Managing Chinese Threat

[SSridhar]

NightWatch For the night of 14 January 2014

China-South China Sea: China continues to require that fishing craft from Southeast Asian nations that border the South China Sea must follow Chinese fishing regulations which are now in force.

Comment: The leaders of the regional states are finally coming to appreciate the significance - or audacity -- of the Chinese claim. The South China Sea is enormous, but China reportedly plans to enforce its claim by seizing and occupying the islands that are claimed by other states, one by one, according to one Chinese report over the weekend. Collectively, the Southeast Asian states might pool their resources to confront China once or twice. However, without US naval backing and extensive support, those would be diminishing efforts that eventually would leave their states vulnerable to Chinese military pressure. Without a nearly permanent US Navy presence in Southeast Asia, the Chinese claims will go unchallenged for all practical purposes. The regional fishing fleets will comply with the new Chinese rules. China will not attack Spratly Island, the largest in the Spratly chain, because it is held by Chinese Nationalist soldiers from the Republic of China, on Taiwan, which asserts the same ownership claim as the People's Republic government in Beijing.

China unilaterally imposes seasonal fishing ban and seizes fishing boats of other nations during those times. China claims its territorial waters as extending all the way to 200 nautical miles which is only the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) whereas UNCLOS defines territorial waters as a mere 12 nautical miles. So, the idea clearly is to get these far flung islands under its control, establish a de-facto rule over the fishing boats, establish ADIZ and make airlines comply with its unlawful requirements so that de-facto can be turned into de-jure at an appropriate time.

[Christopher Sidor]

NightWatch For the night of 14 January 2014

China-South China Sea: China continues to require that fishing craft from Southeast Asian nations that border the South China Sea must follow Chinese fishing regulations which are now in force.

Comment: China will not attack Spratly Island, the largest in the Spratly chain, because it is held by Chinese Nationalist soldiers from the Republic of China, on Taiwan, which asserts the same ownership claim as the People's Republic government in Beijing.

Want any more proof that PRC and RoC/Taiwan are the different sides of the same coin? One is head the other is tail. The so called 9 dashed line was a creation of KMT, i.e. erstwhile rules of RoC/Taiwan. PRC took up the mantle because it did not want to be accused of being soft on the so called historical claims of China.

[SSridhar]

Sino-Japanese Acrimony Spills Over into Africa - Aman Sethi, The Hindu

A day after Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe addressed the African Union (AU) and pledged loans worth $2 billion over five years as private sector assistance to the continent, China’s Ambassador to the AU, Xie Xiaoyan, described Mr. Abe as “the biggest troublemaker in Asia.”

“What can Japan do… in order for Africa to realise its brilliant future?” Mr. Abe asked, in his speech at the conclusion of a week of continent-wide diplomacy to tie up precious energy resources in Mozambique, offer billions of dollars in aid, trade and loans, and re-invigorate Japanese ties with Africa.

Mr. Abe’s diplomatic push has upset the Chinese government that accords great strategic significance to Africa as a source of raw materials and a market for finished goods. In 2012, China’s trade with Africa was set to surpass $200 billion.

Ambassador Xie’s comments come at a time of rising Sino-Japanese tensions over flight zones, maritime rules for fishing vessels, the disputed Senkaku Islands, and Prime Minister Abe’s recent visit to the controversial Yasukuni Shrine.

Military drill

On Monday, Japan held a military drill, termed “Island Defence”, in which elite Japanese paratroopers simulated the recapture of a remote island from an enemy country.

“We can never overlook China’s repeated entries into our territorial waters. In addition to diplomatic efforts, we will cooperate with the Coast Guard to securely defend our territory and waters around the Senkaku islands,” said Japan’s Defence Minister Itsunori Onodera after the drill.

At the AU on Wednesday, China’s Ambassador Xie held an emotional press conference where he held up photographs of Japanese brutality in the course of what came to be known as the “Rape of Nanjing” in the Second Sino-Japan war of 1937.

“The Yasukuni Shrine was once a spiritual tool and symbol of Japanese militarism,” Mr. Xie said, referring to Mr. Abe’s recent visit. “This is a brazen affront on people of all countries that once suffered from Japanese militarist aggression.”

“The Japanese Prime Minister is trying to put on two faces – one to be a peace-loving leader who talks about cooperation, economics and trying to be friends with Africa,” Mr. Xie said. “In Asia he is trying… to make trouble amongst Asian countries.”

‘Not aligning with people’

Prior to Mr. Abe’s visit, the Japanese government made several allusions to China’s apparent strategy of aligning with African leaders rather than their people.

“We will centre the axis of Japan’s diplomacy towards Africa on two groups,” Mr. Abe said in his speech on Tuesday. “Young people, who will without a doubt shoulder the responsibility for the future Africa, and women, who will give life to Africa’s future generations.”

In comments to the BBC, Mr. Abe’s spokesperson said, “Countries like Japan… cannot provide African leaders with beautiful houses or beautiful ministerial buildings.”

On Wednesday, China hit back. “China and Africa started cooperation, supported each other for many decades, when China was poor, when Africa was not getting the kind of attention it is getting today, it was neglected,” said Mr. Xie. “We don’t engage in such competition as subscribed by some countries.”

[ramana]

Deepak Lal

http://www.business-standard.com/articl ... 370_1.html

This year marks the centenary of the start of the First World War, which ended the near century of global peace that followed the ascendancy of the British imperium. This peace was shattered by the emerging power of Germany seeking Lebensraum, or "room to live", and the world was plunged into a half century of war and disorder in which the other emerging power - Japan - added to the mayhem with its own attempt at replacing a seemingly economically weakened and isolationist United States as the predominant Pacific power. Today, it is the emerging Chinese power - suffering like these predecessors from the hubris of its recent economic progress - that, with its escalating territorial disputes with its neighbours (particularly those allied with the current superpower), seems to be seeking to change the current global order by force of arms. How should the rest of the world respond?

The aim must be to persuade China to take the path that Germany and Japan took after their military defeats to gain global power and prestige through a "trading state" strategy, rather than their failed military option. There is an ongoing debate in China between reformers who "advocate more international co-operation and a commitment to international values" and the nationalists and conservatives "who want to recover lost territories and position China as a geopolitical great power", which would "erase the limitations and humiliation of its past" through "a more assertive foreign policy" (as observed by the European Council on Foreign Relations' Francois Godement in his essay "China at the crossroads"). The outcome of this debate will determine whether the long peace under the US imperium continues or whether we will see another Great War.

A number of mutually reinforcing actions by other global powers are needed to provide the carrots and sticks to persuade China to adopt the peaceful route. The first step is to build on the continuing need for China to keep raising its per capita income, as the legitimacy of the increasingly insecure and paranoid Chinese Communist Party (CCP) depends on this. Hence, though there is much understandable chagrin at China's mercantilist economic policies - and it may be tempting for its trading partners to try and stem its economic rise by following a tit-for-tat policy - this would be a mistake. We have known since Adam Smith's The Wealth of Nations that, irrespective of the protectionist policies (including exchange-rate protection) of the Chinese, the best option for other countries is still to follow liberal foreign trade and investment policies. Eventually, as is slowly happening, the Chinese themselves will come to see that their mercantilism only harms the economic welfare of their own country.

Similarly, given the angst over Chinese foreign investment buying up the world, except for a few strategic industries, it is still in the interests of the rest of the world to welcome Chinese foreign investment. These liberal international economic policies also provide those in China seeking to improve the per capita standard of living of their populace towards those of advanced countries powerful arguments against the hawks who seek to use military force to acquire power and prestige.

This may not be enough to persuade the CCP against using force of arms to change the global order. Its atavistic beliefs (outlined in my last column, "China's geopolitical resurgence", December 21, 2013) will also need to change. The first of these is to prevent the Chinese from dealing with their various adversaries in territorial disputes bilaterally, as is their wont. This is relevant in China's current dealings with the other claimants in the maritime disputes in the sea to China's south, and with the riparian states of the two major rivers flowing from Tibet (the Brahmaputra and the Mekong). Hence the significance of the Lower Mekong Initiative (LMI) - promoted by Hillary Clinton - which excludes China. Edward Luttwak observes in The Rise of China vs the Logic of Strategy : "The LMI is to monitor and co-ordinate responses to the construction of dams - particularly but not exclusively those being built in China. Encirclement light (the not exclusively is a nice touch) still encircles."

India should seek to aim to do something similar with the riparian states of the Brahmaputra. In addition, on both these rivers there could be a role for the World Bank to negotiate something similar on the Indus Waters Treaty it arranged between India and Pakistan, which has held despite 60 years of conflict between the two countries. The World Bank's recent sponsoring of an arrangement between Israel, Jordan and Palestine, allowing the waters of the Jordan River to replenish those of the Dead Sea, would also be a precedent - and at least test China's claims about its benign intentions about the two major Asian river systems.

Similarly, in the current territorial disputes in the South China Sea, the Philippines has filed an unprecedented arbitration case against China with the United Nation's International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea. Perhaps instead of dealing bilaterally with the Chinese in these territorial disputes, the other countries involved should again jointly follow the Philippines' example.

The countries involved in the dispute that China has provoked in the South China Sea are already constructing an informal coalition to counter its military rise by creating, resurrecting and strengthening their military links with the US. India's "Look East" policy and the Indo-US strategic agreement fit into this scheme. But Professor Luttwak further commends the strategy that Great Britain developed to resist Germany's rise. As the Germans, fuelled by hubris - like many Chinese today - "were plainly unhinged by the rapidity of their rise", the asymmetrical British response was a veritable diplomatic revolution. It settled its many disputes with Russia and France, and by 1907 had encircled Germany with the increasingly coordinated power of the British, French and Russian empires; while, in the Far East, any potential German-Japanese alliance was pre-empted by the Anglo-Japanese treaty of 1902. The outcome of the bloody World War the Germans provoked was utterly preordained, as the alliance created by the British controlled all the world's oceanic passages. On land, despite the many victories of the German army, "blockade, crippling shortage of raw materials, and consequent defeat by cumulative economic exhaustion [led] to societal disintegration." Can we expect Barack Obama's America to do something similar? This is the subject of my next column.

[SSridhar]

China aims to grab South China Sea using fishing law: Philippines - Straits Times

The Philippines Saturday said a Chinese rule requiring foreign fishing vessels to secure permission to enter much of the South China Sea was part of a long-term scheme to claim the entire body of water.

China's southern island province of Hainan passed the rule in November and it took effect this year as tensions escalate over overlapping claims to the waters between China, the Philippines, Vietnam and other nations.

"The Hainan fisheries law is only one of the unilateral measures by China to force a change in the regional status quo in order to advance its...position of undisputed sovereignty over nearly the entire SCS (South China Sea)," Foreign Department spokesman Raul Hernandez said in a statement.

In September 2013, the senior officials of ASEAN and China met in China and decided on the Implementation of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DoC). The DoC was a prelude to the formal Code of Conduct (CoC) and agreed to in c. 2002; but, China has shown little interest in developing this further. In the Brunei ASEAN summit meet, ASEAN resolved to intensify the discussions with China on the CoC.

China unilaterally imposes seasonal fishing ban and seizes fishing boats of other nations during those times. China claims its territorial waters as extending all the way to 200 nautical miles which is only the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) whereas UNCLOS defines territorial waters as a mere 12 nautical miles. By staking its claim to islands far flung from mainland China and even seizing them, the Chinese strategy seems to be to legally claim the entire South China Sea. That is why it is unwilling to subject itself to UNCLOS provisions now. Thus China claims the 3.5 million Sq Km of South China Sea as its own. Thus Spratly Islands in the southern portion of the South China Sea is claimed entirely by China while there are competing claims by Vietnam, Philippines, Taiwan and Malaysia. Similarly, the Paracells Islands in the eastern parts of the South China Sea are claimed by China while contested b Vietnam and Taiwan. China has elevated its claims to the South China Sea as its ‘core interest’ along with Taiwan and Tibet.

In the 2013 Shangri-La conference in Singapore, Lieutenant General Qi Jianguo, deputy chief of the general staff of the People's Liberation Army, defended the Chinese policy thus: "Our attitude on East China Sea and South China Sea is that they are in our Chinese sovereignty. We are very clear about that. China has never taken foreign expansion and military conquering as a state policy".

[chanakyaa]

How Erik Prince, Founder of Blackwater, Will Help China Subjugate Africa

http://libertyblitzkrieg.com/2014/01/15 ... te-africa/

China’s ongoing colonization of Africa represents yet another sad development in the continent’s tragic history. I briefly highlighted this topic once before in December 2012, via a “Guest Post” I suggest reading titled: Africa in the Crosshairs.

Unfortunately, Erik Price of Blackwater infamy is now coming to town, which can only mean more pain, suffering and servitude for Africa.....

[Christopher Sidor]

CSIS PacNet #5 The Yasukuni Puzzle ---- dated January 14, 2014

A Japanese view on the recent shrine visits

The doubts of many Japanese about the legal, ethical, and factual legitimacy of the Tribunal and its rulings are at the heart of Japanese indifference to Abe’s visit.
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Togo Shigenori, a career diplomat who was foreign minister both at the beginning and the end of the war against the United States, died during his prison term. His opposition to the pro-Axis alliance and being removed from his ambassadorship in Germany did not save him from the charge of taking part in the planning of the surprise attack on Pearl Harbor. His last minute diplomatic effort to avert a war against the United States was interpreted as a disguise.
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the “surprise attack”(pearl harbour attack) discourse continues to be used to downplay the gross negligence of the US Navy at the time.
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It is likely that Abe and future prime ministers will continue to visit Yasukuni Shrine. Such visits, however, should not automatically be interpreted as blanket endorsement of the past acts of all the enshrined by the prime minister or the public. The visits (regardless of the intentions of the visitor) will not by themselves encourage an ultra-right interpretation of Japan’s wartime history, but will encourage holistic inquiry into domestic politics and decision-making, especially between the late 1920s (the Manchurian Incident) and the 1950s.

The real problem is that PRC, ROC and South Koreas hyperventilating about these visits may be hijacked by the Japanese far right or ultra-nationalist.

[SSridhar]

Best Thing for Senkakus, Never let Push Come to Shove - Japan Times

On Jan. 12, Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera observed the annual drill held by the Ground Self-Defense Force’s elite 1st Airborne Brigade in Narashino, Chiba Prefecture.

Dozens of paratroopers jumped out of aircraft and helicopters flying 340 meters above and landed on the exercise area.

Some were wearing wet suits, implying that in an actual combat operation, they may have to jump into the sea. Overhead, Maritime Self-Defense Force P-3C Orion anti-submarine aircraft flew by.

The drill was premised on a scenario in which the Self-Defense Forces had to recapture a remote island that was occupied by an enemy. The enemy was never officially specified, but the goal of the exercise was obvious to any observer: Defend the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea from the Chinese military.

The drill was especially significant to Onodera. Earlier in the day, three Chinese Coast Guard ships intruded into Japan’s territorial waters around the Senkakus, pressing Beijing’s claim to the Japan-controlled uninhabited islets.

“Today, Chinese government ships intruded into the territorial sea around the Senkakus for the first time this year,” Onodera told reporters after the exercise.

“The role of the 1st Airborne Brigade will become more important than ever,” he said.

But in recent interviews with The Japan Times, experts and former SDF officers warned that Japan alone would be unable to defend the Senkakus if a full-fledged war breaks out, given the overwhelming number of modern Chinese fighters deployed at Chinese bases on the continent and ready to fly over the East China Sea.

Japan would find no choice but seek the U.S. military’s help to defend the Senkakus if China ever fully mobilizes its military to attack the islets, the experts and retired officers said.

And whether the U.S. would actually engage China in a battle to defend the small uninhabited islets would remain unclear until the very last moment, they said.

“Given the current conditions, Japan (alone) would never be able to defend the Senkakus,” said Ikuo Kayahara, a retired GSDF major general and a professor emeritus at Takushoku University in Tokyo. Kayahara is widely regarded as one of the most prominent Japanese experts on the Chinese military.

“To recapture a remote island, you need to first win air superiority over the area, and then maritime control,” he said.

Echoing many other experts, Kayahara said he does not believe the top leaders of China or Japan are willing to start a war over the Senkakus, if only to avoid the economic and political consequences of such action, let alone the collateral damage.

But Kayahara warned that a military clash, particularly in the air, could in fact take place, even if only by accident. This would fan nationalism in both countries and could escalate into a war.

“Japan and China don’t have crisis-management systems to contain such an accidental clash. In that sense, we are in a very dangerous situation,” said Kayahara, calling on Tokyo and Beijing to set up hotlines between their top military leaders and with front-line commanders.

Military analysts agree that the Maritime Self-Defense Force, in particular its ultra-quiet submarines, have maintained an advantage over the Chinese navy in the East China Sea because many of China’s vessels are equipped with older or outdated air-defense and radar systems.

But China is believed to have deployed about 180 of its mainstay fourth-generation fighter jets in the Nanjing Military Region, and all are capable of reaching the Senkakus, about 420 km away from the nearest Chinese air base on the continent.

Meanwhile Japan has only about 20 F-15s, which possess a combat capability comparable to the 180 modern Chinese fighters — at the Air Self-Defense Force’s Naha Base in Okinawa, also about 420 km away from the Senkakus.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe plans to double the number to 40 under the new five-year defense buildup program, but China will still have air superiority over the East China Sea, said Shunji Taoka, a noted military journalist and former senior writer for the daily Asahi Shimbun.

“If you lose air superiority, you can’t operate surface ships to defend a remote island,” Taoka said.

According to the Military Balance, an annual assessment of nations’ military capabilities published by the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, China has deployed four to five air regiments of fourth-generation fighters, including the powerful Su-27, Su-30, J-10 and J-11 aircraft, in the Nanjing Military Region, which faces Taiwan, the nearby Senkakus and other islands.

According to Taoka and other experts, a typical Chinese air regiment reportedly consists of 36 fighters. Based on this assumption, the total number of modern fighters in the region is estimated at around 180.

Taoka has pointed out that Beijing has put particular emphasis on strengthening its air force in the Nanjing Military Region, which faces Taiwan. The region covers Anhui, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Jiangxi and Fujian provinces.

“If (the Chinese military) launches a full-fledged operation, we would be in big trouble. We would definitely need (the involvement) of the U.S. military forces” to defend the Senkakus, retired Adm. Kazuya Natsukawa, former chairman of the SDF’s joint staff, said during a recent interview.

But Kayahara, Taoka and Natsukawa all believe the U.S. might not engage in a full-fledged war against China to defend the small uninhabited islets, which have little importance for Washington.

The Japan-U.S. security treaty obliges the U.S. to defend Japan if it comes under attack.

But Taoka pointed out that despite the treaty, the U.S. president could technically avoid sending American forces to the Senkakus by seeking the approval of Congress, which Taoka says would probably turn down the president’s request.

Taoka also argued that the U.S. would try to avoid being dragged into a war with China over the tiny Japanese islets and sacrificing its vital economic interests in China.

Kayahara said he believes the U.S. would at least deploy aircraft carriers near the Senkakus as a show of force to avoid losing the trust of its military allies in Asia, including South Korea. But whether it would engage in a war with China would remain unclear until the last moment, he said.

The most realistic scenario that Natsukawa and other SDF officers are worried about is, however, not an all-out military attack, but a Senkakus incursion involving hundreds of small fishing vessels with paramilitary troops aboard, Natsukawa said.

In 1978, more than 100 Chinese fishing vessels, many of them armed with machine guns, intruded into Japan’s territorial waters around the islets to protest Japan’s control over the Senkakus, which dates to 1895. China only started to claim the islets in the early 1970s.

If this were to happen again, Japan may not immediately and officially be able to determine whether those aboard the vessels are military forces, and this could delay any SDF mobilization, he said.

“If numerous fishing ships come, some of them would get past (Japan’s defenses) and some may land on an island,” Natsukawa said.

“That would pose a big problem (to the government). Should we use military force to repel them? It’d be a difficult decision to make,” Natsukawa said.

Kayahara argued the best policy for Japan is not to provoke China and not to provide ammunition for Beijing to criticize and isolate Japan internationally.

In that context, Abe should have not visited war-related Yasukuni Shrine, he said.

“Many Japanese believe Japan is a big, strong power, but it’s not as far as national security is concerned,” he said.

Japan should put priority on maintaining the Japan-U.S. military alliance to keep China in check, but Abe ignored U.S. advice not to visit Yasukuni and has thus damaged his reputation in the U.S., Kayahara said.

[SSridhar]

China Begins Naval Drill in South China Sea - The Hindu

Chinese naval vessels including an island landing ship are staging drills in the South China Sea, where China and several other nations are locked in territorial disputes.

The official Xinhua News Agency said two destroyers and China’s largest amphibious landing craft departed the naval base on the southern island province of Hainan on Monday. The ships also boast three helicopters and a company of marines.

Xinhua quoted Commander Jiang Weilie as saying the drills would focus on integrated combat missions involving ships, submarines and aircraft, suggesting other units may also be involved.

China has moved sharply to assert its claim to nearly the entire South China Sea and its island groups. The Philippines, Taiwan, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei also claim the entire sea or parts of it. AP

[Paul]

Per Wiki Japanese air force has 153 + 45 F-15s. But overall fighter strength appears to be low.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_Air_ ... ense_Force

The JASDF had an estimated 45,000 personnel in 2005, and as of 2013 operates 791 aircraft.[1] Of those 791 aircraft in service approximately 350 are fighter aircraft.

[Mahesh_R]

Jpan vows defence - The Hindu

The best thing Jpan can do is going Nuclear....I understand they are the ONLY nation who have suffered a great loss due to Nuclear bmbs...but that is ONLY option I can see will save from PRC...
We all know when push comes to shove uncle will run with tail between his legs...
its matter of time when 100 or max 1000 uncle soldiers die in a conflict with PRC for Jpan ( I highly doubt uncle will ever get into a conflict and fight a war for some other nation)...there will be domestic compulsion to pull back the forces and no amount of so called TREATY will help Jpan..

Someone has to give this suggestion for Jpan to go Nuclear and should not sign a treat or declare a POLICY called NO FIRST USE.....that is ONLY thing that will help Jpan to protect the islands, and their nation...just blindly trusting uncle coz there is a treaty is the most foolish thing to do... its NOT that PRC will nuke Jpan...its the fear of retaliation that will prevent even conventional war between them... well ONLY time will tell us if Jpan made a mistake of not going nuclear and losing all its islands and rich natural resources to PRC...

[Virendra]

Has anyone seen the news on Chinese build up around Demchok?
Surveillance tower, Solar battery and what not.

[SSridhar]

NightWatch For the night of 21 January 2014

China-Southeast Asia: A Chinese media outlet reported today that a 5,000-ton law enforcement patrol ship will be based at what Beijing calls Sansha City in the Paracel Islands, in the South China Sea. The China Ocean News reported the ship will begin making regular patrols in the South China Sea to enforce new regulations. Meanwhile, on Monday, a naval task group from the South Sea Fleet set sail from a military port on Hainan Island for a drill in the South China Sea. The Chinese claimed the drill is part of the annual exercise cycle and will include combat exercises in the West Pacific Ocean and the east Indian Ocean. The three-ship task group consists of the amphibious landing craft Changbaishan and destroyers Wuhan and Haikou, according to the press statement. The Changbaishan is the country's largest landing ship by gross tonnage and is equipped with an advanced weapon system. Both the Wuhan and the Haikou have experience of major drills and escort missions in the Gulf of Aden.

Comment: The Chinese are moving with deliberate speed to demonstrate they have the law enforcement and naval capabilities to back up their claim to own almost all of the South China Sea and to enforce their new fishing regulations. Negotiations are nice, but the foreign ministry spokesperson said today that China's ownership of the islands and the sea areas is "indisputable" The naval statement indicates the Chinese also intend to show the flag and train in India's region of influence in the eastern Indian Ocean. That would represent a deliberate taunt at the Indian armed forces which have a joint base in the Andaman Islands in the eastern Indian Ocean. Finally, the Chinese seem particularly fond of identifying their naval ships and crews that gained ocean patrol experience from their anti-pirate patrols off the coast of Somalia, in cooperation with NATO and other modern navies. They received excellent training and evidently were adept students.

[member_19686]

The best thing Jpan can do is going Nuclear....I understand they are the ONLY nation who have suffered a great loss due to Nuclear bmbs...but that is ONLY option I can see will save from PRC...
We all know when push comes to shove uncle will run with tail between his legs...
its matter of time when 100 or max 1000 uncle soldiers die in a conflict with PRC for Jpan ( I highly doubt uncle will ever get into a conflict and fight a war for some other nation)...there will be domestic compulsion to pull back the forces and no amount of so called TREATY will help Jpan..

Someone has to give this suggestion for Jpan to go Nuclear and should not sign a treat or declare a POLICY called NO FIRST USE.....that is ONLY thing that will help Jpan to protect the islands, and their nation...just blindly trusting uncle coz there is a treaty is the most foolish thing to do... its NOT that PRC will nuke Jpan...its the fear of retaliation that will prevent even conventional war between them... well ONLY time will tell us if Jpan made a mistake of not going nuclear and losing all its islands and rich natural resources to PRC...

Already advocated by Toshio Tamogami who is one of the candidates for Tokyo governor post this year.

In addition to nuclear warheads he also advocates building at least 3 aircraft carriers, 4 nuke subs, and increasing JSDF strength to 1.5x to what it is now.

[Philip]

Japan going nuclear-weapon state that is,is inevitable.It cannot for ever rely upon an ally like the US who in recent times has been afraid of even launching an "unbelievably small ,limited attack" against Syria! With such wimps as allies,despite its overwhelming technological superiority in military wares,Japan will have to look to its own defence and new similarly-threatened nations by China as allies (like India).Japan could go nuclear within months.They have the material and tech capability to do so.One would not be surprised if they already had such plans on hand to be used in an extreme crisis where the US fails to arrive.

Japan's large LRMP force,over 100 aircraft,plus more modern conventional subs than China,should give them the naval advantage.In addition,the new flat top helicopter-DDGs,actually light carriers that can operate JSFs ,will surely in the future see larger 45K-65K t carriers arrive. Building N-subs however will be a task for japan,unless the USN leases some its elderly LA class SSNs.This would be a major political decision as the USN has never leased its N-subs to any ally.Pak was leased the Ghazi by the US which the IN sank in '71.It would take a while for it to build N-subs,during which time it could build more AIP subs ,equipped with land attack missiles,to increase its inventory to deal with China, striking at China's naval bases and chief ports.

meanwhile,how the PRC are parking the ill-gotten gains of their crony Zhongnanhai leadership and major cos. in tax havens in the Caribbean!

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/j ... -caribbean

Chinese oil giants make use of offshore shell companies in Caribbean
Secret financial records link scandal-hit oil companies to dozens of offshore entities, many of them undeclared

http://warnewsupdates.blogspot.in/2014/ ... ed-up.html

Thursday, January 23, 2014
How China's Oligarchs Quietly Stashed Up To $4 Trillion In The Caribbean

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China's princelings storing riches in Caribbean offshore haven

Relatives of political leaders including China's current president and former premier named in trove of leaked documents from the British Virgin Islands

By James Ball and Guardian US Interactive Team

More than a dozen family members of China's top political and military leaders are making use of offshore companies based in the British Virgin Islands, leaked financial documents reveal.

The brother-in-law of China's current president, Xi Jinping, as well as the son and son-in-law of former premier Wen Jiabao are among the political relations making use of the offshore havens, financial records show.
The former central bank governor's son-in-law
Che Feng is the son-in-law of China's former central bank governor Dai Xianglong. An insurance executive, Che was involved in a purchase of an insurance company while Dai was still governor, though told the New York Times he never held a personal stake.
Graphic shows senior Chinese figures and their relatives with offshore connections. There is no indication the leadership figures had any involvement in or awareness of the family members' financial activities.

The documents also disclose the central role of major Western banks and accountancy firms, including PricewaterhouseCoopers, Credit Suisse and UBS in the offshore world, acting as middlemen in the establishing of companies.

The Hong Kong office of Credit Suisse, for example, established the BVI company Trend Gold Consultants for Wen Yunsong, the son of Wen Jiabao, during his father's premiership — while PwC and UBS performed similar services for hundreds of other wealthy Chinese individuals.

The disclosure of China's use of secretive financial structures is the latest revelation from "Offshore Secrets", a two-year reporting effort led by the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ), which obtained more than 200 gigabytes of leaked financial data from two companies in the British Virgin Islands, and shared the information with the Guardian and other international news outlets.

In all, the ICIJ data reveals more than 21,000 clients from mainland China and Hong Kong have made use of offshore havens in the Caribbean, adding to mounting scrutiny of the wealth and power amassed by family members of the country's inner circle.

As neither Chinese officials nor their families are required to issue public financial disclosures, citizens in the country and abroad have been left largely in the dark about the elite's use of offshore structures which can facilitate the avoidance of tax, or moving of money overseas. Between $1tn and $4tn in untraced assets have left China since 2000, according to estimates.
China's inequality problem
Income inequality is a mounting issue in China, a consequence of the country's rapid growth. A Beijing university study suggests that income at the richest 5th percentile are 34 times higher than those of the bottom 5th percentile.

China's rapid economic growth is leading to a degree of internal tension within the nation, as the proceeds of the country's newfound prosperity are not evenly divided: the country's 100 richest men are collectively worth over $300bn, while an estimated 300m people in the country still live on less than $2 a day. The Chinese government has made efforts to crack down citizens' movements aimed at promoting transparency or accountability among the country's elite.

The confidential records obtained by the ICIJ relate to the incorporation and ownership of offshore companies, which is legal, and give little if any information as to what activities the businesses were used for once established. Offshore companies can be an important tool for legitimate Chinese businesses, especially when operating overseas, due to restrictions and legislation in the country.

One Chinese political family whose financial affairs have not escaped scrutiny — at least in the west — is that of the former premier, Wen Jiabao. In November, the New York Times reported that a consultancy firm operated by Wen's daughter, who often goes by the name Lily Chang, had been paid $1.8m by the US financial services giant JPMorgan.
A former premier, a banking regulator and a venture capitalist
Liu Chunhang is the son-in-law of former premier Wen Jiabao, and the husband of Wen's daughter Lily Chang. He currently works for China's banking regulator, and is a former Morgan Stanley employee.

Wen Yunsong is the son of Wen Jiabao. Educated in the USA, at Northwestern University, he is a venture capitalist, and current chairman of a state-owned satellite services company.

The payment has become one of the targets of a probe by US authorities into the activities of JPMorgan in China, including an examination of the firm's hiring practices, which are alleged to have included the deliberate targeting of relatives of influential officials.

However, the ICIJ files reveal the role of the BVI's offshore secrecy in obscuring Chang's links with her consulting firm, Fullmark Consultants. The company was set up in the BVI by Chang's husband, Liu Chunhang, in 2004, and he remained as sole director and shareholder until 2006, when he took a job in China's banking regulation agency.

Nominal ownership of the firm was transferred at that time to Zhang Yuhong, a Wen family friend, who the New York Times reported had connections with the Wen family's business interests.

The company established for Chang's brother Wen Yunsong, with the aid of Credit Suisse, was dissolved in 2008, with little hint as to its purpose or activities in the two years it was operational. One purpose for such companies is to allow for the establishment of bank accounts in the company's name, a legal measure that nonetheless makes tracing of assets a more complicated task.

No members of the Wen family, nor Zhang, responded to any of multiple approaches for comment, made over a period of several weeks by ICIJ reporters.

However, in a recent letter dated December 27th apparently sent to a Hong Kong columnist amid public anti-corruption probes into other former officials, Wen Jiabao is reported to have denied any wrongdoing during his premiership, or in how his family obtained their reported wealth.

"I have never been involved and would not get involved in one single deal of abusing my power for personal gain because no such gains whatsoever could shake my convictions," he is reported to have written.

A spokesman for Credit Suisse refused to comment on any specific case or client, but said the bank had "detailed procedures for dealing with politically exposed persons" which complies with money laundering regulations in Switzerland and elsewhere.

"Credit Suisse is required by Swiss law to uphold bank client confidentiality and is therefore unable to comment on this matter," he said. "In the absence of any further information, the media cannot be certain that they have a full understanding of the matter. As a result, they will not be able to portray it accurately or objectively."
The president and a businessman
Deng Jiagui is a businessman who became the brother-in-law of China's current president Xi Jinping when he married his older sister in 1996. His background is in the tobacco industry, but he and his wife currently own luxury property across China and Hong Kong.

The ICIJ records also detail a company connected to Deng Jiagui, the husband of the older sister of Xi Jinping, China's president, who has cultivated a public image as an anti-corruption campaigner. According to the BVI records, Deng, a real-estate developer and investor, owns a 50% stake in the BVI-incorporated Excellence Effort Property Development. Ownership of the remainder of the company traces back to two Chinese property tycoons, who last year won a $2bn real estate bid.

Other "princelings" — a widely-used term for the families of China's political elite — with offshore ties include: Li Xiaolin, a senior executive in one of China's state-owned power firms and the daughter of former premier Li Peng; Wu Jianchang, the son-in-law of China's late "paramount leader" Deng Xiaoping; and Hu Yishi, a cousin of former president Hu Jintao.

China's political elite were not the only individuals taking advantage of the BVI's offshore anonymity. At least 16 of China's richest people, with a combined estimated net worth in excess of $45bn, were found to have connections with companies based in the jurisdiction.

Among those was Huang Guangyu, the founder of China's largest electronics retailer and once the country's richest man. Huang and his wife had a network of more than 30 companies in the BVI, according to the ICIJ records. Huang subsequently fell from grace and was in 2010 sentenced to 14 years in prison for insider trading and bribery.

Despite his imprisonment, Huang's offshore network is not standing idle. In 2011, one of his BVI firms made an unsuccessful bid for the Ark Royal, the retired aircraft carrier which was once the flagship of the British navy. According to press reports, Huang planned to turn the carrier into a shopping mall, but navy officials decided instead to scrap the ship.
Shareholders of offshore companies
China has become a vital client for offshore jurisdictions. The ICIJ's databse of offshore owners and shareholders has six times as many addresses tied to China or Hong Kong than it does to the USA.

In total, the ICIJ database — which covers just two of the BVI's numerous incorporation agencies — lists more than 21,000 addresses in China or Hong Kong as directors or shareholders of offshore companies, demonstrating the country's status as one of the premier buyers of offshore services. In recent years, offshore jurisdictions have aggressively courted the Chinese market, with many opening offices and promotional sites in Hong Kong.

The BVI's courtship of China's rich and powerful may prove an embarrassment for the United Kingdom. The BVI remains a British overseas territory, and while largely independent in practice, UK authorities retain a degree of responsibility and connection with the islands.

The UK's Prime Minister David Cameron has publicly pledged to take action against offshore secrecy and offshore tax avoidance, including in crown protectorates such as Jersey and Guernsey, and overseas territory, meaning further exposure of the role of the BVI could prove a political embarrassment.

The role of major Western financial institutions in establishing offshore structures has also attracted scrutiny, despite being a routine and entirely legal function for many of them.

The ICIJ records show both PricewaterhouseCoopers and UBS had extensive contacts with incorporation agents in the BVI and other territories in the region. In total, UBS helped incorporate more than 1,000 offshore institutions for clients from China, Hong Kong or Taiwan, while PwC had a role in establishing at least 400.

Both PricewaterhouseCoopers and UBS declined to comment on any specifics regarding their activities in the BVI, or with China's rich. However, spokesmen for both companies said their activities complied with appropriate law and ethical codes.

"As a matter of policy, PwC member firms do not comment about clients or their business," said a spokesman for PwC China.

"PwC's tax advisory practice helps our clients make informed business decisions, balance their responsibilities to do the right thing for multiple stakeholders, often across many countries, and meet their tax requirements."

A UBS spokesman said: "We operate to the highest standards in our business operations to meet all our legal and regulatory requirements."

The amassed wealth and alleged corruption among China's political elite has been a topic of growing interest not only in the Western media, but also — to a limited extent — within China itself.

Spurred on by President Xi's public statements around anti-corruption efforts, a Chinese academic and activist, Xu Zhiyong, inspired a "New Citizens' Movement" in the country — an informal civil society group which among other goals aims to increase the financial transparency of the country's elite and curbing corruption.

The movement, however, has faced strong opposition from Chinese authorities. Numerous participants in the New Citizens Movement have been arrested at public gatherings, while its founder Xu is in prison facing charged of "gathering a crowd to disrupt public order", and faces up to five years in prison. Meanwhile, international journalists who have reported from within the country on the wealth of China's political elite have faced immigration difficulties from the government, or trouble with authorities.

⋅ Read the ICIJ's full report of the latest offshore links.

[SSridhar]

Japan Tells World to Stand up to China or Face Consequences - Japan Times

DAVOS, SWITZERLAND – Japan on Wednesday told the world it must stand up to an increasingly assertive China or risk a regional conflict with catastrophic economic consequences.

In his speech to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe issued what amounted to an appeal for international support in a potentially explosive dispute with its superpower neighbour over islands in the East China Sea. Abe was Japan’s first prime minister to deliver a keynote speech at the main session of the annual forum.

“We must restrain military expansion in Asia … which otherwise could go unchecked,” Abe told the annual meeting of global business and political leaders, which Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi is due to attend on Friday.

“If peace and stability were shaken in Asia, the knock-on effect for the entire world would be enormous,” Abe added.

“The dividend of growth in Asia must not be wasted on military expansion.”

Although Abe did not explicitly mention China, his speech had been flagged up in advance by Japanese officials as an alarm call to an influential audience over what Tokyo sees as bullying by Beijing.

The dispute over the uninhabited but potentially mineral-rich Senkaku islands is being played out against a backdrop of Japanese fears that China is seeking to exert control over lifeline shipping lanes around its vast coastline and that the United States’ commitment to guarantee Japan’s security is waning.

Tensions over the Senkakus, which China refers to as the Diaoyus, have come perilously close to boiling over into armed clashes on several occasions in recent years.

They resurfaced last month when Abe visited the Yasukuni shrine, a memorial to Japan’s war dead which is controversial because a handful of convicted war criminals are among those commemorated.

Abe stressed Japan “has sworn an oath never again to wage a war,” trying to brush off concern that his shrine visit suggests he is unrepentant about the country’s past militaristic aggressions.

Abe, however, defended the visit, saying his “praying for the souls of the departed” should be regarded as “something quite natural for a leader of any country in the world” while emphasising he had no intention of hurting Chinese or Korean feelings.

[SSridhar]

The Hindu questions, in an editorial today, as to why Oil exploration in India should be denied to the Chinese on security concerns

None of those who commented on that agreed with this naive and dangerous suggestion.

[JE Menon]

This is what I posted as a comment, not expecting it to go in... But let's see. Last time I was positively surprised:

"...Pakistan where apparently China is engaged in different projects". Apparently? Unless you are pretending to be blind, the reality that the Chinese are all over the parts of Kashmir occupied by Pakistan is blindingly obvious. The Pakistanis themselves report it.

Nor is it ambiguous that China is opposing Indian joint oil exploration activity with Vietnam. The reality that Chinese state-owned companies are involved in intelligence activities is no secret, and the Chinese themselves are often brazen enough to not bother to hide it.

If the "truth to tell" is that not many companies are lining up to explore & produce oil in India, the correct move would be to make it possible for such companies to do so, and whittle out those that are not conducive to our interests. In that case, the Chinese would be at the top of the pruning list.

All in all, a sly and dishonest editorial which appears to be the norm in terms of any commentary about or related to China by "The Hindu".

[SSridhar]

JEM, your comment has not yet appeared, but Carl's has. I have also posted there (but that was sent early in the morning)

[JE Menon]

Maybe I cut too close to the bone... I've only had one comment ever appearing in the online Hindu, out of I don't know how many I've sent in. Still, after all the changes there, there may be a chance...

[Mahesh_R]

Japan Tells World to Stand up to China or Face Consequences - Japan Times

This is the opp for India to ask Japan to stop all the fatherly support they had been doing to TSP...
Atleast in their case the enemy is NOT stupid.. but in out case he is stupid, arrogant, naga and booka..

May be the Indian High Commissioner to Japan should meet their MEA privately and convey the msg how it feels ..
I don't understand why we are not able to exert pressure ..where we can.. we just stand there like a fool ..
I am not saying we will join Jpan to oppose chin.. but atleast strike the neutral member to come on our side when they are emotionally weak.. we could easily create situations and make them understand what we are going thru.... we do have tonnes and tonnes of evidence to prove the same.....

[SSridhar]

Border Defence Cooperation Agreement (BDCA) - An Icebreaker in the Making ? - Bijoy Das, IDSA

[JE Menon]

Looks like (as is the norm) they've not put my comment in. Not surprising.

[SSridhar]

China Warns Foreign Planes Entering its ADZ - AP, ToI

China says it has begun issuing warnings to foreign military planes entering its self-declared air defense zone over the East China Sea that has been blamed for raising tensions in the region.

State media quotes air force spokesman Shen Jinke as saying that multiple types of Chinese planes recently conducted a long-range patrol inside the sweeping zone that was declared in November.

Shen said the Chinese planes identified a number of foreign military aircraft, flew alongside them and issued warnings to them. He didn't identify the planes or say when the patrol was conducted.

The US, Japan and other countries denounced the zone's declaration as provocative and said they would ignore China's demands that their military aircraft announce flight plans, identify themselves and follow Chinese instructions.

[SSridhar]

Looks like (as is the norm) they've not put my comment in. Not surprising.

JEM, surprisingly, they have been publishing mine regularly (after the change at the top) but I do send them in by 10 AM IST. This is happening even in the Tamil edition of The Hindu.

[JE Menon]

OK, next time I'll try that

[SSridhar]

Russia, China Warships Launch 1st Joint Drill in Mediterranean - The Hindu

After a similar exercise last July in the Sea of Japan, within hours after the joint naval exercises ended, Russia conducted a surprise land warfare exercise at the Chinese border involving 160,000 troops, 1,000 tanks, 130 aircraft. The land warfare exercise along the Chinese border was also a symptom of the Russian fears of China as China still considers vast territories in the Russian Far East as unfairly annexed from it in the 19th century.

[SSridhar]

China-Japan Take Spat to Davos - Ananth Krishnan, The Hindu

Tensions between China and Japan over East China Sea islands and issues related to wartime history have made their presence felt half the world away, in the on-going World Economic Forum meet in Davos, where top leaders from both countries have traded barbs over recent disputes.

Earler this week, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who is currently in India on a three-day visit, told journalists in Davos that the current situation between China and Japan was similar to relations between Britain and Germany before the First World War.

His suggestion was that close economic links between China and Japan may not be reason enough to avert military tensions. {This is a valid point that has implications for us in the context of our relationships with both TSP & China}

Mr. Abe in a speech also alluded to the threat posed to the region by China’s growing military strength, saying the world needed to “restrain military expansion in Asia, which could otherwise go unchecked.”

‘Anachronistic’

On Friday, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi responded to Mr. Abe’s comments, saying the First World War reference was “anachronistic.”

He also hit out at the Japanese Prime Minister over his stance on wartime history. Mr. Abe angered China and Japan by becoming the first Japanese leader in seven years to pay tribute at the Yasukuni shrine, a memorial for Japanese civilian war dead that also enshrines 14 Class-A war criminals, responsible for atrocities committed under Japanese occupation during the Second World War.

“Reviewing these episodes of history would clearly show who was the instigator of war and the troublemaker,” Mr. Wang was quoted as saying in agency reports.

“When a Japanese leader lays a wreath at such a shrine, he crosses a line… [and] contesting the outcome of the second world war and the international order that emerged from it.”

Compared to Nazis

Mr. Wang even drew a parallel between the Class-A war criminals and Nazis.

“Could you imagine a European leader laying a wreath at a memorial to Nazi war criminals?” he said. “Would the European people accept such a move?”

[Christopher Sidor]

^^^^
So it is okie to lay wreath at memorial of a mass murderer, responsible for deaths of over 20 million. It is okie to build parks and monuments to such an individual. How can PRC and its citizens draw parallels to the nazis when their conduct is in certain cases worse than the nazis?

[Prem]

http://www.cfr.org/asia-and-pacific/do- ... sia/p32273
What to Do About Tensions in Asia

Experts discuss tensions in the Asia Pacific over disputed islands in the East China and South China seas, their impact on U.S. interests, and recommendations for U.S. policy in terms of preventing military escalation in the region and how to respond if prevention fails.

[SSridhar]

This is an incident that happened in the 1965 Republic Day Parade.
From The Hindu

Diplomat walks out

The Chinese Charge d’Affaires in New Delhi, along with his colleagues, on January 26 walked out of the Republic Day Parade as a “protest” against the citations read out at the special investiture held by President Radhakrishnan. The citations relating to the award of Param Vir Chakra to three army officers, two of them posthumously, spoke about their conspicuous acts of gallantry in Ladakh and NEFA during the Chinese invasion of 1962. As soon as the citations were read out, the Charge d’Affaires went up to the Chief of Protocol, Mr. S.K. Banerjee, and lodged a verbal protest against his having been invited to a function at which the citations were to be read out. The Chief of Protocol, it is learnt, told the Charge d’Affaires that he would not accept his verbal protest.

[SSridhar]

NightWatch for the night of January 27, 2014

China: On 26 January, three Chinese ships patrolled the James Shoal in the South China Sea, an area also claimed by Malaysia. The Chinese task group comprised the amphibious landing craft, Changbaishan, and two destroyers, state news agency Xinhua reported. "During the ceremony held in the Zengmu Reef area, soldiers and officers aboard swore an oath of determination to safeguard the country's sovereignty and maritime interests" Xinhua said. Zengmu Reef is the Chinese name for James Shoal. Xinhua said South Sea Fleet commander Vice Admiral Jiang Weilie "urged soldiers and officers to always be prepared to fight, improve combat capabilities and lead the forces to help build the country into a maritime power". According to news reports, last March, Malaysia protested the incursion of four Chinese ships in James Shoal, about 80 km (50 miles) off the Malaysian state of Sarawak on western Borneo Island. Chinese sailors fired guns in the air during the visit to the shoal. In April 2013, a Chinese maritime surveillance ship returned to James Shoal and left behind markers of China's claim.

Comment: This is the same task group that left the Paracel Islands on 22 January to begin a long range patrol of Chinese claimed waters and islands. James Shoal is just off Borneo at the southern end of the South China Sea. The missions of this task group are demonstration and intimidation, not just patrol. Changbaishan is a large, modern landing ship with two destroyers as escorts. The Chinese navy is showing the flag and gratuitously inviting a fight.

[DavidD]

^^^^
So it is okie to lay wreath at memorial of a mass murderer, responsible for deaths of over 20 million. It is okie to build parks and monuments to such an individual. How can PRC and its citizens draw parallels to the nazis when their conduct is in certain cases worse than the nazis?

Mao delivered China from 100+ years of turmoil of which the Japanese was heavily involved, smashed the old Chinese society of heavy stratification with entrenched classes, and enacted land reforms. Today, China's life expectancy is 8 years higher than India, and that's the smallest margin in 40 years. That could not have been achieved without first becoming an independent, sovereign nation. Is it better to have 20 million deaths in one bath or to cut 8 years off every single person's life? Hint: China can kill 200 million people aged 30-50 today and still have a life expectancy higher than India's.

I'm not saying that the deaths of those 20 million somehow paved the way for salvation of 200 million in the future, but Mao did far more good for China than he did bad, even if he did plenty of bad. In other words, the man deserves a wreath. Japan, OTOH, set China back decades through its invasions, something that could be little made up by paltry sums of foreign aid and half-hearted apologies.

[Suraj]

Delivered China from 100+ years of turmoil ? Mao killed more in the next 25 years than all those who died in all the wars in the previous 100 years. Between 1958 and 1962 China's population fell by 30 million. That's not even 30 million killed, but 30 million living plus all the additional births in that period, adding up to the count of dead. The national population fell 1.5%, and urban population by around 10% . No one else - the Japanese, British and everyone else combined managed to come within a fraction of that kind of casualty count. China's redemption lies in waking up and acknowledging the monster within, not going in search of others to blame.

[member_19686]

Resident Mao apologist again, it was Japan's great folly to have issued even a single apology to PRC & pumped in all that aid + investment, hope they realize it now.

Mao was a mass murdering Han imperialist scumbag & his glorification tells me something about the Han imperialist mindset, its tendency to wreak havoc & genocide on weak parties like Mongols, Tibetans, & Uighurs while portraying the Han as victims. The Han massacred more Tibetans as a proportion of the Tibetan population than the Han killed by the Japanese invasion. One can only imagine what they did to the Uighurs & Mongols (remember they even wanted to colonize Mongolia when Baron von Ungren Sternberg drove them out & restored Mongol independence, none of the Western powers which would be so worked up about Japan's invasion of China said a word about this blatant Chinese imperialist land grab attempt).

Such a great chap that Mao fellow:

Mao’s legacy in Tibet

http://www.tchrd.org/2013/12/maos-legacy-in-tibet/

[Christopher Sidor]

^^^^
So it is okie to lay wreath at memorial of a mass murderer, responsible for deaths of over 20 million. It is okie to build parks and monuments to such an individual. How can PRC and its citizens draw parallels to the nazis when their conduct is in certain cases worse than the nazis?

Mao delivered China from 100+ years of turmoil of which the Japanese was heavily involved, smashed the old Chinese society of heavy stratification with entrenched classes, and enacted land reforms.

Japan first invaded Manchuria in 1931, before that there were no significant Japanese soldiers on the mainland. Yes China had to undergo wars with the western imperialist powers, UK, France included, but not with Japan.
Yes Mao smashed the old heavy stratification of society, and introduced in its place a new stratification. One of the party members+their family members, two of the cornies of these party members and thirdly the rest. In PRC it is not what one knows but who one knows that is more important.
And there was no land reforms under Mao, rather under Mao the world's second largest land grab happened, next only to what happened in Soviet Union under Stalin.

Today, China's life expectancy is 8 years higher than India, and that's the smallest margin in 40 years. That could not have been achieved without first becoming an independent, sovereign nation.

That did not happen in Mao's rule, that happened later on, after Mao was through wreaking havoc. I agree that PRC's life expectancy could not rise without it becoming an independent, sovereign nation. But what PRC had to undergo is too a high price.

Is it better to have 20 million deaths in one bath or to cut 8 years off every single person's life? Hint: China can kill 200 million people aged 30-50 today and still have a life expectancy higher than India's.

So does that mean it better to live under a autocratic rule or a single party rule if the single party provides high living of standard and better life expectancy? Let us ask the victims of mao whether they would agree. These justifications are fine when one does not have to suffer. But if one is part of the 20 million death or near to death then ones view point is different. There is a caveat over here, people have to have the capability to speak their hearts and minds freely without some minders watching over them.

I'm not saying that the deaths of those 20 million somehow paved the way for salvation of 200 million in the future, but Mao did far more good for China than he did bad, even if he did plenty of bad. In other words, the man deserves a wreath. Japan, OTOH, set China back decades through its invasions, something that could be little made up by paltry sums of foreign aid and half-hearted apologies.

I disagree. Mao did worse, much worse than Stalin was for Soviet Union or Imperial Japan was to China. Japan's invasion was restricted to the sea facing Japan. In the interior of PRC, in the central part Japan never reached. Moreover till 1937 Japan was restricted to Manchuria, the north-west part of PRC. From 1937 Imperial Japan did carry out invasion of PRC but then also its sway was never over the whole of PRC. Contrast this with the effect of Mao and his policies, which wrecked lives all over PRC. There is not one part of PRC which was spared. This was not the case of Imperial Japan.

When I hear and see Chinese defending Mao, I am reminded about people in India who still defend another genocidal leader, Jinnah. And they jump through loops and convoluted explanations for this. About how Jinnah was secular, hell Saddam was secular, but he still gassed his people.

[Christopher Sidor]

^^^^
DavidD I do not disagree with you holding the view that Mao was good for PRC. One is entitled to his or her views. We after all live in a free world.

[Suraj]

There's a method to the Chinese madness. It's a calibrated act of presenting the appearance of an unhinged lunatic. They depend upon the 'civilized' response of the other party to get their goals, without any regard for appearing like an uber-NoKo in the process. A defensive response to such a posture from them is not supportable . I don't think they give a damn about Japan apologizing. The whole thing is a calibrated act of brinkmanship. Japan's correct response is ignore them and continue to do the same aggravating acts.

It is a more proven response to act equally bellicose in response. It leads them to back down. Previously, whenever India acted aggressively, they quickly changed gears and Xinhua et al wrote op-eds talking about how the Indian Army is being provocative and that the calm polity needs to rein them in.

It must be GoI's policy to maintain a dual track, of a good cop or bad cop, with one set of candidates - typically the highest level of the firmament - playing the good cops, and multiple credible lower level parties playing the sharp edge of the spear bad cops - MEA/MHA spokespersons and/or the CoAS. This requires robust leadership at the top to do, and hopefully will be the case after the coming elections.

[Anand K]

Reagan played this game very well - even the rest of his team like Weinberger, Kirkpatrick, Haig etc cultivated the Desperado image. The Russians were actually scared that this administration might actually do something rash. Especially after something so "mild and tottering" like the Carter administration. Longshots like Star Wars and heightened sabre-rattling also made the Soviets go berserk and spend their way to oblivion.

[Prem]

Shifting Sand
Japan: Report of Possible Talks With North Korea to Thaw Ties

Japanese and North Korean officials may have held secret talks over the weekend in Vietnam, Kyodo News reported Tuesday, in an attempt to thaw frozen ties between the two nations. The Japanese news agency cited an unnamed Japanese diplomat as saying officials from the two nations were in Hanoi on Saturday and Sunday and may have met there. However, the top Japanese government spokesman, Yoshihide Suga, denied Tuesday that a meeting had taken place. Japan cut off talks in 2012 after North Korea launched a rocket over Japan.