AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 19 Mar 2014 22:02

ramana wrote:RamaY Tweeted just now to expect AAP to do Maidan andolan at Jantar Mantar soon after elections are over.

What's his twitter handle?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 19 Mar 2014 22:03

Secular Indian!

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 19 Mar 2014 22:25

If PAAP does that they will be beaten black and blue by police and no one will support them. India is not some tin pot arab dung sheep/camel nation.

Virupaksha · Post by **Virupaksha** » 19 Mar 2014 22:29

Rony,

Being personally casteist is different from your network or support base having a majority of one caste. and the effect it has in propelling one.

Caste is the only major card left in the congress quiver in seemandhra. I expect a rabid anti-kamma rhetoric from them and strictly speaking there is fertile ground to exploit such a polarisation.

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 19 Mar 2014 22:52

Virupaksha garu,

Anti-kamma rhetoric was always there. Kammas were the punching bag during the height of communism in 50s and 60s (since many of the commie leaders were Kammas).They were also the punching bag during capitalist days of CBN (since many of the capitalists are also Kammas).They are also the punching bags during the Telangana agitation (since many of the "settlers oppressing" Ts were Kammas). It is not new. The new twist is KCR/TRS wooing the Kammas of Telangana . http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=osw6VMY9Lgw. I have my doubts whether anti-kamma rhetoric will be successful in SA as it is in United AP (largely because of T).

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 20 Mar 2014 00:21

Virupaksha wrote:Rony,

Being personally casteist is different from your network or support base having a majority of one caste. and the effect it has in propelling one.

Caste is the only major card left in the congress quiver in seemandhra. I expect a rabid anti-kamma rhetoric from them and strictly speaking there is fertile ground to exploit such a polarisation.

For this round, this will not work. Except for hard core Reddys+EJs, no one is thinking on caste lines. The bifurcation has changed the scenario a lot. A wave for TDP is getting built in AP. Patience and perserverance will build TDP again in TG. A lot may call CBN as fool but his insistence of preserving the party seems to be paying off.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 20 Mar 2014 00:31

Muppalla wrote: For this round, this will not work. Except for hard core Reddys+EJs, no one is thinking on caste lines. The bifurcation has changed the scenario a lot. A wave for TDP is getting built in AP. Patience and perserverance will build TDP again in TG. A lot may call CBN as fool but his insistence of preserving the party seems to be paying off.

Muppalla-ji,
The TDP needs to project a leader in TG fast. They are losing MLAs and ground level cadres to TRS. If the BJP-TDP-Pawan Kalyan-JP combination acts fast, it can cut the power of TRS and decimate the Congress. But the TDP has a leadership crisis in TG and Naidu's insistence on remote controlling the party in TG may not help them. The TDP CM of TG will be equal to CBN and that is something CBN will have to learn to live with, if he wants to preserve the party in TG.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 20 Mar 2014 01:05

nageshks wrote:The TDP CM of TG will be equal to CBN and that is something CBN will have to learn to live with, if he wants to preserve the party in TG.

Most probably TDP would not be providing the CM in TG in this round. But may be in 2019. By then CBN can project himself as a national leader of the party, and put up another CM in Seemandhra too.

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 20 Mar 2014 01:13

TDP may not have announced the T-CM officially but it already gave enough hints that Ryaga Krishnaiah, the current president of Backward class welfare association will be the TDP T-CM candidate.

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 20 Mar 2014 02:42

PP guy is upset with BJP-TDP alliance in TG.

http://www.politicsparty.com/shownews.php?newsid=392

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 20 Mar 2014 02:45

He is ranting and raving. He has his own caste group that he promotes. Y.S. Jagan is the 'savior' per him..

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 20 Mar 2014 04:06

ramana wrote:He is ranting and raving. He has his own caste group that he promotes. Y.S. Jagan is the 'savior' per him..

I never understood this phenomenon. Jagan is more christian than he is a reddy and its patently obvious and yet some reddy's fall for it. The brilliant strategy of samuel reddy and his son is to keep their Hindu names intact officially and give a facade of "hindu-christian" composite culture, going to Tirupati once in a while even while doing everything to undermine Hinduism in the state.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 20 Mar 2014 04:47

Rony wrote:TDP may not have announced the T-CM officially but it already gave enough hints that Ryaga Krishnaiah, the current president of Backward class welfare association will be the TDP T-CM candidate.

Rony-garu,
TDP should make it official, and strike bargains with BJP and Lok Satta party, showing that it is viable. It is bleeding too much to TRS - I suspect that this is precisely what Chicken Reddy wants. If TDP does not take quick steps to stem the bleeding, there will be no TDP left by 2019 in Telangana. I suspect Chicken Reddy wants to destroy TDP and weaken BJP in Telangana. He is a wolf in sheep's clothing. He has done nothing even after Telangana to boost BJP's position.

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 20 Mar 2014 05:58

nageshks garu, Agree that TDP has to project the CM candidate officially. Revanth Reddy is a much better candidate but TDP's BC support means he does not have a chance.Sad really when everything revolves on caste these days.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 20 Mar 2014 06:03

nageshks wrote:
Rony wrote:TDP may not have announced the T-CM officially but it already gave enough hints that Ryaga Krishnaiah, the current president of Backward class welfare association will be the TDP T-CM candidate.
Rony-garu,
TDP should make it official, and strike bargains with BJP and Lok Satta party, showing that it is viable. It is bleeding too much to TRS - I suspect that this is precisely what Chicken Reddy wants. If TDP does not take quick steps to stem the bleeding, there will be no TDP left by 2019 in Telangana. I suspect Chicken Reddy wants to destroy TDP and weaken BJP in Telangana. He is a wolf in sheep's clothing. He has done nothing even after Telangana to boost BJP's position.

They will announce but I don't thing it is super urgent. First let them announce the alliance. Once that clarity comes then everything will settle. First phase of AP elections is TG and then SA. We will know in the week.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 20 Mar 2014 06:19

The central BJP pushing the local to TDP

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 20 Mar 2014 06:23

Rony wrote:The new twist is KCR/TRS wooing the Kammas of Telangana.

They are a powerful political group in T. No surprise there given that there is an alliance between TDP and BJP who will get majority of kamma vote.

bhavani · Post by **bhavani** » 20 Mar 2014 22:17

Sonia seems to be afraid of visiting Seema Andhra. Today i talked to my cousins in Vizianagaram and Vizag and it seems there were groups of youth collecting eggs and tomatoes for pelting at the visiting Congress bus yathra. Things might turn violent. IN fact Vizianagaram saw the most violent protests.

http://deccan-journal.com/content/eggs- ... ss-leaders

http://deccan-journal.com/content/sonia ... hra-people

Abhijit · Post by **Abhijit** » 20 Mar 2014 23:49

I protest the character assassination attempt of ... the donkeys

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 20 Mar 2014 23:56

these people are totally insensitive towards animals and shall be booked for cruelty towards them.

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 21 Mar 2014 09:17

Apologies if already posted.Reports from Telangana-Congressman owned V6 news channel suggests that Errabelli Dayakar Rao, Mothkupalli Narashimhulu and Revanth Reddy likely to quit TDP. Cited reason being CBN refused to allocate president post to Errabelli, Rajyasabha seat to Mothkupalli and Malkajgiri seat to Revanth Reddy. If true, huge setback to TDP in Telangana.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 21 Mar 2014 12:34

http://www.mha.nic.in/sites/upload_file ... 2014_0.pdf

So there is no Seemandhra but Successor States of Andhra Pradesh and Telangana.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 21 Mar 2014 13:36

TDP seems to be offering BJP only 50 MLA seats in whole of AP+TG. On top of that insisting that BJP make room for Pawan Kalyan and Loksatta Party from BJP's quota.

Very tough bargaining going on! BJP+TDP Alliance may not materialize.

It is also possible that BJP may enter into an alliance only with Jana Sena (Pawan Kalyan) & Loksatta Party (Jayaprakash Narayan).

Lok Sabha and Assembly elections together have in fact made seat sharing on one level dependent on the other.

VenkataS · Post by **VenkataS** » 21 Mar 2014 14:01

^
Does BJP realistically expect more than 50 seats in AP and TG. I think 50 is very generous for a party which only won 2 seats in the last elections.

Virupaksha · Post by **Virupaksha** » 21 Mar 2014 14:07

BJP on its own cannot win or even come second in 10 assembly seats combined, where as even today tdp can win 10 seats in telangana and come second in another 25 seats.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 21 Mar 2014 14:22

Virupaksha wrote:BJP on its own cannot win or even come second in 10 assembly seats combined, where as even today tdp can win 10 seats in telangana and come second in another 25 seats.

TDP is bleeding members liberally to the TRS. If they don't show they are a viable party, they will be completely gone in five years (by 2019) in TG. Yes, they may win a few seats this time in TG, but they are degenerating rapidly. On the other hand, the BJP has about 10% of the vote in TG, which it always had, but I can wager you what you like that even in 2019, the BJP will still have the same 10% at least. TDP needs the BJP in TG as much as the BJP needs TDP, if not more. So, the TDP is not in the driver's seat in TG anymore. Remember the fate of the RJD in Jharkhand? They were very powerful in Jharkhand in 2000 elections. What happened after the separation of Jharkhand? How many seats and what share of the vote does the RJD have today? Also, Naidu needs to let go of the party in TG, appoint a leadership and accept the leader of TG as his equal, even if CBN is the first among equals.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 21 Mar 2014 14:39

Sachin Reddy ‏@snsachinnandu 24m
No Qn of BJP settlng fr <45VS+9LS in T & 15VS+3LS in SA wit TDP!
If de do, BJP dont deserv politics, better they run a circus house!
Period!

This seems to a BJP bottom line, plus Pawan Kalyan and Loksatta need to be accommodated separately by TDP.

maitas66 ‏@chinmaykrvd 1h
Lok Satta is asking for 9 Assembly and 2 Lok Sabha seats.genuine demand.@JP_LOKSATTA prefers doing business with BJP wont mind TDP alliance

maitas66 ‏@chinmaykrvd 1h
By Sunday clarity is expected on Jana Sena tie-up.Pavan Kalyan reportedly pressing for 38 seats.That cant be from BJP quota as TDP wants

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 21 Mar 2014 16:59

Attack on Mangalhat BJP Corporator Raja Singh outside Nampally court house.He is a rising star in Hyderabad politics and a MLA aspirant

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 21 Mar 2014 19:22

Gandhinagar: Narendra Modi interacts with Jana Sena founder Pawan Kalyan

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 21 Mar 2014 19:53

RajeshA wrote:Sachin Reddy ‏@snsachinnandu 24m
No Qn of BJP settlng fr <45VS+9LS in T & 15VS+3LS in SA wit TDP!
If de do, BJP dont deserv politics, better they run a circus house!
Period!

This seems to a BJP bottom line, plus Pawan Kalyan and Loksatta need to be accommodated separately by TDP.

maitas66 ‏@chinmaykrvd 1h
Lok Satta is asking for 9 Assembly and 2 Lok Sabha seats.genuine demand.@JP_LOKSATTA prefers doing business with BJP wont mind TDP alliance

maitas66 ‏@chinmaykrvd 1h
By Sunday clarity is expected on Jana Sena tie-up.Pavan Kalyan reportedly pressing for 38 seats.That cant be from BJP quota as TDP wants

All these folks really think BJP has that much on the ground? I seriously doubt it. Over the last decade, they haven't even won a decent Panchayat, municipality or Greater HYD elections. There is no real cadre on ground anywhere. Even if TDP gives in they also have to end up helping at each constituency. Modi factor could help but how much it can help? Elections and coalitions are lot more than emotions.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 21 Mar 2014 19:56

Muppalla wrote: All these folks really think BJP has that much on the ground? I seriously doubt it. Over the last decade, they haven't even won a decent Panchayat, municipality or Greater HYD elections. There is no real cadre on ground anywhere. Even if TDP gives in they also have to end up helping at each constituency. Modi factor could help but how much it can help? Elections and coalitions are lot more than emotions.

Muppalla-garu,
How do you explain 98, then? BJP ended up getting 18% of the vote. BJP was no stronger in 98 than it is now (Replace Mudragada with Pawan Kalyan). I am not for a moment saying that BJP will get 18% of the vote, but it may not be as weak as it was in 09.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 21 Mar 2014 20:07

In 98, BJP tried exactly what it did in KA. You court some caste votes and add ideology as catalyst. It courted Kapus but by 2004 Chiru has spoiled the course.

I am not even talking of 09. I am talking of 2011, 2012 and 2013. I am just talking about Telangana. In Telangana what is its social grouping? They are not even third in 90% of blocks. On Twitter, Sachin Reddy (he is more of TN/KA person), Chinmay is very biased and Bala is too BJP emotional.

If CBN gives in then I think it is a feeling to give-in rather than losing this time by vote splits even if they are less significant. I am okay to get 50% of MP seats but trying of MLA seats to the tune of 60 out of 119 in T will only help TRS and INC unless TDP gives-in and also help using its cadre. In short, TDP has to think that BJP is its own party and work which is kind of over expectation.

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 21 Mar 2014 20:21

Rony wrote:Attack on Mangalhat BJP Corporator Raja Singh outside Nampally court house.He is a rising star in Hyderabad politics and a MLA aspirant

link

He had filed a case against hate speech of MIM terrorist Owaisi in that court.

bhavani · Post by **bhavani** » 21 Mar 2014 20:52

The once mighty have fallen so bad, Chiranjeevi was one guy who was loved by all and crowds were absolutely fantastic at his meetings. Now it has come to people avoiding him.

http://deccan-journal.com/content/no-cr ... ulam-rally

There is a video in there which is showing hoe bad the situation is for Congress

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 21 Mar 2014 21:00

nageshks wrote:
Muppalla wrote: All these folks really think BJP has that much on the ground? I seriously doubt it. Over the last decade, they haven't even won a decent Panchayat, municipality or Greater HYD elections. There is no real cadre on ground anywhere. Even if TDP gives in they also have to end up helping at each constituency. Modi factor could help but how much it can help? Elections and coalitions are lot more than emotions.
Muppalla-garu,
How do you explain 98, then? BJP ended up getting 18% of the vote. BJP was no stronger in 98 than it is now (Replace Mudragada with Pawan Kalyan). I am not for a moment saying that BJP will get 18% of the vote, but it may not be as weak as it was in 09.

Forget about past, it is difficult to replicate that performance (Vajpayee/RJB/BJP effect of 199x). In Seemandhra any seat given to BJP it lose to TDP and win to YSRC. There are a few of BJP leaders who spoke of Seemandhra interests can win but no beyond that.

In T, BJP and TDP winnable seats are crowded and BJP wants those seats that TDP can win in Hyderabad and surrounding districts.

Take for example, Malkajgiri MP constituency. BJP wants it, LSP Jaya Prakash wants to run, TDP Revanth Reddy wants to run. TDP wants to give to somebody else. Many "settlers" want to vote for TDP. Last time Congress won this purely because rest of non-congress was split and non-Congress got 60% voting.

BJP's main pain seems to be Kishan Reddy. I don't know what deal they are working with Gali-YSR-Kishan triangular love story. Probably, Jagan may be giving money for playing spoilsport. Some news somewhere claiming BJP to win 2 MP seats and 20 MLA seats by themselves so no need for alliance. Now for all that bravado, they by themselves are expecting 2 MP seats and wants to give the rest to INC+TRS?

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 21 Mar 2014 21:00

bhavani wrote:The once mighty have fallen so bad, Chiranjeevi was one guy who was loved by all and crowds were absolutely fantastic at his meetings. Now it has come to people avoiding him.

http://deccan-journal.com/content/no-cr ... ulam-rally

There is a video in there which is showing hoe bad the situation is for Congress

Looking at congress is useless. Look at Jagan and someone needs to really cover him as all the media is not at all covering Jagan. The news about his campaign is kind of invisible. Getting from Sakshi is useless.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 21 Mar 2014 21:23

Muppalla wrote:In 98, BJP tried exactly what it did in KA. You court some caste votes and add ideology as catalyst. It courted Kapus but by 2004 Chiru has spoiled the course.

Muppalla-garu,
BJP in Karnataka did not start as a Lingayat caste enterprise. That is a very recent phenomenon, one that has come about after the BJP was established as a powerful entity in its own right for at least 15 years. The caste appeal worked only after the BJP was seen as a possible winning horse. Until then, no caste politics worked (believe me, Yediyurappa tried it in 91 and 94, only to be laughed out by the Lingayats). In Karnataka, the BJP in 1991 on the basis of just the Ram wave (just as it won Secunderabad in AP), and it did not have people to take advantage of the Ram wave, and had to rely on outsiders for that purpose. In 1994, it won only in 2 areas. 1) The communally sensitive areas like the coast, where it already had an excellent RSS base (and Lingayats on the coast are a vanishingly small number). Think of Karnataka's west coast as equivalent to your Greater Hyderabad, just spread out over a couple of districts. Long standing communal dislikes and demographic Muslim invasion from Kerala made it possible for BJP to establish itself on the coast, and Coorg (populated by the Kodavas, invaded by Kerala Muslims - again, Lingayats are a miniscule minority here). The other communally sensitive area was Hubli, which is where the Idgah maidan controversy helped the BJP win (Muslims would not allow the hoisting of the national flag in a public playground because it happened to be in a Muslim locality). 2) Urban areas like Bangalore and Mysore. Here the BJP was helped by the urban middle class, which voted solidly for the BJP. The few rural strongholds (maybe around 5) were dependent purely on local leaders (and even AP has a few small rural BJP strongholds - like Udayagiri in Nellore, and Metpally in Karimnagar, etc).

I am not even talking of 09. I am talking of 2011, 2012 and 2013. I am just talking about Telangana. In Telangana what is its social grouping? They are not even third in 90% of blocks. On Twitter, Sachin Reddy (he is more of TN/KA person), Chinmay is very biased and Bala is too BJP emotional.

If CBN gives in then I think it is a feeling to give-in rather than losing this time by vote splits even if they are less significant. I am okay to get 50% of MP seats but trying of MLA seats to the tune of 60 out of 119 in T will only help TRS and INC unless TDP gives-in and also help using its cadre. In short, TDP has to think that BJP is its own party and work which is kind of over expectation.

I agree with you that Sachin Reddy and Bala are not reliable, and Chinmay is extremely biased (and arrogant too, to boot - try asking him how the BJP can grow in Telangana, and you will see what I mean). But the point is that TDP in Telangana is disintegrating. If CBN does nothing to shore up the party in the region, it will be gone in 5 years. And T-TDP needs a clear leadership and victory path. Brutally put, CBN has more at stake in Telangana (the survival of his party in T) than the BJP does. I agree with you that the T-TDP is an order of magnitude more capable than the BJP in Telangana, but BJP has nothing at stake, and has a captive vote bank of around 10%. Even if BJP does not grow much in the near term in Telangana, it is not going to die as long as communally sensitive areas of Greater Hyderabad remain. The same is just not true for T-TDP. Already its cadres and members are deserting the party for TRS. Do you really believe the T-TDP will remain in existence in 5 years? It is similar to BJP-DMDK alliance. The BJP probably has more vote in TN than Drunkard does. But BJP has a lot more at stake in a LS election, than DMDK does. Hence the surrender of TN BJP to his exorbitant demands.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 21 Mar 2014 21:58

^^^
nageshks ji, in KA in spite of all that Ram waves the time when it crossed the threshold is when it started with social groupings. That never took off for BJP in AP and meanwhile the party got entangled/distracted in state division.

For the current alliance they can lobby hell out of TDP for maximizing the number of LS seats. But lobbying too much for Assembly seats is only making INC-B teams win. Regarding TDP dying down in TG, it could happen as the state grows politically independent. However, one thing will always be there in TG and that is the money of APites. This influence itself will always be there whether you want to call it TDP or with some other name.

Kishen Reddy's issue is not some sellout or anything like that. All he is saying is giving TDP a lease of life in TG means it will be a long haul to occupy its space. Modi does not like to listen saying that we have to win now.

My hunch is that 5 LS in SA, 7LS in TG. Overall 40 assembly seats will be a good deal and win-win. Asking 65 in TG and 40 in SA means TDP will call off the alliance. Worst case they will win SA and lose TG. Even after alliance TG is not any guarantee. But BJP will lose out few good LS seats. It is really BJP's need and as being depicted. TDP could comeback in TG later as sentiment dies out as days progress.

BJP has to build its party and not think there are short cuts like Modi wave etc. They had 10 years with no baggage in TG and still could not get to a place where they can get even third in more than 80% of seats inspite of being on the front for separate TG state.

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 21 Mar 2014 22:35

Mandal is effect of Congress KHAM politics. RJB sort of uniting force in UP over KHAM and Mandal. Same Mandal and KHAM process is going on in Telangana. Whether BJP finds its RJB or not is the question.

After TDP BC and BC CM declaration, the rest of the parties followed. Congress made BCs as PCC chiefs in T and Seemandhra. BJP also declared BC CM. This effect looking T from Hyderabad politics doesn't make sense but it has good effect in places where BJP is meaningless. With Modi effect and Telangana BC issues, TDP and BJP can corner INC+TRS plans of sweeping. Now some are putting obstacles to that alliance so INC+TRS wins Telangana.

BJP should focus on seats they can win than TDP, for example Sec'bad, Mahabubnagar, Nizamabad, etc. TDP can focus on where it can win Malkajgiri, Khammam, etc. I don't see reason why BJP needs to get MLA seats when they themselves can't win single digit for MLAs also.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 21 Mar 2014 22:59

Muppalla wrote:^^^
nageshks ji, in KA in spite of all that Ram waves the time when it crossed the threshold is when it started with social groupings. That never took off for BJP in AP and meanwhile the party got entangled/distracted in state division.

Muppalla-ji,
The BJP had crossed the threshold, and become the principal opposition party in two consecutive Assembly elections before Yediyurappa managed to garner the Lingayat base. This, I guess, is the core of my disagreement with you. The Lingayats first voted en masse for the BJP in 2004. Until 2004, BJP was stronger in Vokkaliga dominated south Karnataka, not in Lingayat dominated north Karnataka. The BJP was the principal opposition since 1994. The BJP got 29% of the vote just due to the Ram wave in 1991. The corresponding vote figure for AP was just short of 10% in 1991 (of course, Rajiv Gandhi death helped blunt the wave in AP). In Assembly 1994, BJP got 18% of the vote in Karnataka (around 80% of the vote was in the Vokkaliga dominated south Karnataka or the coast (which has no Lingayats, almost) - the BJP drew a blank in most Lingayat dominated districts including Raichur, Bagalkot and Belgaum, or a token 1 seat in other Lingayat dominated districts like Bidar, Gulbarga, Bijapur and Bellary). The corresponding figure for AP Assembly in 1994 for the BJP was 4% of the vote. Simply put, the dynamics of AP seem to have refused the BJP. I won't go into an analysis of why this happened in AP, but the fact remains. My point is that caste politics can be effective only when the castes see you a potential winner. In Karnataka, the BJP was seen as a potential winner before Lingayat caste politics of Yediyurappa became effective. In AP, the BJP was always an also ran which no one took seriously. Therein lies the difference, it think.

For the current alliance they can lobby hell out of TDP for maximizing the number of LS seats. But lobbying too much for Assembly seats is only making INC-B teams win. Regarding TDP dying down in TG, it could happen as the state grows politically independent. However, one thing will always be there in TG and that is the money of APites. This influence itself will always be there whether you want to call it TDP or with some other name.

Kishen Reddy's issue is not some sellout or anything like that. All he is saying is giving TDP a lease of life in TG means it will be a long haul to occupy its space. Modi does not like to listen saying that we have to win now.

Yes. This is my principal question which no one has answered to my satisfaction. Why does Kishan Reddy think he can occupy the political space of the TDP, if it dies? Why do people keep claiming `Dead TDP in T==stronger BJP in T'? Why would the mostly BC voters of T find the Reddy Velama (Vidyasagar Rao is a Velama, IIRC) leadership of BJP attractive? If attracting the SA moneyed elite of T is the goal, BJP can just as easily take the Reddy eilte of Jagan (and if Jagan party dies, and NaMo becomes PM), can it not? Similarly in SA, if TDP wins and Jagan party dies (BJP should be able to throw Jagan in prison, turn off the foreign money spigot, and kill his party), BJP should be able to consolidate the Kapus and Reddies with Jagan, should it not? If moneyed elite want a new home, BJP should be able to grow by attracting moneyed elite in erstwhile AP, with just a central BJP government, no? Why is it necessary for TDP to die in T for BJP to grow?

My hunch is that 5 LS in SA, 7LS in TG. Overall 40 assembly seats will be a good deal and win-win. Asking 65 in TG and 40 in SA means TDP will call off the alliance. Worst case they will win SA and lose TG. Even after alliance TG is not any guarantee. But BJP will lose out few good LS seats. It is really BJP's need and as being depicted. TDP could comeback in TG later as sentiment dies out as days progress.

BJP has to build its party and not think there are short cuts like Modi wave etc. They had 10 years with no baggage in TG and still could not get to a place where they can get even third in more than 80% of seats inspite of being on the front for separate TG state.

Well, this is true if the goal is a BJP-TDP alliance, where BJP wants to win maximum LS seats. If you recall my earlier arguments, I have never been for an alliance with the TDP or any other party stronger than BJP in old AP. I have always said that the BJP should use the NaMo wave to give it a leg up in the battle for SA and T. I am of the school that believes that it is more important to win state elections than Central elections. The top down approach of the BJP is the source of a majority of its problems, and why it is not winning in many places where it has a chance. Winning state elections automatically means that BJP has a better chance at the center. From my perspective, BJP winning 30-35% vote on its own in Haryana, Assam, Maharashtra, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, and Jharkhand, 20% of the vote in Tamil Nadu, and Telangana, and 15% of the vote in Kerala, SeemaAndhra, and West Bengal is far more important than the BJP forming the government in 2014 (which, from the looks of it, is going to be unstable as hell, anyway). Others will disagree with me, I am sure.