Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 23 Feb 2014 20:04

SandeepA wrote:
nageshks wrote:Where is Jagan getting all these votes from?
Kapus and Reddys who are finding it unviable to side with the Cong anymore + xtian converts

There is not much wave for Jagan

Looks like TDP is on the rise in Andhra side it seems

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 23 Feb 2014 21:52

Sushma should be forced to contest from a seat in Telangana.

Venkaiah should be forced to contest from a seat in SA.

Arun Jaitley should be asked to contest from a seat in Delhi, if possible against Kejriwal, or against Kapil Sibal in Chandni Chowk.

Ananth Kumar should be asked to contest from his South bangalore seat against Nandan Nilekani.

There should be no promise of safe Rajya Sabha seats for them. Let them prove their worth by winning from tough seats in Lok Sabha.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 23 Feb 2014 21:52

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 23 Feb 2014 23:36

BSP-Cong handshake in Uttar Pradesh: unlikely but fruitful?

With the notification for the 2014 Lok Sabha election expected to be just a week or two away, the political air in Lucknow is thick with the talk of the Congress and Bahujan Samaj Party coming together in some form to check the onslaught of the Narendra Modi juggernaut.

Although both parties stoutly deny that any such initiative is even being considered on their part, electoral arithmetic indicates that such an arrangement could indeed be under discussion, especially when the matrix of caste and religion dominates all other factors in Uttar Pradesh.

More looks like the writer wants it happen.

Virendra · Post by **Virendra** » 24 Feb 2014 01:09

atamjeetsingh wrote:Will be in desh next week.
Will try to gauge the public preception and try to do my own survey. Guru log any app avialable on android for survey?????
Will be travelling in Haryana mostly and Alwar and Jaipur.
Right now reports from my own sources is people who got swayed by AAP are finding it laughing stock. If AK cannot handle a small state like Delhi what can he do???
Resignation has created an adverse effect on voters.

Mr. Singh, if you get to talk to the Jats of Haryana and Rajasthan, please do ask them of whether they knew about Muzzafarnagar.
It would be great to know whether or not the Jat bonhomie cuts across states even today.

Thank you

Virendra · Post by **Virendra** » 24 Feb 2014 01:12

fanne wrote:http://www.abplive.in/video/video_india ... wlFrvldXX4

- Delhi AAP =6, BJP =1,
Haryana - BJP -6, Rest all parties 1 each (AAP/HJC/CON/INLD/IND)
JK BJP = 1, CONG 1
HP bjp =4
UK BJP =5
Punjab , BJP =3, SAD = 7, CHANDIGARH = AAP1
Rajasthan 20 con 5

They'll be wrong on Raj I think. BJP will be above 20. I'd put Congress to 3 at most and others to 1.

VinodTK · Post by **VinodTK** » 24 Feb 2014 03:44

BJP prepares to bring TDP, AGP into NDA

The Bharatiya Janata Party's balancing act on Telangana-Seemandhra and its prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi's growing pan-Indian support, particularly in the North-East, have forced the party to rethink reviving an electoral alliance with the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and move fast on sealing a mutually beneficial deal with the Telugu Desam Party (TDP).

While the top BJP leadership is all for including both the AGP and TDP in the expanded National Democratic Alliance (NDA) for the Lok Sabha elections, the sangh parivar wants the Assam party to come out openly against the All India United Democratic Front of Badruddin Ajmal before it ties up with the BJP because it does not want its caste Hindu votes to be divided.

Nagpur (RSS headquarters) sent a senior leader to Seemandhra over the weekend to prepare the cadre for an alliance with the TDP, with top BJP leaders staying in touch with Chandrababu Naidu, TDP chief.

The alliances will be discussed in the BJP parliamentary board meeting on February 27 and the TDP will be the first one to come to the NDA fold.

A top BJP strategist told Hindustan Times on anonymity the three parties stood to gain from the alliances, which would enable the NDA to reach the magical figure of 272 in the Lok Sabha elections.

"The BJP, by extracting an economic package for Seemandhra and rooting for the creation of Telangana, is getting pro-Modi support in the former as well in the latter. Our surveys show the BJP has some 20% vote share in Telangana and the TDP has about 14%. With the TDP joining hands, the NDA will be able to corner a large number of seats in the newly created state. In Seemandhra, we expect support for Modi as PM to be around 10% but with the TDP's big support, the NDA can give the YSR Congress a run for its money," the senior BJP leader said.

The TDP has six Lok Sabha MPs in undivided Andhra Pradesh. The party has about 92 MLAs while the BJP has two.

In Assam, BJP leaders such as Narendra Modi, Rajnath Singh, Arun Jaitley and Amit Shah have pitched in for the alliance with the AGP. "Our surveys have shown that the BJP is now neck and neck with the Congress … If we tie up with the Asom Gana Parishad , with its traditional vote share of 14-15%, the National Democratic Alliance is in the reckoning for some nine of the 14 seats in the state," a BJP leader said.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 24 Feb 2014 03:44

subhamoy.das wrote:I would say that once NAMO forms the govt, he should teach the delhi billies some lesson. How about making Magadh the capital and leave the delhi billies to at the mercy of PAAP?

I think Nagpur would be a good choice of capital. Geographically equi-distant to all corners of the country. Or build a new capital in Madhya Pradesh.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 24 Feb 2014 05:36

Telegraph image

Any sense?

disha · Post by **disha** » 24 Feb 2014 06:01

ramana wrote:Telegraph image

Any sense?

All the "majority" xtians and muslims are gravitating towards anti-BJP/anti-Namo (look at the percentage #pappu is getting there) and still NaMo has some %ge in muslims and xtians? What gives? and

It pays to know your minorities. Out side of Sunnis., the rest of the muslims are not dis-inclined to vote for NaMo/BJP., this is something that BJP should be aware and they should court muslims in such a way that this votebank is fractured. All the sunni-islamic votebank outside of the naarthern belt (UP/Bihar/WB) are of the "secular" persuasion. That is they are anti-hindu.

Same goes for EJ xtians. I have seen die-hard supporters of NaMo in Syrian x-tians., but not in EJ xtian. This is known already in BRF.

And regarding the "deciders" as exception in K'tka - I disagree - with a small sample size, and the way survey is conducted it could be a survey bias where sections which are largely insulated from inflation worries more about corruption. Issue of "unemployment" is same, issue is not about employment - it is about opportunities and under-employment.

Modi outscores as PM everywhere except in Kerala. NaMo converts the election into presidential and that is something which neither CONgIs can do nor AAP (what khujli for PM? Scratch that idea).

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 24 Feb 2014 07:38

Kerala is 50% M+C. group-think is strong in organized, hierarchical, centrally-regimented religions.

Victor · Post by **Victor** » 24 Feb 2014 08:19

"Hindu fundamentalist" Modi gets a fifth of the Muslims and a quarter of the Christians votes? Very good news indeed.

Rahul Mehta · Post by **Rahul Mehta** » 24 Feb 2014 10:10

Can a BRites do survey on his own by picking 100-200 names at random from voterlist in his assembly area?

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 24 Feb 2014 10:34

If 57% want Modi as PM, why would they vote for a non BJP candidate. If each and every one of the 57% vote for BJP, BJP will shoot upwards of 320 seats..something like that. SO what prevents these 57% from casting their vote in favor of BJP is they like Modi as PM? Any good answers?

kapilrdave · Post by **kapilrdave** » 24 Feb 2014 11:54

RajeshA wrote:If there is going to be any large-scale use of EVM magic, then I think it is going to be in Coastal Andhra, and maybe Delhi.

EVM magic, if at all such a thing exists, will have to be done where BJP cadre is practically absent. You just can't do it in GJ, RJ, MP for example. Not even Delhi. But AP fits perfectly into this bill. More so because of the total chaos regarding the blame game for split.

niran · Post by **niran** » 24 Feb 2014 12:02

harbans wrote:If 57% want Modi as PM, why would they vote for a non BJP candidate. If each and every one of the 57% vote for BJP, BJP will shoot upwards of 320 seats..something like that. SO what prevents these 57% from casting their vote in favor of BJP is they like Modi as PM? Any good answers?

the figures are all from Musharraf, is the only logical answer.
BJP own data shows 393 seats nationwide, amongst them 353 in green zone(>80% chances of winning)

kapilrdave · Post by **kapilrdave** » 24 Feb 2014 15:04

niran ji, there are many buddhe's here in peeaarrreefff. And there are some buddhe+khoosath's like me also. What will you get by giving sugar attack to them?

merlin · Post by **merlin** » 24 Feb 2014 15:16

niran wrote:
harbans wrote:If 57% want Modi as PM, why would they vote for a non BJP candidate. If each and every one of the 57% vote for BJP, BJP will shoot upwards of 320 seats..something like that. SO what prevents these 57% from casting their vote in favor of BJP is they like Modi as PM? Any good answers?
the figures are all from Musharraf, is the only logical answer.
BJP own data shows 393 seats nationwide, amongst them 353 in green zone(>80% chances of winning)

Well figure from my musharraf is 262.

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 24 Feb 2014 15:19

kapilrdave wrote:
RajeshA wrote:If there is going to be any large-scale use of EVM magic, then I think it is going to be in Coastal Andhra, and maybe Delhi.
EVM magic, if at all such a thing exists, will have to be done where BJP cadre is practically absent. You just can't do it in GJ, RJ, MP for example. Not even Delhi. But AP fits perfectly into this bill. More so because of the total chaos regarding the blame game for split.

delhi is also open to such a game

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 24 Feb 2014 15:49

And how many of those green zone 353 are in seemandhra, saar?

P.S.
Wonder what was niran's sources' prediction success rate in the 4 assembly polls that happened late last year... Would dearly love to believe such numbers but they zimbly seem too good to be true.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 24 Feb 2014 16:42

13 MLAs from Lalu camp have split and joining Nitish Kumar

niran · Post by **niran** » 24 Feb 2014 16:50

stop the press and watch rats abandoning ship live,
13 laloo MLA leaves him for neetish, after rejected by soosheel
modi(not related to NaMo)

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 24 Feb 2014 16:54

It is to prevent splitting of JD(U) post-elections.

niran · Post by **niran** » 24 Feb 2014 16:58

Moi had predicted bjp's rout in UP 3 weeks in advance
moi had predicted congress rout in MP,Raj,CG & win in Dilli
onree CG went wrong, happy Hari Saar? The T bill have messed up
the data, new data are being collected will post when it is done.
word is NaMo have results almost live he gets updates ever 5-6 hours
me gets 1 day old data at best.

niran · Post by **niran** » 24 Feb 2014 17:02

Supratik wrote:It is to prevent splitting of JD(U) post-elections.

political opertunism at its best saar, even Laloo buffalos knows he is finished.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 24 Feb 2014 17:03

This is related with Paswan faction joining Modi, RJD know their leader is finished , on their own they are unlikely to win a seat and there is strong BJP wave in UP-Bihar, in fact this could even be engineered from Delhi to prevent onslaught of Modi

I think Madam may now ally with Nitish

satya · Post by **satya** » 24 Feb 2014 17:16

Niren's number are valid only ''IF'' there's a NaMojee's wave. His numbers match more or less from other sources ( worst case scenrario number crunching for first family ) . In absence of wave we are back to 'jod-tod' coalition thing .

Atri · Post by **Atri** » 24 Feb 2014 17:40

Interesting to follow the TL of https://twitter.com/iMac_too

few notable points he has made in recent - ROP clergy is forcing the sekoolar parties to rally together and stop the kafirs. AMU dumping Mulayam, MLAs dumping lalu, Ahmedbhai with clergy of ganga valley are mobilizing again to unite the faithfools against infidels.

my comments - this is like panipat moment. whether or not they will be successful in making it an either-or contest, remains to be seen. The game is on. As polls approach, there will be a massive mobilization of the faithfools silently, below the radar. MSM will do the needful in providing them necessary cover and invisibility. Kejru's antics will be discussed at length.

Meanwhile, former RAW chief likely to join BJP - http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/form ... 45336.html

never before have I seen such a mobilization. Not even RJB. the perceptive nationalists in the system have sniffed the incoming Indrashakti, I think.

rajithn · Post by **rajithn** » 24 Feb 2014 18:21

Atri wrote:Meanwhile, former RAW chief likely to join BJP - http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/form ... 45336.html

never before have I seen such a mobilization. Not even RJB. the perceptive nationalists in the system have sniffed the incoming Indrashakti, I think.

Isn't Mr. Tripathi the same controversial ex- chief?

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 24 Feb 2014 18:37

6 of 13 MLAs return back to Lalu

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 24 Feb 2014 18:59

rajithn wrote: Isn't Mr. Tripathi the same controversial ex- chief?

Why is he controversial, Rajithn-ji?

Klaus · Post by **Klaus** » 24 Feb 2014 19:16

Atri wrote: never before have I seen such a mobilization. Not even RJB. the perceptive nationalists in the system have sniffed the incoming Indrashakti, I think.

Siege mentality at work, polarization on both sides has given this the impetus. The antennas are fully out & it would be heartening to see H's consolidate against the 'other', almost unprecedented in the Republic.

I'm just waiting to see Arun Shourie & Jaswant Singh get proved wrong, my hunch is that this will happen when Gorkhaland will be formed. Atri ji will get field tested answers to the conundrum sutra, possibly along the Teesta & the Eastern Terai. Lots of things need to go right before that & the momentum needs to hold.

rajithn · Post by **rajithn** » 24 Feb 2014 19:22

nageshks wrote:Why is he controversial, Rajithn-ji?

If I recall correctly there were some issues regarding Tripathyji's tenure and the way his successor, Alok Joshiji took over the reins of the RAW.

Before I say anything with certainty, I am going to search for some back ground information. I suspect I may find the answer within BRF intel and national sec thread.

I shall come back to you, one way or the other.

AjitK · Post by **AjitK** » 24 Feb 2014 19:29

nageshks wrote:
rajithn wrote: Isn't Mr. Tripathi the same controversial ex- chief?
Why is he controversial, Rajithn-ji?

I believe he is related to a former bureaucrat. Wasn't he reported to be Chaturvedi's man? There were a series of reports about Chaturvedi's destructive tenure at R&AW.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 24 Feb 2014 19:33

I for one feel very uncomfortable with this whole paswan episode. I mean, why on earth does he want to come to NDA as a prepoll ally. Lets say, he understands the wind direction, he can always join NDA as a 2 seat party post poll. The only problem he has with lalu-congress is the number of seats they are giving him, now is BJP going to give him more???? BJP has already made an alliance with the Khuswaha party in Bihar and given them 3 seats. Lalu-Cong were giving Paswan 7 seats and he felt that was too little, so is BJP going to give him more??

Unless lalu was giving paswan all non-winnable seats and BJP has 4-5 seats which it cannot win, but sees paswan having a shot at those seats, i see no use in this alliance. In fact the guy is a turn off for the BJP cadre in the state.

Ashok Sarraff · Post by **Ashok Sarraff** » 24 Feb 2014 19:35

ABV, Brajesh Mishra, Charutvedi, Mishra, and Tripathi are all UP Brahmins that allegedly caused some heartburn.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 24 Feb 2014 19:36

TRUE!!

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 24 Feb 2014 19:37

Don't like the arrangement in Bh wrt LJP. They are being given 9 seats while another small party gets 3 seats i.e. 12 seats - too many.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 24 Feb 2014 19:59

Supratik wrote:Don't like the arrangement in Bh wrt LJP. They are being given 9 seats while another small party gets 3 seats i.e. 12 seats - too many.

9 is a lot, can you put up a link to confirm that. But again, lets not forget, not everything is hunky dory for BJP in Bihar. If lalu-cong-paswan ally, BJP will at best get 15-16 seats of the 40.

They can do 2 things by getting paswan (PROVIDED those 9 seats are ones which BJP will anyway not win, as much as we would like to think, BJP is not in play in many seats in bihar). By getting LJP out of UPA, they would have salami sliced UPA in bihar and also can do some damage to niku's social knit. I am not per se against the alliance as long as BJP has negotiated from a position of strength.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 24 Feb 2014 20:04

TRS and Congress pre-poll aliiance likely, merger ruled out

Sources maintain the TRS chief is now insisting on retaining the chief minister’s post in the new state and has agreed to let Congress bag the majority of seats in the Lok Sabha polls while the regional party TRS would get majority of seats in the Assembly polls. “We are insisting also on the regional party maintaing major control of the state as the states develops best under a regional party, “said a senior TRS leader.

The Congress had been banking on bagging 17 of the Lok Sabha seats in the Telangana region in an arrangement with the TRS.