Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

KJo · Post by **KJo** » 13 Mar 2014 01:11

Chota nitpick onlee, but let's spell our state as Gujarat, instead of Gujrat (Paki city).

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 13 Mar 2014 02:09

RajeshA wrote:Rony ji,those estimates cannot be for BJP only, but must be fore NDA. In Punjab, BJP is fighting only on 3 seats and in Maharashtra on < 26.

I got it from a friend.He said its BJP only.If what you are saying is correct, probably he got it wrong then. But if its NDA, then how come AP is showing 0

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 13 Mar 2014 02:23

I'm not sure what purposes is served by quoting a set of numbers and asking 'how good are these estimates'. The answer is 'as good as you want them to be'.

There's a substantially greater detail of analysis within this forum on a state by state seat by seat basis, that is more analytical than any readymade sequence of numbers quoted by another source.

Trying to reconcile every estimate will be tiring and distracting because the numbers are opaque. It's better to focus on estimates that come with detailed analysis on at least a state by state basis. There are few such sources. 5forty3 is an excellent one.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 13 Mar 2014 02:29

Next week will be a good week to get an assessment, when most candidates are declared. Survey after that is more reasonable.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 13 Mar 2014 03:19

Ramana garu: I looked at the table to post, but the numbers don't add up. As per my calculations of his data, the total should be 221 for BJP, but he says 245. I know he has not listed all the States, but then I thought he included them in the "Others".

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 13 Mar 2014 03:27

fanne wrote:Next week will be a good week to get an assessment, when most candidates are declared. Survey after that is more reasonable.

+1.
150 lotus candidates to be declared today. 'bout effing time too, else when do they start campaigning, eh?

moi personal wishlist includes kiran bedi from new dilli, hema malini from TN... her stepson sunny deol from west UP to appeal to 'em jats there... among others.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 13 Mar 2014 03:28

My optimistic prediction, for BJP, is 543 seats. And my pessimistic is 0. Take it with a pinch of salt and a huge margin of error.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 13 Mar 2014 03:32

SwamyG wrote:My optimistic prediction, for BJP, is 543 seats. And my pessimistic is 0. Take it with a pinch of salt and a huge margin of error.

You'll make a great psephologist still! You can't go wrong, except ..... if the elections are cancelled!

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 13 Mar 2014 03:36

Hari Seldon wrote: moi personal wishlist includes kiran bedi from new dilli, hema malini from TN... her stepson sunny deol from west UP to appeal to 'em jats there... among others.

Enthukku saar? Meeku intha kola veri ?

Madrasis will ask "Hema Malini who?"

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 13 Mar 2014 03:38

^^ Yeah, but isn't she Tam? Can speak Tam, I hope. And connect with Tams. And she's a successful one at that, had made her mark at the national level and all, after all... no?

Anyway, sunny deol baba for saharanpur would be nice... and anil jumble or javagal srinath also on some battleground KA seats would be nice. Maybe sreesanth can be fielded from KL....

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 13 Mar 2014 03:40

RajeshA wrote:
SwamyG wrote:My optimistic prediction, for BJP, is 543 seats. And my pessimistic is 0. Take it with a pinch of salt and a huge margin of error.

You'll make a great psephologist still! You can't go wrong, except ..... if the elections are cancelled!

That is one of my fears, Congress' Dirty Tricks Department would do something to postpone the elections. I think they are on their second-last plan/idea which is to sabotage BJP changes by influencing/forcing BJP to mess up their seats distributions. This sabotage can be achieved by fermenting internal trouble and wrong/weak alliance creation.

After the seats are distributed, Congress will assess the situation once again. If NaMo is still going to win 543 seats, then it will spring to its last plan - declare emergency er declare unstable conditions for holding elections. AAP and Pakistan can help.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 13 Mar 2014 03:42

Hari garu. Simran, Khusbhoo ityadi have more connection than the tamil speaking Hema.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 13 Mar 2014 03:50

SwamyG wrote:Hari garu. Simran, Khusbhoo ityadi have more connection than the tamil speaking Hema.

If BJP really wants to change the poll equations, they should somehow get Rajanikanth. If they do, all bets on Amma and Thatha are off.

sunnyP · Post by **sunnyP** » 13 Mar 2014 04:02

Chandragupta wrote:
archan wrote:I'm not on twitter (should get on with times!) but has motorham sabah errr gunjan modi been notified that s/he has been caught in their eNREGA act?
She (or He) has changed the DP. I did an image search, the new photu belongs to one Komalpreet Kaur.

This is what they are up to.

http://storify.com/NitiCentral/congress ... stani-girl

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 13 Mar 2014 04:08

RajeshA wrote:
SwamyG wrote:My optimistic prediction, for BJP, is 543 seats. And my pessimistic is 0. Take it with a pinch of salt and a huge margin of error.

You'll make a great psephologist still! You can't go wrong, except ..... if the elections are cancelled!

Almost as good as that black inked yogendra yadav onlee.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 13 Mar 2014 05:48

nageshks wrote:
SwamyG wrote:Hari garu. Simran, Khusbhoo ityadi have more connection than the tamil speaking Hema.
If BJP really wants to change the poll equations, they should somehow get Rajanikanth. If they do, all bets on Amma and Thatha are off.

He has enough business interests, his daughters careers, his son-in-law's career ityadi. He will put them at risk by sticking his head out. So even if his heart is with Modi! his brain would make him think twice. He can indirectly make the noises without angering JJ.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 13 Mar 2014 07:05

^on the numbers...
something makes me feel kerala will have more bjp this time.
there are stronger muncipal members from bjp.
there are big talks about bjp hitting the roads
it might happen.. but, again.. it is just hearsay from aam-junta speak. these are the types who might switch in a flip of a second at the end.

--

regarding tn.. these are the folks of the desh-land who consider change as last resort. amma and thatha has to die.. then akka-mama will take over the same reigns. the d-world will be filled with d-politicks onlee...unless, bjp does what it is doing in kerala... engage the people from muncipality workers.

member_28173 · Post by **member_28173** » 13 Mar 2014 12:07

http://freepressjournal.in/sena-cadre-r ... -with-bjp/

"It is Modi and not the Sena who is looking to make the government at the Centre. Even if Sena loses its votes to MNS in parliamentary polls, Sena is not the loser as it would affect Modi’s prospects. Then why should Uddhav settle a dispute with his rival Raj and accept him?” questioned political commentator Pratap Thorat.

My Point is IT seems it is NaMo's Govt and Not BJP Govt ; No where common man thinks it is NDA govt :p Real RISK

I vote for SS but it is worst of dictatorship ; Only Matoshree gets all limelight ; NO CREDIT WHATEVER TO SAINKS.

Yes I have met Sainks who are very committed ; may give RSS cadre run for money... SS have make them irrelevant is biggest risk of SS. TOO much centralization

member_28173 · Post by **member_28173** » 13 Mar 2014 12:18

http://www.deccanherald.com/content/391 ... ollow.html

Why I think SS - UT is doing a good JOB as NDA Converor !!!!

http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/why- ... 49311.html

I REALLY REALLY WANT Vaghela Now to Join SS ... wink dynamic-works-for-me.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 13 Mar 2014 12:45

Modi finds unlikely fans in J&K’s PDP, separatists (TOI)

Mirwaiz Umar Farooq, chairman of the Hurriyat's moderate faction, was emphatic, saying BJP had a clear stand on Kashmir and has the "capacity" and political will to solve the problem. The Mirwaiz said a decade of Congress rule at the Centre reversed the work done by the Atal Bihari Vajpayee-led NDA government to resolve the conflict.

"There was a forward movement on Kashmir during Vajpayee's tenure as PM. He declared Kashmir a humanitarian issue which should be addressed within the ambit of humanity," the Mirwaiz said.

PDP president Mehbooba Mufti said, "A section of Kashmiris believe Modi can take some tough decisions on the Kashmir issue... (they believe) he may emulate Vajpayee who took some bold steps to infuse in the people hope of a final settlement of the Kashmir issue." However, she ruled out alliance with BJP in the state or even in New Delhi.

Other separatist groups and several political analysts in J&K are also wishing for an NDA victory to take the process of a Kashmir solution forward. Prominent separatist Nayeem Khan said a BJP-led government would address Kashmir with its external and internal dimensions. "It was Vajpayee who looked for a Kashmir settlement with Pakistan. The people of J&K have great respect for his statesmanship and for the initiatives he took for the settlement of the Kashmir issue," Khan said.

Aah, so the implicit pressure to conform to ABV-esque policies continues, eh?

member_28173 · Post by **member_28173** » 13 Mar 2014 12:52

Hari Seldon wrote:Modi finds unlikely fans in J&K’s PDP, separatists (TOI)

>>Aah, so the implicit pressure to conform to ABV-esque policies continues, eh?

My Pain Point : Gujarat will Loose Modi as CM and India will Get Vajpayee as PM

Irony is Gujarat wants next dimension of Modi and he is running away. Next re-structing in GUJARATI CULTURE TO take it next level .e.g. Isolate from Western Banking mafia.

And Another Irony is India is Yeaning for Next Vajpayee .... That's the best they want to WISH for :p

Both hopefully will get what-they-yean-for

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 13 Mar 2014 14:59

If NaMo is going to be the next PM of India, He is going to surprise many people including his Bhaktas and detractors.

johneeG · Post by **johneeG** » 13 Mar 2014 15:02

What kind of surprise?

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 13 Mar 2014 15:28

chandturakhia wrote:
Hari Seldon wrote:Modi finds unlikely fans in J&K’s PDP, separatists (TOI)

>>Aah, so the implicit pressure to conform to ABV-esque policies continues, eh?
My Pain Point : Gujarat will Loose Modi as CM and India will Get Vajpayee as PM

Irony is Gujarat wants next dimension of Modi and he is running away. Next re-structing in GUJARATI CULTURE TO take it next level .e.g. Isolate from Western Banking mafia.

And Another Irony is India is Yeaning for Next Vajpayee .... That's the best they want to WISH for :p

Both hopefully will get what-they-yean-for

Your pain point is being clueless

Some anti-Indian rabid Islamist hopes Modi will make some concession on Kashmir (meaning handing it over to Pakis. That is the only settlement these murderous terrorists want).

You have such an immense faith in those scums. The scum can wish for any thing he wants.

Immediately label Modi as Vajpayee and how Modi is sold to Islamic terrorist MAFIa network of Pakis.

Get some grip and stop being clueless.

The man fought all the way to SC/Media/RW/LW against special scholarships for minorities.

Have some faith in him or go vote for MAFIA.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 13 Mar 2014 16:18

johneeG wrote:What kind of surprise?

People who think he is going to be a Hindu ideologue or will become ABV-2 or will be overwhelmed with the problems left behind by UPA or will go after dynasty with vengeance or will snub America or will somehow pander to Kashmiri separatists etc. etc.. will be surprised.
He will be nothing but grander self of what he has been in Gujarat, a development man with no nonsense decisive attitude with no pandering to corruption or incompetence.
If nothing else, we will see new and fresh ideas churning out of NaMo govt. It will be unlike any govt that Delhi sultanate has seen and will be a true Indic govt.

kapilrdave · Post by **kapilrdave** » 13 Mar 2014 16:19

Strangely, the word Vajpayee is used to abuse hindu netas. It was Vajpayee who did Pokhran II. It was Vajpayee who saved Kargil and gave a strong reply to the attack on parliament. Can anyone imagine MMS doing op parakram? His tries for peace with bakis was just an initiative from him (advised by dhimmies) with genuine intentions. At worst he can be blamed for being naive and clueless about pakiness (I myself didn't support it at that time even though being among yuppi crowd). Congis extending that initiative to the level of impotence can't be blamed on ABV.

How many here thinks NM is naive and clueless? Having observed NM for years I find it amusing when people advise him to be 'cautious' for this and that. In due time we will discover how shrewd and ruthless politician NM is. But he is just the kind of man we need at helm at the moment given the mess we are in. Guuju fellows on this forum will know what I mean.

@Rahul Mehta: As you might also agree, NM is the kind of bala who would chew even MNCs in breakfast and not even burp. The PM's chair of world's largest democracy has got some power. It is a different matter that it has been occupied by micky mouses all this while.

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 13 Mar 2014 16:34

^^ Thank you Kapilji

My BP goes up whenever I see Modi == Vajapyee == MMS == Sonia

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 13 Mar 2014 16:36

I prefer a Modi who tells Hindus & Muslims that I will provide equal opportunities for all of you. Go work hard and make your mother proud. Here are the opportunities not Modi who tells I will give you 5% reservation in OBC quota.

That's the Modi I have seen in Gujarat over last 10+ years.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 13 Mar 2014 16:37

Deleted. Apols...

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 13 Mar 2014 16:39

vivek.rao wrote:I prefer a Modi who tells Hindus & Muslims that I will provide equal opportunities for all of you. Go work hard and make your mother proud. Here are the opportunities not Modi who tells I will give you 5% reservation in OBC quota.

That's the Modi I have seen in Gujarat over last 10+ years.

And that is the Modi you will get. Rest is Sama Dama Danda and Bheda. So no need to worry about politicking.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 13 Mar 2014 16:40

This is an old receipt. the date is for July. Considering what happned the last time they wontdo this again.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 13 Mar 2014 17:40

vivek.rao wrote:{quote="chandturakhia"}{quote="Hari Seldon"}Modi finds unlikely fans in J&K’s PDP, separatists (TOI)

>>Aah, so the implicit pressure to conform to ABV-esque policies continues, eh?{/quote}

My Pain Point : Gujarat will Loose Modi as CM and India will Get Vajpayee as PM

Irony is Gujarat wants next dimension of Modi and he is running away. Next re-structing in GUJARATI CULTURE TO take it next level .e.g. Isolate from Western Banking mafia.

And Another Irony is India is Yeaning for Next Vajpayee .... That's the best they want to WISH for :p

Both hopefully will get what-they-yean-for {/quote}

Your pain point is being clueless

Some anti-Indian rabid Islamist hopes Modi will make some concession on Kashmir (meaning handing it over to Pakis. That is the only settlement these murderous terrorists want).

You have such an immense faith in those scums. The scum can wish for any thing he wants.

Immediately label Modi as Vajpayee and how Modi is sold to Islamic terrorist MAFIa network of Pakis.

Get some grip and stop being clueless.

The man fought all the way to SC/Media/RW/LW against special scholarships for minorities.

Have some faith in him or go vote for MAFIA.

Why is it that jehadis always think that a weak Hindu leader will not hand over cashmere but a strong Hindu leader will, without hesitation, hand over cashmere to them in the blink of an eye??

member_28173 · Post by **member_28173** » 13 Mar 2014 17:46

>>>Strangely, the word Vajpayee is used to abuse hindu netas

NOTE Vajpayee came after PVN ( Still OK ) and Third front.. His job was do what is possible. He knew he had to do about Ram Jambabhomi stuff. But atleast in One state he delivered Swadeshi a bit.. Golden Quadrilateral Highways.

I remember the golden lines of Vajpayee ... He was asked what he do in 5 years. He said He will do what Sher-Shah Suri did in 5 years.
He did not say he will do Hemu...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sher_Shah_Suri. I am in owe with the guy. And Vajpayee delivered what he promised.

Same way Expect MODI to do something concreate and NOT everything. there is mess to be cleaned up.

NOTE : In Gujarat He came after Keshu bhai , Waghela. Economy was bad but INSTITUTIONS were OK. That's the difference

member_28173 · Post by **member_28173** » 13 Mar 2014 17:53

>>Aah, so the implicit pressure to conform to ABV-esque policies continues, eh?[/quote][/quote]

My Pain Point : Gujarat will Loose Modi as CM and India will Get Vajpayee as PM

>>Your pain point is being clueless

May be. But Gujarat CAN BE STILL taken to greater heights. THERE IS work to be done. Modi can take some decisions which others cannot take..... basically Real Transformation work where you do not even worry of cry babies of your constituency can be done.

e.g. RSS guys were against some road side temples being demolished. Modi could do it without worrying about blow back.

If he had continued as CM for 5 more years ; I would be very happy if-he-screwed-GUJJU the right way. Basically we have lot deviated from what is expected from us in the "Indian Empire"

He did screw Rich Farmer-Patels which will helped us in long way.

We Gujju , Gujarat Should be Economic Insurance to INDIA.

member_28173 · Post by **member_28173** » 13 Mar 2014 17:59

Most Interesting fact of Vajpayee ::

Indian Vajpayee Fired Gujarat Vajpayee ( Kesu bhai ) for loosing by-polls.......

There should be angle to this story. Never understood what happened. Modi becoming CM was itself not understood by many simple guys like me. At that time He was DELHI Guy parachuted to Gujarat. Many did not take lightly

member_28173 · Post by **member_28173** » 13 Mar 2014 18:05

chandturakhia wrote:>>Aah, so the implicit pressure to conform to ABV-esque policies continues, eh?

[/quote]

My Pain Point : Gujarat will Loose Modi as CM and India will Get Vajpayee as PM

>>Your pain point is being clueless

May be. But Gujarat CAN BE STILL taken to greater heights. THERE IS work to be done. Modi can take some decisions which others cannot take..... basically Real Transformation work where you do not even worry of cry babies of your constituency can be done.

e.g. RSS guys were against some road side temples being demolished. Modi could do it without worrying about blow back.

If he had continued as CM for 5 more years ; I would be very happy if-he-screwed-GUJJU the right way. Basically we have lot deviated from what is expected from us in the "Indian Empire"

He did screw Rich Farmer-Patels which will helped us in long way.

We Gujju , Gujarat Should be Economic Insurance to INDIA.[/quote]

NOW THE REAL PAIN ::: Whenever Gujarat Leader Settled and Delivers -- same 5-10 years ; he is dismantled by DELHI. Happens everywhere. But In Gujarat we can Strong leader to clean system bit more... Expect Gujarat to be INSURANCE to INDIA. Please don't dismantle every 10 years. I was Ok from BUSINESS ANGLE with Solanki , Chimanbhai, Waghela , KesuBhai and NaMO. Last 3 were Ok somewhat from Dharmic angle too.

Changing Gujarat is easy ; Changing Gujarati is Not ( whenever somebody's turn comes ; he is dismantled by delhi )

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 13 Mar 2014 18:12

^^ Don't worry chandturakhia bhai ..

Modi as PM is good for India and good for Gujarat too. He has done whatever he could but now he needs to be at center to make whole set of changes as PM that he can't do as CM. Will help Indian states and Gujarat

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 13 Mar 2014 18:15

chandturakhia wrote:Most Interesting fact of Vajpayee ::

Indian Vajpayee Fired Gujarat Vajpayee ( Kesu bhai ) for loosing by-polls.......

There should be angle to this story. Never understood what happened. Modi becoming CM was itself not understood by many simple guys like me. At that time He was DELHI Guy parachuted to Gujarat. Many did not take lightly

And we are all grateful for Indian Vajpayee to bring in someone like Modi. Future states/generations will want more Modis in future and count me when I say "They will get i more and more of them. Development focussed, no-nonsense non-appeasing type"

Atri · Post by **Atri** » 13 Mar 2014 18:16

since when did this separatist streak start to emerge in GJ? am I the only one to feel this? GJ is far from being on the verge of being independent from western banking network. It is far from it. It will require a major and sudden global restructuring to bring about what you are trying. Else it will happen gradually. We lost the ownership of capital after 500 years of continuous struggle in 1857. We will regain that share after at least 100 years post 1990 (when capital actually began returning to India).

kapilrdave · Post by **kapilrdave** » 13 Mar 2014 19:18

separatist streak in GJ? Not in the wildest of imagination. These dhokla eating pot bellied softy gujjus can't do anything but bijness. Nothing krantikari about them.