Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

AjitK · Post by **AjitK** » 10 Mar 2014 19:24

RajeshA wrote:No my assumption was not that he has NDA/India's interests in mind.

My assumption too is that Raj Thakeray too is a politician and it would be beneficial for him to reach some understanding with Shiv Sena, so that both their losses can be minimized.

It's a war of attrition. He will not rest till Uddhav is embarrassed enough to admit defeat. He is rich and not short of funds. Uddhav will be loath to acknowledge Raj's strength in the urban areas. They're not concerned about its effect on the NDA.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 10 Mar 2014 19:50

Firstpost ‏@firstpostin 2h
Rebel RJD leader Ram Kripal Yadav to join BJP in New Delhi tomorrow

He will be fighting Misa Yadav, daughter of Lalu Prasad Yadav from Pataliputra, Bihar!

Ram Kripal Yadav was the second most powerful Yadav in RJD after Lalu.

******

Wow!

Question is how many Yadavs are going to move to BJP now. Even before this people were estimating that 30% of Yadavs would be moving to BJP.

After this, a lot more would get a reason to vote BJP.

Often in politics, important is not who is stronger, but which wave is stronger! If the perception is that Lalu is weakening, then Yadavs would be voting someone else.

First Ram Vilas Paswan moving to NDA and now Ram Kripal Yadav moving to BJP! Heavy hits!

Till now, Lalu has only been able to show that he could get Congress on his side, but nothing else. Nobody is running towards RJD, except may be some small time disgruntled chaps. Even JD-U looks better than RJD right now.

RJD and SP may end up becoming Muslim only parties!

SPattath · Post by **SPattath** » 10 Mar 2014 20:08

As per news, BSR Congress will not merge with BJP,but Sriramulu will contest and BJP will not oppose him.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 10 Mar 2014 20:19

nageshks wrote: So why is he contesting Hooghly?

Nothing to loose. They are unlikely to win Hooghly.

archan · Post by **archan** » 10 Mar 2014 21:17

The newcomers also bring their old party culture with them. Cause for concern.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 10 Mar 2014 21:24

Thanthi tv has update their opinion poll in TN. It is now AIADMK 16, NDA 6, DMK 0, INC 0 out of 22.

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 10 Mar 2014 22:37

Never knew "Lottas" existed in MH as well. But Raghunath Rao was born in MH onlee.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 10 Mar 2014 22:43

gandharva wrote:

If this happen this is BJD_BJP_2009 moment of 2014. Far worse and great pull off from INC.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 10 Mar 2014 22:46

Only extreme measures are needed. The problem is with UT being unable to assert his leadership as it is a derivied one. Hence RT is the rebel.

Also this could be a Pawar move to NCP+SS consolidation in MH?

bhargava · Post by **bhargava** » 10 Mar 2014 23:07

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 10 Mar 2014 23:39

Muppalla wrote:
gandharva wrote:
If this happen this is BJD_BJP_2009 moment of 2014. Far worse and great pull off from INC.

BJP cannot really openly ally with MNS simply because that would hurt BJP in UP and Bihar, as well as with North Indians in MMR. MNS would have to publicly make a change in their politics for that, and the time left to elections is simply not enough for that corrective.

In this elections, it may hurt NDA, but then BJP too can put up candidates in most MH constituencies, leaving some for RPI(A), Swabhimani Shetkari Sanghtan (SSS), Rashtra Samaj Paksha (RSP).

Then people can cast their vote directly to NaMo, without going through the Senas.

In this election, I fear, NaMo wave may not be enough for BJP to win seats if Shiv Sena puts up candidates.

Another option is for NaMo to bring in Pawar into NDA, and make NCP put up candidates against Congress.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 10 Mar 2014 23:44

bhargava wrote:

BJP is taking too long! DMDK isn't worth it. Better to give KMK couple of more seats, and throw DMDK out.

DMK has already announced its list of 35, so chances are DMDK would not be able align with DMK now. Neither can it align with AIADMK due to history.

BJP should be happy with PMK, MDMK, IJK, PNK. It allows more seats to the allies, and BJP too can fight on many more. Any way if KNMK/KMK allies with AIADMK, chances are some faction would still ally with BJP.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 10 Mar 2014 23:55

RajeshA wrote: BJP is taking too long! DMDK isn't worth it. Better to give KMK couple of more seats, and throw DMDK out.

It is a case of Pon Radhakrishnan wanting to win Kanyakumari at any cost. Drunkard's party had won 60K votes in 2009 - roughly the amount of votes by which Ponnar lost. He wants to make absolutely sure he wins this time.

BJP should be happy with PMK, MDMK, IJK, PNK. It allows more seats to the allies, and BJP too can fight on many more. Any way if KNMK/KMK allies with AIADMK, chances are some faction would still ally with BJP.

I said this two months ago, that BJP should ignore Drunkard and focus on contesting around 15 seats on its own (apart from its single seat allies). In any case, KMK is more valuable to BJP than DMDK (KMK votes are concentrated in the region where BJP is comparatively strong, so there is synergy). BJP is always too clever by half and never does anything until the last hour, and then gets screwed because it did not have enough time to campaign. Given just how few cadres there are in TN, I would not be surprised if many rural TN voters go vote *DMK because NaMo party is not in TN (the canard has already been spread by the two big bad Dravidian parties). I have written off TN as well for this election. Another case of BJP shooting itself in the foot. BJP could have won 2-3 seats on its own, if it fought without any allies. Now, because they could not campaign because they kept talking with `allies', they will get 0.

After screwing itself in AP, now it is the turn of TN. Great going, BJP.

MuraliRavi-ji was saying Congress can stop BJP at 160. Actually, BJP does not need anyone to stop it at 160. It is completely capable of screwing itself and stopping itself at 150-160.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 11 Mar 2014 00:51

^^^I was reading that 65% of people of TN want Modi as PM, but only 15% would vote for BJP.

JohnTitor · Post by **JohnTitor** » 11 Mar 2014 01:17

^^ Does that mean that 50% think india has a presidential system of governance??

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 11 Mar 2014 01:21

Mort Walker wrote:^^^I was reading that 65% of people of TN want Modi as PM, but only 15% would vote for BJP.

BJP will probably announce its candidates after the elections - they will keep talking to the Drunkard (who, given his extreme inebriation, is usually in la-la land by noon) till then.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 11 Mar 2014 02:02

poorly trishanku parliament with 20-25 AAP MPs and AK will be next PM, then?

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 11 Mar 2014 02:06

Shonu wrote:^^ Does that mean that 50% think india has a presidential system of governance??

no. that means modi is popular than bjp in TN.

and that modi will become pm because jj will support modi when push comes to shove (that's my thought as well).

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 11 Mar 2014 02:53

Here is my reading for just BJP on its own in a few states:
GUJ: 26
RAJ: 20
MP: 26
CH: 10
UP: 50
DEL: 5
BIH: 20
JAR: 10

Total = 167. Now, the other big MP-rich states are MH-48, AP-42, WB-42, TN-39, and KA-28 for a total of 199. The most BJP has got on its own is 182 in 1999. The real question is can Modi can turn his popularity in to votes for the BJP?

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 11 Mar 2014 02:57

Mort Walker wrote:Here is my reading for just BJP on its own in a few states:
GUJ: 26
RAJ: 20
MP: 26
CH: 10
UP: 50
DEL: 5
BIH: 20
JAR: 10

Total = 167. Now, the other big MP-rich states are MH-48, AP-42, WB-42, TN-39, and KA-28 for a total of 199. The most BJP has got on its own is 182 in 1999. The real question is can Modi can turn his popularity in to votes for the BJP?

Del 5??, I doubt that number. in the state polls, muslims voted congress and congress was able to manage 25% vote share with some hindu votes. This time, even if some AAP voters (ex non voters or cong voters), go to BJP, BJP at best will get 40% vote and AAP natural vote share may dip to 25%, but all the muslims who voted cong will move lock stock barrel to AAP to stop BJP. I doubt they can pull off the 5.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 11 Mar 2014 02:59

Out of curiosity, how many NRIs are going back to vote this election? I will be going back to vote.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 11 Mar 2014 03:02

AK has damaged himself after resigning. Remember, electing MPs is a little different than electing MLAs. Also, because of Modi, more urban voters are likely to vote for the BJP in the north and west.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 11 Mar 2014 03:06

The MH fiasco will cost lotus heavy. Sheesh. After the AP mess, now MH? And TN, and KA as well...

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 11 Mar 2014 03:30

Hari Seldon wrote:The MH fiasco will cost lotus heavy. Sheesh. After the AP mess, now MH? And TN, and KA as well...

I dont think NDA in MH will break. If it indeed breaks, we all can just forget 2014. I think its media games. If u see carefully zee was reporting that UT is meeting his party guys to discuss elections, timesnow spinned it and said, UT is meeting to discuss whether to continue NDA or not

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 11 Mar 2014 03:37

nageshks wrote:Out of curiosity, how many NRIs are going back to vote this election? I will be going back to vote.

Well, welcome home, saar. Good to know the heartbreak from the Ap fiasco has healed enough to permit this. Pls ensure voter list has your name etc. I ran into some trouble coz of that...

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 11 Mar 2014 03:54

if Uddhav wants to commit suicide, nobody can stop him.

is this bad for NDA? yes.

is this bad for BJP's chance to take gaddi in Dilli? yes.

but it will also once and for all destroy SS. they will be gone. the mantle of being the Opposition to the Congress-Secularist fronts falls then rightfully on the BJP's shoulders without any "coalition" constraints. this is a good thing.

this election is laying the seeds of destruction for a whole host of people. BJP might seem like it's taking the hit. BUT NOWHERE...not in MH, not in AP....will BJP ultimately become the fall-guy for what is happening. others will bask in temporary glory. while some people will commit outright suicide like UT wants to do.

BJP will march on. they might not come to power. but simply every "secularist"/"third front"/"regional" alternative to BJP gets decimated. this is a happy result. it's like process of elimination. the Indian voter will be forced to go through the whole cornucopia of "fronts", systematically rejecting every one of them turn by turn, and finally wake up to see the Lotus ever untouched and floating pristinely.

BJP will march on. no need to go into gloom and doom. 2014 is turning out to be the kind of year which brings multiple forces out into play, forcing INC and their backers to fight on multiple fronts, exposing more and more of their own pawns.

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 11 Mar 2014 04:13

Outsider Amit quells heartland dust
Operation UP by Modi aide

New Delhi, March 10: Sunder Singh Bhandari, remembered in BJP’s legend and lore for silencing the likes of Atal Bihari Vajpayee and L.K. Advani in internal meetings because he was supposedly endowed with nerves of steel, was a transformed persona when in Uttar Pradesh.

Bhandari, who passed away in 2005, was a quintessential RSS pracharak whose words were measured and whose demeanour was stony. Yet when he was Uttar Pradesh’s central minder for the BJP, he would quake in anger each time journalists mentioned the state and the local leaders.

Even Bhandari, whose reputation as a “no-nonsense” organisational person preceded him, could do nothing to contain the state’s factional heads who at that time were Kalyan Singh, Kalraj Mishra, Lalji Tandon, Om Prakash Singh, Kesri Nath Tripathi and Rajnath Singh.

“The script went something like this. These district chieftains squabbled among themselves in Lucknow. But when they heard the footsteps of an outsider entering the BJP’s state headquarters, they closed ranks, ganged up against him and ensured he could not get his little toe inside,” an old-timer recalled.

That was in the 1990s.

Nearly 15 years later, the protagonists on the BJP’s Uttar Pradesh landscape remain unchanged — a testimony to their resilience and manoeuvrability.

But in 2014, when Tandon — who thinks he is to Atal Bihari Vajpayee what Bharat was to Ram in the Ramayan, a turf-protector — started to throw shenanigans at the first whiff of trouble over his Lok Sabha seat, Lucknow, Amit Shah swung into rearguard action.

In 24 hours, Tandon had to retract his threat that if anyone other than Narendra Modi was fielded from Lucknow, he would oppose the candidate. It is an open secret that Rajnath wished to shift from Ghaziabad to Lucknow before the Lok Sabha polls, for various reasons, including the apprehension that the Aam Aadmi Party could be a mighty challenger.

Ever since Shah, who was Advani’s and later Modi’s political manager in Gujarat and now a general secretary, was tasked to clean up the act in Uttar Pradesh in 2013, he made one thing clear to the local worthies: he was there for a specific purpose — to maximise the BJP’s returns from Uttar Pradesh, an indispensable factor for getting power at the Centre.

He was non-aligned to any faction or leader and he had no vested interest in the state because the moment his job was done, he would leave, possibly not to return in time to come.

Shah, assisted by two deputies from Bihar, directly touched base with district and block-level leaders and office-bearers.

His first job was to vet the membership lists and sift the fake from the real— an exercise that unsettled the big guns who often flaunted their “success” in membership enrolment to perpetuate their hegemony.

In this, he was helped by several workers who waited for years without expecting and getting nothing from the BJP and finally glimpsed hope of “fair treatment”.

It helped that everyone in Uttar Pradesh’s top hierarchy was an electoral dud: despite kicking and screaming, Tandon could not ensure that his son, Gopal Tandon, won the Lucknow North seat in 2012. Mishra, in his seventies, won his first Assembly election, in 2012, by a whisker.

Rajnath could not deliver a single Assembly segment from Ghaziabad, his Lok Sabha constituency. Tripathi lost from Allahabad. The three who won from Varanasi’s Assembly segments were perennial victors and owed no thanks to Murli Manohar Joshi.

Shah’s message to rebels and potential rebels was simple, said sources. “Do you want the BJP to be out of power at the Centre yet again? Are you putting your own interests above the party’s and most importantly, the nation? If you do, our ‘India First’ campaign goes for a toss,” he was quoted saying.

That Rajnath and the RSS were “100 per cent” behind him helped Shah’s endeavour. “Nobody is unhappy, nobody has told you and me that,” said Shah.

But in quelling the incipient rebellion threat posed by Joshi and Tandon, sources said the RSS also sent a larger message to Advani and Sushma Swaraj who repeatedly articulated their unhappiness with the BJP’s working in the Modi regime publicly or made known to the media their private utterances through their confidants. “They should hold their horses,” a source said.

Sushma is reportedly keen to shift to Bhopal from Vidisha while Uma Bharti, now an MLA in Uttar Pradesh, wants to return to Madhya Pradesh via a Lok Sabha contest.

http://www.telegraphindia.com/1140311/j ... x5GTtvoFUF

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 11 Mar 2014 04:27

They should take away SS twitter account password. If she still shrieks send her to Hyderabad to contest.
Will findout Chinnamma or what.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 11 Mar 2014 04:45

nagehsks & muraliravi, If by chance NDA trumps,
in Karnataka what will be the post poll situation?

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 11 Mar 2014 04:55

ramana wrote:nagehsks & muraliravi, If by chance NDA trumps,
in Karnataka what will be the post poll situation?

If NDA comes to power, there won't be any immediate changes, but the balance of power decisively swings in favour of Yediyurappa. Prahlad Joshi, Basanagouda Patil Yatnal, and Anant Kumar won't like it, but they cannot do much. However, how long that balance of power remains in favour of Yediyurappa remains to be seen. Yeddy can shoot himself in the foot with his nepotism, and paranoia without anyone's help. How well he can get along with the other powerhouses (all of whom have been working unitedly thus far for NaMo) is something that will determine his (and the BJP's, by extension) fate. If Yediyurappa has benefited with some wisdom in his political exile, he will go slow, build consensus and retain his power in the party.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 11 Mar 2014 06:11

devesh wrote:if Uddhav wants to commit suicide, nobody can stop him.

is this bad for NDA? yes.

is this bad for BJP's chance to take gaddi in Dilli? yes.

but it will also once and for all destroy SS. they will be gone. the mantle of being the Opposition to the Congress-Secularist fronts falls then rightfully on the BJP's shoulders without any "coalition" constraints. this is a good thing.

this election is laying the seeds of destruction for a whole host of people. BJP might seem like it's taking the hit. BUT NOWHERE...not in MH, not in AP....will BJP ultimately become the fall-guy for what is happening. others will bask in temporary glory. while some people will commit outright suicide like UT wants to do.

BJP will march on. they might not come to power. but simply every "secularist"/"third front"/"regional" alternative to BJP gets decimated. this is a happy result. it's like process of elimination. the Indian voter will be forced to go through the whole cornucopia of "fronts", systematically rejecting every one of them turn by turn, and finally wake up to see the Lotus ever untouched and floating pristinely.

BJP will march on. no need to go into gloom and doom. 2014 is turning out to be the kind of year which brings multiple forces out into play, forcing INC and their backers to fight on multiple fronts, exposing more and more of their own pawns.

Oh come on, this time they should focus on winning elections onlee. Uddhav is not committing suicide. He is asking a simple question to both Modi and Gadkari, if MNS is contesting elections but only against SS and not against BJP, what kind of a deal did BJP offer MNS in return for this favor. He knows very well that MNS is doing this favor to BJP in return for a favor that BJP will do to MNS in Assembly polls in MH. Uddhav has every right to know what deal BJP has struck with MNS. This is a shady thing both Modi and Gadkari have done. No D4 etc..here, Modi was very much involved in this deal with Raj. too smart by half

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 11 Mar 2014 06:15

Maybe Gadkari and Modi will give UT same deal? Will UT give the same deal that RT is giving now?

Essentially ensure BJP victory in LS. Can UT offer that? So far he has been doing his best to undo that. Past six months a study of his statements show his ambiguity.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 11 Mar 2014 06:17

ramana wrote:Maybe Gadkari and Modi will give UT same deal? Will UT give the same deal that RT is giving now?

Essentially ensure BJP victory in LS. Can UT offer that? So far he has been doing his best to undo that. Past six months a study of his statements show his ambiguity.

Ramana ji,

If my guess is correct, SS wont do anything now, BJP-SS will go into LS 2014 as partners. But I am sure, SS will do its best to sabotage BJP at the ground level, at least in the Mumbai seats.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 11 Mar 2014 06:27

Hari Seldon wrote:The MH fiasco will cost lotus heavy. Sheesh. After the AP mess, now MH? And TN, and KA as well...

One more time, this Panipat moment without Marathas!
History will repeat owrr Bandhu Apne Hi Bhai ke Haatho Maregga !

BhairavP · Post by **BhairavP** » 11 Mar 2014 06:35

muraliravi wrote:
ramana wrote:Maybe Gadkari and Modi will give UT same deal? Will UT give the same deal that RT is giving now?

Essentially ensure BJP victory in LS. Can UT offer that? So far he has been doing his best to undo that. Past six months a study of his statements show his ambiguity.
Ramana ji,

If my guess is correct, SS wont do anything now, BJP-SS will go into LS 2014 as partners. But I am sure, SS will do its best to sabotage BJP at the ground level, at least in the Mumbai seats.

That will affect 5-6 seats at the most. That's it. We need to relax, I don't think this is anything other than UT having a hissy fit. Let him. The sooner it all spews out, the better.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 11 Mar 2014 06:41

Cross posted from NM thread.

I am afraid many are being carried away with minor set backs like old gang resistense etc and predicting doom. We have to understand that much of it will be media creation. While D4 is alive and kicking (unfortunately) they are not in a position to do much damage. We have to understand major issues in BJP are decided by RSS which is fully behind NM. Almost no one I have spoken in MH and UP want to vote to mafia or its b teams like SP, BSP. Educated youth I have spoken from UP are saying that this time it will be Hindu- Muslim vote and minds were already made. Jats, Bramins and other upper caste fellows and huge sections of BCs are in favour of NM and he is a huge hit among youth. Everyone from UP i have asked saying that BSP may be the main rival but with SC vote along she may not be able to do much.

Further there is also the winnability factor. There is almost a universal belief that NM will win 2014 and most of the voters will vote for the winner who they think do something good for them.

BJP always had voters who like it but not vote for it because it is not winning party in their respective places like AP, Kerala etc. Once you brake that and local money bags etc are with you then you have a BJP win.

So no Dhothi wetting yet. Many things may go wrong and even NM could be bumped off ( I believed mafia tried in Patna and failed so that time now passed) Just focus on winning each and every where. Be it thripura or Kerala or UP or in AP. 272plus is still possible.

Santosh · Post by **Santosh** » 11 Mar 2014 07:35

muraliravi wrote:Oh come on, this time they should focus on winning elections onlee. Uddhav is not committing suicide. He is asking a simple question to both Modi and Gadkari, if MNS is contesting elections but only against SS and not against BJP, what kind of a deal did BJP offer MNS in return for this favor. He knows very well that MNS is doing this favor to BJP in return for a favor that BJP will do to MNS in Assembly polls in MH. Uddhav has every right to know what deal BJP has struck with MNS.

Isn't MNS also putting up candidates in Vidarbha? So how is MNS not contesting against BJP?

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 11 Mar 2014 07:57

Let's wait until the seat position is clarified for TN, AP and MH. There will be a lot of horse trading before and after elections. One estimate was Rs. 5 crore per seat traded.

IMHO, the BJP on its own will gain more seats than the 182 that it got 1999. The question is will it be 10% more?

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 11 Mar 2014 08:01

Saamna just written in support of NDA. SS will be in NDA. Expect few seats to BJP in states like WB. Before 2004 BJP got around 185 regularly and mafia is around 130. This time the caliculations will by much much better minimum.

Rahul Mehta · Post by **Rahul Mehta** » 11 Mar 2014 08:20

There are 82 crore voters. This time, voting will be around 80%. i.e. 64 crore voters will vote. To get 200 MPs, BJP will need at least 25% votes = 16 crore votes. To get 300 seats, NDA will need 35% = 21 crore votes.

In 2009 elections, there were 72 crore voters of which 65% had voted. BJP had got 19% of polled votes. This time BJP was hoping to get a large number of youth votes. I dont know how much dent AAP made in this youth voters.

Dalits, Muslims, Bangladeshi, slum votes of Congress are intact. The middle class votes will get divided between AAP and BJP. Overall, I dont see a very rosy picture, unless BJP can convince MNC-owners (who control media) to reduce AAP's coberage