Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

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Rahul Mehta
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Rahul Mehta »

Chandragupta wrote:RM saar Gul Panag will defeat Kiron Kher? Come on.
A big chunk of middle class is pro-AK. One needs a good candidate to attract them away from AK and make them vote for BJP. Kiron kher cant do that. So lower class will all vote for Congress i.e. Bansal, who has been a long time politician with base. And a big chunk of BJP voters will feel disillusioned with Kiron Kher and may not just vote.

So finally, some middle class will vote for BJP, some middle class will vote for AAP and lower class will vote for Bansal en-masse. And so Pawan Bansal will win.

My take is ------ media-owners threatened BJP-apex to use AK-card and then offered them a deal ---- put weak candidates in Haryana\Chandigadh, support FDI etc etc for some things in offer. And so we saw pro-FDI stand from BJP, mess in Haryana\Chandigadh BJP and in return , paid-media played anti-AK video of AK and Punya Prasson Vajpayee.

Now, I am NOT a BJP-supporter. And so I am not complaining on KH's getting ticket. I have no right to complain. I am throwing this issue ONLY because I want to tell nationalists NOT to waste anymore time in neta-andh-bhakti and organization-andh-bhakti. Both neta and organization (organization = set of neta) in the end are weak and will buckle out. Their strength is only dialog-baazi and posturing. If NaMo was all that dynamic and strong as story-tellers tell me, then why is NaMo putting up with people like KH? If NaMo cant control BJP-leaders, whoTH hell can he control MNC-mafia, judicious mafia, land mafia, medical mafia and 10s of other mafia going round India? Solution is that nationalists activists should focus on mass-movement to get good law-drafts passed ONLY and not waste time on leader-andh-bhakti.

=====

To all,

Only a hard code 48 carat dhmmi will say that Tridevalaya is anti-development. In fact, this was the argument used by Rajiv Gandhi , PVNR and other Congressi that RJB Devalaya issue is anti-development. You guys carry on with your dhmmitude. But pls dont project us Tridevalaya-vaadies as aadi-manav. I have explained this point 10s of time, and I wont repeat it here.
Last edited by Rahul Mehta on 19 Mar 2014 08:10, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by gandharva »

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by darshhan »

niran wrote:
darshhan wrote: Boss, that shahi was Virender shahi(gunned down long back in 1990's at Lucknow) and not Surya Pratap shahi who has always been a part of BJP. Sometimes the information you disseminate is heavily suspect. You got to check your source.
I ain't saying he is the gunned down sahi, pliss to be checking your source, this sahi has been managing the motor parts smuggling from Nepal and the transport bizniss section of the sahi family, how do I know? well I will just say this
he is phamily
Boss, when you allude to Tiwari - Shahi gang war in Gorakhpur, it means Virender Shahi. Surya Pratap Shahi is altogether a different Shahi.

And if you are looking for a clean political leader in UP (any party), then all the best. You will probably have to go back to Kalyan Singh(relatively cleaner).

The percentage of politicians involved in illegal activities would be in high 90's.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by BhairavP »

fanne wrote:I think Vinod khanna has good chance in Gurdaspur
Not nominated yet...
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by svenkat »

http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/tamil-nadu/hectic-efforts-on-to-end-pmkbjp-faceoff/article5801970.ece
The Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK), which was on the verge of breaking ties with the BJP, was held back from its decision on Tuesday following an intervention from a person close to the RSS leadership who was instrumental in bringing together the two parties.

The intervention came on the request of former Union Minister Anbumani Ramadoss, who had prevailed upon his father to wait till Wednesday before taking any drastic measure, sources said.

The BJP State leaders met and held deliberations on Tuesday afternoon following the developments.

Sources said Dr. Ramadoss, the PMK founder, wanted to snap ties with the BJP, but he was assured by the interlocutor that his demands on seat allotments would be discussed with all seriousness.

In consequence, the sources said parleys with DMDK had to be reopened as Dr. Ramadoss was insistent on getting either Salem or Tiruvannamalai, which he felt were winnable seats for the party. Dr. Ramadoss was also under pressure from PMK district units as candidates announced by the party months earlier have already spent considerable resources on campaigning.

The PMK leadership is yet to reconcile itself to the reality of working with the Vijyakant-led DMDK as the party had in the past campaigned aggressively against the actor-turned-politician, who sought to replace the PMK in its traditional turf.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Paul »

Vinod Khanna was not known for doing much for his constituency. He won mainly on star appeal going by past news reports.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Vikas »

Yesterday was stuck in a small rally by congress in Jayangar. Mostly young kids on Bikes and scooters.
I still don't see how NN will win from Bangalore South especially with congress having a bad name and AK being a old hand. I wonder how come all these "Clean" and "professional" people who we always exhort to join politics are the first ones to become Extra Sikular as soon as they are promised the ticket, NN being the prime example.
Having said that I don't see any activity in AK's office near my home. no banners, no crowd, nothing..

Based upon what I hear, BJP will win Jammu Constituency. Udhampur maybe a close fight. Not sure how Dr. Jatinder singh is handling such a big constituency (He used to be my doctor when I was young).
If I was in Jammu, I would have canvassed for him.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Vikas »

A lot of observations that we are making are based upon regular elections but these are not regular elections.
A slew of scams by congress, Inflation beyond tolerable limits, lack of any Governance, MSM firing on all cylinders and TsuNamo would turn lot of results upside down including spoiling case considerations.

Anyways picking so called right candidates in the past didn't help BJP cross even 200. Infact despite all shenanigans by so called BJP leaders, It was down to 114 in 2009. So we should take all these protests with a bucketful of salt.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Manish_Sharma »

Paul wrote:Vinod Khanna was not known for doing much for his constituency. He won mainly on star appeal going by past news reports.
I've relatives in Gurdaspur, they say he did lot of work, a much needed bridge was built due to his efforts. More than him his wife Kavita was also very dedicated to work.

But probably Munna ji can give the true picture, he has been MIA for long time now.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by member_28173 »

Curious Question ::

What does people think of HOODA...

Somewhere I think he is best Congress CM within INC framework.
Why is INC doing everything to bring him down from long time. Even 2009 elections were suspicious results. Someone gets made home minister and everything comes down big way. There is big difference between 1st 5 years and second 5years. His fight with Badals etc.

He might not get any seat except Rotak assuming BJP was hell bent on breaking him. Instead as Rahul Mehta pointed out Haryana is gifted.

My Interest in Haryana after AP is linked to Gujarat. How development model can be brought down :(

I see shades of Chimanbhai Patel in him....... You never know which side he is but works wonder.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Chandragupta »

I think you're overrating Hooda. He is a typical Congressi, nothing more. So much could have been done in Gurgaon but Hooda wants to destroy Chautala's legacy & is pushing Rohtak instead.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by kapilrdave »

>>> I think you're overrating Hooda.

And chimanbhai Patel too!!
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by kancha »

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by kancha »

Armed forces as a vote bank

Came across this article some days ago. Some interesting data points as under
In the last few months, these Punjab-based ex-servicemen organisations have managed to get around one lakh serving defence personnel registered as voters in the three major cantonments of Jalandhar, Amritsar and Ferozepur. Brig. (retd.) G.S. Ghuman of All India Veteran’s Core Group (AIVCG) said that though the Election Commission (EC) does not have a system to register servicemen, wherever non-governmental organisations or local formation commanders are proactive they have been able to get them enrolled. In Pune and Jalandhar, commanding officers of some units are encouraging soldiers under their command to get themselves enrolled, a development that has not gone unnoticed.
Things changed when the armed forces felt short-changed by the Sixth Central Pay Commission recommendations. Organisations like the Indian Ex-Servicemen Movement (IESM) formed in 2008 gathered strength as they lobbied for a better deal for soldiers. Many in the armed forces began to realise that “unless they become a powerful vote bank for all types of elections in the country, the politicians will not care” for them.
The most pleasant of them all, however, has been the Central government’s decision to implement the “One Rank One Pension” policy. The same government which was indifferent when ex-servicemen took to the streets in 2010 demanding “equal pension for each rank,” has now overruled the Defence Ministry’s contention that the policy is not “legally or administratively” possible and rushed to appease the armed forces. By all accounts, the 2014 Lok Sabha election will be a watershed in the democratic empowerment of the armed forces.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Singha »

does sawai mahdopur have a surplus of islam khatre mein hain types?

mohn azharuddin has left his moradabad seat and will contest from sawai madhopur this time

what are his links to both? i thought he was a born and brought up in hyd ? no links to both per wikipedia

typical of imported persian nobles being given mansabdari estates by the sultanate if he has no local links

atleast other mansabdars kursheed ji can atleast claim to contest from their birth area
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by RajeshA »

An industrialist from Panipat, Avinash Paliwal, is likely to be fielded from Karnal. Source
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Chandragupta »

Sawai Madhopur has a fairly large Muslim population (I think around 20%?). They are Gaddi muslims, descending from Rajputs & not necessarily islam khatre me hain types. Assembly seat also went to Diya Kumari, BJP. Azzu might lose his deposit if BJP has put up a strong candidate.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Santosh »

Atri wrote:
Santosh wrote:Atri ji, why do you have so much respect for Pawar? Just curious. The guy is corrupt to the core.
you got to respect your enemies. the way he has ensured that fissures are maintained and arise in all other MH parties is a mark of a highly gifted politician of kootaneeti variety (a la Shakuni). I have immense respect for Shakuni as well.
Mind blowing. Dhanyawaad!
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by muraliravi »

RajeshA wrote:An industrialist from Panipat, Avinash Paliwal, is likely to be fielded from Karnal. Source
They are changing the candidate, initially they released the list with Chander Mohan as the candidate. That was followed by an outrage on twitter and other methods from Haryana BJP supporters. That forced BJP/HJC to change candidate.

Rajesh ji, see the effect. We should get into this habit more often and of course after elections. This twitter/sms/fb thing is quite effective. This is the 5th or 6th instance where I see positive changes from BJP following feedback on twitter.

btw, paliwal will win with big margins.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by munna »

Dhananjay wrote:But probably Munna ji can give the true picture, he has been MIA for long time now.
Khanna is a good guy with lots of traction in the region but going by Amritsar and Hoshiarpur trends the seat will in all likelihood go to Salaria.

All in all

a) Amritsar: Jaitley will in all likelihood win this time but Punjab BJP will never ever win this seat after 2014.

b) Hoshiarpur: I was mailed an analysis written by a gent called Mr Patil. Yes, I concur that Vijay Sampla will find it tough on this seat but he was wrong in making it a Kamal Sharma Vs Ashwani Sharma fight. Actually these two politicians are greenhorns and fronts of larger interests.

c) Gurdaspur: Vinod Khanna may win but Salaria (backed by Shanta Kumar, Kamal Sharma and Joshi) will be given the ticket.


2009 Position

1 narrow win and 2 narrow losses

2014

1 moderate win and 2 moderate losses


Outsourcing of Punjab BJP to Badal Jr. is destroying Modi wave in the region.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by IndraD »

digvj to fight Modi in varanasi as per teetar
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Shanmukh »

munna wrote: c) Gurdaspur: Vinod Khanna may win but Salaria (backed by Shanta Kumar, Kamal Sharma and Joshi) will be given the ticket.
Which Joshi, Munna-ji?
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by munna »

nageshks wrote:
munna wrote: c) Gurdaspur: Vinod Khanna may win but Salaria (backed by Shanta Kumar, Kamal Sharma and Joshi) will be given the ticket.
Which Joshi, Munna-ji?
The spotlessly clean and intellectually brilliant minister of BJP from Amritsar who attacked Sidhu (gathbandhan dharma you see) and is himself under scrutiny from EC.

EC Files Criminal Complaint Against Joshi
In a major embarrassment for the BJP ahead of Lok Sabha elections, its Punjab minister Anil Joshi has been indicted by the Election Commission for electoral fraud. The commission on Tuesday filed a criminal complaint against the Punjab local bodies and medical education minister and his eight family members for enrolling as voters at more than one place. The complaint also accused him of making false declarations at the time of contesting the 2012 Punjab assembly elections.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by muraliravi »

Munna ji and Patil's analysis have reinforced by biggest worry for BJP, North India (JK, Punjab, Himachal, UTT, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi).

The one state, they have managed well among these is Uttarakhand.

JK-2, Punjab-3, Himachal - 4, Haryana - 8, Chandigarh -1, Delhi -7 all together account for 25. BJP should have ideally won 18/25 here, but based on tickets, sabotage, AAP nonsense, I see only 1+1+2+3+0+3=10 seats AT BEST.

JK is touch and go in both seats. Himachal does get me worried. Shantha Kumar will have a tough time with Sushant Rajan on AAP ticket splitting BJP votes, Virendra Kashyap faces good deal of anti-incumbency in his seat. Mandi is anyway impossible. Anurag Thakur will pull of the lone seat, so it may be just one seat there. Haryana, they should pull of 3 seats. Chandigarh, congress will win for sure. While in delhi, BJP has done its best, certain things are beyond their control. Three cornered fights are never going to help BJP. So they may very well just get 1 in HP, 1 in Punjab, 3 in Haryana, 2 in Delhi, making it just 7/25 (no point crying EVM foul later, this is the real situation).

So North India, including Uttaranchal may shock us with 12/30 seats. BJP may get 12 seats from (Jharkhand, Assam, Arunachal, Orissa), 11 in Karnataka, 1 in Goa, 2-3 in remaining UT's and some 1-2 seats here and there owing to sheer Modi wave. Takes to a best situation of 40 seats.

To hit 200, BJP needs to be firing on all cylinders from MH, RJ, GJ, MP, Chhattisgarh, UP and Bihar and get 160 seats from these states.

BJP will contest 78 in UP (ETV just flashed saying that a deal with Apnal Dal has been reached and they will get 2 seats) and 30 in Bihar. In UP and Bihar after all the tickets are decided, they will land around 52/108 seats (35-40 in UP and 15-20 in Bihar).

So they need 108 seats from MH (22), RJ (25), GJ (26), MP (29) and CH (11): total 113 seats.

That is asking for too much, almost need every seat from GJ, RJ, MP to compensate for the loss of 1-2 seats in CH and 4-5 in MH.

Those 10 seats in North India could have really helped hit 200 much more easily. Now pressure is back on UP and the western bastions.
Last edited by muraliravi on 19 Mar 2014 18:40, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Yagnasri »

Azaruddin does not have a leg to stand in Hyderabad wherein everyone knows that he is D gang betting fellow. A person kicked out of Indian team for involvement with D gang is said to be close to Pappu and instrumental in making KKR as CM of AP because both played cricket together. ( One more reason said to the conversion of KKR family in the Christianity) This speaks of the disgusting levels to with INC reached.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by RajeshA »

IndraD wrote:digvj to fight Modi in varanasi as per teetar
So Priyanka said no to all Congressis who thought that Priyanka taking on NaMo would inject some life into Congress. Unlike Rae Bareli and Amethi, Varanasi would be new territory for the Dynasty and not sufficiently worked upon.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Shanmukh »

muraliravi wrote:Munna ji and Patil's analysis have reinforced by biggest worry for BJP, North India (JK, Punjab, Himachal, UTT, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi).

The one state, they have managed well among these is Uttarakhand.

JK-2, Punjab-3, Himachal - 4, Haryana - 8, Chandigarh -1, Delhi -7 all together account for 25. BJP should have ideally won 18/25 here, but based on tickets, sabotage, AAP nonsense, I see only 1+1+2+3+0+3=10 seats.

These 8 seats are going to prove costly. Imagine 172 instead of 180.
MuraliRavi-ji,
I disagree with Praveen Patil's analysis of Haryana. Not sure about other states, but after Sushi Auntie's tantrum against Venod Sharma, what the BJP has done is the best job possible. They have done a decent job. Sidhu was never interested in Kurukshetra, and anyway, Kurukshetra is a seat BJP has never won at any time in the past. Also, HJC is rather weak in the Kurukshetra region, so unless Modi wave brings some 25% swing to BJP, it is not going to win that seat. Sonepat and Rohtak are Hooda's home turf. He will win from there, BJP or no BJP. That leaves the other 7 seats, and they have done a good job in the seats allotted to them.

Also, I disagree with Praveen Patil's analysis about Jammu. It is not possible to field 2 Rajput candidates, given that both Cong. and BJP depend on Brahmins and Rajputs for their votes in Jammu region. BJP list had to have 1 Rajput, 1 Brahmin. Cold caste analysis and the BJP fielded best possible candidates, under that constraint. Armchair pundits waxing eloquent on Twitter that if their caste is not given 500 seats, the BJP will be wiped out should be ignored.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by ramana »

Narayana Rao wrote:Azaruddin does not have a leg to stand in Hyderabad wherein everyone knows that he is D gang betting fellow. A person kicked out of Indian team for involvement with D gang is said to be close to Pappu and instrumental in making KKR as CM of AP because both played cricket together. ( One more reason said to the conversion of KKR family in the Christianity) This speaks of the disgusting levels to with INC reached.

Don't forget his goonda gardi during the AP divison vote in Lok Sabha.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by muraliravi »

nageshks wrote:
MuraliRavi-ji,
I disagree with Praveen Patil's analysis of Haryana. Not sure about other states, but after Sushi Auntie's tantrum against Venod Sharma, what the BJP has done is the best job possible. They have done a decent job. Sidhu was never interested in Kurukshetra, and anyway, Kurukshetra is a seat BJP has never won at any time in the past. Also, HJC is rather weak in the Kurukshetra region, so unless Modi wave brings some 25% swing to BJP, it is not going to win that seat. Sonepat and Rohtak are Hooda's home turf. He will win from there, BJP or no BJP. That leaves the other 7 seats, and they have done a good job in the seats allotted to them.

Also, I disagree with Praveen Patil's analysis about Jammu. It is not possible to field 2 Rajput candidates, given that both Cong. and BJP depend on Brahmins and Rajputs for their votes in Jammu region. BJP list had to have 1 Rajput, 1 Brahmin. Cold caste analysis and the BJP fielded best possible candidates, under that constraint. Armchair pundits waxing eloquent on Twitter that if their caste is not given 500 seats, the BJP will be wiped out should be ignored.
Nagesh ji,

I agree that they have probably done their best. Same in Delhi too (they have done their best). At best, they have screwed up couple of seats due to their own mistakes. But in end whether it is their mistake or not, BJP will ultimately not do very well in this zone. This puts extraordinary pressure on them to pull of miracles in Western India and the hindi heartland.

Do you really see any chance of them hitting 15-16 seats in KA?
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Shanmukh »

muraliravi wrote: Do you really see any chance of them hitting 15-16 seats in KA?
I will write up an analysis of the BJP chances in Karnataka tonight and post it on my wordpress page. But 15 is the maximum I dare hope for this time. More likely to be in the 10-12 range. Or maybe I don't dare hope for too much after too many disappointments.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Comer »

http://www.loksatta.org/cms/documents/2 ... iances.pdf

Jayaprakash Narayan has put out a document outlining the thinking process on pre poll alliances. Reading between the lines and the lines as well, looks like he is edging towards BJP.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Muppalla »

nageshks wrote:Also, I disagree with Praveen Patil's analysis about Jammu. It is not possible to field 2 Rajput candidates, given that both Cong. and BJP depend on Brahmins and Rajputs for their votes in Jammu region. BJP list had to have 1 Rajput, 1 Brahmin. Cold caste analysis and the BJP fielded best possible candidates, under that constraint. Armchair pundits waxing eloquent on Twitter that if their caste is not given 500 seats, the BJP will be wiped out should be ignored.

+100

Same thing related to Jats representation. There are certain cold calculations. OBCs are more loyal than Jats for BJP. Jats have multiple platforms such as RLD, SP, INC but OBCs has just one and that is BJP. BJP did such cold calculations.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by muraliravi »

Muppalla wrote:
nageshks wrote:Also, I disagree with Praveen Patil's analysis about Jammu. It is not possible to field 2 Rajput candidates, given that both Cong. and BJP depend on Brahmins and Rajputs for their votes in Jammu region. BJP list had to have 1 Rajput, 1 Brahmin. Cold caste analysis and the BJP fielded best possible candidates, under that constraint. Armchair pundits waxing eloquent on Twitter that if their caste is not given 500 seats, the BJP will be wiped out should be ignored.

+100

Same thing related to Jats representation. There are certain cold calculations. OBCs are more loyal than Jats for BJP. Jats have multiple platforms such as RLD, SP, INC but OBCs has just one and that is BJP. BJP did such cold calculations.
True, we need not make a big deal out of candidate selection, it is important, but not by any means the only determining factor. It is probably 40% important especially when BJP is riding on a wave. There maybe some seats here and there, and of course no party can satisfy everyone in seat allotment. All the parties will have their share of rebels. The only issue, is that BJP being a cadre based party will suffer a little more.

But in any event, I was never a proponent of this 200+ theory. They will be lucky to get 190+.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Sagrawal »

just heard that Hema malini will contest from Mathura loksabha seat. Sure shot to get it back from Congress.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by fanne »

MR Ji,
I would assume bjp being a cadre based party will suffer less
Due to ticket denied. Except for the near group of an unsTisfied
Leader the rest of their caste cader will vote bjp
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by muraliravi »

fanne wrote:MR Ji,
I would assume bjp being a cadre based party will suffer less
Due to ticket denied. Except for the near group of an unsTisfied
Leader the rest of their caste cader will vote bjp
Fanne ji,

I thought congress can control rebels better as it is a high command based party and since they get votes from mai-baap rishta and default votes. While in BJP each leader brings in some votes, and if one rebels, they lose that.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Rahul Mehta »

muraliravi wrote:I thought congress can control rebels better as it is a high command based party and since they get votes from mai-baap rishta and default votes. While in BJP each leader brings in some votes, and if one rebels, they lose that.
Disputes in Congress get resolved by controllers appointed by MNC-owners. Each leader in Congress is now Indian kings were after 1860 . None has any strength left. So when they fight, they take matter to angrez, who resolve it amicably. And so there is no infighting. The MNC-owners are now the real high command in congress.

In BJP, leaders have their own base as well as own connections in media, IAS, IPS, judiciary etc. So fight becomes real and bitter, and comes in open.

Also, MNC-paid-media writes more about infighting of BJP than congress.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by fanne »

No, look at what leaders that left bjp got - Kalyan, uma, madanlal
Khurana. Agreed this is against someone like yedi!!
In Hindi belt their impact is less ( do not know less enough to impact a seat or not).
Thanks
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