Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 09 Feb 2014 23:16

^^^
I like the term "theoretical morality". basically fake morality masquerading under false pretenses.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 10 Feb 2014 00:08

Shabbir Ahmed ‏@Ahmedshabbir20
DMK-DMDK-CONG back door negotiations underway...10 seats fr DMDK & 6 seats fr Cong is the latest speculation that is doing rounds....

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 10 Feb 2014 01:22

johneeG wrote:So, Pranav Babu says that people should oust the present regime and not be tempted by 'populist anarchy'...which is equivalent to suggesting without naming that people should vote for NaMo.

Then, NaMo goes to Vangal and says that Pranav was stopped from being Pradhani by the dynasty.

Something cooking between NaMo and Pranav?

A few more deliveries of fresh Gujarat coast fish for Pranab-da should do the trick.

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 10 Feb 2014 01:26

Hari Seldon wrote:saar, for our own sakes, we ought to be realistic. A 80-100 haul out of the 120 in UP-Bihar will end the election in one shot. Much as I would like that to happen, its so unlikely that one cannot seriously count on it.

I have to agree with the poster Niran on this. 80-100 is being realistic. I don't know if you have been to UP anytime in the recent past. There is a huge Modi wave. Agreed one should not be complacent. The party needs to sustain and drive home the advantage. There are still about 100 days left.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 10 Feb 2014 02:50

nageshks wrote:
muraliravi wrote:This is bad, really bad

http://www.newindianexpress.com/states/ ... vejD17PqnN

Look at the probables, grapewine is that 9/18 are sure losers, 6 in tight battle. Of the other 10 seats in KA, BJP cannot breach 8 anyway. So of the 20, if they go with this list only 11 are in contest of which 6 are tightly locked.

Nagesh ji, any thoughts
You are quoting Praveen Patil for your grapevine, correct? Let us just say - he has his own set of biases, particularly with regard to Karnataka. In that list of probables, I can see about 6 almost certain winners, and another 8 toss ups. But all in all, I only expect around 10-12 for the BJP in Karnataka.

Yes Sir I am quoting him. 10-12 sounds right by law of averages of all surveys including praveen's own survey. Good, I'll be happy if they can get 12.

Someone had this formula BJP Seats = 2*(UP+Bihar)+100.

The 100 is the easy part of this equation and it will come from MH (16-18), Raj (21-23), CH (7-9), GJ (21-23), MP (25-27) and UT's.

I am going most conservative unlike many others on UP + Bihar, I assume they will only get 30-33 in UP and 18-20 in Bihar making it roughly 50 together. So for 2*(UP+Bihar), they need to get the 50 elsewhere. That is why the person who framed this equation put it specifically like that. Because their performance in North India (JK, Punjab, UTT, HP, Haryana, Delhi) is liked to hawa. I think it makes sense. So to hit 200 even with my conservative estimates in UP and Bihar, they need 50 seats from 3 regions (roughly equally)

North India (JK, Punjab, UTT, HP, Haryana, Delhi): This is the most vulnerable region in my opinion if there is an AAP effect (which we are missing) that can damage BJP. Overall I expect 1+2+4+3+2+1 = 13 seats conservatively. (Again I read here and there including IBTL survey which clearly says that cong is gaining in punjab due to AAP splitting NDA votes). Haryana, I am not confident just due to CSDS survey (all other surveys cvoter, nielson, ibtl give BJP 5-6 seats) while csds gives BJP 0. How they be so different, something is amiss. Delhi shows no signs (from surveys) for voting for BJP. I mean its tough, the muslims votes of congress will vote en masse for AAP to defeat BJP. They cant win it with their 30-35% base.
Eastern India (Jharkhand, Assam, Arunachal, Orissa, WB): (9-11)+(2-3)+(0-1)+1+0 = 13-15 seats roughly here
South India (AP, TN, KL, Karnataka): 1+1+(0-1)+(10-12)= 13 seats roughly.

So all these give 40 seats. So the equation is not that bad.

Sridhar K · Post by **Sridhar K** » 10 Feb 2014 07:00

The grapevine was that Vijaykanth was demanding INR 500Cr for the alliance with BJP and hence the delay. Congress and DMK will oblige him to reduce the BJP tally. Even Amma may fund him indirectly to pocket 39 seats. Like in any other state, politics in TN is only about money right from the Municipal/Panchayat levels. The only difference with other state perhaps is the scale of money in TN being very high.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 10 Feb 2014 07:12

Sridhar K wrote:The grapevine was that Vijaykanth was demanding INR 500Cr for the alliance with BJP and hence the delay. Congress and DMK will oblige him to reduce the BJP tally. Even Amma may fund him indirectly to pocket 39 seats. Like in any other state, politics in TN is only about money right from the Municipal/Panchayat levels. The only difference with other state perhaps is the scale of money in TN being very high.

I dont think Jaya will do all that. The minute she sees a prepoll alliance of cong-dmk-vijaykanth, she will agree for prepoll alliance with bjp. But I am almost 90% sure that stalin will hold his sway and will not allow a dmk-cong alliance. It is just kanimozhi and useless rootless wonders in her camp that are pushing for a dmk-cong alliance for obvious reasons. Stalin does not care two hoots about her.

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 10 Feb 2014 07:20

muraliravi wrote:I dont think Jaya will do all that. The minute she sees a prepoll alliance of cong-dmk-vijaykanth, she will agree for prepoll alliance with bjp. But I am almost 90% sure that stalin will hold his sway and will not allow a dmk-cong alliance. It is just kanimozhi and useless rootless wonders in her camp that are pushing for a dmk-cong alliance for obvious reasons. Stalin does not care two hoots about her.

I am more and more inclined to agree with Dr. Swamy regarding the TN situation. The party should prepare for the election on its own. Allies are welcome if there is a shared objective and no arm-twisting demands. But the moment these small-time drunkards and egomaniacs get uppity they should be asked to leave. If you are going to spend 500 Cr, might as well spend on developing the cadre than giving booze money to good-for-nothing alcoholics.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 10 Feb 2014 07:48

KLP Dubey wrote:
muraliravi wrote:I dont think Jaya will do all that. The minute she sees a prepoll alliance of cong-dmk-vijaykanth, she will agree for prepoll alliance with bjp. But I am almost 90% sure that stalin will hold his sway and will not allow a dmk-cong alliance. It is just kanimozhi and useless rootless wonders in her camp that are pushing for a dmk-cong alliance for obvious reasons. Stalin does not care two hoots about her.
I am more and more inclined to agree with Dr. Swamy regarding the TN situation. The party should prepare for the election on its own. Allies are welcome if there is a shared objective and no arm-twisting demands. But the moment these small-time drunkards and egomaniacs get uppity they should be asked to leave. If you are going to spend 500 Cr, might as well spend on developing the cadre than giving booze money to good-for-nothing alcoholics.

Tension mat lo yaar, BJP wont ally with DMDK. Swamy was creating problems in alliance even with vaiko, that is the problem.

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 10 Feb 2014 08:46

muraliravi wrote:Tension mat lo yaar, BJP wont ally with DMDK. Swamy was creating problems in alliance even with vaiko, that is the problem.

Tension le mere dushman....and as far as Dr. Swamy is concerned, I think his opposition was principled. However, the party moves forward as a united front. I don't hear Dr. Swamy decrying the alliance on daily basis.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 10 Feb 2014 08:53

muraliravi wrote: Tension mat lo yaar, BJP wont ally with DMDK. Swamy was creating problems in alliance even with vaiko, that is the problem.

PMK and DMDK find it hard to be on same side. They both want more or less same seats. BJP will have to choose between them. In this choice of evils, I pick the more evil, but more predictable PMK. DMDK is JJ on hyper steroids where unpredictability is concerned.

darshhan · Post by **darshhan** » 10 Feb 2014 08:57

I have a feeling that Tamil Nadu might be the surprise package of the coming general elections. BJP and allies need to work hard though.

jamwal · Post by **jamwal** » 10 Feb 2014 12:51

BJP can win atleast one seat of Jammu and 2nd one of Udhampur if they field right candidates. They could have won atleast 2 more seats in assembly elections if they party organisation was not run by fools. I hope that they don't make same mistake again. There's also a need of readjusting the constituencies. Kashmir has 3 seats compared to 2 of Jammu and one of Laddakh. Kashmir doesn't deserve any more than 2.
AAP will be just a small noise maker in J&K.

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 10 Feb 2014 22:03

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 11 Feb 2014 00:11

Looks like @waglenikhil the hard core Modi hater has been booted out from CNN/IBN

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 11 Feb 2014 01:12

gandharva wrote:

If BJP's support is more concentrated, instead of spread out as one would expect from the Dravidian parties, then BJP has good chances of winning a few seats in TN.

Instead of taking Gaptan Vijayakanth's as an ally, BJP should just stick to MDMK, PMK, KMK, IJK, and go into battle with them. This would mean these parties would be getting more seats to contest from and thus would be a lot more motivated. If they have to share their seats with DMDK, then there would be a lot of bitterness among them and NaMo may not achieve "Jupiter's escape velocity"!

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 11 Feb 2014 02:12

Ok, some bad news. Today's Chanakya (the only poll agency that got 2009 LS and as well all the 4 state elections recently held correct) has tweeted that AAP's effect is not just localized around NCR, it is national. Now i dont know what they mean by national (2-3% vote) or if they are talking some serious dent.

On an other note, is it just me or does anyone else here also think that AAP is slowly getting votes in UP (banias and similar communities that would otherwise vote BJP).

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 11 Feb 2014 02:41

^^^

One thing BJP enthusiasts in this thread should be aware of parallel situation in AP back in 2009.

TDP launched Corruption campaign on Congress. Congress launched PRP with anti-congress campaign to fool people.
Corruption campaign didn't yield any benefit. Congress won and PRP later got merged.

Modi should not be blind-sided and rely on anti-Congress campaigns but rely on alliance strategies where they can cut votebanks for Congress. Certain wings of BJP is not fully anti-Congress so back-stabbing may be there in certain areas. Modi may end up not having complete control to contain those in the interests of not creating ruckus within party before elections.

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 11 Feb 2014 03:46

Sridhar K wrote:The grapevine was that Vijaykanth was demanding INR 500Cr for the alliance with BJP and hence the delay. Congress and DMK will oblige him to reduce the BJP tally. Even Amma may fund him indirectly to pocket 39 seats. Like in any other state, politics in TN is only about money right from the Municipal/Panchayat levels. The only difference with other state perhaps is the scale of money in TN being very high.

Gapten

, he played spoilsport in the elections before last by splitting anti dmk votes, enabling dmk to come to power. Cho etc worked to bring him to JJ camp in last elections to ensure dmk defeat.

but his share has been declining, not improving. his voters are not like the base voters of dmk and admk. if dmdk joins bjp alliance, it will be good for bjp. if not, they can still work for a modi wave to pick up dmdk voters.

muraliravi wrote: Tension mat lo yaar, BJP wont ally with DMDK. Swamy was creating problems in alliance even with vaiko, that is the problem.

swamy has problems with everybody and vice versa. swamy has no influence in TN bjp policies and vaiko etc rightly know that it is modi camp calling the shots. so the explanation of "it is his personal opinion and we don't care about that" is holding for now.

pmk, dmdk are not hedging due to swamy. they are basically waiting for better offers.

nageshks wrote: PMK and DMDK find it hard to be on same side. They both want more or less same seats. BJP will have to choose between them. In this choice of evils, I pick the more evil, but more predictable PMK. DMDK is JJ on hyper steroids where unpredictability is concerned.

the areas of influence is more or less exclusive for PMK (vanniyar caste based, who are concentrated in northern districts) and DMDK (madurai and south).

If I had to choose I'll choose DMDK as it can add to Vaiko votes in south TN where admk is not that strong. let's see.

there are people like Thamizharuvi Manian etc still working on a 'grand alliance' in TN. it is still viable.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 11 Feb 2014 04:26

ShyamSP wrote:^^^

One thing BJP enthusiasts in this thread should be aware of parallel situation in AP back in 2009.

TDP launched Corruption campaign on Congress. Congress launched PRP with anti-congress campaign to fool people.
Corruption campaign didn't yield any benefit. Congress won and PRP later got merged.

Modi should not be blind-sided and rely on anti-Congress campaigns but rely on alliance strategies where they can cut votebanks for Congress. Certain wings of BJP is not fully anti-Congress so back-stabbing may be there in certain areas. Modi may end up not having complete control to contain those in the interests of not creating ruckus within party before elections.

Well said. I will put up a list of seats where AAP can damage BJP. The traditional thinking is that AAP will not take away BJP vote, while that might be true, just the regular BJP vote alone is not by any means enough for Namo to cross the line. He needs those fence sitters. While in rural india, those fence sitters are locked with BJP along with traditional BJP voters, I dont see equal enthusiasm among fence sitters in urban india after AAP has become an option. I will put up the list of danger seats for BJP because of AAP shortly.

Please take today's chanakya seriously, getting all polls correctly is not a joke by any means. In fact they predicted UP also correctly in 2012.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 11 Feb 2014 05:19

That is my list of seats where AAP can hurt BJP. The ones shaded red are where the danger is higher. In Mumbai, I put only 3 because BJP contests only three. Similarly in punjab or other parts of MH, I have not added urban areas which BJP does not contest. I have also not added any urban seats where BJP is not a player even if it contests for the sake of contesting.

My aim is not spread pessimism, but to have a discussion. If someone with local insights of candidate (past winning margins or possible win margin this time) wants to eliminate a particular seat where they see no chance of AAP being a spoiler or in fact see chances of AAP eating cong votes to help BJP, please lets discuss that here and I can repost the chart after removing those seats.

member_23365 · Post by **member_23365** » 11 Feb 2014 05:54

muraliravi wrote:

That is my list of seats where AAP can hurt BJP. The ones shaded red are where the danger is higher. In Mumbai, I put only 3 because BJP contests only three. Similarly in punjab or other parts of MH, I have not added urban areas which BJP does not contest. I have also not added any urban seats where BJP is not a player even if it contests for the sake of contesting.

My aim is not spread pessimism, but to have a discussion. If someone with local insights of candidate (past winning margins or possible win margin this time) wants to eliminate a particular seat where they see no chance of AAP being a spoiler or in fact see chances of AAP eating cong votes to help BJP, please lets discuss that here and I can repost the chart after removing those seats.

Muraliraviji add Hissar in the list as well, reports are Hissar is also aapified,city for sure rural area are following wait and watch. Vigilantism is going on there as well. AAPturds stand with traffic police and are making police to issue challan for things like no seatbelts or no helmets. General public is very much in favour of that.

KJo · Post by **KJo** » 11 Feb 2014 06:09

Murali, it looks possible that that Mrs Wodeyar may contest in Mysore. If she does, then highly likely that she will win because of sympathy factor. I think she will contest from the Congress. But you are right that AAP will make inroads. My mom vehemently says that she will vote for whoever AAP puts up. My dad knows the local AAP bigwig and he has a good reputation. Mrs Wodeyar may not contest since she is in mourning, but it looks like a Congress stronghold.
Don't think BJP can win Mysore.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 11 Feb 2014 06:17

atamjeetsingh wrote:
Muraliraviji add Hissar in the list as well, reports are Hissar is also aapified,city for sure rural area are following wait and watch. Vigilantism is going on there as well. AAPturds stand with traffic police and are making police to issue challan for things like no seatbelts or no helmets. General public is very much in favour of that.

Ok sir, I will. But I thought Hissar seat is for HJC correct?

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 11 Feb 2014 06:20

KJoishy wrote:Murali, it looks possible that that Mrs Wodeyar may contest in Mysore. If she does, then highly likely that she will win because of sympathy factor. I think she will contest from the Congress. But you are right that AAP will make inroads. My mom vehemently says that she will vote for whoever AAP puts up. My dad knows the local AAP bigwig and he has a good reputation. Don't think BJP can win Mysore.

Exactly, even if they get 2-3% vote that is enough to screwup close contests. I am no more buying this explanation that they wont get 2-3%. All the recent polls and even polls by IBTL and 5forty3 show they are getting 3-4% in every damn state. I repeat Modi maybe assured of core BJP voters, but that by no means suffices, he needs those fence sitters. I am not sure if it is a risk worth taking, but Modi better evaluate (closed door or through surveys and analyze what the counter attack may look like) if it is worth for him to do a frontal attacks on AAP.

BhairavP · Post by **BhairavP** » 11 Feb 2014 06:43

No chance for AAP in Mumbai.None whatsoever.

member_23365 · Post by **member_23365** » 11 Feb 2014 06:45

muraliravi wrote:
atamjeetsingh wrote:
Muraliraviji add Hissar in the list as well, reports are Hissar is also aapified,city for sure rural area are following wait and watch. Vigilantism is going on there as well. AAPturds stand with traffic police and are making police to issue challan for things like no seatbelts or no helmets. General public is very much in favour of that.
Ok sir, I will. But I thought Hissar seat is for HJC correct?

Yes and BJP has alliance with HJC as of now.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 11 Feb 2014 06:52

atamjeetsingh wrote:
Yes and BJP has alliance with HJC as of now.

Yes sir, I will make a note, but for now let us just analyze BJP seats only. I will explain later why I am not analyzing NDA allies. (primarily because of tod fod stuff, but will explain in detail later). One more note, please see that I have not put any seats from Gujarat (just a liberal assumption that aapturds wont make much dent there and if any they will only cut cong votes)

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 11 Feb 2014 06:55

BhairavP wrote:No chance for AAP in Mumbai.None whatsoever.

Can you please elaborate sir. IBTL (quite neutral in fact pro BJP) survey gives AAP 3 seats in Maharashtra. One would naturally think that it would mostly come from Mumbai/Pune

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 11 Feb 2014 06:59

The aim is to prevent NM by various means. All forces will work together to ensure mafia is back or at least thurd front with mafia support is created. But this is not a game one side is playing. Modi got CBN who has already visited Chennai, Bbuvaneswar ( and Kolkatta?) and will be NDA convenor. The aim is to prevent T creation or at least stall it so that mafia will not get any benifit and BJP TDP allies will get 30 seats in AP with Jagan/mafia destoryed there. TRS will have no where to go and has to support BJP/NDA. Entire AP will be in BJP pocket. Similarly game is also on in Kerala, North east with huge amount of attack by numorus rallies etc are being lauchned. So while PAAP may hurt BJP somewhat BJP is attacking mafia strongholds wherein it never had any wins. Just like you attack one side and I attack on the otherside to counter that instead of defending. The problem with PAAP is unlike Prajarajyan in AP in 2009, it can only cut fewer % of votes of BJP and a lot % votes of mafia and also it is fast proving to be bunch of jokers. so PAAP if gets votes in a direct contest between BJP and mafia they will be mostly mafia votes and mafia will get seriously hurt.

I do not see them win from MH and I live in Mumbai wherein people are maing jokes about them.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 11 Feb 2014 07:11

MuraliRavi-ji,
Mangalore is completely polarised. Hindus make up some 65-70% of the electorate, and relations between Hindus and Abrahamic minorities are extremely tense. Almost all Hindus will vote for the BJP, and all non-Hindus will vote for those who have the best chance to defeat the BJP. AAP will be lucky to get 1K votes there.

Also, Bangalore North is a Kannada (and some Telugu/Tamil) dominated area, where BJP rules the roost. Not much chance for the AAP there. In Bangalore South, with all the IT-vity people there, the AAP can play a spoiler, if they have a good candidate. In fact, if they field Capt. Gopinath, he may damage Anant Kumar a bit, particularly if Gopinath can steal some Kannada and/or Brahmin votes. But again, it is as likely to steal Congress IT-vity votes as BJP's Kannadiga/Brahmin votes. Bangalore Central is a hard constituency for the BJP. I am not sure they can win this constituency this time, AAP or no AAP. In fact, if AAP eats a bit of the minority votes, then the BJP may benefit.

Will check Hubli. But really - Hubli is a Lingayat stronghold. I don't think the AAP will be able to steal many BJP votes there.

Mysore is a different matter altogether. There is still an old elite (who, mentally, are still in 1950). With this elite, the AAP, with their Gandhian antics, may score a bit. Again, AAP is unlikely to get more than 2-3% of the votes here.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 11 Feb 2014 07:11

Narayana Rao sir, i agree that they wont win seats. The problem is will they spoil modi vote to gift congress a seat

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 11 Feb 2014 07:19

nageshks wrote:MuraliRavi-ji,
Mangalore is completely polarised. Hindus make up some 65-70% of the electorate, and relations between Hindus and Abrahamic minorities are extremely tense. Almost all Hindus will vote for the BJP, and all non-Hindus will vote for those who have the best chance to defeat the BJP. AAP will be lucky to get 1K votes there.

Also, Bangalore North is a Kannada (and some Telugu/Tamil) dominated area, where BJP rules the roost. Not much chance for the AAP there. In Bangalore South, with all the IT-vity people there, the AAP can play a spoiler, if they have a good candidate. In fact, if they field Capt. Gopinath, he may damage Anant Kumar a bit, particularly if Gopinath can steal some Kannada votes. But again, it is as likely to steal Congress votes as BJP's. Bangalore Central is a hard constituency for the BJP. I am not sure they can win this constituency this time, AAP or no AAP. In fact, if AAP eats a bit of the minority votes, then the BJP may benefit.

Will check Hubli. But really - Hubli is a Lingayat stronghold. I don't think the AAP will be able to steal many BJP votes there.

Mysore is a different matter altogether. There is still an old elite (who, mentally, are still in 1950). With this elite, the AAP, with their Gandhian antics, may score a bit. Again, AAP is unlikely to get more than 2-3% of the votes here.

Thanks Nagesh ji, your observations do support the inputs I have from other sources. So it is 2 seats (B'Lore south and Mysore) that are in play. Can you post your feedback on Hubli once you get it. I will remove B'lore North from the list

disha · Post by **disha** » 11 Feb 2014 07:40

muraliravi wrote:
atamjeetsingh wrote:
Yes and BJP has alliance with HJC as of now.
Yes sir, I will make a note, but for now let us just analyze BJP seats only. I will explain later why I am not analyzing NDA allies. (primarily because of tod fod stuff, but will explain in detail later). One more note, please see that I have not put any seats from Gujarat (just a liberal assumption that aapturds wont make much dent there and if any they will only cut cong votes)

If you want our Rahul Mehta to "win"., just put Mallika in A'dbad constituency on behalf of AAP. Put it this way, CongIs as a party is in shambles in Guj. but at the same time the CongIs have still a significant brand name in Gujarat and if some CongI worthies decide to join AAP + disgruntled BJP rebels, AAP can as well win 4 seats (all ex-CongIs)! This will decimate CongIs, but launch AAP.

Now turning the situation around in your list - All urban areas with yuppie-tards are risk to AAP. Question is how many of them are BJP leaning or CongI leaning? CongIs may not win that seat, in effect ceding ground to AAP.

And that is what Khujliwal understands and thinks 20-30 seats are within his grasp just because they are powered by ex-CongIs.

So yes, at the max. side - put 31 for AAP.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 11 Feb 2014 07:51

muraliravi wrote:Narayana Rao sir, i agree that they wont win seats. The problem is will they spoil modi vote to gift congress a seat

That is why I feel in direct contest between mafia and BJP they will end up damaging mafia further. They will slow the BJP raise somewhat but do they really bring the defeat of BJP or stop NM? I am not sure. But large Ford money and paid media support is there. So one can never underestimate them. I am sure Modi does not. Counter attack is on. If anyone think NM going to Kerala or going to NE states is just for fun we need to rethink. I am also seriously concerned about D4 actions. They may allow Rahil baba bills passed and thereby boast his image ( is it possible

)

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 11 Feb 2014 07:52

From my side, on the red column, the one seat I think we can safely eliminate is Jaipur. The margin by which BJP is going to win that seat this time is going to so huge that even AAP^infinity cannot be a spoil BJP's party.

Virendra, if you are reading this, please confirm

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 11 Feb 2014 07:55

Narayana Rao wrote:
muraliravi wrote:Narayana Rao sir, i agree that they wont win seats. The problem is will they spoil modi vote to gift congress a seat
That is why I feel in direct contest between mafia and BJP they will end up damaging mafia further. They will slow the BJP raise somewhat but do they really bring the defeat of BJP or stop NM? I am not sure. But large Ford money and paid media support is there. So one can never underestimate them. I am sure Modi does not. Counter attack is on. If anyone think NM going to Kerala or going to NE states is just for fun we need to rethink. I am also seriously concerned about D4 actions. They may allow Rahil baba bills passed and thereby boast his image ( is it possible )

Ok, i got the feel now. Your view is supported by many that AAP cant do much in mumbai and if any, they will cut cong to size

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 11 Feb 2014 09:18

muraliravi wrote:That is my list of seats where AAP can hurt BJP. The ones shaded red are where the danger is higher.

AAPpi party has zero chance of doing anything in Trivandrum, let alone hurting BJP. Not sure why you have shaded it red.

SanjayC · Post by **SanjayC** » 11 Feb 2014 09:22

AAP acting on CIA's behest, BJP tells President

BJP alleged that AAP was acting on the behest of CIA, and an inquiry into donations received by AAP could not be completed due to non-cooperation by the party. "The President has assured us that he would look into the issue," Vardhan added.

BhairavP · Post by **BhairavP** » 11 Feb 2014 10:20

Muraliji, in 6 out of 7 seats here, the Congress scraped through with small margins, except in North-Central, where a large Muslim electorate gave Priya Dutt a high margin of victory.
Now, with the AAP contesting, I see that the BJP/SS electorate is a lock, so even if the MNS plays spoiler, the AAP will cut the Congress vote only, as seen in Delhi.
Overall, 5-2 or 6-1 to the NDA here IMHO.