Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 03 Mar 2014 19:32

RajeshA wrote:Only Priya Dutt seems to be invincible from Mumbai North Central.

All the deracinated scum constituting Bollywood live their. What's else to expect? Hope she does not win this time around.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 03 Mar 2014 19:34

RajeshA wrote:Only Priya Dutt seems to be invincible from Mumbai North Central.

Well, that seat has too many M's. MNS not contesting is a godsend for NDA. But here is my concern, (again i dont want to go berserk with one data point). Something similar happened in 2004. Until Jan/Feb NDA was cruising and then once candidates were announced, things started going down hill. MH is one of the states where BJP has announced 17 candidates and I am really hoping the csds poll confirms the rumor that BJP is holding fort and it is SS that is screwing up.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 03 Mar 2014 19:57

muraliravi wrote:Yes Sir, Gossipguru and Sunday Guardian carried this scoop a while back. So it is official indeed now. Good news. So i guess this should compensate for the slight dip NDA has in this tracker. Rumor is that the BJP seats are intact, it is shiv sena that is taking a beating. In the last 2 months, a lot of people have left sena. MNS staying away from LS is good news for SS.

I will wait until we hear from Raj T. If Modi gets it that MNS not contesting then it is another super-duper master stroke. He does not need to create an alliance and then get beaten by Bihar-UP war lords.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 03 Mar 2014 20:12

Muppalla wrote:
I will wait until we hear from Raj T. If Modi gets it that MNS not contesting then it is another super-duper master stroke. He does not need to create an alliance and then get beaten by Bihar-UP war lords.

CSDS Jan Poll: MH - Modi for PM 40%
CSDS latest poll: MH - Modi for PM 31%

Thats a huge drop???

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 03 Mar 2014 20:16

May be Modi has promised something good to MNS in assembly elections.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 03 Mar 2014 20:25

muraliravi -
Here is how we should define.
MH and AP are must for UPA to return. They may not return even if they win MH and AP but they are sure to not return if they lose MH and AP.
For NDA to return - UP and Bihar are must.

The ding dongs are related. But we have to see how MH can just drop like that. May be due to inaction or no rallies deeper into Vidharbha.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 03 Mar 2014 20:32

Alright guys, here are the details, nothing to worry

The issue is very simple, BJP share went down and SS went up simply because of the way seats have distributed. NDA overall goes down 2% because MNS gains 2% (all the toll nautanki seems to have paid off). Now that causes UPA to get a bump up in their seat share with almost the same seat share.

You can see IBNlive website for details. But my graphic above summarizes everything. They dont give party wise vote share in the video, but if you read the article, you can get everything.

Now that MNS is not contesting, NDA can look forward to a clean sweep with 46% vote share. Also keep in mind, most of the others (1-5) are now in NDA.

All this Modi rating 40% to 31% has no bearing on the vote share, so that part of the survey is too keep their congress managers happy. But i must credit csds again (i have done it many times), they give us the maximum data among all mainstream survey
agencies.

So bottom line, NDA still doing fine, MNS took 2% away which has caused a loss of some seats, but of no consequence if they abstain from elections.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 03 Mar 2014 20:32

Muppalla wrote:muraliravi -
Here is how we should define.
MH and AP are must for UPA to return. They may not return even if they win MH and AP but they are sure to not return if they lose MH and AP.
For NDA to return - UP and Bihar are must.

The ding dongs are related. But we have to see how MH can just drop like that. May be due to inaction or no rallies deeper into Vidharbha.

Nothing to worry, all hulla bulla onlee. See my above post

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 03 Mar 2014 21:22

Otherday i was thinking about it.

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 03 Mar 2014 21:52

Why is EC delaying election announcement allowing the MAFIA to pass ordinances, make highly questionable choices on finance/Lokpal and even illegal things?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 03 Mar 2014 22:22

They want to enable MMS to pass more ordinances as fait accompli to the next govt.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 03 Mar 2014 22:48

vivek.rao wrote:Why is EC delaying election announcement allowing the MAFIA to pass ordinances, make highly questionable choices on finance/Lokpal and even illegal things?

Believe it or not. Everything is related to alliances of INC and very specific to AP. Why do you think so far so many psy-ops are going on but officially MNS, TDP, BJP haven't given any finality to MH and AP.

They want to give a rope to hang on to for Kapus of AP. In that pursuit, they have transferred few villages (drowning ones though) to AP from T and they are making the temple town.

MNS, NCP, TRS, TDP and the equations are the ones driving the delay.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 03 Mar 2014 22:50

vivek.rao wrote:Why is EC delaying election announcement allowing the MAFIA to pass ordinances, make highly questionable choices on finance/Lokpal and even illegal things?

It was supposed to be latest by friday. delay is to enable congis to stitch some ordinances or schemes. anyway , expect this week.

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 03 Mar 2014 22:51

Kalyan Singh made BJP vice president

http://www.niticentral.com/2014/03/03/k ... 95595.html

nelson · Post by **nelson** » 03 Mar 2014 22:56

Election Commission will announce the elections when the govt wants it to. There is no question of why? We all should know by now, that independence of constitutional bodies from the executive, is a myth.

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 03 Mar 2014 23:09

gandharva wrote:Kalyan Singh made BJP vice president

http://www.niticentral.com/2014/03/03/k ... 95595.html

Some good news from BJP to resurrect UP. He had once pan-Indian appeal in late 80s and 90s but internal BJP issues ruined him.

Santosh · Post by **Santosh** » 03 Mar 2014 23:28

gandharva wrote:Kalyan Singh made BJP vice president
http://www.niticentral.com/2014/03/03/k ... 95595.html

Excellent move by BJP. No need to go overt on RJB and Hindutva, subtle hints are good enough. But this also means that the polarization in UP is complete and M's are now in stop Modi at any cost campaign.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 04 Mar 2014 00:01

ShyamSP wrote:
gandharva wrote:Kalyan Singh made BJP vice president

http://www.niticentral.com/2014/03/03/k ... 95595.html
Some good news from BJP to resurrect UP. He had once pan-Indian appeal in late 80s and 90s but internal BJP issues ruined him.

If not for internal sabotage, he would have been India's PM and would have made a damn good PM

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 04 Mar 2014 00:16

BTW, one more thing on MNS, please dont forget congress also has the AAP card. If MNS truly backs off and does not contest LS polls (obviously BJP will be giving them a sweet deal for the vidhan sabha polls), congress will do overtime to ensure that AAP backs off in seats where they are more likely to cut congress votes. Of the 5% vote that AAP is getting in MH, 2.5% is congress vote, very little BJP vote and the rest from others. So Congress can manoeuvre to some extent with that card.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 04 Mar 2014 00:21

http://www.niticentral.com/2014/03/03/c ... 95598.html
con parting gift to damad , super prime real estate next to rashtraati bhavan

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 04 Mar 2014 00:39

IndraD wrote:http://www.niticentral.com/2014/03/03/c ... 95598.html
con parting gift to damad , super prime real estate next to rashtraati bhavan

BJP can say all deals announced just before elections are subject to ratification by the winners. Doenst have to be a fait accompli.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 04 Mar 2014 00:43

ramana wrote:
IndraD wrote:http://www.niticentral.com/2014/03/03/c ... 95598.html
con parting gift to damad , super prime real estate next to rashtraati bhavan

BJP can say all deals announced just before elections are subject to ratification by the winners. Doenst have to be a fait accompli.

They should make it a big issue instead of handing it over to AAP to raise it

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 04 Mar 2014 02:47

Delhi AAP dips, BJP gains, Congress still loses: Survey

Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party is in neck-and-neck race with BJP for the seven Lok Sabha seats in Delhi while BJP-Shiv Sena combine has a clear edge in Maharashtra, a pre-poll survey has predicted.

The survey carried out by CNN-IBN and CSDS said that BJP-SS-RPI alliance may secure between 23 and 29 seats in Maharashtra while Congress-NCP could end up getting 16 to 22 seats.

Regarding Delhi, it said that though AAP's popularity takes a slight dip since January but it still remains strong and is neck-and-neck with BJP in Lok Sabha seats and remains ahead in Vidhan Sabha.

The opinion poll has projected that AAP may get between 2 and 4 seats in Delhi if Lok Sabha polls are held today while BJP could also win notch up the same figure.

Congress, which had won all seven seats in the last Lok Sabha polls, may end up with only one seat in Delhi.

It said that there is 7 per cent vote share drop for AAP in Delhi since January and it may secure 35 votes, one per cent less by BJP, which is projected to get 36 per cent votes.

The survey said 31 per cent of voters in Maharashtra prefer Narendra Modi as Prime Minister while 16 per cent prefer Rahul Gandhi followed by six per cent rooting for Sonia Gandhi.

It said that 37 per cent Delhiites want Modi as PM while 26 per cent prefer Kejriwal and 15 per cent Rahul.

It projected a nine per cent fall since January among those wanting to see Kejriwal as prime minister.

The Congress, which had secured 59 per cent votes in 2009 in Delhi, was down in the dumps at 16 per cent projected vote share. In the past one month, it has improved and is expected to get 22 per cent votes, the survey said.

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 04 Mar 2014 03:54

Congress’s parting gift to Dynasty damad: Super prime real estate next to Rashtrapati Bhavan

In a startling revelation made by Times Now, it has come to light that prime real estate worth Rs 10,000 crore (23 acres of land) at a distance of 3.5 km from Parliament was approved by the Urban Development Ministry for creation of a high-end residential complex.

The project, worth Rs 65 crore, was to be undertaken by a subsidiary of the DLF Group, a front for the business activity of Robert Vadra, son-in-law of Congress president Sonia Gandhi.

VinodTK · Post by **VinodTK** » 04 Mar 2014 04:10

BSP, and not SP, is our main rival in UP, says Amit Shah

LUCKNOW: The raging war of words between Narednra Modi and Mulayam Singh notwithstanding, the Gujarat CM's close aide Amit Shah says that Bahujan Samaj Party is BJP's main rival in UP. "Congress and Samajwadi Party will fight for number 3 and 4 positions," Shah, who is also the UP in charge of the party, says.

Shah was having an informal interaction with journalists at the state BJP headquarters here on Monday. Interestingly, Shah's claim looks unfounded if one goes by Modi's attack on Mulayam and the latter's retort in the recent rallies in the state. While political analysts see this duel as a bid not only to project a bi-polar fight but also to extract maximum advantage out of politics of polarisation which is sure to come into play in the next elections. Elaborating further, experts said that the Samajwadi Party was known to be pro-Muslim while BJP a pro-Hindu party and making attack on each other is sure to trigger politics of polarization.

The Modi-Mulayam jibe began from the BJP's prime ministerial candidate's rally at Gorakhpur. The party's local MP is a known torch-bearer of Hindutva in the eastern part of the state. Experts in fact believe that selection of Gorakhpur by Modi to take a dig at Mulayam was not mere coincidence but gives weight to the theory that both want to cash in on politics of polarisation.

Experts feel that it is also not a mere coincidence that four rallies Mulayam and Modi have coincided. Sunday was no different. Mulayam addressed a rally at Allahabad hours before Modi addressed his last of the eight in the series of rallies at Lucknow.

After Mulayam's challenge to Modi, it was time for the latter to take on the SP chief. Not only did Modi take on Mulayam, he referred to him "Netaji" as he is popularly known in his party, over a dozen-odd time during his 40-minutes speech in Lucknow.

However, experts see nothing wrong in Shah's claim. "It might be based on overall assessment. Dalit vote base of BSP is one factor that might have forced Shah to give advantage to BSP over all other parties," they say.

Interestingly, Shah's analysis of how the coming Lok Sabha election would shape up has come after his visit to 62 districts in the state and taking feedback from party workers of all the districts.

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 04 Mar 2014 04:35

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 04 Mar 2014 04:53

^^^
and entire Twitter, Facebook, whatapp, BRF is filled with AAP stuff for a junk that has just 3.9% vote overall six state with biggest state being NCR. So in the rest of five states they don't even have more than what anyone on this forum can get casually if they contest

. The Indian voter is very liberal and they don't leave anyone who contests. They give few hundred votes anyway.

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 04 Mar 2014 05:16

Muppalla wrote:^^^
and entire Twitter, Facebook, whatapp, BRF is filled with AAP stuff for a junk that has just 3.9% vote overall six state with biggest state being NCR. So in the rest of five states they don't even have more than what anyone on this forum can get casually if they contest . The Indian voter is very liberal and they don't leave anyone who contests. They give few hundred votes anyway.

As i said earlier, AAP is pure "Hawa ka Gola". Without Congress support at ground level, nobody cares for them other than some extreme Left, Naxals and SIMI/ISI supporters.

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 04 Mar 2014 05:35

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 04 Mar 2014 06:46

gandharva wrote:

Makes sense, this is how many parties start, they first consolidate the "others" vote which is fragmented. They are the ones who are disillusioned with mainstream parties. It will be a while before they can grab the bjp's vote share in any substantial amount. But that day will come 5 years down the line if bjp does not cut them to size after the get to power.

durvasa · Post by **durvasa** » 04 Mar 2014 06:57

It will be interesting to know where did the 1% (80 lakh) voters go from AAP. That's more than 20% of AAP support base gone in a month and we still have a couple of more months to go. With all parties bringing their big guns and big advt bucks on, MSM will hardly have time for anyone from AAP except probably the Prophet himself.

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 04 Mar 2014 07:47

Vaghela helping Modi finish off Congress in Gujarat

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city ... IAhemdabad

subhamoy.das · Post by **subhamoy.das** » 04 Mar 2014 07:56

By why a dip in NAMO populariy in MAHA. He used to be in 40% category. Who gained at this expense? Is this due to BJP ' recent muslim apology vote bank politics? Not a good sign to see drop in NAMO popularity and to see it drop by almost 10% is alarming

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 04 Mar 2014 08:55

Okay, folks. A bit of grapevine news from ground in Karnataka. Chinnamma is not done screwing up NaMo's chances. She is messing with BJP in Karnataka, encouraging rebellion against Yediyurappa. Yediyurappa had a solid plan - replace half the MPs of last time (good idea too - many have become unpopular, often with 10 yrs of incumbency). However, Chinnamma is encouraging all those who may be denied ticket to revolt against Yediyurappa, so that he cannot replace the unpopular MPs. Suresh Angadi, Gaddigoudar, D B Chandregowda - all have become unpopular, but their candidacy is being supported, their anti-Yediyurappa actions encouraged by Sushy auntie. Unless BJP finds a way to control her, they won't cross 200. That, I suspect, is her goal.

merlin · Post by **merlin** » 04 Mar 2014 10:43

nageshks wrote:Okay, folks. A bit of grapevine news from ground in Karnataka. Chinnamma is not done screwing up NaMo's chances. She is messing with BJP in Karnataka, encouraging rebellion against Yediyurappa. Yediyurappa had a solid plan - replace half the MPs of last time (good idea too - many have become unpopular, often with 10 yrs of incumbency). However, Chinnamma is encouraging all those who may be denied ticket to revolt against Yediyurappa, so that he cannot replace the unpopular MPs. Suresh Angadi, Gaddigoudar, D B Chandregowda - all have become unpopular, but their candidacy is being supported, their anti-Yediyurappa actions encouraged by Sushy auntie. Unless BJP finds a way to control her, they won't cross 200. That, I suspect, is her goal.

How easy or difficult would it be to sideline her? Or not possible because RSS is behind her?

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 04 Mar 2014 10:48

merlin wrote: How easy or difficult would it be to sideline her? Or not possible because RSS is behind her?

AFAIK, Sushma is not part of RSS at all. Don't think RSS cares about her at all. I suggested forcing Sushma to contest against Sumo Renuka in Khammam - after all, Chinnamma should contest in Telangana, and what is more prestigious than indulging in a battle of the hags with Renuka? But - shrug.

Chandrasekhar · Post by **Chandrasekhar** » 04 Mar 2014 12:22

vivek.rao wrote:Congress’s parting gift to Dynasty damad: Super prime real estate next to Rashtrapati Bhavan

Trial Baloon in NDTV on 9th Jan

merlin · Post by **merlin** » 04 Mar 2014 12:49

nageshks wrote:
merlin wrote: How easy or difficult would it be to sideline her? Or not possible because RSS is behind her?
AFAIK, Sushma is not part of RSS at all. Don't think RSS cares about her at all. I suggested forcing Sushma to contest against Sumo Renuka in Khammam - after all, Chinnamma should contest in Telangana, and what is more prestigious than indulging in a battle of the hags with Renuka? But - shrug.

If she doesn't have RSS support and Advani's support doesn't count for that much these days, how come she is still influential?

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 04 Mar 2014 12:54

^I agree... was hoping that with the end of the parl session, her damage potential is over but clearly, was wrong...

Anand K · Post by **Anand K** » 04 Mar 2014 13:18

In the Socialist Republic of Kerala the AAP has declared some candidates - a pretty well known social activists/writer and an ex-IPS officer. The one in Trivandrum, Mr. Ajit Joy, is not widely known here but he's an ex-IPS officer, Harvard Law School Graduate and former UN official in the Human Trafficking/Narcotics Prevention program and born-bred in Trivandrum. He's also a Knanaya Christian AFAIK.

Here are some links:

3rd List of Candidates - 2014 Elections
Bihar Police Article