Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

bhavani · Post by **bhavani** » 20 Mar 2014 23:06

In Andhra a grand alliance seems to be emerging against Congress. Pawan kalyan met Naidu secretly yesterday and is now flying to Ahmadabad to meet Modi

http://deccan-journal.com/content/pawan-flies-ahmedabad

In Telangana Congress is going to fight alone in a threeway fight involving TRS and TDP+BJP+Jana Sena Alliance. It is surprising how the whole situation has turned against Congress.

In fact sonia is the most inept leader who has destroyed Congress in a state which has been more loyal to it than any other state. what ever has happened has happened for the good of Telugu People. Finally will be ridden of parasite Congress.

member_28108 · Post by **member_28108** » 20 Mar 2014 23:08

gandharva wrote:Yuvraj's rally in Dharamshala

Where is this ?

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 20 Mar 2014 23:09

^^^^
That was Himachal

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 20 Mar 2014 23:12

bhavani wrote:In Andhra a grand alliance seems to be emerging against Congress. Pawan kalyan met Naidu secretly yesterday and is now flying to Ahmadabad to meet Modi

http://deccan-journal.com/content/pawan-flies-ahmedabad

In Telangana Congress is going to fight alone in a threeway fight involving TRS and TDP+BJP+Jana Sena Alliance. It is surprising how the whole situation has turned against Congress.

In fact sonia is the most inept leader who has destroyed Congress in a state which has been more loyal to it than any other state. what ever has happened has happened for the good of Telugu People. Finally will be ridden of parasite Congress.

May be that is her goal.

Foreigner started Congress. Foreigner will destroy Congress.

The only thing she is trying to do is to hand over the nation to leftist traitors and Islamic terrorists and prevent nationalist take over of India

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 20 Mar 2014 23:22

^^^, dont be so sure, I am not so sure if congress will dip below 100. They may in fact touch up to 115 seats if their cards work well and certain close fights go in their favor. If cong has 115 and BJP dips below 175, congress is not going anywhere.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 21 Mar 2014 00:05

Mafia was averaging around 130 with AP MP seats for some elections and 2009 is an aberration with 205. After losing AP now and serious anti incumbency it is not a ruling in any big state alone except KA wherein they have no chance now. So below 100 is quite on cards.

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 21 Mar 2014 00:11

MAFIA needs 10 seats from TN,20+ seats from AP to reach 125

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 21 Mar 2014 00:39

Advani warned take G nagar or leave election aside (abp news)

disha · Post by **disha** » 21 Mar 2014 01:10

muraliravi wrote:^^^, dont be so sure, I am not so sure if congress will dip below 100. They may in fact touch up to 115 seats if their cards work well and certain close fights go in their favor. If cong has 115 and BJP dips below 175, congress is not going anywhere.

Mafia is reduced to Mah, Kar and Kerala. Given that, Mafia is already down to double digits.

In UP/Bihar/Raj/Guj/MP/Delhi., Mafia is nowhere in sight. They are not seen even with telescope. Mafia leaders are getting heartattacks, says something about the current situation.

The question is not how much Mafia can lose? They *will* not cross 115. The question is now how much more NaMo can win from 170 seats?

Virupaksha · Post by **Virupaksha** » 21 Mar 2014 01:16

in gujarat it will win 3-6 seats, same with MP, Rajasthan. In Bihar 1-2. Even Delhi it has a chance. It right now seems to be front runner in haryana, himachal, karnataka, telangana, kerala, punjab.

BJP hasnt been able to create cong version of MNS in those states.

If there is a seat with 45% chance of cong and 55% to other, I will always write it to cong. Its network of get the vote and managing local combinations is legendary and frankly unmatched.

Congress natural seats without any central influence purely based on local factors is around 150. If there is even a slight favorable centre mood, it will touch 200 as it did in 2009. Where as the same thing for bjp is around 110.

There is a reason why congress wants to make every election a local election while bjp wants to make it a presidential one looking towards centre. That is where their natural advantages lie.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 21 Mar 2014 02:12

fanne wrote:yup astute observation!! Hope Mulayam has a similar list

Fanne ji,

I could not find SP's list. But here is my analysis on UP (heavily borrowed from 5forty3, but with lot of my inputs and also for 20 odd seats that he has not analyzed). Please comment on this and people on the ground can feedback. As virupaksha said, see how local factors can decide election. BJP should be happy with 35-40 seats in UP.

disha · Post by **disha** » 21 Mar 2014 02:16

Let us say in the north-west., Mafia will win 6 seats across 6 states on average (Guj/MP/Raj/UP/Bih/Punjab). That is 36 seats.

For the remaining core 40 seats, they have only Karnataka, Kerala and Mah.

That is the core 76 seats Mafia has. After that, to reach at 115, they have to get another 49 seats. From where?

The math is unfavorable to mafia., so much so that if core mafia gets <115., it is wiped out. Since all the regionals, NCP included will be looking to get accomodated into an arrangement who can give a bigger pie of the pizza.

There is a reason why BJP could field a rainbow coalition across TN. If the smaller kazhagams cannot be accommodated under mafia tent/DMK tent or AIADMK tent., where will they go? The smaller kazhagams saw the wave early and jockeyed to get what they could get, knowing their strengths and limitations.

Here is the link from 5forty3 - the aakhri moghul (unlike the telugu movie Aakhri Poratam). Check it out http://5forty3.in/2014/03/05/sonia-gand ... -congress/

Virupaksha · Post by **Virupaksha** » 21 Mar 2014 02:51

disha,

the issue is lack of bjp spread compared to congress. Except for 100 seats from Bihar + uttar pradesh, congress has a chance, atleast a distant chance in all other seats, i.e. congress is contesting seriously contesting for top two positions in around 450 seats.

BJP except for internet hype is nowhere in south, except kar - where it is not expected to put in a good performance. If BJP with all this 5 allies in TN, wins even 2 seats every one will be surprised. I personally expect 0. No one expects BJP to win a single seat in kerala or in the combined AP.
BJP with or without modi wave contests seriously only in gujarat, madhya pradesh, chattisgarh, 60% of uttar pradesh, bihar, delhi, punjab, himachal and haryana around 260 seats.

BJP are expecting 190 seats from those 260. From these 260, you have given 60 seats to congress (minus kerala and half of maha) as the base line estimate for cong.

People are giving to bjp 90-100% seats in rajasthan, guj, mp which I am loathe to give.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 21 Mar 2014 02:55

disha wrote:Let us say in the north-west., Mafia will win 6 seats across 6 states on average (Guj/MP/Raj/UP/Bih/Punjab). That is 36 seats.

For the remaining core 40 seats, they have only Karnataka, Kerala and Mah.

That is the core 76 seats Mafia has. After that, to reach at 115, they have to get another 49 seats. From where?

The math is unfavorable to mafia., so much so that if core mafia gets <115., it is wiped out. Since all the regionals, NCP included will be looking to get accomodated into an arrangement who can give a bigger pie of the pizza.

There is a reason why BJP could field a rainbow coalition across TN. If the smaller kazhagams cannot be accommodated under mafia tent/DMK tent or AIADMK tent., where will they go? The smaller kazhagams saw the wave early and jockeyed to get what they could get, knowing their strengths and limitations.

Here is the link from 5forty3 - the aakhri moghul (unlike the telugu movie Aakhri Poratam). Check it out http://5forty3.in/2014/03/05/sonia-gand ... -congress/

Here are the 44 seats the mafia will get

Assam - 10 (wait for csds survey at end of this month to confirm this)
Other NE states - 4
Orissa - 8 (thanks to BJP for dividing BJD vote)
JK - 1
HP - 2
Haryana - 4
Andhra + Telangana - 7
Lakshadweep + Chandigarh - 2
Delhi - 1 (they will win one seat for sure)
Chhattisgarh - 3
Goa - 1
Jharkhand - 1 (they would been at 0 if BJP had done a better job with candidates there, especially ranchi)

I cant think of 5 more right away.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 21 Mar 2014 03:21

disha wrote: .....
Here is the link from 5forty3 - the aakhri moghul (unlike the telugu movie Aakhri Poratam). Check it out http://5forty3.in/2014/03/05/sonia-gand ... -congress/

The map he has drawn is similar to the one in 1977 after the Emergency where the South that did not see the more extreme excesses of Congress voted for them. Even then Congress got returned from MH, AP, Karantaka and Kerala.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 21 Mar 2014 03:32

kapilrdave wrote:
SwamyG wrote:It is fascinating to read how RSS can control BJP this much? Is this really true, or just eggsperts and MSM creation? I mean what hold does RSS really have on a political party? And why would politicians listen to RSS ?
Saar, till RSS was backing the IAC 'movement', it pulled crowds from all over the country for anna. When the plug was pulled out we saw what happened to his rally with didi. Farji managed to build some cadre for himself in dilli but it short lived. Ramdev is nothing without RSS support. Shankarsinh Vaghela tried to build his own organization parallel to Sangh but it fizzled out before it flies. No one who has opposed RSS in BJP has survived politically. Either they have to come back or get vanished. RSS is unparalleled in its organizational ability. And that is because there are some serious brains working at the top.

Saar, I have heard about its organizational abilities. I am not questioning any of it. I wonder how can a non-political organization - that does both the work of think-tank and grass-root level services, influence BJP. One hears from media that the top dogs of BJP ultimately end up listening to RSS. As an aam admi, one hears/reads about the RSS chief, the rest of the leaders are all no-names. Except for the hard core RSS followers or news junkies, RSS leadership/matrix is invisible. So how does this organization control BJP?

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 21 Mar 2014 03:44

svenkat wrote:For me,politics is about strongly held opinions/values.In TN,I find DMDK,MDMK,PMK to be fringe rabble rousers not parties with deep roots or strongly held convictions.In Punjab,Akalis have 'credibility'.In Bihar,the BJP has credibility.But in TN,I think none of the parties in NDA seem credible.Ofcourse,these are subjective opinions and if feelings expressed by saravanaji,Gusji,Javeeji are anything to go by maybe TN BJP has finally turned the corner.Theres nothing called permanence in politics.

True to large extent. I might dislike the politics of MuKa, and the way he runs the party as a family. But he is one of those older generation politicians who had some ideology to begin with. We might disagree with that ideology, but they articulated those ideologies and worked towards achieving political power. After MGR broke away and he won elections, politics changed. Is there any major difference in the way DMK or AIADMK function in terms of ideologies/policies? Not much. Because, the parties were controlled by a few at the top.

All cine actors, coming from different castes, utilized their fan clubs to become politicians. Some of these people used their caste/community backgrounds to further their chances. They very well could have opinions, but policies based on ideologies? They are all ====== onlee.

I did find Anbumani Ramdoss, as a Health Minister, a little refreshing, because of his fight against Cigarettes - I appreciated him going against the cine industry regarding that. One needs that kind of "madness" or "zeal".

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 21 Mar 2014 05:19

SwamyG wrote:Saar, I have heard about its organizational abilities. I am not questioning any of it. I wonder how can a non-political organization - that does both the work of think-tank and grass-root level services, influence BJP. One hears from media that the top dogs of BJP ultimately end up listening to RSS. As an aam admi, one hears/reads about the RSS chief, the rest of the leaders are all no-names. Except for the hard core RSS followers or news junkies, RSS leadership/matrix is invisible. So how does this organization control BJP?

That is because it is RSS workers who work as foot soldiers of the election campaign of BJP candidates. Without them, few BJP candidates will have an electoral organization that can get them elected. For example, without RSS volunteers, someone like MM Joshi would not get even a dozen people to canvass for him door to door. That is why he agreed to change his seat from Varanasi to Kanpur when RSS asked him to.

Ashok Sarraff · Post by **Ashok Sarraff** » 21 Mar 2014 05:37

Also, all BJP top leaders are swayamsevaks first and BJP leaders later, and that includes LKA.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 21 Mar 2014 06:08

Folks,
Of the seats the BJP has got in TN, the BJP has got Thanjavur. I am not aware of any BJP strength in Thanjavur. Is there something I am missing here? Has the BJP got any special reason to try its luck Thanjavur? Can anyone background the constituency, anyway - its demographic profile, voters interests, local issues, etc? Also, IJK, which is contesting on BJP symbol has got Perambalur. Is there any advantage for them to contest Perambalur?

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 21 Mar 2014 06:14

muraliravi wrote: Here are the 44 seats the mafia will get

Assam - 10 (wait for csds survey at end of this month to confirm this)

MuraliRavi-ji,
This is one state where I have doubts about your analysis. I am not sure how the Congress expects to get 10 seats in Assam. The AUDF is going to win Karimganj, Dhubri, and possibly even Barpeta (all three are minority dominated). The Congress is not even in the reckoning in Kokrajhar. Are you giving all the 10 remaining seats to the Congress?
.

Orissa - 8 (thanks to BJP for dividing BJD vote)

Orissa Congress is disintegrating big time. Its MLAs are all jumping to BJD en masse (some are even going to BJP). Do you still think the Congress can get 8?

debadutta · Post by **debadutta** » 21 Mar 2014 06:28

nageshks wrote:
muraliravi wrote: Here are the 44 seats the mafia will get

Assam - 10 (wait for csds survey at end of this month to confirm this)
MuraliRavi-ji,
This is one state where I have doubts about your analysis. I am not sure how the Congress expects to get 10 seats in Assam. The AUDF is going to win Karimganj, Dhubri, and possibly even Barpeta (all three are minority dominated). The Congress is not even in the reckoning in Kokrajhar. Are you giving all the 10 remaining seats to the Congress?
.
Orissa - 8 (thanks to BJP for dividing BJD vote)
Orissa Congress is disintegrating big time. Its MLAs are all jumping to BJD en masse (some are even going to BJP). Do you still think the Congress can get 8?

Exactly . Con leaders are jumping ship left right and centre , most to BJD and some to BJP. No way are they going to win 8 seats. They have lost ground in their western odisha strongholds . Almost all leaders from JMM (which is strong in some parts of western odisha ) have jumped ship to BJD.
So 8 seems too high for Congress.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 21 Mar 2014 06:31

Just in - disenchantment with ticket distribution among Yadavas in Bihar and UP. Some well deserved (in their opinion) yadav leaders did not get nomination from BJP. Yadav drift going away from BJP. I have heard other complaints from specific seats - the CT is Rajnath is trying to shaft Namo so that seats are not high and he has his chances!!

archan · Post by **archan** » 21 Mar 2014 06:54

If everyone is shafting their candidate then what good is the party..

niran · Post by **niran** » 21 Mar 2014 07:12

fanne wrote:Just in - disenchantment with ticket distribution among Yadavas in Bihar and UP. Some well deserved (in their opinion) yadav leaders did not get nomination from BJP. Yadav drift going away from BJP. I have heard other complaints from specific seats - the CT is Rajnath is trying to shaft Namo so that seats are not high and he has his chances!!

yadavs were never bjp voters rajnath Singh onree chance of ministry such
as deputy pm or home minister or coal comes onree from NaMo winning handsomely and he among
the most cunning politician one would come across so he knows this.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 21 Mar 2014 07:20

Kakkaji wrote:
SwamyG wrote:Saar, I have heard about its organizational abilities. I am not questioning any of it. I wonder how can a non-political organization - that does both the work of think-tank and grass-root level services, influence BJP. One hears from media that the top dogs of BJP ultimately end up listening to RSS. As an aam admi, one hears/reads about the RSS chief, the rest of the leaders are all no-names. Except for the hard core RSS followers or news junkies, RSS leadership/matrix is invisible. So how does this organization control BJP?
That is because it is RSS workers who work as foot soldiers of the election campaign of BJP candidates. Without them, few BJP candidates will have an electoral organization that can get them elected. For example, without RSS volunteers, someone like MM Joshi would not get even a dozen people to canvass for him door to door. That is why he agreed to change his seat from Varanasi to Kanpur when RSS asked him to.

If that is the case why doesn't it do this proactively? Granted there is always takleef among candidates and supporters, and it only makes sense for some of it to be churned and vented; yet time and time again BJP has scored self-goals.

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 21 Mar 2014 09:01

fanne wrote:Just in - disenchantment with ticket distribution among Yadavas in Bihar and UP. Some well deserved (in their opinion) yadav leaders did not get nomination from BJP. Yadav drift going away from BJP. I have heard other complaints from specific seats - the CT is Rajnath is trying to shaft Namo so that seats are not high and he has his chances!!

Yadavs should first vote for minimum 2 elections to BJP before expecting anything in return. They r almost "Lottaized", another 10-15 years under Mulayam and they r lost.

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 21 Mar 2014 09:06

There was talk of Sunny Deol contesting on Akali ticket from ludhiana in punjab. why has that died away. sunny himself not interested?

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 21 Mar 2014 10:01

RSS ticket selection inputs are invaluable, apparently. Karyakartas at all levels are polled and opinions on winnability gathered.

Granted, not quite a primaries thing, but still, grassroots inputs do go into the mix at the candidate selection stage.

Sure, karyakarta wishlists are sometimes unfilfilled - e.g. vidisha karyakartas are anything but enthusiastic about sussma's candidature but what to do only.... but at important, nay crucial turns, their collective will has altered what the sangh itself would otherwise have done. NM's ascension to top dog status within lotus is proof enough of karyakarta prowess pushing bottom up from the grassroots...

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 21 Mar 2014 10:49

Shows which way the wind's blowing in UKD...

>> India Today ‏@IndiaToday 10m
Congress MP Satpal Maharaj resigns from party, may join BJP.
News flash: http://goo.gl/vH4mnO

BTW, will below have any implications for NDA chances in Pune?

>>Niti Central ‏@NitiCentral 17m
Denied Congress ticket, Kalmadi to fight as Independent from Pune http://www.niticentral.com/2014/03/21/d ... 01970.html …

Atri · Post by **Atri** » 21 Mar 2014 10:55

Unless javdekar is fielded, bjp will win pune.

Kalmadi is a very very maldaar party. Many petrol pumps and buildings. And that is just the tip.

kapilrdave · Post by **kapilrdave** » 21 Mar 2014 11:30

SwamyG wrote: If that is the case why doesn't it do this proactively? Granted there is always takleef among candidates and supporters, and it only makes sense for some of it to be churned and vented; yet time and time again BJP has scored self-goals.

That would make RSS itself a political party which it is not. RSS is a hindu nationalist organization. Nothing more nothing less. It breeds nationalists who can contribute to the good of motherland. It supports (albeit passively) the activities of nationalists through its organizational power. But they take utmost care to maintain a safe distance from politics. It never meant to become a political power neither it aspires to become one.

kapilrdave · Post by **kapilrdave** » 21 Mar 2014 11:37

Atri wrote:Unless javdekar is fielded, bjp will win pune.

Kalmadi is a very very maldaar party. Many petrol pumps and buildings. And that is just the tip.

Why javdekar is so unpopular? Any local scams in past?

Atri · Post by **Atri** » 21 Mar 2014 11:45

kapilrdave wrote:
Atri wrote:Unless javdekar is fielded, bjp will win pune.

Kalmadi is a very very maldaar party. Many petrol pumps and buildings. And that is just the tip.
Why javdekar is so unpopular? Any local scams in past?

No no. He is clean. Nothing major. He is not unpopular. He is not popular also. Just that he is not a leader material. Highly intelligent but drags on. Will win from a safe seat and will be a good minister etc. not a sort of person who adds fervor to campaign needed to pull away a congi seat.it will be very tough fight in Pune. Boring fellow.

niran · Post by **niran** » 21 Mar 2014 12:00

I show Siv sena fielding 20 candidates in UP,
why?

Malayappan · Post by **Malayappan** » 21 Mar 2014 12:12

nageshks wrote:Folks,
Of the seats the BJP has got in TN, the BJP has got Thanjavur. I am not aware of any BJP strength in Thanjavur. Is there something I am missing here? Has the BJP got any special reason to try its luck Thanjavur? Can anyone background the constituency, anyway - its demographic profile, voters interests, local issues, etc? Also, IJK, which is contesting on BJP symbol has got Perambalur. Is there any advantage for them to contest Perambalur?

niran wrote:I show Siv sena fielding 20 candidates in UP,
why?

Alliance quid pro quo. Everyone has to have a mix of "possible wins" and "definite losses" Thanjavur certainly is in the second. Assessment is that PMK has the best deal in terms of winnability. If one ignores the hype, TN BJP seems to have focussed on increasing vote contribution in the seats they had identified for a serious effort, as their primary goal (Kanyakumari, Combatore). Secondary being those where they may target to lay a foundation (Ramanathapuram, Chennai South).

Perambalur logic is unclear. My guess is it should relate to caste arithmetic.

Atri · Post by **Atri** » 21 Mar 2014 12:23

niran wrote:I show Siv sena fielding 20 candidates in UP,
why?

They have been doing it since 1996. They also regularly field candidates in gj assembly elections since early 90s. All this is to gain recognition as national party. Naat to worry.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 21 Mar 2014 12:23

Which party of alliance is standing in Chennai Central?

Javee · Post by **Javee** » 21 Mar 2014 12:33

DMDK in Central Chennai.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 21 Mar 2014 13:11

I saw a press conf of the congi in uttarkhand who joined BJP today.
could be a brf lurker going by the indo cheen economic issues and congi failures he was ranting about lol