AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 27 Mar 2014 23:01

Muppalla wrote:
RajeshA wrote: Is dashing hero Pawan Kalyan not part of the caravan?
Dashing hero does not not want to dash and split votes. So he wants to be a catalyst. Good for now. I am actaully sick of these movie junkies(good or not).

I think he goes by honorific "Power Star".

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 28 Mar 2014 00:05

ramana wrote:Rony, All surveys at this stage are to manage perception. Jagan will be strong in his own areas and not elsewhere. If those surveys are right, then all those politicians who can sense the wind is blowing would jump to his party and not TDP or BJP. So data should be assessed to create information.

Is it possible that people who are being refused tickets by Jagan are jumping to TDP/BJP. I dont intend to dampen an enthusiasm here, but I am still not able to digest the fact that while we love mainstream surveys showing good seats for BJP in many states, but want to wish away the prospects of TDP actually not doing well in AP.

CSDS Feb 2014:

YSRC: 11-17 TDP: 10-16

CVoter Jan 2014

YSRC 13, TDP 8

CVoter Feb 2014

YSRC: 13 TDP: 10 (9 in Seemandhra and 1 in T)

NDTV Hansa Poll

YSRC: 15 TDP 10 (both get 0 in T, TRS-11, Cong -5, MIM-1 in T)

Leave alone the ABP Nielson poll of feb that gave YSRC 22 and TDP 7 (which obviously means TDP gets 3 in Seemandhra and 4 in T).

The nielson poll may look a bit whacky, but barring that almost every other survey puts YSRC in the 13-15 range and TDP in the 11-12 range.

It is hard for me to believe that they would just make AP a special case and fudge numbers for that state alone. Same is the case that it is hard for psephologists to poll AP, i dont believe that either.

Either we trash the surveys for all states or we accept the reality that Jagan will get a tad higher number of seats than TDP. No point in just selectively believing numbers.

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 28 Mar 2014 00:20

muraliravi wrote:
ramana wrote:Rony, All surveys at this stage are to manage perception. Jagan will be strong in his own areas and not elsewhere. If those surveys are right, then all those politicians who can sense the wind is blowing would jump to his party and not TDP or BJP. So data should be assessed to create information.
Is it possible that people who are being refused tickets by Jagan are jumping to TDP/BJP. I dont intend to dampen an enthusiasm here, but I am still not able to digest the fact that while we love mainstream surveys showing good seats for BJP in many states, but want to wish away the prospects of TDP actually not doing well in AP.

CSDS Feb 2014:

YSRC: 11-17 TDP: 10-16

CVoter Jan 2014

YSRC 13, TDP 8

CVoter Feb 2014

YSRC: 13 TDP: 10 (9 in Seemandhra and 1 in T)

NDTV Hansa Poll

YSRC: 15 TDP 10 (both get 0 in T, TRS-11, Cong -5, MIM-1 in T)

Leave alone the ABP Nielson poll of feb that gave YSRC 22 and TDP 7 (which obviously means TDP gets 3 in Seemandhra and 4 in T).

The nielson poll may look a bit whacky, but barring that almost every other survey puts YSRC in the 13-15 range and TDP in the 11-12 range.

It is hard for me to believe that they would just make AP a special case and fudge numbers for that state alone. Same is the case that it is hard for psephologists to poll AP, i dont believe that either.

Either we trash the surveys for all states or we accept the reality that Jagan will get a tad higher number of seats than TDP. No point in just selectively believing numbers.

C-Voter/India Today, NDTV, ABP Nielson surverys are bogus. C-voter is bogus and India-today disclosed that. NDTV manages Jagan's media business so is clearly bogus. ABP Neilson seems to go with whoever funds them. I don't know CSDS survey and background/shadiness of it. I don't accept surveys of other states/Nation also until survey agencies themselves get credibility.

Having said that I don't believe in UP numbers for BJP also. I see BJP doing well in eastern UP but when it comes to western UP they are going to be killed on vote shares. I don't think BJP cracked that nut yet. My own vague assessment with spreadsheet indicates BJP+close allies getting 170-200 seats at best. With NDA they can reach magic figure however.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 28 Mar 2014 00:24

ShyamSP wrote: My own vague assessment with spreadsheet indicates BJP+close allies getting 170-200 seats at best. With NDA they can reach magic figure however.

I am not yet convinced beyond 180 -190. I guess muraliravi had come to 184 in his assessment.

Do you have an AP only assessment? Assembly wise.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 28 Mar 2014 00:30

Muppalla wrote:
ShyamSP wrote: My own vague assessment with spreadsheet indicates BJP+close allies getting 170-200 seats at best. With NDA they can reach magic figure however.
I am not yet convinced beyond 180 -190. I guess muraliravi had come to 184 in his assessment.

Do you have an AP only assessment? Assembly wise.

I have posted the 184 in the State election thread. In that i assumed only 34 for BJP in UP, which i think is achievable for them even with little yield in western UP.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 28 Mar 2014 02:11

Published on Mar 27, 2014
By Kumar Uttam & Prasad Nichenametla
Alliance in Andhra set to be announced, TDP to contest 25 seats, BJP 17: Hindustan Times

New Delhi/Hyderabad: The BJP is set to announce its alliance with the Telugu Desam Party in Andhra Pradesh within the next week, including the seat-sharing agreement for the Lok Sabha and assembly elections in undivided Andhra to be held simultaneously on April 30 and May 7.

The alliance would also accommodate the Jana Sena Party of Pawan Kalyan, the brother of actor-politician and state tourism minister Chiranjeevi.

The deal may see the TDP letting the BJP contest 11 of the 17 Lok Sabha seats in the Telangana region and 6 of the 25 seats in Seemandhra. The BJP could also get 40 of the 119 assembly seats in Telangana and 15-20 of the 175 in Seemandhra.

In the undivided state, the TDP had 92 MLAs and the BJP 2. The TDP has six Lok Sabha MPs out of the total of 42.

Senior BJP leader Arun Jaitley and Prakash Javadekar, who was recently appointed to oversee the party’s election affairs in Telangana and Seemandhra, have been in talks with the TDP on behalf of the party. Former BJP chief M Venkaiah Naidu had on Wednesday pitched for the alliance to be announced before Ugadi, the Telugu New Year, on March 31.

While in Seemandhra the BJP is willing to let the TDP have the lion’s share of seats to contest, in Telangana, the saffron party is confident of reaping electoral benefits from its support to the law to divide Andhra Pradesh into two entities.

Published on Mar 28, 2014
Make up your mind by today, TDP told: The Hindu

Hyderabad: The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) virtually set a deadline for Telugu Desam to decide by Friday on forging an alliance as seat-sharing talks hit a roadblock again with both the parties sticking to their guns.

Senior BJP leader Prakash Javadekar, who arrived here on Thursday, held another round of talks with TDP leaders -- Sujana Chowdhary and C.M. Ramesh. Telangana BJP president G. Kishan Reddy was also present during the discussions, it is learnt.

The leaders reportedly exchanged notes on the final tally of seats to be contested. The BJP is seeking 45-48 of the 119 Assembly seats and nine of the 17 Lok Sabha seats in Telangana and 25 of the 175 Assembly seats and five of 25 Lok Sabha seats in Seemandhra. But the TDP is firm on not conceding more than 30 Assembly and eight LS seats in Telangana.

The talks faced a fresh hurdle with the BJP insisting on a higher number. The TDP leaders reportedly assured their BJP counterparts that they would place the proposal before TDP president N. Chandrababu Naidu, who was away in Vijayawada, and take a decision.

Accusing the TDP of resorting to “delaying tactics”, a BJP leader told The Hindu that if the Telugu Desam failed to get back to us by Friday, the party central leadership might go ahead and declare the first list of candidates in next couple of days. Mr. Javadekar is scheduled to leave city on Friday.

Meanwhile, the TDP leaders said the BJP’s demands were “unreasonable”. “We are not against giving 25 Assembly seats (plus a couple of them more) in Telangana. It is for the BJP to respond,” a senior TDP leader said.

He said some senior leaders were in touch with Mr. Naidu. “But we are not aware of any deadline being set by the BJP,” he added.

Published on Mar 28, 2014
By C.R. Gowri Shanker
Bharatiya Janata Party options open on alliances in Andhra Pradesh: Deccan Chronicle

Hyderabad: The BJP expects a breakthrough in its alliance with the Telugu Desam Party by Ugadi, Telugu New Year’s day, but is keeping its options open to go it alone in both Telangana and Seemandhra.

“Arun Jaitley and Prakash Javadekar deal with alliance issues. I can only say that we (the BJP) should be prepared for anything. We should be ready to go it alone and if the alliance works out, be ready for adjustments,” MP and BJP Parliamentary Board member M. Venkaiah Naidu said here on Thursday.

Talks on seat adjustments between the Telugu Desam Party and the BJP are continuing, but it has been a slightly bumpy ride. State BJP president G. Kishan Reddy has asserted that the party expects an honourable deal but was not craving for an alliance. While TDP leaders have flayed the BJP earlier, however, a top source in the party told this newspaper that an alliance with the TDP was still possible.

“Alliances should be rational. When two parties meet, they should discuss and prepare for adjustments. I want an honourable solution at the earliest, say by Ugadi. If the alliance is sealed by then, we can make a new beginning in the new year and get down to the campaign,” he said.

The senior BJP leader was here to induct several new entrants, including actors Suresh and Shivaji, ex-MLA Dara Sambaiah, social activist Karuna Gopal, Indra Kumar, grandson of Bapineedu, Kondaiah Naikar, and Vishnuvardhan Reddy, into the party. “The people has decided. Whether there is an alliance or not, one vote will go to Narendra Modi in Telangana and Seemandhra. He is on everybody’s lips,” Mr Naidu claimed.

The BJP, which has firmed up alliances with five political parties in Tamil Nadu, plans to go it alone in Karnataka, and contest in Kerala in its attempt to strengthen its base in the South.

Mr Naidu acknowledged that the BJP was focusing on the South where there are 132 Lok Sabha seats. “Even if we win half the seats, it will be a big boost,” he said. The BJP leader will be addressing 100 rallies during the election campaign and 60 of these will be in the South itself, he said.

Denying rumours that he may contest for an Assembly from the state and head the party here, Mr Naidu joked that the media was trying to bring him down from PM aspirant to finance minister to chief minister. Asked whether former PCC chief Botsa Satyanara-yana was in touch with him, he said, “No.”

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 28 Mar 2014 03:06

TDP, BJP resolve seat-sharing row

HYDERABAD: The BJP-TDP-Loksatta-Jana Sena electoral alliance in the state has been formalized and an announcement on it is likely to be made on Friday or Saturday. As per the seat sharing arrangement finalized by BJP national spokesperson Prakash Javadekar, TDP Rajya Sabha MPs Sujana Chowdhary and CM Ramesh and the Loksatta representative here on Thursday, the TDP will give the BJP 8 Lok Sabha seats and 45 assembly seats in Telangana while Loksatta will contest the Malkajgiri Lok Sabha seat and perhaps three or four assembly seats in the entire state.

In the Seemandhra region, the BJP will contest four Lok Sabha seats and 15 assembly seats. According to sources, a few seats are likely to be allotted to the Jana Sena Party floated by Tollywood actor Pawan Kalyan. The TDP will fight the polls from all the other constituencies in both the regions that have not been allotted to the three parties.

In Telangana, the BJP is to field candidates from Mahabubnagar, Secunderabad, Hyderabad, Medak, Nizamabad, Karimnagar, Mahabubabad and Nagarkurnool Lok Sabha seats. According to sources, candidates from some of the Parliamentary seats like Medak (C Narendranath), Mahabubnagar (N Janardhan Reddy) and Nizamabad (Y Lakshminarayana) have been finalized. The Secunderabad candidate will most likely be state BJP president G Kishan Reddy or Bandaru Dattatreya who has represented the seat on three earlier occasions. From Hyderabad, the BJP-TDP alliance wants to field a formidable candidate against sitting MIM MP Asaduddin Owaisi and the name of film director Ram Gopal Verma is said to be under consideration. Loksatta president Jayaprakash Narayan will be the alliance candidate from Malkajgiri.

In the Seemandhra region, the BJP is to contest the Visakhapatnam, Vijayawada, Tirupati and Kakinada Lok Sabha seats. Former union minister D Purandeswari may be fielded from either Vizag or Vijayawada. Incidentally, the BJP's best performance in Andhra Pradesh was in the 1999 elections when it won 7 of the 8 Lok Sabha seats it contested in alliance with the TDP. In that poll, the TDP had won the Vizag, Vijayawada and Kakinada seats which it has now ceded to the rightwing party while the BJP had emerged victorious in the Tirupati Lok Sabha seat. BJP sources said Pawan Kalyan may be the party candidate for the Kakinada Lok Sabha seat. The BJP had won the Kakinada seat in the 1998 elections.

Confirming the electoral pact, TDP MP C M Ramesh told TOI that the talks were fruitful and the announcement of the alliance was expected to be made any moment. "The talks were cordial and we have arrived at an amicable understanding," he said. Prakash Javadekar initiated the talks with the other alliance partners after landing in the city on Thursday morning and the deal was clinched by the evening.

While the Telangana BJP is happy with the outcome of the seat sharing talks, the Seemandhra unit is seeking more number of seats."We are asking for six Lok Sabha seats and twenty assembly segments. I think it needs a little more consultation," said Seemandhra BJP president Kambampati Haribabu. The minor hiccups still between the four parties are likely to be ironed out by Friday and the announcement of the grand alliance is likely to be made by BJP national president Rajnath Singh in Delhi, party sources said.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 28 Mar 2014 03:08

muraliravi, they have to take a survey after April 3rd in both Telangana and AP. The AP portion will be reliable. The Telangana portion can change by April 10th because I still have doubts that TRS+INC+MIM will happen. There seems to be an SOS from Sonia to T-congress and looking for a secret meeting with TRS.

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 28 Mar 2014 03:33

Looks like a good deal for BJP

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 28 Mar 2014 04:22

In addition to the number of seats they got, BJP & allies are also getting both high profile seats of Malkajgiri and Vijaywada ? Sounds like this time BJP did a tough bargain and TDP conceded.

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 28 Mar 2014 05:00

Rony wrote:In addition to the number of seats they got, BJP & allies are also getting both high profile seats of Malkajgiri and Vijaywada ? Sounds like this time BJP did a tough bargain and TDP conceded.

Vijayawada is for Kesineni of Kesineni Travels. It is announced.

If Secbad goes to BJP, Malkajgiri will not be given.

TOI is gas news.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 28 Mar 2014 05:05

Rony wrote:In addition to the number of seats they got, BJP & allies are also getting both high profile seats of Malkajgiri and Vijaywada ? Sounds like this time BJP did a tough bargain and TDP conceded.

I don't know if this is final. Malkajgiri JP will win.

Vijayawada if it is true, this will be huge heartburn for Kesineni Nani's group and the cadre. They may have spent about 25 to 30 cr in just nurturing the seat. If the BJP person whoever is going to stand does not win and give it to Jagan's man then it will really be a feeling of death. Six months ago, CBN has done extensive padayatra in each galli of the city to defeat the pepperink-spraying-over-talkative-bhagat-singh.

If the above report is true, BJP got most of high profile seats of Andhra's heartland. If they cannot grow from here it will be huge pity. Another thing is there is high potential that Vijayawada could be new capital.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 28 Mar 2014 05:08

ShyamSP wrote: Vijayawada is for Kesineni of Kesineni Travels. It is announced.

If Secbad goes to BJP, Malkajgiri will not be given.

TOI is gas news.

One more thing seems to be under plans. Rajampet seat may go to BJP but the guy is being asked to jump to BJP instead of TDP. Stealthy transfer.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 28 Mar 2014 15:28

maitas66 ‏@chinmaykrvd 4h
TDP-BJP alliance finalised.BJP to get 9 Lok Sabha in Telangana and 6 in Seemandhra

maitas66 ‏@chinmaykrvd 4h
BJP to get Hyderabad,Secunderabad,Karimnagar,Nizamabad,Bhongir,Mahabubnagar,Medak,Nagerkurnool.BJP wants Peddapalli but TDP giving Mahabubad

maitas66 ‏@chinmaykrvd 4h
In Seemandhra out of BJP quota of 6 Lok Sabha seats 2 candidates from Pavan Kalyan Jana Sena will contest informally on

maitas66 ‏@chinmaykrvd 4h
BJP to get Vizag,Tirupathi,Kakinada,Narsapuram,Vijayawada,Rajampet.Pavan Kalyan candidates might contest from Rajampet and Kakinada

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 28 Mar 2014 15:36

Muppalla wrote:Vijayawada if it is true, this will be huge heartburn for Kesineni Nani's group and the cadre. They may have spent about 25 to 30 cr in just nurturing the seat. If the BJP person whoever is going to stand does not win and give it to Jagan's man then it will really be a feeling of death. Six months ago, CBN has done extensive padayatra in each galli of the city to defeat the pepperink-spraying-over-talkative-bhagat-singh.

Easy way out is to adopt jana sena tactics. Let kesineni fight the polls on a lotus ticket and have CBN campaign under the alliance umbrella. Zimble only, no?

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 28 Mar 2014 18:15

TV 9 reporting that Congress and TRS re initiated talks for an alliance in Telangana. Sonia personally want to have a alliance with TRS.Ordered T-congress chief to talk to TRS.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 28 Mar 2014 20:20

Rony wrote:TV 9 reporting that Congress and TRS re initiated talks for an alliance in Telangana. Sonia personally want to have a alliance with TRS.Ordered T-congress chief to talk to TRS.

Now tell me about all these bs surveys. INC is getting 2, TRS 9 and BJP+TDP=5 MIM 1. What is the use for it if it does not go with TRS. Now INC folks will go to BJP or TDP in TG. INC goose is cooked and fried in Telugu lands in one way or other. It will be fluid but if no hara-kiri is committed by TDP/BJP they may win both states in the end.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 28 Mar 2014 21:09

Muppalla wrote: Now tell me about all these bs surveys. INC is getting 2, TRS 9 and BJP+TDP=5 MIM 1. What is the use for it if it does not go with TRS. Now INC folks will go to BJP or TDP in TG. INC goose is cooked and fried in Telugu lands in one way or other. It will be fluid but if no hara-kiri is committed by TDP/BJP they may win both states in the end.

Tathastu! Atulane jarugugaaka!

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 28 Mar 2014 21:16

Muppalla wrote:
Rony wrote:TV 9 reporting that Congress and TRS re initiated talks for an alliance in Telangana. Sonia personally want to have a alliance with TRS.Ordered T-congress chief to talk to TRS.
Now tell me about all these bs surveys. INC is getting 2, TRS 9 and BJP+TDP=5 MIM 1. What is the use for it if it does not go with TRS. Now INC folks will go to BJP or TDP in TG. INC goose is cooked and fried in Telugu lands in one way or other. It will be fluid but if no hara-kiri is committed by TDP/BJP they may win both states in the end.

Looks like PRP-style arrangement (appear as opposite to each other but cut deals behind) is not working. With TDP-BJP deal, INC might be getting cooked. If INC and TRA announce all 117 seats separately, it is great advantage for TDP-BJP deal. TDP+BJP vs INC+TRS will be clean and bipolar fight however. INC has deal with CPI in T that is disadvantage for TDP but they have to choose between CPI/CPM and BJP and can't go with all of them together.

In Seemandhra it is clean and bipolar fight between TDP and YSRCP.

BJP is now directly dealing with CBN bypassing local T leaders who are putting hurdles for deals. This is good progress and there will be some deal soon. BJP should ask 7-8 ( (17 - 1 MIM - 1 JP) / 2 ) which is 50% and leave rest (assebly and Seemandhra) up to what TDP wants to give.
TV9 - Chandrababu discusses TDP BJP tie up with Javadekar
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BMoeWfGqVwc

Now on INC getting cooked. Look at the plight of INC T-leaders. They have to beg in Delhi darbar and not anger Delhi Darbar. They'll see Seemandhra INC leaders who are now proud and don't deal with Delhi INC junk.
Once that dawns on T INC leaders, we'll have some fun in T also.
Who made Diggi Raja angry?
http://www.andhraheadlines.com/state/wh ... 29057.html

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 28 Mar 2014 22:12

^^^^

"We are asking for six Lok Sabha seats and twenty assembly segments. I think it needs a little more consultation," said Seemandhra BJP president Kambampati Haribabu

Any background on this gentleman?

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 28 Mar 2014 22:16

Is it far fetched or too soon to ask CBN to merge TDP into BJP?

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 28 Mar 2014 22:49

matrimc wrote:Is it far fetched or too soon to ask CBN to merge TDP into BJP?

Asking wise we can ask anything. There are some pragmatic and realists who are asking that TDP should give 10 out of 25 in SA as part of the alliance. In TG you know they started with 75 out of 119.

Realistically he will go down fighting but no such thing will happen. The parties have to be built from scratch and there is really no escapism. BJP in TG is always sleeping and blaming the haalaat for their situation. If Congress dies in TG then they can poach a lot out of it. There will be ample amount of opportunities to grow.

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 28 Mar 2014 22:59

In Seemandhra, anything BJP gets is for YSRC to win and NDA to lose. BJP booth-level leaders are no match for TDP or YSRC leaders assuming INC is gone at booth-level. Without ground-level people who can take blows, they will lose the seat. BJP has stigma like INC so it is easy for YSRC to campaign against them to win. So without TDP help, BJP can't win any in Seemandhra.

Realistically, they should negotiate good MP seats in Telangana and try to win those first. Even there they need active support from TDP, except in those constituencies where BJP has ground-level cadre.

TDP is transforming into BC party in Telangana while TRS is Velama party and BJP are INC are vying to be Reddy parties. L.Ramana is likely to be CM candidate.
http://www.eenadu.net/Homeinner.aspx?item=break149

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 28 Mar 2014 23:49

The TDP-BJP alliance should have a good, capable CM nominee in T to take on KCR. BJP should not insist on significant seats in SA where it is very weak but focus on T and look for a substantial chunk of seats there.

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 29 Mar 2014 04:39

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FrKr5K5-PXk

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 29 Mar 2014 22:09

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 29 Mar 2014 22:23

If true bad move.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 29 Mar 2014 22:41

T-BJP does not want the alliance under any circumstances. They don't want to look like someone who have given a lease of life to TDP in Telangana. As I said earlier, they just don't care of INC or KCR winning. Let us see how this goes. In addition BJP not contesting in SA does not make any difference.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 29 Mar 2014 22:43

However, it is not all over. The discussions are still going on and these are mind games too

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 29 Mar 2014 23:26

BJP-TDP- No alliance

The BJP has decided that it will contest the elections in Andhra Pradesh by itself without a tie up with the Telugu Desam Party. The decision comes after the two parties almost came to a conclusion two days back on the seat sharing agreement.
Now the BJP has decided that it wants no tie up and will fight the elections all by itself with the support of Pawan Kalyan who has promised to campaign for the BJP.

For now a final call has been take in the Telangana region but regarding Seema-Andhra the BJP has left it open ended. Telangana BJP chief Kishen Reddy confirmed that in Telangana the BJP will fight the elections alone and there will be no further talks on alliance.

It is the TDP which is now pushing the BJP to ally with it at least in Seema-Andhra. But the local BJP leaders are against a tie up. They feel they stand a better chance if they fight the elections alone since they feel there is a huge Modi wave. However for now the BJP has confirmed that it will have no tie up in Telangana region. Sources however say that the same decision is likely to be taken in Seema-Andhra as well.

The BJP feels that it will perform better if it fights alone and the party has a got a new boost in the form of Pawan Kalyan. The central leadership will take a final call where Seema-Andhra is concerned.

The BJP leadership is of the view that it should leave the matter of alliance open ended. A tie up with the TDP will be bad for them especially in Telangana. In Seema-Andhra Jagan Mohan Reddy seems to be leading the race and if there is a tie up with the TDP he may not support them in a post poll scenario.

http://vickynanjappa.com/2014/03/29/bjp ... -alliance/

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 29 Mar 2014 23:41

What are they smoking?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 29 Mar 2014 23:52

Wouldn't that help TDP in Andhra Pradesh against Jagan? Or vice versa by siphoning the votes from TDP?

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 29 Mar 2014 23:56

ramana wrote:Wouldn't that help TDP in Andhra Pradesh against Jagan? Or vice versa by siphoning the votes from TDP?

In AP there will be no change at all. it will be TDP Vs Jagan. In TG it will be a life line to INC or TRS in places where they are weak.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 30 Mar 2014 00:06

So key is for BJP to not contest in weak areas to enable TDP consolidation. I thought BJP did not have enough candidates in the undivided state!!!

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 30 Mar 2014 03:44

ramana wrote:So key is for BJP to not contest in weak areas to enable TDP consolidation. I thought BJP did not have enough candidates in the undivided state!!!

They don't have candidates anywhere. I don't think they can pull 119 MLA and 19 MP candidates in T. Wherever they stand, they will be defeating TDP.

With this call, if final, they are antagonizing BCs in Telangana.

What happens to NIA-BJP leaders in SA Muppala garu? They can't contest from T-state on BJP candidates.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 30 Mar 2014 04:01

Kishen Reddy wants to commit suicide, at least in this elections, in the hope of building up BJP for the future, but that is a big question, whether under him that would be possible, especially as he could not do till now.

It would be best to remove Kishen Reddy from the scene. Bring him to the center, and let BC take over the state leadership.

NaMo is willing to give Kishen Reddy the long rope, and show how much better he can win in Telangana without TDP. Also in Seemandhra if BJP is not going to get many LS seats to fight on as part of seat sharing arrangement with TDP, then why not allow the local party to try to build itself up, get free-floating Congress people to come and join it.

No matter who wins in Telangana or Seemandhra, NaMo may have come to the conclusion that he can work with any of them. If TRS wins in T, then TRS can join NDA. If YSRCP wins in Seemandhra, then one can always arm-twist Jagan with threat of prison to cooperate. If pre-poll NDA is close to 272, then TRS and YSRCP would come running and be first to give support.

So whoever wins, TRS, YSRCP, TDP, LSP, BJP in Telugu lands, all can be used in coalition building.

If TDP had agreed to a pre-poll alliance, may be BJP+TDP could have maximized their seats.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 30 Mar 2014 04:20

Given current situation, YSRCP & TRS will support any coalition at center, BJP or INC. That accounts for 20-25 MPs based on current surveys.

Can a TDP+BJP alliance win that many? I think it will be 15-20 seats at best from both states.. So it appears BJP is thinking from this angle.

The next question is what about AP & T states? BJP & TDP will/can become the only opposing forces if and only if they can decimate YSRCP & TRS.

Looks like BJP trust levels w.r.t TDP are at the same level as TRS & YSRCP. They view all of them with equal distrust.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 30 Mar 2014 04:26

Kishan Reddy and TBJP leaders thinking that they will be building BJP from 2 seats to 119 is quite hard task. Already there are entrenched Jihadi/naxal/mafia politicos which are more powerful after the division. BJP needs a ramajanmabhumi type agitation there to create a greater base. I do not see any work under any Telugu BJP leader in any Telugu lands. Most do not have reasonable knowledge of things. With such low quality politicos BJP is going to suffer sitting in the sidelines for a long time to come.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 30 Mar 2014 04:43

The BJP candidates in AP will not fly this time if TDP+BJP does not happen in TG. They all have to wait it out for a new election and even Purandareshwari will not win her seat. They do not even have power to split TDP's vote to help Jagan and whatever TDP is giving to BJP is all free for accommodating in TG. Irrespective of TDP's chances in SA the BJP's votes or Modi's aura has ZERO presence in SA. If someone thinks differently they are in fool's paradise.

In TG, BJP is the culprit for "so called " (talks are still going on) breakdown of talks and here are the reasons:
(1) TG-BJP is basically Telangana first and Modi later and that is very obvious. The elite in Telangana think there should be no Seema Andhra based politics in TG as they got independence from the "scoundrels".
(2) TG-BJP does not want this alliance while central BJP is pushing for it. To destroy it they asked for 60 and 11 seats. Then TDP initially agreed for 40 with a fair split of winnable and non-winnable.
(3) Lot of TG folks may not like it but post IT boom, the TWIN cities are all infested with Seema Andhra folks and now suddenly this block is a voting block with no caste divisions thanks to TG separation. The assimilation of SA folks into TG politics will take some time as the wounds are still fresh.
(4) TG-BJP is going to town and telling that there is huge Modi factor and they don't need TDP. If there is an alliance they want Kishen Reddy as CM candidate and 40 winnable seats.
(5) TDP does not want to go with Reddy/Velama as head. They want to play OBC politics only as they see that is the only viable alternative as the elites (Velamas, Reddys) are firmly with TRS and Congress.

While this is building up there are certain interesting things that happened. The movers and shakers that don't want CBN's rise moved their chess moves. The survey and models see a chance of TRS, INC separately with a OBC-PM+CM competition drowns INC. In addition, with TDP's sitting (even in opposition) in TG and SA while Modi sits in Delhi there are several heads that will roll in Telugu lands. Sensing this over the last two days, Sonia has sent emissaries to revive INC+TRS alliance. Jagan's emissaries, plotters and shakers are also strategists of TG-INC. All these are colluding with money transfers to stop the TDP+BJP alliance.

Interestingly while Kishen Reddy declared the "call off ", BJP-central and TG-TDP are still negotiating.

I am sorry, I have very little abilities to predict what will happen. However, one thing I am sure in the current setup, if BJP goes alone it will get 0/42. The only interesting thing that can happen is if TRS+INC is forced by INC-Central, a lot of pissed off folks can join either BJP or TDP and then there could be some traction. However, the nominations start date in 6th April.

Another interesting thing is sensing the loss of MPP, ZPP seats Jagan's friend got (lucky) the ruling from SC to not declare results before May 16th. However, the results of corporation and municipality elections that are underway today (3/30) will be announced on April 2nd. These results if BJP does not win then again the local BJP may be asked to shut up and go with TDP.

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 30 Mar 2014 04:48

RamaY wrote:Looks like BJP trust levels w.r.t TDP are at the same level as TRS & YSRCP. They view all of them with equal distrust.

Its not "BJP's trust levels, its kishen reddy's trust levels or more likely his hatred of TDP because of regional and caste issues.