AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 25 Mar 2014 00:29

Muppalla wrote:[q
TOI is just putting pulp. Jagan has apparently asked for Dalit Christian reservations to be part of NDA. He also does not want pre-poll alliance.

TDP+BJP alliance is good as done. 11LS and 50 Assembly seats between AP and TG is the deal. The final deal will come out in another two three days. Deal will TRS may not happen as he is telling Telangana population to forget Modi-Geedi (just like Punjabi style Shaadi vaadi) and vote for TRS.

Temporary or not, happy or not that may be it for this round.

From horse-mouth on TDP+BJP alliance. TDP is unlikely to give excessive seats for BJP and may demand winability as criteria.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bUozP4Arnns

Pittala Dora speaks on Modi-Geedi. After all the time sitting next to TRS in Andhra abuse and participating in orgy of statue-breakings on tankbund, BJP gets:

I don't care BJP or Modi!
http://www.andhraheadlines.com/state/i_ ... 28864.html

Without TRS winking on some seats, BJP is big ZERO in T

Pithani into TDP is good boost. All castes in Circars are into TDP now. From Jai-Samaikyandra party only one person left to come to TDP and fold the party. i.e. KKR himself.
http://www.andhraheadlines.com/state/lo ... 28829.html

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 25 Mar 2014 00:42

ShyamSP wrote:Pittala Dora speaks on Modi-Geedi. After all the time sitting next to TRS in Andhra abuse and participating in orgy of statue-breakings on tankbund, BJP gets:
I don't care BJP or Modi!
http://www.andhraheadlines.com/state/i_ ... 28864.html. Without TRS winking on some seats, BJP is big ZERO in T

Karma ! What is chicken reddy's response to this ? begging to show some regard towards a BC leader and PM candidate.Pathetic

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 25 Mar 2014 00:52

hanumadu wrote:Nagarjuna campaigning for Congress
http://www.greatandhra.com/viewnews.php ... t=&scat=16

Akkineni Nagarjuna flashed many times on small screen today. The hot news is that he is campaigning for 'Rajiv Arogya Sree', Indiramma Illu and 'Indiramma Pinchan' schemes.

He was seen on NTV and other channels since morning and that turned the heads of many and also led to discussions among all. Nagarjuna earlier campaigned for Lok Satta when it was not a political party. But now for the first time he campaigned for Congress and its schemes.

Let us see what new angles he would show for us.
- See more at: http://www.greatandhra.com/viewnews.php ... W9fmO.dpuf
Nagarjuna has been associated with congress in the past. He is also partners in Maa TV with chiranjeevi, allu aravind and Nimmagadda Prasad. He would be a good addition to BJP if he joins it but he was non committal in the link posted above.

GreatAndhra site is mourning

. It is one of the fronts of Jagan in the cyberworld. Among all the folks Nagarjuna this is kind of not expected. I thought he is too deep into Jagan shite and never expected the U turn.

Those folks who are egoistic-kammas and got direct fights with CBN are now getting into Modi. These are all with INC or Jagan. The idea is always to get to central government but they are all seeing neither congress not Jagan in the next setup. The egos are so big that they cannot go to CBN and hence they will still want to be in the club via central party. My bet is these all will be too much involved in the wheeling-dealing of Telangana state. There will be a lot of dealings-wheelings in the next TG government.

Note: do not just consider these folks as some filmy folks. There are tonnes of industrial including retail investments by these folks.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 25 Mar 2014 00:59

bhavani wrote:Assasudin Owaisi gave warning to pawan kalyan that he will not let his movies be screened in Hyderabad as he supported Modi and BJP. I am not able to decide if the splitting on Andhra will help MIM or in not. Will it help MIM in spreading the jehadi culture.

http://deccan-journal.com/content/mim-threatens-pawan

Once staunch communists(stealthily capitalists) were later capitalists+seculars. Now they are all hindutvavaadis. So where is security for Owaisi. He will be punch bag and with HYD under central security for a while, he is under the Modi's eyes.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 25 Mar 2014 05:13

maitas66 ‏@chinmaykrvd Feb 19
BJP leaders believe their time to rule Telangana has come.There is agreement that @kishanreddybjp should be projected as CM horse

I don't know what T-BJP leaders are drinking, but it seems heavy stuff. Now, I love positive thinking, but when your head is in the clouds, maybe your feet should be on the ground?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 25 Mar 2014 05:14

Sure it a horse and not another beast of burden?

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 25 Mar 2014 06:38

nageshks wrote:
maitas66 ‏@chinmaykrvd Feb 19
BJP leaders believe their time to rule Telangana has come.There is agreement that @kishanreddybjp should be projected as CM horse
I don't know what T-BJP leaders are drinking, but it seems heavy stuff. Now, I love positive thinking, but when your head is in the clouds, maybe your feet should be on the ground?

KishenReddy is saying same thing so many times but he talks about 2019. I don't believe a bit of chinmay.

The reality again from my point of view is there is a cabal that is running through politicians of both AP and TG. This cabal has its tentacles all over and they just don't care who wins but has to support this cabal. It is nothing to do with caste or religions. They definitely don't want CBN getting back.

My long shot thought of Nagarjuna meeting Modi is not about politics but a negotiation on behalf of Jagan. I am not convinced about anything else.

I am not sure how in the world BJP+Jagan can work. TRS+BJP can work if TRS relents.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 25 Mar 2014 06:53

Here is the details about deal. (I will update later with synopsys in English) If someone else has time please do.. thx.

http://www.andhrajyothy.com/node/79020

It is all about negotiations between BJP and TDP. TG BJP definitely does not want to give any lease of life to TDP.

yvijay · Post by **yvijay** » 25 Mar 2014 07:08

IMO atleast in TG, BJP should go alone and try build from scratch. The biggest mistake BJP did was having tie up with TDP in 1999. It was in upswing back then and it completely lost momentum after that.

KJo · Post by **KJo** » 25 Mar 2014 07:15

CONGRESS WILL WIN 20 OUT OF 28 SEATS IN STATE

Says CM Siddharamaiah at MDJA interaction

Chief Minister Siddharamaiah is seen interacting with the scribes at Pathrakarthara Bhavan this morning as MDJA President C.K. Mahendra looks on.

Mysore, Mar. 24 - “The Congress party is set to win at least 18 to 20 seats out of the 28 Lok Sabha constituencies in the State,” declared Chief Minister Siddharamaiah.

Speaking at an interaction organised by Mysore District Journalists’ Association (MDJA) at Patrakartara Bhavan in city this morning, Siddharamaiah said that the achievements of the Congress government in the State and the UPA government led by Congress at the Centre for the past ten years would ensure a majority in the LS for the UPA this time.

Regarding the confusion in selection of candidates for the Lok Sabha election in State, Siddharamaiah said that candidates for 26 seats have been declared and the remaining two will be announced soon.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 25 Mar 2014 07:28

yvijay wrote:IMO atleast in TG, BJP should go alone and try build from scratch. The biggest mistake BJP did was having tie up with TDP in 1999. It was in upswing back then and it completely lost momentum after that.

Agree about your point regarding 99, YVijay-ji. I have long opposed the Alliance of 99. But the greater need is to finish off the Congress splinters. There is a great chance to make entire AP Congress mukt.

In SA, killing Jagan's party off opens a large space for the BJP. With a BJP government in the centre, the BJP can grow into the opposition space. For that purpose, cooperation with the TDP in this election is essential. Once Jagan goes to prison (believe me, just disproportionate assets case is sufficient to see him inside for a looong time), won't the BJP have more space to grow in SA?

In T, can't a BJP TDP alliance destroy or at least, weaken the Congress to the extent that it is reduced to at least 3rd, hopefully the 4th spot? Once the Congress is weakened or reduced to a peripheral spot in both T&SA, can't the BJP consume the carcass of the Congress to grow?

Can you give us an honest estimate of how many seats the BJP can win in this election in T (both Assembly and Lok Sabna) on its own?

My fear is that if the BJP goes after the TDP now, it may strengthen the Congress splinters once more. You have to bend once to raise a bow.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 25 Mar 2014 07:41

yvijay wrote:IMO atleast in TG, BJP should go alone and try build from scratch. The biggest mistake BJP did was having tie up with TDP in 1999. It was in upswing back then and it completely lost momentum after that.

Lost momentum should not take a full decade to get to even an overall 10% vote and that too after supporting Telangana for the entire decade. TG-BJP is always in second fiddle whether it is TDP or TRS. It never tried to get new leaders. Who is one significant new face of TG-BJP that can compete with INC and TRS?

Now it is bringing this argument of not to make mistake of going with TDP only for just one reason. It does not want to look in TG-elite as someone who facilitated Andhras-rule (saamantha rajyam) in post bifurcation. That is the only real honest point and rest is all spin. For that reason, it is willing to allow even INC winning the state instead of helping its central party to get few more seats and also fight to demolish INC from TG.

Added later:
In TG - they definitely have a way now. They can negotiate the hell out of TDP to even 8/9 LS seats. Ditch the TDP after the polls and go alone aggressively. That way you can give run for money to INC in LS elections and take on everyone immediately. Now they are doing nothing and want to stay zero while helping someone else.

Other option is negotiate shit out of TRS and call off completely with TDP on either side.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 25 Mar 2014 07:56

TDP destroyed BJP's rising base due to alliance politics. now, the T-BJP wants to do the same. they are planning more for 2019, or whenever the next round is. they want TDP to not keep interfering and destroying BJP's efforts to build a base.

don't forget: in 1998, when BJP went alone, they got 18% votes in Telangana. after alliance with TDP, they were nowhere.

now, T-BJP and essentially everybody in T who is interested in BJP wants one thing first: sidelining the TDP so that BJP can occupy the opposition with legitimacy.

I have said before: in Telangana the TDP is a redundant front.

Kishan Reddy is playing his role well. He will not last beyond 2017-18 timeframe. even that might be too conservative. he will probably be persuaded to leave soon. there are other more dynamic people. T-Kapus will be a powerful force to reckon with. and there are others within the komati/BC spectrum who are also on the rise. they are more worthy candidates. some are already shining. They will bring their own organizational skills.

important is to ensure that TDP doesn't remain a perennial "telugu vari atma gauravam" nautanki, and actually begin the work of a real ideological-base buildup.

yvijay · Post by **yvijay** » 25 Mar 2014 08:01

nageshks ji, I don't think BJP will occupy the space created by the Jagan's party in SA, at least in the near future, simply because there is no cadre strength to talk about or leaders who started from ground level. It's always leaders who jumped ship from other parties or celebrities. Atleast in TG, you had a Dattatreya, a Vidyasagar, a Bal reddy, a Kishen Reddy, all from Sangh parivar background.
But I also agree with you, that BJP needs as many seats as it gets as these are do or die elections. That's why I'm torn about it, because TG Bjp may also have a reason for opposing the alliance so strongly.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 25 Mar 2014 08:04

In a way, it would be good if Kishan Reddy bungles this election up.

What the T-BJP needs is a jolt to remove the upper crust so that the 2nd rung which grew in 2000's can take over.

Modi needs to put Gadkari or someone in charge and kick out the non performers. KR might be internally persuaded to leave. if he doesn't, he'll be sidelined and new people chosen. it's going to happen.

ideal situation would be if all this could happen before elections, but looks like Modi is going slow in TG and SA. so we will have to wait for elections to wipe out the TG-BJP's top echelons. a purge is necessary.

yvijay · Post by **yvijay** » 25 Mar 2014 08:09

Muppalla wrote: Added later:
In TG - they definitely have a way now. They can negotiate the hell out of TDP to even 8/9 LS seats. Ditch the TDP after the polls and go alone aggressively. That way you can give run for money to INC in LS elections and take on everyone immediately. Now they are doing nothing and want to stay zero while helping someone else.

Other option is negotiate shit out of TRS and call off completely with TDP on either side.

It looks like good idea on the paper. But I don't know whether it works there on the ground.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 25 Mar 2014 08:11

devesh wrote:In a way, it would be good if Kishan Reddy bungles this election up.

What the T-BJP needs is a jolt to remove the upper crust so that the 2nd rung which grew in 2000's can take over.

Modi needs to put Gadkari or someone in charge and kick out the non performers. KR might be internally persuaded to leave. if he doesn't, he'll be sidelined and new people chosen. it's going to happen.

ideal situation would be if all this could happen before elections, but looks like Modi is going slow in TG and SA. so we will have to wait for elections to wipe out the TG-BJP's top echelons. a purge is necessary.

To do this they can just give a pass for now. Let TRS win landslide and that way they can have post-poll with TRS. In one conversation, I suggested this so that they don't need to support TDP but also help in defeating INC. They need to have a strategy where INC does not recover. Another this is they should have tried to trigger exodus from T-INC to BJP aggressively. Something is not right politically with T-BJP.

The real problem in TG is BJP does have ideological vote which will vote to BJP and that does not bring seats and only help the split.

yvijay · Post by **yvijay** » 25 Mar 2014 08:15

One thing I was always perplexed about was, why didn't BJP or even RSS or VHP could not find foot hold in SA ? I don't think even ABVP is that strong at student level. Or am I wrong about it ? Muppala garu or Ramay garu, can you guys provide some gyan on this ?

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 25 Mar 2014 08:25

yvijay wrote:One thing I was always perplexed about was, why didn't BJP or even RSS or VHP could not find foot hold in SA ? I don't think even ABVP is that strong at student level. Or am I wrong about it ? Muppala garu or Ramay garu, can you guys provide some gyan on this ?

This is true. Very simple because RSS, VHP and ABVP are all just Brahmins and very insignificant others. ABVP won bunch of colleges in Vizag, Vijayawada and Guntur. Again these colleges are such as Hindu college, Satavahana, Sarada etc which are run by Brahmin management. Compared to TG, in Andhra there was a time though very little when Brahmins are movers and shakers. The resentment was built and though not open but subtle ways the warrior castes had built an underwater of anti-Brahmin stuff politically.

Politics of BJP were never taken up by either Reddys, Kammas, Kapus or Rajus and velamas in Andhra. They are more into businesses building and hence connected only to power based parties and the cadre. This trickled to colleges as well. Funny thing is for a long time it was SFI/AISF at student level.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 25 Mar 2014 08:25

^^^
the older drive was all about caste based mobilization. the failure of communism/leftism as an ideology has left people with caste as the only fall back. unless something new comes up to glue them, SA will remain with the vacuum entity known as TDP, which is definitely better than INC. but still TDP is only TDP. it will never be anything more. the limitations are obvious.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 25 Mar 2014 09:16

Here is something I never even expected.

Botsa wants to join BJP!

http://www.gulte.com/news/25966/Botsa-t ... ss-for-BJP

Great Gods above! Isn't this guy basically a jumped up thug? All muscle and liquor mafias fuelling his victory?

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 25 Mar 2014 10:19

^^ wow only.

This could just be a rumor but WTH....

>>Bala ‏@Bala406 16h
Famous Comedian in Tollywood, Brahmanandam to join BJP soon!!

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 25 Mar 2014 10:37

Hari Seldon wrote:^^ wow only.

This could just be a rumor but WTH....

>>Bala ‏@Bala406 16h
Famous Comedian in Tollywood, Brahmanandam to join BJP soon!!

Isn't he an EJ, Hari-ji?

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 25 Mar 2014 11:22

^^Is he? Didn't know that. Possible I guess....

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 25 Mar 2014 11:58

nageshks wrote:
Hari Seldon wrote:^^ wow only.

This could just be a rumor but WTH....

>>Bala ‏@Bala406 16h
Famous Comedian in Tollywood, Brahmanandam to join BJP soon!!
Isn't he an EJ, Hari-ji?

No. He is the record-holding comedian, originally a Telugu Lecturer. He is from Muppalla

village in Guntur district

See his son's marriage photo.

http://moviegalleri.net/wp-content/gall ... ca61a5.jpg

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 25 Mar 2014 15:51

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 25 Mar 2014 16:01

maitas66 ‏@chinmaykrvd 1h
Till now results of unanimous MPTC's.Out of 191 unanimous till now in Seemandhra TDP-85,YSRCP-62,Congress-19,BJP-5,Others-20

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 25 Mar 2014 16:05

sometime back he said he was too lazy for politics

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 25 Mar 2014 16:10

ctors Pawan Kalyan, Nagarjuna Akkineni, Junior NTR and Mahesh Babu are making a beeline to meet the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi, Rediff.com's Vicky Nanjappa tells you why

http://www.rediff.com/news/slide-show/l ... 140325.htm

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 25 Mar 2014 18:31

Muppalla, Hats off to your analysis/insight.

Folks Mupalla said BCs will make a beeline for BJP in Andhra region as they need some space and TDP is persona non grata for them. We are seeng two formations in AP from the rout of Congress - TDP and BJP.
BTW M said all this three years ago.

I say TDP is fulfilling the old destiny of pre-Muhammadan rule in Deccan. See Kammas were becoming prominent ruling elite in that era when Tughlaq rudely killed off the Kakatiyas. This was already a two hundred year rise by then.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 25 Mar 2014 18:38

http://www.gulte.com/news/25930/-Congre ... Seemandhra

J.C. Diwaker Reddy joins TDP.

Any of you played old Super Mario where many green blobs all coalese and only two big blobs emerge.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 25 Mar 2014 19:18

By the way here is TDP rally in Mahaboobnagar. It is still live and CBN is yet to speak. A lot of rhetoric by the speakers but important thing is that the crowd size is very huge.

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 25 Mar 2014 19:29

ramana wrote:http://www.gulte.com/news/25930/-Congre ... Seemandhra

J.C. Diwaker Reddy joins TDP.

Any of you played old Super Mario where many green blobs all coalese and only two big blobs emerge.

He gave most of the info out while proposing for Rayala Telangana which he again said it is not his idea. Only thing he hides is who are the movers-and-shakers in Rayala Telangana that asked him to carry on. Even before Congress made decision in last July he was telling Telangana would be given.

Good for him, he and his brother get Ananthapur MP and Tadipatri MLA seat nominations from TDP.

Only issue with them is they had old rivalries against Paritala family. Probably CBN had to balance these rivalries and take political decision as Paritalas come under Hindupur MP consituency while JCs come under Ananthapur MP constituency. TDP may shift Paritala Sunitha from Raptadu MLA segment to Penukonda that her dead husband represented.

This way TDP has good chance of taking both Hindupur and Ananthapur MP seats.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 25 Mar 2014 19:35

I read somewhere the guy who had paritala ravi killed himself got bumped off this week.

dont know if political undercurrent to that.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 25 Mar 2014 19:37

ShayamSP garu, NTV is going to telecast new survey results next week. In spite of exodus of every leader to TDP from INC and also YCP, it seems per the survey leaks Jagan is going to get 136 out of 175

bhavani · Post by **bhavani** » 25 Mar 2014 19:41

Singha wrote:I read somewhere the guy who had paritala ravi killed himself got bumped off this week.

dont know if political undercurrent to that.

The killers said to be behind paritala ravi, got bumped off some time back. Maddelacheruvu suri was murdered by one of his men.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 25 Mar 2014 19:42

I think Jagan will get 225 seats out of 175. I have that survey!!

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 25 Mar 2014 19:50

RajeshA wrote:maitas66 ‏@chinmaykrvd 1h
Till now results of unanimous MPTC's.Out of 191 unanimous till now in Seemandhra TDP-85,YSRCP-62,Congress-19,BJP-5,Others-20

This means that Jagan is very much still in the game inspite of all crossovers to TDP and he can ruin TDP chances in assembly/loksabha elections.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 25 Mar 2014 19:54

Rony, All surveys at this stage are to manage perception. Jagan will be strong in his own areas and not elsewhere. If those surveys are right, then all those politicians who can sense the wind is blowing would jump to his party and not TDP or BJP. So data should be assessed to create information.

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 25 Mar 2014 20:20

TDP rally in Palamooru (secular name is Mehboobnagar) in Telangana. Should surprise many people