Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 01 Apr 2014 18:38

Niran Ji, I heard the same that Anmol is saying, from different sources (ll high ranking members from one caste).

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 01 Apr 2014 19:12

is shashi tharoor hands at the lady's hips?

SRoy · Post by **SRoy** » 01 Apr 2014 19:14

fanne wrote:Niran Ji, I heard the same that Anmol is saying, from different sources (ll high ranking members from one caste).

Widespread or only Western UP?

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 01 Apr 2014 19:17

Both UP and Bihar (but please read the disclaimer, comes from limited set of very highly placed people in terms of who they are (non political but high level babu)!! Brahmin votes have to be rallied, along with other caste votes.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 01 Apr 2014 19:18

Brahmin vote have a feeling that they have been cheated!! or taken for granted (limited source)!!

Comer · Post by **Comer** » 01 Apr 2014 19:26

^^ What has happened that make them feel cheated? Isn't the threat of private sector reservation not scary enough ?
In other news, I saw Sun TV after a long time. They showed the JJ's campaign. It is ridiculous. They have this stage where JJ reads from a sheaf of papers and the candidate keeps pressing his palms in Namaste position throughout the speech. Post speech, she boards the chopper and takes off. They show a line of ADMK leaders(some 6-7 of them) doing the same thing only to the flying helicopter. They keep doing it till the chopper rises to some height. Looked like some tin pot dictator in a banana republic. I hope she doesn't come anywhere close to deciding authority in this election.

anmol · Post by **anmol** » 01 Apr 2014 19:35

saravana wrote:^^ What has happened that make them feel cheated? Isn't the threat of private sector reservation not scary enough ?
In other news, I saw Sun TV after a long time. They showed the JJ's campaign. It is ridiculous. They have this stage where JJ reads from a sheaf of papers and the candidate keeps pressing his palms in Namaste position throughout the speech. Post speech, she boards the chopper and takes off. They show a line of ADMK leaders(some 6-7 of them) doing the same thing only to the flying helicopter. They keep doing it till the chopper rises to some height. Looked like some tin pot dictator in a banana republic. I hope she doesn't come anywhere close to deciding authority in this election.

saravana ji... I(political novice) think it is only the "leaders", journalist, businessmen and IAS types (like the ex-District Magistrate) who feel this way(because Kalyan Singh/Modi will upset the applecart ). Things like private sector reservation don't affect them.

anmol · Post by **anmol** » 01 Apr 2014 19:47

BJP in UP downplays reports of dissent over ticket distribution
by Press Trust of India | Allahabad, business-standard.com
April 1st 2014

Uttar Pradesh BJP today sought to downplay the reports of dissent within the party over distribution of tickets for the Lok Sabha polls, saying "longer queues are natural where there is a greater possibility of victory".

BJP national general secretary Amit Shah, who is in-charge of UP, said that the party "will not reconsider its candidate for any of the 78 seats in the state it is contesting except Fatehpur Sikri about which discussions are still on".

While the BJP has entered into a tie-up with Apna Dal which has been given two seats, - Mirzapur and Pratapgarh - a crisis has emerged in Fatehpur Sikri where party leader Udaybhaan Singh has threatened to contest as an Independent after denial of a party ticket.

After making the remark, Shah also replied in the negative when asked whether the expulsion of senior leader Jaswant Singh was indicative of the fact that the party was in a process of "phasing out" all leaders who were of a ripe old age.

Shah, who was here to inaugurate Narendra Modi's election office in the city, said the BJP prime ministerial candidate's next visit here "will be announced in one or two days".

Replying to a query, he said the party saw Varanasi as "a one-sided contest" though as a matter of principle it took "all opponents very seriously".

He, however, dismissed queries relating to the Congress' inability to announce a candidate from Varanasi and talks of a "common candidate" against Narendra Modi.

"These questions ought to be put to the parties concerned," Shah said.

Asked about reports that US Ambassador to India Nancy Powell's resignation might have been caused by a strong possibility of Modi coming to power, Shah, who is Modi's close aide, said "we cannot comment on foreign policy matters on the basis of speculations made by the media".

Virendra · Post by **Virendra** » 01 Apr 2014 19:55

On one hand BJP national co-ordinator Ganesh Malviya's wife is caught taking 10 lakh bribe in MP.
Other side Kejri's pics with Rajmohan Gandhi (supporter of Fai) are doing rounds.
Interesting times ahead ...

svenkat · Post by **svenkat** » 01 Apr 2014 19:59

http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/kerala/vote-religion-and-political-shifts-in-kerala/article5856119.ece

Barely a month ago, the Congress in Kerala was looking at the April 10 election with trepidation. The uproar over the Kasturirangan Committee recommendations on the protection of the Western Ghats was at its peak in the high ranges in the State, where settler farmers had been cultivators for generations.

Everybody, from local priests to the top echelons of the Catholic Church, was dropping dark hints at what awaited the Congress at the hustings. What Kerala witnessed in between was a virtual spectacle of the Church giving a good shake-up to the increasingly vulnerable Congress.

Sensing trouble, the Congress leadership went into overdrive and got the Union Ministry of Environment and Forests to issue a draft notification downsizing the areas demarcated by the Kasturirangan panel as “ecologically sensitive” to pacify the angry farmers and the Church. But the Congress could not emerge unscathed from the conflict. It had to withdraw one of its most vocal MPs from the fray in Idukki, a constituency bound by the high ranges, which now has a nominee of the local High Range Protection Council, headed by none other than the Bishop, as its main opponent in the constituency.

svenkat · Post by **svenkat** » 01 Apr 2014 20:07

http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/kerala/ghats-row-and-its-aftermath/article5806701.ece

What is the reigning theme of this round of Lok Sabha elections in Kerala? Price rise and the many ills of UPA’s neo-liberal governance agenda? Politics of violence and challenges to State’s development? Political and policy drift at the Centre and in the State? Many of these, of course, are key issues being talked about out there, but the reigning theme, regardless of how it matters to the population across the State, is the Kasturirangan Committee recommendations and its aftermath.

If the Lok Sabha elections were held three months ago, the reigning theme would have been the ‘solar scam’ with its devastating implications for the ruling United Democratic Front (UDF). The Opposition Left Democratic Front (LDF) was on the offensive, launching a series of agitations across the State, and the UDF itself was in disarray over the issue. Then came the huge row over the Kasturirangan Committee recommendations and political Kerala was thrown into the vortex of a series of agitations that spread like wildfire in the higher reaches of the State. Kerala has not looked back after that.

The settler community’s rejection of K. Kasturirangan High Level Working Group Report (HLWG) on Western Ghats as anti-farmer had the UDF caught in a white-knuckle roller coaster ride to the Lok Sabha polls. The big question now is whether the furore would help the LDF reap electoral dividends comparable to what it would have perhaps made from the solar scam and the attendant furore.

The high ranges erupted in protest against the Kasturirangan report beginning November 13, 2013, the day on which the Office the Ministry of Environment and Forests (MoEF) issued an Office memorandum declaring 123 villages in the State as Ecologically Sensitive Areas (ESAs). There was mob violence at Thamarassery and a State-wide hartal called by the LDF. The High Range Protection Council organised a 48-hour road blockade in Idukki. The situation returned to seeming normality only when the MoEF issued a draft notification on March 10 incorporating the State’s proposal to trim ESA from 13,108 sq km to 9993.7 sq km. Although the notification has doused settler farmer community’s anger somewhat, the UDF is painfully aware of the embers smouldering in the higher reaches.

Focus on high ranges

The constituencies where the farmers’ anger can have electoral implications are Idukki, Wayanad, Vadakara and Kozhikode. In Idukki, the interplay of the personal and political had resulted in incumbent P.T. Thomas being kept out of the Congress’ candidate list. In Wayanad, the Congress has persisted with incumbent M.I. Shanavas, but there are strong worries for the UDF here, with sections within the Congress using the local people’s ire to trigger undercurrents against their own candidate.

In Idukki, the LDF had used the issue to field Joyce George, legal adviser to the High Range Protection Council, as its candidate, even as the Council named him as its candidate. The question whose candidate Mr. George is still hanging fire in the constituency and the State’s political scene. However, the strategy has helped the LDF to reach out to minority Christian community in the high ranges in a big way. There are, however, strong critics of the LDF stand who feel that the CPI(M) and its allies should have stuck with the Gadgil Committee report rather than the watered down version of the Kasturirangan report.

svenkat · Post by **svenkat** » 01 Apr 2014 20:16

http://indianexpress.com/article/india/politics/inclusion-of-jats-in-obc-list-comes-under-sc-scanner/99/

he controversial decision of UPA-II government ahead of general elections to include Jats in OBC category came under judicial scrutiny with the Supreme Court on Tuesday seeking explanation from the Centre for allegedly ignoring the advice of a statutory body to keep the community away from reservation benefits.

The apex court said “the matter is serious” and it would like to “peruse the files containing the materials to know whether there was application of mind or not” for coming out with the March 4 notification to include Jat community in the OBC list.

“The respondent (Ministry of Social Justice and Empowerment) is directed to place entire material, records and files,” a bench comprising Chief Justice P Sathasivam and justices Ranjan Gogoi and N V Ramana said.

“We will examine the issue,” the bench said while issuing notice and sought response of the Centre on the two petitions challenging the notification to include Jats in the OBC list and posted the matter for hearing on April 9.

The court said it will consider the plea for stay of the notification after examining the materials and also sought the assistance of Attorney General G E Vahanvati.

svenkat · Post by **svenkat** » 01 Apr 2014 20:38

A dated report from March 13

http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/congress-pt-thomas-pc-chacko-idukki-syro-malabar-catholic-church/1/349436.html

Bowing to pressure from the Syro Malabar Catholic Church (SMC), the Congress decided to deny PT Thomas, the sitting MP from Idukki, a ticket to contest the Lok Sabha elections slated for April 10. Another prominent Congress MP, PC Chacko, has moved his constituency from Thrissur to Chalakkudi following opposition from a faction in the Congress and also SMC's Thrissur diocese.

These decisions were taken at the 4 hour-long talks between Kerala's Congress leaders and the AICC Screening Committee in New Delhi today. Thomas and Chacko would have faced a tough contest if they had contested from Idukki and Thrissur although they are traditional Congress citadels. The Kerala-based SMC is India's largest Catholic church.

Except Thomas and N. Peethambara Kurup, the Kollam MP, all the 11 sitting Congress members have been issued tickets again. Kurup was sacrificed to give the Kollam seat to the Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP) which joined the United Democratic Front (UDF) three days ago ending its three decade-long membership in the opposition Left Democratic Front (LDF).

Thomas, a close confidant of Chief Minister Oommen Chandy, was dropped following strong opposition from the SMC's Idukki diocese. Thomas became the church's bÃªte noire after he opposed the ongoing agitation by the settler farmers it leads in the state's two high range districts -Idukki and Wayanad- against the Union Ministry of Environment and Forests' (MoEF) decision to implement the K Kasturirangan Report on Western Ghats. The agitators say the report which envisages the inclusion of 13000 sq km as Ecologically Sensitive Areas (ESA) would lead to the takeover of their farmland. Under pressure from Kerala's Congress leaders, the MoEF has now released a draft notification to put the report in cold storage.

Chacko, who was chairman of the Joint Parliamentary Committee that probed the 2G Spectrum scam, fled from Thrissur following opposition from the "I" faction in the Congress and also Syro Malabar church's Thrissur Bishop Mar Andrews Thazhath. While the I faction opposed Chacko for his hostility to it, Bishop Thazhath said the MP should not be given ticket again for his alleged lack of interest in the development of Thrissur.

The farmers' agitation is led by the church and its Idukki diocese's Bishop Mar Mathew Anikkuzhikkattil had demanded that Thomas should not be fielded. This led to a war of words between Thomas and the bishop. "I challenge the bishop to defeat me," Thomas had said.

The bishop threatened the agitators would even field an independent candidate of their own if Thomas was fielded. Kerala Congress (M), the third UDF constituent which is controlled by the church, too was openly backing the agitation and demanding the seat be allotted to it. But Congress denied this and fielded debutant Dean Kuriakose, the state Youth Congress president, from Idukki. The LDF which backed the farmers' agitation fielded the church's legal advisor, Joyce George, as an independent candidate from Idukki. This makes the CPI(M)'s candidates' list having a record number of five independents.

After he was dropped, Thomas lamented: "Some priests bayed for my blood and herded the flock to the Communist camp". CM Oommen Chandy has promised Thomas to be made an AICC secretary.

Thomas was the only major leader from the Congress who held that the agitation was unwarranted as the report should be implemented for the protection of the environment and did not have anything harmful for the farmers. Unlike Thomas, neither his party nor the ruling UDF dared to oppose the agitation fearing a backlash from its traditional allies, the farmer community and the church.

What is the "I" faction? The christians have cleared the forests for their plantations in the ghats.

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 01 Apr 2014 20:52

Gus wrote:is shashi tharoor hands at the lady's hips?

That photo doesn't surprise me at all. Apart from the position of Tharoor's hands, he seems to be standing uncomfortably close to her and sporting a lecherous leer on his face.

Maybe he is thinking that if Mariamma doesn't mind having a "chandy-oommen" (azz-kisser) for a husband, she probably won't mind if hubby's buddy is a "chandy-pidiyan" (azz-grabber).

Congress jokers galore!

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 01 Apr 2014 21:02

Setback for BJP in KA from CSDS polls.

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 01 Apr 2014 21:15

check mariamma's face , does it tell anything

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 01 Apr 2014 21:27

Gus wrote:is shashi tharoor hands at the lady's hips?

I have tweeted photo of Shashi Tharoor as posted by SwamyG ji. Consider retweeting.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 01 Apr 2014 21:33

maitas66 ‏@chinmaykrvd 2h
Vikatan survey done after formation of BJP grand alliance gives NDA 27.55%,AIADMK 24.34 while CSDS gives NDA 22%,ADMK-32.Wonder whoz correct

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 01 Apr 2014 21:44

RajeshA wrote:maitas66 ‏@chinmaykrvd 2h
Vikatan survey done after formation of BJP grand alliance gives NDA 27.55%,AIADMK 24.34 while CSDS gives NDA 22%,ADMK-32.Wonder whoz correct

As I said before poll surveys in India are prone to results bias. Survey questions and samples are selected to provide the desired results.
So need to know who organised the survey?

Nate Silver would give up trying to make sense as its all noise, no signal!

geeth · Post by **geeth** » 01 Apr 2014 21:46

Ha Ha! Sashi Taroor's latest Push-Kar(hand-push) indeed!

geeth · Post by **geeth** » 01 Apr 2014 21:47

Ha Ha! Sashi Taroor's latest Push-Kar(hand-push) indeed!

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 01 Apr 2014 21:50

I will repeat what I said about CNN-IBN tracker to another BR insider -
1.Chordesai lies - Where he is saying BJP is winning landslide, take there is close fight. Somehow he thinks that his survey will lull them. Example - Chattisgrah election survey in December, he gave BJP land slide both in vote and seats, we know it was a close fight.
2.Chor chore se na jaye - Where he says BJP is loosing or a close fight, there BJP may in fact be winning big - Example his survey of Rajasthan.

So this lier does not fool me, hopefully he does not fool others as well.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 01 Apr 2014 21:58

Laissez-faire ‏@FCBtheChamps 4h
CSDS March poll: karnataka: INC: 46%, BJP: 36%, JDS: 12%

Laissez-faire ‏@FCBtheChamps 4h
CSDS says INC: 12-18, BJP: 7 -13

***********

Congress showing good numbers in Kerala, Karnataka, Telangana, Assam and Punjab. Everywhere else only decimation.

JohnTitor · Post by **JohnTitor** » 01 Apr 2014 22:10

Marten wrote:Deposit for a LS general candidate is Rs 25,000. For SC/ST/OBC candidates, it is Rs. 12,500.
A candidate loses this deposit when he/she fails to garner at least 1/6th the total votes cast.

I see. Correct me if I'm wrong but then the main thing about losing the deposit is to do with embarrassment of not being able to garner votes rather than a monetary issue. Right? 25k is a good amount of money but it's nothing to the looters..

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 01 Apr 2014 22:18

Watch CNN IB N live now,interview, Sangrika Madam in dalit colony, hear Modi support (I wish some so called upper caste had that view)

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 01 Apr 2014 22:46

How does the csds setback in karnataka set-off against an apparently improved TN performance and how does this compare with the January survey ?

IIRC, in Jan CSDS predicted 8 for BJP in Karnataka.

That would sort of even out wouldn't it and not wreck the overall tally too much ?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 01 Apr 2014 22:48

What Ieard about N^2 rallies is that people are asking what has he done for the area that he is contesting from specifically? Not opening Infosys or AADHAR card etc.
How has he leveraged his position or influence to advance his area?

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 01 Apr 2014 22:50

RajeshA wrote:SwamyG ji,

Is Shashi Tharkoor also warming up Mrs. Chandy?

No comments. Even with my dark/evil/dirty mind, even if I wanted/desired, I would never dare to stand like that behind any human being - except my wife. Granted the kitchen is small and crowded. I just got the foto from twitter world.

Gus wrote:is shashi tharoor hands at the lady's hips?

I think on the kitchen counter.

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 01 Apr 2014 23:00

svenkat wrote:http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/kerala/vote-religion-and-political-shifts-in-kerala/article5856119.ece

[quote>>
<snip>
Sensing trouble, the Congress leadership went into overdrive and got the Union Ministry of Environment and Forests to issue a draft notification downsizing the areas demarcated by the Kasturirangan panel as “ecologically sensitive” to pacify the angry farmers and the Church. But the Congress could not emerge unscathed from the conflict. It had to withdraw one of its most vocal MPs from the fray in Idukki, a constituency bound by the high ranges, which now has a nominee of the local High Range Protection Council, headed by none other than the Bishop, as its main opponent in the constituency.

<<quote]

So the church is playing both sides, and pushing con race to change environment protection laws!!

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 01 Apr 2014 23:50

KLP Dubey wrote:
Gus wrote:is shashi tharoor hands at the lady's hips?
That photo doesn't surprise me at all. Apart from the position of Tharoor's hands, he seems to be standing uncomfortably close to her and sporting a lecherous leer on his face.Maybe he is thinking that if Mariamma doesn't mind having a "chandy-oommen" (azz-kisser) for a husband, she probably won't mind if hubby's buddy is a "chandy-pidiyan" (azz-grabber). Congress jokers galore!

The look on his face is called Chidambaram look.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 02 Apr 2014 00:10

Supratik wrote:Setback for BJP in KA from CSDS polls.

If anything, BJP has gained in Karnataka compared to 2 months back

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 02 Apr 2014 00:23

nageshks wrote:Assam is proving to be something of a strange case when it comes to surveys. NDTV and CSDS are predicting that the BJP will be wiped out in the state. CSDS gives Cong 44% vote, and the BJP 19%. NDTV, in some strange arithmetic, added up the votes of the Cong and the AUDF and gave 36% of the vote to the combine, giving BJP 18%. On the other hand, CVoter is giving the BJP 30% vote share, and the Cong 29% vote. IBTL has given no vote shares, but predicts 6 seats each for both the Cong. and the BJP+ alliance.

Twitterati are also divided. A couple of AGP afficionados are waxing eloquent how BJP will be wiped out because it refused to ally with the AGP. Others are predicting a sweep for the BJP.

I have family in Assam, and they are divided as well (but they are mentioning only local trends).

Are there any insights from any locals in Assam? What is really happening there?

Nagesh ji, if the past is any guide to go by, CSDS has invariably been better at predicting the vote shares and not quite good at translating them to seats. But in Assam, 44% vote share does not need rocket science to figure out that congress will sweep. So historically their vote share prediction has been decent, meaning BJP will probably get wiped out in Assam.

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 02 Apr 2014 00:25

muraliravi, isn't also the case that CSDS predicted 0 for BJP+ in TN ? So if 6-10, then an improvement ?

James B · Post by **James B** » 02 Apr 2014 00:27

Lot's of bogus voters - in thousands per an assembly constituency. Very scary. I think this is how INC manages to win and nto via EVM

Expose on Headlines Today. 90 mins long

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 02 Apr 2014 01:06

muraliravi wrote:
Supratik wrote:Setback for BJP in KA from CSDS polls.
If anything, BJP has gained in Karnataka compared to 2 months back

Muraliravi-ji,

Can you give a breakdown of all the states that CSDS has reported so far as to the change in popular vote? From what little I can gather, I see about 3-5% increase for the BJP in the states CSDS has surveyed. Do you have confidence in their survey? The sample size isn't giving me a warm fuzzy.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 02 Apr 2014 01:17

Mort and Sanjay Sir,

Please use the following method

http://ibnlive.in.com/searcher/search.php

Type the state you want to search and after a space type tracker.

You should see the latest results and you can also see previous trackers, the search results itself will carry a date. So if you look at the January or February Tracker, you can see previous projections. Once you open it and scroll, you can see all the tables you want for each state. In fact the march tracker will give you vote shares over time, only on the seat tally they just give the current month. So in the results page look for the previous tracker to get the seat tally.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 02 Apr 2014 01:19

James B wrote:Lot's of bogus voters - in thousands per an assembly constituency. Very scary. I think this is how INC manages to win and nto via EVM

This has been going on for decades and has nothing to do with EVM. BJP is also an expert in using this, not to worry

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 02 Apr 2014 01:28

Thanks muraliravi. Big help - quite interesting the changing trends in TN.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 02 Apr 2014 02:14

TN is in flux.
Our Rajaram is in the thick of it!!!

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 02 Apr 2014 02:15

x-posting TWIW

Muppalla wrote:
In a presidential election, monthly tracker does not damage much. However, in Indian style parl election where party-hopping is rampant, the losing party will drown if the perception of death of party is visible as a proof from various surveys.

There is a sinister thing going on with all survey (national or local). Surveys are being fudged to beat the perception of wave in India. If they don't beat the perception INC will not even get 50 seats. To at least make it get 100 the surveys are intelligently cooking data. While cooking, they have to be credible and they give massively to BJP where INC is not a player.

Here is how modus operandi is:
(1) There is a Tsunami of Modi wave
(2) But if you show the wave across India, the candidates will desert
(3) once the desertion occurs, you can't even recover. The waves if via surveys are informed then the loser will lose extremely bad. If you say 100 seats from INC and if these surveys are done honestly, the INC will actually get only 40
(4) In order to save the loser, the surveyor does some tricks. Scenario - UP and Maha both has NaMo wave. If you fudge UP wave from 45/80 to 65/80 and Maha wave of 35/48 to 25/48, it will work wonders. Why? there is no congress in UP to desert but in Maha it can stop desertions.

Now comes a day when all these are not necessary as alliances, nominations are almost complete. You have saved about 10% for the one who is is getting wiped out. Now comes the adjusted surveys.

The spin will be congress recovered, Modi peaked too fast etc.