Malaysian Airlines Flight MH-370 goes missing

member_28440 · Post by **member_28440** » 14 Mar 2014 01:00

Rogue jet not missing plane, Malaysian diplomat assures families

The Malaysian ambassador to China has received confirmation from the Malaysian military that it detected a rogue jet just an hour after flight MH370 vanished - but denied rumours it was shot down.

The military confirmed spotting the unidentified aircraft on its radar about an hour and 20 minutes after MH370's signal went cold on Saturday, the ambassador said.

ManuJ · Post by **ManuJ** » 14 Mar 2014 01:04

Somebody should ask the Malaysians that if they didn't shoot down the rogue jet, what action did they take? And how did they ascertain that the rogue jet was not the airliner?

ManuJ · Post by **ManuJ** » 14 Mar 2014 01:10

ramana wrote:I now think it was heading towards DG and ran out of fuel and ditched into the ocean.

If the plane was in the hands of an accomplished pilot, there's no reason why the plane may have not changed directions multiple times to avoid radars and populated areas.
So it may have initially gone SW to the Indian Ocean, and once there, may have changed directions to SE...It might be sitting on a desolate Australian WWII airfield for all we know.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 14 Mar 2014 01:11

For those advocating that the plane was steered west to hit some target, why would they take such trouble diverting a flight going to Beijing ? Why not hijack one of the several Malaysia planes flying to Europe Middle East or Africa ?

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 14 Mar 2014 01:14

ramana wrote:However those pings wont tell a/c position right?

If the pings were received at three places, the three times together can tell the location (may be very roughly but still it would not be as bad as 2000 m circle). WAG.

saip · Post by **saip** » 14 Mar 2014 01:14

ramana wrote:No Comment!

Malaysian Nurses asked to explain spoof of bomoh

Here is the video of the Witch doctor. The Malaysian PM is crazier than I thought.

TheWitchery

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 14 Mar 2014 01:17

The Malaysian Ambassador to PRC did not actually say that the jet detected by the military was NOT the airliner. He just said, per the article:

The ambassador was quoted as saying the military official had said the rogue aircraft was not deemed a threat, otherwise it would have notified its response teams.

So it was not a threat, meaning it was not a small fighter/bizjet, but looked like a lumbering cargo or passenger plane.

Plus it was heading away from Malaysia so no threat. This is how the nbd dogs decide whether I am a threat: I may approach the periphery of their empire, but I keep moving along it and eventually I am heading away from them.

Man! The reporting around the world has become so lousy these days!

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 14 Mar 2014 01:17

Suraj wrote:For those advocating that the plane was steered west to hit some target, why would they take such trouble diverting a flight going to Beijing ? Why not hijack one of the several Malaysia planes flying to Europe Middle East or Africa ?

If it is an inside job, may be this is the flight they came up with for all things to work out.

member_28440 · Post by **member_28440** » 14 Mar 2014 01:19

Malaysian airliner may have been commandeered and taken to secret Coco Island base — New info reveals plane flew 4-hours after transponder was deactivated

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 14 Mar 2014 01:20

Makes it likely that it had some critical cargo?
Hey, Coco Island is PRC, right? Why not wait until flight landed in Beijing?

Actually I never thought of that: Was the plane carrying any Uighur Splittists against their will, to the Gobi Valley Paradise and Lifetime Retirement Center?

member_28440 · Post by **member_28440** » 14 Mar 2014 01:24

Just one Uighur, artist

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 14 Mar 2014 02:37

matrimc wrote:If the pings were received at three places, the three times together can tell the location (may be very roughly but still it would not be as bad as 2000 m circle). WAG.

Matrimc, the pings were received by satellite not ground based receivers. Very unlikely for 3 birds to pick up. Even if they did it could have come from anywhere in the Hemisphere. Maybe with time delay you can go back and track but for that clocks have to be synchronized to nano seconds. This is problem enough when trying with purpose designed and synchronized clock satellites such as the GPS. It don't think this will prove feasible.

saip · Post by **saip** » 14 Mar 2014 03:03

The CNN map of new search area is showing south of tip of India to all the way to Australia. Then it seems to indicate that US has a way of knowing the location of where the pings originated from. Otherwise no explanation why they want to search 100s of miles south of the last known position.

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 14 Mar 2014 03:18

Theo_Fidel wrote:
matrimc wrote:If the pings were received at three places, the three times together can tell the location (may be very roughly but still it would not be as bad as 2000 m circle). WAG.
Matrimc, the pings were received by satellite not ground based receivers. Very unlikely for 3 birds to pick up. Even if they did it could have come from anywhere in the Hemisphere. Maybe with time delay you can go back and track but for that clocks have to be synchronized to nano seconds. This is problem enough when trying with purpose designed and synchronized clock satellites such as the GPS. It don't think this will prove feasible.

Triangulation or trilateration are little use now. They are what is being used to expand the search area. When expanding thge search area into 1000,000s sq miles, accuracy is not a big deal.

There was talk of "overweight" plane and fire-prone cargo early on. Masnifests have not surfaced.

2C130s (the Safire ones?) + P8i ++

Diwar Sadak Bahikhata Bharat ( Patrika is magazine) has an illustration of the navy size group wasting fuel now. If nothing else an anti piracy treaty should come off this. Everyone will know everyone elses' in-laws by now.

Bigger than any "exercises" ever conducted + 24/7 for a week+, better than any past SAR/Pasex.
---
"Wont find it" -- 1
"Mangolia" -- 0

member_28502 · Post by **member_28502** » 14 Mar 2014 03:36

If a plane could land on Hudson
why cant it land on Rock Hudson near the sea of Almaty or Alma Atta?

Shalav · Post by **Shalav** » 14 Mar 2014 03:44

Facetious analogy! The Hudson river "landing" was a demonstration of extraordinary skill and flown by a commander with 30 years of experience and 10+ years on the type IIRC. Situations are not similar.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 14 Mar 2014 03:58

1. If simple accident, debris should have been found by now.

2. If complicated accident - decompression, disoriented crew tries to return, sets autopilot, die or become unconscious and plane flies in a straight line till fuel runs out - then debris should be found, it was just that people were looking in the wrong place.

3. If suicidal pilot or some such, I would think the pilot would be hard pressed to submerge the plane without break up and debris.

4. If air-jacking - maybe the hijacking went awry, plane crashed, debris should be found, just that people were looking in the wrong place.

5. If air-jacking, landed safely somewhere, deplaned and maybe massacred all passengers, refueled plane and continued well out of even the extended search area, that would explain why nothing to find.

But - if air-jacking by a non-loner (i.e., by someone part of a larger gang) intelligence ought to have picked up some chatter. If a highly disciplined and savvy gang, a failure of the air-jacking and loss of plane would be more likely to generate interceptable messages than perhaps a success.

Motive - what can one do with a Boeing 777-200?

If a regularly scheduled commercial flight with airplane X takes off from A going to B, with transponder codes, etc., set, how would you substitute your plane Y that you got from airjacking, and arrive close to B with no one suspecting anything until it is too late to do anything? Is it even feasible?

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 14 Mar 2014 04:05

Malaysian airliner may have been commandeered and taken to secret Coco Island base — New info reveals plane flew 4-hours after transponder was deactivated

"Intellihub" is straight copying stuff posted here. Well, so is WSJ report, and the NSC whatever cited there. Imitation is best form of flattery, of course.

But now that they are all imitating, I am changing the GUESS predictor-corrector. I think the flight crashed very soon after it went off radar. Either in Vietnam jungle like TSJ says, or on one of those islands right off the Malaysian coast. Look at the map near Terengannu. Do you think these Einsteins have really searched the cliffs and ravines there? Or maybe on the main Malay peninsula, short of Kuala Lumpur aircraft.
Sadly this is the all-too-frequent outcome of most desperate attempts to get back to the airport after catastrophic structural disintegration, which is the most likely cause of sudden loss of communications.
Some kid will come out of the jungle carrying a piece that proves the crash without any doubt. Maybe tomorrow, maybe a month from now.

They shouldn't raise the families' hopes with anything else. Incidentally, that is exactly what the Malaysian authorities have been desperately trying to convey - that there is no cause for hope.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 14 Mar 2014 04:06

Theo_Fidel wrote: Matrimc, the pings were received by satellite not ground based receivers. Very unlikely for 3 birds to pick up. Even if they did it could have come from anywhere in the Hemisphere. Maybe with time delay you can go back and track but for that clocks have to be synchronized to nano seconds. This is problem enough when trying with purpose designed and synchronized clock satellites such as the GPS. It don't think this will prove feasible.

At what altitude are these satellites? Even a geosynchronous satellite sees only 1/3rd of the earth or so.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 14 Mar 2014 04:16

Iridium satellites are in low earth orbit, at ~780km . There are 66 of them.
Globalstar is also in LEO, and has 44 sats.
Thuraya sats are in geosynchronous orbit, i.e. 36000km. There are two of them.
Inmarsat sats are in GEO as well, and has 11 satellites.

Boeing 777s have two satcom antennas - high and low gain. Some only have low gain. MH370 was one of the latter.

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 14 Mar 2014 04:18

UlanBatori wrote:
Malaysian airliner may have been commandeered and taken to secret Coco Island base — New info reveals plane flew 4-hours after transponder was deactivated
"Intellihub" is straight copying stuff posted here. Well, so is WSJ report, and the NSC whatever cited there. Imitation is best form of flattery, of course.
But now that they are all imitating, I am changing the GUESS predictor-corrector. I think the flight crashed very soon after it went off radar. Either in Vietnam jungle like TSJ says, or on one of those islands right off the Malaysian coast. Look at the map near Terengannu. Do you think these Einsteins have really searched the cliffs and ravines there? Or maybe on the main Malay peninsula, short of Kuala Lumpur aircraft.
Sadly this is the all-too-frequent outcome of most desperate attempts to get back to the airport after catastrophic structural disintegration, which is the most likely cause of sudden loss of communications.
Some kid will come out of the jungle carrying a piece that proves the crash without any doubt. Maybe tomorrow, maybe a month from now.

They shouldn't raise the families' hopes with anything else. Incidentally, that is exactly what the Malaysian authorities have been desperately trying to convey - that there is no cause for hope.

No fair!!! Mangolian principled position is "Grand conspiracy". No changing it in the middle of the match.
Accident -- 1, Mangolia - 0. Half time.

On the other hand, sample mmeddia from C130 and P8i, some spare pirates here or there, an unrelated rescue, records for SAR sorties in distance/time, signatures of all sort of vehicles, rukmani interfaces for vietnsm, even malaysia, an invitation to malaysian grand shaman to visit and predict the election. I mean so much potential!! And all we read is mangolian theories adopted by WSJ.

It has taken years for old crashes in the past. In the water == Earhart. On land == by accident.

Assets -- when a certain space telescope was to be retired and astrophysicists around the world were shaking in their boots multiple MORE powerful devices magically appeared in the sky and were given to them as they were "SPARE" and "old technology". Who knows what surrounds us?

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 14 Mar 2014 04:20

has arihant gone on see trial and this is a good excuse by everyone to spy on it. Matlab besharmi ki had, plane lost contact somewhere else lekin khojenge Indian ocean me?

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 14 Mar 2014 04:35

Shreeman wrote: It has taken years for old crashes in the past. In the water == Earhart. On land == by accident.

Earhart's plane (Lockheed Electra 10-E) (empty) was about 7,200 lb, Boeing's 777 is some 140,000 lb (empty). This is like 20 of Earhart's planes going down leaving no trace.

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 14 Mar 2014 04:42

For those who think there should be a debris field one should remember the lessons of Valujet 592, crashed nose down into the Florida everglades. Admittedly a smaller DC-9 craft with 110 passengers.

This was the entire debris field. Yes really. All the wreckage is in this picture. None of it recovered at this point. You can see the helicopter for scale.

TSJ has a point about Vietnam.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 14 Mar 2014 04:44

Strategic implications: "A nervous region eyes robust Chinese response to missing Malaysia plane"
http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malay ... ysia-plane

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 14 Mar 2014 04:59

Valujet 592: http://www.avweb.com/news/safety/183026 ... directed=1

The last recorded FDR data showed the airplane at 7,200 feet MSL, at a speed of 260 KIAS

http://youtu.be/1RM8OPCs_Bo

Smaller, lower, slower, fell into a swamp, with thick mud just under the surface of the water, and rock beneath the thick mud. Still, yes, debris field problem is there.

PS:

WRECKAGE AND IMPACT INFORMATION: The primary impact area was identified by a crater in the mud and sawgrass. The crater was about 130 feet long and 40 feet wide.

I would imagine that if the Malaysian Boeing crashed into the Vietnam jungle, a similar "crater" would be detectable from the air or by satellite photograph.

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 14 Mar 2014 05:02

A_Gupta wrote:
Shreeman wrote: It has taken years for old crashes in the past. In the water == Earhart. On land == by accident.
Earhart's plane (Lockheed Electra 10-E) (empty) was about 7,200 lb, Boeing's 777 is some 140,000 lb (empty). This is like 20 of Earhart's planes going down leaving no trace.

Yes, and their speed matters. Chances were the Electra landed one piece, and only due to lack of fuel (under control). Here chances of it being in one piece even if attempted landing == 0. Recall the landing/burning of the Asiana/777. If it crashed sooner/burned to bits, if it crashed later, sunk by now.

We may lose to technology, but Team "Accident -- No findee anythingee" has a distinct lead compared to the rest of the field. The sea is VAST, this is no florida where an elderly jewish person will run into it sooner or later, and not static like a lake of mud. Comparisons are invalid.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 14 Mar 2014 05:17

http://abcnews.go.com/International/mal ... ePage=true

Two U.S. officials tell ABC News the U.S. believes that the shutdown of two communication systems happened separately on Malaysia Airlines Flight 370. One source said this indicates the plane did not come out of the sky because of a catastrophic failure.

The data reporting system, they believe, was shut down at 1:07 a.m. The transponder -- which transmits location and altitude -- shut down at 1:21 a.m.

This indicates it may well have been a deliberate act, ABC News aviation consultant John Nance said.

U.S. investigators told ABC News that the two modes of communication were "systematically shut down."

That means the U.S. team "is convinced that there was manual intervention," a source said, which means it was likely not an accident or catastrophic malfunction that took the plane out of the sky.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 14 Mar 2014 05:25

I am just

that NSC, NSA, WHOTUS, WSJ, Intellihub, all become non-paying customers of UB CTs Inc out of sheer 404ness, and needlessly and cruelly giving false hopes to grieving relatives. I pray that the ppl are rescued in good health, but if not, that they had a very swift and merciful exit. This is now a far more terrible situation. What do the relatives do?

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 14 Mar 2014 06:08

A_Gupta wrote:quote]I would imagine that if the Malaysian Boeing crashed into the Vietnam jungle, a similar "crater" would be detectable from the air or by satellite photograph.

The question is how many such craters there are in such areas.

Here is view of the Valujet crater couple of days later. Only the bodies have been recovered. The entire aircraft is still in place.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 14 Mar 2014 06:22

Waste of so many assets. Just get hold of top ISI Ullus. shower them with Water boarding kind of gifts 24/1 and soon the world will know about the fate of aircraft and its passengers. When Saudi start deporting the Islamist terrorists then it should be understood, something big like this was in offing and they wanted 72 degree of separation between Them and Them . .

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 14 Mar 2014 06:30

UlanBatori wrote:I am just that NSC, NSA, WHOTUS, WSJ, Intellihub, all become non-paying customers of UB CTs Inc out of sheer 404ness, and needlessly and cruelly giving false hopes to grieving relatives. I pray that the ppl are rescued in good health, but if not, that they had a very swift and merciful exit. This is now a far more terrible situation. What do the relatives do?

Look, seriously, *some* people died. Take the relatives to last known position and do a puja. Pay restitution and send them home. No different than POW/MIA. This is a recovery mission. If you find something later, it will bring closure. Do your work quietly, not in the limelight. Either way, if you knew soneone in the tragedy, this is worse torture.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 14 Mar 2014 06:43

er does Vietnam have any jungles left? I thought they were all wiped out by Agent Orange so that them slanteyes could be eliminated. Chemical weapons are bad in the hands of Saddam and Syrians

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 14 Mar 2014 07:12

From a comment on a blog:
http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semp ... l#comments

In one of my past lives I was a captain on the Boeing 777, it is a superb flying machine. It has multiple built in redundancies in all areas including air to ground communications.

Four options on what has happened:

!. Some type of criminal activity in the cockpit has caused the aircraft to disappear. In my opinion the least likely scenario.

2. A decompression event incapacitated the crew ( 30 seconds of useful consciousness at that altitude ). They could have initiated an autopilot directed change of course and descent before they passed out. The aircraft could have descended to the preset new altitude leveled off, and preceded to fly off on the new heading for a couple of thousand miles. Not likely but certainly possible.

3.A near instantaneous catastrophic failure of the aircraft structure, This particular aircraft had some serious wing damage repaired a few years back. If this happened, there should have been a large debris field somewhere along the intended flight path, and by now I would have thought some of the sophisticated military equipment searching would have found the aircraft remains. This is the most likely event.

4.Some type of uncontrolled fire event causing a fuel tank to explode. My personal rule of thumb on uncontrolled aircraft fires was for a big airplane you have a max of 15 minutes to put in on the ground or in the water or you die for sure. This scenario doesn't fit with the lack of communications so also isn't likely.

The same person says:

The 777 can be easily landed and brought to a full stop in 5,000 feet. The United and American guys do it on runway 22 right in ORD all the time.
It is one hell of a fine machine.

ORD is Chicago O'Hare airport I presume.

The owner of the blog writes:

"And now... Someone in the Pentagon is telling CNN that the Malaysians actually say that ACARS was working and that they have data showing flight to the west. This is the reason giving for moving USN efforts in that direction. As an old spook I suspect that this is a cover for satellite sensor readouts that have finally yielded results from archived data from a days back... a few days ago. It is common practice to disguise the source of such data.

merlin · Post by **merlin** » 14 Mar 2014 07:30

http://mashable.com/2014/03/13/what-hap ... light-370/

Anurag · Post by **Anurag** » 14 Mar 2014 07:32

So let's see who finds it first! IN up to it?

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 14 Mar 2014 07:48

Anurag wrote:So let's see who finds it first! IN up to it?

I hope not. That means that it will be in Indian waters and a hundred Amriki and Chini ships will come in under the pretext of salvaging the remains.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 14 Mar 2014 07:57

merlin: The trouble with the ghost plane flying with no signs of life for 2000 miles, is this:
Does a modern autopilot keep a plane at 29500 feet with a decompressed cockpit? I can't understand the private plane crash that they cite: was it single-pilot? If the cockpit was suddenly depressurized, say due to something hitting the windshield, won't drag spike up? I think the speed would drop, so would the plane, to a lower altitude. With 239 people on board, are there NO options to send a distress signal? No one with satphones? No way to break into cockpit (or was the wind blowing full blast into the cabin?) Cabin crew not trained to rig anything to send emergency signals? I just have to reject this, because my mind refuses to accept that horrifying 4-hour journey for the passengers and cabin crew, with no way of even letting anyone know.

And... why did it run out of fuel in 4 hours? The first reports said they had fuel for 7.5 hours. Autopilot ramped up the engine thrust, increasing fuel consumption?

No. Either (a) it crashed right away (I mean within minutes, maybe after turning back) or (b) it did not crash, it was under human control. I was leaning towards (b) but now I think (a) is more plausible, given that ALL the reports from various experts are turning out to be garbage.

Latest is the American Destroyer Kidd being asked to move west. Purported reason is that spy-sat data has been processed, NSA has finished retrieving the recordings made in the on-board pakistans. WHAT did they see on the spy-sat data I wonder: "went down" is all they are saying, not whether a fire was observed, debris or what.

See: all the reported "pointers" have other explanations, and in all cases, the reporter's bias could have driven wrong conclusions:

1. cellphones ringing: Chinese cellphone company apparently charges for calls regardless of whether they are picked up, so ringtone is generated by company, not destination phone.
2. rogue a/c observed by Malaysian military radar: something else, maybe a drug plane, deemed uninterested to Malaysian military.
3. Chinese satellite photos: Photoshop.
4. Oil rig observer: transient fire. Saw shooting star low on horizon.
5. Mumbled transmission: airplane disintegrating, maybe depressurized, comm wiring damaged. (co/) pilot THOUGHT he had made a MayDay transmission, other pilot not familiar with accent, did not understand.
6. ACARS after 4 hours: Confused with engines on another plane. Maybe there was an engine swap with some other plane. Operator desperately looking for some indication, rushed to report finding without double-checking.
7. US satellite(s) heard "pinging": Another Malaysian airlines flight, maybe heading to Chennai.
8. US satellites saw something: Another aircraft or something. Unless they find a debris field by tomorrow.

Anurag · Post by **Anurag** » 14 Mar 2014 08:01

shiv wrote:
Anurag wrote:So let's see who finds it first! IN up to it?
I hope not. That means that it will be in Indian waters and a hundred Amriki and Chini ships will come in under the pretext of salvaging the remains.

I guess what does 'Indian Waters' mean? It can be further south neared to DGish area too. After all we're talking about the IO region.

Victor · Post by **Victor** » 14 Mar 2014 08:01

Can't we rule out the plane flying anywhere within A&N radar range appx 50 miles off the islands without being detected? That would cover and pretty much rule out everything West of a line from Indonesia's Banda Aceh in the South to Coco Island in the North. That is unless we have no/patchy land, aircraft or ship based radar cover which would be quite unlikely?