Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

harbans
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby harbans » 04 Apr 2014 01:40

Rajesh ji, there is no sanctity in the State of J&K anymore than there is of the erstwhile Travancore, Hyderabad, Madras, Bombay, Bengal, UP etc etc. It vanished with Pak, China doing land grabs. Even apart from that the concept of a State never had permanent sanctity in India. The constitution can be amended for sure. Right numbers.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby RamaY » 04 Apr 2014 01:47

Nothing will happen if one fine day GoI removes A370.

How many MPs can say they want special status to JK but not their state?

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Prem Kumar » 04 Apr 2014 02:02

Paging muraliravi, nageshks & anyone else who has insight: can you guys please do a big favor?

We are trying to mobilize canvassing efforts & want to focus on swing constituencies. Could you, off the top of your head, list the swing constituencies per State?

For example, I heard that Anand & Khera districts fall into the swing category in Gujarat

Thanks in advance!

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby jamwal » 04 Apr 2014 02:05

Like I said in earlier post:
Udhampur-Doda needs some help.
Jammu-Poonch with some consolidation of Hindu votes.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby satya » 04 Apr 2014 02:06

Here's the gossip topic for Battlefield UP :

1) BSP's votebank is not longer intact as in past . There will be cross voting but how many is an open question .

2) UP muslim voters exercising their right to vote will come down this time ( SG & co.'s last ditch efforts of courting mullahs openly case in point ) .Consensus around 'Stop Modi = last barrier before return of muslim rule in India' issue losing its traction. While UP muslims not going to vote for BJP but are they going to vote at all ?

3) UP Brahmins are the real wild card this time . BJP relying exclusively on Sanghis to get them on board. Is it sufficient ?

My question is : does any of the survey discount these three issues/factors ?

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Prem Kumar » 04 Apr 2014 02:10

jamwal wrote:Like I said in earlier post:
Udhampur-Doda needs some help.
Jammu-Poonch with some consolidation of Hindu votes.


Thanks jamwal. I will compile the inputs from all posts & publish it

ramana
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby ramana » 04 Apr 2014 02:12

Answer to your question. NO.

None of the surveys count any factors for they are for shaping the electorate and not informing.
There was a concern that BSP voters will vote for development as they see stagnation.

Overfeed on caste, die of starvation.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby fanne » 04 Apr 2014 02:13

UP Brahmins, I am also hearing not so comfortable news. US based UP BRAHMINS solidly with Modi, they should call back home and make a difference. Do it please!!

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby gandharva » 04 Apr 2014 02:18

UP Brahmins aren't going anywhere. They know that if Modi doesn't win than they will be washing feet of Bahanji for next 20 years.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby ramana » 04 Apr 2014 02:58

satya, Right after Emergency the newsppaers as TV was DD only in those days, all used to report a positive Congress support for m public eventhough there was ground swell support for Janata Party. I and my firends walked from IITM to Marina Beach to hear the Janata party leaders and new the jig was up for Congress when we saw the crowds. in fairness Mrs Gandhi also drew a lot of crowd but her speech was lacking in conviction.
The press and DD kept the charade till late 2:00 AM on counting nights and suddenly DD annaouncer started telling the truth. usual apologists blamed IB for faulty survey that made her declare elections. The apologists who were benefitting from her tyranny wanted it to continue.

So same phenomoena we see now only difference is the apoloists are supporting COngress without much fear of danda but greed.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby gandharva » 04 Apr 2014 03:22

Watch this "peace" vs "peace"

http://www.timesnow.tv/Debate-Polarised ... 451394.cms

6:20 onwards

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Agnimitra » 04 Apr 2014 03:34

fanne wrote:UP Brahmins, I am also hearing not so comfortable news. US based UP BRAHMINS solidly with Modi, they should call back home and make a difference. Do it please!!

I'm seeing some US-based UP brahmins root for Khujliwal of all people. I thought it was first flush reaction, but even after his Delhi CM joke they're still gung ho.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Anantha » 04 Apr 2014 03:48

harbans wrote:Rajesh ji, there is no sanctity in the State of J&K anymore than there is of the erstwhile Travancore, Hyderabad, Madras, Bombay, Bengal, UP etc etc. It vanished with Pak, China doing land grabs. Even apart from that the concept of a State never had permanent sanctity in India. The constitution can be amended for sure. Right numbers.


1st thing Modi can do on this front is to call for dialogue with Pakis and issue a statement that the talks will involve how Pakis will transfer POK back to India. 2nd expel any foreign diplomat who tries to meet Hurryrat types/ Arundhati, bhushan types and then repel 370. No one (read US) would give a damn, especially if a simple contract for one Boeing plane is given.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Anantha » 04 Apr 2014 03:57

Some unintended effect. Khujli is dividing the precious muslim vote more than the Hindu vote. Looks like this months installment has not reached AK49.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby vivek.rao » 04 Apr 2014 04:06

^^
Fruits Of Polarisation
The Muslims are angry with Mulayam and wary of Modi. So, which party stands to gain from the minority factor? Virendra Nath Bhatt reports


According to community leaders and political observers, Muslims see Modi’s BJP as a different animal from the one led by Atal Bihari Vajpayee. The community is all set to go for tactical voting, which will be more strident, compared to previous elections in the state. The tactical voting per se will be negative voting and the community will exercise its franchise in favour of a candidate who is best suited to defeat the BJP.

Much to the chagrin of the SP, the Congress has emerged as the most unexpected beneficiary of the communal polarisation in western UP. The blessing in disguise for the Congress is turning out to be a curse for the SP as well as the BSP .

Congress candidate Imran Masood’s hate speech against Modi in Saharanpur, and his subsequent arrest has triggered a massive polarisation of Muslims in favour of the Congress in western UP. The sudden turn of events in Saharanpur, which made a strong impact in the region, has caught the SP and the BSP off guard. The BSP is already struggling hard to save its turf from communal polarisation in the wake of the Muzaffarnagar riots.


Now the strategy is clear for Congis. DOn't care about Hindus. Muslims with 2% Liberals are good enough for them with 5% Dhimmi Hindus.

Interest thing is AAP is going to even give up their own Muslim vote to help SONIA

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby sunnyP » 04 Apr 2014 04:56

RajeshA wrote:
According to Article 370, India really has only powers over defense, foreign affairs and currency in J&K. All the rest have to be approved by J&K Assembly.

So one can really forget having referendums in Jammu & Ladakh mandated by the Center.

What Modi Govt. ought to do is .....



What he should do is change the demographics of the state completely. Somehow flood the valley with migrants from other parts of India. Within 10 years the problem could be solved since the anti Indian elements will be turned into a tiny minority.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Agnimitra » 04 Apr 2014 05:37

Reverse EVM magic?

An EVM that 'votes' only for BJP stuns poll staff in Assam
GUWAHATI: An electronic voting machine raised many eyebrows across the state during a mandatory mock poll in Jorhat on Tuesday. Every time a button was pressed, the vote went in favour of BJP.

The Jorhat parliamentary constituency returning officer and deputy commissioner Vishal Vasant Solanki told TOI that all EVMs in his custody are being put through a second level of test by engineers of the Electronics Corporation of India Ltd (ECIL), one of the two companies from Hyderabad, which manufactures EVMs.

This Jorhat Lok Sabha seat has Congress stalwart and former Union minister Bijoy Krishna Handique locking horns with BJP youth and tea tribal leader Kamakhya Tasa. This will be Handique's record seventh successive attempt for the Lok Sabha election. Jorhat goes to the polls on April 7.

State chief electoral officer Vijyandra on Wednesday said, "An EVM in Jorhat was found malfunctioning yesterday. It is a defective machine and it was noticed when EVMs were readied in front of representatives of all political parties. We will not send the faulty unit to any polling station."

An EVM consists of two units, a control unit and a balloting unit. Both unites are connected with cable. The balloting unit is a small box-like device, on top of which each candidate and his or her election symbol appears. The voter selects his candidate by pressing the blue button.

The returning officer said, "These EVMs were here for long. Usually, EVMs are kept in the custody of the deputy commissioner and during elections they are taken to strong rooms."

Congress lodged a complaint with the Election Commission of India on Wednesday and demanded thorough inspection of all EVMs in just not Jorhat, but the entire state. Pradesh Congress Committee general secretary Ranjan Bora, who lodged the complaint with EC, said, "The mock poll was done at random and the EVM for Teok assembly constituency took everyone by surprise. When the hand symbol button was pressed for Congress, the vote was found to be recorded in favour of BJP."

He said the incident has fuelled suspicion in their minds that EVMs may have been tampered with to favour a particular political party.

Interestingly, after Congress got an overwhelming mandate in the 2011 assembly polls, Asom Gana Parishad had lodged a complaint against Congress accusing it of tinkering with EVMs. The Congress leadership had rejected this charge and pointed out that EVM results could not be manipulated.

"EVM tampering could be possible in the Jorhat case," a senior Congress leader said.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby RamaY » 04 Apr 2014 05:39

^ No. The secular EVM majic. They are testing with test data. Also using diversionary tactics.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Agnimitra » 04 Apr 2014 05:42

- self-deleted
Last edited by Agnimitra on 04 Apr 2014 06:01, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Agnimitra » 04 Apr 2014 05:53

RamaY wrote:^ No. The secular EVM majic. They are testing with test data. Also using diversionary tactics.

Probable. It is the single most deceptive factor this time. The fact that it can happen is proved by this.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Shanmukh » 04 Apr 2014 06:38

Prem Kumar wrote:Paging muraliravi, nageshks & anyone else who has insight: can you guys please do a big favor?

We are trying to mobilize canvassing efforts & want to focus on swing constituencies. Could you, off the top of your head, list the swing constituencies per State?

For example, I heard that Anand & Khera districts fall into the swing category in Gujarat

Thanks in advance!


I do not pretend to be an expert in every state, Prem Kumar-ji. But of the states that I do follow a bit, here is my list. (Note I have listed only BJP constituencies, not NDA constituencies. Also note, Assam and Haryana have more swing constituencies because BJP has fewer cadre on the ground. The one factor I am truly worried about in non-traditional BJP states is lack of sufficient BJP cadre.)

Swing Constituencies for BJP
Assam:
1) Silchar
2) Mangaldoi
3) Tezpur
4) Nagaon (Nowgong)
5) Jorhat
6) Lakhimpur

Actually Nagaon and Lakhimpur are a bit pro-BJP, but it is better to be safe than sorry.

Chhattisgarh:
1) Bastar
2) Kanker

Haryana:
1) Karnal
2) Bhiwani-Mahendragarh
3) Faridabad

Himachal Pradesh:
1) Kangra
2) Shimla

Jammu & Kashmir
1) Udhampur

Karnataka:
1) Belgaum
2) Bijapur
3) Uttara Kannada (Karwar)
4) Tumkur
5) Bangalore South
6) Chikballapur

Kerala:
1) Thiruvananthapuram

Rajasthan:
1) Jhunjhunu
2) Jaipur Rural

Tamil Nadu
1) Coimbatore
2) Kanyakumari
Last edited by Shanmukh on 04 Apr 2014 08:13, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby anmol » 04 Apr 2014 07:08

Image

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby johneeG » 04 Apr 2014 07:55

Once one believes that 'magic' exists, then the question is who wields it? Is it the kongis, is it the local admin or is it the phoreners? Depending on who wields it, their intentions/objectives might be different.

If the kongis wield it, then their intention would be to increase the share of nth front & cut lotus.
If the local admin wields it, then the their intention will depend on who is locally powerful.
If the phoreners wield it, then...

...then, they may want to brew a revolution. How to brew up a revolution? Generally, the incumbent sarkaar is discredited and then there comes a person/group which claims to represent the common people. How to discredit the sarkaar? There are several ways. One such way is by raising questions on elections or method of obtaining power. Now, people's support to NaMo is clear. Any other result will raise eyebrows immediately. So, whats a better way? Allow NaMo to win and 1/2 yrs later, show that there was 'magic' i.e. the redux of Indira Priyadarshini's 75. Then, Fordriwal can take to streets.

Any which way, in the long run, this is not good. Better to go with manual way.

Also, just because there is a victory does not mean its all good. The first 1/2 yrs is the time for major house cleaning otherwise the reign itself may get cut short. If there is immediate house cleaning in the first 1/2 yrs, then that may ease the reign and ensure its longevity.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Santosh » 04 Apr 2014 08:20

Odisha on verge of being Modi-fied
http://www.niticentral.com/2014/04/02/o ... 06576.html

The unprecedented popular fervour for Narendra Modi has successfully elevated BJP’s poll prospects in Odisha. Despite organisational lapses and a sedate State leadership, the party has virtually replaced main Opposition Congress and successfully challenging ruling Biju Janata Dal (BJD) as its prime political rival. So much so that BJP has emerged as the top contender in at least 10 of the State’s 21 Lok Sabha constituencies.

Analysts say the miracle was triggered by Narendra Modi’s two public meetings in Odisha. The first was in February 11 in State capital Bhubaneswar and the next in March 14 at Sambalpur. “The entire political scenario is set to swing more in BJP’s favour after Modi’s three political outings in Western Odisha – Nuapada, Bolangir and Rourkela – on April 4,” senior State leader and member of party’s national executive Bijoy Mohapatra said.

While Monday’s CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS national election tracker projects 3-7 Lok Sabha seats for BJP in Odisha, reports from ground zero suggest the party could make it in at least 10 LS constituencies after Modi’s April 4 visit.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby pankajs » 04 Apr 2014 08:22

Ashok Malik ‏@MalikAshok 1h

Just back from a short trip to UP. Will continue to stick my neck out and say Rahul is vulnerable in Amethi

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Prem Kumar » 04 Apr 2014 08:39

nageshks wrote:
I do not pretend to be an expert in every state, Prem Kumar-ji. But of the states that I do follow a bit, here is my list. (Note I have listed only BJP constituencies, not NDA constituencies. Also note, Assam and Haryana have more swing constituencies because BJP has fewer cadre on the ground. The one factor I am truly worried about in non-traditional BJP states is lack of sufficient BJP cadre.)


Thanks a lot nageshks-ji! Much appreciated.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Hari Seldon » 04 Apr 2014 08:55

^^10 seats in Odisha??!! That's almost half the 21 seats in the state...

The mind reels only. I'd like to believe it but seems too far-fetched. Anyway, let the polls tell.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby niran » 04 Apr 2014 09:47

when that Ulema guy muttered in Azamgarh
I am fighting against adharma(the exact word he used) exactly as Arjun fought against adharma in Mahabharat
when we have not forgiven Modi for 1 riot we will not forgive Mulayam for 178 riots

me was just about 20 meters away sipping chai while waiting for me Amby to be repaired me says
uh!oh! damn you mulla, may you die tonite watching your wife run away with your cousin and your body be discovered next century, I was certain rioting gonna happen within 24 hours Fartawa vending would start in earnest
but the repairman(my guess is he cannot even read out his own name) chuckled at my suggestion that he hurry up and be prepared for the worst

he says- sahib( naarthies address higher ups) no need to worry, they are doing it to protect themselves from repercussions.

this sentence and me had a tubelight moment, since moi landing always felt there was something amiss, the mainority was totally uninvolved

the repairman further explained that there is sanaata(silence usually due to something fearful or bad) in musalmans mohalla they have never seen or heard this, a Hindu united with Hindutava and great pride, they are fearful
so as a protection he is muttering this.

and true to him nothing happened, no fartawa no nothing, not even a squeak anainst this Blasphemy of uttering the name of Mahabharat and comparing himself with Arjun.

what say Gurus here?

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby member_28173 » 04 Apr 2014 10:04

pankajs wrote:Image
Image


Now I want MNS to support Maha Yuti... I am biggest swing voter. :)

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby pankajs » 04 Apr 2014 10:13

Not many takers for PM this poll season
http://www.business-standard.com/articl ... 156_1.html
Although Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)'s prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi might be the Congress' enemy number one, in private, many Congressmen blame Prime Minister (PM) Manmohan Singh for the party's current plight. Congress leader from Kerala P C Chacko had openly voiced these concerns.
Recalling Munna's worry on how history will be remember him .. All he has to do is take a pulse on the matter within his own party and remember the treatment of PVNR's legacy by his own party.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Malayappan » 04 Apr 2014 10:20

nageshks might find this interesting! Guess it is not yet posted!

Sweeping Mood for poriborton

That is on Upper Assam.

Some excerpts
many Assamese-speaking Muslims in Upper (eastern) Assam say they will support the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate

Even Congress insiders concede that the BJP, despite its failure to consolidate votes through an alliance with the AGP, may still retain its tally of four Lok Sabha seats from the state and possibly add a few.

Jorhat seems bent on overturning facile caste and community equations. If many Muslims are ready to back Modi, a large number of Ahoms believe that the Congress’s calculation of fielding Handique, an Ahom, against the BJP’s tea tribe candidate, Kamakhya Prasad Tasa, will not work this time.
Congress still enjoys the support of the Bengali-speaking Muslims in constituencies such as Nagaon and elsewhere in lower (western) Assam, but Upper Assam seems ready to jump on the Modi bandwagon.
“I haven’t been to Gujarat but we want something like that for Assam too — for our economy and education,” Das said.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby pankajs » 04 Apr 2014 10:39

BJP making inroads in Bihar's backward fold
To raise its tally in the state, party gives tickets to extreme backward classes' candidates; volunteers dine with them
http://www.business-standard.com/articl ... 157_1.html
In fact, in selection of candidates for the Lok Sabha elections, the BJP and its allies have given tickets to four candidates belonging to EBCs. The Janata Dal (United) has offered the same number of tickets to candidates from this group. The Rashtriya Janata Dal-Congress combine, on the other hand, has offered only two seats to EBC candidates.

In Bihar's electoral politics, EBCs, with a vote share in excess of 35 per cent, constitute the largest social group. That is why Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has been nursing this influential group with targeted schemes. Of late, the BJP is aggressively trying to make inroads, reportedly with help from Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) volunteers. The RSS, which had a token presence in the state, has been growing steadily in the past four years. The organisation now has nearly 1,000 branches in Bihar, registering a growth of 20 per cent in the last four years, according to RSS leader Rajesh Pandey.

"RSS volunteers, most of them from the upper castes, visit villages populated by Dalits and EBCs. They put tilak on the forehead of the villagers and dine with them. Through such campaigns, the BJP and its sister organisations have been sending the message to deprived sections of the society that they care for them," says a Patna-based Left-leaning political observer. For the record though, the RSS says it has nothing to do with politics. "Whatever we do is a part of our effort to bring all sections of the society together and we have been doing this for years," says Pandey.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Singha » 04 Apr 2014 10:44

those assamese speaking muslims of upper assam are a limited number...settled in middle ages sometime under Ahom role..the ahoms put their POWs to good use and settled them in a belt along the arunachal frontier as farmers and settlers. so they are as assamese as anyone else....not to be seen as a sikular vote bank. many are very well educated and urban towns have their progeny among the educated elite.

I saw this on fbook : This is the first ever election that everyone is fighting against the opposition rather than the ruling party.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Virendra » 04 Apr 2014 11:06

sunnyP wrote:
RajeshA wrote:
According to Article 370, India really has only powers over defense, foreign affairs and currency in J&K. All the rest have to be approved by J&K Assembly.

So one can really forget having referendums in Jammu & Ladakh mandated by the Center.

What Modi Govt. ought to do is .....



What he should do is change the demographics of the state completely. Somehow flood the valley with migrants from other parts of India. Within 10 years the problem could be solved since the anti Indian elements will be turned into a tiny minority.

Although I don't prefer but yes that is one way of doing it. The Pak-China way i.e. Sunni-Han way.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby SanjayC » 04 Apr 2014 11:12

^^^ Patel told Nehru to settle ex-servicemen in Kashmir to balance out the population, but Nehru shot down the idea with extreme prejudice. The guy was an idiot -- the result was that his own community (Hindu pandits) got genocided later.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Singha » 04 Apr 2014 11:27

>> the result was that his own community (Hindu pandits)

there are some grave doubts about what his real community exactly was :mrgreen:

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby negi » 04 Apr 2014 11:30

Virendra wrote:Although I don't prefer but yes that is one way of doing it. The Pak-China way i.e. Sunni-Han way.

Unfortunately BDs are landing up there.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby niran » 04 Apr 2014 11:51

Congress dirty tricks dept. at its best
cobra news is propagating a sting were it proves
that those who brought down the babri mosque
had prior demolition training

though this has caused a lot of mirth
amongst the cadres and volunteers the upper echlon
are taking it seriously and a complaint has been filed with CEC.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Agnimitra » 04 Apr 2014 13:46

negi wrote:
Virendra wrote:Although I don't prefer but yes that is one way of doing it. The Pak-China way i.e. Sunni-Han way.

Unfortunately BDs are landing up there.

And Rohingyas, too.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby SanjayC » 04 Apr 2014 14:11

^^^ India was supposed to be the refuge of Hindus in 1947 after Partition, but it seems it has become the refuge of Muslims from all over the world. Well, if Hindus don't take a interest in keeping a watch on who is entering their home, who is to blame if one day they have to pay through their nose for the stupidity?


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