Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 27 Mar 2014 17:17

Times Now reported the possibility of Smriti in Amethi. The final decision on Uma and Smriti to be taken by NaMo.

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 27 Mar 2014 17:32

^^^Uma Bharati is already contesting from Jhansi. Rae Bareli Janata will not buy into this. They could make an exception for Modi though.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 27 Mar 2014 18:02

Swamy Sir,

BJP getting 250 would entail a lot more than just a tsunamo. It needs work for at least 10 years in shoring up bases in orissa, haryana, Telangana, TN, Parts of Bengal, Western Maharashtra. It is not as easy as you think. Just a Modi wave will not get them there.

In 1998 with 57 seats in undivided UP, they could still only make 180 odd seats. What has changed since then? They have not grown anywhere except in KA. Where are you expecting 250 seats from?? In fact to even cross 200, they need 95% strike rate in their bastions in Western India. All this 27/29 in MP, 10/11 in CH, 24/25 in RJ, 26/26 in GJ looks good on paper. Does not work that wave with any wave u have. There will always be some seats lost. In GJ, I will be happy if they actually pull off 22/26. Central GJ still has some cong stronghold seats despite 12 years of Modi led BJP govt. The cong still has 35-40% vote there. What does that tell you?

This is one of the research orgs that I have found to be very detailed: http://peoplespulse.in/pdf/reports/Dali ... s-2014.pdf

This was done during AAP peak and jnu types like to prop up AAP. But read between the lines and the take info you want. There are large sections of india that are still wedded to congress (when they say, not enamored by Modi, at least 75% of those will vote for cong). As long as minorities vote enmasse for cong and there is huge section of hindus who love freebies and entitlement based governance, cong is not going anywhere for all the tsunamis you unleash.

Then there are other issues like congress stronghold seats in these BJP bastions like Guna etc..

Then there is always sabotage by useless allies and insiders, for example here is the latest bad news from Maharashtra

http://www.dnaindia.com/mumbai/report-c ... ix-1972531

I hate to be the one who is dishing out bad news, but someone has to do it. We ignore all this type of news and listen to what we want to listen and then live in our own cuckoo land of 200, 220 etc.. Then when results come out we will cry EVM EVM, Sushma, 160 gang, D4 and then have pages of threads for it.

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 27 Mar 2014 18:11

muraliravi, good and cogent points that need to be appreciated. A wave builds momentum. It does not compensate for no organization in whole areas of the country where the BJP has minimal presence and for the inevitable problems that emerge.

What helps win seats is organization, ground-work, planning and effective voter contact and mobilization.

To expect all of that to emerge in 250 seats is unrealistic.

The news from Maharastra is to be expected.

geeth · Post by **geeth** » 27 Mar 2014 19:18

What helps win seats is organization, ground-work, planning and effective voter contact and mobilization.

How did V.P Singh bocome PM then? To an extent cadres help..if aided by a wave, even beggars would become MPs..Janta would vote against the incumbant just to teach them a lesson
If there is no scientific rigging, it is NDA all the way..

UP, BIHAR,MP,GUJ,RAJ,CH,JH,UK,HP,HRYANA,PUNJAB
..(NDA)-45,25,25,25,23,9,10,5,3,7,9-TOTAL-186. REST ANYBODY'S GUESS

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 27 Mar 2014 20:27

I heard someone named Ansari will contest 'against' Shri Modi from Varanasi. This dawg is currently in jail for murder, so how is he allowed to contest the election in the first place ?

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 27 Mar 2014 20:36

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>ABP Survey on Delhi: Vote percent of AAP has fell from 55% in Jan to 34% in March. Where as BJP is@32% but Cong has gained from 14% to 28%</p>— Dr. Manish Kumar (@DrManishKumar1) <a href="https://twitter.com/DrManishKumar1/stat ... 592">March 27, 2014</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

See, this is scary. A three way fight again in Delhi. BJP's vote share is just not gaining. Delhi has enuf yuppie voters. BJP cud not have won delhi ever. In fact AAP has helped BJP be single largest party.

LS polls in delhi will be very interesting.

Saral · Post by **Saral** » 27 Mar 2014 20:45

kapilrdave wrote:Wow! This thread has been a real roller-coaster. Sometimes Bjp getting 350 and sometimes 175.

Let me draw a matka number. Geometric mean of 247. That izz my prediction.

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 27 Mar 2014 21:02

Arnab is upset that BJP is putting up a strong candidates against PAPPU and his mommy

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 27 Mar 2014 21:28

KLP Dubey wrote:I heard someone named Ansari will contest 'against' Shri Modi from Varanasi. This dawg is currently in jail for murder, so how is he allowed to contest the election in the first place ?

possibly in remand while being investigated/prosecuted and not incarcerated after conviction?

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 27 Mar 2014 22:11

Statewise Seats Prediction for East India by IBTL India

Bihar – BJP 26 (+14) LJP 4 (+4) RJD 6 (+2) Congress 0 (-2) JDU 4 (-16)

Jharkhand – BJP 10 (+2) Congress 0 (-1) JVM 2 (+1) JMM 1 (-2), Ind 1 (-1)

West Bengal – TMC 26 (+7) Congress 3 (-3) BJP 1 (0) Left Front 12 (-3)

Assam – AIUDF 2 (+1) BJP 6 (+2) Congress 6 (-1)

Arunachal Pradesh – Congress 0 (-2) BJP 2 (+2)

Meghalaya – Congress 1 (0) NPP 1 (+1)

Manipur – Congress 1 (-1) BJP 1 (+1)

Tripura – Left Front 2 (0)

Nagaland – NPF 1 (0)

Sikkim – SDF 1 (0)

Mizoram – Congress 1 (0)

Orissa – BJD 16 (+2) Congress 3 (-3) BJP 2 (+2)

**************************************

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 27 Mar 2014 22:17

RajeshA wrote:Statewise Seats Prediction for East India by IBTL India

Bihar – BJP 26 (+14) LJP 4 (+4) RJD 6 (+2) Congress 0 (-2) JDU 4 (-16)

Jharkhand – BJP 10 (+2) Congress 0 (-1) JVM 2 (+1) JMM 1 (-2), Ind 1 (-1)

West Bengal – TMC 26 (+7) Congress 3 (-3) BJP 1 (0) Left Front 12 (-3)

Assam – AIUDF 2 (+1) BJP 6 (+2) Congress 6 (-1)

Arunachal Pradesh – Congress 0 (-2) BJP 2 (+2)

Meghalaya – Congress 1 (0) NPP 1 (+1)

Manipur – Congress 1 (-1) BJP 1 (+1)

Tripura – Left Front 2 (0)

Nagaland – NPF 1 (0)

Sikkim – SDF 1 (0)

Mizoram – Congress 1 (0)

Orissa – BJD 16 (+2) Congress 3 (-3) BJP 2 (+2)

**************************************

At this rate, IBTL tracker will show BJP at somewhere close to 245 on its own. I think their last tracker in Jan (http://www.ibtl.in/news/exclusive/2120/ ... poll-2014/) put BJP at 225 on its own. Just in Bihar and UP, BJP has gone up by 22 seats on their poll. Counting some losses in Haryana and some gains here and there, BJP should easily hit 245 in their poll this time.

Now, while I am in no mood to believe their numbers, I believe in the trend. So the trend so far is BJP has gained in UP, Bihar and lost some ground in Haryana after seat selection and increased campaigning.

Overall that looks good.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 27 Mar 2014 22:25

muraliravi ji,

They gave BJP 1 in WB and 2 in OR, so it does sound credible.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 27 Mar 2014 22:28

RajeshA wrote:muraliravi ji,

They gave BJP 1 in WB and 2 in OR, so it does sound credible.

Rajesh ji,

I watched some IBTL manthan videos on youtube. Most of the guys who started IBTL are ex IB/RAW folks. Considering the fact that IB still remains the most grounded org in India (it is bad that parties use them fro surveying elections also), they do have some credibility.

Anyway did u notice that the Kushwaha party in Bihar who is getting 3 seats in NDA quota is drawing a blank.

I think they should do something about it to maximize even more.

Santosh · Post by **Santosh** » 27 Mar 2014 22:37

Most of all it validates that ticket distribution has not screwed up their chances, they have not shot themselves in the foot in slog overs and the wave from last couple months is intact. I can sleep peacefully for the coming week and be ready for fever pitch election season. Go NaMo, Bhagwan aapki raksha kare.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 27 Mar 2014 22:38

^^^That is what we must look for the trends in the different polling. Do they all point toward the BJP picking up seats? It remains to be seen. The CSDS survey should be interesting.

Another key factor is voter turnout. The middle class came out the least in the past, and hopefully poll disturbances are kept to a minimum, so these people come out with their families vote in masses.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 27 Mar 2014 22:40

muraliravi ji,

I did notice that no seat was being given to RLSP. I do hope Upendra Kushwaha does get into Lok Sabha.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 27 Mar 2014 22:40

BTW IBTL clarified on twitter that RLSP (kushwaha party in bihar) is fighting on BJP symbol, so their tally is included in the 26 for BJP.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 27 Mar 2014 22:42

So in Bihar, it is 26/33 for BJP.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 27 Mar 2014 22:44

muraliravi ji,

the question is one of momentum - who has the momentum and if the party can keep it up till polling day! If it is with BJP, more votes would keep on coming to BJP. So the tally can go higher.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 27 Mar 2014 22:50

How do you measure momentum?

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 27 Mar 2014 22:51

I think BJP will itself get over 290-300 seats. And add allies. Logic: If polls indicate 60+% Indians want Modi as PM, even a 15% les vote share should logically translate to > 270 seats. Still fail to understand how 60+ % people want Modi will fail to deliver 300 seats. So BJP should get 300 plus seats alone

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 27 Mar 2014 22:52

RajeshA wrote:muraliravi ji,

the question is one of momentum - who has the momentum and if the party can keep it up till polling day! If it is with BJP, more votes would keep on coming to BJP. So the tally can go higher.

I think it is with them. One more thing with polling day is booth management and getting voters to the booths. Modi has made it ample clear that booth mgmt will be very strong this time. We will find out from April 7th itself. I expect voting percentages to be very high (maybe even 80%).

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 27 Mar 2014 23:02

ramana wrote:How do you measure momentum?

This is where the attendance to rallies will point to momentum. For example, I got all messages from friends that RNS had messed up a atleast 20 seats in UP+Bihar. But that should have dampened the spirit of cadre and Modi's Gaya rally should be damp. However, it quite opposite and there is a rush of crowds at the venue. Gaya getting 4.5 lac crowd means the momentum did not drop.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 27 Mar 2014 23:21

Muppalla wrote:
ramana wrote:How do you measure momentum?
This is where the attendance to rallies will point to momentum. For example, I got all messages from friends that RNS had messed up a atleast 20 seats in UP+Bihar. But that should have dampened the spirit of cadre and Modi's Gaya rally should be damp. However, it quite opposite and there is a rush of crowds at the venue. Gaya getting 4.5 lac crowd means the momentum did not drop.

All this RNS messing up 20 seats in just theory from thin air. I dont believe all this even one bit. You may like or dislike the guy, he may have even tried to do it, but no way he could have succeeded. He is just a RSS guy in BJP president chair after NG was kicked out. He was put there by Modi/RSS to just ensure that LKA/SS dont take control of the party. He has absolutely no control whatsoever in 20 seats of UP/Bihar. At best he may have influenced 2-3 seats and that too probably positively. Even his son did not get a ticket.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 27 Mar 2014 23:43

harbans wrote:I think BJP will itself get over 290-300 seats. And add allies. Logic: If polls indicate 60+% Indians want Modi as PM, even a 15% les vote share should logically translate to > 270 seats. Still fail to understand how 60+ % people want Modi will fail to deliver 300 seats. So BJP should get 300 plus seats alone

+1

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 27 Mar 2014 23:45

muraliravi wrote:Swamy Sir,

BJP getting 250 would entail a lot more than just a tsunamo. It needs work for at least 10 years in shoring up bases in orissa, haryana, Telangana, TN, Parts of Bengal, Western Maharashtra. It is not as easy as you think. Just a Modi wave will not get them there.

.....
.....

I hate to be the one who is dishing out bad news, but someone has to do it. We ignore all this type of news and listen to what we want to listen and then live in our own cuckoo land of 200, 220 etc.. Then when results come out we will cry EVM EVM, Sushma, 160 gang, D4 and then have pages of threads for it.

Then we have some disagreement on the terminology/concept understanding. To me in 1984 when INC won 400+ seats is massive. There was a reason for that and could be called a Tsunami. If BJP cannot even win 50% on its own then no point in using hyperbole. I am talking in general, not pointing at you or anyone in BRF. Granted times have changed, and coalition politics are in play, with regional parties in more power. Maybe that is the new norm. Maybe we should accept the norm that a national party will not win more than 250 on its own in the 21st century.

It is not bad news or good news, it is just reality. NaMo has only so much control of BJP, and BJP has only so much influence in India.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 27 Mar 2014 23:51

RamaY wrote:
harbans wrote:I think BJP will itself get over 290-300 seats. And add allies. Logic: If polls indicate 60+% Indians want Modi as PM, even a 15% les vote share should logically translate to > 270 seats. Still fail to understand how 60+ % people want Modi will fail to deliver 300 seats. So BJP should get 300 plus seats alone
+1

me dhothi shivers only because of how BJP is capable of snatching defeat from 100% winnability. There are too many innocents and commoners in the party. I will be so happy if they get 200 seats even when we all say 180. 200 is sufficent to defeat the evil. More if they get won't add or substract their abilities.

member_23365 · Post by **member_23365** » 28 Mar 2014 00:09

Back again after vacation from India,
There is definitely a modi (not BJP) wave even in Haryana. Nageskji has done a good analysis but BJP is a party which can snatch defeat from mouth of victory.First thing they should have allied with Chautalas but neverthless they have blundered big time in ticket distrubution atleast in Haryana. From 6 out of 10 seat which were sure in BJP's kitty nothing is sure right now except for Gurgaon. Rao Inderjit will win easily unless there is EVM magic or some other foul play.
Bhiwani-Mahendergardh : Sudha Yadav was a right candidate and has mobilised the party cadre as well but BJP choose to give ticket to a Congressman Dharamvir. INLD candidate has better chance of winning here Shruti(Con) second and BJP will be third.
Hissar: Though considered a stronghold of Bhajanlal, Kuldeep won last time b'cos of BJP support. BJP votes of traders and urban dwellers have been aapified. Its a triangular contest between Dushyant chautala(grandson of Chautala), Kuldeep Bishnoi(HJK) and Sampat(Con).
Sonipat: Biggest blunder by BJP was done on this seat by denying Pardeep Sangwan a ticket.Sangwan has been poached by Hooda now. Jagbir Malik(Con) has better chances here.

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 28 Mar 2014 00:15

A question: IBTL bunch - how reliable in the past have they been ?

What I am wary of is their pro-BJP position influencing or putting in a bias to their estimates.

I just don't want to be too optimistic - 2004 still gives me nightmares !

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 28 Mar 2014 00:30

Sanjay wrote:A question: IBTL bunch - how reliable in the past have they been ?

What I am wary of is their pro-BJP position influencing or putting in a bias to their estimates.

I just don't want to be too optimistic - 2004 still gives me nightmares !

This is what scares the crap out of me. my 2009 nightmares are still recent. 5forty3.com is amatuer but very conservative. Better to validate using their analysis.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 28 Mar 2014 01:25

IBTL had gotten 4 states poll right last dec

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 28 Mar 2014 02:03

That's good to know. The got Delhi right too ?

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 28 Mar 2014 02:04

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/lok- ... 805229.cms?

con coming back in Delhi with 3 seats at least, EVM magic?

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 28 Mar 2014 02:13

That is not what the article said - BJP is back to 3 from 1, (P)AAP down from 6 to 3 and the Con-artists are up to 1 from 0.

Everything to play for.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 28 Mar 2014 02:17

fanne wrote:IBTL had gotten 4 states poll right last dec

AS Murliravi said earlier, the key is to look for trends and as of now it shows the BJP gaining. Let's see if the CSDS survey and others show the same thing.

I do get the sense that this time around, the BJP's share will be bigger than 1999 when 180+ seats were won. The questions is by how much more? 10, 12, 15, 20% more?

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 28 Mar 2014 02:22

Muthalik to contest from Bangalore South as well

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 28 Mar 2014 02:24

Sanjay wrote:That is not what the article said - BJP is back to 3 from 1, (P)AAP down from 6 to 3 and the Con-artists are up to 1 from 0.

Everything to play for.

seriously PAAP getting 3 seats?? Not possible, I saw Ashutsh being booed and chased by crowd in his constituency, rajmohan gandhi hasn't even started his campaign, I read on toilet every candidate in NCR is C/O Khujli having deserted Delhi

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 28 Mar 2014 02:25

Nice part is that since '98-'99 heydays, so many more areas in the country seem to have been liberated from baleful cong influence only.

Its not just the GV areas - UP, Bihar, WB
or merely the west-central saffron citadel - Guj, MP, Chattisgarh
But the entire eastern seaboard - Odisha, Seemandhra, TN

Sala but for Jaswant and his son's meddling, there was a decent chance lotus could've carried Raj'n state polls in '08 and inched Raj'n closer to becoming cong must. I hope JH, UKD are also firmly set on cong mukt path post 2014. Only.

Remains to be seen how caste realignments in Up_bihar (post-mandal, that is) affect the lohiaite Cong B teams.

As Bji predicted, perhaps the erstwhile commie bastions of WB and KL are ripening for a saffron surge in 2019...

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 28 Mar 2014 02:33

For some reason Uma Bharti and Kalyan Singh, both Lodh Hindutva leaders are not seeing eye to eye. Source.

Pity!