Malaysian Airlines Flight MH-370 goes missing

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 12 Mar 2014 03:00

ramana wrote:BS. The plane was owned by Malaysia and they own the investigation.

Well not exactly. If the aircraft crashed in some other country's territorial waters, that country will carry out the investigation. If it was in international waters, then I believe the Malaysians will carry it out. The problem in that area is that different countries have different ideas about their territorial waters.

rohitvats · Post by **rohitvats** » 12 Mar 2014 03:02

Well, one theory being floated is that the a/c was not 1,000 meter below assigned level but AT 1,000 meter/3,000 feet height...and that this explains the reports about locals in the coastal area witnessing lights very low in the air and loud aircraft noise...very drastic scenario!

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 12 Mar 2014 03:06

nachiket wrote:
ramana wrote:BS. The plane was owned by Malaysia and they own the investigation.
Well not exactly. If the aircraft crashed in some other country's territorial waters, that country will carry out the investigation. If it was in international waters, then I believe the Malaysians will carry it out. The problem in that area is that different countries have different ideas about their territorial waters.

Can you tell us where it crashed? So until that is found its the Malaysians who have the lead.
The quoted article was psy-ops trying to say no one knows who is in charge. Until its established the plane crashed into terriotrial waters ie 12 nm or 200 nm economic exclusion zone (EEZ) it is the Malaysians that are in charge.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 12 Mar 2014 03:07

RV, That was my concern all along that it was flying at an altitude to evade radar detection and transponder shut off. Like the hijacked planes in US on 9/11.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 12 Mar 2014 03:11

If it took four days for the Malaysian military to tell us that the plane was off-course, it simply must be that the Malaysian military must be involved in some kind of smuggling or something, and regularly tracks off-the-record airflights. Therefore this unidentified radar shadow they must have all assumed to be one of these off-the-book flights, until a light-bulb went off in someone's head that it might be the missing Boeing 777.

What I mean is the poor shmucks who monitor the radar must have so frequently told their higher-ups about unidentified overflights and nothing happened that this must have been filed routinely as yet another of those.

rohitvats · Post by **rohitvats** » 12 Mar 2014 03:16

^^^That is why it is my assertions that the flight traveled over Thailand and not Malaysian airspace...it would be simply preposterous for an air force to not track and interdict an unknown wide body a/c - that too post 9/11 - flying through its airspace. If it was in fact over Thailand, then the RMAF would not have bothered except for keeping track lest it enter their airspace.

Later, tube lights would have gone off and somebody started reading the information from different radars together. As I have shown in my post earlier, RMAF has sector managing the radar network which feed into master control facility...so, RMAF is capable of putting all the information together.

saip · Post by **saip** » 12 Mar 2014 03:19

CNN is showing a video of the search over Malacca straits. The Malaysian defense minister in the plane. C130 flying at 500'

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 12 Mar 2014 03:38

If the flight overflew the southern Thai peninsula, why haven't the Thais themselves said anything ? Like the Malaysians, they too ought to have a radar system that would have tracked a massive 777 flying across with transponders off meaning they couldn't interrogate it electronically.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 12 Mar 2014 03:53

depends on radar coverage. few countries have 100% airspace surveillance. a lot is dependent on transponders. coverage issues in india are no better.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 12 Mar 2014 03:55

saip wrote:The picture of the black box. It will last for 30 days. And the Malayasian military wasted four of those days. Unbelievable.

http://www.straitstimes.com/sites/strai ... aphics.png

Think of perhaps some people on life rafts. Four days could mean the difference between life and death. A horrible death from thirst.

I think someone high up in the Malaysian chain-of-command does not want the plane to be found; or at least not found with any survivors. The longer the delay in finding the plane, the more likely that even if someone survived the plane no longer flying, they would not survive till they were found.

putnanja · Post by **putnanja** » 12 Mar 2014 04:28

Since IN has heavy presence in Andaman islands, they would have spotted the 777 if it came close to Indian airspace. I have doubts about this malacca straits theory.

saip · Post by **saip** » 12 Mar 2014 04:34

People in life rafts in Malacca straits would have been spotted long ago or reached land as it is quite narrow. It has probably the most heavily traveled shipping lanes.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 12 Mar 2014 04:42

^^^ I hope so.
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 12 Mar 2014 04:55

The most repeated theory on the NYT readers' comments seems to be that the Malaysian military shot down the aircraft by mistake and are trying to cover up.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 12 Mar 2014 05:01

Well, people love CT's. Far more intriguing than a mechanical failure or pilot error.

member_28502 · Post by **member_28502** » 12 Mar 2014 05:16

A_Gupta wrote:The most repeated theory on the NYT readers' comments seems to be that the Malaysian military shot down the aircraft by mistake and are trying to cover up.

I have been to Kuala Lampur, on arrival it clearly says death penalty to drug traffickers
Once the military knew there were drug traffickers on the flight they went ahead and shot the air craft .
Explanation

Transponder switched off (so no identity of A/C)
Flying Low (to evade detection)
Not the usual flight corridor
Radar detects a/c even in long distance because of RC
Fire and forget order

Can this happen yes indeed
Precedents

Iran Airbus shot down by USS Vincennes on 3 July 1988

The USNS Rappahannock, a fuel resupply ship, fired on what the officials called a "small, white pleasure craft July 17th 2012

Finally Italian Marines in broad day light shot fishermen in Indian waters for self defence against lightly armed men with fishing nets

(Two Italian marines, who allegedly shot dead two Indian fishermen off Kerala's coast on February 15, )

References
Golden Triangle
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... rld-en.svg
Golden Crescent Includes Iran Afghan and yes Pakistan
Apocalypse Now
The Beach

Rajiv Lather · Post by **Rajiv Lather** » 12 Mar 2014 05:26

My CT. But let me list some points, maybe there is some other explanation:

1. From the very first day, one of the possibilities being put forward was that of 'pilot suicide'. But there was no accompanying data to explain why it could be so.

2. Then we see the strange spectacle of news leaks that the pilot was a 'tech geek' and that he had a sophisticated flight simulator for 777 set up on his home computer.

3. Why would a senior pilot with thousands of flying hours under his belt, have a FS of the same aircraft type that he flew regularly on his job ? It is not as if 777 is a fighter or some acrobatic display plane and he had fun on that.

4. My CT - he was planning and perfecting something that included use of the 777 but it was not part of his job. And he may have also been training a co-pilot or a junior for the same.

5. My CT - he practiced and practiced and fine-tuned his plan.

What happened next ? Will come to it later...

member_28502 · Post by **member_28502** » 12 Mar 2014 05:35

What about writing code for his own creation of game or simulator
He was geek you say?

member_22733 · Post by **member_22733** » 12 Mar 2014 06:00

Slightly OT:
WRT life rafts in the Indian ocean area: Please watch this movie to understand what it is to get stuck in a life raft and have to navigate with nothing other than a sextant:

All is lost.

The movie has no dialogue, and in that sense its almost entirely an action movie. But it describes the emptiness that is the Indian ocean. The shipping routes are bunched together and far and few in between. The lines that you see in the map are actually of microscopic width.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 12 Mar 2014 06:22

If you want to look at satellite photos of the area and maybe help spot something, go to
http://www.tomnod.com

The news-story is here:
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/world/c ... -1.1717485

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 12 Mar 2014 06:30

This dailykos diary
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/03/1 ... whole-time

claims:

We know that there are ongoing wargames in the seas where Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 vanished. At least four nations are involved. They are all glued to their radar during war games. They all tracked the flight, even after the transponder was turned off.

Do we know that? Which four nations?

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 12 Mar 2014 06:39

A_Gupta wrote:This dailykos diary
We know that there are ongoing wargames in the seas where Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 vanished. At least four nations are involved. They are all glued to their radar during war games. They all tracked the flight, even after the transponder was turned off.
Do we know that? Which four nations?

What if communication was jammed by these War gaming guys?

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 12 Mar 2014 06:46

Incredible that nothing has been found so far. These "shot-down" explanations don't really hold, hey, the airliner is said to have turned, and it sure does not seem to have fallen down along its original flight path. So the disappearance from radar was 99.999% not due to a crash. If we believe that the thing seen on Malaysian Air Force radar was the airliner, then we must believe that the airliner was on a very inexplicable flight path. If Malaysian Air Force is admitting seeing it, they can't be the ones who shot it down. If it was shot down over Thailand, I think that would have been seen as well. If it was shot down anywhere else in that area, wreckage would be floating, and by now the area has been well and truly scanned.

So I am beginning to believe with about 30%+ chance that it did not crash. That means that there are/were live people in severe danger somewhere, and even a 0.1% chance is enough to justify an all-out effort to find them. So this is no longer just a forlorn wreckage search.

The war-games ppl may not be able to see something at 1000 feet unless it coming straight over them.

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 12 Mar 2014 07:03

UlanBatori wrote:Incredible that nothing has been found so far. These "shot-down" explanations don't really hold, hey, the airliner is said to have turned, and it sure does not seem to have fallen down along its original flight path. So the disappearance from radar was 99.999% not due to a crash. If we believe that the thing seen on Malaysian Air Force radar was the airliner, then we must believe that the airliner was on a very inexplicable flight path. If Malaysian Air Force is admitting seeing it, they can't be the ones who shot it down. If it was shot down over Thailand, I think that would have been seen as well. If it was shot down anywhere else in that area, wreckage would be floating, and by now the area has been well and truly scanned.

So I am beginning to believe with about 30%+ chance that it did not crash. That means that there are/were live people in severe danger somewhere, and even a 0.1% chance is enough to justify an all-out effort to find them. So this is no longer just a forlorn wreckage search.

The war-games ppl may not be able to see something at 1000 feet unless it coming straight over them.

This is a little surprising. How and why do you discount depressurization?

That airliner could very well be another 2000 miles along that heading. Over the sea, in calm weather, on auto pilot until fuel runs out. This is not AF447, and I suspect wreckage will drift far and wide. They may never find something unless by accident.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 12 Mar 2014 07:13

I discount depressurization because the aircraft descended after the turn. If there was explosive decompression like something coming through the windshield and incapacitating the pilots, how did it make a nice turn and descend just about 5 kilometers over a distance of 500 kilometers, and how did all the transponders shut down? The engine data transmission shut down, the main transponder shut down, no radio contact.

If there was just some minor depressurization like in the main cabin, the crew would have transmitted MayDay. Anyway that would not have incapacitated the flight crew.

Manny · Post by **Manny** » 12 Mar 2014 07:24

The 777 is one of the most sophisticated aircrafts out there.. it just doesn't dissapear.

Its got terrorism written all over it!

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 12 Mar 2014 07:32

Ramana et al: About the time element.
Pls see this story that came out right after the airliner disappeared:

Malaysia's flag carrier said flight MH370 disappeared, without giving a distress signal, at 2:40am local time on Saturday (18:40 GMT Friday), about two hours after leaving Kuala Lumpur International Airport. It had been due to arrive in Beijing at 6:30am local time on Saturday (22:30 GMT Friday).

But WHERE was the airliner when seen at 2:40AM? Wasn't that the MILITARY sighting, not the civilian radar? Didn't it disappear off the regular ATC radar at 1:40AM?

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 12 Mar 2014 07:35

UlanBatori wrote:I discount depressurization because the aircraft descended after the turn. If there was explosive decompression like something coming through the windshield and incapacitating the pilots, how did it make a nice turn and descend just about 5 kilometers over a distance of 500 kilometers, and how did all the transponders shut down? The engine data transmission shut down, the main transponder shut down, no radio contact.

If there was just some minor depressurization like in the main cabin, the crew would have transmitted MayDay. Anyway that would not have incapacitated the flight crew.

Decompression happens but is not catastrophic (structural integrity is not compromized). oxygen supply doesnt function properly or not used, pilot has the time to set the autopilot heading (likely the first thing in the checklist) and dives for lower altitudes. Last human action. Airplane will align itself to the heading, and fly uncontrolled. Altitude 23k or pattern height is accidental. Many reasons possible why the plane stabilized.

Trransponder etc explained by one of many reasons -- decompression happenned at satcom area,electrical malfunction around the antenna (supported by NO ARTAS data even for the first two hours -- unless also not released). May be things were going wrong even while there was control. May be there is cost cutting by the airline.

Two hours out is likely handed over to some mid-course ATC. There may not be frequent contact even otherwise. No indication has been given of the procedures. Could be there is no good ATC coverage, even in Europe people have outsourced to other countries. No traffic controllers have spoken publicly.

If there was no reason to be on the horn when decompression started, then stabilization (aviate,....) would likely mean no radio contact unless airplane has stabilized. This one didnt.

This is more Helios than AF447 or Lockerbie.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 12 Mar 2014 07:39

Well, one theory being floated is that the a/c was not 1,000 meter below assigned level but AT 1,000 meter/3,000 feet height...and that this explains the reports about locals in the coastal area witnessing lights very low in the air and loud aircraft noise...very drastic scenario!

Where is this pls and where was the sighting?

So the a/c had transponder off but lights on? And flying at 3000 feet?

Shreeman: But why set the heading the way it was done? Why not 180 degree turn? There was no airport at the chosen heading, was there? So pilots had to be somehow unable/ decided not to use radio or transponders.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 12 Mar 2014 07:40

Transponder failure:
Boeing 777, Air India B773, March 10, 2014
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 776979.cms

Boeing 787, Air India B778, total transponder failure
http://www.aeroinside.com/incidents/typ ... dreamliner

member_22733 · Post by **member_22733** » 12 Mar 2014 07:45

You can discount explosive decompression (really rapid depressurization) in this scenario, in case it was not terrorism. The reason is the pilots would have informed the ATC right away and then headed back as soon as possible (happened on one Air Aloha IIRC).

If its not terrorism the only thing I can think of is that the highly redundant electric system failed completely. Resulting in the plane flying "itself" possibly chaotically and also cutting off all contact with any ATC etc. If it was fully fuelled, it could reach another 3000 - 4000 kms. If it flew southwest we should be looking somewhere closer to Antartica.

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 12 Mar 2014 07:45

UlanBatori wrote:
Well, one theory being floated is that the a/c was not 1,000 meter below assigned level but AT 1,000 meter/3,000 feet height...and that this explains the reports about locals in the coastal area witnessing lights very low in the air and loud aircraft noise...very drastic scenario!
Where is this pls and where was the sighting?

So the a/c had transponder off but lights on? And flying at 3000 feet?

Shreeman: But why set the heading the way it was done? Why not 180 degree turn? There was no airport at the chosen heading, was there? So pilots had to be somehow unable/ decided not to use radio or transponders.

Return to base, as good as any other options given the location. Pilot's judgement. Only one or two actions were performed by the pilot. If only heading and diving attitude set before incapacitated or control loss, then this would be the outcome. May day would come prior to any airport selection. This was a 360 left incomplete.

There is no confirmation of 3000 feet vs 23000 feet yet. Only 23000 feet in the media. 23000 feet no lights at the ground unless meteor.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 12 Mar 2014 07:58

We need to know more about flight crew.

saip · Post by **saip** » 12 Mar 2014 07:59

UlanBatori wrote:
Well, one theory being floated is that the a/c was not 1,000 meter below assigned level but AT 1,000 meter/3,000 feet height...and that this explains the reports about locals in the coastal area witnessing lights very low in the air and loud aircraft noise...very drastic scenario!
Where is this pls and where was the sighting?

So the a/c had transponder off but lights on? And flying at 3000 feet?

Shreeman: But why set the heading the way it was done? Why not 180 degree turn? There was no airport at the chosen heading, was there? So pilots had to be somehow unable/ decided not to use radio or transponders.

Try New strait Times.

The witnesses said heard noise around Marang on the east coast. did not match the military radar.

http://www.nst.com.my/latest/font-color ... e-1.507926

jash_p · Post by **jash_p** » 12 Mar 2014 08:03

still my gut feeling says some one in Land Pure knows how and where the plane disappear.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 12 Mar 2014 08:06

http://www.aeroinside.com/item/3665/air ... ers-failed

Air India B788 near Kuala Lumpur on Feb 5th 2014, all flight management computers failed

An Air India Boeing 787-800, registration VT-ANJ performing flight AI-301 from Melbourne,VI (Australia) to Delhi (India) with 215 people on board, was enroute at FL380 about 20nm north of Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia) when all three flight management computer system failed simultaneously. The crew diverted to Kuala Lumpur for a safe landing on runway 32L about 65 minutes later.

There are really very few failures that my searches turn up. This is one of the more strange ones. The March 10, 2014 transponder failure of another Air India jet is another one. Neither resulted in an accident.

When you read the incident reports, it would seem that it is very hard to down one of these planes. For this to be an accident, many bad things have to happen together it would seem.

For example:
http://avherald.com/h?article=460cef66

An Air France Boeing 777-200, registration F-GSPC performing flight AF-562 from Paris Charles de Gaulle (France) to Beirut (Lebanon), had just reached cruise level 370 about 70nm northwest of Zurich (Switzerland), still in French airspace and about to be handed off to Germany, when the crew set the transponder code for loss of communication. About 5 minutes later the aircraft turned around and returned to Paris for a safe landing on Charles de Gaulle's runway 26R still squawking loss comm about 55 minutes later.

Air France confirmed the aircraft returned to Paris due to a "technical incident". The flight has been postponed to the following day and is estimated to depart Paris as flight AF-562A with a delay of 17.5 hours.

A passenger reported the crew announced that all three radio units on board had failed.

Suppose all three radio units onboard MH-370 failed. The crew tried to set the transponder to "loss of communication", but instead turned it off? Or the transponder failed too? They turn around to get back to Kuala Lumpur. They certainly don't want to enter Chinese airspace with no transponder and no radio. Then some third failure occurs?

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 12 Mar 2014 08:17

LokeshC wrote:You can discount explosive decompression (really rapid depressurization) in this scenario, in case it was not terrorism. The reason is the pilots would have informed the ATC right away and then headed back as soon as possible (happened on one Air Aloha IIRC).

If its not terrorism the only thing I can think of is that the highly redundant electric system failed completely. Resulting in the plane flying "itself" possibly chaotically and also cutting off all contact with any ATC etc. If it was fully fuelled, it could reach another 3000 - 4000 kms. If it flew southwest we should be looking somewhere closer to Antartica.

Of course, not. Aircraft have had minor structural issues and decompression far more many times for oxygen masks to exist over each seat in the first place. Explosive decompression starting at the cockpit is a very possible scenario. Freak turbulence, localized structural failure, electrical fire away from tanks, any number of non-human reasons.

Post 9/11 closed door guarantee will give some more time to the passangers, in this case, which is kind of disturbing.
The pilots were able to take some action -- most likely towards starting a return to base. Then control was lost.

You are right about the rest, except for time/opportunity available to the pilots. We dont know how long the plane was under control. The military primary track (if its correct) shows stabilized flight. If mechanically/structurally intact, this plane could be anywhere -- and in water. Lets see if they find it or if it becomes a modern Earhart.

Pilots are veering away from external human interference as the likely reason for relatively good reason. This is mostly about location and lack of coverage.

Why hasnt indonesia put up their data? Did they not catch it coming into their airspace? This seems to focus the search in the straits. But the airplane could be well past indonesia.

saip: the east coast theory depends upon military radar track (otherwise the noise could be from sonething else as well). if the military track is right, then this was stabilized uncontrolled flight. look where fuel would run out, except if stability was also lost due to further deterioration.

The transponder/comm failure was likely a part of whatever resulted in loss of control. Communication failures occur. Infrequently, but they do. In rented airplanes, pilots carry own secondary devices! This was a more sophisticated commercial jet, but its still quite possible. By itself, and decoupled from loss of control, it would not cause a problem as serious as this.

There is not much of a conspiracy here. All views would lean towards decompression if military track had been published up front. The confusion is due to the poor response/information management.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 12 Mar 2014 08:18

http://media.freescale.com/phoenix.zhtm ... highlight=

Freescale Semiconductor Employees Confirmed Passengers on Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370

AUSTIN, Texas--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Mar. 8, 2014-- Freescale Semiconductor (NYSE:FSL) has confirmed that 20 of its employees were confirmed passengers on Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 en route from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing. Twelve are from Malaysia and eight are from China. The entire Freescale Semiconductor community is deeply saddened by this news. The company is continuing to monitor the situation and will provide more information as it becomes available.

“At present, we are solely focused on our employees and their families,” said Gregg Lowe, president and CEO, Freescale. “Our thoughts and prayers are with those affected by this tragic event.”

The company has assembled counselors and other professionals through Freescale’s Employee Assistance Program, with around-the-clock support for those impacted by this tragedy.

About Freescale Semiconductor

Freescale Semiconductor (NYSE:FSL) is a global leader in embedded processing solutions, providing industry leading products that are advancing the automotive, consumer, industrial and networking markets. From microprocessors and microcontrollers to sensors, analog integrated circuits and connectivity – our technologies are the foundation for the innovations that make our world greener, safer, healthier and more connected. Some of our key applications and end-markets include automotive safety, hybrid and all-electric vehicles, next generation wireless infrastructure, smart energy management, portable medical devices, consumer appliances and smart mobile devices. The company is based in Austin, Texas, and has design, research and development, manufacturing and sales operations around the world. http://www.freescale.com

Freescale and the Freescale logo are trademarks of Freescale Semiconductor, Inc., Reg. U.S. Pat. & Tm Off. All other product or service names are the property of their respective owners. © 2014 Freescale Semiconductor, Inc.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 12 Mar 2014 08:21

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... -spot.html

{November 2013}

In its directive the FAA, which is responsible for supervising the safety of American-made aircraft such as Boeing, told airlines to look out for corrosion under the fuselage skin.

This, the FAA said, could lead to a situation where the fuselage was compromised leading to possible rapid decompression as well as the plane breaking up.

"We received a report of cracking and corrosion in the fuselage skin underneath the SATCOM antenna adapter," the FAA warned. "During a maintenance planning data inspection, one operator reported a 16-inch crack under the 3-bay SATCOM antenna adapter plate in the crown skin of the fuselage on an aeroplane that was 14 years old with approximately 14,000 total flight cycles.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 12 Mar 2014 08:26

more than congested malacca, its the sundra strait that seems like root node of most shipping lanes there
http://www.louislamourgreatadventure.co ... utesLg.jpg

to the south there must be a lane between cape town to australia, but thats about it and it wouldnt be so busy as the northern routes.