Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 14 Mar 2014 19:51

muraliravi wrote: , I think Putal Devi is a BC. So if the candidate from Araria is a FC or BC, BJP has still allotted approx 50% to FC's.

Putul Devi is not BC. And her seat is more or less confirmed. Very strong Candidate. Wife of Digvijay Singh(late) who is still highly respect in the region, known as Gidhaur maharaja

Malayappan · Post by **Malayappan** » 14 Mar 2014 19:52

Fanne,

For Patna Saheb, if you are looking at a Kayasth, why not RSP? Last time too it was indicated, but Shotgun's (tantrums?) got the ticket.

Comer · Post by **Comer** » 14 Mar 2014 19:54

nageshks wrote:
RajeshA wrote: Vibhishan would now do a Yeddyurappa! Berry Berry Gudd!
LOL!!! Yes, RajeshA-ji. Azhagiri would certainly do a Vibhishan. Only problem is that both this version of Ram and Vibhishan are much weaker. Also, seats where Azhagiri is strong (Madurai, Thirunelveli, etc) have been given to Drunkard's party (personally, I think it is criminal that BJP is giving Thirunelveli, Madurai, Salem, and Tiruchirapally to Drunkard). Whatever help Azhagiri can bring in in TN is more likely to accrue to DMDK than BJP. Does anyone know if Azhagiri is strong in Kanyakumari, Ramanathapuram, and/or Sivaganga?

To put my conspiracy hat, JJ didn't pursue the cases against Alagiri!
I was of the opinion that DMDK is stronger in N. TN and that's what angered PMK. I think Sivaganga(and Ramnad) used to be with Azhagiri supporter(guy called Ritesh) but he cross overed to Stalin in the battle of brothers. I doubt Kanyakumari comes under Azhagiri's sphere of influence.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 14 Mar 2014 19:59

fanne wrote:Both Jaiswals are BC. Only 1 Brahmin, they have something like 6-9% population, 1 more in Lalmuni Chaubey would have been good. Cold maths, Shahnawaj is a good poster boy but Lal Muni candidature makes difference in 5-7 seats!!
I do not see another Lala (another FC, 2-3% votes), going by catse, Shatru should get it then.

Yah, they still have 5 more seats. They will compensate with those. Why not move shahnawaz to some other seat (even if he loses) and give ashwini chaubey bhagalpur

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 14 Mar 2014 20:10

muraliravi wrote:
fanne wrote:Both Jaiswals are BC. Only 1 Brahmin, they have something like 6-9% population, 1 more in Lalmuni Chaubey would have been good. Cold maths, Shahnawaj is a good poster boy but Lal Muni candidature makes difference in 5-7 seats!!
I do not see another Lala (another FC, 2-3% votes), going by catse, Shatru should get it then.
Yah, they still have 5 more seats. They will compensate with those. Why not move shahnawaz to some other seat (even if he loses) and give ashwini chaubey bhagalpur

My guess-Jhanjharpur will have a Brahmin candidate, since Madhubani has a Yadav (Hukum Deo Narayan Yadav). Yadavs and Brahmins decide the fate of candidates in Madhubani-Jhanjharpur region, so the two castes will be accommodated in the two seats. And moving Shahnawaz elsewhere would be a good idea. Bringing in Ashwani Kumar Chaubey in Bhagalpur would be a great idea. Bhagalpur used to be held by Prabhash Chandra Tiwari of BJP, and has the reputation of being a Brahmin seat.

Is it just me or others also observing this trend in BJP. Only showpiece leaders (where exactly can Shahnawaz win on his own?) who all want safe seats. Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi, Shahnawaz Hussain used to fight from Rampur and Kishanganj respectively. What is the logic of bringing in Shahnawaz Hussain to Bhagalpur?

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 14 Mar 2014 20:19

nageshks wrote: My guess-Jhanjharpur will have a Brahmin candidate, since Madhubani has a Yadav (Hukum Deo Narayan Yadav). Yadavs and Brahmins decide the fate of candidates in Madhubani-Jhanjharpur region, so the two castes will be accommodated in the two seats. And moving Shahnawaz elsewhere would be a good idea. Bringing in Ashwani Kumar Chaubey in Bhagalpur would be a great idea. Bhagalpur used to be held by Prabhash Chandra Tiwari of BJP, and has the reputation of being a Brahmin seat.

Is it just me or others also observing this trend in BJP. Only showpiece leaders (where exactly can Shahnawaz win on his own?) who all want safe seats. Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi, Shahnawaz Hussain used to fight from Rampur and Kishanganj respectively. What is the logic of bringing in Shahnawaz Hussain to Bhagalpur?

Nagesh ji, this trend is there in all parties. Sushma for vidisha also is the same case. In congress also u find that situation. BJP cant do much about this. It is too late to send Shahnawaz elsewhere.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 14 Mar 2014 20:27

Undie TV survey

Very surprised that M's are voting between SP and Cong and BSP is nowhere in the picture.

Cong+rld, i was expecting close to 10, but well heck 12 maybe possible.

This trend is being increasingly seen, united spectrum of hindu votes, they show UC's voting at 65% to the BJP. BC's will be similar or maybe at 50% becos of the yadav factor. M's and Dalits are about 41% of the pop. BJP doing very well among the BC's and FC's wholesomely.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 14 Mar 2014 20:34

Punjab, as I had posted a while back, AAP cuts NDA vote, Congress alliance with Manpreet helping them.

Assam, NDTV is in line with CSDS which predicted a congress sweep. But i dunno where they got the cong+audf from??

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 14 Mar 2014 20:57

muraliravi wrote: Assam, NDTV is in line with CSDS which predicted a congress sweep. But i dunno where they got the cong+audf from??

Arithmetic wrong in Assam. If Cong+BJP+AUDF+AGP=67% votes, where are the remaining 33% votes going? Ridiculously silly, IMO.

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 14 Mar 2014 21:10

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 14 Mar 2014 21:11

I got it.

AP: 15 to YSR, 9 to TDP, 11 to TRS, 1 to MIM, 5 to INC and 2 to BJP.

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 14 Mar 2014 21:13

Muppalla wrote:How many Jagan is getting per NDTV? 30? 35? 40?

15, TDP (9)

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 14 Mar 2014 21:13

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 14 Mar 2014 21:14

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 14 Mar 2014 21:37

If NDTV poll is true, BJP should just leave SA to TDP and align with TRS in TG. BJP is getting just 3% in SA vs 15 % in TG.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 14 Mar 2014 21:47

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 14 Mar 2014 21:50

gandharva wrote:

Instead of just opposing she should register her protest and not contest the elections like Karna in Mahabharat.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 14 Mar 2014 21:50

iF SHE FEELS SO STRONGLY ABOUT IT, WHY DOES NOT SHE RESIGN FROM bjp?

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 14 Mar 2014 21:51

ramana wrote: Instead of just opposing she should register her protest and not contest the elections like Karna in Mahabharat.

Ehh - no, saar. She should give up her Vidisha ticket, fight as an independent in Bellary, win and show us how it is done. Or maybe Telangana will accommodate Chinnamma through the goodness of its heart.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 14 Mar 2014 23:17

gandharva wrote:3rd List of Candidates for Lok Sabha Election 2014

http://www.bjp.org/media-resources/pres ... ction-2014

Published on Mar 14, 2014
LS polls: Face-off between Babulal Marandi and Shibu Soren: IANS

Two former chief ministers of Jharkhand Babulal Marandi and Shibu Soren will face each other in Dumka parliamentary constituency in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls.

Marandi, a former BJP leader, was the first chief minister of Jharkhand after the state was carved out from Bihar in 2000.

He formed his own party Jharkhand Vikas Morcha-Prajatantrik (JVMP) in 2006.

Marandi is currently MP from Koderma Lok Sabha constituency. He defeated Soren in 1996, 1998 and 1999 Lok Sabha polls.

Although Marandi earlier announced he would not fight the Lok Sabha polls, his party Friday said he would contest from Dumka.

"This is a party decision and I will go with it," Marandi told media.

Former chief minister Shibu Soren is MP from Dumka since 2001.

Jharkhand Mukti Morcha has announced the name of Soren from Dumka.

Meanwhile, the BJP has fielded a young candidate Sunil Soren from the constituency.

Going by the names of JMM chief and BJP candidate, it seems they are from the same "tribe". I would assume NaMo wanted to help Marandi out here, by putting up a BJP candidate who would cut into the tribal-votebank for Shibu Soren.

It's unclear whether Sunil Soren can use the NaMo wave to win himself, but if he can't he would be containing Shibu Soren's chances, so advantage Babulal Marandi.

jagga · Post by **jagga** » 14 Mar 2014 23:19

Yog Guru Baba Ramdev is Not happy WIth BJP

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 14 Mar 2014 23:36

Ok, so lets see if my sources are right. BJP will release 30 names for UP tomorrow

1. Varanasi - Namo
2. Kanpur - MMJ
3. Lucknow - RNS
4. Etah - Kalyan Singh
5. Shrawasti - Kalraj Mishra
6. Ghaziabad - Gen VK Singh
7. Amroha - Surendra Nagar
8. Rae Bareily - Ajay Agarwal
9. Fatehpur - Sadhvi Niranjana
10. Mohanlalganj - Kaushal Kishore
11. Noida (Gautam Buddh Nagar) - Mahesh Sharma
12. Baghpat - Satyapal Singh
13. Pratapgarh - Moti Singh
14. Bhadohi - Ramrati
15. Allahabad - Kesrinath Tripati
16. Gonda - Kirtivardhan Singh
17. Sultanpur - Varun Gandhi
18. Pilibhit - Maneka Gandhi
19. Jhansi - Uma Bharti
20. Meerut - Rajendra Agarwal
21. Azamgarh - Ramakant Yadav
22. Gorakhpur - Yogi Adityanath
23. Sant Kabir Nagar - Sharad Tripati
24. Salempur - Pankaj Shekar
25. Bareily - Santosh gangwar
26. Muzzafarnagar - Sangeet Som
27. Kairana - Hukum Singh
28. Nagina - Udit Raj
29. Ayodhya (Faizabad) - Ram Chandra
30. Bansgaon - Kamlesh Paswan

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 14 Mar 2014 23:44

I noticed the only LS constituency in Jharkhand where BJP has not declared its candidate is Jamshedpur, currently held by former cop Ajay Kumar who beat the BJP candidate last time by a good margin.

Does NaMo want to win this seat, or is NaMo considering including the 2 JVP-M MPs in 2014 - Babulal Marandi and Ajay Kumar into NDA after elections?

BTW, Babulal Marandi is not fighting from the seat he won from in 2009 - Kodarma, but from Dumka (ST). Why? I could well imagine it is an understanding with NaMo. That is why Babulal Marandi wanted to wait it out after the BJP list was public to say where he is going to fight from. He probably wanted to see if BJP is holding its side of the bargain - of putting up a relatively new "Soren" from Dumka to cut into Shibu Soren's votes.

It would be interesting to see whether BJP puts up a strong candidate in Jamshedpur or a weak one! Babulal Marandi may have asked for two seats - Jamshedpur for Ajay Kumar and one for himself.

The question is how can NaMo assure Jamshedpur for Ajay Kumar when there is a wave in his name, and some strong candidate would want to stand from there, and their understanding should remain a secret!

NaMo wants to do BJP (12) and JVP-M (2) from Jharkhand. There is an understanding. Does Rajnath Singh know about this? After all Rajnath Singh is Arjun Munda's big brother!

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 14 Mar 2014 23:48

muraliravi ji,

are there any Jats in the list? Is the candidate for Muzaffarnagar a Jat?

Added:
I see it is Sangeet Som who was accused of inciting Jats during Muzaffarnagar riots! Fantastic Move! That is if the list is true.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 14 Mar 2014 23:48

MuraliRavi-ji,
I genuinely hope you are wrong about Muzaffarnagar. Fielding a non-Jat in Muzaffarnagar means that BJP can kiss goodbye to Jat votes in western UP. It is all about symbolism. BJP has to field a Jat in Muzaffarnagar, re-affirm its commitment to community. Otherwise, many will probably go back and vote Chaudhary Ajit Singh. Stupid, probably, but that is what many will do.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 14 Mar 2014 23:48

RajeshA wrote:muraliravi ji,

are there any Jats in the list? Is the candidate for Muzaffarnagar a Jat?

The candidate from Muzaffarnagar is Thakur Sangeet Som, a Rajput, according to MuraliRavi-ji's list. From what I can see, there is certainly one Jat (Satyapal Singh in Baghpat). Surendra Nagar in Amroha is also a Jat, I think.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 14 Mar 2014 23:51

nageshks wrote:
RajeshA wrote:muraliravi ji,

are there any Jats in the list? Is the candidate for Muzaffarnagar a Jat?
The candidate from Muzaffarnagar is Thakur Sangeet Som, a Rajput, according to MuraliRavi-ji's list.

Yes, and he was accused of inciting violence during the Muzaffarnagar riots!

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 14 Mar 2014 23:54

RajeshA wrote: Yes, and he was accused of inciting violence during the Muzaffarnagar riots!

No, RajeshA-ji. It has to be a Jat. From the Jat PoV, Sangeet Som is an outsider. A sympathetic outsider, but still an outsider. BJP should really field a Jat in Muzaffarnagar, preferably one not directly connected to riots. Sanjeev Baliyan would be a good choice.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 15 Mar 2014 00:05

nageshks wrote:
RajeshA wrote: Yes, and he was accused of inciting violence during the Muzaffarnagar riots!
No, RajeshA-ji. It has to be a Jat. From the Jat PoV, Sangeet Som is an outsider. A sympathetic outsider, but still an outsider. BJP should really field a Jat in Muzaffarnagar, preferably one not directly connected to riots. Sanjeev Baliyan would be a good choice.

Hope I am wrong. lets see. BJP has done a good job this time of not allowing any leaks (my sources are all getting it from various corners, so many maybe wrong). In fact even Namo from Varanasi maybe wrong.

Muzzafarnagar is too important a seat for BJP to bungle. I am sure they will take a good call. In fact, if you look at the bihar seats carefully, they have done the best they could. There will always be someone who will rebel, unfortunately.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 15 Mar 2014 00:19

http://post.jagran.com/up-bjp-to-announ ... 1392108815

This is a month old, but it says Sanjiv Baliyan is the candidate from Muzzafarnagar.

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 15 Mar 2014 01:01

This should explain secret behind KalyanSingh's renewed vigour at the age of 80+. Amit Shah undoing all done by ABV(to weaken BJP)

In Uttar Pradesh Amit Shah, Modi's crisis manager, has made sweeping changes in the party at the district level. Kalraj Mishra, Lalji Tandon and other veterans, who have not helped the BJP much in the last three elections, stand discredited among party cadres.

Shah has ruthlessly brought in some 40 new junior leaders into the party at the lower level and weeded out the support base of leaders like Mishra and Tandon.

Shah is working in the party's interest, but it is aggressive politics for a party which has acquired lazy bones in UP.

These BJP leaders have been accused of siding with Bahujan Samah Party leader Mayawati and the Lucknow establishment, costing the BJP dearly. Their uprooting is necessary for the BJP to allow a younger leadership to grow.

The Brahmin-Baniya dominance is so strong in the BJP office in Lucknow that even as Amit Shah tries to push out the oldies and discredited leaders they are striking back with the 'Brahmin card' and trying to hit back at the 'OBC Modi'.

That's the crux behind Modi's Varanasi blues as well.

http://www.rediff.com/news/column/ls-el ... 140314.htm

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 15 Mar 2014 01:19

things that are doing rounds is that Ramdev Baba wants some 17 seats in UP and he is threatening to not support NDA.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 15 Mar 2014 02:06

From New Delhi - currently represented by former Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit's son Sandeep - the BJP will field Subramanian Swamy, while renowned journalist and author M.J. Akbar will be nominated from Northeast Delhi.

Hardeep Puri, India's former Permanent Representative to the United Nations, will be the BJP's face in West Delhi; South Delhi Municipal Corporation Mayor Sarita Chaudhary from South Delhi; Dalit leader Udit Raj from the reserved Northwest (SC); and spiritual guru Sri Sri Ravi Shankar's disciple Maheish Girri from East Delhi
http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/bjp- ... 49470.html

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 15 Mar 2014 02:15

Muppalla wrote:things that are doing rounds is that Ramdev Baba wants some 17 seats in UP and he is threatening to not support NDA.

^^ Unbelievable! Every one talks about nation and want to screw India and ally with ITALIAN MAFIA at the drop of hat. SUSHMA,KEJRIWAL, ADVANI and now RAMDEV.

People here are already demanding what to do and what not do.

First, Modi has to come. He has to take over the reigns of the power. Sideline internal enemies. Get cracking at people who are openly aligning with foreign forces to destroy India internally. PAIDMEDIA, PAIDMEDIA owners. They will all gang up to unleash Paki terrorists on India.

Lot of cleanup needed.Lot of it.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 15 Mar 2014 02:31

Ask baba ramdev to take a hike if wants 17 seats for his guys. Bjp does not need him.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 15 Mar 2014 02:32

Muppalla wrote:From New Delhi - currently represented by former Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit's son Sandeep - the BJP will field Subramanian Swamy, while renowned journalist and author M.J. Akbar will be nominated from Northeast Delhi.

Hardeep Puri, India's former Permanent Representative to the United Nations, will be the BJP's face in West Delhi; South Delhi Municipal Corporation Mayor Sarita Chaudhary from South Delhi; Dalit leader Udit Raj from the reserved Northwest (SC); and spiritual guru Sri Sri Ravi Shankar's disciple Maheish Girri from East Delhi
http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/bjp- ... 49470.html

The article has made a mess of things. Sandeep Dikshit is MP from East Delhi, not New Delhi. New Delhi is represented by Ajay Maken. Subramanian Swamy would be a great candidate against Sandeep Dikshit in East Delhi, given Swamy's anti corruption image, and Sandeep's reputation for corruption. Nevertheless, it is no easy matter to unseat Sandeep. Am I the only one to note the difference between Subbu Swamy not shying from a hard battle in taking on a corrupt scum, while the cowardly Rajnath, and Sushma scurry around for safe seats? There are many accusations one can legitimately make against Murli Manohar Joshi, but he does not shy away from hard contests (he has fought hard battles all the time, including last time in Varanasi). One gets the feeling that NaMo's BJP is a very different beast compared to Sushma/Advani's BJP.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 15 Mar 2014 03:36

Published on Mar 15, 2014
By Santosh Singh
Shatrughan: Will leave Patna Saheb for Modi, not anyone else: Indian Express

Patna: Miffed over BJP high command’s offer to contest from any Delhi Lok Sabha seat, Patna Saheb MP Shatrughan Sinha has made it clear that he can “leave the seat only for Narendra Modi, not for Ravishankar Prasad or anyone else”. Sinha told party chief Rajnath Singh that Patna Saheb was his “first and last choice” under “normal” circumstances.

Sinha was upset at his candidature not being announced for Patna Saheb on Thursday when candidates for 25 of the 30 Bihar Lok Sabha seats it would contest were announced. Ten seats have gone to alliance partners LJP and RLSP. BJP is yet to announce candidates from Patna Saheb, Supaul, Jhanjharpur, Maharajganj and Buxar. While the party is caught between Shatrughan Sinha and Ravishankar Prasad for Patna Saheb, the party has a tough choice between singer Manoj Tiwari and Sukhda Pandey for Buxar.

Sources told The Indian Express that Shatrughan Sinha had already spoken to Rajnath Singh and “sorted out” the matter. Sinha supporters had been giving the logic of him being the sitting MP, who “nursed the constituency with his frequent visits”. But the party leadership wants to give a chance to Ravishankar Prasad, who has “missed out on contesting from Patna Saheb” on previous occasions.

Prasad, however, has seldom spoken about his desire to contest LS polls. “I am a small party worker and should not be matter of discussion,” he said recently to journalists’ query on contesting coming polls.

Sab Baap ka Maal Hai!
It's all my father's!

VinodTK · Post by **VinodTK** » 15 Mar 2014 03:47

Congress old guard rejects all of Team Rahul’s proposals

In a rare occurrence for the Congress, several suggestions floated by Rahul Gandhi’s key aides were shot down by party veterans at an internal meeting on the 2014 manifesto, sources told HT on Friday.

The differences underline the growing chasm between the old guard and Team Rahul and illustrate the magnitude of the young vice-president’s task as he leads the party into next month’s general election.
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IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 15 Mar 2014 04:00

shatrughan sinha is a megalomaniac and good friend of Nitish Kumar, he is another one from dilli-harry gang who can sabotage

member_28502 · Post by **member_28502** » 15 Mar 2014 04:04

both are Kayasth too