Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Yogi_G · Post by **Yogi_G** » 10 Mar 2014 15:27

Singha wrote:yes but then we can kiss our AN32 service pgm goodbye.

question is would they mess with it Singha ji? Reasonable amount of ind.infrastructure being in eastern side and with their economy in doldrums and all.

Sumeet · Post by **Sumeet** » 10 Mar 2014 15:33

Interesting comment section on Reddit about India's position on Ukraine issue

http://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comme ... ts_russia/

vic · Post by **vic** » 10 Mar 2014 15:47

Russia also gave calibrated support during Kargill and Parakaram operations.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 10 Mar 2014 15:48

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/com ... 79978.html

Robert Fisk
Sunday 9 March 2014

Western leaders cannot face a ‘looming’ war. So I guess they'll patch something up - and let Russia gobble part of Ukraine

The Russkies are not going to be shaking in their boots at sanctions

vic · Post by **vic** » 10 Mar 2014 15:54

Austin wrote:For Europeans weaning out of Russian Gas and Oil wont be easy , Because Russia pumps as much as Oil as Saudi does having reserves far greater than Saudi ....and its Gas Reserves and its dependencies are shown in Chart.

Its not easy to ships the LNG as there is transport cost involved and you need to build LNG terminals.

All in All its a tremendous logistics effort and would take around a decade or more if they even try doing it today.

Not to mentions a sustained high Oil and Gas price in the market where speculators would be making a killing .......that would itself take the economy down and for Oil dependent economy like us will affect CAD.

It far easier to solve the Ukranian issue give and take

That is exactly why Saudi and US oil interests want to disrupt Russian supply. Substancial production from Libya and Iran has been curtailed. Japan and Germany nuclear power has gone off the rails. There is world wide campaign against nuclear power, coal and hydro. The long term crude oil which has been at inflation adjusted price of USD 20 -40 for a hundred years is now 100 USD for 8 years or so.

vic · Post by **vic** » 10 Mar 2014 15:59

UlanBatori wrote:Nijalingappa: If Putin breaks Ukraine into 2 or 3, that will put enough fear into Moldavia etc. to not become the next Georgia/Ukraine.

Russia should carry out non conventional retaliation in Middle East like in Saudi Arabia, Libya, Yemen, Iraq, Bahrain, disrupt oil supplies, take crude oil prices to USD 150, theeeen salami slice Ukraine.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 10 Mar 2014 16:26

vic wrote:That is exactly why Saudi and US oil interests want to disrupt Russian supply. Substancial production from Libya and Iran has been curtailed. Japan and Germany nuclear power has gone off the rails. There is world wide campaign against nuclear power, coal and hydro. The long term crude oil which has been at inflation adjusted price of USD 20 -40 for a hundred years is now 100 USD for 8 years or so.

Well the last time the Oil Priced went high we faced 2008 crisis ..... so any gain for spike in oil prices is at best short lived as 2008 has shown.

And US does not want to fast forward another recession when its already set in motion after the last one due to money printing policy of Fed.

We are not even any where close to sanctions and Brent and Texas is trading 109 and 102 USD ..... they would easily zoom up 120 and 110 even if West imposes mild sanction

vic · Post by **vic** » 10 Mar 2014 17:15

Austin you are equating interest of US as a nation with interest of US Oil lobby. These interests may not be same and can be divergent. The US Oil lobby can screw US national interests to keep oil prices high.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 10 Mar 2014 17:29

^^ Not really true , US Oil Companies are US interest .......Exon Mobil is equivalent to our Reliance in US .....they have all senators in their pockets.

US as a nation cease to exist long time back ......all they have now is Business Interest , Special Interest Groups and Lobbies and MIC that works for these interests.

BTW Oil is traded in $$ why would they worry of prices go high .....all the more reason to make fracking more attractive.

member_28502 · Post by **member_28502** » 10 Mar 2014 17:54

spot on

USA is United States of Business Interests.

USA is also home of the most controlled Media No less than Soviet media but very sophisticated versions of Izvestia, Pravda with additional inputs of TASS like CNN

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 10 Mar 2014 18:43

Some statistics for Kerry who can say with a Straight Face "You just don't invade another country on phony pretext"

If he was not the Secretary of State he could have won the Oscar for Best Actor

US Sponsored Genocide Against Iraq 1990-2012. Killed 3.3 Million, Including 750,000 Children

vic · Post by **vic** » 10 Mar 2014 19:50

Let me put it like this US National Interest are US Oil Lobby Interest and NOT US General public interest.

vic · Post by **vic** » 10 Mar 2014 20:05

OAO Gazprom, the Moscow-based gas-pipeline export monopoly, has since built Nord Stream, a pipeline along the Baltic Sea directly to Germany that can ship as much as 55 billion cubic meters a year.

The pipeline is about 30 percent utilized, offering “a new opportunity for Russia and Western Europe to circumvent Ukraine if necessary,” UBS AG analysts wrote yesterday in a report.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-0 ... y-cut.html

vic · Post by **vic** » 10 Mar 2014 20:17

Other, structural changes have lessened the potential impact on Europe of a disruption to Russian gas supplies through Ukraine. New Gazprom pipelines via Belarus and the Baltic Sea to Germany (Nord Stream) have cut the proportion of Gazprom's Europe-bound exports that transit via Ukraine to around half the total, meaning only about 15% of Europe's gas now relies on Ukraine's pipelines.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/m ... -pipelines

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 10 Mar 2014 21:10

Yes Kerry and Tony B.Liar,Uncle Sam's pet poodle,who lied with his teeth about Saddam's WMDs,is now bring paid off by the lecture circuit,where shitpot manufacturers are filling his pockets with ill-gotten gains to the tune of millions of pounds! Tony B.Liar was recently in the news for being the target of a citizen's arrest for his war crimes. TBL would certainly win the Best Supporting Actor award hands down!

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 10 Mar 2014 21:30

The situ is hotting up again!
Moscow denounces gun attack on pro-Russian activists in Eastern Ukraine
Published time: March 10, 2014

The Russian Foreign Ministry has criticized western governments and media for turning a blind eye on alarming incidents in Ukraine, including a gun attack on a pro-Russian rally in the city of Kharkov.

According to eyewitness reports, some seven or eight masked people drove a mini-van to a Saturday rally in central Kharkov, which was demanding a regional referendum on whether it should follow Crimea’s suit and seek joining Russia.

The men armed with bats and handguns ambushed three activists, who were returning from the rally.

“They threatened to kill us. I covered my head so they hit me on the hands. We barely realized what was happening,” one of the victims told Live News tabloid.

The attackers fired several shots in the scuffle, wounding one of the pro-Russian activists in the back. The injury was not life-threatening.

The aggression is one of several incidents, which, according to the Russian foreign ministry, are overlooked in the west. It also cited the detainment and deportation of seven Russian journalists from Ukraine over alleged biased reporting.

There is also the blockade of border travel for Russians living near it, which was recently reported by the Ukrainian border guard service. The service said it banned some 3,500, including 16 journalists, from entering the country, which amounts to about 500 people each day.

“The shamefaced silence of our western partners, rights groups and foreign media is baffling,” the ministry statement said.

Russia considers the government in Kiev, which was imposed following an armed coup last month, illegitimate and heavily influenced by radical forces, which played a key part in the coup.

Several regions in Eastern Ukraine share the view, while the Autonomous Republic of Crimea is to hold a referendum this Sunday over whether it should seek greater independence from the capital, or apply to join Russia.

The Crimean authorities have denounced the self-proclaimed government in Kiev and declared that all Ukrainian law enforcement and military deployed in the peninsula must take orders from them. The Crimea authorities have asked Russia to provide assistance to ensure peace and order in the region.

Crimeans began protesting after the new Kiev authorities introduced a law abolishing the use of other languages for official purposes in Ukraine. More than half the Crimean population is Russian and uses only this language for their communication.

Under the Russian-Ukrainian Partition Treaty determining the fate of the military bases and vessels in Crimea – signed in 1997 and prolonged in 2010 - Russia is allowed to have up to 25,000 troops, 24 artillery systems (with a caliber smaller than 100 mm), 132 armored vehicles, and 22 military planes, on the peninsula’s territory. The Russian Black Sea fleet is allowed to stay in Crimea until 2042. Moscow annually writes off $97.75 million of Kiev’s debt for the right to use Ukrainian waters and radio frequencies, and to compensate for the Black Sea Fleet’s environmental impact

As predicted,the US is trying to show its "military" muscle to counter macho Putin!
US deploys fighter jets in Poland and Lithuania amid Ukrainian turmoil
Published time: March 10, 2014

The US is sending a dozen F-16 fighter jets and nearly 300 service personnel to Poland by Thursday as part of a training exercise in response to the crisis in neighboring Ukraine, the Polish defense ministry confirmed.

The agreement to deploy US military forces in Poland was made between US Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel, and Poland’s Minister of National Defense Tomasz Siemoniak during a telephone conversation on Sunday, March 9, 2014, according to a statement on the official website of the Polish Ministry of National Defense.

"The squadron will number twelve F-16 planes and will transport 300 soldiers," Polish Defense Ministry spokesman, Jacek Sonta, confirmed to AFP.

Initially, the training exercise was planned to be smaller but was increased and pushed forward because of the “tense political situation” in neighboring Ukraine, added Sonta.

The ministry also said that the aim of sending the units is to “strengthen Polish - American cooperation.” Part of the preparation team of US Air Force has already arrived on Polish territory.

The fighters were sent on the initiative of the Polish government, an initiative immediately accepted by Washington.

Poland is a western neighbor of crisis-torn Ukraine - between the countries’ capitals, Warsaw and Kiev, there is less than 700 km.

Earlier, the Polish media reported that US fighter jets would be stationed at the Lask air force base in central Poland.

Washington is also sending four F-15 planes to Lithuania in response to “Russian aggression in Ukraine and increased military activity in Kaliningrad,” according to the Lithuanian Defense Ministry.

On Saturday, US Navy destroyer, the USS Truxtun, crossed Turkey's Bosphorus and entered the Black Sea. The ship, with around 300 crew, was heading to “previously planned” training exercises with the Bulgarian and Romanian navies. When the vessel appeared in the Black Sea, Fox News declared that NATO’s bolstering presence in the Black Sea is a “defensive” measure to counter “Russian military aggression” in Ukraine.

USS Truxton, one of the largest destroyers ever built for the US navy, will reportedly stay in the Black Sea till mid-March as the Montreux Convention allows a warship of any non-Black Sea country to stay in the region for 21 day only.

The situation in Ukraine is close to financial and humanitarian catastrophe after the armed coup which took place in February. There are mass protests in eastern and southern parts of the country against the self-proclaimed authorities in Kiev.

The Autonomous Republic of Crimea has scheduled a referendum for March 16 on whether it wants to remain part of Ukraine, or join Russia.

http://rt.com/news/us-fighter-jets-poland-830/

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 10 Mar 2014 21:32

Nord Stream secures Gas Supplies for Germany and is built with Russian-German financial assistance ...... during 2008 crisis with Ukraine due to pricing Europe paid a heavy price and the idea of Nord Stream took shape.

Russia's Security Council proposes Ukraine settlement plan - Lavrov

Russia's Security Council has prepared its own Ukrainian settlement proposals for the American partners in to return the situation in that country to the framework of international law and to take the interests of all Ukrainian citizens into account, said Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

"We are not just passively receiving proposals from our colleagues. We have prepared our own proposals with the Russian Security Council's participation," Lavrov told President Vladimir Putin on Monday.

"The idea is to bring the situation back into the framework of international law with due account taken of the interests of all Ukrainians without exception, given the current deep state crisis in that country," he said.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 10 Mar 2014 21:33

OSCE receives invitation to send observers to Crimean referendum
World
March 10, 20:35 UTC+4

SIMFEROPOL, March 10, /ITAR-TASS/. The Crimean authorities have invited the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) to send its observers to the March 16 referendum, in which the autonomy’s residents will be asked to decide whether they want to join Russia or stay within Ukraine.

The invitation was handed over to Switzerland as the current OSCE Chairman in Office on Monday, March 10, officials at the Crimean parliament told ITAR-TASS.

They said they expected observers from both individual OSCE member states and from the Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) to come to Crimea.

Some 1,500 Crimean troops will guard polling stations during the referendum, Crimean Prime Minister Sergei Aksyonov said after attending the oath-taking ceremony in a special operations battalion.

“We will have about 1,500 armed troops by the time the referendum is held. They will be placed on duty at all polling stations,” Aksyonov said.”The referendum will be guarded by armed people, primarily the autonomy’s self-defence units and Armed Forces,” he added.

Aksyonov said OSCE observers would be let into Crimea on March 16. “I am confident that the parliament of Crimea will make it possible for them to be present at polling stations. This process is underway now and the referendum itself will be as transparent as possible,” he said.

The prime minister also commented on incidents with OSCE military observers who had not been allowed by the Crimean self-defence units to enter the peninsula over the past weekend.

“Some Western journalists come here and see only negative things, while refusing to see what is happening in Western Ukraine. Nevertheless they try to impose their point of view upon the people of Crimean and accuse them of all deadly sins,” Aksyonov said. “We do not want anyone to provide untruthful information about what is happening in the autonomy. This is why we kindly asked the OSCE guests to leave Crimea,” he said.

The Crimean parliament on Thursday, March 6, ruled to hold a referendum on accession to Russia on March 16. Earlier it was scheduled for March 30. Three questions will be asked during the referendum:

1. Do you support Crimea’s reunification with Russia as its constituent member?

2. Do you support the restoration of the Constitution of the Republic of Crimea of 1992 and the status of Crimea as a part of Ukraine?

The Russian Federation Council said it would support Crimea’s decision to join Russia if its people vote so in the referendum.

Crimean parliament speaker Vladimir Konstantinov said Russia had insisted on the presence of observers from international organisations at the referendum.

“Russia, our colleagues in the State Duma and the Federation Council believe that they [observers] should be present. They are working on this now, and our electoral commission is working on this, and there will be observers,” the speaker said.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 10 Mar 2014 22:08

Someone posted this timeline in UlanBator. Shows the Glorious Period of the Golden Mongols

member_28502 · Post by **member_28502** » 10 Mar 2014 22:40

so Kievan the malliable was the great grand father of Ivan the terrible of today?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 11 Mar 2014 02:10

We should think how this new Crimean crisis will impact Afghan withdrawl by US.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 11 Mar 2014 05:25

The Ungodly Talibs have already come out condemning Karzai and wanting a poll boycott by the people.Once they swing into action,it remains to be seen how strong Karzai's forces are and able to stave them off.The hope was that the former members of the Northern Alliance would once again get their act together and support Karzai with assistance from Russia.Russia now has a 3rd potential flashpoint on the cards apart from Ukraine and Syria.The shameless US,is once again willing to cohabitate with the ungodlies,who revile women,treat them like trash and destroy anything civilised,like the Bamiyan statues,ban music,etc.India has ahuge responsibility to support and equip Karzai with material and train his froces aaprtf rom building up Afghanistan's infrastructure.

The country that can be called upon for support is Iran.But here we have to throw off our servility to the yanquis ,the yoke on Indian foreign and strategic policy that Surrender Singh welcomed that was placed upon India's neck.Hopefully,this election will see it cast off and placed upon Singh's neck ,as he deserves to be put on trial for treason amongst other crimes.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/m ... mea-russia
Ukraine and the west: hot air and hypocrisy
The situation in Ukraine is volatile and murky, says author Marina Lewycka. But, by oversimplifying the country's historic tug-of-war with Russia, the west plays directly into the hands of Vladimir Putin

marina
Marina Lewycka
The Guardian, Monday 10 March 2014
Pro-Russian and pro-Ukrainian activists argue during a rally in Sevastopol on 9 March. Photograph: Viktor Drachev/AFP

Public clashes between Ukrainians and Russians in the main square in Sevastopol. Ukrainians protesting at Russian interference; Crimean Russians demanding the return of Sevastopol to Russia, and that parliament recognise Russian as the state language. Ukrainian deputies barred from the government building; a Russian "information centre" opening in Sevastopol. Calls from the Ukrainian ministry of defence for an end to the agreement dividing the Black Sea fleet between the Russian and Ukrainian navies. The move is labelled a political provocation by Russian deputies. The presidium of the Crimean parliament announces a referendum on Crimean independence, and the Russian deputy says that Russia is ready to supervise it. A leader of the Russian Society of Crimea threatens armed mutiny and the establishment of a Russian administration in Sevastopol. A Russian navy chief accuses Ukraine of converting some of his Black Sea fleet, and conducting armed assault on his personnel. He threatens to place the fleet on alert. The conflict escalates into terrorism, arson attacks and murder.

Sound familiar? All this happened in 1993, and it has been happening, in some form or other, since at least the 14th century.

Instead of blustering into their microphones in a frenzy of self-righteous indignation, the leaders of the US and EU would do well to spend a few minutes swotting up on the history of this volatile region. They would learn that Crimea has a long history of conflict between its Ukrainian, Russian and Tartar communities, and has been ping-ponging back and forth between Ottoman, Russian and Ukrainian jurisdiction for years. The last time the British got involved was in 1853-6, and that, too, was a shambles. This time, the west's intervention has been foolish and inept, and its hypocrisy is shameful.
Sailors of Black Sea fleet Sailors of the Black Sea fleet at Sevastopol in 1993. Crimea's naval bases are vital to Russia. Photograph: Robert Wallis/Corbis

Less than a month ago, a violent insurrection in the streets of Kiev against the elected government was greeted in the west as an uprising of "the people of Ukraine" choosing the west against closer ties with Russia. Everyone knows, if they stop to think about it, that such a simplistic characterisation of "the people of Ukraine" is wilfully naive, but the breathless journalists and huffy politicians gushing their stuff never stop to think. Thinking is dangerous. It can lead you to see the other person's point of view.

The one thing we know for sure is that we don't know what's going on. The situation is volatile and murky. But that doesn't stop western politicians jumping in feet first. We don't know exactly what forces are at play, but we still desperately want to pin our naive "goodies" and "baddies" labels on to somebody.

When things turned nasty in Kiev as armed protesters, some of them with fascist insignia, seized control of government buildings, the police cracked down, and snipers gunned down police and protesters in the streets. But who exactly were these snipers? The Estonian foreign minister, Urmas Paet, not a natural ally of Moscow, thought it was at least credible that they belonged to the anti-government Maidan protesters. "Gosh!" said the EU's Lady Ashton in a leaked phone call.

For a moment, the frothing stopped and a truce was negotiated, with the help of Poland, Germany and France, and supported by the US, Russia and the Kiev protesters, all realising that things had gone too far. The agreement allowed for a return to the old constitution, and new elections. Order was restored. Phew!

But this compromise was quickly sabotaged by extreme elements among the protesters, including some sinister far-right elements who are now a de facto part of the government. They pre-empted the outcome of the elections by continuing the occupations and installing themselves in power. (But it's OK: it's not a coup, because they are pro-west.) The Russians were alarmed. What was the point of negotiating, if the agreements were not respected, the Russian interior minister demanded to know.

As if in answer, president Viktor Yanukovych resigned. Victory was declared. Hurray! Neither the EU nor the US stood up for the agreement they brokered. Yanukovych fled, with his ill-gotten wealth. Yulia Tymoshenko was released from jail, with her ill-gotten wealth (which is OK in her case, because she is pro-west).

Let us just pause to remember, before we gallop on to the next crisis, that Yanukovych, for all his grotesque self-enrichment, was democratically elected, as few of the new self-appointed government have been. We shouldn't feel too sorry for him, though. His allegedly pilfered billions will have already been safely stashed abroad, no doubt in some western-administered tax-haven, where they will be protected by our very own financial whizzes.

And so it goes on. Unfortunately, someone in the new Ukrainian government flexes his anti-Russian muscles, and the Russian language is stripped of its official status throughout Ukraine. Fortunately, someone else sees sense and the move is cancelled. But if you were a Russian speaker, wouldn't you be rattled? Wouldn't you look around for support? Sixty per cent of Crimea's population is Russian. Suddenly, Russian troops appear in Crimea. Is it an annexation or a rescue? It depends on your point of view. Is there any evidence that Russia was behind the Crimean move to secede from Ukraine, or was it a homegrown initiative, as in 1993? The Russian Black Sea fleet had been docked on territory controlled by anti-Russians. And rumour has it that Nato is sniffing around for a new place to park its ICBMs. (But that's OK, because Nato is on our side.)

Moscow march for Putin A rally in Moscow in support of Vladimir Putin's stance on Crimea. Photograph: Sasha Mordovets/Getty Images Europe

I am no fan of Vladimir Putin, who is, in my opinion, a loathsome, anti-democratic tyrant with physique issues. But the EU and the US have played right into his grubby little hands. His popularity has soared enormously, because he has been doing exactly what a leader is supposed to do: he has been sticking up for the interests of his people. Would any western government allow its fleet to fall into the hands of its enemies? I hope not, though given the level of incompetence we have witnessed so far, anything is possible. Would any western government allow its enemies to station missiles a few miles off shore? Kennedy was hailed a hero for putting his foot down over Cuba. And Putin is being hailed a hero over Crimea. Whether the threats are real or not is irrelevant at this point.

The Crimean peninsula itself had been ruled by Russia for centuries until Nikita Khrushchev gave it away to Ukraine in 1954, a move that was deeply unpopular in Russia – some say Khrushchev was drunk at the time –and most ordinary Russians – as well, it seems, as a majority of Crimeans themselves – would like to see it returned to Russia. Putin is also off the hook over the Ukrainian economy. Previously, Russia had agreed to bail out Kiev, but it seems that now this cost will be borne by European taxpayers. Will Ukraine also be offered membership of the EU? This is what most of the Maidan protesters were hoping for, but in truth, it was never on offer.

All this makes me immensely sad, because Ukraine is a wonderful country, and Ukrainian people are clever, hard-working, resourceful, passionate, generous and good fun. They deserve better than to be pawns in this cynical east-west power game of spheres of influence, which has nothing at all to do with Iron Curtain anti-communism any more, and has even less to do with the wellbeing and happiness of ordinary people. Of course Ukrainians should be part of the EU: they have much to contribute, and were less of an economic basket-case before western advisers introduced them to casino capitalism. Maybe Russia will also one day be part of the EU. Why not? Of course Ukraine should not turn its back on its eastern neighbour. Putin is not to everyone's taste, for sure, but the Russian people are not the enemies of the Ukrainian people; on the contrary, in many cases, as in my own family, they are friends, colleagues, cousins, in-laws, husbands and wives.

The cynicism and hypocrisy with which some politicians have tried to pick apart the seams in this delicate and ancient fabric fills me with rage and despair. The histories of Russia and Ukraine have been entwined since at least the ninth century, and so have Russian and Ukrainian families. Only in some fascist paradise are people ethnically "pure".

In fact, Kiev was the original capital of Kievan Rus', the proto-Russian Slavic state of the early middle ages, but became too vulnerable during the Mongol invasions, and the administrative and royal headquarters were moved north, near Moscow, which gradually became the dominant region. The languages of north and south drifted apart, too, but are mutually comprehensible, and closer than, say, Italian and Spanish. Many people, like my own family, speak Surzhyk, a mongrel mixture of the two. During the 17th and 18th centuries, the western part of Ukraine was annexed by the Polish empire, which imposed Catholicism on a previously Orthodox population. During the 19th century, this region, Galicia, centred on the city of Lviv, belonged to the Catholic Austro-Hungarian empire. Not surprisingly, these regions of Ukraine are still predominantly Catholic, and see themselves as belonging in the west. In a way, this historic tug of war between Poland and Russia over Ukraine is still being played out, with Poland being the strongest champion of Ukraine in the EU. Poles sometimes refer to Ukrainians as "Eastern Poles", while Russians still sometimes call them "Little Russians".

At the end of the second world war, when Churchill and Stalin met in Yalta to define the boundaries of the new world order, western-born Ukrainians who were refugees or ostarbeiter working under the Third Reich were allowed to stay in the west, like my family, whereas those who came from further east were sent back, often to face the gulag. This is why most Ukrainians now living in western countries hail from that western Catholic part of Ukraine, and are likely to support the Maidan protesters.

Ukrainian nationalists with Stepan Bandera statue Ukrainian nationalists gather round the controversial statue of Stepan Bandera in Lviv. Photograph: ITAR-TASS Photo Agency / Alamy/Alamy

The second world war has left its gory mark on this part of Ukraine in another way, too. Galicia was home to the notorious pro-Nazi Ukrainian Insurgent Army, whose leader, Stepan Bandera, was viewed as a hero by some Ukrainian nationalists (including my maternal grandfather), but a fascist antisemite by others (including my paternal aunt).

The staggering wartime losses suffered during the second world war, which is still called the Great Patriotic war by those in Russia and the east of Ukraine, also underlies much of the bitterness now surfacing on the streets, since a member of the new Ukrainian government actually tried to ban the use of the term. Some 20 million Soviet citizens perished in the war against fascism, an almost unimaginable sacrifice; hostility towards those seen as neo-fascists is easily ignited. It is a defining historical sacrifice for eastern Ukrainians, in a way that Stalin's famine of the 1930s has become a defining sacrifice for Ukrainians in the west. In 2006, the authorities in Lviv erected a statue of Bandera in the central square, which provoked outrage in the east. It is Bandera's spiritual descendants who provided much of the organised violent muscle on the streets of Kiev. To tar the whole of the protest with the fascist brush would be very unfair, since most of the protesters are clearly just ordinary citizens fed up with the suffocating corruption of the old regime. But the western powers should be careful not to collude with neo-Nazis (though, to judge from much media coverage, their snipers and molotov cocktails are OK, because they're on our side).

What will happen next? I predict that nothing will happen. There will be a tremendous amount of huffing and puffing of hot air; well-oiled muscles will be flexed and machinery moved about. Some kleptocratic Russian and Ukrainian ladies will have to put on hold their next shopping trip to Harrods or Gucci. But for the bankers, oligarchs and oilmen, it will be business as usual. They will still own big chunks of London. And, fortunately, their offspring will still be able to enjoy their elite education in some of the world's finest private schools cut-price, thanks to the generosity of the British taxpayers who have deemed those institutions to be charities.

Let us hope I am right, because the alternative is civil war: people slaughtering each other in the streets over some fabricated notion of ethnicity. And even a bit of hot air and hypocrisy is preferable to that.

• Marina Lewycka is the author of A Short History of Tractors in Ukrainian. Her new book, Various Pets Alive and Dead, is published by Penguin.

Meanwhile,the playground of Russian oligarchs,London is the capital where further sanctions are being planned by the West,while the US states that it will not recognise any Crimean referendum.So much for its preaching about democracy!

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/m ... [b]Details of sanctions against Russia to be finalised in London[/b]
David Cameron indicates asset freezes and travel bans will be imposed within days as tensions continue to escalate in Crimea

member_20344 · Post by **member_20344** » 11 Mar 2014 05:50

is the talk of sanctions one of the cause for the recent spike in Foreign inflows to India causing the rupee to rise ? could be possible that money being diverted to sanction immune friendly markets like India..

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 11 Mar 2014 08:08

It is dangerous to read the Guardian. There are some people left who are impervious to sanctimonious hypocrisy. Most dangerous. Let us hope their cynicism does not deflect from the goals of freedom and liberty and democracy.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 11 Mar 2014 10:32

Was The Price Of Ukraine's "Liberation" The Handover Of Its Gold To The Fed?

Tonight, around at 2:00 am, an unregistered transport plane took off took off from Boryspil airport.

According to Boryspil staff, prior to the plane's appearance, four trucks and two cargo minibuses arrived at the airport all with their license plates missing. Fifteen people in black uniforms, masks and body armor stepped out, some armed with machine guns. These people loaded the plane with more than forty heavy boxes.

After this, several mysterious men arrived and also entered the plane. The loading was carried out in a hurry. After unloading, the plateless cars immediately left the runway, and the plane took off on an emergency basis.

Airport officials who saw this mysterious "special operation" immediately notified the administration of the airport, which however strongly advised them "not to meddle in other people's business."

Later, the editors were called by one of the senior officials of the former Ministry of Income and Fees, who reported that, according to him, tonight on the orders of one of the "new leaders" of Ukraine, all the gold reserves of the Ukraine were taken to the United States.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 11 Mar 2014 10:38

^^ Yes there were talks to the effect that Ukraine Gold Reserves are flown to the US in a secret operation ....not sure how reliable the news is though

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 11 Mar 2014 11:01

Irrespective how the crisis gets resolved ....... Russia needs to stop pegging its Rouble against USD and gradually move towards Euro & China.

China is planning to float its currency in 2015 ......so it makes sense for Russia to peg its rouble against Yuan and Euro (its 1st and 2nd largerst trading partner ).....just keep a small percentage in USD as they do right now for British Pound.

IF my stastics are right Russia exports $450 Billion of Oil/Gas yearly ....... delinking it to USD would be good for its own economy knowing that it can be prone for sanctions from US.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 11 Mar 2014 11:08

Ok got some stastics from CNN Money
http://money.cnn.com/2014/03/03/news/ec ... il-prices/

For the Russians, the trade in oil -- and to a lesser extent natural gas -- earns the country 70% of its $515 billion in annual export revenue and accounts for 52% of the federal budget, according to the U.S. Energy information Administration.

so it comes to around $360 Billion in Oil and Gas Revenue delinking it to USD and linking it to Euro and Yuan in years ahead will be a good move.

Here is a good article on how Oil Prices are controlled

Sam’s Exchange: Donald’s Diplomacy - OPEC and the Oil price

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 11 Mar 2014 12:58

French FM says Russia sanctions could come this week

French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said on Tuesday that sanctions againstRussia over Ukraine could be imposed as early as this week if Moscow fails to respond to a proposition designed to calm the crisis.

Fabius told the radio station France Inter that a referendum in the Crimea region on joining Russia set for March 16 was illegitimate and that the annexation of the region by Russia would be illegal.

"The only legitimate vote is that of May 25 for the president of the republic in Ukraine. The vote of March 16 has no legitimacy," Fabius said.

Yogi_G · Post by **Yogi_G** » 11 Mar 2014 13:07

In the Ukrainian theatre, a costly war option notwithstanding, the Russian forces can impose a defeat on any western military intervention. US cannot afford to get into a costly war of attrition which will eventually lead to a Ruskie defeat.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 11 Mar 2014 14:10

Let down by "chicken Kiev" ,the beseiged Ukranian forces are beginning to show cracks.
It was inevitable.Surrounded by superior and hostile forces,with no exit route except surrender,the tension and stress of the crisis and feeling of abandonment would take its toll.All that the new Crimean Army and Russians have to do is to just wait until the fruit is ripe and falls into their hands.

Crimea crisis: With no orders from Kiev, Ukraine's besieged forces are starting to feel let down
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 82606.html

The headquarters were surrounded again, by a far larger contingent than before. Some of the separatists wore mismatched uniforms and carried Kalashnikovs; all wore the red, white and blue emblem of the newly formed Crimean army bearing the motto “Prosperity Lies in Unity”.

One of the enduring images of defiance against Moscow's might was that of Colonel Yuli Mamchuk marching his men up the hill at Belbek airbase to demand the return of facilities seized. They kept going forward, unarmed, singing the national anthem, after the Russians fired warning shots.

The example has been followed across the state; other bases have refused to surrender, remaining awkward thorns as the Kremlin closes its fist over Crimea. In a remarkable display of sangfroid, the Ukrainians, more often aviation technicians than soldiers, played football as the Russians, including Spetznatz special forces, posted marksmen and brought up armoured personnel carriers.

But, as the redoubtable Colonel Mamchuk continued negotiations, facing yet another threat of attack unless he surrendered the part of the base he still held, something happened which illustrated that they could expect no practical support in their stance. A call came on his mobile telephone. It was one of the senior officials in Kiev. What were the instructions? "They just kept asking me to use my own initiative. That has been the case ever since the Russians arrived here. So we really are on our own here," the Colonel told me.

The initiative shown by individual Ukrainian commanders has kept a string of strategic locations out of Russian hands, sometimes earning them the respect of their opponents. The base at Bakhchisarai was one of those holding out. It is in a sensitive place, with a large population of Tatars, a community adamantly opposed to Moscow. After a week of trying to persuade Colonel Vladimir Dokychaev to disarm and depart, the Russians left, with a contingent of Soma Barona staying to man a checkpoint. What were their parting words? "They said they were proud of us, they said we are the kind of soldiers the new Crimean army needs," the Colonel told me. "I said the problem was that the new Crimean army would be run by you Russians, but we happen to be soldiers of Ukraine."

What advice had he received from Kiev? "Very little," was the terse reply. As I write this, news is coming through that a senior officer at Bakhchisarai has disappeared. Defected? Kidnapped by nationalists? We are trying to find out.

Crimea's separatist government, led by Sergei Aksyonov, has declared, after voting for rule by Moscow, that the only legitimate forces here are the Russians, and the Ukrainian military must either join the new Crimean forces under Russian command, or return to "their homes in Ukraine".

At the Simferopol headquarters, Captain Ina Katsonova described how "they tried bribery, higher salary, free flats" as inducements to join the new Crimean forces. "I told them that I am not prepared to sell my country. We are Ukrainians and we will stay with our command."

The officer commanding the headquarters, Maj-Gen Igor Vorunchenko, was blunt: "I served in the old Soviet army and I know some of the Russian officers who are here now: I like some of them. But I have no intention of joining them, nor are we going to any other part of Ukraine without orders from my superiors in Kiev."

What orders did he receive? We do not know because the "Crimean" troops now in place outside insisted this morning that their own orders, from the Crimean government, were to bar entry.

We later arranged a meeting with one of these soldiers. He met us in civilian clothes, at the home of a friend. Leonid, a 26-year-old sergeant, had decided to change allegiance, he said, after a lot of soul searching, and remained troubled by what he had done.

"I cannot see how the situation can change," he said. "Crimea will become a part of the Russian Federation. We as soldiers were not allowed to do anything; we were without direction. What is this government in Kiev doing? Nothing for us. We got no help from them. At the end, what choice do we have but to join the new army? We were let down, weren't we?"

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 11 Mar 2014 17:07

Threats against Russia are stuck in the past

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 11 Mar 2014 17:13

DIA Chief mentions it has warned the administration regarding Crimea events

Transcript: Interview With Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn

Agnimitra · Post by **Agnimitra** » 11 Mar 2014 22:31

The Diplomat: India Backs Russia’s ‘Legitimate Interests’ in Ukraine

India broke with the international community in acknowledging that Russia has legitimate interests in Ukraine.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 11 Mar 2014 23:30

"the international community" I presume, does not include Russia? Means the same Wild Bunch that all rode in, herd-like, to invade Eyerak looking for "Dubya-Em-Dee", on the lyin', thievin' say-so of Colleen Bin Powell, Tony B. Liar and Dubya? And killed over 3 million innocents, and has left some 100,000 Americans disabled?

kmkraoind · Post by **kmkraoind** » 11 Mar 2014 23:54

Crimea votes for independence as US and Russia clash - DDnews

Updated on : 12-03-2014 12:13 AM
Lawmakers on the flashpoint Crimean peninsula on Tuesday voted for independence from Ukraine ahead of a referendum on joining Russia while Washington rebuffed talks with Moscow in one of their fiercest clashes since the Cold War.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 12 Mar 2014 00:09

Even the most biased western press acknowledges the history of the Crimea and its predominant Russian character.What they can't stomach is Russia exercising its fundamental rights to protect the interests of the Crimean people when the govt. in Kiev,was toppled using gangsta methods with the connivance of the EU/US.The yanqui establishment and the EU post Cold War era,like the western powers after WW1,and the coinciding of this crisis with centenary of the "Great War",is a timely reminder of what happened after the armistice.The humiliation of Germany at Versailles,which led to WW2!

The US/West/EU are attempting to treat Russia in the same manner as Germany was at Versailles with their asinine "sanctions",which though thus far have been less than even a slap on the wrists of Putin,have enraged Russia which cannot understand the US/West's blatant hypocrisy (after its several invasions in recent times and loss of life of millions of innocents) ,in its slanted comparisons with fascism.

The real "push" to counter the "putsch" is going to come on Sunday with the Crimean referendum,which the West calls illegal. Ousted Pres.Yanukovych vows a return to the Ukraine and to head the country once more.The pretender to the throne,acting pres.Torch-enough and PM Arsenic Yatsin-yuck,are desperate and the latter is flying post haste to Washington like one Sharif of Pak,when his hide was being tanned at Kargil,to plead with Uncle Sam for some face-saving solution.Losing the existing autonomous region of the Crimea either as an independent state or part of Russia,is not going to win him the popular votes amongst pro-Ukranian factions.If as is likely,the West imposes further sanctions against Russia,Pes. Putin-who has vowed in earlier statements ,then watch out for the "boomerang effect",promised by Putin who is acknowledged universally to be a man of his word.Watch this space!

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/m ... referendum

Ukraine parliament delivers ultimatum to Crimea over referendum
Crimean assembly told to call off independence referendum or face dissolution, as US attempts at diplomacy stall

Authorities have closed Crimea's airspace to commercial flights.

Also on Tuesday, the acting Ukrainian president, Oleksander Turchinov, announced that a new national guard would be formed in response to Russian attempts to annex Crimea.

Turchinov said mismanagement of the armed forces under the former president, Viktor Yanukovych, meant the Ukrainian military had to be rebuilt "effectively from scratch". The acting defence minister said the country had only 6,000 combat-ready infantry compared with more than 200,000 Russian troops on its eastern borders.

Hopes of a diplomatic solution to the crisis were dealt a blow after the US secretary of state, John Kerry, abandoned a visit to Moscow to discuss the crisis and the US and Russia traded accusations over who was to blame.

As western officials prepared to meet in London on Tuesday to identify Russians who will be subject to asset freezes and travel bans that they hope will persuade Moscow to withdraw its presence from Crimea, the French foreign minister, Laurent Fabius, sought to ratchet up the pressure by warning that sanctions could be imposed as early as this week.

So far, Russia has paid little heed to criticism from the west. Its foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, said Moscow was preparing counter-proposals to a US plan for a negotiated solution to the crisis. Lavrov said Russia had been prepared to receive Kerry on Monday but the US secretary of state called him on Saturday to postpone his visit.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 12 Mar 2014 00:18

Had Nehru done same in the case of Lahore etc, we would have crushed/Massaled the the Pakistani Islamist Terrorist Thingy in bud itself.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 12 Mar 2014 04:43

Vetran K.P. Nayar writes

Too cold for Comfort India will recalibrate

TOO COLD FOR COMFORT
- Ukraine will make India rethink its strategic priorities
DIPLOMACY: K.P. Nayar

Ideally, the next government in New Delhi ought not to have to make hard choices early on in its honeymoon period. But a rapidly changing global order may make it imperative that a new prime minister will not have the luxury of putting difficult and challenging foreign policy decisions on the back-burner.

Ukraine’s president, Viktor Yanukovich, fled Kiev on February 22, the day on which his detractors illegally assumed power. For 12 days after the regime change, the United Progressive Alliance government behaved ostrich-style, its head buried deep in the sand in the expectation that the crisis in Kiev would just go away. The ministry of external affairs explained away its silence with the excuse that “India has been closely following the recent events in Ukraine.” However, it is to the credit of the UPA that when Shivshankar Menon, the national security adviser, spoke nearly a fortnight after Ukraine shook up relations between Russia and the United States of America on the one hand, and between Russia and Europe on the other, he was characteristically unambiguous and enunciated New Delhi’s position in terms that Moscow could expect from a friend of long standing like India.

The next government will have to build on India’s Ukrainian cards that Menon has laid on South Block’s diplomatic table. But its challenge will be to go beyond mere words and craft a strategy that will serve India’s interests, taking into account the forces that events in Kiev, since demonstrations there from November 21, have unleashed.

Fundamental to any such strategy is a frank and wholesome acknowledgement that, for the remainder of Barack Obama’s presidential term, it will not be business as usual between the White House and the Kremlin. This realization will have to be incorporated into dealings with Washington, which a new government will have to craft and refashion as a priority once it assumes power at the end of May.

Towards this effort, South Block must call up its cold warriors, who have been in cold storage during the long love-fest between New Delhi and Washington. These are men and women in the Indian Foreign Service who did well by their country during the decades of the Cold War, men and women who can contribute to the otherwise pathetic institutional memories needed for making policy on Raisina Hill, the seat of power in the capital.

It is reasonable to assume that if Narendra Modi becomes prime minister — or even if another leader from the Bharatiya Janata Party becomes head of the next government — the country will face a terrorist attack within months, if not weeks. It is in the nature of the cross-border threats that confront India that such an attack will be designed as a message to the new government. The severity or otherwise of such an attack will depend on what is on the minds of those in the Inter-Services Intelligence in Rawalpindi who are tasked with that operation, even if it is launched by terror groups whose connection with the ISI may appear to be tenuous, so that the military intelligence outfit can escape blame for any direct involvement that may otherwise complicate Pakistan’s engagement with the new set up on Raisina Hill.

With events in Ukraine potentially changing equations in Asia — and South Asia, in particular — India should not expect any support from Washington beyond the usual wordy condemnation of terrorism in such a scenario. In any case, New Delhi’s experience with the notorious terrorist facilitators, David Headley and Tahawwur Rana, ought to be a constant reminder to the next government that even at the best phase of Indo-US relations intelligence cooperation from Washington, which could have prevented some of the worst cross- border terrorist carnage in India, was found wanting.

A revival of the Cold War mentality in Washington — which is in answer to the prayers of America’s military-industrial complex, what with wars in Iraq and Afghanistan winding down — also means, for India, a return to the geopolitical equations of the 1960s and 1970s with regard to its neighbourhood.

From India’s point of view, the most significant development since the overthrow of Yanukovich has not been the United Nations security council meetings, the European Union parleys or the military moves to threaten Russia. It has been Monday’s long telephone conversation between the Chinese and US presidents, Xi Jinping and Obama.

Beijing’s leadership is at its best in spotting opportunities for preserving and advancing their core national interests. In the Ukraine crisis, they have sensed an opportunity to influence the course of the global order with relevance to their country. Since the Americans cannot take on Russia and China at the same time, Beijing’s leadership recognizes that, by making the right moves with the Americans, they can manipulate Obama into making concessions on his Asian ‘pivot’ and other issues of concern in Beijing.

It will not be lost on Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, that China did not go as far as India did in acknowledging ‘legitimate’ Russian interests in Ukraine. The Chinese are willing to give the benefit of doubt to the new forces in power in Kiev. All that is missing from this diplomatic scenario are Pakistani gyrations.

For Indians, there is a sense of déjà vu in all this. In 1971, under similar circumstances, the Pakistanis secretly facilitated Henry Kissinger’s travel to Beijing, which eventually led to the historic visit of the president, Richard Nixon, to Beijing and China’s rehabilitation in the world. This time round, the Chinese may well become the bridge between the US and Russia, and eventually have a role in resolving the crisis over Ukraine.

Any collaboration between Washington and Beijing over Ukraine will have an inevitable fallout in Central Asia, too, where Beijing has assiduously developed good assets over the years. After the P.V. Narasimha Rao years, when India was among the first countries to open embassies in the Central Asian republics, New Delhi faltered, yielding ground to Pakistanis.

One result of a revival of the Cold War from Ukraine is that Central Asian governments may be forced to choose between the West and Moscow. India too will then have to adjust its approach to Central Asia with an inevitable spillover of such adjustments on Afghanistan. Several years ago, India opened its first overseas air base in Tajikistan: the base is still Indian, but the aircraft stationed at the base is now entirely Russian. A fresh, creative look at such assets in its extended neighbourhood will have to be part of reassessments by a new government in New Delhi.

Finally, the secrets tumbling out of Ukraine, such as revelations about how regime change was orchestrated in Washington ought to make Indians sit up. It is not inconceivable that tactics such as those used in Kiev could be used by disaffected elements in restive parts of India: Kashmir, volatile areas of the Northeast. The possibilities are wide and fearfully large, and the potential for outside support for these immense. Where will India turn to in upgrading its intelligence capabilities to cope with such new challenges? Here again, a return to Cold War preferences offers an answer, all of which demands a comprehensive look at not only foreign policy but also strategic priorities. It will not be easy after a decade of complacence and false comfort that has been shattered by the events in Ukraine, and a sudden revival of the Cold War.

[email protected]

He seems to like the revival of Cold War.

However this is Russia and not Soviet Union. Its not ideological but great game at work.

No one want the revival of the Cold War.

KPN is reacting to the gross MUTU behavior of the misnamed Singh.

Reaching back to Cold War is over-reaction.

in the US, PRC duopoly thread we explored the their relations.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 12 Mar 2014 05:16

Geopolitics may be defined, crudely, as the influence of geography upon politics: how distance and terrain and climate affect the affairs of states and men.

Mackinder summarised his theory in Democratic Ideals and Reality (1919) thus:
Who rules East Europe commands the Heartland; (Eurasia)
Who rules the Heartland commands the World Island; (Eurasia and Africa)
Who rules the World Island commands the World

Currently there is the longest cold war which precedes the cold war of the20th century after the rise of communism. Russian expansion to the east to the pacific by the 1700 triggered the Europeans to expand worldwide.

By the 1800 Europeans (British) had the southern end of the Asian landmass under their control. Russians had expanded towards the central Asia and consolidated by 1900.By the 1900 the British and the Russians were locked in the central Asia forcontrol and influence.

By 2000 the Russian empire had receded back to its position in 1800. The Asian landmass has been in the eyes of the Europeans even before America was born. After the dependence of oil for the growth of the modern economy after 1900s the Middle East and central Asia have taken a new role in geo-politics.

Central Asia has become the center stage of the 21st century and is right in India's backyard.

Geo-political goals of the western major powers have been total domination of the Eurasian landmass (Read UKRAINE), securing the oil/gas resources and extending the covert empire for the new century and maybe even the millennium.