AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 31 Mar 2014 18:40

IBTL ‏@IndiaBTL 3m
Telangana Assembly
TRS 60
Congress 28
BJP 9
MIM 9
TDP 6
Others 7
TRS to form govt. on its own at this stage #IBTLPoll
Poll

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 31 Mar 2014 19:08

^ that survey appears to be fake.

I Do not trust any survey that gives exact 50% seats to any party.

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 31 Mar 2014 19:24

RajeshA wrote:maitas66 ‏@chinmaykrvd 18m
ThankGod TDP-BJP alliance confirmed.

Ratnakar Sadasyula ‏@ScorpiusMaximus 20m
45 mla and 8 MP seats in Telangana, 18 mla and 5 MP seats in Andhra for BJP as part of BJP-TDP alliance.

Telugu TV news are saying only Telangana seems to be agreed but nothing on residual AP. Even numbers are not final.

8 MPs in T is good deal for BJP. 5 seats in AP is disastrous as those 5 can lead to YSRC win unless those 5 include seats where YSRC is strong like Kadapa, Nellore, etc. and even TDP is expected to lose. Local leader have jumped from INC already to TDP and YSRC. If BJP comes into picture in those areas, they might go for YSRC. *

* Example is a Municipality in Guntur where TDP withdrew to let BJP run. In this week elections looks like it is lost to YSRC because BJP has messed up something there. They lost a seat which, otherwise, is an easy win for TDP.

yvijay · Post by **yvijay** » 31 Mar 2014 20:01

NTV-Nielsen survey:
SA Assembly (175)
YSRC --> 129-133 TDP --> 42-46 Others --> 1-4

SA Loksabha
YSRC --> 19-21 TDP --> 4-6 Others--> 0-1

Total sweep for YSRC

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 31 Mar 2014 20:11

yvijay wrote:NTV-Nielsen survey:
SA Assembly (175)
YSRC --> 129-133 TDP --> 42-46 Others --> 1-4

SA Loksabha
YSRC --> 19-21 TDP --> 4-6 Others--> 0-1

Total sweep for YSRC

NTV ? That explains everything

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 31 Mar 2014 20:14

Sakshi - 100% owned by Jagan. TV5, NTV 25% stakes owned by Jagan. IBTL survey is not too bad.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 31 Mar 2014 20:14

The people predicting this are surly smoking some thing very strong.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 31 Mar 2014 20:28

All surveys have sampling error and sampling bias.
Indian poll surveys have outcome/results driving the sampling.

bhavani · Post by **bhavani** » 31 Mar 2014 20:37

ShyamSP wrote:
RajeshA wrote:maitas66 ‏@chinmaykrvd 18m
ThankGod TDP-BJP alliance confirmed.

Ratnakar Sadasyula ‏@ScorpiusMaximus 20m
45 mla and 8 MP seats in Telangana, 18 mla and 5 MP seats in Andhra for BJP as part of BJP-TDP alliance.
Telugu TV news are saying only Telangana seems to be agreed but nothing on residual AP. Even numbers are not final.

8 MPs in T is good deal for BJP. 5 seats in AP is disastrous as those 5 can lead to YSRC win unless those 5 include seats where YSRC is strong like Kadapa, Nellore, etc. and even TDP is expected to lose. Local leader have jumped from INC already to TDP and YSRC. If BJP comes into picture in those areas, they might go for YSRC. *

* Example is a Municipality in Guntur where TDP withdrew to let BJP run. In this week elections looks like it is lost to YSRC because BJP has messed up something there. They lost a seat which, otherwise, is an easy win for TDP.

TDP and BJP alliance in Seemandhra is not a big issue or an advantage for TDP. The media can make some ruckus out of it and question the alliance since BJP supported the splitting of state. But i doubt if TDP can gain any traction from this alliance in Seemandhra, but will gain significantly in Telangana

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 31 Mar 2014 20:46

All surveys give SA to Jagan. So there may be some truth in it.

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 31 Mar 2014 21:08

Supratik wrote:All surveys give SA to Jagan. So there may be some truth in it.

Indeed such a corrupt fellow, who has been jailed and out on bail, seem to have worked some combination for his advantage quickly. People seem to forget that it was his government and later his support to con race at center and state that resulted in division of AP. Not to mention his ownership of media houses that look over all this, including corruption.

kittigadu · Post by **kittigadu** » 01 Apr 2014 06:41

RamaY wrote:Kittugadu garu,

How many MP seats BJP can win on its own and how many of 6+5 it can win by taking TDP offer?

If the difference is >0 then it is worth going together.

2019 elections, IMHO, will be completely different. Read this to find why I think so The Prize - That is India

My opinion is 2 seats in T and 1 in Andhra on their own.
If they ally with TDP, mabe 3-4 in Andhra and 3-4 in Telangana.

I am all for allying with TDP in Andhra, whatever the terms, but not in T.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 01 Apr 2014 06:48

kittigadu wrote:
RamaY wrote:Kittugadu garu,

How many MP seats BJP can win on its own and how many of 6+5 it can win by taking TDP offer?

If the difference is >0 then it is worth going together.

2019 elections, IMHO, will be completely different. Read this to find why I think so The Prize - That is India
My opinion is 2 seats in T and 1 in Andhra on their own.

Can you please be specific, Kittigadu-ji? Which 2 in T, and which 1 in SA?

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 01 Apr 2014 07:38

I wish I could have been in India for these elections. both in T and SA, I have a feeling 2014 will be the year when long-term processes start taking more concrete shape. that doesn't mean this will be a victory for saffron. if anything, it will be a major no-show for Saffron. but let the devils shine in their moment of victory. it will be short lived. TDP might yet pull off a surprise and gain majority in SA, but nothing is a surety until the results come out.

in T, this will be the beginning of the ex-feudal+Ashrafi alliance unmasking itself. tho it will take a few years to show. what I'm trying to see is how far the INC++ will go to gain their ends. in other words, how much of their coercive power will they use in the coming years? if the "center" of INC moves quietly into oblivion, the feudal+Ashrafi alliance can be dealt with (might not be entirely peaceful even in this scenario). but longer they insist on sticking on, the greater will be the coercive force used.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 01 Apr 2014 08:12

devesh wrote: in T, this will be the beginning of the ex-feudal+Ashrafi alliance unmasking itself. tho it will take a few years to show. what I'm trying to see is how far the INC++ will go to gain their ends. in other words, how much of their coercive power will they use in the coming years? if the "center" of INC moves quietly into oblivion, the feudal+Ashrafi alliance can be dealt with (might not be entirely peaceful even in this scenario). but longer they insist on sticking on, the greater will be the coercive force used.

Devesh-ji,
You have been speaking about the coming revolt against the feudal-Ashrafi alliance for quite sometime. For the last 60 years after independence, it has never happened. Even the Communists have been assimilated into the polity without breaking the feudals' hold. Telangana is still ruled by the Doras (of one stamp or the other). What makes you so sure that they are going to be challenged, much less defeated?

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 01 Apr 2014 09:20

nageshks wrote:
devesh wrote: in T, this will be the beginning of the ex-feudal+Ashrafi alliance unmasking itself. tho it will take a few years to show. what I'm trying to see is how far the INC++ will go to gain their ends. in other words, how much of their coercive power will they use in the coming years? if the "center" of INC moves quietly into oblivion, the feudal+Ashrafi alliance can be dealt with (might not be entirely peaceful even in this scenario). but longer they insist on sticking on, the greater will be the coercive force used.
Devesh-ji,
You have been speaking about the coming revolt against the feudal-Ashrafi alliance for quite sometime. For the last 60 years after independence, it has never happened. Even the Communists have been assimilated into the polity without breaking the feudals' hold. Telangana is still ruled by the Doras (of one stamp or the other). What makes you so sure that they are going to be challenged, much less defeated?

you need to move out of your angst against the recent "split".

1. the "coming revolt" is in future. who knows what shape it will take? I certainly don't. my hope is that the INC 2G will quietly withdraw in coming years. best outcome as far as I can see.

2. the fighting capabilities of the doras has been eliminated. they've been kicked out of their home villages. they don't dare go back even now for fear of repercussions.

3. they've sold of rural countryside lands in droves and moved into primarily urban centers. this is a major weakness.

4. they no longer hold the "dominance" over people's lives that they used to before. a crucial portion of their former "hold" has been cut simply because of modern economic realities: there is a portion of old demographic which has moved into "secular" sphere of roti-kapda-makan which no longer is dependent on them for income.

5. BC's/OBC's can no longer be "controlled" as they used to back in the day. a "critical mass" has been reached which will no longer make this possible.

the real issue now is how far the "center" goes. it is the Indian State's coercive power that is now at play.

also, please do some research on how the Razakars were brought to heel. perhaps if the Indian State and their local collaborators hadn't been so keen to "forgive and forget" we wouldn't even be in this situation right now. the people should have been allowed to go 'wild' for a few months after Op-Polo. the dregs and their attendant bootlickers would have been liquidated en masse. instead, the Jihadis were sent to Pakistan, the leadership of the movement was bribed and coerced into "mainstream". happened on both sides: T and SA. and the Hindu collaborators on both sides breathed a sigh of relief.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 01 Apr 2014 10:03

devesh wrote: also, please do some research on how the Razakars were brought to heel. perhaps if the Indian State and their local collaborators hadn't been so keen to "forgive and forget" we wouldn't even be in this situation right now. the people should have been allowed to go 'wild' for a few months after Op-Polo. the dregs and their attendant bootlickers would have been liquidated en masse. instead, the Jihadis were sent to Pakistan, the leadership of the movement was bribed and coerced into "mainstream". happened on both sides: T and SA. and the Hindu collaborators on both sides breathed a sigh of relief.

Sorry, I am not very familiar with this bit of history. Do you have any particular references? And what do you mean by collaborators in SA? Who collaborated with the Razakars in SA?

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 01 Apr 2014 17:19

Laissez-faire ‏@FCBtheChamps 16m
CSDS March Poll:AP: INC:18%, TRS:13%, YSRC:21%, TDP:29%, BJP:8%. Poll predicts TDP winning seats in Telangana. Our opnion:looks realistic

This means YSRCP is really strong in Seemandhra. TDP's popularity may be distributed over TG and AP. YSRCP's is concentrated in Seemandhra.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 01 Apr 2014 17:26

Now tell me. TDP is ahead of YSRC by 7% in CSDS. 7% in a straight contest means sweep of seats by TDP in AP. Just want to announce here that how much of fudged the surveys so far related AP.

I will write the details of how surveys are used.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 01 Apr 2014 18:06

RajeshA wrote:Laissez-faire ‏@FCBtheChamps 16m
CSDS March Poll:AP: INC:18%, TRS:13%, YSRC:21%, TDP:29%, BJP:8%. Poll predicts TDP winning seats in Telangana. Our opnion:looks realistic

This means YSRCP is really strong in Seemandhra. TDP's popularity may be distributed over TG and AP. YSRCP's is concentrated in Seemandhra.

in a straight contest, even a 2% gap will make one go over the other by a lot of seats. Before all this mayhem started it was 48% to TDP and 45% to congress or reverse.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 01 Apr 2014 21:47

If Jagan gets majority on his own I will be surprised. My guess is a fractured verdict. TDP could still be the biggest in the Vidhan Sabha but if the other 2 ally, it's game over.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 01 Apr 2014 22:03

OK, the maths suggest an edge for TDP in SA which it can convert if it allies with BJP. In T TDP needs to concede some space to BJP and the alliance may top if TRS-INC don't ally. From CSDS survey.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 01 Apr 2014 22:08

Election Tracker: TDP rises in Seemandhra as YSR dips: Firstpost

In Seemandhra, TDP: 39% YSRCP: 33% BJP: 7% INC: 7%

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 01 Apr 2014 22:48

RajeshA wrote:Election Tracker: TDP rises in Seemandhra as YSR dips: Firstpost

In Seemandhra, TDP: 39% YSRCP: 33% BJP: 7% INC: 7%

From the above,

In Telangana, most people gave credit for the bifurcation to the TRS, while a considerably lower number of people credited the Congress leadership in Delhi. In terms of alliances, more BJP supporters than TDP supporters, wanted a TDP-BJP alliance. The TDP supporters appeared ambivalent on the issue.

So there is a disconnect between what people think and what their leaders think ? T-TDP leaders want a alliance with BJP but T-TDP voters are ambivalent. T-BJP leaders at least their chief don't want a alliance with TDP but T-BJP supporters want a alliance. Interesting

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 01 Apr 2014 22:54

Jan:
Vote share= YCP:45,TDP:33
MPs= YCP:11-19, TDP:9-15
March:
YCP:33,TDP:39
MPs:YCP: 9-15,TDP:13-19
And still ppl says YCP Graph is nt down

There is a sinister thing going on with all survey (national or local). Surveys are being fudged to beat the perception of wave in India. If they don't beat the perception INC will not even get 50 seats. To atleast make it get100 the surveys are intelligently cooking data. While cooking, they have to be credible and they give massively to BJP where INC is not a player.

Here is how modus operandi is:
(1) There is a Tsunami of Modi wave
(2) But if you show the wave across India, the candidates will desert
(3) once the desertion occurs, you can't even recover. The waves if via surveys are informed then the loser will lose extremely bad. If you say 100 seats from INC if we do these surveys honestly, the INC will actually get only 40
(4) In order to save the loser, the surveyor does some tricks. Scenario - UP and Maha both has NaMo wave. If you fudge UP wave from 45/80 to 65/80 and Maha wave of 35/48 to 25/48, it will work wonders. Why? there is no congress in UP to desert but in Maha I can stop desertions.

Now comes a day when all these are not necessary as alliances, nominations are complete. You have saved about 10% for the one who is getting wipeout. Now comes the adjusted surveys.

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 01 Apr 2014 22:54

T-TDP's voter base mostly consists of people in Hyderabad where about 50 lakhs are from AP. Naturally none of those as well as some of the others would have liked BJP's stand on AP's bifurcation and naturally want no alliance with BJP.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 01 Apr 2014 22:57

Rony wrote: So there is a disconnect between what people think and what their leaders think ? T-TDP leaders want a alliance with BJP but T-TDP voters are ambivalent. T-BJP leaders at least their chief don't want a alliance with TDP but T-BJP supporters want a alliance. Interesting

There is no BJP in SA even if the state is not split but for TDP leaders if they don't go with BJP they have to close shop in T. They have to bring BJP to SA and give it life in SA to have its own life in T.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 01 Apr 2014 22:59

If that is true then Kishan Reddy should be ready for the tandoor.

He should put aside his personal dislike for TDP and work to ensure Modi gets the high majority he needs to transform India.

It looks like he is seeing more than there is in TDP.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 01 Apr 2014 23:01

Ramana garu, Its all set and TDP and BJP are going together in AP and TG. There will some who dislikes but have to live with it.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 01 Apr 2014 23:02

So long as they know if they sabotage, they will get what they should be getting.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 01 Apr 2014 23:16

People are saying BJP-TDP alliance is done deal. BJP gets seats according to the formula:

Telangana: 8 (LS), 45 (VS)
Seemandhra: 5 (LS), 13 (VS)

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 01 Apr 2014 23:19

Of the above how many will the BJP win?
And how many will TDP win?

Where does Jana Satta fit in?

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 01 Apr 2014 23:42

In AP TDP=16 BJP=3 YSRC=6 (include Jana Sena)
In TG TDP=3 BJP= 3 TRS=4 MIM=1 INC=6 (one of TDP is LokSatta)

Loksatta will win India's largest LS constituency called as Malkajgiri.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 02 Apr 2014 01:19

Thats good Muppala garu.. that is nice 6 seats for BJP and 25 seats for NDA.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 02 Apr 2014 01:39

In the above article,

For Seemandhra, it’s unequivocally Narendra Modi while in Telangana, people favoured Modi and Rahul equally. While 30 per cent of the respondents in Seemandhra wanted Narendra Modi to be the prime minster, only 3 percent supported Rahul Gandhi, obviously an indication of the ire of people in Seemandhra against the Congress. In February, the corresponding figures were 17 and 5. The rise in share of people who favoured Modi in Seemandhra was substantially higher than that in Telangana.

What is that I was telling on this forum about psyche

. The people on the SA side will get back to business pretty fast and they will forget the bifurcation. They will all rise and develop fast though there will be a small fissure for next capital city. This entire bifurcation from a development perspective will be a loss to TG if they don't shed their covert-and-overt mindset of SA-mukt-TG. In the next five years they have to compete for investments which was not the case so far.

On the SA side we all should use our avenues, and press for an anti-conversion law on the lines of Gujarat or Orissa. Once the Jagan's mafia and EJism is neutralized dies it will be a really a new start and probably a golden one.

Kishen Reddy is not a bad guy and I have met him many times. OFBJP has a conference call with him last Friday

. He is doing based on the TG folks aspirations. The central-BJP forced TG-BJP to go with TDP against their wishes because the elite of TG population likes to see a TG with no Andhra domination or involvement and for them the split makes no sense if TDP is still a force in TG. See the situation in the voting percentages. Congress 35% Vs TRS 34% Vs TDP+BJP 23%. A good campaign and flow of money will make the contest even. If a hung assembly comes and favorable government and governor can help TDP+BJP+spin-off from Congress can rule the state. TRS may go with INC probably.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 02 Apr 2014 01:45

If BJP+TDP+LS+JS can create a hung verdict in Tg, the battle is half won.

SA need to go into TDP hands on its own, that is what BJP should support TDP to achieve.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 02 Apr 2014 01:48

Muppalla wrote:In AP TDP=16 BJP=3 YSRC=6 (include Jana Sena)
In TG TDP=3 BJP= 3 TRS=4 MIM=1 INC=6 (one of TDP is LokSatta)

Loksatta will win India's largest LS constituency called as Malkajgiri.

How many of the 6 seats that Congress could win is because of the division? IOW could they have won those anyway due to candidate preferences?

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 02 Apr 2014 01:59

If the bifurcation did not happen, they could have won same over 42 seats. Even at the height of NTR wave they won.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 02 Apr 2014 02:02

Muppalla wrote:If the bifurcation did not happen, they could have won same over 42 seats. Even at the height of NTR wave they won.

Someone here had made the point earlier that AP needed to be split because it always votes wholesale for INC. If Con party does worse in SA than they would have without the split, at least some good will have come out of it. Hopefully their gains in T won't cover all their losses in SA.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 02 Apr 2014 02:05

nachiket wrote: Someone here had made the point here earlier that AP needed to be split because it always votes wholesale for INC.

It has some truth because after bifurcation there is no INC on the SA. Later the space now that is open and BJP could occupy. It could be TDP Vs BJP Vs EJs for 2019 if BJP does not shoot itself.