Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 20 Jan 2014 21:53

Is JH with or w/o INC-JMM alliance? Assam is worrisome. INC needs to be removed from there if it is to be prevented from being taken over by illegals. AGP seems to crumbling which is good as it will become INC vs BJP direct contest.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 20 Jan 2014 21:57

Supratik wrote:Is JH with or w/o INC-JMM alliance? Assam is worrisome. INC needs to be removed from there if it is to be prevented from being taken over by illegals. AGP seems to crumbling which is good as it will become INC vs BJP direct contest.

This is with the alliance, congress will contest 10 and jmm 4, thats why congress has much higher vote share than JMM. Yes, Assam is worrysome. Congress 47%, BJP just 19 and AGP 9. We need to really understand why hindus of assam are still solidly with Cong.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 20 Jan 2014 22:00

If BJP gets 20+ seats in BH and JDU less than 10 I expect the JDU to split at some point. The caveat is the possibility of Laloo aligning with INC. That will significantly change things.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 20 Jan 2014 22:01

RajeshA wrote:CNN IBN Election Tracker says

40% for BJP in Jharkhand. That is humongous! It could be a clean sweep of 14 seats. I expect that after hearing this, there will be a bigger exodus from other parties to BJP in Jharkhand now. More JVM-P people may jump ship. Also AJSU ppl.

Assam is a spot for worrying.

Rajesh ji,

I think JVM-P will become a single man party soon. Leader, worker, sweeper, all in one called Marandi.

Altair · Post by **Altair** » 20 Jan 2014 22:05

This is all very very suspicious. Where are they taking this?
This is gamed well by FF and AAP. Learned gurus and elves can see far. please help us to see what's coming..

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 20 Jan 2014 22:08

muraliravi wrote: We need to really understand why hindus of assam are still solidly with Cong.

Any insights from Singha, Victor, others?

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 20 Jan 2014 22:11

muraliravi wrote:Rajesh ji,

I think JVM-P will become a single man party soon. Leader, worker, sweeper, all in one called Marandi.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 20 Jan 2014 22:13

Supratik wrote:
muraliravi wrote: We need to really understand why hindus of assam are still solidly with Cong.
Any insights from Singha, Victor, others?

Seems a little strange to me. In Gauhati municipality polls in July, Cong. won 19 wards, BJP 11, and AGP 1. And this was municipality polls, where Gogoi would count, but NaMo would not. Also, Cong. had thrown all the bigwigs into campaigning - Tarun Gogoi, Robin Bordoloi, Himanta Biswa Sarma, etc. It is very doubtful to me that 47% of the population of Assam would be with Congress, while just 19% would be with BJP. Ever since 1998, BJP has never got less than 23% of the votes in a Lok Sabha poll. Why would they get just 19% now?

Added: Okay - I checked all elections from 1991, both Lok Sabha and Assembly. Congress has never got more than 39% in any election. The idea that they are going to get 47% of the votes, when there is a national anti-Congress wave is just ridiculous.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 20 Jan 2014 22:21

AAP has gamed INC antipathy to Modi and is using to destroy Delhi

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 20 Jan 2014 22:21

Folks - the more I read these numbers, the more I am beginning to get the feeling that this is just like Chhattisgarh predictions in November (they were predicting that Cong. would get decimated - with about 15-20 seats). I am not at all sure what their sample size is, nor how reflective of the whole political narrative it is. Let us not put too much store in all these election predictions.

Comer · Post by **Comer** » 20 Jan 2014 22:30

Altair wrote:Death by Media!!
Will Congress withdraw support tomorrow?

Hope that doesn't happen so early. Just now, the heavy sleepers are beginning to wake up.

Altair · Post by **Altair** » 20 Jan 2014 22:33

ramana wrote:AAP has gamed INC antipathy to Modi and is using to destroy Delhi

Ramana Garu
Please explain why destroy chances of making the party go national and grabbing say 25-30 seats
They are suicidal. Now they won't get more than 5 seats in LS

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 20 Jan 2014 22:41

Altair wrote:
ramana wrote:AAP has gamed INC antipathy to Modi and is using to destroy Delhi
Ramana Garu
Please explain why destroy chances of making the party go national and grabbing say 25-30 seats
They are suicidal. Now they won't get more than 5 seats in LS

They can never get 25-30 seats.

krisna · Post by **krisna** » 20 Jan 2014 22:44

from medicrooks website - http://www.mediacrooks.com/2014/01/prol ... -evil.html

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 20 Jan 2014 22:55

With Kejriwal now declaring himself to be an anarchist,Delhi has a "Street Minister" instead of a Chief Minister.The AAP is imploding in such indecent haste that the voter will find that the BJP and Mr.Modi are the best bet for stability and eco growth,with the least amount of corruption expected of it,in comparison to the other parties.In UP the Mulayam regime is also self destructing and Nitesh has lost his lustre.The Congress is too steeped in corruption for the stains to wash away before the hustings.CW indicates that it is the BJP that has the max. momentum now with the AAP fast becoming a sick joke under its neo-Nazi "Gauleiter" of Delhi.The Congress should've pensioned off MMS last year and installed the crown prince on the throne so that he could prove that he could govern decisively.Even if he is anointed as PM -in-waiting by his party,it is too little,too late.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 20 Jan 2014 23:06

My only Q is that young uber class and many misinformed (thanks media who never scrutinized) are just not interested in development, economy etc. all they want is 'change'

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 20 Jan 2014 23:16

winning 25 seats in Lok Sabha is not a small thing. Particularly when your state has only 7 seats. If anybody thinks that other areas are easy to win then they are smoking somethings like young Obama. Further even in Delhi PAAP can not win anything now.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 20 Jan 2014 23:17

archan wrote:Ashutosh getting his rear handed to him in an ABP debate. Participants, Rita Bahuguna, Nalin Kohli, Vijay Vidrohi and Kiran Bedi.

Link please!

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 20 Jan 2014 23:23

nageshks wrote:Folks - the more I read these numbers, the more I am beginning to get the feeling that this is just like Chhattisgarh predictions in November (they were predicting that Cong. would get decimated - with about 15-20 seats). I am not at all sure what their sample size is, nor how reflective of the whole political narrative it is. Let us not put too much store in all these election predictions.

Exactly my worry too. Their track record has not been great (not bad either), they are an average polling org. Your Assam numbers and theirs are way off. So now if Assam is so wrong, then it casts doubt on the other states too. Lets take this survey with a bucket of salt

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 20 Jan 2014 23:42

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 123984.cms
BJP to win in Bihar

debadutta · Post by **debadutta** » 20 Jan 2014 23:53

vivek.rao wrote:
Hari Seldon wrote:Wow. JH is a blow-out. lotus could make single party gubmint there all by itself.

WB is sad scene. Whence 19% vote to INC I must wonder.... And the left is still strong at 25%... Can only hope that the bhajpa's 14% is concentrated into a few winnable seats prolly by the Bhar-JH border with WB.

Odisha sadly seems like a lost cause. I also have reason to believe BJP's strength (such as it is) there hurts BJD more as they share vote banks.
If Patnaik has some brains, he will have tactical understanding otherwise, the moron needs to be destroyed first to get BJP eventually

Right , any one who opposes Modi has to be a moron.Surely only a moron can win 3 consecutive elections.

coming to the vote share there has not been much improvement in BJP's vote share in the recent local bodies polls (Distant 3rd in Panchayat/ZP/Municipal polls and the # of seats reduced from 2009) .

I really doubt the accuracy of this poll. Remember CG, where CNNIBN was predicting a sweep for BJP, where as the real results showed a close fight.

On the ground i am not seeing any resurgence of BJP (or Congress) , primarily because they do not have a decent leader who can take the battle to Naveen.

Modi can not single handedly win 272 seats for BJP, they need strong organization and strong local /regional leaders . Sadly this is missing in Odisha .

kumarn · Post by **kumarn** » 21 Jan 2014 00:05

bjp will sweep UP, Bihar and Jharkhand. No doubts about that. I have friends and relatives across these three states, and they say their is a 'lehar' not seen since the RJB days.

member_26255 · Post by **member_26255** » 21 Jan 2014 00:27

Karan M wrote:
archan wrote:Ashutosh getting his rear handed to him in an ABP debate. Participants, Rita Bahuguna, Nalin Kohli, Vijay Vidrohi and Kiran Bedi.
Link please!

http://khabar.ndtv.com/video/show/prime-time/306118

Enjoy Saar!!

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 21 Jan 2014 00:41

Probably not the most exact of analogies, but Kejriwal is looking more and more like the Azhagiri of New Delhi.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 21 Jan 2014 00:57

Suraj wrote:Probably not the most exact of analogies, but Kejriwal is looking more and more like the Azhagiri of New Delhi.

No sir, I beg to differ. I think Kejru is way too smart. Its like a puzzle, hard to guess what they will do the next day. But here is what they have achieved. The Law minister Somnath Bharti is a fraud, i repeat 200% fraud. They have managed to completely divert the issue (the court said he tampered with evidence and affidavit) and turned him into some batman. Now there can be debates on whether anarchy is good or not, but see what they have achieved, they have by passed any debate on whether that guy should have resigned or not. In the process AAP may look like jokers but not tainted. The fanatic crowd that loves AAP only cares about that (tainted or not), anarchy means nothing to them. Those who mock anarchy and want growth are already on Namo side. The challenge is to bring these yuppies who have been fooled by these rogues to the other side.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 21 Jan 2014 00:59

Thanks Agastya!

BTW did anyone notice Ashutoshs characteristic constipated expression and finger up pose in every show he undertakes? Jeez...he is even more arrogant and full of himself than some of the more odious INC spokespersons.. unbelievable.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 21 Jan 2014 01:06

I think it takes a lot of political smarts to hang onto Madurai for more than 2 decades, in addition to a lot of goondagiri

I'm only referring to AK's reign of error , a la Robespierre . I'm not surprised with what's going on - put a bunch of angry neophytes in power and this is exactly what can be expected. I don't give credit to AK's alleged smarts until I actually see it. His JEE AIR no longer matters. As long as he continues posturing himself as a goonda leader he'll rapidly erode goodwill because everyone will soon start thinking 'what if he directs his ire at me ?'

Comer · Post by **Comer** » 21 Jan 2014 01:06

Suraj wrote:Probably not the most exact of analogies, but Kejriwal is looking more and more like the Azhagiri of New Delhi.

I think Manish Sisodia is the Azhagiri of AAP. Kejriwal is the artiste himself. Kumar Vishwas is Vadivelu.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 21 Jan 2014 01:09

saravana wrote:Kumar Vishwas is Vadivelu.

All they need is a Prabhudeva and they can re-enact 'Take it easy policy'.

Comer · Post by **Comer** » 21 Jan 2014 01:14

^^Saw the song on youtube after a long time, great one

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 21 Jan 2014 01:18

saravana wrote:^^Saw the song on youtube after a long time, great one

Make it two and watch April Mayile from Idhayam also.

Comer · Post by **Comer** » 21 Jan 2014 02:01

^^ Done saar, felt very nostalgic! The raspy voice of Ilayaraja at the beginning perfectly captures the dry days of annual holidays.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 21 Jan 2014 02:04

http://exitopinionpollsindia.blogspot.c ... is-of.html

The guy is a core congressi, but never mind, his website is gold for number lovers.

If you look at that link, you will see that barring Chhattisgarh, CSDS was the best predictor in almost all other states for all parties.

VikramS · Post by **VikramS** » 21 Jan 2014 02:49

Got to know that Sunanda Pushkar came from a military family. Father and I think brother are Army men.

No wonder she started swinging about the cause of the Kashmiri's. She was also not apologetic about being a Shaivite.

That her death was unnatural is should hardly be in doubt. But will they get away is the question?

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 21 Jan 2014 03:13

Altair wrote:This is all very very suspicious. Where are they taking this?
This is gamed well by FF and AAP. Learned gurus and elves can see far. please help us to see what's coming..

I am neither a learned guru nor an elf. FF hoped for the rang de basanti redux when Aam Aadmi actually eliminates Kejriwal. But now with security provided that's unlikely. They were surely hoping for some sort of assault or worse on Kejriwal to milk for sympathy and then on wards to rang de effing basanti. This has proven Indian people are not idiots like those in arap lands. Indian media is shit but still we have intelligent people to guide us through this. Some day we will be able to engineer a stars-stripes revolution in massa land.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 21 Jan 2014 04:16

RajeshA wrote:CNN-IBN Tracker

Odisha

Party/Front------Projected Seats-------Vote Share
BJD------10-16-------33%
INC------3-9---------31%
BJP------0-4---------25%

If BJP can convert 4 seats for itself in Odisha, that would be fantastic. Many have been expecting no seats at all.

Its the 'others' category at 11% voteshare that moi finds beri interesting onlee... who are these others? Pyari Mohan Mohapatra's party, by any chance? independents? Maopest or churchian proxies? Combining half this others votehsare with lotus' takes lotus to pole position w.r.t. INC at any rate....

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 21 Jan 2014 04:43

CSDS-CNN-IBN think they are being very smart by deliberately not putting out seat projections in Jharkhand, i mean c'mon, with 40% vote share and the 2nd largest being just 1/2 of that, BJP will win at least 12/14. Its a grand slam.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 21 Jan 2014 04:49

muraliravi wrote:CSDS-CNN-IBN think they are being very smart by deliberately not putting out seat projections in Jharkhand, i mean c'mon, with 40% vote share and the 2nd largest being just 1/2 of that, BJP will win at least 12/14. Its a grand slam.

They said their sample size was too small to make predictions. And same for Assam. Which is why I am not convinced that it is reflective of the ground tendencies.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 21 Jan 2014 04:53

Folks, I did a quick check on the vote shares in JH in 2009 Parliament elections.

In Parliament, BJP won 27.5% of the vote, JMM got 11.7%, Cong 15%, JVM got 10.5% of the votes, RJD got 5.3% and others got 30% of the vote share.

Basically, for the BJP to get 40% of the vote, it has to eat into the others' vote, maybe even RJD and Congress vote share. Given that BJP had left two of the seats to its ally JD(U), it is possible to hypothesise that the BJP would well get approx. 30% (but this 2.5% would come directly from the Others category).

If today BJP is getting 40% of the vote, basically it has to eat about 10-12% from the Congress, RJD and Others vote shares. It is very hard for the BJP to take Marandi's or JMM votes (they are based heavily on tribal loyalties and are locked in). But from the 50.8% of the votes of the Cong., RJD and Others, BJP will have to get 10% of the votes. In particular, wooing independent voters from Cong., or OBC votes from RJD, or even tribes not locked into existing political relationships looks eminently possible.

/*Dream mode on*/
What I would ideally want for the BJP to achieve in Jharkhand is to finish off the JMM and take their Santhali vote bank. This would put an end to the pernicious Church work, give the BJP a lock in on the tribal votes of the Jharkhand region, and have massive repercussions for the neighbouring WB. With the backing of the Santhalis, the BJP will have a base to start from to begin winning seats in Bengal. Finally, if the BJP can woo away the segment of the Santhalis that is supporting the Maopests, it will have done a yeoman service to the country.
*/Dream mode off*/

SBajwa · Post by **SBajwa** » 21 Jan 2014 05:03

by VikramS
Got to know that Sunanda Pushkar came from a military family. Father and I think brother are Army men.

She was most likely part of RAW!! and this whole thing is a deal gone bad!!!!! tharoor and congress are the biggest "DESH DROHIs" you can find and need to be put away as soon as possible (democratic or other ways)