Malaysian Airlines Flight MH-370 goes missing

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 16 Mar 2014 16:32

Or it was not misuse: plane WAS taken over.. and then taken over by the Unseen Alien Hand remotely.
Now the climb to 45K feet, dive down, and recovery at 20K feet all become plausible: a remote controller can do that without feeling sick. Shakes the pakistan out of any hijackers standing around the cabin, and hopefully gave passengers one chance to grab them all. But if that failed, then maybe the only remaining option is to run out of fuel. As for passengers asphyxiated, someone would have to turn off ventilation only to the cabin, and depressurize just that, if it was the hijackers who did it. OTOH, a remote operator, if able to depressurize, could do that to knock out/kill everyone, and then fly the plane to doom.
Wait a minute. IF the human pilots are dead, and no more interference from them, a remote flyer can also soft-land the aircraft!!

But man, that Maersk Alabama CT really had me going until I reached the last two sentences which were totally cuckoo. It was right along the Golden Rendezvous+Black Shrike/Dark Crusader plot except with an airliner replacing the ship(s). Thanks ramana, I just could not remember the D-C name.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 16 Mar 2014 16:44

partha wrote:As far as France!!

France has some islands in the Southern Ocean.

sattili · Post by **sattili** » 16 Mar 2014 16:50

why nobody is talking about Cambodia? If the flight crew lost control then it would be possible for the plane to stray over to Camobodian airspace and crashed in jungles or even may be in a swamp. Tonie Spa lake in Camobodia looks big that a 777 might have been swallowed by the swamp.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 16 Mar 2014 16:52

^^^^^^^^^^^
To disable said systems, all that may be required is to pull a few Circuit Breakers and the systems are dead. No specialised "flight engineer" knowledge is required.

A trained monkey could find those breakers.....

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 16 Mar 2014 17:05

In about 6 lines the link below sums up all the terrirst attacks that Malaysia has had to endure since 1977

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terrorism_ ... _incidents

Iraq has has more attacks than that in the time you took to click on the link.

Malaysia have no clue about terror investigation and have probably been very lax - just like the US before 9-11. Using a Malaysian aircraft bound for China to attack India would be sad for people who get killed but it would just be a pinprick that only proves that terrorists are getting desperate in their inability to get to India. Somehow I don't believe that. This is too far fetched a method to hit India - far faaaaaaaar easier methods exist.

More likely this could have been used to hit China where terrorists are otherwise using knives and chopsticks.

Personally I would discount the 9-11 type attack theory. But a hijack-hostage situation to blackmail China is plausible to me.

That plane IMO has not come over India. Someone call me out and tell me how stupid I am if they discover that it has. We are too quick to assume that Indians are asleep at the wheel or brain dead even as we come up with great theories of how ~~God~~ er America has everything under control and is not telling That plane has gone somewhere else. Probably that southern route. Sounds like someone took over the plane and knew how to fly but ooops - didn't know how to navigate.

In 2nd standard I had to fill in the blanks in a test. . I was given the sentence "I had a __k_ on my birthday". I wrote "I had a kak on my birthday after which I spent my time usefully helping a classmate of mine do her test. Unfortunately I was demoted to 1st std. I wish I had had some of today's BRFites as teachers. They would refuse to accept that I was dumb and ignorant but say that I know everything but I am hiding things because of my great power a greater concerns about world leadership . After all isn't that what the US is doing about Flt 370?

So far as I can see in the last zillion messages:
1. Anyone who says anything is dumb unless it comes from America, who know but are hiding the truth
2. People who say nothing, like India, are just dumb

BRF is gradually edging itself to being far ahead of the curve - we are almost round the bend now.

Rajiv Lather · Post by **Rajiv Lather** » 16 Mar 2014 17:11

I'll settle with "alien abduction theory" and be done with it. Sigh...

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 16 Mar 2014 17:13

In terms of ct diversity this thread is ahead of namo thread where even a wisp of wind registers as a congi conspiracy and responded to with 155mm units.

Rajiv Lather · Post by **Rajiv Lather** » 16 Mar 2014 17:32

There is no guilt in shooting down a hijacked airliner if it is coming at you. On the other hand, it sends a clear signal that we will do it again in the event of another similar incident. Those who want to cover up; better not be in positions where they are running a country and are responsible for saving the lives of their citizens.

RAMESHJ · Post by **RAMESHJ** » 16 Mar 2014 18:13

Pakistan not hiding missing Malaysian jet

http://www.dnaindia.com/world/report-pa ... al-1969847

The Pakistan government has denied media reports that said the missing Beijing-bound Malaysia Airlines jetliner, with 239 passenegers and crew on board, might be hidden somewhere in Pakistan.

Shujaat Azeem, special aviation assistant to the Pakistan prime minister, said the flight disappeared very far off from Pakistan, was never visible on the country's radars, and hence there was no chance Pakistan was hiding it, The Nation reported.

vasu raya · Post by **vasu raya** » 16 Mar 2014 18:13

if navigation was their weakness, it could be over sea and US might have switched off GPS around DG or where their ships are traversing, since the flight has entered GAGAN footprint would we be able to tell where GAGAN blinked since its currently is GPS derived?

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 16 Mar 2014 18:19

Well, who primarily commandeered the plane?
1. Pilot and/or co-pilot
2. Other members of the crew
3. Someone from the passengers
4. Remote control (necessarily aided by 1. or 2. or 3. ?)

Combinations are also possible.

If whoever commandeered the plane was insane, then any bizarre thing can happen. We should embrace the insanity hypothesis only if forced to. The hypothesis of an incapacitated crew that briefly regained consciousness sporadically and set the plane on the next leg of its journey is also a hypothesis of the last resort.

Since 152 of the 237 passengers onboard were Chinese, at first glance it would seem that the plot was directed against the Chinese. But if it was 9/11 against the Chinese, the plane would likely have continued on to Beijing, as though it hadn't been commandeered.

For a hostage situation, the conspirators had to have planned to land the plane. Where?

If the motive was theft, same problem, where were the conspirators going to land the plane?

For a plot directed against some other country - only 9/11 type stuff seems plausible, but how did the conspirators expect to get the plane close to their target without being intercepted?

Anyway, since no such thing came even close to happening, whatever the plot might have been, it likely went wrong. How? Infighting among the conspirators? Incapacitation through accident? Conspirator(s) flipping their lid? (but I dislike the insanity idea, it can explain anything.)

---
Suppose we say, we've been given inadequate information (e.g., that say, the plane is known to have been headed to Diego Garcia), or we've been given misleading information (e.g., the plane's last known transmission was not at 8:11 AM but much earlier). Given that no one knows that another Edward Snowden isn't lurking out there, such is dangerous, if it should come out the damage will likely be greater than that caused by the truth.

Maybe there is no more information to be had.

We may never know the answers.

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 16 Mar 2014 18:29

Why are we thinking the plot has gone wrong? What if the plot is working to the dot. They have the plane. No one knows where it is. What could be the next step is the key we have to go by unless we find the plane or get concrete evidence where it is crahsed or otherwise.

gakakkad · Post by **gakakkad** » 16 Mar 2014 18:30

Rajiv Lather wrote:There is no guilt in shooting down a hijacked airliner if it is coming at you. On the other hand, it sends a clear signal that we will do it again in the event of another similar incident. Those who want to cover up; better not be in positions where they are running a country and are responsible for saving the lives of their citizens.

we don't really know it was hijacked..pilot went off route due to navigation failure ..accidentally ventured where he should not have...and there was accidental firing of SAM ....

though imho incompetence and malfunction is more likely than some of the conspiracy theories...

we may never know what happened...

BTW I looove the baakis "We are not hiding the plane" statement... almost everything they say is benis material..

dinakar · Post by **dinakar** » 16 Mar 2014 18:33

Now this..

Syed Akbaruddin‏ @MEAIndia:
#Malaysia's PM calls PM #India's PM & seeks technical assistance in corroborating possible pathways #MH370 may have taken.
https://twitter.com/MEAIndia/status/445166768936333312

Whether PM of Malaysia called only Indian PM or he called others too. If he called only Indian PM then i'm really intrigued.

Rajiv Lather · Post by **Rajiv Lather** » 16 Mar 2014 18:40

Okay let us find the plane. First can someone somehow find out on what other routes did the pilot fly on before the present one ?

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 16 Mar 2014 18:45

gakakkad wrote:
we don't really know it was hijacked..pilot went off route due to navigation failure ..accidentally ventured where he should not have...and there was accidental firing of SAM ....

ACARS was not turned off by accident, as far as I understand.

Rajiv Lather · Post by **Rajiv Lather** » 16 Mar 2014 18:45

Anmol ji, if you are reading this, the pilot had a facebook profile - can we have all the screen shots of his posts Jan 2012 onward ?

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 16 Mar 2014 18:46

The NYT has a new map today.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/17/world ... ml?hp&_r=0

I notice that a destination somewhere in the Indonesian archipelago is not impossible.

or

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 16 Mar 2014 18:49

Further question - they're showing us the position of the aircraft based on the last ping. Where are the red arcs for the pings received during the four - five hours?

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 16 Mar 2014 19:02

The Pakis saying that they are not hiding the plane is to be taken in the same way Pakis sympathizing with us after every terrorist attack.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 16 Mar 2014 19:04

A_Gupta wrote:Further question - they're showing us the position of the aircraft based on the last ping. Where are the red arcs for the pings received during the four - five hours?

Why do we need them when we have the military radar track?

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 16 Mar 2014 19:13

SSridhar wrote:
A_Gupta wrote:Further question - they're showing us the position of the aircraft based on the last ping. Where are the red arcs for the pings received during the four - five hours?
Why do we need them when we have the military radar track?

We have the military radar track only till 1:34 after take off from Kuala Lumpur. From that time till 7:30 after take off from Kuala Lumpur, we only have the pings off the satellite. In fact, the only reason we believe the plane was still flying (or at least had its engines turned on) is because of these pings.

To recap, the plane took off from Kuala Lumpur, Saturday March 8, 12:41 AM, Malaysian time (UTC+8:00). The last military radar contact was at 2:15 AM, the last satellite ping was at 8:11 AM. There supposedly is a ping every hour, so I suppose there would be pings at 3:11 AM, 4:11 AM, 5:11 AM, 6:11 AM and 7:11 AM. I imagine the ping at 2:11 AM and the military radar contact can be used to validate that the ping location estimation is correct.

PS: I should be careful, so as not to cause confusion. The military radar at 2:11 AM puts the plane at a precise position on the map. The satellite ping at 2:11 AM will put the plane somewhere on a large arc (or arcs). The arc(s) drawn based on the satellite ping at 2:11 AM ought to pass through the point on the map specified by the military radar - that would give confidence that the INMARSAT method of calculating these arcs provides an accurate result.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 16 Mar 2014 19:37

dinakar wrote:Now this..

Syed Akbaruddin‏ @MEAIndia:
#Malaysia's PM calls PM #India's PM & seeks technical assistance in corroborating possible pathways #MH370 may have taken.
https://twitter.com/MEAIndia/status/445166768936333312
Whether PM of Malaysia called only Indian PM or he called others too. If he called only Indian PM then i'm really intrigued.

Why are you intrigued? The tweet is from MEA India. Why on earth would they report anything if any other leader was informed? If there was a hypothetical State Dept USA tweet that said that Obama was called would anyone be intrigued that no one else was called?

gakakkad · Post by **gakakkad** » 16 Mar 2014 19:37

can pings give the precise location ? perhaps not..

if i understand correctly pings would transmit some information to a communication satellite in a geo stationary orbit...for location to be the part of the transmitted information , the computer transmitting the ping should "know" the location... that knowledge can come from radars or satellite navigation .. it is known that both were unavailable...

other possible mechanism is triangulation ...but for that the pings would have to be transmitted to 2 satellites ? was it transmitted to 2 satellites ?

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 16 Mar 2014 19:39

There have been no details given on the "pings" etc for over 24 hours now.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 16 Mar 2014 19:42

^^^ What I'm interested in, is for example, is whether the intermediate pings are consistent with the plane zig-zagging in the Bay of Bengal.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 16 Mar 2014 19:44

harbans wrote:Why are we thinking the plot has gone wrong? What if the plot is working to the dot. They have the plane. No one knows where it is. What could be the next step is the key we have to go by unless we find the plane or get concrete evidence where it is crahsed or otherwise.

The next step would be refuelling.

Then a runway length of about 2000 meters (at less than max take off weight at sea level)

Navaids to navigate to destination

Stealth paint to avoid radar

Passengers have to be kept hostage on the ground and out of reach of phones - or bumped off.

Presumably they have been fed and cared for all thie time if they are to be hostages, but if bumped off - no problem. The latter would require several kalashnikovs and several men to bury or get rid of bodies as it would be an almighty stink. Or else a largish kitchen and supplies to keep 250 people fed . Someone with money and facilities to do that and cooperating with hijackers.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 16 Mar 2014 19:46

A_Gupta wrote:To recap, the plane took off from Kuala Lumpur, Saturday March 8, 12:41 AM, Malaysian time (UTC+8:00). The last military radar contact was at 2:15 AM, the last satellite ping was at 8:11 AM. There supposedly is a ping every hour, so I suppose there would be pings at 3:11 AM, 4:11 AM, 5:11 AM, 6:11 AM and 7:11 AM.

Oh, OK. I thought it was these hourly pings between 3:11 & 8:11 that determined the arcs.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 16 Mar 2014 19:49

gakakkad wrote:other possible mechanism is triangulation ...but for that the pings would have to be transmitted to 2 satellites ? was it transmitted to 2 satellites ?

No, only one sat. Isn't that the reason that we have the arcs that are only an approximation ?

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 16 Mar 2014 19:51

SSridhar wrote:
gakakkad wrote:other possible mechanism is triangulation ...but for that the pings would have to be transmitted to 2 satellites ? was it transmitted to 2 satellites ?
No, only one sat. Isn't that the reason that we have the arcs that are only an approximation ?

Yes, apparently all that they can deduce from the satellite is an angle of signal receipt relative to the satellite axis(?); that translates to an arc on the earth's surface.

Rajiv Lather · Post by **Rajiv Lather** » 16 Mar 2014 19:53

The yellow triangles are positions of interest. There are three war/drug lords with men, arms, organization and infrastructure to feed and shelter the hostages.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 16 Mar 2014 19:54

These are the reasons why the absence of new detail is frightening. Those who know about the "pings" and any radar traces etc are keeping quiet at least in public. What about contrails! Those show up on optical images, esp. if the sky is otherwise clear, and can't be turned off by anyone.

If the plot has not gone awry, then the terrists are taking a huge chance on being discovered, hain?

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 16 Mar 2014 19:55

Off Indonesia India may be best placed to do a surveillance. God knows how ships would help but air and satellite assets, both of which India has would be good for that specific area. None of those would be required for "undersea events"

but then that may not be what to look for

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 16 Mar 2014 19:57

Rajiv Lather wrote:
The yellow triangles are positions of interest. There are three war/drug lords with men, arms, organization and infrastructure to feed and shelter the hostages.

Airstrips that allow a 777 to land are the problem. ALL of them would be examined by satellites even as we talk.

Rajiv Lather · Post by **Rajiv Lather** » 16 Mar 2014 19:58

Now we overlay this Golden triangle map on the map of red arcs. And see if any international air route passes over or near this. And then check if the pilot had flown extensively over this area.

I know for a fact that these warlords are known to have well hidden air strips which they use for smuggling drugs and precious gems.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 16 Mar 2014 19:58

Some info. on possibly how they're using the satellite pings to estimate (locus of) position:
http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/side ... tim-farrar

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 16 Mar 2014 20:02

Rajiv Lather wrote:Now we overlay this Golden triangle map on the map of red arcs. And see if any international air route passes over or near this. And then check if the pilot had flown extensively over this area.

I know for a fact that these warlords are known to have well hidden air strips which they use for smuggling drugs and precious gems.

Well hidden from local authorities, but not from satellites. 777 s require a proper 2 km (at least) runway which is hard enough to with stand 200 tons hitting the surface via a few wheels - translating to thousands of kg/sq cm. If the wheels sink, the plane's nose will plough into earth and produce an almighty funeral pyre.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 16 Mar 2014 20:06

Ouch! (Old Malaysian airlines advertisement)
https://twitter.com/WillMcHoebag/status ... to/1/large

PS: the above is doctored from a Malayasian Airlines A380 ad.
http://www.flightstory.net/20120308/new ... a380-video

Anantha · Post by **Anantha** » 16 Mar 2014 20:07

SSridhar wrote:The Pakis saying that they are not hiding the plane is to be taken in the same way Pakis sympathizing with us after every terrorist attack.

It is possible "higher powers" outsourced the abduction of the plane to Pakis. Pakis have AOA type pilots who could potentially take over/ receive a hijacked plane in Pakiland or in some remote area outside pakiland designated by the higher powers. This keeps the higher powers from getting officially involved just like the "David Headley" issue.

Rajiv Lather · Post by **Rajiv Lather** » 16 Mar 2014 20:12

shiv wrote:
Rajiv Lather wrote:Now we overlay this Golden triangle map on the map of red arcs. And see if any international air route passes over or near this. And then check if the pilot had flown extensively over this area.

I know for a fact that these warlords are known to have well hidden air strips which they use for smuggling drugs and precious gems.
Well hidden from local authorities, but not from satellites.

I know what you are saying; but this is an extraordinary situation. If it is a hijack/extortion operation, then someone planned it to the very last detail. To me, it seems if the passengers are alive, we will find them somewhere in this area.