Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 27 Mar 2014 04:07

disha, I would love to believe you. However, I cannot write of (P)AAP yet. BJP has made some mistakes that the media is highlighting. AAP also taps into people being sick of corruption (and let us face it the BJP is also tarred with that at times) and the larger issue of a stable and effective government gets lost.

To me AK49 played his hand - "I don't want to be MP -otherwise I would ask for safe seat".
If you don't want to be the MP for a constituency you are betraying everyone by asking them to vote for you.
What AK49 is saying - I don't care about you people of Varanasi. I am just here to destroy Modi.

This is sick.

disha · Post by **disha** » 27 Mar 2014 04:20

Agree that is very sick of Mr. Kejriwal. And note that everybody sees it and only some have the ability to articulate through the anger and others just go #$@^&*(

And the people of Varanasi see that. Not just the people of Varanasi, but several others around see it. Just watch the Anjana Om Kashyap's interview of BHU student., they started raining "missiles" on her from the top floor and she started saying "Ab Varanasi ka yeh chehra bhi dekh lein ..." and within few minutes she packed her bags and turned tail.

In fact I was worried that for her Behtuki bartaav (insolent behaviour) she may get slapped! The students exhibited exemplary self control., while Anjana was pimping AAP.

You are saying AK49 has played his hand., I am saying AAP has already imploded. However it is difficult to prove it since the only real proof is at the hustings. So the 3 seats muraliji has put up for AAP is most likely from the NCR

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 27 Mar 2014 04:33

my wife was watching anjana om kashyap in BHU on aajtak with me, and she pointed that anjana could have had dupatta on salwar-kurta, in crowd of about 2-3000 students, why not be careful, East India any way is a bit conservative society, wife has been a working professional in West since long but felt that one should be sensitive and appropriate to environment. hope I am not politically incorrect. On the other hand anjana chickened out in the evening on rajtilak live when girls thundered Modi for PM louder than boys. Anjana, B Dutt apparently will stay in Banaras for next 30 days, just goes to show how much MSM is investing in AK49

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 27 Mar 2014 04:35

IndraD, how do you see the Varanasi race shaping up ?

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 27 Mar 2014 04:43

There is Modi tsunami warming up in Banaras, he will win very well, people are looking up to Modi to sort banaras out. AK & Digvj are hardly any impact, Mukhtar Ansari is there to show muslims elsewere in UP that SP is muslim champion. Nothing more, a sacrificial lamb.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 27 Mar 2014 04:49

Sanjay, We will get on the spot reports from niran from next week once he recovers from his hospital visit. He is in Varanasi as a BJP volunteer just as he did for the Patna rally by Modi.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 27 Mar 2014 04:51

But the poll did not support suggestions that Indians have rejected hereditary candidates. Instead, 46 per cent of voters said they preferred politicians who hail from dynasties.

"What we found was kind of shocking," said Milan Vaishnav, an associate at the Carnegie Endowment's South Asia programme.

"Nearly one in two Indians say, if I had a choice, I would prefer to vote for a candidate who has a family background," he said.

The vast majority of voters who preferred dynasties said they thought such candidates would be more adept or likely to succeed, with only 15 per cent saying that their main motivation was an expectation of patronage.

Twenty-nine per cent of Indian lawmakers elected in the last election in 2009 succeeded family members or have relatives also serving in Parliament, a figure that rose by nine per centage points from the previous vote in 2004, Vaishnav said.

The survey, conducted with the University of Pennsylvania's Center for the Advanced Study of India, took opinions from 65,000 households as part of a project that will examine changing trends.

When asked about voting preferences in late 2013, 31 per cent sided with the BJP-led alliance and 23 preferred the Congress-led coalition, in what would amount to a reversal of fortunes since the last election.

India likes dynasty politics as per US
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home ... 747373.cms?

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 27 Mar 2014 04:52

ramana wrote:Sanjay, We will get on the spot reports from niran from next week once he recovers from his hospital visit. He is in Varanasi as a BJP volunteer just as he did for the Patna rally by Modi.

mujhpe pe 1 paisa bhi aitbaar nahi aapko?

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 27 Mar 2014 04:54

Ramana, this is the best chance for a while for the BJP. I just worry about:

(1) Peaking too soon
(2) Infighting
(3) Bad candidate selection
(4) Complacency
(5) Inadequate ground campaigning and voter mobilization

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 27 Mar 2014 05:03

IndraD wrote:
ramana wrote:Sanjay, We will get on the spot reports from niran from next week once he recovers from his hospital visit. He is in Varanasi as a BJP volunteer just as he did for the Patna rally by Modi.
mujhpe pe 1 paisa bhi aitbaar nahi aapko?

No. Not like that. By your own post you said you were watching TV in massa! So I said lets wait for ground reports.

Waise bhi apke vichar kya hain?

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 27 Mar 2014 05:51

TIFWIW... but hey, a guy can dream, can't he??

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 27 Mar 2014 06:40

Vinodh Mehta tells Arnab that the 'jollahwallh brigade' has won in Congress. He emphasizes that the leftists from NAC has got their say in the Manifesto

. What is happening, why is everybody dissing poor Congress.

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 27 Mar 2014 06:50

guys! Teetar says Uma Bharathi against Sonia in Raebareli and Baba ramdev with 50000 volunteers will help her

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 27 Mar 2014 07:34

President returns files on appointments to IITs, varsities

http://indianexpress.com/article/india/ ... varsities/

svenkat · Post by **svenkat** » 27 Mar 2014 07:41

http://indianexpress.com/article/india/gujarat/out-in-print-how-narendra-the-boy-picked-up-a-crocodile/

One story shows four schoolboys beating up a fifth. Narendra outwits them by spraying ink on the backs of their shirts and telling the principal how to identify the bullies.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 27 Mar 2014 07:58

SRoy wrote:^^

So that NDA 219 vs UPA3 153+97 (plus some spares from remaining 74).

Its game over for NDA even before it begun, going by this score.

That is like Congress loses about 147 seats from 2009, and BJP gets only 25 out of that

? So where is the Tsunamo then?

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 27 Mar 2014 08:05

SwamyG wrote:
SRoy wrote:^^

So that NDA 219 vs UPA3 153+97 (plus some spares from remaining 74).

Its game over for NDA even before it begun, going by this score.
That is like Congress loses about 147 seats from 2009, and BJP gets only 25 out of that ? So where is the Tsunamo then?

All this nda, upa3 confuses things. Simple cong down from 205 to 115, down 90. Bjp up from 116 to 184, up by 68. Cong loses in ap, tn etc.. Which bjp does not gain, while bjp makes some gains from non cong areas like bihar, parts of up.

Rest of the gain and loss is direct bjp vs cong areas. If you think bjp gaining 68-70 seats is not tsunamo, ur expectations are very high. I have mentioned many times that i just dont believe bjp can cross 200 seats. They should be very happy if they hit 190+

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 27 Mar 2014 08:17

Murali:
Precisely. With all the scams/corruption, destroying of institutions, setting the country backward, denying military advancements, dividing and ruling people, inflation itaydi; BJP and other parties should simply get those seats being lost by Congress. So if there was a TsuNamo, then BJP should get 250 on its own. If BJP gets less than 250+ on its own, then I would deem there was no Modi wave. It took Modi to bring BJP close to 190 which is a shame. BJP should not need Modi, but Advani should have been enough to come this far. BJP tookula tongnum.

Or looking it from another angle, it took Pandavas to have Krishna on their side to win Kauravas. And even Krishna could not save all the Pandava alliances and family. At the end of the war, barely a few were left standing. And even Krishna had to invite a curse for his role.

Which leads to the conclusion that Kaurangress is such powerful force that it takes Modi to bring it to its knees.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 27 Mar 2014 08:24

vivek.rao wrote:guys! Teetar says Uma Bharathi against Sonia in Raebareli and Baba ramdev with 50000 volunteers will help her

http://www.prabhatkhabar.com/news/10134 ... arati.html

रायबरेली में कांग्रेस को कडी टक्कर देने की कोशिश में भाजपा रायबरेली से सोनिया गांधी के खिलाफ फायरब्रांड हिन्दुत्व नेता उमा भारती को चुनावी मैदान में उतारने पर विचार कर रही है.

पार्टी के शीर्ष सूत्रों ने पुष्टि की है कि दल उमा भारती को झांसी के बजाए उत्तर प्रदेश के रायबरेली से चुनाव लडाने के प्रस्ताव पर ‘‘गंभीरता से विचार’’ कर रहा है. भाजपा ने पहले ही उमा भारती के झांसी सीट से लडने की घोषणा की है. सूत्रों का कहना है कि भारती के रायबरेली से चुनाव लडने पर कांग्रेस अध्यक्ष को कडी चुनौती दी जा सकेगी.

The gist: BJP is seriously considering to challenge Sonia by proposing Uma Barati to contest in Rae Barelli. BJP is thinking about moving her from Jhansi to Rae Barelli.

योगगुरु बाबा रामदेव ने भी रायबरेली से उमा भारती की उम्मीदवारी का समर्थन करते हुए इस संबंध में पार्टी के शीर्ष नेतृत्व से अनुरोध किया है. उन्होंने ट्वीट किया था, ‘‘मैं भाजपा से अपील करता हूं कि वह अपनी मजबूत नेता उमा भारती को रायबरेली में सोनिया गांधी के खिलाफ उतारे.’’ पार्टी सूत्रों ने पुष्टि की है कि रामदेव ने उमा भारती की उम्मीदवारी के संबंध में भाजपा के शीर्ष नेताओं से बातचीत की है.

Baba Ramdev is in touch with BJP leaders and is suggesting BJP to unleash Uma on Sonia.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 27 Mar 2014 09:25

SwamyG, At 190 its still a tsuNaMo for with LKA it would be at best 100.

member_20317 · Post by **member_20317** » 27 Mar 2014 09:33

BJP may or may not cross 200 this time but 5 years of NaMo will certainly root out all the confusing mass of opposition and the following General elections will see a pre poll NDA, easily cross the majority mark. Sometime back there was a predictions thread. I had predicted that RaGa will never be PM.

Rahul ji aap aage badhiye hum aap ke piche hain........

kumarn · Post by **kumarn** » 27 Mar 2014 10:26

Sanjay wrote:IndraD, how do you see the Varanasi race shaping up ?

i asked a close relative the same question and her reply was that even her 4 year old son runs around shouting "abki baar modi sarkar".

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 27 Mar 2014 10:33

In 1977 Mrs Gandhi got defeated in Rae Bareli. So what are chances for the current Mrs Gandhi?

niran · Post by **niran** » 27 Mar 2014 10:51

ramana wrote:In 1977 Mrs Gandhi got defeated in Rae Bareli. So what are chances for the current Mrs Gandhi?

currently it is 60/40 in favor of Mrs Gandhi but who knows Youma Bharti with 50000 Bhagwa volunteers canvassing it could force Mrs. G to contest from Chikmanglure

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 27 Mar 2014 10:55

niran, In the graph posted by vivek.rao, what groups will consolidate with Umaji?

Manu · Post by **Manu** » 27 Mar 2014 10:57

SwamyG wrote:Vinodh Mehta tells Arnab that the 'jollahwallh brigade' has won in Congress. He emphasizes that the leftists from NAC has got their say in the Manifesto . What is happening, why is everybody dissing poor Congress.

What he's actually saying is that the Gallant Rahul Gandhi has not been able to convince the Old Guard about Socialist/Leftist policies and overruling his Mommy on denying ticket to Ashok Chavan, even though he may have tried very hard. Just giving his hero the benefit of doubt.

V Mehta will sell his mother to make sure UPA III is a reality.

Congress is not over, by a long shot.

Comer · Post by **Comer** » 27 Mar 2014 11:17

SwamyG wrote:Murali:
Precisely. With all the scams/corruption, destroying of institutions, setting the country backward, denying military advancements, dividing and ruling people, inflation itaydi; BJP and other parties should simply get those seats being lost by Congress. So if there was a TsuNamo, then BJP should get 250 on its own. If BJP gets less than 250+ on its own, then I would deem there was no Modi wave. It took Modi to bring BJP close to 190 which is a shame. BJP should not need Modi, but Advani should have been enough to come this far. BJP tookula tongnum.

Or looking it from another angle, it took Pandavas to have Krishna on their side to win Kauravas. And even Krishna could not save all the Pandava alliances and family. At the end of the war, barely a few were left standing. And even Krishna had to invite a curse for his role.

Which leads to the conclusion that Kaurangress is such powerful force that it take Modi to bring it to its knees.

SwamyG, I think it bears repeating. Just rewind back to a time before NaMo coronation and look at the pick of the lot in BJP top leadership

IMHO last 10 years BJP lost a major chance to show up as a credible alternative. Central leadership substituted fiery speeches in LS/RS for actual work. Instead they were comfortable in the opposition and let in screwballs like AAP steal their turf.
Apart from a few people like Kirit Somayya, what has BJP unearthed(apart from cash for votes scam, that was botched up). I consider myself as relatively active in reading news but if I can't remember on top of my head what was BJP doing, I can't fault others who dont' show much interest. A sobering conversation with a bunch of friends made me realise many people don't follow news on a day to day basis, one guy doesn't even know Radia tapes episode. How can BJP reach him? Even today I hardly see any activity from BJP where I live. Am voting BJP because it will indirectly help NaMo. The local MLA is MIA and the MP candidate leaves a lot to be desired.
One NaMo doesn't make a summer. He is doing what he could do in the time given to him, even that was denied and postponed for a long time due to tantrums and shenanigans. This should have been done, wishful thinking, right after 2009 debacle. I keep hearing how NaMo captured the imagination of people in TN anecdotally and in survey after survey and yet there is no party there to use that wave. Hindu Munnani does the most field work whereas the BJP ~~guys~~ leaders are moving around in their spotless veshtis.
This elections should factor in a lot of institutional inertia and hope he grasps the mantle and show people what he is capable of and return with higher number of seats next time. If the internal sabotage works and NaMo doesn't become PM and somebody else *ahem* becomes PM then I am hoping to find a new party to support before the next election roles around. This bait and switch would be too cruel.
Saar, please don't bring in the hypothetical situation of Mr. Advani and co leading the charge one more time. I don't want to imagine PM Kejriwal

niran · Post by **niran** » 27 Mar 2014 11:19

ramana wrote:niran, In the graph posted by vivek.rao, what groups will consolidate with Umaji?

except yadavs and
Muslims all others can be turned around to support NaMo
thakurs except those in Pratapgarh are firmly behind NaMo
Brahmins work in progress currently all Brahmin sarpanchs and few rich Brahmins support NaMo
yadavs will vote mullu or whoever mullu says the rest have been firmly behind Namo
the real challenge is to push these voters to haul ass and vote or else it can be like 2009
where at least 29 UP seats were lost.

merlin · Post by **merlin** » 27 Mar 2014 12:05

ramana wrote:SwamyG, At 190 its still a tsuNaMo for with LKA it would be at best 100.

Too generous. It will be a sub-100 party. Modi has added at least a 100 more seats to the BJP tally going by current trends and without EVM magic or other dirty tricks.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 27 Mar 2014 12:09

under LKA and SS stewardship, BJP was heading to 50 in 2014 for sure.

and into oblivion and fracturing by 2019.

Arunkumar · Post by **Arunkumar** » 27 Mar 2014 12:54

Singha wrote:under LKA and SS stewardship, BJP was heading to 50 in 2014 for sure.

and into oblivion and fracturing by 2019.

gulp!!! Not to mention other horrendous prospects for India. Delhi Durbar!

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 27 Mar 2014 12:57

niran wrote:
ramana wrote:niran, In the graph posted by vivek.rao, what groups will consolidate with Umaji?
except yadavs and
Muslims all others can be turned around to support NaMo
thakurs except those in Pratapgarh are firmly behind NaMo
Brahmins work in progress currently all Brahmin sarpanchs and few rich Brahmins support NaMo
yadavs will vote mullu or whoever mullu says the rest have been firmly behind Namo
the real challenge is to push these voters to haul ass and vote or else it can be like 2009
where at least 29 UP seats were lost.

Only Mulayam or SP is not contesting from Rae Bareli, and he would hardly be having rallies there in support of Sonia Gandhi. Their agreement goes only as far as not putting up rival candidates in Rae Bareli and Amethi, but not as far as canvassing for the other party.

So Yadavs too should be vulnerable to Uma's charms!

Also Baba Ramdev has promised to canvass for Uma in Rae Bareli with 50,000 folllowers, and Yadavs do respond to him.

In Rae Bareli Yadav votebank can be captured.

Also since Apna Dal is now in NDA, Anupriya Patel can be asked to campaign there for BJP and get the Kurmi votes.

Uma Bharti is herself a Lodh and if supported by Kalyan Singh, should easily get the Lodh vote for her.

And I guess the Telis would all vote for NaMo anyway.

niran · Post by **niran** » 27 Mar 2014 13:04

^^^^ that's a possibility, but Youma needs to contest and Baba Ramdev need to fulfil his promise.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 27 Mar 2014 13:29

^^Twitter rumor mill says its smriti irani who may be asked to contest in rae bareilly. Looks plausible also. Uma's already a candidate in a seat (Jhansi) where she's strong and can influence neighboring 2-3 seats too. Why upset that applecart.

This was also precisely the reason I was unhappy about the bhagalpur ticket to shahnawaz. It forced ashwini chaubey to move to buxar, denied lalmuni a ticket and has caused avoidable rebellion, IMO.

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 27 Mar 2014 13:41

Retweeted by Mamtaニガム
Kirron Kher ‏@KirronKherBJP 17m

Thank you. @imranimtiaz: @AnupamPkher Sir you and @KirronKherBJP are equally loved in Pakistan. We pray for ur election success.”

unwanted tweet ????

kapilrdave · Post by **kapilrdave** » 27 Mar 2014 13:42

Wow! This thread has been a real roller-coaster. Sometimes Bjp getting 350 and sometimes 175. Kabhi khushi kabhi gam. Gives heart attack both ways

. It will be a test of the character of nation too. A genuine man doing his very best to spread the message of all aspect upliftment of people. The ball is in people's court now. Let's see if they rise to the occasion. Let's see if we deserve democracy or not. Let's see if we can break the prison cage that we are carrying with us.

And for swarg's sake, please stop this discussion of whether Modi will win Varanasi or not. It is a waste of time, bandwidth, eyes and mind.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 27 Mar 2014 14:30

I don't know, Smriti Irani just doesn't feel right for Rae Bareli. I think we need somebody out there with the dehati touch, a daughter of the soil. Uma Bharati is the right choice!

niran · Post by **niran** » 27 Mar 2014 14:55

RajeshA wrote:I don't know, Smriti Irani just doesn't feel right for Rae Bareli. I think we need somebody out there with the dehati touch, a daughter of the soil. Uma Bharati is the right choice!

there is a reason why bjp still see it as 60/40 in favor of congress 17% of the voters are married females above 30 years of age, this substantial group weilds mucho influence over who should get the family votes, Irani still have the good daughter in law image she can break this still unbreakable group.

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 27 Mar 2014 15:44

Smriti Irani for Amethi and Uma Bharti for Sonia

Comer · Post by **Comer** » 27 Mar 2014 17:16

^^ Is this confirmed. It is awesome if it is true.