She is young, charismatic and politically astute. All things that Rahul Gandhi should have been.

A Brahmastra, in her own words, "can only be used once", but most Congress leaders and workers alike believe that if ever there was need to deploy the weapon, now would be the time. Beleaguered by corruption scandals, inefficiency and reeling under the impact of one electoral defeat after another, the Congress party faces an existentialist crisis like never before. "It's no ordinary election. This is a battle for our survival. We can't adopt the attitude of we will live to fight another day. If we get the drubbing that is being predicted, that time may not come," says a veteran CWC member.

Priyanka Gandhi's presence earlier in the week at a meeting, in which senior functionaries of the Congress party like Ahamad Patel, Janardhan Dwivedi and Madhusudhan Mistry were present, has once again set in motion the favourite political guessing game of 'will she won't she'. She is widely regarded as the family's most charming Gandhi, but has been careful in avoiding taking on any formal political role. There is little to indicate that Priyanka Gandhi is going to formally take the plunge into active politics. There is also no denying the fact that she is a lot more involved in helping her brother as he gears up to lead the Congress party in 2014 polls.

Priyanka has had a major say every time her mother or her brother has had to make a significant decision. She always has been by the side of her mother and brother on almost all the important occasions. Whether it was in the immediate aftermath of Rajiv Gandhi's assassination or at the Congress Parliamentary Party meeting in the Central hall of Parliament in 2004, where Sonia Gandhi announced her decision to turn down the offer to be prime minister, or Rahul Gandhi's acceptance speech at AICC session in Jaipur in January 2013. A family insider recalls Priyanka holding her mother's hand to sooth her nerves while driving with her to the AICC session at Siri Fort on March 8, 1998 for Sonia Gandhi's first address to the Congress party after taking over as the President of the party.

The Congress has lost 12 of the 16 assembly elections in the last two years. If pollsters are correct, it is headed for a drubbing in the general elections scheduled this year. No wonder then that dispirited Congress workers are increasingly looking to Priyanka to turn around their political fortunes. She had single-handedly turned around her mother's elections from Bellary ensuring that Sonia defeated Sushma Swaraj. She was also instrumental in putting an end to Arun Nehru's attempts to seek re-election from the family bastion of Rae Barelli on a BJP ticket. As far as the Congress workers are concerned, they believe she can provide the cutting edge and re-work her magic at the national stage. However, a more sober assessment points to the fact that despite her campaigning, the Congress won only three of the 12 assembly seats in Amethi and Rae Barelli during the last UP assembly elections. "While she may energise the committed Congress worker, given the strong anti-Congress sentiment in the country, the timing is all wrong," says political analyst Swapan Dasgupta.

"Some people are born with leadership qualities. She is one of them," says a Congress leader, who has been with the party since the time of Indira Gandhi. "I was amongst the first to reach 10 Janpath on the evening when Rajivji was assassinated. Soniaji was extremely distraught. Priyanka was very young, but she displayed remarkable courage. She was the one who was overseeing arrangements both at 10 Janpath and also to bring back his body from Sriperumbudur. She rang up the President and the Prime Minister to expedite the process," says a family aide on the condition of anonymity.

Ironically, at a time when the Congress is getting ready to declare Rahul Gandhi's name as its prime ministerial candidate, there are many people in the party, who view Priyanka to be the saviour. Many old timers, even the ones who are now estranged from the party and the Gandhi family like Natwar Singh, cannot help but praise her. He has worked with four generations of the Gandhis and has seen both Rahul and Priyanka grow up. "She has a very political temperament. She has grandmother's political instincts and her father's compassion and goodness," says Singh.

The contrast with her brother Rahul and the man most likely to be declared the Congress party's prime ministerial candidate cannot be starker. He is hard working, intense, ponderous, obstinate, and ill at ease in delivering speeches. She, on the other hand, has presence and charisma, is extremely charming, fluent in Hindi and has the remarkable ability to connect with the people and with Congressmen cutting across generations, something that Rahul is certainly ill at ease with.

She is also quick witted often flooring opponents with her responses. At the height of the BJP's "foreigner" campaign against her mother, Priyanka left her opponents and questioner totally nonplussed by her response to a question how she felt being referred to as the daughter of a foreigner: "Aap ko lagta hai meri rago me koi videshi khoon daud raha hai". Similarly, she also forced the voluble Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi to put an end to his taunting of the Congress party as a boodhi budhiya by retorting "mai aapko boodhi dikhte hoon".

In the midst of the frenzy around Priyanka, she has chosen to keep quiet, not choosing to add to what she said a couple of years back. "I will do anything to help my brother...whatever is required of me. I will do whatever he requires me to do. He knows to what extent he can require me". Those in the know claim that she was the prime mover behind the decision to bring Rahul into politics and is committed to doing everything she possibly can to ensure that he is a success. "Whatever she does, whether it is by joining politics or from the outside, it will be to aid and supplement the efforts of the brother. Politics and the lure for power do strange things to people, but she will never ever do anything that will even remotely undermine her brother," says a CWC member.


Read more at: http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/cong ... 35698.html

[Singha]

all this Maya Jaya business would mean sacrificial goats would be the local congress MPs and their financial backers each of whom would no doubt need to shell out 1 cr to have a serious campaign.

with the dynasty willing to tie to rope to any boat that keeps them afloat.....its the 'soldiers' who would be left on sinking ship with no life raft.

it is probably better for India if the entire congi octupus at state level disintegrate and merge piecemeal into the regional parties....only the head of the octupus in delhi would be left - easier to any future regime to deal with.

[Santosh]

I can't believe I have actually managed to push this video on teetar. Didn't realise SM was this powerful:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kHr3Glhkgt0

Great video Shonu ji. I RTed and FBed already.

[Shanmukh]

Prashant Bhushan invites Maoists to join AAP.

http://www.deccanchronicle.com/140112/n ... s-movement

The Congress looks like a very palatable option now, compared to the AAP. We should pray to our Gods for succour if these people ever get their hands on the Central Government.

[Shanmukh]

UPA dumps Sanskrit to woo minorities.

http://www.newindianexpress.com/thesund ... ign=buffer

[Shanmukh]

Many hill leaders join BJP in Manipur.

http://e-pao.net/GP.asp?src=26..100114.jan14

Looks like quite a few people have joined BJP

http://www.thesangaiexpress.com/tseitm- ... -campaign/

Victor-ji,
Any info about these people?

Also, Gurgaon MP, Rao Inderjit Singh to join BJP. This guy is a very powerful candidate.

http://www.gurgaonmirror.com/gurgaon-mp ... n-the-bjp/

[krishnan]

https://twitter.com/sanhelmet/status/42 ... 92/photo/1

read it all

[member_20317]

And my weetr account got suspended for @congis weeets.

While I get unsolicited mails asking me to join AAP.

Invited By: AAP Delhi/NCR Professionals Cell Lead
Invited to Circle: AAP Delhi/NCR Professionals Cell
Members: 6021
Founder: Deepak Jain
Address: New Delhi, Delhi, India
Description: This circle is the largest online local COMMUNITY of professionals in Delhi/NCR supporting the Aam Aadmi Party and its mission of eliminating corruption and improving governance. Members will be able to identify and raise corruption/governance issues, discuss and develop collaborative solutions, draw upon the collective expertise of the community to improve transparency and implement a citizen oriented governance model in Delhi/NCR. Please give as much information about you/your profession when joining so this network becomes a close knit social-professional-make a difference online local community that can also provide its professional or subject matter expertise to the Party and the Government.

[JohnTitor]

NaMo will be forced to purge Nationalists, Swadeshi, Hinduvaadi from BJP , using pretext that they are corrupt, inefficient, criminal etc, and give tickets to Missionary-agents and American-elitemen-agents in Indian corporates like Meera , Balakrishnan etc under the pretext that they are young, efficient etc etc. And paid-media will hail it positive step.

rahulji, I think you are off track completely. NaMo will do no such thing and would rather lose than betray his ideals. I think you are being completely negative wrt BJP's chances. I disagree with your assessment & believe you have flung yourself too far against NM. While there may be CT against NM, there are dharmic forces that you have not and cannot perceive(d) that are/will aid NM. I urge you to stop being so negative.

Dhoti shiverers should look at this pic and pee in their pants at the mega crowd pullers that pAAPis have become (this is at amethi where mr. bakwas if fighting shehzada):

https://twitter.com/ratigirl/status/422 ... 84/photo/1

[Singha]

times now was showing vishwas speech without any shot of the crowd...in a corner was a smaller window showing the huge crowd of namo.
a quick looker would think that was his own crowd!

now I understand why.

[vivek.rao]

All these are Modi haters. Kavita is a hardcore Naxal supporter who spews venom on Modi.

Here is their conversation


Sajaano Banerjee ‏@Sajaanobanerjee 8h
Gopal Rai, @AapYogendra and Prof Anant Kumar have all been members of the CPIML at one point of time. Urban naxalites could rule India soon.


Kavita Krishnan ‏@kavita_krishnan 7h
@Sajaanobanerjee no no,@AapYogendra & Anand Kumar have not, tho they're valued friends. Gopal was expelled when he faked a kidnapping 1/2

Sajaano Banerjee ‏@Sajaanobanerjee 7h
@kavita_krishnan @AapYogendra There is tremendous ferment in the CPIML over joining AAP. Comrades from Kerala and Bengal tell me.


Kavita Krishnan
‏@kavita_krishnan
@Sajaanobanerjee Gopal Rai expelled frm AISA, ML in '96 or so when he tried shortcut in LucknowUniv polls by faking kidnapping @AapYogendra

[Shanmukh]

Folks - how about people in India making a short survey of their own offices/colleagues? What percentage are in favour of AAP, BJP and Cong?

[manju]

In the past couple of months I have been talking to taxi and autowallas (about ten).

7 out of 10 are pro modi and proactively mentioned that he is their PM candidate without my prompting
1-2 are thinking about voting Modi for the first time.

This is in the Bengaluru urban area.

[Yagnasri]

Same is Mumbai city also. I have spoken with vide ranging people and almost all of them said Modi. Hardly anyone shown favour to mafia and almost none has any positive opinion about Baba.

[Rahul Mehta]

Rahul Mehta: NaMo will be forced to purge Nationalists, Swadeshi, Hinduvaadi from BJP , using pretext that they are corrupt, inefficient, criminal etc, and give tickets to Missionary-agents and American-elitemen-agents in Indian corporates like Meera , Balakrishnan etc under the pretext that they are young, efficient etc etc. And paid-media will hail it positive step.

Shonu: .... I think you are off track completely. NaMo will do no such thing and would rather lose than betray his ideals. I think you are being completely negative wrt BJP's chances. I disagree with your assessment & believe you have flung yourself too far against NM. While there may be CT against NM, there are dharmic forces that you have not and cannot perceive(d) that are/will aid NM. I urge you to stop being so negative.

If NaMo doesnt give ticket to American-elitemen-agents in BJP, then the American-elitemen will give a huge spin to paid-media , enough to ensure that (1) four crore middle class votes go with AAP (2) all muslim votes, dalit votes, tribal votes that went with Congress in 2009 remain with Congress . And that means BJP will get below 160 seats.

=====

Folks, doing voter survey is very easy. Pls obtain assembly voter list PDF from any local political party member. They all have it or can get it from office. From that PDF , pls select 10-100-200 voters at random. You guys were all born intelligent and reading my posts have made you better, and so I am sure you can make a good random selection method. Pls visit those voters and pls ask them whom they will vote for. Asking people you know is not a good idea, because your sample will NOT have any slum dweller (and they are 40% to 50% of any city). Also, when you ask people you know, many times, they give answers that would please you. So if they know that you are pro-NaMo, they will say "NaMo".

====

Also , a lot can change in 4 months. Before 1947, the nationalists were put in prison or faced threat of imprisonment. Today, the nationalists are free, but most citizens are in "prison" created by paid-mediamen paid by American-elitemen !! And since citizens dont even know that they are in prison, and that that prison gives them lot of entertainment, it is NOT easy to get them out of prison. It is voluminous task for the nationalists to free citizens from this prison.

So say N out of 100 voters have said that they will vote for NaMo. Now how many may get swayed by paid-media in coming 4 months? Hard to predict, But even it is 5%, then you know that American-elitemen will win this election.

[member_20317]

Arre baba ask them if its the blue pill or the red pill for them.

[Dilbu]

In my office (phata finance industry yum yen cee) before 6 months it was a big yes for NaMo. Very few takers for baba even though I came across a few non political type motormas who think Baba taking over CON will make everything right. After AAP victory in Delhi a few of earlier NAMO followers have moved into AAP camp. Revolution and all that is coming according to them. I sometimes see heated debate in cafeteria about Kejriwal as the TV there usually is always on NDTV and these days it is 24x7 talking about AAP. Largely NaMo is still the frontrunner but that outright yes for him has been dented recently.

Dilbullah bin chaiwala reporting from yuppistan junction, Bengaluru. Over and out.

[Shanmukh]

In my office (phata finance industry yum yen cee) before 6 months it was a big yes for NaMo. Very few takers for baba even though I came across a few non political type motormas who think Baba taking over CON will make everything right. After AAP victory in Delhi a few of earlier NAMO followers have moved into AAP camp. Revolution and all that is coming according to them. I sometimes see heated debate in cafeteria about Kejriwal as the TV there usually is always on NDTV and these days it is 24x7 talking about AAP. Largely NaMo is still the frontrunner but that outright yes for him has been dented recently.

Dilbullah bin chaiwala reporting from yuppistan junction, Bengaluru. Over and out.

Thank you, Dilbu-ji. That is very helpful. On a percentage basis, what percent would you say are for NaMo, and what percent are for the Revolution? Also, is it a class/age thingie? As in younger folks for Revolution, and older ones for NaMo? Or is it upper better paid folks for Revolution and lower paid folks for NaMo?

[muraliravi]

http://www.dailypioneer.com/columnists/ ... n-bjp.html

NEW STRATEGIES OF DISSENT

Congress MPs from Mumbai are a worried lot. First, they have become restless with the speculation that the MNS will join the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance. Ramdas Athawale is already a part of it. If all the four fight together, then the Congress will face a major challenge. Second, the AAP is becoming a major threat to the Congress’ vote-bank. At present, all the six seats in Mumbai are with the Congress.

That is the reason why the three young MPs — Milind Deora, Priya Dutt and Sanjay Nirupam — have started emulating the AAP’s strategies. Deora has been raising his voice against his own Government. He opposed the way the Campa Cola society was vacated and the rejection of the Adarsh society report by the Maharashtra Cabinet. Nirupam wrote a letter to the Maharashtra Chief Minister and demanded reduction of the electricity prices. He has warned that if his demand is not met he will protest against his own government. Priya Dutt has also joined him in this cause.

I am clearly confused now, what the heck is going on? Is MNS coming with NDA or what??

[Dilbu]

I cannot give you a breakup exactly like that but I have noticed that AAP revolution folks are usually youngest of the lot. Say 21 to 25 relying mostly on AAP related postings on social media etc to gather their news. Older folks are more pro NAMO or atleast not that much affected by AAP revolution. Percentage would be 50% NAMO 30% for AAP and rest for baba and other options.

[Rahul Mehta]

So this what Rahul Mehta, a common said at 6:52 pm

Also , a lot can change in 4 months. Before 1947, the nationalists were put in prison or faced threat of imprisonment. Today, the nationalists are free, but most citizens are in "prison" created by paid-mediamen paid by American-elitemen !! And since citizens dont even know that they are in prison, and that that prison gives them lot of entertainment, it is NOT easy to get them out of prison. It is voluminous task for the nationalists to free citizens from this prison.

So say N out of 100 voters have said that they will vote for NaMo. Now how many may get swayed by paid-media in coming 4 months? Hard to predict, But even it is 5%, then you know that American-elitemen will win this election.

And this what Dilbu Sir, not so common I presume, said 8 minutes later at 7:00pm

In my office (phata finance industry yum yen cee) before 6 months it was a big yes for NaMo. Very few takers for baba even though I came across a few non political type motormas who think Baba taking over CON will make everything right. After AAP victory in Delhi a few of earlier NAMO followers have moved into AAP camp. Revolution and all that is coming according to them. I sometimes see heated debate in cafeteria about Kejriwal as the TV there usually is always on NDTV and these days it is 24x7 talking about AAP. Largely NaMo is still the frontrunner but that outright yes for him has been dented recently.

Now how come NOT even one activist of my nincompoop Right to Recall Group has moved to AAP? I have only 300-400 or may be 1000 activists across India. But none , not even one, has been impressed by AAP even by 1%. They have been attending AAP meetings since IAC days, but come back by shaking AAP-members faith and their anti-AAP, anti-AK beliefs remains intact. While I smell that too many Bharat Swabhiman Trust workers and even RSS workers are becoming AAPians. IOW, it is NOT easy to make a junior immune to paid media propaganda. For all its size, RSS-apex could not even make its own members immune to paid-media poison. So RSS-members taking commons out of paid-media poison is not going to happen.

Btw, my anti-AK video crossed 110,000 views !! Pls see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J5vH5VZX6XI . And there 8 copies of this video across youtube and total views crossed 200,000 !! God alone knows WhatApp count !! I hope I have reduced at least 1000 AAP votes if not more.

[Atri]

I am clearly confused now, what the heck is going on? Is MNS coming with NDA or what??

I don't know.. what I do know now is that if MNS does not come aboard in next month, it will be severely dented.

[Kanson]

HA HA HA! enjoyed the speech. If it has to be any political talk it has to be like this! Direct attack!!!

Folks - how about people in India making a short survey of their own offices/colleagues? What percentage are in favour of AAP, BJP and Cong?

Arre bhai! why loose heart! you want my prediction? not even a single seat will go to AAP and Congress. Pls keep this bookmarked I like to revisit this post post GE.

[muraliravi]

I am clearly confused now, what the heck is going on? Is MNS coming with NDA or what??

I don't know.. what I do know now is that if MNS does not come aboard in next month, it will be severely dented.

Atri ji,

Are you saying MNS will be dented if they will not join NDA within a month

[vivek.rao]

So this what Rahul Mehta, a common said at 6:52 pm

Also , a lot can change in 4 months. Before 1947, the nationalists were put in prison or faced threat of imprisonment. Today, the nationalists are free, but most citizens are in "prison" created by paid-mediamen paid by American-elitemen !! And since citizens dont even know that they are in prison, and that that prison gives them lot of entertainment, it is NOT easy to get them out of prison. It is voluminous task for the nationalists to free citizens from this prison.

So say N out of 100 voters have said that they will vote for NaMo. Now how many may get swayed by paid-media in coming 4 months? Hard to predict, But even it is 5%, then you know that American-elitemen will win this election.

And this what Dilbu Sir, not so common I presume, said 8 minutes later at 7:00pm

In my office (phata finance industry yum yen cee) before 6 months it was a big yes for NaMo. Very few takers for baba even though I came across a few non political type motormas who think Baba taking over CON will make everything right. After AAP victory in Delhi a few of earlier NAMO followers have moved into AAP camp. Revolution and all that is coming according to them. I sometimes see heated debate in cafeteria about Kejriwal as the TV there usually is always on NDTV and these days it is 24x7 talking about AAP. Largely NaMo is still the frontrunner but that outright yes for him has been dented recently.

Now how come NOT even one activist of my nincompoop Right to Recall Group has moved to AAP? I have only 300-400 or may be 1000 activists across India. But none , not even one, has been impressed by AAP even by 1%. They have been attending AAP meetings since IAC days, but come back by shaking AAP-members faith and their anti-AAP, anti-AK beliefs remains intact. While I smell that too many Bharat Swabhiman Trust workers and even RSS workers are becoming AAPians. IOW, it is NOT easy to make a junior immune to paid media propaganda. For all its size, RSS-apex could not even make its own members immune to paid-media poison. So RSS-members taking commons out of paid-media poison is not going to happen.

Btw, my anti-AK video crossed 110,000 views !! Pls see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J5vH5VZX6XI . And there 8 copies of this video across youtube and total views crossed 200,000 !! God alone knows WhatApp count !! I hope I have reduced at least 1000 AAP votes if not more.

RMji - I am coming across to your view. Looks like the robust plan of whoever it is (I don't know who is behind) to force Modi to reduce leverage of nationalist forces.

When I tell this to friends, they call me conspiracy theorist and laugh at me. But I realize you are right

[IndraD]

I work in UK and here all muslim NRIs are rooting for AAP, among Hindus those who are young could be in two minds while mature ones are firmly with Modi

[muraliravi]

I work in UK and here all muslim NRIs are rooting for AAP, among Hindus those who are young could be in two minds while mature ones are firmly with Modi

good, congress will not be able to transfer 100% of its vote to AAP. So even if AAP takes 5-6% of BJP vote, AAP will still divide more congress vote and BJP will win.

[SriKumar]

....... video crossed 110,000 views !! Pls see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J5vH5VZX6XI . And there 8 copies of this video across youtube and total views crossed 200,000 !! .

Rahul mian...a general comment about your videos vs. your posts. For some odd reason, your videos are much more believable/credible than your posts. I dont know whether it is because it is in colloquial Hindi with some sprinkling of angrezie words (vs. your posts which are angrezi) or whether you have a lot more time in video to convey your point, or whether it is the support of pictures that you can show in your video (which cannot be done in posts) or whether your sincerity and calmness comes across better in video (vs. posts), or maybe it is the fact that people can associate a face with the words in the video. The difference between the two is not minor or trivial. When your NBJP or other posts are read, some of them sound repetitive, disruptively funny (or irritating to some) or just plain unbelievable. That issue is somehow not there in the videos...you dont look or sound crazy/out-there ...and I mean this in a good sense... .

[member_20317]

Ok some OT be tolerated please.

RM ji,

The count you see is mostly by BJP supporters and BJP opponents, who have these things on their mind. Most BJP walas would be educated in the top percentile and they are already immune to the 'dial an yield' solutions offered by AK type Messiah. I am rather sure, based on a strong gut feel that these people are watching only because they have until now not given a thought to the political aspect of India's socio-economic security. Mostly because these people are busy professionals in their own right and cannot realistically be expected to think all the time about the harm causing capability of AK.

And no, not in the low thousands rather the count that your video has dissuaded could easily be in the very high thousands. That is when counting on a proportionate basis. There are about 30 objections that can be mentioned against AK/AAP and your inputs cover some of the more recognizable types that anybody can understand. In the next 2-4 months this input is going to be mentioned by each of these 200000*50% of the BJP supporters (50% would be your opponents watching in order to strategise better) are going to turn at least 10 other people. ~10 lac dissuasion and you probably should get credit for about 5% of that (primarily the contemporary legislative ideas).

In fact during my 1 month hiatus from BRF I too had taken your courses to take on these colour revolutionaries and I know just how to get under their skin My confrontations do not turn the people I address but they do make careful at least 2-5 other people watching the back and forth. The AAP wala gathers nothing and loses face too. I ensure that. I will probably be able to get 20-30 voters easily, who would not otherwise be voting to go out and vote for NaMo this time. And if I do not get bound by too much work then its going to be something like 100-200. Plan to put in some money into it too (disclaimer - I am not a formal Sanghi and will be getting nothing in return. Doing it just because I am betting an educated bet).

You can think anything about your personal political worth but from the users perspective this is your political input to India. At least from one users perspective based entirely on gut feel.

/OT off.

[member_20317]

On topic,

RM ji the Bharat Swabhiman walas and RSS people you see shaken are the ones who got in because they could not foresee that AK would betray Anna and they saw their leaders near Anna and thought the the IAC circus had sangh ok. That is not going to happen in future at all. Again these people were so lead only because there was a kernel of truth to it. Everybody wanted to crack IAC. Congress got successful and all else failed. Chalta hai I guess in politics. In fact it is these people who would be beating AK with broom (figuratively speaking) in GE-14.

[JohnTitor]

Rahulji, I have been patient with you and tried to reason with you. Your only responses are based on whatever evidence you come up with and are not based on reality and what is happening on the ground. So I apologise for the rest of this post in advance because I feel this is the only way to get through to you. I am not saying everything you said is nonsense but I feel you have lost the plot and continuing with the fordfoundation CT (which is true no doubt) without seeing the ground effects AFTER the election.

If NaMo doesnt give ticket to American-elitemen-agents in BJP, then the American-elitemen will give a huge spin to paid-media , enough to ensure that (1) four crore middle class votes go with AAP (2) all muslim votes, dalit votes, tribal votes that went with Congress in 2009 remain with Congress . And that means BJP will get below 160 seats.

All this is useless. Everyone has noticed pAAPs 24hr 1-million channel broadcast that has replaced cricket, news of r@pes and savita bhabi serials. People are getting sick of seeing AKs face on TV. It doesn't help that he is now invented K-Turn (new version of UTurn) and his minions dr. bakwas and prashant "deshdrohi" bushan are making pAAPis look like morons. Further the "mango" feeling is starting to turn sour with every man and his dog who lives in 100BHK bunglaws are joining AAP.

The poor will never vote for these idiots because they will now pay increased water and electricity charges what with tanker mafia selling them "free" water. Lets not forget the 800 families who were transferred will also be pissed off. All this adds up and they will not be anywhere near popular in the GE. As we get closer, it will get worse for farjiwal because of his ineffectiveness and lack of governance. Not to mention his "honesty" which has been torn apart on teetar. Here is a sample

#YoKejriwalSoHonest
Even Before birth AK was so honest that he selected himself out of all sperms through SMS referendum.

The above hastag has been topping teetar for 3 days now.

The middleclass are the ones tweeting and the rich aren't going to wait 2hrs in the sun to vote. It makes no difference to them who comes to power as they will get what they want one way or another.

Your constant negativity is based on pre-Delhi elections and while your data might be right your conclusions are not. Infact, you are starting to sound like this guy.

The pro-AAP supporters that are on there are mostly ex-INC soldiers who have now migrated to what they consider a "more likely winner" after the election. Before Delhi13, it was Rahul V NM, now its AK v NM with no mention of RG whatsoever. AK has even replaced RG as the local joker. The media can pump up the volume and constantly show AKs face and constant reports on his bowel movements but people see how they have been affected. Every rally AAP has had so far (after Delhi13) have had no more than 10k people attending. This is even worse than RGs rallies. Lets not forget that AK is doing nothing different to congress - Read this. They are giving free booze and paying people 5k to walk around with their silly topis to gain publicity. I bet even they will go and vote for INC (if not NM) in May [remember that during the recent elections people were paid "handsomely" by INC to attend rallies and vote.. but they never voted for them. The muslim votes you speak off were never NMs and so you cant count losing whats not yours as a loss. AAP will destroy INC at most (I feel that INC voters are now split half way b/w INC and AAP) with a small percentage going to NM.

AAP is sending spam to everyone and "thanking" them for becoming a member even though they never became one! (again see teetar posts). Media is also tryin to hyper their popularity by saying they are runnning membership drives with 1km waiting lines to get into their office. But this isn't reality and people have said there is no such thing (even in urban areas like Bangalore).

So don't get carried away with the MSM..

So the way I see it, unless there is EVM magic, NM is going to be the next PM. The only question is how many seats over 200 will BJP get on its own.

[madhu]

Arre bhai! why loose heart! you want my prediction? not even a single seat will go to AAP and Congress. Pls keep this bookmarked I like to revisit this post post GE.

well it is to be worried sir, take my words cong will repeat delhi... and will come to power if NDA/BJP cant get 272, it cannot form government.