AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 30 Mar 2014 04:49

I said before that 2014 will be a INC++ sweep in both T and SA. yes, even in SA, TDP by itself will not form the majority. if they do, then it can only mean that they've beaten all the odds and emerged on top. the probability of that happening are lower, IMVHO.

having said that...2014 will kickstart the process that will fulfill real need for both T+SA: a credible long-term base (both elites+commons) who are committed to saffron, AND who will have seen and experienced the battle wounds of the INC++ system.

in Telangana, I will guarantee you that the unfinished process of rebellion against the feudal+Ashraf alliance will renew again. let the TRS come to power. let the old feudals once again unmask themselves in power along with the resurgent dreams of the Islamic elites.

in SA, I see the same process happening, but what worries me is that by nature of geography, the Trade+profits+mercantile/business section of the elites will bribe/coerce their more "traditional" clansmen into submission.

this is how the original idealists of the Communist movement were subverted: by an alliance of regional elites and the INC grouping in Delhi. the military/coercive muscle was used to threaten, and political/profits side was used to bribe. this twin process of using the natural economic/business-mindedness of the Kosta + the armed coercive power of the State, is the single biggest threat to the emergence of a long-term committed Saffron successor to TDP in SA.

also, keep in mind that I am not labeling all elites in a broad generalization: I am saying that the elites themselves will be divided into these groupings (all caste/clans will have these divisions). and whichever section attracts the support of the "center" along with the finance/business power will force the other into submission.

kittigadu · Post by **kittigadu** » 30 Mar 2014 06:06

For once, the BJP is getting it right. Odds are that the 7% remaining TDP vote in Telangana will now
go to the BJP. Mr Naidu expecting the majority of the seats in Telangana for his 7% vote was really too
much. Lesson learned, hope that he behaves better in Andhra or face extinction.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 30 Mar 2014 06:17

kittigadu wrote:For once, the BJP is getting it right. Odds are that the 7% remaining TDP vote in Telangana will now
go to the BJP. Mr Naidu expecting the majority of the seats in Telangana for his 7% vote was really too
much. Lesson learned, hope that he behaves better in Andhra or face extinction.

Why will the remaining TDP vote go to BJP? All TDP members are joining TRS, so why will BJP get the remaining TDP vote? Can't the BCs of TDP, who lived under the Kammas, now live under the Velama doras of TRS?

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 30 Mar 2014 06:38

Don't believe that crap. BJP will get 0 seats in AP if it goes alone

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 30 Mar 2014 07:41

Pause about the deal. It may still happen in couple of days.

However, this is the video from Seemandhra

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ee6YUmLUXU

My apologies for not translating like Rony garu. But important point is at that level of rural areas, there is an important realization:
(1) an semi-literate lady telling that what is the use of free power? We got un-interrupted 7 hr power during CBN but this 5hr free power never comes.
(2) The old man talks about only two leaders (1) CBN and (2) NaMo (it is a surprise for me to hear that name so deeper).
(3) Even at SCs level, they lost belief in Jagan, KKR or congress etc.
(4) The old man is critical of the way the state is divided. Even when we separate families we call 4 elders and talk before separating.

Pretty good video.

kittigadu · Post by **kittigadu** » 30 Mar 2014 08:08

nageshks wrote:
kittigadu wrote:For once, the BJP is getting it right. Odds are that the 7% remaining TDP vote in Telangana will now
go to the BJP. Mr Naidu expecting the majority of the seats in Telangana for his 7% vote was really too
much. Lesson learned, hope that he behaves better in Andhra or face extinction.
Why will the remaining TDP vote go to BJP? All TDP members are joining TRS, so why will BJP get the remaining TDP vote? Can't the BCs of TDP, who lived under the Kammas, now live under the Velama doras of TRS?

That is exactly TRS's weak point, it is a velama feudal entity, just like the TDP (kamma) and YSRCP (Reddy).
If the BJP runs a pro-OBC campaign, they will get between 15-20% of the vote in Telanagana, 2 Lok Sabha seats
and kill the TDP. In my opinion establishing a base in Telangana is more important than winning a couple of more
seats now.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 30 Mar 2014 08:19

kittigadu wrote:
nageshks wrote: Why will the remaining TDP vote go to BJP? All TDP members are joining TRS, so why will BJP get the remaining TDP vote? Can't the BCs of TDP, who lived under the Kammas, now live under the Velama doras of TRS?
That is exactly TRS's weak point, it is a velama feudal entity, just like the TDP (kamma) and YSRCP (Reddy).
If the BJP runs a pro-OBC campaign, they will get between 15-20% of the vote in Telanagana, 2 Lok Sabha seats
and kill the TDP. In my opinion establishing a base in Telangana is more important than winning a couple of more
seats now.

Let us take your analysis further. BJP needs a respectable OBC face for CM, then. Kishan Reddy cannot be that face. Do you really think Bandaru Dattatreya charismatic enough to serve as a CM face? Will Kishan Reddy give up his CM ambitions?

Also, BJP completely lacks organisation in rural Telangana, and the OBCs are not organised as a political entity except under the TDP. OBCs are also very fragmented - they are not one caste and not easily organised as one entity. Also, question of money. Who is going to fund your new OBC organisation entity? All elites are taken (Kammas with TDP, Reddies with YSRCP and Velamas with TRS). Where is the money going to come from?

Finally, an OBC party in Telangana will be anathema for the present elites (both Reddies and Velamas will blow a gasket). Will an OBC party not meet with full organised opposition from all elites?

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 30 Mar 2014 08:21

kittigadu wrote: That is exactly TRS's weak point, it is a velama feudal entity, just like the TDP (kamma) and YSRCP (Reddy).
If the BJP runs a pro-OBC campaign, they will get between 15-20% of the vote in Telanagana, 2 Lok Sabha seats
and kill the TDP. In my opinion establishing a base in Telangana is more important than winning a couple of more
seats now.

That concept is overcrowded for this elections. If you want OBCs to come to BJP just before elections, they'll raise lungis/saris and run to BJP

You should have track record and demonstrated benefits. BJP has nothing to show so far. Only connection is Namo is OBC. OBC is not a monolithic entity to identify with Namo that too he never campaigned on that OBC platform in AP/T.

kittigadu · Post by **kittigadu** » 30 Mar 2014 08:28

ShyamSP wrote:
kittigadu wrote: That is exactly TRS's weak point, it is a velama feudal entity, just like the TDP (kamma) and YSRCP (Reddy).
If the BJP runs a pro-OBC campaign, they will get between 15-20% of the vote in Telanagana, 2 Lok Sabha seats
and kill the TDP. In my opinion establishing a base in Telangana is more important than winning a couple of more
seats now.
That concept is overcrowded for this elections. If you want OBCs to come to BJP just before elections, they'll raise lungis/saris and run to BJP

You should have track record and demonstrated benefits. BJP has nothing to show so far. Only connection is Namo is OBC. OBC is not a monolithic entity to identify with Namo that too he never campaigned on that OBC platform in AP/T.

So what track record does the TDP have in Telangana since 2009 ? Why does the BJP with its higher vote-share have to play second fiddle
to the TDP in Telangana ?

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 30 Mar 2014 08:33

kittigadu wrote:
ShyamSP wrote:That concept is overcrowded for this elections. If you want OBCs to come to BJP just before elections, they'll raise lungis/saris and run to BJP

You should have track record and demonstrated benefits. BJP has nothing to show so far. Only connection is Namo is OBC. OBC is not a monolithic entity to identify with Namo that too he never campaigned on that OBC platform in AP/T.
So what track record does the TDP have in Telangana since 2009 ? Why does the BJP with its higher vote-share have to play second fiddle
to the TDP in Telangana ?

8 months ago you had Panchayati elections and now you have local-body elections also going on. Taking last elections as yardstick, where is this higher-vote share is coming from. BJP got only 2 MLAs and 0 MPs also.

Yeah right, I posted one video where BJP guy says NDTV gave them 20%.

(same NDTV they banned)

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 30 Mar 2014 08:43

I think this election is too close and too important for both BJP and TDP. They must come together to keep Congress out of power both at the center and in the 2 states. The alliance dynamic this time is mainly NaMo+CBN, not BJP+TDP.

Long-term strategies, party-building etc. can be started after this election is won.

kittigadu · Post by **kittigadu** » 30 Mar 2014 08:57

Sir, we are talking of Lok Sabha elections, not Panchayati elections.
And these elections that you talk of were pre-Telangana formation.
How many MP seats do you think the TDP will win by itself now ?
Nada, Zilch, Zuch, Shunyam !

Weren't you the person, who was reporting a Junior NTR wave in
Srikakulam and Vizianagaram districts in 2009 ? Should I roll on the
floor laughing now ?

kittigadu · Post by **kittigadu** » 30 Mar 2014 09:04

Let us take your analysis further. BJP needs a respectable OBC face for CM, then. Kishan Reddy cannot be that face. Do you really think Bandaru Dattatreya charismatic enough to serve as a CM face? Will Kishan Reddy give up his CM ambitions?

Also, BJP completely lacks organisation in rural Telangana, and the OBCs are not organised as a political entity except under the TDP. OBCs are also very fragmented - they are not one caste and not easily organised as one entity. Also, question of money. Who is going to fund your new OBC organisation entity? All elites are taken (Kammas with TDP, Reddies with YSRCP and Velamas with TRS). Where is the money going to come from?

Finally, an OBC party in Telangana will be anathema for the present elites (both Reddies and Velamas will blow a gasket). Will an OBC party not meet with full organised opposition from all elites?

In my opinion, the Kamma elite of Hyderabad, and the Reddy elite of Telangana can be enticed, since
the YSRCP does not exist in Telangana, and the TDP will cease to exist, unless the BJP gives it a lease of
life. They do not need to project a BC CM candidate. They project their ablest leader as CM candidate, and
that is Kishen Reddy right now.

kittigadu · Post by **kittigadu** » 30 Mar 2014 09:07

Kakkaji wrote:I think this election is too close and too important for both BJP and TDP. They must come together to keep Congress out of power both at the center and in the 2 states. The alliance dynamic this time is mainly NaMo+CBN, not BJP+TDP.

Long-term strategies, party-building etc. can be started after this election is won.

Sir, I agree. But that does not mean that CBN should be allowed to play games and kill the BJP once more.
It should be a fair deal, with a 50-50 split in Telangana.

CBN is a fox, who back-stabs his own family members. BJP should be very careful of him.

yvijay · Post by **yvijay** » 30 Mar 2014 09:27

kittigadu wrote:Sir, we are talking of Lok Sabha elections, not Panchayati elections.
And these elections that you talk of were pre-Telangana formation.
How many MP seats do you think the TDP will win by itself now ?
Nada, Zilch, Zuch, Shunyam !

Weren't you the person, who was reporting a Junior NTR wave in
Srikakulam and Vizianagaram districts in 2009 ? Should I roll on the
floor laughing now ?

+1 And this is the first time that I'm hearing that BC's in Telangana are behind TDP. As far as I know, there is no clear cut case for a specific caste voting for specific party, like yadavs in UP or Bihar. Looks like some people here want TDP to gain at the cost of BJP.
Also what is this vitriol on Kishen Reddy about? Did I miss something ?What did he do ?

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 30 Mar 2014 09:41

yvijay wrote: Also what is this vitriol on Kishen Reddy about? Did I miss something ?What did he do ?

He has done nothing. That is the problem.

kittigadu · Post by **kittigadu** » 30 Mar 2014 09:54

TDP as the party of BCs is not a true story. The Kamma feudal elite might have bought/manipulated
some BC support, but that does not make it a BC party.

Does a BC have any chance of being the head of the TDP, where the post is reserved for a certain family ?

In his entire career CBN has one only election - 1999, on the shoulders of the Kargil and the BJP. He has lost every other election. It won't be different this time without Modi's help. He will not get it without giving a fair deal.

Dasari · Post by **Dasari** » 30 Mar 2014 11:17

It's official. Congress-TRS ties cut in Telengana

The issue of an alliance between the TRS and the Congress is a closed chapter.

While TRS president K. Chandrasekhar Rao had said 10 days back that there would be no alliance between the two parties, the Congress high command had not given up hope till the last minute. The TRS leaders had said that their doors were closed but the Congress was “trying to break them”.

Reacting to this, AICC general secretary and state party affairs in-charge Digvijay Singh said on Saturday: “If the TRS has closed the doors, it is welcome.” He added that the alliance between the two parties was now a closed chapter.

While the TRS and the Congress will fight in Telangana on their own in the upcoming elections, there will be a likely alliance between the Congress and the CPI.

Meanwhile, talks are still on between the Telugu Desam and the BJP for an alliance in Telangana state, which will make them a force to reckon with.

A BJP-TDP alliance may affect the TRS more than the Congress. The TRS does not have cadres at many places in Telangana and is depending on the Telangana sentiment while the Congress has a strong cadre base across Telangana at the village level and has a traditional vote bank. The credit of granting Telangana state will also help the Congress. A BJP-TDP alliance will have an impact in many Assembly constituencies

It looks like both Cong and BJP will not get any alliances. TRS is correct to go alone. There is absolutely no benefit for them, other than giving some room for TDP and BJP to get few seats. Now that BJP and TDP alliance is also broken, both of them will draw blank in T.

In the residual AP, Congress is completely wiped out. Without an alliance, BJP also cannot win a single seat even with Modi/Pawan campaign.

Effectively, both the national parties that try to cash in the state split will be blanked out. If that happens, what a poetic justice.

One side of BJP strategy is to stay out and get the support from whoever wins the elections. This is a very foolish strategy. and it is like playing not to lose. First, if they don't win more than 200 seats on their own, this can boomerang. Second, it doesn't help BJP to have any roots in AP - yet another golden opportunity is squandered.

As far as TDP, without BJP support, they will fall short of majority. The break-up of TDP+BJP alliance will be a huge lift for YSRCP that is slowly losing steam. Once again, they get lucky by the foolish actions of other parties.

ashashi · Post by **ashashi** » 30 Mar 2014 15:21

kittigadu wrote:
Kakkaji wrote:I think this election is too close and too important for both BJP and TDP. They must come together to keep Congress out of power both at the center and in the 2 states. The alliance dynamic this time is mainly NaMo+CBN, not BJP+TDP.

Long-term strategies, party-building etc. can be started after this election is won.

Sir, I agree. But that does not mean that CBN should be allowed to play games and kill the BJP once more.
It should be a fair deal, with a 50-50 split in Telangana.

CBN is a fox, who back-stabs his own family members. BJP should be very careful of him.

CBN is playing good politics. He knows that BJP/NDA needs TDP to cross over 272 and hence he is bargaining hard. If he gives too many seats to BJP, TDP's importance will be reduced. And BJP does not have any leader either who can get 2 votes in this own name. Kishen Reddy alienated the Andhra peoples so much with his "us vs them" talk in the last few years, there is no chance he can win the Amberpet assembly seat again. He needs TDP support. I cant blame CBN for playing hardball.

BJP central leadership should show Kishen Reddy his true place.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 30 Mar 2014 22:48

Published on Mar 30, 2014
BJP, TDP closer to deal

After several hiccups, the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Telugu Desam Party appear to be inching closer towards seat-sharing in undivided Andhra Pradesh.

A day after the BJP declared its intention to go it alone as the TDP did not agree to its demand for 45-48 Assembly and nine Lok Sabha seats in Telangana and 25 Assembly and five Lok Sabha seats in Seemandhra, TDP president N. Chandrababu Naidu spoke to BJP’s prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi, national president Rajnath Singh and senior leaders Arun Jaitley and Prakash Javadekar on Sunday.

Sources said Mr. Singh told Mr. Naidu that the BJP, in principle, was keen on an alliance with the TDP. He reportedly pointed out to Mr. Naidu that the national leadership favoured a tie-up in spite of resistance from the State unit.

The TDP might agree to offer 40-45 Assembly and eight Lok Sabha seats in Telangana and four Lok Sabha and 15 Assembly seats in Seemandhra. The BJP, however, is keen on five LS seats in Seemandhra.

BJP Telangana unit president G. Kishan Reddy, who is leaving for Delhi on Monday with the list of probable candidates for clearance by the central parliamentary board, however, said nobody from the Central leadership had got in touch with him.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 30 Mar 2014 23:07

It is pointless for BJP to ask for more seats in SA as it is very weak. I think they should take what TDP is offering in SA and instead ask for more assembly seats in T.

kmkraoind · Post by **kmkraoind** » 30 Mar 2014 23:08

Cross posting.

[youtube]TIhHb9bRySo#t=19[/youtube]

This is what happened during blackout of LS proceedings during AP vote. After watching this, anybody can justify Lagadpati using pepper spray.

As usual Dienasty is using its muscle very ruthlessly even in Parliament, that is really unpardonable.

According to TDP MP M. Venugopal, he will release another video, which shows at what circumstances did Lagadpati forced to use pepper spray.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 31 Mar 2014 01:53

Published on Mar 31, 2014
By B Krishna Prasad
Kishan Reddy’s YSRCP link straining tie-up talks, alleges TDP: Times of India

HYDERABAD: After weeks of flip-flopping on a much touted grand alliance with the BJP, the Telugu Desam Party has decided to complain to the saffron party's national leadership against its state leaders for not only throwing a spanner in the works, but for allegedly working in cohorts with the YSR Congress.

Angry TDP leaders have now singled out BJP Telangana unit president G Kishan Reddy for making public statements that talks have failed, which they say is deliberate, and to benefit the YSRCP. "We know who is behind the conspiracy to stall the alliance between TDP and BJP. We are aware about the forces that are working for YSRCP," TDP Rajya Sabha member C M Ramesh told TOI. Kishan Reddy, when contacted, said: 'BJP is not family-run like TDP. All decisions are taken by a group of leaders at the national level. I only conveyed my party decision."

"Once the poll talks are over we will expose them," he said. But he was not clear how the 'exposure' would help in any way.

The TDP has given the BJP a day's ultimatum before finally closing doors on dialogue on the proposed alliance. Party leaders claimed Kishan Reddy has been playing the spoilsport when other BJP leaders, including Nagam Janardhan Reddy and Ch Vidyasagar Rao are in favour of an alliance with TDP. Kishan Reddy's argument is that the TDP has no significant strength in Telangana and is not looked upon favourably by the electorate for opposing the creation of the new state. Therefore the alliance would hardly be beneficial to the BJP.

Sources said that when a senior BJP leader called up Chandrababu Naidu to finalise the alliance, Naidu is learnt to have asked them to explain to their national leadership about the 'local obstructions' against the alliance.

During the day-long TDP politburo meeting chaired by Naidu, some leaders recalled Kishan Reddy's close association with YS Rajasekhara Reddy and expressed doubts about a possible 'conspiracy' by him to derail the talks. "Everybody knows how Kishan Reddy got elected from Amberpet with the blessings of YSR. We have information that he has secretly maintained his relation with the YSR family," a fuming politburo member of TDP claimed.

The politburo asked Naidu to speak to BJP national leadership to finalise the deal and Naidu reportedly called Arun Jaitley and expressed his unhappiness over Kishan Reddy's statement that talks between TDP and BJP had failed. He reportedly complained to Jaitley that 'some sections in BJP are opposing the alliance only to benefit YSR Congress in Seemandhra and TRS in Telangana.' Arun Jaitley's response to Naidu's complaint is not known.

The TDP politburo finally decided to wait one more day to see the response of the BJP on the proposed alliance.

BJP central election committee is meeting in New Delhi on Monday where, the TDP expects, the party would send 'clear' instructions to Kishan Reddy and K Haribabu, heads of Telangana and Seemandhra units of BJP respectively, to forge the alliance with Naidu. "We will continue our talks with the BJP for another day or two. If there is no positive response we will finalise our plan of action in both the states," said Somireddy Chandramohan Reddy, TDP politburo member.

TDP politburo had agreed to allot 31 Assembly and 6 Lok Sabha seats in Telangana against 45 Assembly and 9 Lok Sabha seats demanded by BJP state wing. Similarly for Seemandhra, the politburo has okayed 8 Assembly and 3 Lok Sabha seats against the demand of 22 Assembly and 5 Lok Sabha seats.

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 31 Mar 2014 02:12

My name is Kishen Reddy
I won from Amberpet on BJP ticket
But the person responsible for my win is Rajasekhar Reddy
I say Jai to Narendra Modi garu
But hope PM seat will come to Chinamma garu
My job is to work out a alliance with TDP
But i am working behind the scenes with YSRCP
My name is Kishen Reddy
And my friend is Jagan Mohan Reddy

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 31 Mar 2014 03:04

kmkraoind wrote:Cross posting.

[youtube]TIhHb9bRySo#t=19[/youtube]

This is what happened during blackout of LS proceedings during AP vote. After watching this, anybody can justify Lagadpati using pepper spray.

As usual Dienasty is using its muscle very ruthlessly even in Parliament, that is really unpardonable.

According to TDP MP M. Venugopal, he will release another video, which shows at what circumstances did Lagadpati forced to use pepper spray.

There is fundamentally wrong with India systems. BJP, being the opposition party, instead of educating people on these they also become part of corrupt system and participated in subverting also.

Presidency, parliament and courts became bogus and without check-and-balances to prevent degradation. This incident and the way T-bill was passed should have been considered by the Judiciary. This is not due process to be followed by the Parliament to say Judiciary should not involve in parliamentary matter.

In India there are only two branches in Government to act as checks-and-balances unlike in US where all 3 branches are independent and form a better checks-and-balances system for country and its people

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 31 Mar 2014 03:10

kittigadu wrote: In his entire career CBN has one only election - 1999, on the shoulders of the Kargil and the BJP. He has lost every other election. It won't be different this time without Modi's help. He will not get it without giving a fair deal.

This is a valid point.

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 31 Mar 2014 04:23

While this election is critical for CBN's political survival, I think it is important for BJP to support him in this election. I know he has, in the past, used and then backstabbed BJP. However, CBN's political demise will mean leaving the Telugu lands completely open to exploitation by Islamists and EJs. The indics cannot afford that at this critical juncture.

Over the long term, CBN/TDP cannot grow much in Telangana, and BJP will have to grow there and become the senior partner in a BJP/ TDP alliance that will wrest power from TRS/ Cong 5 years from now. Similarly, CBN needs to become the CM of SA now, with BJP as the junior partner.

With Telangana (and its large percentage of Muslims) separated, CBN will have little incentive to beat the secular drum and backstab BJP once he comes to power in SA.

NaMo and CBN need each other now. Kishen Reddy and all be damned.

All this gyaan from someone who does not know a word of Telugu, and has spent a sum total of 2 weeks in erstwhile AP on his pilgrimages to Tirupati.

kittigadu · Post by **kittigadu** » 31 Mar 2014 05:22

TDP politburo had agreed to allot 31 Assembly and 6 Lok Sabha seats in Telangana against 45 Assembly and 9 Lok Sabha seats demanded by BJP state wing. Similarly for Seemandhra, the politburo has okayed 8 Assembly and 3 Lok Sabha seats against the demand of 22 Assembly and 5 Lok Sabha seats

Disregarding all the nonsense and misinformation about Kishen Reddy, the above is the crux of the matter. The TDP offer is comical. Mr Naidu thinks,
that he can fool the BJP twice.

In 1999, the BJP contested 8 Lok Sabha seats in combined AP, when Naidu was at the height of his powers.

A decade later, with his party non-existent in Telangana, and fighting a desperate battle for existence in Andhra, he offers the BJP
just 1 more seat than before. The BJP currently is at the height of its pan-india popularity, and fighting under it most popular leader
ever.

Considering all this, the 9 Lok Sabha seat offer is pure chutzpah. The BJP should pool resources in a few seats, field high-profile candidates
and try to win 3-5 seats on their own. Naidu can dig his own grave.

ashashi · Post by **ashashi** » 31 Mar 2014 05:35

Kishan Reddy flies to Delhi with BJP list

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 31 Mar 2014 05:42

Folks, if CBN loses 3 successive elections in SA, can the TDP survive? Or are we going to see disgruntlement against CBN? Goodness knows that I would prefer to see Jagan lose, but if CBN loses what happens next to TDP?

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 31 Mar 2014 05:52

Per one of the exit polls of Municipal and corporation polls in AP (not TG), TDP is winning 80 of 92 Municipalities and 5 out of 7 Corporations. The results are awaited on April 2nd. But unfortunately for TDP it is projected that they are losing Vijayawada corporation to YCP due to TDP's infighting.

Actually I think BJP should have begged and cajoled KCR for an alliance instead of TDP-CBN. The others may be more reliable as many here think as compared to "fox" CBN. But you know BJP is good at shooting at its feet.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 31 Mar 2014 05:56

TRS will never materialize. INC would have too much material on TRS to blackmail. INC will never allow it's chosen satrap to go with BJP. It is delusional to think TRS would ever ally with BJP. They see the saffron ideology as a threat to their "hereditary" power

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 31 Mar 2014 06:00

nageshks wrote:Folks, if CBN loses 3 successive elections in SA, can the TDP survive? Or are we going to see disgruntlement against CBN? Goodness knows that I would prefer to see Jagan lose, but if CBN loses what happens next to TDP?

TDP can survive in SA as there are only two interests now - TDP and YSRCP. Split process can keep INC and BJP away for some time.

Considering local-body elections where TDP is leading in most of the districts except in usual suspects places - Kadapa, Nellore districts, it is less likely for TDP to lose barring EVM magic or any INC/YSRCP deviant methods.

Only issue would be it will be tough to keep T-TDP if it loses SA, considering financing aspect. In such scenario, it would be best to fold non-Congress votebank to BJP. This is important aspect why BJP needs to be friends with TDP, as TDP has been keeping the flock of non-Congress votebank. That votebank needs to be fairly moved to BJP in case TDP fails/folds which is less likely scenario at present but in decades time frame.

If TDP performs well in SA, then Telangana will also need TDP for cross-business reasons.

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 31 Mar 2014 06:12

Muppalla wrote: Actually I think BJP should have begged and cajoled KCR for an alliance instead of TDP-CBN. The others may be more reliable as many here think as compared to "fox" CBN. But you know BJP is good at shooting at its feet.

Historically and factually looking at things, only TDP has been reliable open partner for non-Congress parties. TDP/NTR/CBN finger has been there in all non-Congress governments with their concept of forming non-congress fronts including NDA. "fox" is more reliable than "non-foxes".

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 31 Mar 2014 06:22

devesh wrote:TRS will never materialize. INC would have too much material on TRS to blackmail. INC will never allow it's chosen satrap to go with BJP. It is delusional to think TRS would ever ally with BJP. They see the saffron ideology as a threat to their "hereditary" power

Thank you.

I just want someone else to say the same. It will be like a greatest pull-off if BJP can achieve that. What that leaves is either fighting to reduce congress and its B-teams or screw the state for now for post-poll alignments. However, if it is the screw they will have to bear real INC getting extra 5 to 10 seats with ease.

Based on the above bottom line the "CBN-as-fox" has to be dealt with. There is huge illusion that BJP has something on the SA side. They don't have anything that will help YSRC if they go alone. There is no threat to TDP on SA due to BJP whether they lose or win.. The only way in SA for BJP is because after this election only one of TDP or YSRC will survive. Build the party by poaching the leaders as BJP will be party ruling at the center. Never allow congress to build back. This particular potential is there because it is all business type bidding that is the standard operating procedure.

For TG-BJP:
(1) BJP should negotiate to steal as many MP seats and not much assembly and do not get into bind with TDP. Once NaMo gets more just ditch TDP and try all the beautiful things that they are planning to do. (They are alone from 2004 to 2014 and they probably tried a lot to go beyond 5% vote they have).
(2) At this time all the posturing is fine because negotiation involves posturing with a tough-nut such as CBN. If they really go alone they are very clear where their heart is and that is even at the cost of helping the goal of INC mukt bharat, they are only trying SA mukt TG. That is the honest explanation and everything else is spin because on their own they will not win even 5 assembly seats.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 31 Mar 2014 06:40

Kittugadu garu,

How many MP seats BJP can win on its own and how many of 6+5 it can win by taking TDP offer?

If the difference is >0 then it is worth going together.

2019 elections, IMHO, will be completely different. Read this to find why I think so The Prize - That is India

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 31 Mar 2014 06:51

Muppalla wrote: Based on the above bottom line the "CBN-as-fox" has to be dealt with. There is huge illusion that BJP has something on the SA side. They don't have anything that will help YSRC if they go alone. There is no threat to TDP on SA due to BJP whether they lose or win.. The only way in SA for BJP is because after this election only one of TDP or YSRC will survive. Build the party by poaching the leaders as BJP will be party ruling at the center. Never allow congress to build back. This particular potential is there because it is all business type bidding that is the standard operating procedure.

I agree that the BJP has nothing on the SA side. I doubt they have 5 candidates who have a chance of winning. I had long thought about it. Would it help decimate the YCP, if BJP and TDP do match fixing in some 25 seats (if necessary with candidates loaned from the TDP to the BJP) to finish off the YCP? Personally, I think a Congress mukt SA is worth accepting 5 seats less. A huge relief it will be to SA (except maybe EJs) if Jagan and his coterie are put away permanently.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 31 Mar 2014 09:12

I think (think) a tremendous amount of posturing is happening. Both BJP and TDP are wearing out the opponents in waiting for the alliance to fail. This is also allowing a lot of party-hoppers to fight with the insiders of the opponents. Now they are talking of two more days.

This is an exit of poll of today's elections. This is the best sample you can get. However, you can validate with results on 2nd April. No need of any opinion polls.

By the way the person who went to SC to stop results declaration of MPP and ZPP polls is Mysoora Reddy. There is another case in AP-HC to stall the results declaration of Corporation and Municipality elections. We will know in another 24hours.

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 31 Mar 2014 10:07

^^^
Also interesting is according to his survey, INC is leading in Telangana followed by TRS and TDP. BJP is not seen anywhere.

Now BJP didn't win any rural Panchayatis last year and now they are not expected to win any urban municipalities, where are the all claims of BJP making big and asking TDP lion-share in Telangana?

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 31 Mar 2014 18:36

maitas66 ‏@chinmaykrvd 18m
ThankGod TDP-BJP alliance confirmed.

Ratnakar Sadasyula ‏@ScorpiusMaximus 20m
45 mla and 8 MP seats in Telangana, 18 mla and 5 MP seats in Andhra for BJP as part of BJP-TDP alliance.