Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

svenkat · Post by **svenkat** » 18 Mar 2014 16:57

http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/other-states/mamata-should-be-more-critical-of-modi-kolkata-imam/article5799667.ece

Accusing BJP’s Prime Ministerial candidate Narendra Modi of being an “opportunist”, prominent city cleric Maulana Barkati on Tuesday asked Trinamool Congress leader Mamata Banerjee to be more critical of Mr. Modi in order to prove her secular credentials.

The Imam of city’s Tipu Sultan Mosque, Maulana Barkati, told PTI, “We know she is secular but If Mamata Banerjee wants to prove her secular credentials, she should be more aggressive and critical about Mr. Modi. Rahul Gandhi has been critical of Modi, we want Mamata Banerjee also to come out openly in criticising Modi.”

niran · Post by **niran** » 18 Mar 2014 17:05

muraliravi wrote:Niran ji

Yesterday's dainik jagran had a report on how rns posters were burnt in deoria. Apparently sp shahi was miffed at deoria seat being given to kalraj. It sais that shahi may stand as rebel??

Any truth to the report

there were 17 protesters in total media was phoned
and they protested for around 20 minutes and they dispersed
sp sahi himself knew it from media reports.

sp sahi is an out and out mafiaso, remember the sahi and teawarry gang war of 70ies and 80ies
teawarry went to congress sahi joined bjp he knows if he fights as an independent or somehow tandon
loses he will be tandoori marinated by teawarry tandoored by RNS or vise versa.

meanwhile bsp gonna be major challenger in up rular areas
sapa is running third mostly apart from hardcoore sapa areas
congress distant fourth and aap does not even register.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 18 Mar 2014 18:10

niran wrote: there were 17 protesters in total media was phoned
and they protested for around 20 minutes and they dispersed
sp sahi himself knew it from media reports.

sp sahi is an out and out mafiaso, remember the sahi and teawarry gang war of 70ies and 80ies
teawarry went to congress sahi joined bjp he knows if he fights as an independent or somehow tandon
loses he will be tandoori marinated by teawarry tandoored by RNS or vise versa.

meanwhile bsp gonna be major challenger in up rular areas
sapa is running third mostly apart from hardcoore sapa areas
congress distant fourth and aap does not even register.

Good to hear that. So basically muslims may just blindly vote for BSP this time in their attempt to stop BJP.

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 18 Mar 2014 18:12

"The Imam of city’s Tipu Sultan Mosque, Maulana Barkati, told PTI"

This Imam needs to be told to STFU without any rights to decide secularism of others; and instead told to explain genocidal rage boy Tipu Sultan's anti Hindu fanatism.

These days anyone can Blabber anything.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 18 Mar 2014 18:30

I guess Ramakant Yadav will find it hard to win Azamgarh, apparently Mullah Yadav aka Mulayam Singh Yadav has decided to contest in 2 seats, Mainpuri and Azamgarh.

But overall, it may not be bad for BJP, as mullah yadav is in a frantic bid to get muslim votes, so M votes might after all get divided more than i expected.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 18 Mar 2014 18:39

This is not so good news for BJP. Azamgarh is yadav + ms seat. At the least, Mulayam may win and reduce BJP tally by 1. This will most probably lead to more polarization. Let's see.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 18 Mar 2014 18:45

Tweeple imply this is a recent rally. I have no proof. So take it with a dash of salt.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 18 Mar 2014 19:19

http://5forty3.in/2014/03/18/analysis-o ... the-up-53/

I am just now reading it, but here is what struck me and this is exactly what I was thinking. Western India: MH, RJ, GJ, MP, Chattisgarh, Goa etc.. (barring few seats in MH), UP & Bihar seem fine. BJP needs 40-50 seats in rest of India and a core part of that is northern india

"There is one surprisingly negative aspect to BJP’s ticket distribution though – it seems the party somehow doesn’t have the same clarity in the smaller north-western states (the Punjab-Jammu belt) as in the heartland (UP-Bihar region). As it is the Jammu shenanigans has already become famous, now BJP seems to have made a mess in Punjab and parts of Haryana too. Will these small bits and pieces hurt BJP, or will the larger picture camouflage these minor indiscretions remains to be seen".

They seem to have done ok in Himachal, Utt. But Haryana, Assam, Delhi, parts of MH worry me a lot.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 18 Mar 2014 19:44

muraliravi wrote:http://5forty3.in/2014/03/18/analysis-o ... the-up-53/
"There is one surprisingly negative aspect to BJP’s ticket distribution though – it seems the party somehow doesn’t have the same clarity in the smaller north-western states (the Punjab-Jammu belt) as in the heartland (UP-Bihar region). As it is the Jammu shenanigans has already become famous, now BJP seems to have made a mess in Punjab and parts of Haryana too. Will these small bits and pieces hurt BJP, or will the larger picture camouflage these minor indiscretions remains to be seen".

They seem to have done ok in Himachal, Utt. But Haryana, Assam, Delhi, parts of MH worry me a lot.

MuraliRavi-ji,
The Haryana ticket distribution is not a problem the BJP could solve. The BJP which existed in Haryana in 2012 could not win a single seat on its own. So, the BJP has fielded 3 Congress defectors to take advantage of the NaMo wave in Haryana. Their ticket distribution was messed up big time by SS, who stopped the entry of Venod Sharma into the HJC. There are three segments of the population that must get tickets in Haryana from the BJP, viz, the upper castes (1-2 seats), OBCs (3-4 seats), Jats (2-3) seats. There are, of course, 2 reserved seats that will feature Dalits. Of the 8 seats that the BJP got, it got 2 reserved seats. It fielded 2 Jats, 3 OBCs and 1 Brahmin. The original plan was to let HJC field the Brahmin in Karnal, while the BJP fielded 2 Jats and 3 OBCs, and 1 Rajput (Gen V K Singh in Bhiwani Mahendragarh). However, Sushma auntie stopped Venod Sharma (who is the only Brahmin capable of fighting in Karnal, unless SS decided to do it herself). Consequently, BJP ticket distribution was thrown out of gear. To accommodate a Brahmin (Ramesh Kaushik), they had to deny ticket to a Jat (Pradeep Sangwan) in Sonepat. As a result, without Venod Sharma in HJC, BJP has been weakened in 3 constituencies, Ambala, Karnal, and Sonepat - 2 directly because Venod Sharma plays a big role in both Karnal and Ambala, and 1 indirectly, because of inconvenient ticket distribution in Sonepat. Also, to accommodate the second Jat, they had to reward a Congress defector, Dharamveer Singh in Bhiwani-Mahendragarh and move Gen. V. K. Singh to Ghaziabad.

Also, I don't see anything wrong with the ticket distribution in Assam. Which particular seat/s do you think BJP has messed up?

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 18 Mar 2014 20:05

nageshks wrote:
MuraliRavi-ji,

Also, I don't see anything wrong with the ticket distribution in Assam. Which particular seat/s do you think BJP has messed up?

Nagesh ji,

I dont have much knowledge on Assam, but many twitterati were suggesting that without alliance with AGP, BJP is toast and plus the NDTV-Hansa survey gives them a big zero. That is again supported by CSDS (even though they dont give seats, they gave cong - 48% vote share and BJP just 30%, which is literally a wash out).

What do you think about the Jammu Seats, are both winnable or did they goof up.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 18 Mar 2014 20:13

muraliravi wrote: Nagesh ji,

I dont have much knowledge on Assam, but many twitterati were suggesting that without alliance with AGP, BJP is toast and plus the NDTV-Hansa survey gives them a big zero. That is again supported by CSDS (even though they dont give seats, they gave cong - 48% vote share and BJP just 30%, which is literally a wash out).

What do you think about the Jammu Seats, are both winnable or did they goof up.

MuraliRavi-ji,
AGP tie up for BJP helps as much as it hurts. When BJP ties up with AGP, it gets the small Hindu AGP base left to it, but the BJP's Bengali Hindu voters tend to jump to the Congress. AGP increases BJP vote, but also increases Congress vote. Similarly, when the BJP ties up with AGP, AGP's Assamese Muslims move to the Congress, helping the Congress. Arithmetic suggests AGP+BJP is a winner, but Chemistry suggests otherwise. Also, AGP is dying. It has almost no base left among Hindus now. All AGP leaders worth taking are being grabbed by BjP, AASU rank and file has shifted support to BJP, thanks to the entry of Rituparna Baruah (Secretary of the AASU) into the BJP. Also, 48% for the Congress is extremely doubtful to me. 39% has been the maximum won by the Congress in any election in the last 30 years, and we are seeing a pro-Modi wave in NE, particularly Assam. I find it hard to believe that the Congress has 48% vote, even if one adds every single AUDF vote to the Congress (AUDF had some 12% vote in 2011, and they are contesting the election too).

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 18 Mar 2014 20:16

http://5forty3.in/2014/03/18/analysis-o ... the-up-53/

Super Positive: Victory by big margin (6)

Positive: BJP being ahead of the rest (20)

Average: Tough contest but winnable for the BJP especially in a wave election (11)

Below Average: BJP behind as of now, but the seat is not “unwinnable”, provided party puts in hard work and lady luck shines on its candidate (10)

Negative: No chance of winning for BJP (6)

So, of the 53 seats announced in UP so far, 26 seem good to go. Good job guys, well done.

Disclaimer: Only one data point.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 18 Mar 2014 20:18

nageshks wrote:
muraliravi wrote: Nagesh ji,

I dont have much knowledge on Assam, but many twitterati were suggesting that without alliance with AGP, BJP is toast and plus the NDTV-Hansa survey gives them a big zero. That is again supported by CSDS (even though they dont give seats, they gave cong - 48% vote share and BJP just 30%, which is literally a wash out).

What do you think about the Jammu Seats, are both winnable or did they goof up.
AGP tie up for BJP helps as much as it hurts. When BJP ties up with AGP, it gets the small Hindu AGP base left to it, but the BJP's Bengali Hindu voters tend to jump to the Congress. AGP increases BJP vote, but also increases Congress vote. Similarly, when the BJP ties up with AGP, AGP's Assamese Muslims move to the Congress, helping the Congress. Arithmetic suggests AGP+BJP is a winner, but Chemistry suggests otherwise. Also, AGP is dying. It has almost no base left among Hindus now. All AGP leaders worth taking are being grabbed by BjP, AASU rank and file has shifted support to BJP, thanks to the entry of Rituparna Baruah (Secretary of the AASU) into the BJP. Also, 48% for the Congress is extremely doubtful to me. 39% has been the maximum won by the Congress in any election in the last 30 years, and we are seeing a pro-Modi wave in NE, particularly Assam. I find it hard to believe that the Congress has 48% vote, even if one adds every single AUDF vote to the Congress (AUDF had some 12% vote in 2011, and they are contesting the election too).

The 48% was indeed suspect, c-voter had very different numbers. lets see if some more numbers come out in the next few days. But you are right that most AGP bigwigs seem to jumped to BJP.

Rahul Mehta · Post by **Rahul Mehta** » 18 Mar 2014 20:27

Have BJP-leaders decided to give away Haryana\Chandigadh to AAP-owners and Congress-owners?

I normally focus on "how to get good law-drafts passed" ONLY and dont bother with "who will win where" (I am going to lose only).

But candidate selection in Haryana shocked even uninterested person like me. And so I started digging using google. After looking at Haryana and Chandaigadh candidate selection by BJP, it is clear to me that BJP-apex has cut deal with Congress-owners that "you can keep seats in Haryana\Chandigadh" for something in return. It is clear that BJP-apex is giving away those seats to AAP, Congress-leaders and former Congress leaders who just joined BJP. What BJP-apex will gain for giving away Haryana seats needs to be speculated with open mind. The missionaries are planning for a huge expansion in Haryana dalits by creating feelings of social discrimination. AAP's Yogendra Yadav is a crypto and so is AK. There is huge anti-Congressism in Haryana\Chandigadh. With BJP putting such useless candidates, only AAP will benefit and benefit big time. So have BJP-leaders been forced by threat of AK to cut deal with Missionaries and give away Haryana to AAP = Missionaries?

As far as Haryana\Chandigadh goes, the nationalists, swadesi and hinduvaadies have lost big time. No matter which 12 MPs come from Haryana\Chandigadh, they will be anti-India, anti-Swadeshi and anti-Hinduvaad.

Chandragupta · Post by **Chandragupta** » 18 Mar 2014 20:58

RM saar Gul Panag will defeat Kiron Kher? Come on.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 18 Mar 2014 21:10

Why doesnt Nilenkani fire some employees immediately and ecruit to implement his reservaation ideas, it would be a good start.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 18 Mar 2014 22:14

svenkat wrote:deleted my slanderous post.thanks niranji.

svenkat, why do you still do that? This elections India is moving beyond caste to development for all Indians.
Control the submit button for harmony and long life here.

Comer · Post by **Comer** » 18 Mar 2014 22:40

ramana wrote:What are Nilekani's prospects?

A slew of 'activist'/ItVty newly rich have gone to support him.

Going by my TL, reports of him supporting reservation in private sector has ruffled so many jimmies.

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 18 Mar 2014 22:56

For the seculars wearing a skull cap is getting boring. It's no longer par for the course. Next logical step for the secular brigade is to take a sharp knife and on Eid halal a goat or two or a cow for being branded more highly secular. I don't think that day we see this is far. After all if communals in BJP can light a lamp in a religious function why can't secular leaders slaughter a goat to prove their credentials?

darshhan · Post by **darshhan** » 18 Mar 2014 23:02

niran wrote:
sp sahi is an out and out mafiaso, remember the sahi and teawarry gang war of 70ies and 80ies
teawarry went to congress sahi joined bjp he knows if he fights as an independent or somehow tandon
loses he will be tandoori marinated by teawarry tandoored by RNS or vise versa.

Boss, that shahi was Virender shahi(gunned down long back in 1990's at Lucknow) and not Surya Pratap shahi who has always been a part of BJP. Sometimes the information you disseminate is heavily suspect. You got to check your source.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 18 Mar 2014 23:07

I guess public circumcision maybe the only way to prove you are secular. Lets wait for that day. I guess the first to take it there may be AK420.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 18 Mar 2014 23:10

Chandragupta wrote:RM saar Gul Panag will defeat Kiron Kher? Come on.

If she does nanga naach like a Poonam Pandey, then why not?

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 18 Mar 2014 23:11

fanne wrote:I guess public circumcision maybe the only way to prove you are secular. Lets wait for that day. I guess the first to take it there may be AK420.

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 18 Mar 2014 23:18

darshhan wrote:
niran wrote:
sp sahi is an out and out mafiaso, remember the sahi and teawarry gang war of 70ies and 80ies
teawarry went to congress sahi joined bjp he knows if he fights as an independent or somehow tandon
loses he will be tandoori marinated by teawarry tandoored by RNS or vise versa.

Boss, that shahi was Virender shahi(gunned down long back in 1990's at Lucknow) and not Surya Pratap shahi who has always been a part of BJP. Sometimes the information you disseminate is heavily suspect. You got to check your source.

Another time he challenged me for RNS being a Bhumihar. Once came arranged marriage proposal with his niece for moi and me isn't a Bhumihar.

Manu · Post by **Manu** » 18 Mar 2014 23:29

Chandragupta wrote:RM saar Gul Panag will defeat Kiron Kher? Come on.

Actually, the will both be defeated by Pawan Bansal. Take it from me.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 18 Mar 2014 23:36

Possible. He must have accumulated lot of money and will be spending liberally just to prove a point. Kiran Kher is not a regular political leader and local BJP politicos are also may not be willing to support her.

Manu · Post by **Manu** » 19 Mar 2014 00:01

More than just possible and not for the reasons stated by you. No body in Chandigarh will vote for a person who is not accessible. Pawan Bansal is. Ms. Kher is not. Ms. Panang has no shot.

Pawan Bansal holds 'durbars' and does help people.

The slums in Chandigarh (yes, Chandigarh has slums) are 100%Congress.

jamwal · Post by **jamwal** » 19 Mar 2014 01:14

Beyond sector 45 ?

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 19 Mar 2014 02:09

Per IBTL's latest survey BJP is winning all 7 Delhi seats. AAP is winning Chandigargh.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 19 Mar 2014 02:19

link?

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 19 Mar 2014 02:54

https://twitter.com/IndiaBTL
For 14 seats of Punjab & Chandigarh
Punjab - 13 seats
Congress 5
BJP 2
SAD 6

Chandigarh - 1 seat
AAP 1
BJP 0
Congress 0 .
View conversation Reply Retweet Favorite More
IBTL ‏@IndiaBTL 9h
Predictions from North India pour in
Delhi - 7 seats
INC - 0 (-7)
BJP - 7 (+7)
AAP - 0 (0) .
AAP on a free fall in the capital city region .
Expand Reply Retweet Favorite More
IBTL ‏@IndiaBTL 9h
Starting the last leg of predictions from today. Each day 2-3 states will be covered Regionwise results will be updated in website N-E-S-W .

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 19 Mar 2014 04:03

Papers report that PMK's RamDoss is demanding more from BJP before Rajnath Singh arrives in Chennai.
They also report PMK had no wins in last General Elections and only 4 seats in the Assembly.

Are the leaders so full of themselves they dont know their realistic chances?

Also report of Chicken Reddy claiming 40 Assy seats and 8 Lok Sabha in Telangana! Looks like she should join PMK and assess there real strength or lack there of.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 19 Mar 2014 04:05

fanne in Punjab which are the 5 Congress Seats? Are they new ones or retaining old ones.

How come Punjab they still have 5/13 presence?

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 19 Mar 2014 06:50

Gul Panag is married since a few years. She seems to have participated in social causes.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 19 Mar 2014 06:56

Punjab, BJP has done bad (as in heavy infighting). They also carry the burden of Junior Badal Corruption (it matters to BJP voter base).

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 19 Mar 2014 07:13

fanne wrote:Punjab, BJP has done bad (as in heavy infighting). They also carry the burden of Junior Badal Corruption (it matters to BJP voter base).

The only leaders who can rebuild the BJP base are Avinash Rai Khanna, and Manoranjan Kalia. Both have been sidelined and the octogenarian Balramji Dass Tandon has been leading the BJP. He is an honest man, but too old for any party work. He should step aside and let Avinash Rai Khanna lead. Still, sheer hatred for Congress at the Centre means that BJP may win in Amritsar and Hoshiarpur. Gurdaspur is certainly lost to it, I would say.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 19 Mar 2014 07:19

I think Vinod khanna has good chance in Gurdaspur

svenkat · Post by **svenkat** » 19 Mar 2014 07:21

ramanaji,
My question was a genuine one.Niran has given the answer.It was about why RN Singh took over from lalji tandon in lucknow.

Regarding caste,thats feature of Indian elections.there are a hundred parties based on caste.

niran · Post by **niran** » 19 Mar 2014 07:47

darshhan wrote:
niran wrote:
sp sahi is an out and out mafiaso, remember the sahi and teawarry gang war of 70ies and 80ies
teawarry went to congress sahi joined bjp he knows if he fights as an independent or somehow tandon
loses he will be tandoori marinated by teawarry tandoored by RNS or vise versa.

Boss, that shahi was Virender shahi(gunned down long back in 1990's at Lucknow) and not Surya Pratap shahi who has always been a part of BJP. Sometimes the information you disseminate is heavily suspect. You got to check your source.

I ain't saying he is the gunned down sahi, pliss to be checking your source, this sahi has been managing the motor parts smuggling from Nepal and the transport bizniss section of the sahi family, how do I know? well I will just say this

he is phamily

niran · Post by **niran** » 19 Mar 2014 07:52

fanne wrote:This is not so good news for BJP. Azamgarh is yadav + ms seat. At the least, Mulayam may win and reduce BJP tally by 1. This will most probably lead to more polarization. Let's see.

then he will have to give up one of the seats (assuming he wins mainpuri) if he gives azamgarh then the winner shall be BJP
if he gives up mainpuri he will have irked his traditional voters.