Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Yogi_G · Post by **Yogi_G** » 01 Apr 2014 10:30

Mullah-Yadav and Dr.Artiste can aspire for national roles as they have able and loyal lieutenants in the form of family members to stay back in state in their absence. Who will Mamata and JJ fall back on? I think its the same case with Nitish as well.

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 01 Apr 2014 10:34

jamwal wrote:NDA 240 to 280

UPA 100 to 140

AAP 0 to 1

thats what a reliable congress person told about UPA

SRoy · Post by **SRoy** » 01 Apr 2014 10:37

kancha wrote:
subhamoy.das wrote:No brainer. All these MOD scams benefit the officers who picker a good deal of money and makes the jawans at mercy end as they have to deal with sub-standard equipment in life threat situations! I have never seen a retired officer living in a small flat or house. They always seem to build grand houses which does not correlate to their salary. I also know a number of ex-officers who come to work for industry greeds for money rather than sewa!
Wow! That's a pretty broad brush.

Yes, that's a very broad brush indeed. But with a certain kernel of truth and misinformation.

The truth is, that the differences in the retirements benefits are huge and so the kind of real estate and life style that a JCO/SNCO/NCO can afford vis-a-vis can afford is vastlt different.

@Subhamoy - Its not really greed. After the rank of Lt. Col. the promotions are not time based. You will notice that corporates gets loads of Lt. Col. / Col. and equivalents.

vic · Post by **vic** » 01 Apr 2014 10:40

BJP 210 plus minus 10

Congress 100 plus minus 10

SRoy · Post by **SRoy** » 01 Apr 2014 10:40

kancha wrote:SRoy, How large would that sample that you have interacted with, be?

For someone who is born and brought in cantonments/AFS's and from 3rd generation services family, what sample size is good enough?

kancha · Post by **kancha** » 01 Apr 2014 10:44

SRoy wrote:
kancha wrote:SRoy, How large would that sample that you have interacted with, be?
For someone who is born and brought in cantonments/AFS's and from 3rd generation services family, what sample size is good enough?

Of course, I forgot all about that.

The pay disparity that you mention. Is it only applicable to the armed forces, or an IAS officer and his clerk also have similar differences in pay and perks?

SRoy · Post by **SRoy** » 01 Apr 2014 10:55

@viv: Forces are not a homogenous entity. The officer corp has undergone a tremendous change in class composition in last 2 decades. So, our experiences will vary depending on our points of references.

What we need to appreciate is that in addition to the change in composition, the forces are also not isolated to the civilian society as earlier. So, the social milieu that BJP/RSS espouses will be evaluated by potential voters in uniform. And many of these voters do not agree/approve such settings.
Of course such people have gone down in numbers in last few decades as I noted above.

People should not be surprised that the cultural shift will impact a certain privileged class.

@Mort: A long ago I saw a quote in the Indian Express. I don't know to whom it was attributed and didn't what it meant. It said "A military coup in India if it ever happens will be led by a Subedar Major, not by a General".

Yayavar · Post by **Yayavar** » 01 Apr 2014 11:10

SRoy: it has changed indeed but the point stands that your experience and mine give us different data points; and we both seem to have been part of similar early experience and are from a services family. I do not see it as divided along the NCO line as you are positing.

The quote on the coup is silly; what are the reasons for even suggesting a coup? Merely a rhetorical device by someone to claim a social or class divide.

SRoy · Post by **SRoy** » 01 Apr 2014 11:12

kancha wrote:
SRoy wrote: For someone who is born and brought in cantonments/AFS's and from 3rd generation services family, what sample size is good enough?
Of course, I forgot all about that.

The pay disparity that you mention. Is it only applicable to the armed forces, or an IAS officer and his clerk also have similar differences in pay and perks?

Well I'm just back from a visit to parents. BJP will get a lot of vote. Chinese incursions, Gen. VK Singh, sinking and crashing ships etc....all are factors. And among the ex-servicemen the price rise is another factor.

Coming to your question. It is not really a comparison between a Services Officer-JCO/SNCO/NCO vs IAS Officer/Clerk.

In our larger family we have a Sgt. and a Flt. Lt..
They are siblings and currently posted in the same AFS. Despite being in different living areas and different living quarters as their circumstance in life permit, they and their kids still share the same external environment. Schools, the MH (military hospitals), the station's swimming pools, the auditoriums etc. etc.
The same tree lined well maintained roads in a secured locality. The list is really long.

When these two retire. The SNCO, unlike his officer sibling, will be hard pressed to find such a locality within his budget. Its not the really the size of the house.
For JCO/SNCO/NCO the change in life style and living environment is drastic once they retire.

SRoy · Post by **SRoy** » 01 Apr 2014 11:17

viv wrote:SRoy: it has changed indeed but the point stands that your experience and mine give us different data points; and we both seem to have been part of similar early experience and are from a services family. I do not see it as divided along the NCO line as you are positing.

The quote on the coup is silly; what are the reasons for even suggesting a coup? Merely a rhetorical device by someone to claim a social or class divide.

Of course it was a rhetorical device. The time when I read it was in late 80s.
Are you claiming there was no class distinction then? I think there was. Not due to design, but due to different sections of the populations getting recruited at one or the other levels.

kancha · Post by **kancha** » 01 Apr 2014 11:22

SRoy wrote: When these two retire. The SNCO, unlike his officer sibling, will be hard pressed to find such a locality within his budget. Its not the really the size of the house.
For JCO/SNCO/NCO the change in life style and living environment is drastic once they retire.

Totally with you. However, the armed forces are hardly to blame for this pay disparity which exists in all govt and private sectors.
But moving on, how does this translate into officers voting INC and JCOs voting BJP? This is something I didn't understand from yours and Mort's previous posts.
In fact, going by the sixth pay commission fiasco, officers should have an even bigger grudge against the govt of the day

Yayavar · Post by **Yayavar** » 01 Apr 2014 11:27

SRoy wrote:
viv wrote:SRoy: it has changed indeed but the point stands that your experience and mine give us different data points; and we both seem to have been part of similar early experience and are from a services family. I do not see it as divided along the NCO line as you are positing.

The quote on the coup is silly; what are the reasons for even suggesting a coup? Merely a rhetorical device by someone to claim a social or class divide.
Of course it was a rhetorical device. The time when I read it was in late 80s.
Are you claiming there was no class distinction then? I think there was. Not due to design, but due to different sections of the populations getting recruited at one or the other levels.

Your example shows that the class distinction is very limited - one brother being JCO and the other an officer. The sample size with you and me or others is our immediate experience and hence different inferences. I do not get how you and Mort can claim that officers will vote INC and JCOs will vote BJP.
The coup-quote could be from someone with doubtful credentials - you dont even know who it is and what the context is, so it cannot be a basis for an inference or in support of a position.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 01 Apr 2014 11:58

if the feeling expressed by the retired community is any indication, in articles and public interactions,. then the INC is gonna get whacked by the officer class as well. which is IMO the CT of why it took so long for the process to get the IA to vote easily from place they are deployed.

SRoy · Post by **SRoy** » 01 Apr 2014 12:02

^^
Viv,
I do now understand the target of the such rhetorical device. But a lot a changed in last 20 years. The real intent of the rhetoric is still valid albeit for a different use, but the time to discuss is still to come. After the last few colonial rule remnants are gone.

JohnTitor · Post by **JohnTitor** » 01 Apr 2014 12:11

Q.. everyone talks of candidates losing their deposit. How much is this deposit? And how does one lose their deposit? I've tried scouring the web for info.. but it isn't very clear to me. Would appreciate clarification on this.

SRoy · Post by **SRoy** » 01 Apr 2014 12:20

kancha wrote: Totally with you. However, the armed forces are hardly to blame for this pay disparity which exists in all govt and private sectors.
But moving on, how does this translate into officers voting INC and JCOs voting BJP? This is something I didn't understand from yours and Mort's previous posts.
In fact, going by the sixth pay commission fiasco, officers should have an even bigger grudge against the govt of the day

This is what it appears from outside.
Boss this is where the meanness, cynical mindset of the Congis come into picture. They were able to drive a wedge among the uniformed fraternity itself.
Not just officer vs ranks, but among the officers themselves. You'll have to dig into news reports coming out in late 90s. In the IAF for instance, there were severe problems among the flying and non-flying branches officer cadre, really ugly episode.

However, 6th pay commission is not the overwhelming issue. RSS/BJP has a cultural orientation that doesn't gel well a certain (sizeable) section of the services.

johneeG · Post by **johneeG** » 01 Apr 2014 12:23

Generally, it is seen that the lotus get more votes from middle-class or urban voters i.e. voters with education and other facilities. The same may be seen in armed forces as well unless there is some other factor which changes the scenario. Armed forces seem to have a strong colonial history and secular background, so that may be one factor. But, armed forces also have a very strong nationalistic fervor which would help lotus.

So, I would think that the younger ones would vote for lotus and older ones for kongis(or even fordriwal). JCOs for the kongis(or other kongi Bs) while officers for the lotus. People hailing from dynasties would vote for kongis. But, after the last decade, I think most of the people will vote against the kongis.

SRoy · Post by **SRoy** » 01 Apr 2014 12:34

johneeG,

While you have listed couple of armed forces traits, but you have not grasped the implications.

The people that vote for kongis are the same, whether in or out of uniform.

Officer cadre whether military or civilian comes from the same social strata in present times. They are also the product of the same education system, exposed to same media.
If you assume simply being officers they will vote for the lotus, then you will have to apply the logic to their civilian counterpart as well. Had your assumption been true, then BJP would have got a counter establishment within the civilian bureaucracy. It hasn't happened.

I'll give you a hint. Refer to the INA history thread. You'll find my posts with posts from a retired IA officer (who was also a BRF admin). You'll understand the mindset. Thankfully for the last 2 decades the forces have started getting people from a more heterogeneous social settings.

BTW, when you talk of forces being secular, they are secular as the definition goes.

anjan · Post by **anjan** » 01 Apr 2014 12:52

SRoy wrote:@viv: Forces are not a homogenous entity. The officer corp has undergone a tremendous change in class composition in last 2 decades. So, our experiences will vary depending on our points of references.

What we need to appreciate is that in addition to the change in composition, the forces are also not isolated to the civilian society as earlier. So, the social milieu that BJP/RSS espouses will be evaluated by potential voters in uniform. And many of these voters do not agree/approve such settings.
Of course such people have gone down in numbers in last few decades as I noted above.

People should not be surprised that the cultural shift will impact a certain privileged class.

What privileged class? 2 decades ago most of the offr corps of the Indian Army would have been from the middle class. Sons of clerks and teachers. The process of middle classification was well under way by the 70s. By the late 80s and IPKF most of a battalion's offr were urban middle class folks. More true of the Infantry perhaps than the Armd Corps. This shift has only continued. You'd be surprised that these days the wives of JCOs and ORs are better educated than offr's wives.

My understanding is that the AF is even worse as a class divide example. Most of the pilots(bulk of the offr corps) are all bachelor degrees from JNU (courtesy NDA) versus your frequently more educated and importantly technically educated NCOs. The class barrier there is non-existent for all practical purposes.

One can only laugh when one sees such loose talk about life style of of Retd. Offrs. You can't have a met a lot to make such a statement. The rich retd offrs are either family money or they come from your MES or CSD type sinecures. They hardly represent the bulk of the offr. corps.

SRoy · Post by **SRoy** » 01 Apr 2014 13:07

Class distinction if any has nothing to do exclusively with money and even less with education.
It has to do with cultural milieu, which I have repeatedly pointed out.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 01 Apr 2014 13:38

Narendra Modi will form government: L K Advani
http://www.business-standard.com/articl ... 588_1.html

Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leader and former deputy prime minister L K Advani on Monday exuded confidence that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) would win in the Lok Sabha elections and a government under the leadership of Narendra Modi formed.

..
He added that he had been associated with Gujarat for a very long time. Chief minister Modi brought transformation in that state. There was transformation in Madhya Pradesh under chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan and in Chhattisgarh under chief minister Raman Singh. It proves that the BJP can serve people well not only as an opposition party but also when it gets power.

Advani said the party will be successful in this election thanks to the work done by the NDA government under the leadership of Atal Bihari Vajpayee and BJP chief ministers.

subhamoy.das · Post by **subhamoy.das** » 01 Apr 2014 13:48

I am not generalizing. Every house I have seen with an ex-office name plate was indeed large. Now this could be co-incident. Where does the kick back goes. Not only to political class right? A significant part makes it to the services. The chances of that making its way to the JCO is remote. Also saw a report from a US officer in training with IA. It is shameful to hear that soldiers are made to do personal maid work for the officers.

svenkat · Post by **svenkat** » 01 Apr 2014 14:00

http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report-shazia-ilmi-takes-on-ex-army-chief-1973966

AAP candidate Shazia Ilmi Monday took on the BJP for giving a Lok Sabha ticket to former army chief Gen. V.K. Singh, saying it had set a wrong precedent.

Ilmi said that although every citizen has a right to get involved in active politics after retirement, the way the Bharatiya Janata Party was projecting Singh "is posing a dangerous trend".

"We have seen the fate of Pakistan... and the BJP is encouraging such trends in India for its narrow political aims," the Aam Aadmi Party leader told the media here.

Regarding V.K. Singh's comment that the AAP was "anti-national", Ilmi mocked at the former general for forgetting even his date of birth. "What can we expect from him?"

SRoy · Post by **SRoy** » 01 Apr 2014 14:06

subhamoy.das wrote:I am not generalizing. Every house I have seen with an ex-office name plate was indeed large. Now this could be co-incident. Where does the kick back goes. Not only to political class right? A significant part makes it to the services. The chances of that making its way to the JCO is remote. Also saw a report from a US officer in training with IA. It is shameful to hear that soldiers are made to do personal maid work for the officers.

There you are going wrong.

As I pointed out, at the time of retirement the financial situation of an officer is vastly greater than that of a JCO/SNCO. Also, remember that many OR (jawans/NCOs) from the Army are let go much earlier. Their financial situation is even worse.
In addition to the above ex-officers also manage to get employment at good wages. Again this is where JCO/SNCO/NCO are at disadvantages due to their erstwhile job profiles.
Finally, the non-officer crowd in most cases are first generation middle class fellows. The officers on the other hand are middle class offspring themselves. The former have borne the responsibility of larger families back in the villages. The officers from middle class families have no such burden.

So, the houses the ex-servicemen manage to build/buy just reflection of these factors.

Forces are patriotic. Kick back cases are few, indulged by even fewer among a microscopic group that are responsible for procurements. They are an aberration.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 01 Apr 2014 14:40

With all due respect, the political and social diversity within the armed forces is beginning to derail this thread.

anmol · Post by **anmol** » 01 Apr 2014 15:11

Request: please tweet this if you can so that it reaches BJP people (but dont mention the name of DM, or district).

According to a recently transferred DM of Etah(hxxp://web.archive.org/web/20131104215400/hxxp:// etah.nic.in /)... brahmins are unhappy with BJP.

This is what he said:

1) Salman Khushid is behind the transfer. (strong possibility of EVM magic: http://www.ndtv.com/article/india/70-ia ... esh-197289 http://www.indiatvnews.com/news/india/e ... 34842.html)

2) Kalyan Singh's son is lazy, not approachable and even corrupt (according to ex DM Ji he made like 5000cr when father was CM). According to him he will probably lose.

3) Kalraj Mishra, Kesri Nath Tripathi, Hridaya Narain Dixit.. etc are unhappy(obvious reason), they working overtime against mission 272.

4) According to DM (who is brahmin, and close to BJP netas mentioned above)... Salman Khurshid will win farrukhabad because "BJP appointed Rajput.. so brahmin are supporting Salman Khurshid".

Following is from different source:

1) BJP is winning in Gautam Buddha Nagar. Even though Gujjars are united this time... and elders have asked "gujjars samaj" to vote for their own caste... still around 30% of gujjars are likely to vote for BJP.
2) Etawah / Kanpur / Agra... BJP is probably winning.
3) In Mathura, while BJP is doing well (all the dal-badlu businessmen who are on winning side are on BJP side this time).... people were unhappy because after Jayant locals wanted a local candidate. Another complaint is that Hema Malini cant speak hindi (is this true ?).

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 01 Apr 2014 15:14

Published on Mar 06, 2012
Congress wiped out of Amethi, Rae Bareli: PTI

Amethi/Rae Bareli: Amethi and Rae Bareli, the pocket boroughs of Congress since the days of Indira Gandhi, gave a shocker to the party as it managed to win only two of the 10 Assembly seats in these twin Lok Sabha constituencies.

The most stunning was the defeat of sitting MLA Amita Singh, wife of Congress MP Sanjay Singh, in Amethi seat where she had to bite the dust by a margin of 8,760 votes. Samajwadi Party's Gayatri Prasad emerged the winner.

In Sonia Gandhi's Rae Bareli, Congress only managed a 'nil' result and was a distant third in three of the five assembly constituencies while Samajwadi Party managed to romp home in four seats. The fifth seat was won by Peace Party.
Congress wiped out of Amethi, Rae Bareli

The Congress managed to win just two out of the 10 assembly seats in Amethi and Rae Bareli, which the Gandhis represent in Lok Sabha.

Amethi, represented by Rahul Gandhi fared better for Congress in comparison to Rae Bareli as the party won two out of the five seats in the constituency.

Congress had seven assembly seats in these two Lok Sabha constituencies in the 2007 Assembly elections.
The only two candidates who managed to win are Radhey Shyam Kannaujia Jagdishpur (Reserved) and Dr Muslim (Tiloi) in Amethi.

The party can take solace in Mohd Naeem who lost the Gauriganj seat by a slender margin of 186 votes.

The 10 seats on these twin constituencies had been the prestige issue for the Congress and its star campaigner Priyanka Gandhi had camped there for 17 days accompanied by her children for about nine days. Her husband, Robert Vadra also campaigned.

Sonia and Rahul also held an election rally each in these areas.

Besides these two constituencies, the party also witnessed a complete rout in adjoining Sultanpur seat represented by Sanjay Singh (Cong) in the Lok Sabha where SP won all the five seats.

If some of the UP leaders like Kalyan Singh and Anupriya Patel (Apna Dal) and others were to campaign in Rae Bareli and Amethi, both seats can be won by BJP.

anmol · Post by **anmol** » 01 Apr 2014 15:20

niran wrote:Hema malini bjp candidate from Mathura yesterday created a stir, she refused to get down from her vehical citing she is a star, hence no can mingle without security

One side says that a karyakarta pinched her ass. Other side says that it happened because of "dhakka mukki".

niran · Post by **niran** » 01 Apr 2014 15:43

anmol wrote:Request: please tweet this if you can so that it reaches BJP people (but dont mention the name of DM, or district).nted a local candidate. ]

this is a hoax, bjp eye tea cell receive this mail and its variants every day
relax this is team NaMo they know everything they should know and everything they shouldn't know

About Ajay Agrawal bjp candidate for Rai Bareli against Sonia Gandhi
he is a supreme court vakil has filed pil from bofors to ipl his most famous pil
was in the taj corridor case where Maya Ben was badly burned post mujjaffarnagar
riots he gave up bicycle and red topi to embrace lotus.

sapa chief canvaser from hamirpur has been arrested after tones
of explosives consfisticated from his home

sapa chief canvaser from azamgarh have suddenly forgotten the use of phones

since this morning all 14 seats from purvanchal show 90% chance of a win for bjp
even ishpaat puruush beni baby facing opposition in his birth place.

speaking of birth place nitish had to endure chants of modi modi
in his own birth place.
and them people still nonchalantly claim no modi wave.

Victor · Post by **Victor** » 01 Apr 2014 16:05

subhamoy.das wrote:I am not generalizing. Every house I have seen with an ex-office name plate was indeed large. Now this could be co-incident. Where does the kick back goes. Not only to political class right? A significant part makes it to the services. The chances of that making its way to the JCO is remote. Also saw a report from a US officer in training with IA. It is shameful to hear that soldiers are made to do personal maid work for the officers.

This is totally inaccurate. What do you mean by *every* house? And any report from a US officer that talks badly about batmen/sahayaks is pure horse dung. They are very much prevalent in the US army too, specially in foreign postings of senior officers where they can be family drivers and general chaprasi type workers. Anyway, this discussion is veering off course IMO. For the true picture, refer to Rewari rally which had senior types from all 3 forces on stage with Modi.

kancha · Post by **kancha** » 01 Apr 2014 16:32

subhamoy.das wrote:I am not generalizing. Every house I have seen with an ex-office name plate was indeed large.

Can you qualify that a bit? IMO, it seems that you are suggesting that the entire officer class in the army is sold out

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 01 Apr 2014 16:33

Assam is proving to be something of a strange case when it comes to surveys. NDTV and CSDS are predicting that the BJP will be wiped out in the state. CSDS gives Cong 44% vote, and the BJP 19%. NDTV, in some strange arithmetic, added up the votes of the Cong and the AUDF and gave 36% of the vote to the combine, giving BJP 18%. On the other hand, CVoter is giving the BJP 30% vote share, and the Cong 29% vote. IBTL has given no vote shares, but predicts 6 seats each for both the Cong. and the BJP+ alliance.

Twitterati are also divided. A couple of AGP afficionados are waxing eloquent how BJP will be wiped out because it refused to ally with the AGP. Others are predicting a sweep for the BJP.

I have family in Assam, and they are divided as well (but they are mentioning only local trends).

Are there any insights from any locals in Assam? What is really happening there?

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 01 Apr 2014 17:13

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 01 Apr 2014 17:21

Laissez-faire ‏@FCBtheChamps 7m
CSDS March Poll: TN: AIADMK: 32%, DMK+: 23%, NDA: 22%. Interesting NDA experiment!

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 01 Apr 2014 17:24

SwamyG ji,

Is Shashi Tharkoor also warming up Mrs. Chandy?

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 01 Apr 2014 17:35

This CSDS survey is almost accurate. However, I am very convinced that surveys are used to give a life to INC. If these surveys are not there, INC will drop less that even 50 seats. More later on the theory.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 01 Apr 2014 17:51

Yes, Assam is a curious case. Pro-Hindu wave in favor of INC (they are digging their grave - at least Bengalies in WB can claim bhaichara with Bdeshis as an excuse).

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 01 Apr 2014 18:18

Besides TN, any CSDS updates today ?

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 01 Apr 2014 18:35

No-dues certificate
Sitting MPs are rushing to ensure that they have cleared their dues — house rent, electricity, MTNL bills, etc — before filing their nominations for re-election. They also have to ensure that they have returned their computers issued by the Lok Sabha Secretariat and any books borrowed from the Parliament library. The MPs need to submit a ‘No-Dues’ certificate before their nomination forms can be accepted. The rule came about after a large number of MPs defaulted on returning their laptops and clearing their phone bills.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 01 Apr 2014 18:37

SRoy , s das please take Army discussion to OT thread.