Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

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RajeshA
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by RajeshA »

harbans wrote:
I think the first step should be to reject the definitions of Hindhuism provided by the present setup.
JohneeG when i was talking about this last year you were pretty much on the forefront cricitizing me for saying so. That is why that all Dharmic sampradayas remain united i keep calling for doing away with the Hindu definition and rallying under the Dharmic tag and various Dharmic sampradayas for the choosing. I mentioned it 2 years ago that many sects will break away. Sikhs, Buddhists, Jain have. Hare Krishna have in the USA and will too in India. Many here were arguing hard that HKs are not Hindu's etc..a pointless debate when you're losing out so badly. Vaishnavs and Sai Bhakts etc will all soon be registered separately till we understand and make a meta ethic template compatible with the various Sampradayic Dharmas. Only then we shall have a cohesive force that will stand up for every Dharmic sampradayas interests. Else divided we fall. This must happen prior 2019. BJP/ RSS/ VHP then may have to change tack a bit and rally under a Dharmic banner. That will be the right alternate platform to prevent further damage to the Dharmic sampradayas.
harbans ji,

this is a long discussion among us as well. I am sure your intentions and aims are of course good, and so is your general direction. However I think your strategy is faulty.

Till now I have been unable to convey to you and of course many others, that "Hindu" is an absolutely non-negotiable identity. In fact all Indics should gather under the term. What is important is to detach "Hindu" from any Bhaktipanths. "Hindu" should be understood in a non-"religious" way. "Hindu" comes from "Hindutva" and not from "Hinduism".

I wrote on this issue here.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by RajeshA »

Dilbu wrote:Abracadabra! There you have it.
Sunanda Pushkar case: Husband Shashi Tharoor given a clean chit
Minister of State for Human Resource Development (HRD) Shashi Tharoor has been given a clean chit in his wife Sunanda Pushkar's death probe.

The autopsy report of Sunanda Pushkar was given to the Sub-Divisional Magistrate Alok Sharma by All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS) stating drug overdose may have caused her death.

According to media reports, Delhi Police have said that Tharoor has been given a clean chit based on the testimony of a witness who saw Pushkar alive two hours after Tharoor had left the five-star hotel in Delhi where she found dead.
He may not have killed her personally, however it doesn't mean he was not aware or indeed even accomplice to the ensuing murder of Sunanda Pushkar.
muraliravi
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by muraliravi »

Survey Leaks

CSDS-LokNiti-CNN-IBN

Only Vote Shares

Karnataka:
Cong - 42, BJP 32, JDS-18

Kerala:
UDF (Congress+)-50, LDF (Left)-31, BJP-9

Tamil Nadu:
Cong -17, BJP-16, DMK-18, AIADMK-29

Andhra Pradesh
Cong-24, YSR Cong-22, TDP-21, TRS-11, BJP-10

Cvoter-Timesnow Survey Leak, Keep in mind that Cvoter always gave the lowest tally to BJP among all nation wide surveys held and telecasted on TV in the last 18 months.

Vote Share(Seats)

Haryana:
BJP+HJC -32%(7), INLD -21%(1), Congress - 23%(1), AAP-20% (1)

Punjab:
BJP+SAD-43% (10), Congress - 35%(3), AAP-16% (0); Breakdown, SAD-31%, BJP-12%

Uttar Pradesh:
BJP-28% (39), BSP-24% (20), SP-22%(14), Cong+RLD-15% (7), AAP-6%(0)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________

AAP Effect in Haryana has already been discussed where it was proven conclusively that they took Congress and BSP votes.

Now in Punjab, in 2012 Assembly elections, SAD had 34.7% and BJP had 7.2%, so a total of 41.9%. The split up between SAD and BJP has changed with BJP increasing its vote share because of the way they share the LS seats between them. But as such NDA remains at 43% vote and thereby unaffected by the AAP nautanki. So where is AAP getting its 16% in Punjab.

Congress had 40.1%, so they lost 5% to AAP. The independents had 6.8%, BSP 4.3% and Manpreet Badal's PnPP had 5.2%. A good 11% of the 16% vote from these 3 has moved to AAP and with the 5% from cong they reach 16%.

Leaving all emotions if you analyze, most new parties when they start, especially on the platform on which AAP started, the natural course is to first consolidate and cut into vote shares on independents and smaller parties like BSP (barring UP), left parties (outside wb and kerala), they will also cut congress vote share partly becos of dole concept and more importantly becos at ground level aap karyakarta is the ex congi karyakarta. It will be a while 5-10 yrs before they can touch the core BJP voter. I dont believe that the educated middle class (at least not the agitation and anarchy loving people, the middle class which wants economic growth and stability is solidly behind Namo) was ever a core BJP voter barring certain locations.

People who vote for independents or bsp or left in states where they have marginal presence are people who would never vote for cong or bjp (modi or no modi), so thinking that they would have leaned towards bjp if not for AAP is terribly wrong.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Supratik »

From Telengana and SA numbers it seems BJP-TDP in SA will get good no of seats but not defeat Jagan while BJP-TDP or BJP-TRS is needed in T.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by fanne »

UP is still very low for bjp
muraliravi
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by muraliravi »

fanne wrote:UP is still very low for bjp
What I am worried about is the vote share. 28% is border line. If it just plummets by 2-3%, the seat tally will go to 25 from 39.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Shanmukh »

muraliravi wrote:
fanne wrote:UP is still very low for bjp
What I am worried about is the vote share. 28% is border line. If it just plummets by 2-3%, the seat tally will go to 25 from 39.
Folks, even when BJP was winning approx. 34% of the vote, it was winning only around 45-47 of the seats. It is also a voter distribution thing. 28% is just too low to make many predictions, particularly when we know nothing of candidates. BJP should get about 35% of the vote if it wants to win around 45-50 seats. Otherwise, it is all but impossible to win in UP, where Muslims, particularly in borderline seats, will vote for the party best positioned to beat BJP. This thing is critical in about 40-45 of the 80 seats. Unless the BJP is above 30%, BJP will have a hard time.
fanne
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by fanne »

lets wait for few more surveys. Others in the past 4-6 months have predicted bjp over 35%.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Rahul Mehta »

Congress made AK-420 more popular in middle class-voters across India by agreeing to send "erring" Delhi police officers on leave --- so middle class voters across India will feel "see , BJP\Congress AK did something, while AK did something".

Consider Swami Ramdevji's demand to shut down Mauritius route that he made on 4-jun-2011 at 10 pm. Within 4 hours, 5000 policemen came down to beat 25000 sleeping supporters in Ram Leela maindan. There were less than 2000 supporters at Rail Bhavan, and Govt could have easily obtained order to "disperse illegal gathering" from High Court , and disperse the crowd merely by water cannons. But instead, Congress decided to accept AK-420's demands partly and make him a hero !!

Now for next 4 months, delhi police will take less bribes, increase patrolling, shut down many drug dens and shut down commercial sex dens etc. And across India, paid-media will give credit to AK-420. And thus paid-media will enable AK-420 to capture crores of middle class voters.

OR, the sponors of paid-media will ask BJP to get rid f all BJP's old time Hinduvaadi, Swadeshi and Nationalist cadre, and give tickets to corporate honchos who are well connected with MNC_owners and Missionaries. If BJP agrees, then sponsors of AK-420 will reduce AK-420's coverage and do lesser damage to BJP. Otherwise, an intense media campaign will ensure that crores of voters walk to Ak-420.
muraliravi
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by muraliravi »

fanne wrote:lets wait for few more surveys. Others in the past 4-6 months have predicted bjp over 35%.
The survey gives AAP 6% vote, have they cut BJP from 34 to 28??

By the way C-Voter gave BJP 12 and 17 seats in July and Oct 2013, now it is 39.
Last edited by muraliravi on 21 Jan 2014 20:40, edited 1 time in total.
ShyamSP
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by ShyamSP »

muraliravi wrote:Survey Leaks

CSDS-LokNiti-CNN-IBN
...
Andhra Pradesh
Cong-24, YSR Cong-22, TDP-21, TRS-11, BJP-10
...
:roll: If Congress is a washout in non-Telangana, 1/4 vote share is clearly bogus. oh! this is CNN-IBN survey.
fanne
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by fanne »

doubt it
Shanmukh
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Shanmukh »

muraliravi wrote:
fanne wrote:lets wait for few more surveys. Others in the past 4-6 months have predicted bjp over 35%.
The survey gives AAP 6% vote, have they cut BJP from 34 to 28??
MuraliRavi-ji,
No point worrying about all this. I told you surveys of 1000 odd people will have too many binaries and biases. My gut feeling, when all is said and done, is that the BJP will go back to its mid 90s vote share of around 30-32% in UP. But it is too early to start predicting things, particularly when the BJP has not yet announced the candidates.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by johneeG »

harbans wrote:
I think the first step should be to reject the definitions of Hindhuism provided by the present setup.
JohneeG when i was talking about this last year you were pretty much on the forefront cricitizing me for saying so. That is why that all Dharmic sampradayas remain united i keep calling for doing away with the Hindu definition and rallying under the Dharmic tag and various Dharmic sampradayas for the choosing. I mentioned it 2 years ago that many sects will break away. Sikhs, Buddhists, Jain have. Hare Krishna have in the USA and will too in India. Many here were arguing hard that HKs are not Hindu's etc..a pointless debate when you're losing out so badly. Vaishnavs and Sai Bhakts etc will all soon be registered separately till we understand and make a meta ethic template compatible with the various Sampradayic Dharmas. Only then we shall have a cohesive force that will stand up for every Dharmic sampradayas interests. Else divided we fall. This must happen prior 2019. BJP/ RSS/ VHP then may have to change tack a bit and rally under a Dharmic banner. That will be the right alternate platform to prevent further damage to the Dharmic sampradayas.
:mrgreen: Yep, when I wrote that post I was reminded of you. But after seeing your post, I now realize why I had opposed your points.

The difference between what you are saying and what I am saying is:
I am saying:
There is already a clear definition of Hindhuism according to Hindhuism. But, many people(including the judiciary or constitution) don't want to take the definition of Hindhuism by Hindhuism. Instead, they want to come up with their own definition that suits their tastes.

The debate generally starts with the word 'Hindhu' and its supposed foreign origin. But thats a silly issue because Hindhuism has many synonyms. And if the word 'Hindhu' is the problem, one can easily use other synonyms. But the problem is not with the word 'Hindhu', but with the very identity and definition of Hindhuism. People raise the supposed foreign origin of the word 'Hindhu' to argue that there is no identity/definition of Hindhuism. And thats wrong.

Judiciary/state has come up with a strange definition of Hindhuism which is supposed to be everything and nothing...which tolerates everything and opposes nothing...which should not be defined and remain undefinable. This sort of strange way of defining Hindhuism goes against many of the core ethos of Hindhuism. Whenever Hindhus try to assert themselves on any of their cherished values, they are put on a backfoot by this strange definition. Further, Hindhus are guilty of being the majority. Due to that crime, they are supposed to never raise their voice on any of their aspirations as a community.

So, I am saying that if the identity of Hindhu has been corrupted and if being the majority is the problem, then use other identities like sect, caste, region,...etc to achieve the perks and privileges that have been granted to many of the so-called minority creeds. Most of the times, these so-called minority creeds are vastly more powerful than indic religions due to the foreign backing. Infact, globally, they are THE majority creeds. So, for them to claim victim status is the height of irony in my view especially since they were also rulers in the not so distant past.

What you are saying is:
Hindhu identity is a hurdle, so we have to create a new identity. But of course, Hindhu is not just an identity, it is a religion. So, there has to be some compromises in the religion. A new dharmik creed which is an amalgamation of all 'dharmik' sects has to be created.

You are talking of creating a new religion. I am talking of using other identities to achieve the same goal. What I am saying is very different from what you are saying.
Altair wrote:
johneeG wrote:For example:
If muslims are allowed to marry 4 times, then Shaaktheyas should also be allowed to marry 4 times. Why should Shaaktheyas come under Hindhu marriage act?

If alimony is unlawful according to muslim beliefs, then Shaivas should also demand that alimony is unlawful according to their beliefs. Why should Shaivas come under Hindhu act?
I think this idea needs further thought processing. Different Hindu sects claiming Minority status. There are Risks associated but if there are advantages we can balance them.
That aside, johneeG, If you are married and come under Shaaktheyas and your SHQ visits this post, you are in trouble!! :P
Yes, saar. There are risks and it could go horribly wrong with sectarian conflicts.

Traditionally, my family is not Shaaktheya, but I am inclined towards Goddesses. :P
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by ramana »

Hind Times:

http://ibnlive.in.com/news/poll-tracker ... 37-81.html

Stage set for AAPifying India.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by muraliravi »

ramana wrote:Hind Times:

http://ibnlive.in.com/news/poll-tracker ... 37-81.html

Stage set for AAPifying India.
Ramana ji,

If you read between the lines in the survey, you will find many contradictions. Not worth making anything out of their headlines. They are desperately hanging on to straws here. Ask them to project Jharkhand seats. Lets wait for them to project all states.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by SanjayC »

EVM fraud will happen, as in the previous two LS elections. These fake surveys are used to set expectations so that the fraud results won't come as a shock to people. Earlier Cong was troubled by opinion polls as they made it harder to commit EVM fraud. It has developed a new strategy to sponsor some opinion polls which give results that are nearer to the figures that it wants to achieve even as other opinion polls give the genuine picture. This is the reason why some polls (genuine) gave just 6 seats to AAP in Delhi elections while others (sponsored) gave 30. This confuses everyone, making EVM fraud easier to commit.

This survey shows that the game has started to set expectations for the results that have to be delivered by EVM fraud.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by muraliravi »

http://www.niticentral.com/2013/10/16/b ... 46818.html

This is an article based on cvoter survey done in oct 2013

According to the opinion poll, in Uttar Pradesh, which sends 80 members to Lok Sabha, the BJP has made crucial gain and is predicted to win 17 seats with 21 per cent of vote share. In 2009 general election, the party had won 10 seats with 18 per cent of vote share.

Overall they predicted 165 seats for BJP in Oct 2013.

Cvoter will telecast their survey in 2-3 days. Lets see what they give BJP overall. Based on the leaks, BJP has moved from 21 to 28% in UP and gone from 17 to 39 seats.

Once CSDS completes their survey, I will put up a chart and show their previous 2 national surveys and then see the trend.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by muraliravi »

Did some quick analysis on UP,

Image

I put my inference too in the same pic. Some more points, whatever behenji does, she will not cross 20 seats (I used to hear this, but did not understand until i did a spreadsheet like this). I think her vote base is spread in such a way that she needs like 30%+ to cross 20 seats and thats not happening. As far as BJP is concerned, anything from 17-23% will yield them the same 10 seats. They get close to 30 seats once they cross the 24-25% vote share barrier. Once they get close to 30%, they reach around 35-40 seats. They need to breach 32-33% vote share to hit 50+. But they are on the right track.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Saral »

While one can rightly flame the #AAPtards for their over the top antics, notice that they are quite cleverly wrapping themselves in patriotic symbols, noticeably "Vande mataram", "bharat mata ki jai" and visually, the Indian tricolor which has positive associations to people in general (see the ad used by them in Singapore to advertise Republic day shenanigans). Do a google image search for AAP and flag to see their creative use of the tricolor.

The BJP/NaMo does use "Vande mataram" but their use of the tricolor is very muted, almost absent. Their lotus symbol is dated because it was designed so long ago and they do not seem to use the tricolor at all. Why? This is a no-brainer. In the US both parties wrap themselves around the flag.. the Republicans tend to use nationalistic symbols more effectively. The AAP topi is also very effective as a visual aid. Am just curious why the BJP is not using the tricolor at all in their functions or ads. Any ideas?

Also there is no such thing as the BJP uniform (searches only link to outdated, awkward pixs of Gadkari in RSS shorts). My suggestion would be use the Indian light blue of the early 90s cricket teams with a dash of white and light green with a mix of modernized lotus and Ashoka Chakra. Such symbols are important. Congress has their all whites.. BJP has nothing.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Abhijit »

^^^A saffron or saffron-laced uttariya is a standard BJP accessory.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Saral »

Right.. All I see is Saffron.. Thats part of the flag, and thats fine. If they want to expand to new voters from non-traditional segments, they need to add other symbols such as the national (Indian) flag, colors from that etc. Add symbols, colors that cut across various segments. Simply using what's on the party flag is self limiting.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by ramana »

Datapoint...

Rahuls' game plan for 2019
....Given Rahul's line of thought, there's every possibility that the list of Congress candidates from Karnataka may throw up four or five surprises. Among the nine sitting MPs, two or three are likely to be replaced, with independent surveys commissioned by the Congress high command suggesting it can expect to retain only four of them, the sources revealed.

....
The Congress is planning to announce its first list in early February. This will be for constituencies that are not held by the party. "With some sitting MPs set to be dropped, the party doesn't want to embarrass them during the Parliament's budget session commencing on February 3,'' the sources explained.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by muraliravi »

Here I expose the CSDS survey from their own website. The below pic shows the survey size they have in each state. Most of the states (10) have sample sizes lower than Jharkhand when most of them have population similar or greater than Jharkhand. The number of PC's surveyed is also similar or proportional (in case they argue on basis of sample size per pc). Just 6 states have greater sample size. And at these pop levels, beyond a particular sample size, it hardly makes any difference, unless state has too many vagaries.

So if in Jharkhand, they cannot predict seats because their sample size is too little, then with what confidence have these morons estimated seats in states like Gujarat, Haryana, Karnataka, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Punjab, Rajasthan and Tamil Nadu with each of these states having a lower sample size than Jharkhand, while having population higher/similar than Jharkhand.

Image

My inside info is that, their survey is giving BJP 180+ and they are going out of the way to fudge numbers so much to down play stuff. In fact their Assam and Chhattisgarh samples are a joke, rather for these 2 states they shd have much higher sample even for their pops due to the vagaries within the state.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Muppalla »

murali, good job. But that's okay to be around 180. :)
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by ramana »

So murali just to be the shaitan vadi, are the red states homogenous? Would the smaller sample size reflect the homogeneous population?

Jharkhand could be diverse with mix of urban, rural and hill locales, hence the sample size was not adequate.

Also looks like they got 2/3 of the targetted sample and about 1/2 in some cases.
So is it possible to ratio the actual sample to targetted sample and see what it brings up?

BTW in Andhra Pradesh the only true test is after elections day!
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by gandharva »

Muppalla wrote:murali, good job. But that's okay to be around 180. :)
Remember the "over-correction" applied by Yogendra Yadava to the field data to reduce BJP seats in Gujarat assembly elections in 2012. If they are predicting 181 then take away "over-correction" and in reality it must be in 210-230 range.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by muraliravi »

ramana wrote:So murali just to be the shaitan vadi, are the red states homogenous? Would the smaller sample size reflect the homogeneous population?

Jharkhand could be diverse with mix of urban, rural and hill locales, hence the sample size was not adequate.

Also looks like they got 2/3 of the targetted sample and about 1/2 in some cases.
So is it possible to ratio the actual sample to targetted sample and see what it brings up?

BTW in Andhra Pradesh the only true test is after elections day!
Ramana Sir,

Your question is very much valid, but look at the other states. Chhattisgarh is even more diverse than Jharkhand. Take Karnataka for example, from an electoral perspective, it has 4 distinct regions with BJP completely absent in one, much different Jharkhand. Take Kerala, which has again 4 distinct regions (TN bordering hills, central hindu areas, coastal x-tian and the northern muslim areas). I think Jharkhand is far more uniform barring the urban centers it has. But almost all of these red states have their fair share of urban areas. Tamil Nadu, Northern DMK hold, Central ADMK, South-Central- PMK, Deep South X-tian.

I am not saying their survey is all wrong, in fact even these sample sizes are not bad if we can tolerate a 4-5% error margin at a 95% confidence level (but the issue is in India, generally sample sizes need to measured at a district level due to the heterogeneity of our regions). But just the fact that they deliberately choose to have a 30 min discussion on Orissa which has 21 seats, and not spare a minute for Jharkhand which has 14 seats does raise a flag. Worse they deliberately avoided projecting seats there. What they have done in Assam is a joke.

Let me be prophetic here, I bet they will share seat projections for Haryana and talk about AAP for 30 mins where AAP barely win a single seat, where they have a sample size of 70 per PC. In Jharkhand they had a sample size of 97.2 per PC. Haryana is also quite diverse, caste varies across state, people's occupation changes, khaps on one side, gurgaon on the other. The overall pop. diff between Haryana and Jharkhand is also not very diff.

On the other issue, if you look further, Jharkhand is among the states where the ratio of the achieved to the target sample is on the higher side (in fact maybe the highest), ROGUE CSDS-CNN-IBN, their numbers may not be wrong, but they deliberately hide some states and figures which make BJP look good.
Last edited by muraliravi on 22 Jan 2014 18:31, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by vivek.rao »

I can understand we are all enraged by Kujli's antics. He used his minister's bad behavior to raise Police MAFIA issue.

Here is a honest officer who is being harassed by ITALIAN MAFIA, CONGi scoundrels. Why is BJP silent? Why do they never raise this issue?

Ashok Khemka: CM okayed deal for which I'm being probed
The Haryana government may have recommended a CBI probe against whistleblower IAS officer Ashok Khemka over an alleged Rs 8 crore scam in procurement of galvanized iron sheets to replace hazardous asbestos sheet. But Khemka says he has three approvals in his bag - one from chief minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda's office, and two from board of directors' meetings.

The Haryana government has alleged that Khemka, during his tenure as managing director of Haryana State Warehousing Corporation (HSWC), favoured Ahmedabad-based Proflex Systems, and that he gave repeat orders to the firm without inviting fresh tenders, which is against the norms.

But Khemka cites a few points put up for the meeting of HSWC board of directors, which stated: "The roof sheeting work was allotted to M/s Proflex System, Ahmedabad, after due procedure of calling tenders, etc., was followed. In the first instance, the agency was asked to install galvalume (or galvanized corrugated iron) sheet roofing in 25 godowns... these included 14 godowns of HSWC and 11 godowns of Corporation for Food and Supplies Department, Haryana."
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Muppalla »

murali, if you go by PP then congress gets betwee zero and 33 in 543 :)
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Shanmukh »

vivek.rao wrote:I can understand we are all enraged by Kujli's antics. He used his minister's bad behavior to raise Police MAFIA issue.

Here is a honest officer who is being harassed by ITALIAN MAFIA, CONGi scoundrels. Why is BJP silent? Why do they never raise this issue?

Ashok Khemka: CM okayed deal for which I'm being probed
Saar,
The BJP has been protesting what is being done to Khemka.

http://zeenews.india.com/news/haryana/h ... 94596.html

http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report-ha ... gh-1953110

Maybe the BJP should offer to defend Khemka legally?
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Hari Seldon »

^^Maybe lotus' legal eagles - the jaitleys and jethmalanis ought now to be deployed... no? Also, read somewhere that Khemka was planning on formally joining the BJP....

Meanwhile, media mischief highlights routine push-pull in a democratic party setup as major fissures only.... sample this from IE

BJP leaders refuse to take up tasks assigned by Amit Shah
subhamoy.das
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by subhamoy.das »

Votes nee to be told very simply what is they will get if they vote for BJP, CONG(I), PAAP

If u vote for BJP u will get to eat good quality rice, wheat, dal, vegetables,milks ...
If u vote for CONG(I) u will get to eat course quality rice and some wheat...
If u vote for PAAP u will get to get eat dharnas and road blocks....
vivek.rao
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by vivek.rao »

New players are working on BSP to force Maya to ally with CON DIEnasty. The games are relentless.


The bypassing of the BSP
Pradeep Chhibber and Rahul Verma
However, if the elections in various states since 2009 are any indicator, the BSP is in terminal decline. The probability that the party will return to the glory of 2007, when it singlehandedly won the assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh and announced its national ambitions, is low. The BSP may continue to be a major player in UP, but its ambition of becoming a pan-India party seems to be rather far-fetched on current evidence.

The data presented in Table 1 show that the BSP has suffered a setback in all assembly elections held in major states in the last few years. Its vote share and the number of seats it won in the legislative assemblies has declined in Bihar, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, UP, Gujarat, Karnataka, Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. The party could only partially improve upon its previous performance in the state of Uttarakhand. During the 2012 assembly elections in Uttarakhand, though the BSP added 1 percentage point to its vote share in 2007, the number of seats it won were reduced from eight to three.

The BSP’s debacle in the recently concluded assembly elections could be predicted after its premature calculations of acquiring power in Delhi during the 2009 Lok Sabha elections. As Table 2 suggests, the BSP has not seen any significant increase in its national vote share for almost two decades. The marginal increase of 2 percentage points between 1999 and 2009 is merely a result of the party contesting twice the number of seats in 2009 when compared to 1999. Since the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, the BSP’s ambition of expanding outside UP has only seen setbacks. The upcoming Lok Sabha elections and subsequent assembly elections in the states of Haryana, Maharashtra and Jharkhand later this year will probably put a final seal on the BSP’s prospect of becoming a truly national party with a significant electoral presence in multiple states.

The previous electoral performance of the BSP in states does not provide any real hope for it to be able to turn things around quickly. During the 2009 Lok Sabha elections in Haryana, the BSP won 16 per cent of the vote. However, the promise of gaining a foothold in the state was shortlived. The party’s vote share declined by more than half in the state during the assembly elections held five months after the Lok Sabha polls. Likewise, the BSP’s vote share was almost halved in Maharashtra and Jharkhand between the Lok Sabha and assembly elections.
The writers are with the Travers Department of Political Science, University of California, Berkeley, US
KLP Dubey
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by KLP Dubey »

Pradeep Chhibber and Rahul Verma
These guys are probably right. The caste-based parties (BSP, SP, RJD and other trash) as well as the commies (Marx, Lenin, Mao etc) are on the decline. The BSP-type parties will die natural deaths, but more importantly I sure hope communism is wiped off the map of India during my lifetime.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by krishnan »

Image
member_20317
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by member_20317 »

I suspect the worse in this case but still

http://zeenews.india.com/news/nation/su ... 05707.html
Sunanda Pushkar died of poisoning; SDM tells police to 'probe murder or suicide angle'
http://www.ndtv.com/article/india/sunan ... ath-473948

..........

http://www.ndtv.com/article/india/my-mo ... non-473955
New Delhi: Sunanda Pushkar Tharoor's son Shiv Menon has said she was too strong to commit suicide, and her death was an "unfortunate combination of media stress, tensions and wrong mix of different medications."

Mr Menon, who is Sunanda Tharoor's son by a previous marriage, said in a statement today, "Her death was peaceful, she passed in her sleep." He said watching the news had devastated him to a degree that he felt he had to speak out.
SanjayC
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by SanjayC »

^^ What about the injuries on upper parts of her body? Her death was sudden due to administration of some drug. I am surprised the son is talking like this.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by krishnan »

how is he concluding that she died peacefully in her sleep ???
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by AjayKK »

Lord Maino-baton and kala angrez are not jannating Arvind Gandhi ji and blaming it on Kamal Ram Godse ?
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