Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 06 Mar 2014 04:34

I still dont get what is so important for Nitesh to take down his party in Bihar? Why is he so adamant?

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 06 Mar 2014 04:42

JJ has given up on third front and wants to go alone

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 06 Mar 2014 04:47

ramana wrote:I still dont get what is so important for Nitesh to take down his party in Bihar? Why is he so adamant?

This is a question to which no one seems to have an answer. Nitish perfectly well knew that the BJP's cadre strength in Bihar was too strong for them not to screw him royally. He also knew that during the early days of the alliance, BJP had more seats than JDU and they still made him CM. I am not sure what he was counting on (i am reasonably sure that it is not bad electoral calculation, these regional leaders have a pretty good understanding of ground movements). Why did he take such a drastic move after Namo was nominated as 2014 electoral campaign chief.

sunnyP · Post by **sunnyP** » 06 Mar 2014 04:48

nachiket wrote: I'm not too bothered about TMC joining UPA. Mamata is a double edged sword. She'll get you a decent number of MP's and then demand 1 or 2 ministries which she will proceed to completely f*** up in addition to making your life miserable in the LS after the govt. takes office. If the NDA actually does come to power, it better not have the loony queen in it.

If the NDA have to rely on people like Mamta, Jaya or even Maya to make up their numbers then I'd really fear for the stability of any government. These megalomaniacs should be kept at an arms length. But of course beggars can't be choosers so lets see what happens.

sunnyP · Post by **sunnyP** » 06 Mar 2014 04:52

muraliravi wrote:
ramana wrote:I still dont get what is so important for Nitesh to take down his party in Bihar? Why is he so adamant?
This is a question to which no one seems to have an answer. Nitish perfectly well knew that the BJP's cadre strength in Bihar was too strong for them not to screw him royally. He also knew that during the early days of the alliance, BJP had more seats than JDU and they still made him CM. I am not sure what he was counting on (i am reasonably sure that it is not bad electoral calculation, these regional leaders have a pretty good understanding of ground movements). Why did he take such a drastic move after Namo was nominated as 2014 electoral campaign chief.

I think he misread the mood at the centre. Probably thought that Rajmata and her goons were guaranteed to return to power so even with a handful of seats he'd be guaranteed a cabinet post. Alternatively some inside the BJP assured him that Modi won't be leading the party into the elections so hold tight until Modi is gone. Either way he's a fool who misread the situation.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 06 Mar 2014 04:54

sunnyP wrote: If the NDA have to rely on people like Mamta, Jaya or even Maya to make up their numbers then I'd really fear for the stability of any government. These megalomaniacs should be kept at an arms length. But of course beggars can't be choosers so lets see what happens.

Jaya may be unavoidable. They need either MK or Jaya with them in TN along with any other small parties they can convince.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 06 Mar 2014 04:59

RajeshA wrote:Now DMDK + DMK is doing the rounds on twitter!

Man TN politics are so fluid!

Wow. so dmk is promising dmdk more than the 14 seats that lotus has already promised them? I mean, really? or perhaps a share of the telecom loot as sweetener?

I also heard reports of dmk cadre being instructed to strategically support NDA in certain constituencies to prevent a jaya sweep. Well, truth is stranger than fiction, certainly, in TN politics...

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 06 Mar 2014 05:26

ramana wrote:I still dont get what is so important for Nitesh to take down his party in Bihar? Why is he so adamant?

I think the clue lies in his visit to Pakistan last year. What was the Chief Minister of a poor, backward, and far-from-Pakistan-border state doing visiting Pakistan for a week meeting people like Imran Khan on buddy-buddy terms?

I think the ISI calculated that Lalu was damaged goods, and promised NiKu that the Muslim vote bank will be transferred wholesale to him if he could break NDA and stop Modi. He must have been promised PM-ship at the head of 3rd front.

The ISI still has many cards up its sleeve and will play a major role in GE2014.

JMT

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 06 Mar 2014 05:34

That Afghan journalist quoted in the AAP thread also thinks the same. The idea is to somehow reduce the BJP margins to prevent NaMo as PM.
Also thinks the big consequence of Nk's TSP visit was Bihar has become the IM hotbed with Nepal as the contiguos border.

KMKrao, Please tweet this in your own style.

Santosh · Post by **Santosh** » 06 Mar 2014 05:41

If Con+DMK+DMDK materializes in TN things could get ugly in triangular contest with BJP+ and ADMK. In that scenario, BJP+ definitely needs to get into strategic understanding with Amma to prevent victory of non BJP+, non ADMK candidate. All 40 seats should go to either BJP+ or ADMK candidate. Alliance can come post poll.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 06 Mar 2014 07:06

How reliable is the UP Poll tracker of CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS ? They are predicting 41-49 seats for BJP in UP.

http://ibnlive.in.com/news/up-poll-trac ... 3-242.html

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 06 Mar 2014 07:09

Suraj wrote:5forty3's latest post is quite an interesting read:
Sonia Gandhi: The Last Mughal of the Congress
Realizing the limitations of her political talent and electoral charisma early in her political innings (probably when Pawar rebelled in the late 90s), Sonia has been running the Congress show by simply letting other Congressmen rule and loot as per their own whims and fancies. What this had created is an artificial buoyancy of the Congress party which simply prospered electorally for 10 years just by the virtue of creating mutually beneficial regional and sub-regional ecosystems of individual Congressmen of various hues and shapes. This electoral model had its limitations, for it could succeed only as long as a weak and pliant opposition cohabited in the same Lutyen’s sphere of Dilli. The other factor that kept Congress viable was the secularism bogie which had so many adherents to its tenets that the entire political spectrum would eventually remain subservient to the Congress’s cause of continuing to rule Dilli.

She is more like Dowger Empress of the Qing Dynasty than the Mughals.

AjitK · Post by **AjitK** » 06 Mar 2014 07:47

nachiket wrote:^^SP and BSP, even if neither joins the UPA, can always be counted on for support because of CBI threats to both head honchos. At this point it is better to just count the UPA + Turd Front as one single block. This is what the BJP is truly facing and what has me worried. Getting the BJD and the ADMK to join the NDA can be a huge boost, if it is possible.

272 for BJP alone is of course wishful thinking.

CBI will be useful for getting the votes of the SP and the BSP in the Rajya Sabha. Even after the recent Assembly elections, the BJP will have just around 50 seats in the RS while the Congress will have around 65. If you consider the RS votes of the BJP plus ADMK, TDP, YSRC, TRS, BJD, NCP, NDA allies, parties in JH and the NE, the tally could be around 95.

Additionally, the President has nominated Congress lackeys like KTS Tulsi, MS Aiyar, Javed Akhtar and Bhalchandra Mungekar to the RS. Even the Congress found it difficult to pass some bills in the Rajya sabha. Sibal's bills have been stuck for ages.

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 06 Mar 2014 08:28

MAJOR BLOW to @NDTV @PrannoyRoyNDTV @bdutt .. ED attaches assets worth 863crores (786+77) of JaganReddy in money-laundering case (@ibnlive)
Expand

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 06 Mar 2014 09:25

Minimal Bollywood Posters:

There's a new Yash Raj film coming out this March, called 'Bewakoofiyaan'. No it's not a chronicle of Rahul Gandhi's life journey.

SanjayC · Post by **SanjayC** » 06 Mar 2014 09:25

gandharva wrote:
Kind of confirms TMC as Massa's project after Prakash Karat opposed Nuclear deal.

TMC's surprise rise immediately after communist opposition to nuclear deal is a result of EVM manipulation by Americans, nothing else. There was no way commies could have been dislodged suddenly like this. I don't know what Goras are going to do to EVMs in the coming LS elections. They seem to be favourably inclined to Modi now and consider him pro-US and pro-business, so they may allow him to come to power. However, BJP should go all out to ensure more than 64 seats in every constituency to beat EVMs.

member_28352 · Post by **member_28352** » 06 Mar 2014 10:09

The 9 stage election schedule seems to favour the AAPtards. AAPtard strength is in Delhi which goes to polls on April 10th, first phase. AAPtards can concentrate their strength here and then move volunteers, Peace Corps/Ford Foundation EVM magicians to other parts of the country as needed. Had Delhi polls been later AAP would have been bogged down in Delhi itself.

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 06 Mar 2014 10:36

Bengal roster is out, and the political wind is changing.....
musclemen/Goondas are out, intellectuals/'Bong-babus' are in. All the political parties are fielding
respected citizens. Lot of doctors and doctorates are on the list.

By the way, in deep south, amma is ready to dump the left bros
http://www.telegraphindia.com/1140306/j ... xgIfT9dUhs

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 06 Mar 2014 17:05

Published on Mar 06, 2014
By TS Sudhir
Chandrababu Naidu set to return to NDA fold: India Today

As NDA expands under NaMo, and regional leaders like Naveen Patnaik and J. Jayalalitha understand that NaMo's premiership is unavoidable, they would come to the conclusion that it is better to be there from the starting then to haggle and blackmail NaMo later, for the chances of that are not high.

NaMo could form a govt. without BJD and AIADMK. What awaits these parties then?

If J. Jayalalitha does not ensure a berth right now in the train, M. Karunanidhi may offer unconditional support to NaMo and get DMK first through the door!

For Naveen the decision has far more to do with trying to avoid a CBI enquiry into his deeds in Odisha.

So these two are certainly feeling the pressure to join up with NaMo now!

kmkraoind · Post by **kmkraoind** » 06 Mar 2014 17:43

2014: Final Countdown - Minhaz Merchant in TOI blog

Focus states

Gujarat: 23
Madhya Pradesh: 25
Rajasthan: 22
Maharashtra: 18
Uttar Pradesh: 48
Bihar: 24
Karnataka: 15
Chhattisgarh: 8
Jharkhand: 8
Uttarakhand: 4

Total: 195

Challenging states

Haryana: 4
Punjab: 2
Assam: 5
West Bengal: 1
Kerala: 1
Andhra Pradesh (Telangana): 2
Andhra Pradesh (Seemandhra): 1
Odisha: 1
Tamil Nadu: 2
Others: 2

Total 21

Small states/UTs

Goa: 2
Daman & Diu: 1
Nagar Haveli: 1
Himachal Pradesh: 3
Jammu & Kashmir: 2
Delhi: 3
Andamans: 1
Others: 1

Total: 14

BJP: overall total: 230

Turn now to the Congress:

Assuming the TRS fights the general election in a seat sharing alliance with the Congress in Andhra Pradesh (Telangana constituencies), these are the likely numbers for the Congress:

Gujarat : 3
Madhya Pradesh: 3
Rajasthan: 1
Chhattisgarh: 3
Maharashtra: 9
Karnataka: 12
Uttar Pradesh: 4
Bihar: 1
Jharkhand: 2
Uttarakhand: 1
Haryana: 2
Punjab: 1
Assam: 5
West Bengal: 4
Kerala: 7
Andhra Pradesh (Telangana): 4
Andhra Pradesh (Seemandhra): 1
Odisha: 4
Tamil Nadu: 1
Others: 7

Total: 75

How does the Third Front stack up?

Third Front

Left (four parties): 25
SP: 10
BJD: 12
JD(U): 4
Others: 7

Total: 58

The likely rupture in the AIADMK’s alliance with the Left parties could sound the death knell of the Third Front, especially with the BJD also turning sceptical.

What about the Fourth Front, comprising parties antagonistic to the Third Front? Their likely numbers:

Fourth Front

TMC: 27
DMK: 9
YSR: 12
BSP: 18
Others: 6

Total: 72

So we have our final math:

NDA: BJP (230) + SS (15) + SAD (7) + TDP (12) + LJP (2) + Others/Independents (18) = 284.

UPA: Congress (75) + NCP (5) + NC (1) +TRS (7) + RJD (8) + Others (8) = 104.

Third Front: Left Front (25) + SP (10) + JDU (4) + BJD (12) + Others (7) = 58.

Fourth Front: TMC (27) + DMK (9) + YSR (12) + BSP (18) + Others (6) = 72.

Likely post-poll governing combinations? Here are two:

1. UPA + Third Front: 106+58 =164. Plus outside support from AAP (10)=174. Add mercurial BSP (18) = 192 – well short of a working majority.
2. NDA + post-poll allies: 284 + AIADMK (22) = 306.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 06 Mar 2014 18:07

DMDK Channel says it is in talks with BJP for an alliance. It seems earlier IBN had mistakenly announced that DMDK had decided to ally with DMK.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 06 Mar 2014 18:19

NaMo probably knows also that Gaptun Vijayakanth and his party does not have the same level of popularity as earlier. His MLAs have been leaving him steadily.

So why is NaMo so keen on saving DMDK from oblivion?

In Bihar, NaMo did the same thing - saved LJP from oblivion! This really shows a master strategist's mind in NaMo. Brits used this strategy earlier, aligning with weak tribes, groups, countries, supporting them and enabling them to take on the big boys, ultimately weakening them.

That is what NaMo is hoping for here as well. He wants AIADMK and DMK sufficiently weakened so that they are more amenable to doing business with BJP.

Furthermore if BJP has to expand in TN, it needs partners, right now. DMDK is good in NDA alliance as it has cadre in TN, which BJP lacks. But the main aim in getting DMDK on BJP's side is not so much to strengthen oneself but to weaken the rivals.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 06 Mar 2014 19:00

Not sure what it means!

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 06 Mar 2014 19:04

^^^ Translation please ?

This I think

LS poll: DMDK seals pact with BJP

Comer · Post by **Comer** » 06 Mar 2014 19:24

DMDK's good performance in assembly polls were majorly due to the pre-poll alliance with ADMK. His earlier attempts were a flop, except for one or two good showings. I would not be too worried if this guy walks off from the alliance.
There are no good options for BJP in TN. Only way is to cash in on Modi wave and work from there.
EDIT: Saw RajeshA and Sanku's posts.
The literal translation is somewhat vague. It only says that DMDK has decided to contest the election in an alliance(as opposed to going alone) and started dialogue with BJP.
It doesn't say it has finalised alliance with BJP. The announcement is just like the party's leader.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 06 Mar 2014 19:30

Sanku wrote:^^^ Translation please ?

This I think

LS poll: DMDK seals pact with BJP

So alliance has been agreed on, seat sharing talks still on! So we are indeed looking at

BJP
DMDK
PMK
MDMK
KMK
IJK
PN

Alliance in TN.

Bihar NDA alliance, Maharashtra Mahayuti and Tamil Nadu NDA alliance have shown that NaMo appeal plus deft local BJP politicking has come of age!

If NaMo enters Lok Sabha with almost 272 BJP legislators and a big number of pre-poll allies, plus a few external support givers, then it becomes more difficult for the likes of USA to start Ukraine style movements in India. AAP would then peter out.

satya · Post by **satya** » 06 Mar 2014 21:06

Nitish Babu was given ironclad guarantee . The guarantee was NaMo won't be made NDA PM candidate & he will be NDA's candidate something TSP's foreign office knew b4hand simple as that . Usual suspects cutting across the party line made that decision . Do checkout the time line of LKA's outbursts & whisper campaign from others. It failed because D4 failed to correctly decipher the signals from RSS .

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 06 Mar 2014 21:14

satya, Thanks as always for clearing the fog.

johneeG · Post by **johneeG** » 06 Mar 2014 21:24

satya saar,
clear the fog about AP division as well:
Why?
Why now?
Who is the prime mover?
Who benefits?
Who all were the willing partners?

----
But Nitis as the Pm candidate of NDA? That sounds ridiculous. Why would Sushy aunty and Loh Purush agree to that?

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 06 Mar 2014 21:27

bhaijhung bhutia is TMC from darjeeling. rumour was Mithunda would contest and he would likely win from anywhere in India given his popularity among us blue collar worker bees

SS and LP will agree to anything to stay relevant. tell me what they bring to the table in terms of strategy, charisma, mass base.....dead weights that must be put up with until one is promoted to governorship and the other either retires to pen his memoirs or put atop raisina hill as the POI.

but overall good to see the back of the red flag goondas and their jholas of hand bombs.

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 06 Mar 2014 21:31

having minimum 5% voteshare in some constituencies and the only party not having aligned with anybody, it is not a surprise to see dmdk being wooed so vigorously by dmk, congress and bjp.

side note: rahul gandhi calling vijaykant to wish him happy birthday...oh what i would not give to have listened in on that conversation

Rahul : happy birthday gapten
gapten: same to you ..aaaanng)
--

the more delicious irony is that congress is the untouchable party in TN.

sum · Post by **sum** » 06 Mar 2014 21:34

TSP's foreign office knew b4hand simple as that . Usual suspects cutting across the party line made that decision

Didnt catch the part about TSP foreign office!

Yogi_G · Post by **Yogi_G** » 06 Mar 2014 21:34

OT but Mitun da is the original lungi dance jingo and deserves to get into the BR hall of fame.

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 06 Mar 2014 21:37

RajeshA wrote: If J. Jayalalitha does not ensure a berth right now in the train, M. Karunanidhi may offer unconditional support to NaMo and get DMK first through the door!

dmk has been with bjp in the past...but dmk has been with congress in some of the biggest scams of UPA..

i doubt very much that there will be any pre-poll alliance with dmk. post poll, if they can do without, they would certainly be better of doing without dmk. dmk comes with heavy baggage, probably the heaviest among all regional parties. they will want a 'safe passage' on all the scams. if you give them that, it will be hard to go after congress scams.

vic · Post by **vic** » 06 Mar 2014 21:55

satya wrote:Nitish Babu was given ironclad guarantee . The guarantee was NaMo won't be made NDA PM candidate & he will be NDA's candidate something TSP's foreign office knew b4hand simple as that . Usual suspects cutting across the party line made that decision . Do checkout the time line of LKA's outbursts & whisper campaign from others. It failed because D4 failed to correctly decipher the signals from RSS .

A more detailed explanation pls, difficult to understand your analysis. If Nikku had Advani support to be PM in BJP led Govt then why would he need Pakis? Or you are saying that Nikku as head of third front with Advani support? Again why would he need Pakis? who is D4 as per you?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 06 Mar 2014 22:27

All who want to know more read the AAP thread. there an Afghan journalist/cryptoghrapher points out that NiKamma was courted by ISI and subsequently IM moved its base to Bihar.

What satya is letting us know is LKA and SS saw no prospects in 2014 and offered Niku the gaddi. However rise of Modi stymied that. Besides the duo was overruled by RSS.

A suggestion when people like satya, niran, TKiran post something don't demand too many details. They cant. Otherwise they would have posted a two page paper.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 06 Mar 2014 22:31

Some rumors that Ram Kripal Yadav, the second most influential Yadav face in RJD, is moving to BJP.

RJD seems to be going downhill at top speed.

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 06 Mar 2014 22:39

ramana wrote:....NiKamma was courted by ISI and subsequently IM moved its base to Bihar.

This rat has been with ISI and IM for a long time. The blasts in Shri Modi's rally were 99.9% likely to be planned with his knowledge. He should be thoroughly investigated when Shri Modi becomes PM.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 06 Mar 2014 22:40

KLPji, Visit the Indian media thread.

Comer · Post by **Comer** » 06 Mar 2014 22:54

ramana wrote:
A suggestion when people like satya, niran, TKiran post something don't demand too many details. They cant. Otherwise they would have posted a two page paper.

Thanks to the above for clearing a lot my FUD.