Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 20 Jan 2014 15:28

Anmol, wow.

Thats Tejpal right there. So Naresh Trehan is hubbie of MT, never knew. All connections indeed.

anmol · Post by **anmol** » 20 Jan 2014 15:30

Karan M wrote:Anmol, wow.

Thats Tejpal right there. So Naresh Trehan is hubbie of MT, never knew. All connections indeed.

The guy who took that pic is Mihir Shrama(check out his tweets).... guy is RABIDLY anti Modi.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 20 Jan 2014 15:31

Incredible...thanks Anmol.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 20 Jan 2014 15:33

Basically to be "in" with this crowd of movers & shakers, you have to have certain pedigree, certain political views and certain connections. And of course, once you are in, you wouldnt want out.

Also explains the visceral hatred against BJP/Modi - "not people like us"..

prahaar · Post by **prahaar** » 20 Jan 2014 15:40

Karan M wrote:Basically to be "in" with this crowd of movers & shakers, you have to have certain pedigree, certain political views and certain connections. And of course, once you are in, you wouldnt want out.

Also explains the visceral hatred against BJP/Modi - "not people like us"..

Occasional mutants like Arun Shourie and defectors like Tavleen Singh have led to realization of existence of such groups. Before that most mango public was not aware about this durbar culture (at least yours truly was not, yes, everyone can say "yeh PSPO nahi jaanta").

Lilo · Post by **Lilo** » 20 Jan 2014 15:40

Nice pics anmol ji,
He gora guy on the phloor(black shirt) is none other than William Daralympelyll - the "eminent" gora historian who descended from Briturdia to teach Yindoos their History.

member_28352 · Post by **member_28352** » 20 Jan 2014 15:44

One thought that I always have. It is not the case that there won't be another class of elite when the BJP comes to power. My suggestion is then to move parts of the Indian establishment to other cities for a more balanced and participative power structure. So Supreme Court could be moved to Kolkata. The embassies can remain in Delhi. The legislature can move to Nagpur. Some ministries should also be shifted to other cities. Something like this is already done in South Africa.

anmol · Post by **anmol** » 20 Jan 2014 15:47

Lilo wrote:Nice pics anmol ji,
He gora guy on the phloor(black shirt) is none other than William Daralympelyll - the "eminent" gora historian who descended from Briturdia to teach Yindoos their History.

Lady in lower right corner of first picture is tejpal's wife.
Lady who is sitting on that green sofa with tejpal works for NDTV(i think)
In second pic that lady in pink is also somebody important but I dont remember her name..(anyone knows her name?)
Guy who is taking pic in first picture is Manu Joseph(open mag, NYT)

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 20 Jan 2014 16:07

Manu Joseph as well? LOL - entire "secular" cabal indeed.

And they all write similar opeds & enjoy access to media as if they were all independent thinkers in order to shape the discourse.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 20 Jan 2014 16:07

prahaar wrote:Occasional mutants like Arun Shourie and defectors like Tavleen Singh have led to realization of existence of such groups. Before that most mango public was not aware about this durbar culture (at least yours truly was not, yes, everyone can say "yeh PSPO nahi jaanta").

exactly.. i purchased darbar and its quite interesting.

Rahul Mehta · Post by **Rahul Mehta** » 20 Jan 2014 16:34

http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes ... endra-modi

No objection to Article 370 if it helps J&K develop: Rajnath Singh

NEW DELHI: Reflecting a change in stance, BJP president Rajnath Singh on Saturday said his party has no objection to Article 370 which grants special status to Jammu & Kashmir if it helps in the development of the state. "J&K is a very serious, very sensitive region for us ... If J&K develops because of Article 370, then we have no objection in keeping it," he said in his inaugural addresses at the two-day National Executive meet of the party.

This marks a change in BJP's stand as it has been consistently demanding repeal of the Article and has aggressively campaigned for it. However, in a bid to not appear as giving up the issue, Rajnath Singh went on to add that if the Article 370 was a "conspiracy" to stop the state from joining Indian mainstream, then his party would not accept it under any circumstances.

The party's prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi had earlier last month stated at a rally in Jammu that there should be at least a debate on whether or not Article 370 has benefitted the state. "As per Constitution, the debate will continue whether the Article 370 should end or continue - at least there should be debate whether Article 370 has benefitted J&K or not," the Gujarat chief minister had said at the rally on December one.

BJP had then rejected suggestions that Modi had softened the party's stand on the issue. "It would be incorrect for anyone to interpret BJP's challenge for a debate on this issue as a softening of stand on Article 370," Leader of Opposition in Rajya Sabha Arun Jaitley had said. BJP has long kept its demand of Article 370's abrogation on the back burner in its quest for allies, who have been wary of its hardline stand, and the elevation of Modi had fuelled concerns that BJP would revert to its original demand under his command.

=================== end of newspaper news ================

So what is next? BJP will support Go-Hatya if it increases growth? BJP will make Kashmir independent as USA has been demanding, if that raises US investments in India and raises growth? BJP will support of seccession of Manipur, Nagaland etc if Missionarues invest $200 billion in rest of India to promote growth? BJP will supprt missionaries cross India if they invest $200 billion more to promote growth? And BJP will let Asam become part of Bangladeshi if Saudi Arabia agrees to give 10% discount on oil, because cheaper oil will promote growth? And how about rebuilding babri mosque for growth?

So folks, wake and smell coffee. It is NOT about muslims votes , but Saud money. Muslims will never voted for BJP. Its all about Saud money i.e. Saud money coming to media. Let me explain.

The Saudies pay loads of money to paid-Rajdeep Sardesi etc. And they have promoted AAP to a level that AAP can take away crores of middle class voters away from BJP. The recent delhi anshan fiasco may change the scene, but scene till recently was tense for BJP. And so BJP is offered a deal by Saudies ---- cool down your stand on art-370, RJB, go-hatya, UCC etc etc. All in all, AAP threat is working on BJP. One by one, BJP is making all issues orphans.

Those who wish to repeal art-370 should start looking beyod BJP.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 20 Jan 2014 16:50

BJP will need atleast 10 years to destroy INC system and also devlop our economy and Defense forces. Once security due to Pakistan is no longer a threat due to internal disintegration and our GDP is 60-70% of US an CHinese GDP, core issues of RAM temple and Art 370 with POK intergration into India.

They are too weak to go after Art 370 and RAM temple at this stage. If we are strong enough Ram Temple an be built with Saudi favorable Fatwah.

sum · Post by **sum** » 20 Jan 2014 16:54

5.03 pm: Why celebrate Republic Day? asks AAP AAP ministers have made it clear that they won't move their protest to Jantar Mantar. Arvind Kejriwal said, "What is the point of celebrating Republic Day when women are getting raped in Delhi. If our dharna is hampering preparations, Centre is responsible." Somnath Bharti, toeing party line said there is no need to celebrate republic day.

Rahul Mehta · Post by **Rahul Mehta** » 20 Jan 2014 16:56

Aditya_V wrote:BJP will need atleast 10 years to destroy INC system and also devlop our economy and Defense forces. Once security due to Pakistan is no longer a threat due to internal disintegration and our GDP is 60-70% of US an CHinese GDP, core issues of RAM temple and Art 370 with POK intergration into India.

They are too weak to go after Art 370 and RAM temple at this stage. If we are strong enough Ram Temple an be built with Saudi favorable Fatwah.

Congress said same things in late 1980s, that we should focus FIRST on economy ONLY, and once economy is strong, we can remove art-370 , have UCC, built RJB etc.

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 20 Jan 2014 17:23

Karan M wrote:Basically to be "in" with this crowd of movers & shakers, you have to have certain pedigree, certain political views and certain connections. And of course, once you are in, you wouldnt want out.

Also explains the visceral hatred against BJP/Modi - "not people like us"..

Isn't it a bit rich by Madhu Trehan when she calls newslaundry as news with difference? Besides the other guy in Newslaundry is Abhinandan Sekri who is through and through leftist. Besides he recently joined AAP.

The pic that Anmol ji posted when it came out on twitter, Trehan could not really explain why she was friendly with Dalrymple when she kept questioning his motives when on newslaundry.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 20 Jan 2014 18:00

Rahul Mehta ji,

Check out this post from me. It talks about Progressive Liberation of Rashtra.

I often feel your argumentation simply ignores "the process". There are things we need to do now and there are things that have to come later.

Your advice is to leave Nehruvianism as it is until
1) "Bharatiyas have agreed on all Drafts you've in mind" and once that is the case, then
2) all by magic one would be able to make these perfect drafts into perfect laws, and then
3) everybody in the executive would be implementing these laws in their spirit and letter.

In order to appeal to this route, you bring in a lot of issues which are at heart of the jingos here.

I don't see any sense in this methodology.

As NaMo said, we don't need just a Bill, we need Dil, we need Will to do.

This is like a 4x400 meter relay. In the next 15 years NaMo would take India to a certain position - economically, militarily and technologically strong. He would have made Hindutva attractive. He would have reduced foreign influence in India. He would have reconnected present India with civilizational Bharat.

From him, that is all one can expect and hope for. I don't want him to do any less. But I also do not want him to try anything more! If he tries anything more than that, he would fail in providing even that what we all hope of him.

After NaMo, more Hindutvavadis would come onto the scene who would make NaMo look like a left liberal. Then it would be their day. They'll take a developed India and a surging Hindutva and make a lot more out of it.

abhik · Post by **abhik** » 20 Jan 2014 18:01

RNS's statement on article 370 is indeed unfortunate. NaMo in J&K had claim it is actually holding back the state. And now a complete reversal on a "core issue". Are they poll alliance negotiations with PDP/NC or something?

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 20 Jan 2014 18:04

abhik wrote:RNS's statement on article 370 is indeed unfortunate. NaMo in J&K had claim it is actually holding back the state. And now a complete reversal on a "core issue". Are they poll alliance negotiations with PDP/NC or something?

+1.

Need clarity on this ASAP. If RNS has indeed said this, then why? Is nationalism also negotiable now? Why RNS, better it be that NM give clarity by way of an explanation for what this means, I say...

And here's a pic of NM meeting KPs in Delhi. The KPs protested at Jantar Mantar the 24th anniversary of the dark day they were driven out of the valley (19-jan-1990 'twas)...

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 20 Jan 2014 19:39

Team NM can also think about messaging channels, real chaiwala speak.. as I said earlier, IR is a fantastic network route to reach people.. just one train, few chaiwalas goes coach by coach to sell chai and ideology.

similarly, think about who all reach people at all places?
- postmen
- courier boys
- market research people
- public service points
- sauchalya points
- sports events
- schools and colleges
- temples and religious gathering
- traffic places [without blocking, one could show placards]
- various chai packaging products
- chai chewing gum
- chai candies
- chai biskoots

johneeG · Post by **johneeG** » 20 Jan 2014 19:42

abhik wrote:RNS's statement on article 370 is indeed unfortunate. NaMo in J&K had claim it is actually holding back the state. And now a complete reversal on a "core issue". Are they poll alliance negotiations with PDP/NC or something?

Yep, this is a reversal of stand on a core issue, if he indeed made such a statement. To say that core issues can wait till Bhaarath achieves some xyz trillion economy or some such thing is just not on. Mehta saar is right, the same thing was said during UPA's first term.

If they can reverse their stand on a core issue just like that, what stops them from making further compromises? It is precisely this sort of behaviour that cost them after the NDA rule. Bajpayee's rule was just a sanitized version of kongi rule...a little less corruption... a little more development...but no structural changes to the system. If NaMo's rule is also going to be similar then that would be a tremendous failure on NaMo's and lotus' part.

Lotus should keep trying to achieve its core issues instead of abrogating them. Lotus should stop trying to become a mild version of kongis.

In Bajpayee regime, only Joshi tried to clean up the commie hijacking of school syllabi particularly history, but he was not completely successful(maybe because he didn't get the full backing).

krishnan wrote:they will stay back, maybe you are seeing rg take the PM seat in 10-15 years , who knowns , but i dont see them leave india

If NaMo regime also behaves like Bajpayee regime or Fordriwal regime, then they will stay. And why not? But if NaMo allows the law to take its course and lets investigation into all the scams, then they will scoot.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 20 Jan 2014 19:45

I think we should send a strong message to RNS/BJP via twitter and bombard them via email/FB/Twitter asking RNS to withdraw his statement publicly and maybe even apologize.

I am sending a message a right now.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 20 Jan 2014 20:32

muraliravi wrote:I think we should send a strong message to RNS/BJP via twitter and bombard them via email/FB/Twitter asking RNS to withdraw his statement publicly and maybe even apologize.

I am sending a message a right now.

I had sent a message

.@BJPRajnathSingh @narendramodi

Hs BJP diluted its stand on #Article370? This is unacceptable! If U can't pursue it don't but don't dilute!

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 20 Jan 2014 20:44

RajeshA wrote:
I had sent a message

@BJPRajnathSingh @narendramodi

Hs BJP diluted its stand on #Article370? This is unacceptable! If U can't pursue it don't but don't dilute!

Great Rajesh ji, I too sent messages and copied Niticentral and Kanchan Gupta too. This needs to go viral. People did have success in the past on 2 issues.

1. Namo stopped doing the Vande Mataram routine at the end of his rallies, people bombarded and he was back on track.
2. In Jammu, he did not mention KP issue, people really screaming on SM, he then tweeted for them.

We need to do this on this issue also. RNS needs to withdraw and apologize in 1 week max.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 20 Jan 2014 20:45

This is the reason I say, keep policy centric politics separate from politics centric policies.

any party can faulter if we don't have policy based governance especially dealing with security, defence, standards, institutions, infrastructure, and otehr national importance etc.

VinodTK · Post by **VinodTK** » 20 Jan 2014 21:02

Election Tracker: Modi upsurge in Bihar, Nitish struggles

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 20 Jan 2014 21:47

So if this is not a Modi wave, then what is.

Bihar 39% vote share and Jharkhand 40%. Even orissa at 25% single handedly. Kudos. UP will be stunning.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 20 Jan 2014 22:51

I was informed that Gujral was a close frind of NM and also NP and trying to win over the Odissa man to NM side. NP does not have muslim votes etc to worry about and NDA can help him to get what ever he need from Delhi. But I am not sure NP sees that reason. There was no logical reason or madness for him to cut the ties with BJP and he went ahead and did that. This indicates he may be cotrolled by some thing powerful. I wonder what?

I have been speaking with many UP fellows in MUMBAI city they all saying near 50 in UP with one Jat person given even 60. Most agree Maya and Modi will fight it out in UP and Maya can not win the seats with her vote bank alone. Serious FC and BC consolidation of Hindu nature is taking place there. Seems ShaH is doing good organising job.

I have already promissed party to people one if cross 50 and another if cross 60.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 20 Jan 2014 22:53

http://tamilnadu4modi.com

Very extensive to booth level.

VikramS · Post by **VikramS** » 20 Jan 2014 23:04

Guys, just because someone gets invited to a get together does not automatically make them suspect.

More importantly, people like MT who do raise important questions in NL, get greater credibility among a certain class of people.

For the posers to lose influence, it is important that their rank&file move to the center. In the short term, they have too many power centers backing them, for them to just disappear. They need to wither first.

krisna · Post by **krisna** » 20 Jan 2014 23:11

http://www.vigilonline.com/index.php?op ... Itemid=109

NaMo has written a chapter in this book on NGOs by Radha Rajan and Krishen Kak-- page 414 onwards.
free pdf download.

NGOs as Non-Accountable Businesses
by
Narendra Modi*
The topics discussed in this book are relevant in the present
times not only to India, but even to ‘developed’ countries, where
the whole business of NGOs started. Sometimes I call these ‘noble’
people five-star activists. If you study them closely you will
experience what I am saying. In America they are called limousine
liberals. In Europe there is a new word for them – just as there are
entrepreneurs in various sectors of business, the social service sector
is called the NGO industry.
Many new words are used to describe them but we should
make sure we do not measure all NGOs with the same yardstick.
As far as Bharat is concerned, this has been a shining tradition,
this has been an established strength. Even today, in any part of
Bharat, be it a shala, a mahashala, a gaushala, a dharamshala -
who runs it? In reality, a group of citizens, drawing strength from
social life, and dedicated to society, run these institutions. The term
NGO was never used for them, because the basis of their strength
was society. They drew their strength from society, and offered it
back in service to society.
Pilgrimage has been for ages a part of our social and cultural
lives. Yet, has anyone ever seen a a Kali Kamliwala
1
register in
any government office? There is no Kali Kamliwala register in any
government office. But there has been for centuries a tradition of
Kali Kamliwala - of serving pilgrims; taking care of their food,
shelter, warm clothing; in effect, of all their needs. I see in Gujarat,
especially in the Kachchh Kathiawar region that, within a distance
of 20-25 kilometers, somewhere you will find an annakshetra. Its
attempt is to ensure that no one, not even the poorest of the poor,
should sleep hungry. This dharmic tradition continues all over
India even today. But for this no NGO is registered. These are
dedicated people who work hard to serve society. I can tell you
from my experience of Gujarat that it is a leading state of India in
blood donation and eye donation. And all these traditions have
been maintained due to the conscientiousness of these social service
groups.
But, different from these, a new class has emerged, and it
needs to be understood through close scrutiny of its work. It is
wealthy and, therefore, it is influential. The time may have come
for political parties to hire PR personnel, but I have seen NGOs
who hire PR firms to continually build their image. They spend
money through PR firms to sustain their image, and the money
for this comes from governments, from abroad, and it comes in
the name of social service. We have seminars on poverty alleviation,
on rural development, to which these five-star activists are specially
invited. They travel business class, stay in five-star hotels, and read
from the same paper- of which they keep juggling paragraphs –
at some new place every other day.
Can we take a small collective decision that, to these seminars
on development, only those intellectuals should be invited who
have, in a year, stayed at least three days and nights, just three
days and nights, in a village where there is no electricity and where
they have to go to the jungle to relieve themselves? If such people
talk there will be substance to what they say. Can those people be
invited to these seminars who have made long journeys at least 5
or 7 times a year by public bus transport? How can they, who are
not grassroots people, guide society in solving problems faced by
it? Most activists belong to the category which have never been
to villages or travelled by public transport.
In our country, there was a time when a person wanting to
serve the country and society would join politics. At that time politics
had prestige. Due to the freedom movement, a tradition had been
established, and politics was considered an integral part of service
to country and society. Slowly, within 50 years of independence,
the way things changed, political leaders and governments
themselves took certain decisions, from which we have something
to learn in spite of the criticism of politics and politicians. Today,
in Hindustan, political parties have to submit their audited accounts
to the Election Commission. This was not so 20-25 years ago. Rules
had to be made. When an institution deteriorates, then there is
need to bring in changes in order to strengthen the institution.
When questions were raised about individuals, it was decided
within political parties that a candidate would have to submit details
of any criminal record at the time of nomination. When questions
arose about finance irregularities, a law was made making it
mandatory for a candidate seeking nomination to declare his
personal and family wealth. If he becomes a minister, he has to
submit details of his property every year. These rules have been
made in the last 20 years. They did not exist earlier.
If, in our country, deterioration crept into political life, and
all these restrictions were accepted, then why should we not make
accountable NGOs that in the name of social service are increasingly
developing and spreading as thriving businesses?
The accountability of political parties was decided by the
parties, the governments themselves. If political parties and elected
representatives are held accountable, then our country demands
that these agencies that receive thousands of crores of rupees should
also be held accountable. To win public confidence, any big company
entering the capital share market has to announce the tie-ups it
has with specific banks, with specific financial institutions. Is it
not then necessary that these NGOs on their letterpads should state
their financial sources? Today, we do not have any idea about the
financial resources of NGOs. Even governments will have to
consider to what extent the NGOs they are funding draw strength
from society - in the form of labour, money, or knowledge - or do
they take only from governments.
I belong to a small village. Some people there do seasonal
businesses. In the banana season, they sell bananas. Iin summer,
they sell ice lollies. In the kite-flying season, they sell kites. As
the season, so their product. In our country, there are NGOs that
likewise do seasonal businesses, who keep shop according to the
season. There are NGOs that work in the field of water resources
one year, and shift to education the next. When asked why, they
say that the government has stopped funds to water resources and
this year there are funds available in the field of education. Are
they all traders in monkeys? Bandar ke vyapari?
Another conspiracy- a vicious cycle is set up. Funds are
obtained from abroad; an NGO is set up; a few articles are
commissioned; a PR firm is recruited and, slowly, with the help
of the media, an image is created. And then awards are procured
from foreign countries to enhance this image. Such a vicious cycle,
a network of finance- activity- award is set up and, once they have
secured an award, no one in Hindustan dares raise a finger, no
matter how many the failings of the awardee.
How much of the money meant for the service sector, for the
poor, is spent by NGOs on their own establishment? You will see
senior bureaucrats travelling economy class, but not NGO activists.
To bring out these abuses, a plan is necessary; to bring out
the power of good people, an effort is necessary. The common person
does not even realize that the help reaching them is oftentimes
public money. They believe that the persons who come to them
representing a particular NGO are giving them these goods and
services generously from their own resources.
Here is a true story from Yugoslavia, from which you can
understand how these things affect our own society. A young man
fell in love with his penfriend. He used to correspond with her
regularly and was always eager to do something for her. They never
met but the friendship grew. The young man joined the army, and
spent all his money on sending her a gift every week. Though they
never met, marriage was discussed. Meanwhile, he kept sending
her gifts by post. After two years, a situation arose where the girl
married the postman, thinking he was the one bringing her the
gifts.
This is the condition of these NGOs.
Note
1. “There was a great saint in those days called Swami
Vishudanandaji Maharaj, usually called Baba Kala Kamliwale
because of the black blanket that he used to wear.....Pilgrims used
to walk on hard ground with pebbles and stones, with no footpath
worth the name, and there was no facility whatsoever, no halting
place on the way.....Swami Vishudanandaji Maharaj, Baba Kala
Kamliwale, observed the sorrows of these pilgrims. No water, no
food. It appears that he stood in the middle of that little shambles
of the so-called town of Rishikesh and insisted that some
arrangements be made for the poor pilgrims, and he appealed to
the well-to-do seths, marwaris, etc., that a chowkey (halting place)
should be built in Rishikesh, and food should be offered and also
facilities be provided on the way for taking rest at different
stopovers. This is the story behind the founding of what is called
today the Baba Kali Kamliwala Kshetra, where hundreds and
hundreds of sadhus are given free food” (
http://www.swami-
krishnananda.org/gurudev/gurudev_4.html).

member_20317 · Post by **member_20317** » 20 Jan 2014 23:12

Narayana Rao wrote:I was informed that Gujral was a close frind of NM and also NP and trying to win over the Odissa man to NM side. NP does not have muslim votes etc to worry about and NDA can help him to get what ever he need from Delhi. But I am not sure NP sees that reason. There was no logical reason or madness for him to cut the ties with BJP and he went ahead and did that. This indicates he may be cotrolled by some thing powerful. I wonder what?

Coal economics?

But smell test result says he will side both sides as and when it serves his purpose. I don't see him not playing ball. Congress his hell bent on besmirching his name in the coal mines issue. Zee News shows it all the time. Congress outed a letter that it had written to CMs of all states and have begun a false inquisition against any CM who did not advise restraint. Only hick is the letter was written on 16.01.14 or thereabout. Crazy people, how the hell would any CM say anything now. Now that everybody is busy in managing elections 2-3 months away. Who has time anyways with the courts looking into it and cancellations of allotments expected.

Vipin_Upadhyay · Post by **Vipin_Upadhyay** » 21 Jan 2014 00:10

per latest survey in CNNIBN, BJP is gaining big in Bihar riding on NaMo wave.

BJP can now emerge as main force, NiKu idiocy has proved a blessing for BJP.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 21 Jan 2014 02:28

Is it reasonable to predict, based on current sentiments, BJP will secure 225 to 250 seats?

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 21 Jan 2014 03:21

SwamyG wrote:Is it reasonable to predict, based on current sentiments, BJP will secure 225 to 250 seats?

As Muraliravi ji will say - NO. Too soon Saar. Let's keep the focus.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 21 Jan 2014 03:25

SwamyG wrote:Is it reasonable to predict, based on current sentiments, BJP will secure 225 to 250 seats?

My Prediction is

State-------------BJP---------------NDA------------Total
JK______________2_______________0______________6
PB______________3_______________7_____________13
HP______________3_______________0______________4
HR______________4_______________4_____________10
DL______________7_______________0______________7
RJ______________25______________0_____________25
GJ______________26______________0_____________26
UT______________4______________0______________5
UP______________50_____________0______________80
MP______________26_____________0______________29
CG_______________8_____________0______________11
BR_______________26____________0______________40
JH_______________11____________0_______________14
OR_______________2_____________0______________21
WB_______________2_____________0______________42
SK_______________0_____________1_______________1
AS_______________5_____________2______________14
AR_______________2_____________0_______________2
NL_______________0_____________1_______________1
MN_______________2_____________0_______________2
MZ_______________0_____________0_______________1
TR_______________0_____________0_______________2
ML_______________0_____________1_______________2
MH______________18____________18______________48
GA_______________2_____________0_______________2
KA_______________15____________0______________28
KL_______________3_____________2______________20
TN_______________2_____________5______________39
AP_______________8_____________13_____________42
CH_______________1_____________0_______________1
DD_______________1_____________0_______________1
DN_______________1_____________0_______________1
PY_______________0_____________1_______________1
LD_______________0_____________0_______________1
AN_______________1_____________0_______________1

BJP: 260
NDA (Pre-Poll): 55

NDA Govt would have 315/543
plus would be having AIADMK and BJD as extras

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 21 Jan 2014 03:30

RajeshA ji if this comes true I'll send a packet of besan laddoo to your home. Amen.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 21 Jan 2014 04:08

SwamyG wrote:Is it reasonable to predict, based on current sentiments, BJP will secure 225 to 250 seats?

225-250 is a bridge too far, at present anyway. 200-220 looks somewhat realistic at the moment.

RajeshA garu, 260 for lotus alone is way past lungi dance time..... I'd be surprised if pre-poll NDA gets to the 260 fig let alone lotus on its own.

AAPs self-destruction is a welcome development. Of course, who knows what else the turds have up their...err... sleeve but their spoiler value (a la PRP in '09 in AP) appears to have been dented by the excess nautanki we saw in Dilli y'day... we'll have to wait and see.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 21 Jan 2014 04:18

IndraD wrote:RajeshA ji if this comes true I'll send a packet of besan laddoo to your home. Amen.

Well if they're for free, then I'll take 2 packets.

Victor · Post by **Victor** » 21 Jan 2014 04:40

It is fine for BJP to say "we're OK with Art 370 if it helps J&K develop" because everybody knows that is virtually impossible. It is like asking J&K to hop with an iron ball chained to its legs while other Indian states are sprinting. Art 370 is the reason that J&K has the lowest development in infra, hospitals, schools, industry, jobs. As long as it stays, J&K will remain dependent on central doles and that too, mainly to maintain the army presence. The only way to really develop is to be integrated seamlessly and most sensible Kashmiris, Jammuites and Ladakhis who work and study in other parts of India know this.

Dissent against Art 370 must come from the people of J&K because most of all, it is a rotten deal for them. Let the BJP educate them on the truths since nobody else has the guts to do it. If there is unreasonable opposition from the peaceful community, let the dissent come first from Pandits, Jammuites and Ladakhis because they have had the worst of it. Note that no sooner had Namo mentioned womens' inequality in J&K--just one of the blatantly discriminatory laws completely out of sync with other states--Sunanda Tharoor, a Pandit, began to tweet loudly and Omar got completely tongue tied. This onion needs to be peeled slowly and it is being done. J&K is squarely in the sights.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 21 Jan 2014 04:50

Hari Seldon wrote:
SwamyG wrote:Is it reasonable to predict, based on current sentiments, BJP will secure 225 to 250 seats?
225-250 is a bridge too far, at present anyway. 200-220 looks somewhat realistic at the moment.

RajeshA garu, 260 for lotus alone is way past lungi dance time..... I'd be surprised if pre-poll NDA gets to the 260 fig let alone lotus on its own.

AAPs self-destruction is a welcome development. Of course, who knows what else the turds have up their...err... sleeve but their spoiler value (a la PRP in '09 in AP) appears to have been dented by the excess nautanki we saw in Dilli y'day... we'll have to wait and see.

Most other parties in India have only strong local candidates to fall back on. The traditional vote-banks would be working at their minimum capacity with quite a big part from them moving into the floating voter category.

Only very few parties could really claim any pro-incumbency wave - AIADMK in TN, BJD in OR, AITC in WB, CPI-M in Tripura. Congress in MZ and KA could also have some pro-incumbency.

Only challenger waves are NaMo, AAP and YSRCP, and AAP got two flat tyres yesterday!

Nowhere where BJP has to make a killing of seats is there is any other wave, pro-incumbency or challenger, except Delhi and Karnataka. BJP is riding the sole wave in most states.

So NaMo faces some challenge in

KA, ND, AP, TN, OR, WB, TR.
- In Karnataka, pro-incumbency is quite weak, BJP is re-consolidated with Yeddi back.
- In Delhi, Kejriwal put on a suicide belt and blew AAP in the air.
- In AP, mostly it would be TDP fighting it out with a semi-resurgent YSRCP, and BJP with ex-Congress leaders.
- In TN, a couple of seats depend on how DMDK decides.
- In OR and WB, 2-2 seats are doable, not expecting more.

Everywhere else NaMo has to maximize his own wave, energize his base there, make useful alliances and select the best candidates. There he can only lose if the core traditional base in a constituency is strongly locked in and other's incumbent candidate is solid.

All of these seats can be analyzed to see where NaMo cannot change much due to the two factors above. If the core traditional votebank of a party and candidate shrinks too much, then the Muslims too cannot really make much of a difference in many seats, where they are < 16-18%.

Anyway, only time will tell!