Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

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gandharva
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by gandharva »

Reds Citing Vedas to Increase Support Base

It’s mythology over ideology for the Communist party of India as a survival strategy. Left staring at a rapidly shrinking support base, and unable to attract the new generation of voters, the CPI is turning to the power of Hinduism to stay relevant.


Vedas and Upanishads are part of our collective past. Why should we let the RSS hijack it? We all have lessons to learn from these ancient texts, :roll: :roll: ” said a CPI leader when asked about the apparent incongruity in the topic of the seminar and the tenets of Leftist ideology.

http://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/ ... 020165.ece
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Shanmukh »

muraliravi wrote: And by the way for all the kerala lovers: here are some facts

1901: Hindu pop % 69%
2001: Hindu 56%,

So i guess we should not worry about the 13% dip and live in cuckoo land being painted. For the interfaith glories, i can also give stories of how my close friend's sister (a hindu malayali) got married to a x-tian malayali and has made her life hell. Her daughter cannot even learn bharatanatyam as her mom in law feels its a hindu dance and forget going to temple, so much for keep their own faith.

To add more spice, if you recall during the BJP regime in rajasthan from 2003-08, there was a pastor burning issue regarding him distributing anti-hindu pamplets. See her (raje's) interview to kutta thapar, she clearly says that the pamplets and ideological fathers of these movements come from kerala. And these kerala trained nuns are responsible for a lot of soul harvesting in our North East. Enuf of all these sugar coated stories, once upon time, it was a glorious hindu kingdom. People are trying to make x-tianity in kerala almost an integral part of ancient kerala which it was certainly not.

Even worse, the kerala movie directors (hindu/x-tian) i guess are running out of funding in kerala (of course a state that runs only on nri money, becos there is no industry whatsoever to speak of) are now coming into TN to make movies. Guess what you wll notice it in every TN movie where these guys have a hand, weddings in churches, characters will x-tian names. Please stay away from my state, will you

As far as BJP in concerned, I am sure in 1801, when Hindu pop would have most likely been around 80% in kerala, if elections were held, they would have had a chance, not any more.

Anyway can we please discuss elections here, mallu fantasies can be painted in other threads
MuraliRavi-ji,
I did distinguish between the original non-proselytising Christians and the newer proselytising ones. You are right in saying that there is every reason to be worried. But both Suraj and I just argued against lumping all Christians in one mass. Not all Christians are proselytising ones (particularly the older ones). Even in 1800, before much of the missionary activity began, about 10-12% of Kerala was Christian (today it is about 19%). And this older non-proselytising bunch of Christians can constitute a vote base for the BJP, since they have little in conflict with Hindus.

Even Islam had a strong presence in Malabar from the days of Vasco da Gama. If you read his chronicles, he says Calicut was a Moorish (Muslim) state, because although the king was a Hindu, there were plenty of Muslims.

That is all I will say. Anyway, let us get back to the elections at hand.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Muppalla »

nageshks ji. Thanks for the assam stuff.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Muppalla »

gandharva wrote:Vedas and Upanishads are part of our collective past. Why should we let the RSS hijack it? We all have lessons to learn from these ancient texts, :roll: :roll: ” said a CPI leader when asked about the apparent incongruity in the topic of the seminar and the tenets of Leftist ideology.
:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:
abhik
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by abhik »

What percentage of the demographic does each Christian sect make up in Kerala.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Suraj »

muraliravi: Your tone apart, the content of your post is primarily suited to the political Christianity thread, but I'd just like to point out that you're making the same mistake I mentioned in my very first post on the topic here - of treating Christians as one bloc in Kerala and extending the actions of one group to the entire lot of them. This thread is about the elections, and I wrote about the electoral support that's that's available for the BJP within certain Kerala Christian communities themselves - not just as my assertion, but that of an Orthodox Christian member here.

When someone provides some random anecdote about 'Kerala nun' or 'Kerala pastor' doing something, it would help to also mention what kind of Christian they are - Syrian Orthodox ? Pentecostal ? Catholic ? Without such information, such an anecdote amounts to tarring every adherent of their religion, and really serves NO political benefit, or understanding of the details of the Christian community. A diatribe against the actions of Christians, or for that matter, of their population growth, is not directly related to this thread.

A top level view of Kerala's Christian demographics provides very little metadata. They can and should have as many children as they're able to support, because that's their own personal prerogative, as much as it is that of a Hindu. They're a wealthy demographic with its hands in all kinds of business. As such they have the money to support having more kids. What exactly does 'ZOMG! Their population is up!' do ? Without a breakdown on conversion-based growth vs organic growth, there's little or no value in those numbers. And if you're going to discuss their demographics further, I suggest you use the political Christianity thread, which is much more appropriate for it.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Victor »

The "Syrian" Christians and Jews of Kerala are hugely important for the future of India's fight against the so-called "secularism" of the West. Thanks to Suraj and Avarachan for highlighting them and their position in these elections.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Muppalla »

nageshks wrote: Even Islam had a strong presence in Malabar from the days of Vasco da Gama. If you read his chronicles, he says Calicut was a Moorish (Muslim) state, because although the king was a Hindu, there were plenty of Muslims.

That is all I will say. Anyway, let us get back to the elections at hand.
Anywhere and every community there will be good people and loyal people. I will bet even in Kashmir valley there will be a 100% loyal Muslims as any others. When we get to discussion (which is always an edgy discussion on any day on any forum) of religion we always have to see the big picture. Who is being used by others outside to weaken?

As this is elections thread let us take religion-politics part and in that aspect, why do Kerala Christians (of all denominations) and kerala Muslims vote only to Congress party and not the communists there? Purer hindus there go with communists. It is not different from other states. Take the case of WB and even there Communists get negligible minority votes. Except for Goa where Monohar Parrikaar was able to breach the barriers a little bit. Folks can call this or that small group as very assimilated because of a 1000 year history but the facts are different. What is BJP's most non-secular act or Communists most non-secular acts against Christians to not hangout with any national party other than the congress party in spite of its bad governance?

It is a historical fact that along with Hyderabad, Junagadh the substantial section Muslims of Kerala also wanted to align with Pakistan during independence.

It is how you see it and what it did and how it changed the strategic landscape. It is a place where some free shooting naval folks come and shoot few fishermen and state's own religious bodies lobby for clemency to the foreign shooters. I believe the Catholic church did it (not the Syrian orthodox)
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Shanmukh »

Suraj wrote: A top level view of Kerala's Christian demographics provides very little metadata. They can and should have as many children as they're able to support, because that's their own personal prerogative, as much as it is that of a Hindu. They're a wealthy demographic with its hands in all kinds of business. As such they have the money to support having more kids. What exactly does 'ZOMG! Their population is up!' do ? Without a breakdown on conversion-based growth vs organic growth, there's little or no value in those numbers. And if you're going to discuss their demographics further, I suggest you use the political Christianity thread, which is much more appropriate for it.
Suraj,
Most Christian conversions occurred in the last days of the 19th century and the first four-five decades of the 20th century for reasons that are too long for me to go into here. Note my emphasis on the word conversions. Even before any missionary activity, Christians constituted about 10-12% of Kerala. By the 1950 and 60s, Christians constituted around 21% of the population. They have actually been decreasing in proportion due to low birth rate (as have Hindus) and are now about 19% of the population. Islam is increasing almost completely due to high birth rate. From around 18% in 1951, they are now at around 25%. The older Syrian and Orthodox churches even support abortion, and the Christian ranting against abortion has had no impact on the older Kerala Christians. There has been a dearth of nuns and priests, because low birth rates and richer communities means that very few agree to allow their kids to become priests. As I said, I am completely opposed to proselytisation of the kind that has been going on in South India, but I am loathe to condemn all Christians because of the word. Many are not proselytising groups, and we should be careful not to tar them all with the same brush.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Shanmukh »

Muppalla wrote: As this is elections thread let us take religion-politics part and in that aspect, why do Kerala Christians (of all denominations) and kerala Muslims vote only to Congress party and not the communists there? Purer hindus there go with communists. It is not different from other states. Take the case of WB and even there Communists get negligible minority votes. Except for Goa where Monohar Parrikaar was able to breach the barriers a little bit. Folks can call this or that small group as very assimilated because of a 1000 year history but the facts are different. What is BJP's most non-secular act or Communists most non-secular acts against Christians to not hangout with any national party other than the congress party in spite of its bad governance?
Muppalla-ji,
But Kerala Christians do vote for the Communists. It is by no means set in stone that the Kerala Christians do not vote for the Communists. Sindhu Joy, Alphons Kannantham - all of these were Communist leaders, who commanded much support from their respective communities. Also, some factions of the Kerala Congress are based on almost entirely Christian support, and opportunistically support both Congress and Communists, based on the offers they get. It is mainly newer Catholics and Protestants that support the Congress heavily. The rest can and do vote for the Communists.
It is how you see it and what it did and how it changed the strategic landscape. It is a place where some free shooting naval folks come and shoot few fishermen and state's own religious bodies lobby for clemency to the foreign shooters. I believe the Catholic church did it (not the Syrian orthodox)
The older Christian sects, which do not proselytise at all, have as much to fear from the newer proselytising Christian types and Islamists as Hindus do. Jews fear both the proselytising Christians and Islamists as well. Would it not be in the interest of the Hindus to make an alliance with these non-proselytising Christians?
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Arjun »

Muppalla wrote:As this is elections thread let us take religion-politics part and in that aspect, why do Kerala Christians (of all denominations) and kerala Muslims vote only to Congress party and not the communists there? Purer hindus there go with communists. It is not different from other states. Take the case of WB and even there Communists get negligible minority votes.
Come, come Muppalla ! Much as I dislike the Congress - if Hindus voted for Communists and minorities voted for Congress, its the minorities who seem to have shown more "nationalism" in the past and the Hindus who have been the much bigger dorks.

That's unlike the situation today - where the BJP very clearly stands for development and growth as compared to either the Congress and the Left. I only hope there are enough Muslims and Christians today who are as turned on by the aspirational & developmental message of Modi as many Hindus evidently are.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Muppalla »

Arjun wrote: Come, come Muppalla ! Much as I dislike the Congress - if Hindus voted for Communists and minorities voted for Congress, its the minorities who seem to have shown more "nationalism" in the past and the Hindus who have been the much bigger dorks.
I am not talking about older days. Nagesh's post is true before 2000. However, as congress was taken over by western vested interests the more minorities polarized towards congress party. On this day, you may disagree but vote to communist may be slightly sensible than a vote to congress in states such as Tripura and may be even in Kerala.

As a side note just see Tripura's communist party which is no-nonsense leftist drivel but a loyal state growth party. May not be great achiever but no means like a Bangladeshi migrant sucker like WB counterparts. Just like we can't brush all minorities under same carpet we can't brush all commie state units under same brush.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Muppalla »

nageshks wrote: The older Christian sects, which do not proselytise at all, have as much to fear from the newer proselytising Christian types and Islamists as Hindus do. Jews fear both the proselytising Christians and Islamists as well. Would it not be in the interest of the Hindus to make an alliance with these non-proselytising Christians?
Off course you can make. Manohar Parrikar did it very intelligently in Goa.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by KLP Dubey »

Arjun wrote:That's unlike the situation today - where the BJP very clearly stands for development and growth as compared to either the Congress and the Left. I only hope there are enough Muslims and Christians today who are as turned on by the aspirational & developmental message of Modi as many Hindus evidently are.
Like in some other states, in KL Shri Modi will need BOTH the development agenda AND the Hindu angle to get close to a win.

The "development agenda" could appeal to many in a broad cross-section of the population. However, it is also necessary to wean Hindus (and also the Orthodox Xtians) off voting for the Congress/UDF and the goddamned communists/LDF.

Among the FCs, the only numerically significant are the Nairs (including 'allied' castes). A large number of Nairs vote for Congress for sentimental reasons + secular delusions. Also there is no separate vaishya caste in KL like there is in GJ, unfortunately.

Among the BCs, the Ezhavas are key. Problem is they are a big vote bank of the commies. They need to be convinced to abandon the LDF.

"God's own country" is infiltrated with the "devil's own people". Breaking this grip is an uphill task. Shri Modi and the party will need to get the support of NSS, SNDP, and Hindu (and orthodox Xtian) religious institutions. Getting the Maharaja of Travancore to indicate support for Shri Modi would also be a good psychological win.
Last edited by KLP Dubey on 27 Jan 2014 09:58, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Shanmukh »

AGP leaders seem to be moving to BJP

http://www.asianage.com/india/2-agp-ex- ... in-bjp-760

High time, I say! Merge AGP into BJP!
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Suraj »

nageshks wrote: Suraj,
Most Christian conversions occurred in the last days of the 19th century and the first four-five decades of the 20th century for reasons that are too long for me to go into here.
Since you know about this, you probably also know what happened and why. Very briefly for the sake of context I'll provide a background: those conversions were primarily in the OBC Ezhava community, and were characterized as 'protest conversions' because of the rigid stratification of the time. It was Swami Vivekananda himself who called the state a lunatic asylum. The man who put a stop to it was Sri Narayana guru, and his SNDP organization and self-respect movement among Ezhava Hindus. But for him, Kerala would perhaps have been majority Christian today.

This is somewhat similar to Dravidian movement in TN. Both were self respect movements. But there were key differences. The TN movement was very aggressively anti-Brahminical. SNDP avoided that confrontationalism and simply set up a parallel system of temples and schools, until the Temple Entry Proclamation. The TN movement developed into a political movement. But the key thing in Kerala is, the SNDP did not.

This group is both Kerala's largest demographic and BJP's largest potential voting bloc, but they primarily vote Communist today. Together with the Nairs and Orthodox Christian folks, they have the potential to be BJP's long term base in Kerala. There's already a recent understanding between SNDP and NSS, while the Marthoma and Jacobite leaders are talking to Modi. He doesn't have to do anything more than guarantee them all long term support from an effective state BJP (not the non-existent one of today).

Doing that will take time, because there's no state BJP base to speak of, and there'll be no en masse voting just by screaming 'Modi!'. They'll have to work for it, but if they do, there's a readymade voting base for the BJP in Kerala.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Arjun »

KLP Dubey wrote: Also there is no separate vaishya caste in KL like there is in GJ, unfortunately.
This seems to be root of the problem - or at least one of the major ones.

GJ and KL are both sea-faring states and probably had the same trading links with the Gulf and West. Due to its strong Vaishya traditions - GJ could conduct this trade as equals and in many cases as the dominant partner. While KL seems to have been more at the receiving end.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Shanmukh »

Arjun wrote: GJ and KL are both sea-faring states and probably had the same trading links with the Gulf and West. Due to its strong Vaishya traditions - GJ could conduct this trade as equals and in many cases as the dominant partner. While KL seems to have been more at the receiving end.
Kerala's mercantile class was destroyed first by the Sultanate of Madurai. It recovered a bit under the Vijayanagar empire, but not fully (Vijayanagar was not a navally minded empire and this is the true tragedy of South India. The conversions of Malaysia and Indonesia to Islam can be laid directly at the door of the Vijayanagar empire, which relied heavily on Arabs for trading and never properly revived the Kerala/TN based mercantile classes. But then, Vijayanagar was locked, most of the time, in an existential struggle with the Muslims, and had little time or energy to spare on the trading classes of the far south). What was left of the Keralite and Tamil mercantile classes was destroyed by the Portuguese in the 16th century. Afterwards, south Indian naval traders went into a death spiral.
Last edited by Shanmukh on 27 Jan 2014 11:01, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Supratik »

I am with nagesh and to a certain extent Suraj on this. If you want to break the duopoly in KL it has to be an alliance between Hindus and old Christians - the Goa model. I don't think Muslims will align for BJP and I am not sure how liberal the community is given that a party like the IUML is their sole representative.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Hari Seldon »

nageshks wrote:AGP leaders seem to be moving to BJP

http://www.asianage.com/india/2-agp-ex- ... in-bjp-760

High time, I say! Merge AGP into BJP!
Err, no. Let this trickle become a flood. Will ensure that the de-facto (rather than de-jure) merger happens more on lotus' terms. Also, it is ultimately human capital which is the foremost component of political muscle. When the people move, influence moves with them.

I have similar hopes from the JDU in Bihar as well... en masse desertions and lotus migrations.... And maybe, hopefully from T-TDP as well as CBN's TDP becomes a seemandhra based force.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Avarachan »

A few posters have suggested that India's Christians can be divided into those who proselytize and those who don't. I would suggest a different division--between groups which are foreign-funded and foreign-manned, and those which are Indian. I can't write a long post about this, because I have no desire to get into a forum flame-war. However, without foreign funding and foreign staffing, the loony fringe of Indian Christianity would die out on its own. Its theology and cultural life is shallow, and can't survive an extended philosophical encounter with a sophisticated opponent.

Furthermore, there is a legitimate national-security interest in barring foreign meddling in India's religious affairs: just look at what's been done to Syria. There is precedent from other countries in how to do this: most countries (including Russia, France, Turkey, and Indonesia) monitor and regulate religious activity by foreigners.
Suraj wrote: This group is both Kerala's largest demographic and BJP's largest potential voting bloc, but they primarily vote Communist today. Together with the Nairs and Orthodox Christian folks, they have the potential to be BJP's long term base in Kerala. There's already a recent understanding between SNDP and NSS, while the Marthoma and Jacobite leaders are talking to Modi. He doesn't have to do anything more than guarantee them all long term support from an effective state BJP (not the non-existent one of today).
Suraj, could you email me? I'm writing an article I'd like you to look over. My address is my username dot the numbers nine seven at the Google service. Thanks.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Karan M »

Avarachan wrote:
Karan M wrote:Suraj, based on your experience how would you classify the Kerala IM community? Have seen a lot of fundamentalist streak in them in recent days, a sea change from my college days when the Kerala IMs i knew were drinking, carousing free wheeling souls. Malappuram especially gets a pretty nasty tag and the love jihad stuff (also extended to parts of Kar) does not help.
Karan M, can you email me? Your m35 address no longer works. My address is my username dot the numbers nine seven at the Google service. Thanks. I need to contact you regarding a writing project.
Will do over the coming weekend, would you be able to wait till then? Am snowed under at work. :(
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by KLP Dubey »

Avarachan wrote:A few posters have suggested that India's Christians can be divided into those who proselytize and those who don't. I would suggest a different division--between groups which are foreign-funded and foreign-manned, and those which are Indian.
Practically speaking, aren't these divisions pretty much the same thing ? Foreign funds are not coming in due to the "goodness of the heart" of the Xtian organizations in the West. They expect and measure payback in terms of the number of souls harvested.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Karan M »

Arjun wrote:
Muppalla wrote:As this is elections thread let us take religion-politics part and in that aspect, why do Kerala Christians (of all denominations) and kerala Muslims vote only to Congress party and not the communists there? Purer hindus there go with communists. It is not different from other states. Take the case of WB and even there Communists get negligible minority votes.
Come, come Muppalla ! Much as I dislike the Congress - if Hindus voted for Communists and minorities voted for Congress, its the minorities who seem to have shown more "nationalism" in the past and the Hindus who have been the much bigger dorks.

That's unlike the situation today - where the BJP very clearly stands for development and growth as compared to either the Congress and the Left. I only hope there are enough Muslims and Christians today who are as turned on by the aspirational & developmental message of Modi as many Hindus evidently are.
Arjun saar, I would make a distinction between the Congress of yesteryears and the Congress of today, ditto for the Communists.

Corrupt, confused it may have been even then (with the likes of Nehru helming it) but there were still many staunch India first types in INC during the 60's, 70's & early 80's. JN Dixit, PVN Rao etc - all fall into that category. Indira herself was a fire & brimstone breathing autocrat who did a lot of damage to India with her divide and rule policies within, but stood firm against external pressure time & again. So many people in India did identify with the INC. IMHO, the rot truly began in Rajiv Gandhis time - he was more a child of privilege and insulated from India in many ways & has accelerated thereafter post his death, with all sorts of characters coming to power & their only interests are their own (community, personal wealth etc) and as such the INC has moved from being a drain on India & contributing to its underperformance, to something that is completely and wholly disastrous.

Similarly, communists are regarded by many today as well meaning fuddie duddies but luddites. Instead, during the 60's, they actively supported the PRC against India & refused to take a stand against it. Throughout 70's and 80's, archives like the Mitrokhin one, note they were funded externally. Even so, in areas like J&K, and even Kerala IIRC, there were many Indian communists who were & are staunchly pro Indian. I found it amusing that many western groups cribbed about how 'obdurate' these folks were (and some were christians and hence thought to be push overs for the western POV)! What I personally find to be a complete intellectual failure amongst the communists is that they make a distinction between various groups & slot them into convenient buckets based on "class war". Its rubbish TBH.

Just a few thoughts..
Last edited by Karan M on 27 Jan 2014 13:17, edited 1 time in total.
Karan M
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Karan M »

Avarachan wrote:A few posters have suggested that India's Christians can be divided into those who proselytize and those who don't. I would suggest a different division--between groups which are foreign-funded and foreign-manned, and those which are Indian. I can't write a long post about this, because I have no desire to get into a forum flame-war. However, without foreign funding and foreign staffing, the loony fringe of Indian Christianity would die out on its own. Its theology and cultural life is shallow, and can't survive an extended philosophical encounter with a sophisticated opponent.

Furthermore, there is a legitimate national-security interest in barring foreign meddling in India's religious affairs: just look at what's been done to Syria. There is precedent from other countries in how to do this: most countries (including Russia, France, Turkey, and Indonesia) monitor and regulate religious activity by foreigners.
Well said sir. Only one thing is that proselytization (debate about the legal aspects apart) really raises the hackles of the Hindu community as it is not one which aggressively proselytizes anymore (a few groups apart). Its probably the biggest cause of the friction which comes into play from time to time. I wish senior christian leaders from the older groups realized this and worked to tone down these activities because its just creating schisms which the newer groups exploit and fan into more trouble. Growing up in an era where these divisions were more limited, one wishes things improved for the better.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by gandharva »

Is this going to have any impact on upcoming LS elections in KA?

Image
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Anindya »

Heard from a friend in the know that AAP has begun associating itself with the PFI in both KA and Kerala - google only shows up a few tweets on this. Any significant evidence on this?
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by jagga »

From Rediff:
16:38 Union ministers plan life after 2014 L polls: A correspondent from Delhi reports: Four senior Union ministers plan to go back to practising law after the 2014 Lok Sabha polls.

Others will take up party work seriously.

Many of them may turn into regular columnists for weekly magazines. Few of them will prefer to participate in debates on news channels.

Others, who have witnessed a controversial political innings, would prefer to spend their summer vacation in European countries.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by jagga »

16:35 AICC's covert advt operation runs into toruble: A correspondent reports from Delhi: The campaign of the AICC's media cell has been caught on a wrong foot.

Many regional dailies were paid cash, not issued cheques, to carry those advertisements.

Some of them even turned down the cash payment for the advertisements.

The technique adopted by the AICC's media cell was unique.

The advertisement managers of these regional dailies were called to undisclosed places to collect their payment.

In fact, some dailies like Sakshi Telugu have decided to carry a story on the AICC's media policy.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by muraliravi »

nageshks wrote:Folks,
Here is a constituency by constituency analysis of the Assam Lok Sabha constituencies, by a blogger based in Assam.

http://arindambaruah.wordpress.com/2013 ... ing-point/

It is one person's opinion. I agree with most of it, but in some respects, I disagree with him. In particular, the person avers that Tezpur is impossible for the BJP. I don't agree with that. If Moni Kumar Subba could be beaten in Tezpur, so can Ripun Bora.

http://arindambaruah.wordpress.com/2014 ... dibrugarh/

The Dibrugarh analysis is very good, but the name may not be accurate. Sarbananda Sonowal, last I heard, was planning to contest from Lakhimpur, not Dibrugarh. But if Sarbananda Sonowal does not contest from Dibrugarh, it will be another intense fight, this time between Kamakhya Prasad Tasa and Paban Singh Ghatowar (and Kamakhya Prasad Tasa is another BJP stalwart). Just swap the name of Sonowal for Tasa.

And here is an analysis of Mangaldoi. Since we don't know who is going to contest from Mangaldoi, take that `Congress stalwart' with a pinch of salt.

http://arindambaruah.wordpress.com/2014 ... mangaldoi/
Awesome find Nagesh ji. This is what we need, seat by seat analysis.

Thanks
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by pankajs »

http://news.rediff.com/commentary/2014/ ... 03f13c5d31

A correspondent from Delhi reports: The Congress party's internal assessment for the 2014 Lok Sabha polls has made some dire predictions. The assessment predicts that the party will not cross a double digit tally.

The party will do well in Karnataka and Maharashtra, winning anywhere between 13 and 15 seats in these states.

The Congress will perform dismally in Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, where it will not get beyond single digits.

The survey predicts that the Congress may end up with 75-80 Lok Sabha seats.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by pankajs »

gandharva wrote:Is this going to have any impact on upcoming LS elections in KA?
I do not know but some prominent KA folks are raising issue
-------------------------------------------->>
Mohandas Pai ‏@MDPai05 20h

@RanaAyyub @maxmelbin we are grown enough to learn the truth.Tipu was a bigot,he destroyed many of our temples,killed and converted people
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by pankajs »

NDTV >> Congress nominates Digvijaya Singh for Rajya Sabha from Madhya Pradesh: sources
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Singha »

dont know which formation Pai sir supports, but respect for bringing up the issue.

clearly, KA is sought to be the next secure caliphate area for the INC to lick its wounds, recover and storm back in 2019.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by muraliravi »

GSR Survey

Overall UP
BJP 30%
BSP 23%
SP 22%
INC 14%
RLD 2%
AAP 4%

Overall Bihar
BJP 35%
RJD+LJP+INC 28%
JDU 24%
AAP 2%

Looks like the csds survey on bihar matches these results, just that csds gave 39 to bjp and 20 to jdu
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Chandragupta »

Wow I'm really stunned to see MD Pai bashing Tipu Sultan left, right & center. He seems to be somewhat cured of secularitis.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Sagar G »

Singha wrote:dont know which formation Pai sir supports, but respect for bringing up the issue.

clearly, KA is sought to be the next secure caliphate area for the INC to lick its wounds, recover and storm back in 2019.
If that's the plan then post 2014 election Amit Shah should be handed the charge for the state.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by ramana »

Our HNair knows hims well. He is not a secularist. He sent me a copy of reprint of Will Durant book on India.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by muraliravi »

IBTL 2014 Latest survey

Image

Image

Key Findings from UP

A social churn is being witnessed among the backward class, including Yadavs who are found to shift towards BJP

Even the Yadavs in the hardcore loyal bases of Samajwadi Party namely Etawah, Kanpur etc are willing to vote BJP due to the Modi factor

AAP is present in limited pockets but completely destroying Congress and BSP in those areas

The sporadic Modi Wave seem to have intensified in the last 1 month.

So, everything that could go wrong is going wrong for the Congress. The party is expected to win just 3 seats, its ally RLD would bag merely 1 seat. However the good news is that possible ally and 1st timer AAP is winning 4 seats

Please also note how BSP performs, pretty much expected. Unless she gets below 20% vote, her seat tally stays fixed at 20 because of 20 odd dalit dominated seats and unless she crosses 30% vote share, she is unlikely to see any increase in her seat tally. This is an added reason as to why allying with congress gives her zilch advantage as congress votes dont get transferred to her while her votes help congress.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Supratik »

muraliravi wrote:GSR Survey

Overall UP
BJP 30%
BSP 23%
SP 22%
INC 14%
RLD 2%
AAP 4%

Overall Bihar
BJP 35%
RJD+LJP+INC 28%
JDU 24%
AAP 2%

Looks like the csds survey on bihar matches these results, just that csds gave 39 to bjp and 20 to jdu
The UP nos are not good. BH so-so.
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