Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 02 Feb 2014 03:35

It's important that Jativadi politics in India stops. If Jativadi politics stops and Congress collapses, Indian Mullahs cannot align with any party. The Mandalization of Indian politics is coming undone. Yadavs and Jats are moving to BJP.

Muslims would only have Jatavs to align with and that may not suffice.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 02 Feb 2014 04:16

Shonu wrote:I expect the BJP to hit close to or just above 300 on its own.. just watch

WTH...?? Where are these numbers coming from? I would so dearly love to believe them that I don't trust 'em anymore... Especially after the '09 debacle, are we as a group setting ourselves up for another case of misplaced expectations...

Even with lotus maxing out it strongholds (let's take 3-quarter century sized bites for better chewing, shall we?)

We have (best case for solo lotus, mind you): one from UP+Bihar (50+25 = 75)

One from Guj + RJ'stan + MP (24+24+27 = 75)... that's 150 ... so far, so good

One quarter century each from the North (Delhi+Punj+HP+UKD+Haryana+Jammu), the east (CG + JH + Asom + Odisha) and one from south-central (MH + KA).... that's 225, so far so good

That still leaves us a full half-century short of simple majority.... And all we have left is TN+KL+AP+WB+NE....all of which for lotus solo may, put together, not break into double digits. onlee...

The only hope is NDA partners (in PJ, MH. TN and AP) putting in another blowout performance and scraping through the requisite 50 odd to take pre-poll NDA past the 272 mark. Onlee...

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 02 Feb 2014 04:28

Hari Seldon wrote:
Shonu wrote:I expect the BJP to hit close to or just above 300 on its own.. just watch
WTH...?? Where are these numbers coming from? I would so dearly love to believe them that I don't trust 'em anymore... Especially after the '09 debacle, are we as a group setting ourselves up for another case of misplaced expectations...

Even with lotus maxing out it strongholds (let's take 3-quarter century sized bites for better chewing, shall we?)

We have (best case for solo lotus, mind you): one from UP+Bihar (50+25 = 75)

One from Guj + RJ'stan + MP (24+24+27 = 75)... that's 150 ... so far, so good

One quarter century each from the North (Delhi+Punj+HP+UKD+Haryana+Jammu), the east (CG + JH + Asom + Odisha) and one from south-central (MH + KA).... that's 225, so far so good

That still leaves us a full half-century short of simple majority.... And all we have left is TN+KL+AP+WB+NE....all of which for lotus solo may, put together, not break into double digits. onlee...

The only hope is NDA partners (in PJ, MH. TN and AP) putting in another blowout performance and scraping through the requisite 50 odd to take pre-poll NDA past the 272 mark. Onlee...

Well said Seldon sir, lets not set us up for another disappointment. In fact let me tone down your predictions in a couple of areas, I would say UP + Bihar is more like 60 (best case, i am not even discussing pessimistic or realistic). I have not seen any main stream survey or even AUG/Other twitter survey put BJP consistently close to 50 in UP. CSDS gave 41-45, so avg is around 45. I will for sure revise Bihar downwards after this alliance has gone through. So that 15 less.

Next, North is the weak zone sir, I expect Del+Pun+HP+UKD+Haryana+Jammu = 15-17 seats. So thats about 10 seats lesser. Delhi is gone sir, whatever screw up these jokers do there, every govt has some honeymoon and the 25% cong vote (primarily mullahs and entitlement seekers) will shift lock stock barrel to AAP. So i dont expect BJP to do well there. Pun (3), HP(3/4), UKD (4/5), Har(4/10), J&K (1/6) is more like it.

So summarily I would reduce 25 seats off the 225, though there is some underestimation in MH+KA = 25 (I expect them to hit 30 quite easily there). And they will also get about 5-6 seats from Goa and UT's. Thats about 10 seats.

But thats it, I dont see them going beyond 200-210. Unless they hit gold in UP.

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 02 Feb 2014 04:47

muraliravi wrote:
Hari Seldon wrote:I expect the BJP to hit close to or just above 300 on its own.. just watch

WTH...?? Where are these numbers coming from? I would so dearly love to believe them that I don't trust 'em anymore... Especially after the '09 debacle, are we as a group setting ourselves up for another case of misplaced expectations...

Even with lotus maxing out it strongholds (let's take 3-quarter century sized bites for better chewing, shall we?)

We have (best case for solo lotus, mind you): one from UP+Bihar (50+25 = 75)

One from Guj + RJ'stan + MP (24+24+27 = 75)... that's 150 ... so far, so good

One quarter century each from the North (Delhi+Punj+HP+UKD+Haryana+Jammu), the east (CG + JH + Asom + Odisha) and one from south-central (MH + KA).... that's 225, so far so good

That still leaves us a full half-century short of simple majority.... And all we have left is TN+KL+AP+WB+NE....all of which for lotus solo may, put together, not break into double digits. onlee...

The only hope is NDA partners (in PJ, MH. TN and AP) putting in another blowout performance and scraping through the requisite 50 odd to take pre-poll NDA past the 272 mark. Onlee...
Well said Seldon sir, lets not set us up for another disappointment. In fact let me tone down your predictions in a couple of areas, I would say UP + Bihar is more like 60 (best case, i am not even discussing pessimistic or realistic). I have not seen any main stream survey or even AUG/Other twitter survey put BJP consistently close to 50 in UP. CSDS gave 41-45, so avg is around 45. I will for sure revise Bihar downwards after this alliance has gone through. So that 15 less.

Next, North is the weak zone sir, I expect Del+Pun+HP+UKD+Haryana+Jammu = 15-17 seats. So thats about 10 seats lesser. Delhi is gone sir, whatever screw up these jokers do there, every govt has some honeymoon and the 25% cong vote (primarily mullahs and entitlement seekers) will shift lock stock barrel to AAP. So i dont expect BJP to do well there. Pun (3), HP(3/4), UKD (4/5), Har(4/10), J&K (1/6) is more like it.

So summarily I would reduce 25 seats off the 225, though there is some underestimation in MH+KA = 25 (I expect them to hit 30 quite easily there). And they will also get about 5-6 seats from Goa and UT's. Thats about 10 seats.

But thats it, I dont see them going beyond 200-210. Unless they hit gold in UP.

#AUG is predicting 240-250 for BJP.As per him addl seats coming from UP, AP, Maha, Karnataka, Odisha and Asom!

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 02 Feb 2014 05:22

Sushma Mum on Poll Strategy

http://www.newindianexpress.com/states/ ... 031600.ece

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 02 Feb 2014 05:37

muraliravi wrote:Well, here is the best news of the day

http://www.sunday-guardian.com/news/mns ... m-ls-polls

Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) president Raj Thackeray is exploring the option of not fielding candidates in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections to hide the disarray in his party. Thackeray is likely to announce his decision at a rally in Pune on 9 February.

This will be a biggest blow to INC+NCP as the field will be straight contest. In a straight contest there is no way BJP+SS+Others will fail. INC will sure head for a nought.

Great news

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 02 Feb 2014 05:45

gandharva wrote:Sushma Mum on Poll Strategy

http://www.newindianexpress.com/states/ ... 031600.ece

I zimbly don't trust sushmaben anymore. Not after her antics in AP especially and before that, screwing up chances in KA. She should be kept away from ay position that is vulnerable to incompetence or sabotage, IMHO...

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 02 Feb 2014 06:33

gandharva wrote:
#AUG is predicting 240-250 for BJP.As per him addl seats coming from UP, AP, Maha, Karnataka, Odisha and Asom!

Well, we can only verify this after the elections. As of now, it does seem far fetched. The issue is that we are expecting a very high strike rate in BJP strongholds, which may not happen all the time.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 02 Feb 2014 07:04

muraliravi wrote: So summarily I would reduce 25 seats off the 225, though there is some underestimation in MH+KA = 25 (I expect them to hit 30 quite easily there). And they will also get about 5-6 seats from Goa and UT's. Thats about 10 seats.

But thats it, I dont see them going beyond 200-210. Unless they hit gold in UP.

MuraliRavi-ji,
I wish I shared your confidence about Karnataka. The reason for my worry is that there are many seats that are essentially going to go down to the wire (at least 9 by my own estimation). This will be a battle of the cadres - who can get out more of their supporters to vote. If polling in Karnataka is held in two phases (as is the usual case), it is going to be advantage BJP - which will be able to redeploy their more limited, but highly motivated cadre. But if the polling for all 28 Karnataka seats is held in one go, it is going to be very disadvantageous for the BJP. The reason is that the Congress cadres in Karnataka outnumber the BJP 2 to 1 (at least, possibly even more). To make matters worse, BJP cadres are all located in a few areas - the coast, Coorg, western Chikmaglur and Shimoga districts, Belgaum, Bijapur and Bagalkot, apart from Bangalore city. In these areas, BJP folks can match the Congressmen in numbers. But in most areas where the battle is going to go down to the wire, BJP cadres are going to be outnumbered (particularly central Karnataka, Hyderabad Karnataka and Mysore and Chikballapur). So, it is an uphill battle for the BJP in Karnataka. I am sure they can win around 8 or so easily, but the rest will come down to luck (polling schedule) and good management. Given the preponderance of the Congress cadres (even accounting for the fact that Congress cadres are dis-spirited now).

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 02 Feb 2014 12:30

Hari Seldon wrote:
gandharva wrote:Sushma Mum on Poll Strategy

http://www.newindianexpress.com/states/ ... 031600.ece
I zimbly don't trust sushmaben anymore. Not after her antics in AP especially and before that, screwing up chances in KA. She should be kept away from ay position that is vulnerable to incompetence or sabotage, IMHO...

She has been sidelined with minimal fuss. Good job by Modi and RNS.

subhamoy.das · Post by **subhamoy.das** » 02 Feb 2014 13:16

It is now all Rajnath and Namo show in BJP. The posters speak for them selves. In Kolkata, there is not a single poster in my area where LKA or AVB pictures are there.

Chandragupta · Post by **Chandragupta** » 02 Feb 2014 14:51

Anyone saw the latest Bharat Nirman ad from Khangress?

Hospitals : Humne banaye
Mobile : Humne banaye
Polio Booth : Humne banaye
Metro : Humne banaye
Schools : Humne banaye

So much arrogance that it will actually put off people. I am beginning to think NaMo has a mole inserted in their PR team.

JohnTitor · Post by **JohnTitor** » 02 Feb 2014 15:45

Hari Seldon wrote:
Shonu wrote:I expect the BJP to hit close to or just above 300 on its own.. just watch
WTH...?? Where are these numbers coming from? I would so dearly love to believe them that I don't trust 'em anymore... Especially after the '09 debacle, are we as a group setting ourselves up for another case of misplaced expectations...

Even with lotus maxing out it strongholds (let's take 3-quarter century sized bites for better chewing, shall we?)

We have (best case for solo lotus, mind you): one from UP+Bihar (50+25 = 75)

One from Guj + RJ'stan + MP (24+24+27 = 75)... that's 150 ... so far, so good

One quarter century each from the North (Delhi+Punj+HP+UKD+Haryana+Jammu), the east (CG + JH + Asom + Odisha) and one from south-central (MH + KA).... that's 225, so far so good

That still leaves us a full half-century short of simple majority.... And all we have left is TN+KL+AP+WB+NE....all of which for lotus solo may, put together, not break into double digits. onlee...

The only hope is NDA partners (in PJ, MH. TN and AP) putting in another blowout performance and scraping through the requisite 50 odd to take pre-poll NDA past the 272 mark. Onlee...

A contact in the cadre told me this.. they are aiming for all 380 or so seats they are contesting but expect no less than 272 (absolute min).. each seat is being heavily scrutinised with risk/reward analysis (as in they aren't just contesting for the sake of it).

JohnTitor · Post by **JohnTitor** » 02 Feb 2014 15:47

Chandragupta wrote:Anyone saw the latest Bharat Nirman ad from Khangress?

Hospitals : Humne banaye
Mobile : Humne banaye
Polio Booth : Humne banaye
Metro : Humne banaye
Schools : Humne banaye

So much arrogance that it will actually put off people. I am beginning to think NaMo has a mole inserted in their PR team.

If that is arrogance, then what is this??

https://twitter.com/LucidWitness/status ... 4365952000

JohnTitor · Post by **JohnTitor** » 02 Feb 2014 15:52

Lilo wrote:
Karan M wrote:...And how Modi was the target of the entire campaign not just the BJP. As far back as 1998 or thereabouts, Barkha ma'am is spewing venom against Modi on some video. So quite clearly the system had recognized this guy as a potential threat who couldn't be coopted way back, and tried to remove him...
Karan M ji,
can you share the link . I tried searching but unable to find by myself.
Reminded of *that* artecal by Karan Thapars in HT 2007 which identifies NaMo as the longterm threat to congi mafia and suggests "eliminating" him. Now Barkha's 1998 is a decade further back in time that too before the Gujarat.

lilo ji

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=701wn9blrMg

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 02 Feb 2014 16:08

so amma goes with CPI

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 02 Feb 2014 17:56

Unemployed man slaps Hooda

http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/man- ... 41327.html

svenkat · Post by **svenkat** » 02 Feb 2014 18:00

If one looks at Bharat Nirmaan advts released by I&B Ministry in TV,they show two photographs-one of DrMMS looking bashfully down like a young bride of olden days and Antonio Maino bright,confident,looking straight.The photographs are placed together such that Dr MMS turbans top is at same level with Antonia forehead while his eyes are way below Sonias eyes.The scumbag Manish Tewari at work.

During the Con bhaitaak in Delhi,there was not one cheer when Dr MMS listed his achievements in infrastructure,social sector,employment .There was a cold silence during MMS speech while the sycophants cheered the dumb idiot.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 02 Feb 2014 18:49

Lilo wrote:
Karan M wrote:...And how Modi was the target of the entire campaign not just the BJP. As far back as 1998 or thereabouts, Barkha ma'am is spewing venom against Modi on some video. So quite clearly the system had recognized this guy as a potential threat who couldn't be coopted way back, and tried to remove him...
Karan M ji,
can you share the link . I tried searching but unable to find by myself.
Reminded of *that* artecal by Karan Thapars in HT 2007 which identifies NaMo as the longterm threat to congi mafia and suggests "eliminating" him. Now Barkha's 1998 is a decade further back in time that too before the Gujarat.

Here it is, in fact it is from 1996
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=701wn9blrMg

In this one she calls him "one of the most controversial figures in Gujarat politics".

Virendra · Post by **Virendra** » 02 Feb 2014 20:59

Kejriwal is trying so hard to get martyred ... that it is painfully clear why

Bharat Nirmaan reminds me of India Shining

These slogans have a nasty way of biting back into their own masters.

Lilo · Post by **Lilo** » 02 Feb 2014 22:33

Shonu ji and karan m ji Thanks.

From TN .

AIADMK, CPI Announce Alliance for LS Polls
2 February 2014

Attempting to form a "secular and democratic alternative" to dethrone Congress from power at the Centre, AIADMK and CPI today announced their decision to enter into an alliance ahead of the coming Lok Sabha polls.

Addressing the press at her Poes Garden residence here along with CPI leaders A B Bardhan and Sudhakar Reddy, AIADMK chief and Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Jayalalithaa said, "AIADMK and CPI have decided to enter into an alliance to face the upcoming Lok Sabha elections together."

Senior CPI leader Bardhan said "I endorse whatever she has said. Our alliance will lead to victory. We will succeed."

To a query on the increasing clamour among AIADMK cadres to project Jayalalithaa as their Prime Ministerial candidate, Bardhan said "If we succeed in the election, as I said the prospects RPT prospects will open up."

Jayalalithaa intervened to say "All that will come later. Our aim is to win all 40 seats in Tamil Nadu and Puducherry."

"Our slogan for the elections is Peace, Prosperity, Progress," she said, replying a query on what would be the issues her alliance would project for the polls.

Reddy said the alliance is a "secular and democratic alternative" to win the elections...
http://m.outlookindia.com/items.aspx/?a ... ecid=13289

New Party Launched in TN, Supports Modi for PM Post - Any promise in this guy ?
2 February 2014

Expressing its desire to be part of an alliance to be formed by BJP in Tamil Nadu for the Lok Sabha polls, a new party 'Kongunadu Jananayaka Katchi' was launched here today to focus on and protect the rights of agriculturists and industries in the state's western region.

"Since all the committee members were keen to see BJP candidate Narendra Modi as the Prime Minister, the party would be part of an alliance to be formed by BJP which would emerge as an alternative to AIADMK and DMK in the State," G K Nagaraj, founder-President of KJK, told reporters.

Nagaraj, who recently quit as General Secretary from 'Kongunadu Munnetra Kazhakam', was elected founder-President of KJK, along with 51 committee members, at the launch of the party this evening.

"The main objective of the party is to preserve the cultural and traditional values of Tamil Nadu and bring all the population cutting across the barriers of caste, creed, religion and language, under one umbrella for peace and communal harmony," Nagaraj said....

http://m.outlookindia.com/items.aspx/?a ... ecid=13048

Couple of encourageing incidents...

Haryana CM Hooda Slapped by Youth
2 February 2014

A youth slapped Haryana Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda, who was riding an open jeep, in full public view in Panipat this evening and was taken into custody immediately.

The Chief Minister had gone to Panipat, some 80-km from Delhi, to inaugurate and lay foundation stone of various projects.

As Hooda's Maruti Gypsy was making its way through the crowded places, a youth identified as Kamal Mukhija broke the security ring and slapped the Chief Minister.

A senior police officer told PTI that the youth, who was suffering from depression, was immediately detained.

A case had been registered against him under various sections of the IPC, the officer said.
http://m.outlookindia.com/items.aspx/?a ... ecid=13289

UP Police on Massive Hunt for Azam Khan's Lost Buffaloes
2 February 2014

Samajwadi Party leader Azam Khan has been robbed in his home ground - Rampur. Of his buffaloes.

According to the police, the thieves knocked down a part of Khan's farmhouse wall, cut open the thick iron chains that were used to bind the cattle and stole not one, but seven buffaloes.

The entire district administration in Rampur has launched a one of a kind, high level search operation.

Tracking down the robbers and returning the buffaloes to Khan has become the top priority of the district police.

Combing operations are being carried out in fields by all the three police stations that fall under the district and sniffer dogs are being used to trace the buffaloes.
http://m.outlookindia.com/items.aspx/?a ... ecid=13289

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 03 Feb 2014 00:44

Nitish Kumar left red-faced as Sharad Yadav calls him a ‘gossip’

http://www.news18.com/videos/nitish-kum ... 48771.html

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 03 Feb 2014 02:40

Heard on twitter that Azam Khan's buffaloes were last seen attending Modi rally in Meerut.

Azam Khan ki gayi bhains paani men!

amdavadi · Post by **amdavadi** » 03 Feb 2014 02:58

Azam khan ki gayi bhains modiji ki rally mein!!!!!!!

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 03 Feb 2014 04:20

Rishi Bagree ‏@rishibagree 18h

TMC has threatened bus drivers & asked them not to ferry people to Narendra Modi Rally in Kolkata on feb 5 Working against all odd

Eh eh - is the TMC so promptly adopting the Communist tactics? Any people from Kolkata with more knowledge of this?

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 03 Feb 2014 04:27

Nagraj quit from the party without citing specific reason but it turns out he wanted to ally with bjp while the leader did not. Nagraj has clout and will pull people from old party. How much is to be seen...

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 03 Feb 2014 04:31

Gus wrote:Nagraj quit from the party without citing specific reason but it turns out he wanted to ally with bjp while the leader did not. Nagraj has clout and will pull people from old party. How much is to be seen...

Essentially, the KMK is splitting, correct? KJK is a BJP pasand version of the KMK and has the same goals as the parent organisation?

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 03 Feb 2014 04:55

Yes. Kmk founder 'best ramasamy' is a respected member of the gounder community. But he is old and not into active politics. Nagarajs party may well consume the parent party.

kenop · Post by **kenop** » 03 Feb 2014 05:14

nageshks wrote: Eh eh - is the TMC so promptly adopting the Communist tactics? Any people from Kolkata with more knowledge of this?

Some amount of success can be attributed to copying the tactics perfected by the commies. Didi couldn't have come this far without using the same street level options.

VinodTK · Post by **VinodTK** » 03 Feb 2014 06:20

Narendra Modi blames Congress for Telangana turmoil

:
:
Accusing Congress of driving a wedge between states and communities, Modi referred to the Telangana issue and said that the entire Andhra Pradesh is engulfed in the fire started by the manner in which the Congress had handled the issue. "It is because they are following a policy of divide and rule. You keep sowing seeds of poison and destroying the country."
:
:

VinodTK · Post by **VinodTK** » 03 Feb 2014 06:24

Maharashtra LS polls: Cong faces Narendra Modi swing, BJP Raj Thackeray bouncer

krisna · Post by **krisna** » 03 Feb 2014 20:29

Javagal Srinath joins BJP in KA.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 03 Feb 2014 20:52

Has BJP decided to finish off JD(S) in this election?

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 03 Feb 2014 23:47

Deve Gowda and his family are a curse on the KA. They got lot of lives and will not go down parmenantly.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 04 Feb 2014 00:03

Dravid and Kumble next after Javagal. if they can at least one among RD or AK, it would be a great success. both men are highly respected, just like Javagal.

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 04 Feb 2014 03:13

krisna wrote:Javagal Srinath joins BJP in KA.

LOL. This should be fun if really true.

http://indianexpress.com/article/india/ ... ining-bjp/

Devegowda will probably be sleeping when the election result is declared. Upon hearing of his defeat he will probably declare that "I am only a poor farmer anyway".

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 04 Feb 2014 19:03

Published on Feb 04, 2014
By Pradyot Lal
The importance of being J Jayalalithaa: Sahara Samay

Author trying hard to portray Amma as the answer to Modi.

The radically altered terms of discourse merit urgent reconsideration. In case Arvind Kejriwal’s AAP prevents the BJP from getting even 180 seats, and the fedeal front regional parties do well, Tamil Nadu can get a genuine opportunity to send a prime minister to Delhi; just make no mistake about that, even when the project will need all the skills, manoeuvring and political machinations that Amma can bring to bear. After all, super-sized egos are in contention everywhere, and while throwing her hat in the ring, she will have to contend with wannabes such as the Samajwadi Party’s Mulayam Singh Yadav, Naveen Patnaik of the BJD and Nitish Kumar. Also very much on the horizon, though far.far away from the federal front are Mayawati and Mamata Banerjee: it is an election in which a thousand dreams are riding on the possibility of becoming PM.

But even with so many claimants around, Jayalalithaa holds a strong edge; Mulayam has been weakened thanks to the UP Muslims’ outrage at Muzaffarnagar and its brutal aftermath.Nitish too has an uphill task in Bihar where the BJP will do everything to inconvenience him. But hang on... in West Bengal the electorate seems not really amused by Didi’s track record and her pyrotechnics; in spite of the Left Front extremely gingerly placed in Bengal, Mamata is unlikely to sweep the state like she had done in the Assembly elections. Mayawati could be a factor, but perhaps not so big enough a proposition that can challenge Jaya and the federal front combine.

BJP’s karmabhoomi, and the testing ground for Modi is likely to be Uttar Pradesh; however, Muslims could votw tactically in a bid to fix responsibility for the Gujarat carnage All said and done, the community is unlikely to vote as a single bloc for or against any party.

Whatever the outcome of the elections — Jayalalithaa is in the happy position of being on the winning side. Unless of course AAP and BSP score well and change things… even then, Modi may end up a worried man indeed!

With
Left ~25
AIADMK ~27
SP ~15
JD-U ~6
BJD ~14
JD-S ~3
JVP-M ~2

Third Front comes at 92 seats. UPA may not get anymore than 100. TMC may get ~27. BSP may get ~20. AAP may get 3-4 if it is lucky.
So there is a slight chance but just a slight one that a Third Front can really come together and form a government.

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 04 Feb 2014 19:17

That cartoon with hat is mafia don Anant Kumar Singh.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 04 Feb 2014 19:19

RajeshA wrote: With
Left ~25
AIADMK ~27
SP ~15
JD-U ~6
BJD ~14
JD-S ~3
JVP-M ~2

Third Front comes at 92 seats. UPA may not get anymore than 100. TMC may get ~27. BSP may get ~20. AAP may get 3-4 if it is lucky.
So there is a slight chance but just a slight one that a Third Front can really come together and form a government.

Rajesh ji,

Difficult, very difficult. Bsp wont support if SP is in, same with tmc and left. Only thing is i still believe UPA will cross 125

gunjur · Post by **gunjur** » 04 Feb 2014 23:21

Not sure if this was posted or even hinted over here, but anyways...

Yeddyurappa was talking to press this evening and has told that as per high command wishes he maybe contesting 2014 elections from Shivamogga seat.
=================

This is a list of probabale candidates from bjp in karnataka(again many might have already seen this).

Some are really strange choices and few like srinath and kumble are more or less not possible. Shobha karandlaje from mysore is a interesting one. Even Smt Mallikarjuna bande from bidar is surprising. Didn't understand why a muslim candidate from Bengaluru central?? Pratap simha (@mepratap on twitter) is silent on contesting elections. One more candidate is upendra (director/actor), at least as of now this is again a trial balloon only. Really no idea who that balasubramaniam is?? At the looks of it, double digit seats is a certain probability.

===============
But the most shocking candidate is sriramulu from bellary. There were reports in kannada media that BSR congress wants to merge with "mother party" i.e. congress, but various congress mla's are against this move. So does bjp want to take back people whom even congress discards as nuisance?? Looks like bjp is missing its days of factional fights, resort politics.

IMO if bjp really wants to recover its potency in karnataka, they better keep bsr congress et al away. If the "mother" of bsr gang in bjp high command says that since KJP has been brought back into fold, so should the "sons" be taken back into the fold, then its better to de-merge KJP as well. If that takes even much longer to recover, so be it. Its for bjp to decide whether they should be "penny wise and pound foolish". Hopefully bjp will not weaken its karnataka unit just for some vote % in 2-3 seats(which is anyway debatable). Hopefully this statement of yours truly is not considered as trolling.