Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 22 Jan 2014 14:24

Swapan Dasgupta ‏@swapan55 12m

What is interesting that voters of both parties clearly favour a TDP-BJP alliance.
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Swapan Dasgupta ‏@swapan55 16m

Chidambaram should remember that injecting domestic politics in an international gathering at Davos is totally out of order.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 22 Jan 2014 15:31

IPS officer gets show cause notice for praising Narendra Modi

A Bihar Police official was served a show cause notice for delivering a political speech during which he referred to BJP's prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi.

RK Mishra, a 1986 batch Indian Police Service (IPS) officer, was served the notice for his speech at a function in Darbhanga district in November held to mark the death anniversary of noted Mithila poet Vidyapati.

He reportedly cited the example of Modi's address in Maithili language at a rally in Patna on Oct 27 last year, to exhort the masses to champion the cause of the language.

niran · Post by **niran** » 22 Jan 2014 15:41

SanjayC wrote:^^ What about the injuries on upper parts of her body? Her death was sudden due to administration of some drug. I am surprised the son is talking like this.

the autopsy reports clearly states death due to poisoning (from what onree SDM and Polis knows) there is a difference
death due to overdose== can be self harm or accidental
death due to poisoning== murder or accidental
the amount and the substance will point to murder or accident
since SDM has ordered fresh investigation based on Autopsy report on the lines of Murder == poisoning
the investigation will continue on that line regardless of what whoever says.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 22 Jan 2014 18:28

CSDS-CNN-IBN survey Leak,

Only Vote Shares

Gujarat:
BJP: 53%, INC 32%, AAP 7%

2009 LS Gujarat: BJP 46.5%(15), INC: 43.4% (11)

Rajasthan:
BJP: 54%, INC 33%, AAP: 3%

2009 LS Rajasthan: BJP: 36.6% (4), INC: 47.2% (20), IND: 9.3% (1)

Maharashtra:
BJP+SS+RPI(A): 44%, INC+NCP:35%, MNS: 3%, AAP: 5%

2009 LS Maharashtra: BJP+SS: 35% (20), INC+NCP: 39% (25), RPI(A): 0.6% (0), MNS: 4.1% (0), Swambhimani Paksha: 1.3% (1)

Swambhimani Paksha is now part of NDA taking NDA's projected vote share to 45.3%, if SWP gets the same 1.3% again.

Karnataka (Congress Party Internal Survey) leaked:

Conducted Oct 2013 seat tally: Congress-20, BJP-6, JDS-2
Conducted Jan 2014 seat tally: Congress-17, BJP-10, JDS-1

kmkraoind · Post by **kmkraoind** » 22 Jan 2014 18:38

India’s Decade of Decay - Jaswant Singh in Project-Syndicate.org

This unnatural arrangement instantly earned acid comments. As one observer astutely remarked, “Where there is authority, there is no ability; but where there is some ability, there is no authority.” Despite Singh’s academic abilities, his potential as India’s top politician was severely limited. Over time, it became apparent that Singh’s government was worse than ineffective; it was doomed to fail, because Singh’s strengths lie in serving as an obedient and capable subordinate, not as an agenda-setting leader who acts decisively.

Consider his role in managing India’s economic transformation when he was the country’s finance minister in the early 1990’s – an effort that his supporters have often cited as an example of his vision and ability. Last year, former External Affairs Minister Natwar Singh disclosed that it was actually then-Prime Minister Narasimha Rao, a shrewd and experienced Congress veteran, who pushed India’s economic reform and restructuring. Singh, reluctant to do what was needed, would have achieved very little had Rao not provided a platform – and the needed political support – to pursue the government’s agenda. Early on, there were intimations that Singh should neither be underestimated as a political manipulator, nor overestimated as an effective economic manager.

But Singh’s ineptitude as a leader was already apparent before the revelation of Rao’s role. Not only has economic reform come to a virtual standstill since he took office, but he has also acquiesced to all of Gandhi’s demands, legitimate or otherwise.

As a result, governance, and thus the economy, has been deteriorating. India has been taken hostage by an extra-constitutional body composed of NGOs, brought together under the National Advisory Council, which is chaired by Gandhi. With the cabinet having become superfluous, the NAC’s decrees – including half-baked ideas inspired by the European welfare state – became policy.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 22 Jan 2014 19:20

Muraliravi, Thanks for clarifying the survey methods. My concern is I dont want the repeat of the 2009 results.
In all these states which are the crucial must win states for BJP? Next the probable and no chance?

Yiddish (New York Jewish) saying "Overfeed on hope, die of starvation!"

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 22 Jan 2014 19:23

R Jagannathan ‏@TheJaggi 55s

Is Chidambaram in Davos to rubbish political rivals? Why should taxpayer pay for his junket when he plays politics? http://bit.ly/1aKVRDp

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 22 Jan 2014 19:26

He has lost it.

Lilo · Post by **Lilo** » 22 Jan 2014 19:35

Did any survey(in the recently released) collect second preference options from respondents ?

example:
Voter1
Whom will you vote..?
Preference 1: AAP
Preference 2: BJP

Like everyone here i want to get a better understanding on AAP as a turd option eating into BJP and Cong(I) vote shares.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 22 Jan 2014 19:55

ramana wrote:Muraliravi, Thanks for clarifying the survey methods. My concern is I dont want the repeat of the 2009 results.
In all these states which are the crucial must win states for BJP? Next the probable and no chance?

Yiddish (New York Jewish) saying "Overfeed on hope, die of starvation!"

Ramana Sir,

I am not rubbishing their survey at all. I am just saying that if they can show seat tally for states with lesser sample size than Jharkhand (when they have much higher pops), why hide Jharkhand. That is all. But as you can see, I have congress internal survey from reliable sources and they match the CSDS survey reasonably. BJP should onlee expect 10-11 seats from KA unless ticket allocation is absolutely perfect.

I am with you (once bitten twice shy). If you ask my personal take based on all the inputs (Twitter, Private Surveys, Telecasted Surveys) and add the general survey bias in favor of BJP (Indian statisticians still dont go deep inside India to do surveys where a good chunk still vote for Congress). Add to this the fact that, BJP is an expert in pulling defeat from the jaws of victory, while congress is an expert in pulling victory from the jaws of defeat.

So my take,

BJP- 120+UP+Bihar
Cong: 120+AP

Disclaimer, if a Congress and BSP alliance takes place, all bets are off.

As an additional data point, the most conservative estimate would be using the lower end of BJP tally from the CSDS survey after they are done with all states and add some numbers for the states where they have not projected seats and take the upper end for congress.

Rahul Mehta · Post by **Rahul Mehta** » 22 Jan 2014 20:01

R Jagannathan ‏@TheJaggi 55s

Is Chidambaram in Davos to rubbish political rivals? Why should taxpayer pay for his junket when he plays politics? http://bit.ly/1aKVRDp

The thread has become backup of twitter

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 22 Jan 2014 20:19

If the BJP gets its act right, picks clean candidates and NM pushes they can go upto 14-15 in Karnataka.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 22 Jan 2014 20:22

SanjayC wrote:^^ What about the injuries on upper parts of her body? Her death was sudden due to administration of some drug. I am surprised the son is talking like this.

There was tweet from someone who reads Malayalam news papers saying they counted ~15 injuries to neck and wrists.

Most likely she was held and force fed the pills with a couple of choke holds.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 22 Jan 2014 20:23

My calculation is if they get alliances right, BJP/NDA can win about 60 seats in east+south. So they need about 140 seats from north+west to get a shot at Govt formation.

Atri · Post by **Atri** » 22 Jan 2014 20:33

1 Andhra Pradesh 42 - 4
2 Arunachal Pradesh 2 - 1
3 Assam 14 - 3
4 Bihar 40 - 20
5 Chhattisgarh 11 - 7
6 Goa 2 - 2
7 Gujarat 26 - 25
8 Haryana 10 - 3
9 Himachal Pradesh 4 - 1
10 Jammu and Kashmir 6 - 1
11 Jharkhand 14 - 12
12 Karnataka 28 - 10
13 Kerala 20 - 1
14 Madhya Pradesh 29 - 27
15 Maharashtra 48 - 20
16 Manipur 2
17 Meghalaya 2
18 Mizoram 1
19 Nagaland 1
20 Odisha 21 - 3
21 Punjab 13 - 3
22 Rajasthan 25 - 23
23 Sikkim 1
24 Tamil Nadu 39 - 3
25 Tripura 2
26 Uttar Pradesh 80 - 30
27 Uttarakhand 5 - 2
28 West Bengal 42 - 3
Union Territory wise
S.No. Name of State Member
1 Andaman and Nicobar Islands 1
2 Chandigarh 1
3 Dadra and Nagar Haveli 1 - 1
4 Daman and Diu 1 - 1
5 Delhi 7 - 4
6 Lakshadweep 1
7 Puducherry 1

BJP - 210 conservative estimate.

Virupaksha · Post by **Virupaksha** » 22 Jan 2014 20:39

andhra pradesh - 4, bjp cannot win that on their own strength.
gujarat -25, not based on local. There are some seats where bjp will not win period, give around 20 in a realistic semi-rosy scenario.
north east (except assam) - give 1 decent, 3 very rosy scenario.

Arjun · Post by **Arjun** » 22 Jan 2014 20:41

Folks here were pessimistic about Maharashtra, but the survey says the opposite:

Election Tracker: a double anti-incumbency in Maharashtra

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 22 Jan 2014 20:43

Atri wrote:1 Andhra Pradesh 42 - 4
7 Gujarat 26 - 25
9 Himachal Pradesh 4 - 1
13 Kerala 20 - 1
15 Maharashtra 48 - 20
20 Odisha 21 - 3
24 Tamil Nadu 39 - 3
27 Uttarakhand 5 - 2
28 West Bengal 42 - 3
5 Delhi 7 - 4

BJP - 210 conservative estimate.

Atri ji, Red means i feel that you are overestimating (in fact in all cases, barring MH, GJ, BJP will draw blank), blue is where you are underestimating

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 22 Jan 2014 20:46

muraliravi wrote:
So my take,

BJP- 120+UP+Bihar
Cong: 120+AP

MuraliRavi-ji,
Your BJP estimate bit seems fine to me, except my own conservative estimate gives it around 125-130 rather than the 120 you have given it, but that is fine. But how did you manage 120 for the Congress without Andhra? Is that the maximal estimate for the Congress?

Virupaksha · Post by **Virupaksha** » 22 Jan 2014 20:49

Atri,

I believe that 210 number is a very rosy estimate and mostly has seats which have more than a fair share of bjp winning. If everything, I mean everything works, that is the number which Bjp will win. Realistically expect around 180, because of local factors, rebels etc.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 22 Jan 2014 20:54

nageshks wrote:
muraliravi wrote:
So my take,

BJP- 120+UP+Bihar
Cong: 120+AP
MuraliRavi-ji,
Your BJP estimate bit seems fine to me, except my own conservative estimate gives it around 125-130 rather than the 120 you have given it, but that is fine. But how did you manage 120 for the Congress without Andhra?

J&K-1, HP-2, Punjab and Chandigarh-4, Haryana -3, Delhi-1, Uttaranchal-2, UP-7, Bihar-3 (in alliance with lalu), JH-3, Assam-8, NE-6, UT's-4, Orissa-8, WB-6, TN-1, Kerala-15, KA-17, MH-10, GJ-5, Raj-3, MP-5, Chhattisgarh-4 ~~ approx 120.

rohitv · Post by **rohitv** » 22 Jan 2014 20:54

CNN-IBN showing BJP to be in the range of 25-33 in Maharashtra as per CSDS Poll tracker !!! If that happens we will have BJP scoring 100+ in MH,MP,Guj,CG and Rajasthan!!

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 22 Jan 2014 20:57

rohitv wrote:CNN-IBN showing BJP to be in the range of 25-33 in Maharashtra as per CSDS Poll tracker !!!

Is that BJP or NDA? If it is BJP, I am afraid I just don't believe it. BJP traditionally contests only 26-28 seats in MH.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 22 Jan 2014 20:58

Virupaksha wrote:andhra pradesh - 4, bjp cannot win that on their own strength.
gujarat -25, not based on local. There are some seats where bjp will not win period, give around 20 in a realistic semi-rosy scenario.
north east (except assam) - give 1 decent, 3 very rosy scenario.

Virupaksha ji,

I would in general agree with you on Gujarat, but not this time. The last 2 elections BJP has not done well in Gujarat in the LS. Both in 2004 and 2009, BJP and Congress were around 46-47 vs 43-44% vote share range. This time something tectonic has happened, there have been 4 surveys (2 main stream and 2 private or by ngo research companies like taleem foundation), show BJP at 54-55% vote share and congress at 34%. See 20% is too big a gap. With that type of vote share diff, 25/26 is realistically possible, unless BJP is gaining only in the seats it usually wins and winning those seats at 70-30, while no change in congress seats; that would seem unrealistic.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 22 Jan 2014 21:00

nageshks wrote:
rohitv wrote:CNN-IBN showing BJP to be in the range of 25-33 in Maharashtra as per CSDS Poll tracker !!!
Is that BJP or NDA? If it is BJP, I am afraid I just don't believe it. BJP traditionally contests only 26-28 seats in MH.

They are showing 28-34 for NDA. Has anyone noticed that this time, they are showing such a wide range in each state, nationwide, they will give something like 150-190 for BJP, which is a useless prediction, just to satisfy congress.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 22 Jan 2014 21:04

muraliravi wrote: J&K-1, HP-2, Punjab and Chandigarh-4, Haryana -3, Delhi-1, Uttaranchal-2, UP-7, Bihar-3 (in alliance with lalu), JH-3, Assam-8, NE-6, UT's-4, Orissa-8, WB-6, TN-1, Kerala-15, KA-17, MH-10, GJ-5, Raj-3, MP-5, Chhattisgarh-4 ~~ approx 120.

Not a bad maximal estimate for the Cong, MuraliRavi-ji. I think your UTs, WB, TN and NE are all exaggerated a bit, and Kerala very highly (Believe me - Cong. government in Kerala is loathed by both Christians and Hindus today, because of pandering to the IUML. Also, you are giving Cong. every seat in Kerala (IUML contests 2, and one of the Kerala Cong. factions contests 1-2, so out of 16-17, you are giving Cong. 15, which is highly exaggerated. They will be very lucky to touch 10 (most unlikely IMO)). My own maximal estimate for the Cong. puts it around 100-110.

Nitesh · Post by **Nitesh** » 22 Jan 2014 21:07

With these estimates coming from our gyanis, I guess no way BJP is going to form a government. Seems like battle is lost

Need to see how it happens in 2019

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 22 Jan 2014 21:07

nageshks wrote:
muraliravi wrote: J&K-1, HP-2, Punjab and Chandigarh-4, Haryana -3, Delhi-1, Uttaranchal-2, UP-7, Bihar-3 (in alliance with lalu), JH-3, Assam-8, NE-6, UT's-4, Orissa-8, WB-6, TN-1, Kerala-15, KA-17, MH-10, GJ-5, Raj-3, MP-5, Chhattisgarh-4 ~~ approx 120.
Not a bad maximal estimate for the Cong, MuraliRavi-ji. I think your UTs, WB, TN and NE are all exaggerated a bit, and Kerala very highly (Believe me - Cong. government in Kerala is loathed by both Christians and Hindus today, because of pandering to the IUML. Also, you are giving Cong. every seat in Kerala (IUML contests 2, and one of the Kerala Cong. factions contests 1-2, so out of 16-17, you are giving Cong. 15, which is highly exaggerated. They will be very lucky to touch 10 (most unlikely IMO)). My own maximal estimate for the Cong. puts it around 100-110.

I agree, but I used the vote share/seat predictions that the csds poll threw out, becos on kerala I have not seen any other survey of late.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 22 Jan 2014 21:08

Nitesh wrote:With these estimates coming from our gyanis, I guess no way BJP is going to form a government. Seems like battle is lost Need to see how it happens in 2019

Kyun bhai, nothing like that. Worst case they will hit 165. I think at that stage, congress will break or other parties like jdu can break. BJP can get the other 100 MP's if they play it smart after elections.

Whats more important is the trend. Let cvoter also do their predictions this week. Over the weekend I will make a nice chart showing what these 2 polls, csds and cvoter have predicted for BJP in their previous trackers. Then we can see seat/vote share change for every 6 months. So by may 2014, you may add 10-15 seats more for BJP.

Nitesh · Post by **Nitesh** » 22 Jan 2014 21:13

muraliravi wrote:
Kyun bhai, nothing like that. Worst case they will hit 165. I think at that stage, congress will break or other parties like jdu can break. BJP can get the other 100 MP's if they play it smart after elections.

Whats more important is the trend. Let cvoter also do their predictions this week. Over the weekend I will make a nice chart showing what these 2 polls, csds and cvoter have predicted for BJP in their previous trackers. Then we can see seat/vote share change for every 6 months. So by may 2014, you may add 10-15 seats more for BJP.

Thanks for all the work you are putting, but no way they should not get in to the jod tod otherwise we will not be able to see the governance, this situation should not arise at all

. Will be waiting for the new chart

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 22 Jan 2014 21:17

Nitesh wrote:
muraliravi wrote:
Kyun bhai, nothing like that. Worst case they will hit 165. I think at that stage, congress will break or other parties like jdu can break. BJP can get the other 100 MP's if they play it smart after elections.

Whats more important is the trend. Let cvoter also do their predictions this week. Over the weekend I will make a nice chart showing what these 2 polls, csds and cvoter have predicted for BJP in their previous trackers. Then we can see seat/vote share change for every 6 months. So by may 2014, you may add 10-15 seats more for BJP.
Thanks for all the work you are putting, but no way they should not get in to the jod tod otherwise we will not be able to see the governance, this situation should not arise at all . Will be waiting for the new chart

In Tamil, there is a saying "Oru Nalla Kaariyathukku, Aayiram Poi Sollalam - For one good thing to happen, you can say 1000 lies". Similarly India is going through a very bad phase, to get rid of the evil called congress and their b-teams, some jod-tod is ok. As long as they go for by-elections fast and resolve the instability in the seats where jod-tod was done.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 22 Jan 2014 21:19

AP is possible with TDP. MH current poll (CSDS) show nearly 30. UK and HP are underestimates while WB, TN, OR may be overestimates. So they may cancel out and give around Atri's number unless there is a surge in UP.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 22 Jan 2014 21:28

Atri wrote: 14 Madhya Pradesh 29 - 27

Atri-ji,
Apart from what MuraliRavi-ji said about the others, 27 out of 29 in MP is also an overestimate. There are some INC stalwarts like Kantilal Bhuria (Jhabua), Jyotiraditya Scindia (Gwalior/Guna) and Kamal Nath (Chhindwara) who are not easily defeated. I would say 25 in MP is also a very favourable fall of events for the BJP.

Atri · Post by **Atri** » 22 Jan 2014 21:35

I tend to believe that 30 seats in UP is underestimate. BJP, if things carry on as they are, will cross 40-45 by April. UP will be a game changer this time. So even in cas of overestimates, UP will balance them out.

They have to reach 180 without UP. If they can, then UP will give them huge number of seats. Because the effect percolates. regions surrounding UP is so charged up that BJP wins 170-180 without UP, it is going to have compounding effect in UP in BJP's favor.

It may sound overestimate now, but know that Tsunamo has not yet hit India in its full magnitude. From now on it is the skill of BJP and Amitbhai to time that wave to coincide with LS polls.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 22 Jan 2014 21:36

nageshks wrote:
Atri wrote: 14 Madhya Pradesh 29 - 27
Atri-ji,
Apart from what MuraliRavi-ji said about the others, 27 out of 29 in MP is also an overestimate. There are some INC stalwarts like Kantilal Bhuria (Jhabua), Jyotiraditya Scindia (Gwalior/Guna) and Kamal Nath (Chhindwara) who are not easily defeated. I would say 25 in MP is also a very favourable fall of events for the BJP.

Bingo, their best has been 25. I would say MP+CH, if they get 30-32, it should be considered very good.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 22 Jan 2014 21:53

Atri wrote:I tend to believe that 30 seats in UP is underestimate. BJP, if things carry on as they are, will cross 40-45 by April. UP will be a game changer this time. So even in cas of overestimates, UP will balance them out.

They have to reach 180 without UP. If they can, then UP will give them huge number of seats. Because the effect percolates. regions surrounding UP is so charged up that BJP wins 170-180 without UP, it is going to have compounding effect in UP in BJP's favor.

It may sound overestimate now, but know that Tsunamo has not yet hit India in its full magnitude. From now on it is the skill of BJP and Amitbhai to time that wave to coincide with LS polls.

The problem with UP is that the BJP organisation has completely withered away in most places. To overcome this problem, the BJP, today, is heavily dependent on outside help (Baba Ramdev and his organisations, the various Sangh outifits, etc) today. While I do not doubt the commitment of these groups, the problem will be one of integrating them all into one solid, seamless campaign. If elections were to be held in December 2014, I would have unhesitatingly given the BJP 40-45 seats in UP. But time is infernally short, and organisation is being built ground up. Whether Amitbhai can rebuild the BJP organisation in UP in less than an year is open to question. Also, you are overlooking the desperation of the UP Muslims to stop NaMo at any cost. In every constituency where the BJP has a chance of winning, most Muslims will vote unitedly for the party that has the best chance to defeat the BJP. BJP has to get 33-35% of the vote to get around 45 seats (the kind of vote they were getting in the mid 90s), whereas SP/BSP would only need 28% of the vote for the same result. After that, every step will mean a huge leap for the BJP. If 35% of the vote in UP gets the BJP some 45 seats, 40% of the vote will get them 60-65 seats. But 33-35% of the vote is essential for the BJP and they have to grow from 15% to 35% in less than a year in the most populous state in India. This is a difficult march for the BJP.

Virendra · Post by **Virendra** » 22 Jan 2014 22:04

Howbout sharing one's own tweet

#Kejri claims Uganda consulate praised #somnathbharti's action.
Ugandan women claim #somnathbharti led mob attack. One of them is playing..

Virendra · Post by **Virendra** » 22 Jan 2014 22:11

Atri wrote:I tend to believe that 30 seats in UP is underestimate. BJP, if things carry on as they are, will cross 40-45 by April. UP will be a game changer this time. So even in cas of overestimates, UP will balance them out.

They have to reach 180 without UP. If they can, then UP will give them huge number of seats. Because the effect percolates. regions surrounding UP is so charged up that BJP wins 170-180 without UP, it is going to have compounding effect in UP in BJP's favor.

It may sound overestimate now, but know that Tsunamo has not yet hit India in its full magnitude. From now on it is the skill of BJP and Amitbhai to time that wave to coincide with LS polls.

I second that.
To see a sample of how much people want Modi, just look at Rajasthan polls.
BJP - 163/200
Cong - 21/200
Others - 16/200
BJP's last score was? -- 32.
From around 150, Congress is at its lowest score in Rajasthan, for independent India's entire electoral history.
Even BJP never did so poor.
I mean Gehlot wasn't so bad .. like 21 seats seat bad. So then why this wildest of the swings?
Clearly people are doing NaMo jaap day and night. There's a huge motivation to anoint him up there, leading us.

Regards,
Virendra

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 22 Jan 2014 22:13

165+ for BJP is an NDA government. 200+ for BJP is a Ram Mandir implementable NDA government.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 22 Jan 2014 22:19

For a constitutional amendment Govt you need more.