The whispers are that KCR is going to Delhi to meet Sonia. The deal seems to be INC-55, TRS-45, MIM-9, CPI-10 is being planned. Parl seats will be more to INC. This is whole plan and otherwise what's the point of bifurcation.Hyderabad: Contrary to few survey reports that have predicted YSR Congress is much ahead of his arch rival Telugu Desam party in Seemandhra, a latest survey report telecast by CNN-IBN on Tuesday night clearly stated Telugu Desam and BJP are racing ahead of Jagan Mohan Reddy's YSR Congress in Seemandhra region in the run up to Lok Sabha polls.
However, in Telangana region it is going to be close fight between Congress and TRS to secure majority seats in Lok Sabha as per the survey report.
The latest survey report predicts Congress will get 4 to 8 Seats, YSR Congress to get 9 to 15, TDP to get 13 to 19 and TRS to get 4 to 8 seats
According to a Pre-poll survey conducted by Lokniti-CSDS-IBN in March 2014, there is a significant increase in vote share by TDP-BJP, which is considered pro-bifurcation of state, than YSR Congress, which claims to be protagonist of United AP.
This means Seemandhra voter is not going to be carried away by the bifurcation related emotions as was predicted earlier, but definitely Telangana voter still prefers Congress party as responsible for granting separate state and TRS as the main force behind formation of Telangana.
The survey was conducted between March 18 to 23 with a sample size of 1308 in 23 selected Parliamentary segments. Significantly a survey conducted by the same agency in February 2014 did gave different equation.
For the entire AP, The Congress party, which got 39 per cent vote share in 2009 general elections, fared 23 per cent in February survey and 18 in the latest March month survey.
BJP, which got 3.7 per cent vote share in 2009, got an estimated increased share of 6 per cent in February, which further went up to 8 per cent.
However when it comes to Jaganmohan Reddy's party, it got a projected vote share of 25 per cent in Feb, which was decreased to 21 in March Survey.
It’s main rival Telugu Desam party which polled just 24. 6 per cent in 2009, had an estimated vote share of 23 per cent in Feb, went up to 29 per cent in March survey, giving a clear edge over others.
Similarly TRS, which only got 6.1 per cent of votes in 2009 polls, improved its share to 12 per cent in Feb and 13 per cent in March.
As far as the new entrant Aam Aadmi Party is concerned, it is going to insignificant as far as 2014 LS polls in AP, with just one per cent of estimated vote share reflected in both the surveys in Feb and March
Both Congress and TRS parties are in neck-to-neck fight to secure majority seats, but there is a significant rise in TRS vote share from Feb survey to March survey.
Congress share rose from 32 to 35 in the two surveys, whereas TRS surges from 26 to 34. BJP vote share remain unchanged with 10 per cent in both the surveys.
Though significant but overall marginal was Telugu Desam party increased vote share from 11 in Feb to 13 in March.
Meanwhile, Chandrababu Naidu's TDP surges ahead over Jaganmohan Reddy in Seemandhra where BJP also improved its vote share.
YSR Congress party which has estimated vote share of 45 per cent in Feb survey, dipped to 33 in March. Telugu Desam party vote share increases from 33 to 39, whereas BJP improved its share from 3 per cent to 7 per cent, which is quite significant.
However, Seemandhra people seems to have decided to punish Congress party for dividing the state this time in the polls as the vote share of 16 per cent in Feb slipped to just 7 in March.
As per the survey, Telugu Desam party got 43 per cent vote share in Coastal Andhra but got only 31 per cent share in Rayalaseema region, whereas YSR Congress which got only 29 per cent vote share in Coastal-Andhra are ahead in Rayalaseema with 41 per cent vote share.
When voters specifically asked ' who would you give the credit for the decision to create Telangana separate state', 37 per cent voters gives credit to K. Chandrasekhara Rao's TRS, which is far ahead of Congress party to whom only 21 per cent voters gave credit.
However significant factor in the survey was only 3 per cent voters give credit to Telangana Congress leaders for achieving the separate state.
Not only that 50 per cent of TRS voters considers TRS decision not to merge with Congress party was right decision where as only 9 per cent did not endorse the TRS decision.
Modi ahead in PM choice
BJP's Narendra Modi however ahead over others in the Prime Minister's choice in the entire state.
While Modi and Rahul Gandhi got equal share of 21 per cent each in Telangana, Modi got 30 per cent share in Seemandhra but Rahul stood at poor 3 per cent.
Interestingly, 4 per cent of voters in Seemandhra prefered Jagan Mohan Reddy as PM, better than Chandrababu (3 per cent), Manmohan Singh and Sonia Gandhi (1 per cent each).
While the BJP counts in LS elections, it does not in Assembly elections. CBN needs a friendly power at the centre, so he won't upset the BJP too much. The local BJP peasants must be oppressed, but not to the point where they will rebel and upset the alliance. He is walking a delicate balance.RajeshA wrote:It is possible that some surveys may be part of dirty tricks dept of Congress and its associates giving TDP a higher percentage to make CBN greedier and an alliance with BJP more unlikely.
So the underlying text is both TDP and BJP feel they have good chances in AP on both sides.HYDERABAD: Buoyed by poll surveys that are pointing to the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) becoming stronger by the day, its chief N Chandrababu Naidu has begun talking tough. As a result, the proposed alliance between the TDP and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is oscillating between getting struck and collapsing altogether.
After three days of intense negotiations in Hyderabad and Delhi between leaders of the two parties, no consensus could be arrived at on Wednesday because of which BJP national spokesperson Prakash Javadekar, who was scheduled to land in Hyderabad and seal the deal with Naidu, put off his visit even as the TDP leaders brokering the deal in Delhi returned to Hyderabad. The TDP is to now take a call on the alliance at a politburo meeting here at 3 pm on Thursday that will be presided over by the party president.
The Lok Sabha seats of Malkajgiri and Chevella in Telangana and Visakhapatnam and Vijayawada in the Seemandhra region have emerged as the major bone of contention. In Telangana, the BJP was offered eight Lok Sabha seats, but since Malkajgiri and Chevella were not in that list, the party is demanding that these two seats be substituted for two other seats. However, the TDP has refused to part with these two LS constituencies.
On Wednesday, the BJP climbed down a little and is now ready to settle for either Malkajgiri or Chevella, instead of both. The TDP feels that it has a good chance of winning both the seats and will decide on Thursday whether it is willing to give up one of the Lok Sabha seats to its likely ally. While Loksatta president Jayaprakash Narayan is seeking the Malkajgiri seat in return for joining the alliance, several TDP Telangana leaders too are lobbying for it. In Chevella, the TDP candidate lost by a narrow margin of 20,000 votes to the Congress and polled over four lakh votes in the 2009 elections.
{Best option is for BJP to let TDP have Chevella (good chance to win) and ask for Malkajgiri as they has promised it to Loksatta for alliance needs.}
In the Seemandha region, the TDP initially offered three Lok Sabha seats to the BJP but refused to part with either Visakhapatnam or Vijayawada as demanded by the latter. The TDP was willing to give Narsapur, Rajampet and any other three seats except Vizag and Vijayawada. On Wednesday, the TDP climbed down on this and agreed to part with two more Lok Sabha seats of which one would be Arakku. On this, it is the BJP which has to take the call.
Former Congress minister Ganta Srinivasa Rao joined the TDP on the assurance that he will be given the Vizag LS seat. Similarly, former Union minister Purandeswari joined the BJP on the assurance that she would be given the same seat. In Vijayawada, the TDP feels that it is a winning seat for the regional party and does not want to part with it.
{I think TDP gets to keep both seats. Purandeshwari won on Congress ticket and TDP goodwill. Time for her to got RS. Only thing is what chances BJP has in those five LS seats? Don't know the demographics there.}
For the Assembly, the BJP was agreeable to the 45 seats that the TDP offered to it in Telangana but wanted 40 of them to be of its choice. According to sources, the BJP is keen on the seats in Hyderabad and Ranga Reddy districts. The TDP will have to decide whether it can give in to this demand. In the Seemandhra region, the TDP is offering 13 Assembly seats but the BJP is demanding 21.
{ BJP thinks they are strong in Hyd and Ranga Reddy dts. But tdp is also strong there. So need some compromise. In AP, assuming BJP wins all the 13 even then they are not enough for a RS seat. Hence they need to contest more seats as not sure of how many they will win.}
Depending on the decisions that the TDP politburo takes on Thursday, BJP's Javadekar will fly down to Hyderabad and he and Naidu will jointly announce the deal. However, there is a likelihood of the alliance collapsing as well.
ramana wrote:Something odd is going on here.
US indicts Ukranian Oligarch for bribing Andhra Pradesh govt officials
Included are KVPR Rao who is a YSR acolyte.
Is US now taking care of GOI responsibility? Has MMS surrendered completely?
By indicting KVPRR in this mining bribe case in an are they have no jurisdiction, its revenge for YSR's helicopter ride?
This election is CBN's make or break election. If he wins status quo of his leading TDP continues and he will still carry weight. If he loses in SA then there will be a coup inside the party (wasnt there talk of Balakrishna entering politics full time) and he will be easily replaced. He pretty much knows that without riding Modi wave he stares at unpleasant times ahead. I dont think there wont be any breakup of proposed alliance. They need each other badly now.Santosh wrote:I hope CBN does not turn out to be another megalomaniac like Nitish. Being consigned to political dust bin is the apt treatment for such idiots. With BJP support TDP can win more of the seats that they contest and can form govt in AP down the road. I hope sanity prevails.
That is the key. The Nitish Kumar comparison can apply the other way too.In negotiation there is a concept called BATNA ( Best alternative to negotiated agreement). One need to see not only their own BATNA but the opponent's too The BATNA for BJP in SA is abysmal, although the BATNA for TDP too is dangerously close to falling short of majority. Therefore both need each other But if BJP thinks that they can push them around, it can boomerang. None of the BJP leaders can be winnable on their own, even if the list includes the likes of Puranderaswari, Kavuri or Krishnam Raju. For last few months, the people support for CBN and Jagan is following opposite trajectory. If this trend continues until elections, CBN may not need BJP support in SA. That is definitely one aspect why TDP is not yielding to BJP.Yogi_G wrote:This election is CBN's make or break election. If he wins status quo of his leading TDP continues and he will still carry weight. If he loses in SA then there will be a coup inside the party (wasnt there talk of Balakrishna entering politics full time) and he will be easily replaced. He pretty much knows that without riding Modi wave he stares at unpleasant times ahead. I dont think there wont be any breakup of proposed alliance. They need each other badly nowSantosh wrote:I hope CBN does not turn out to be another megalomaniac like Nitish. Being consigned to political dust bin is the apt treatment for such idiots. With BJP support TDP can win more of the seats that they contest and can form govt in AP down the road. I hope sanity prevails.
RamaY wrote:I hope in Seemandhra they will elect every TDP candidate and defeat every BJP candidate.
I have a feeling this Kavuri guy joined only after his seat is confirmed in BJP alliance.
Ah - well, it is only correct for KCR to join the Mullahs. As our Muppalla-garu reminded us, Velama Doras and Mullahs have a long lasting (centuries long, actually) alliance signed in shared deer biryani dinners. This should make it easier for BJP to get more Yindoo votes in the takleef based politics of the twin cities.muraliravi wrote:Trs promises 12% reservation to muslims in their manifesto
Well, i doubt if they can milk that in this election. Looks like people from TG will vote for TRS/Cong this election, even if they promise 50% reservation for muslims.nageshks wrote:Ah - well, it is only correct for KCR to join the Mullahs. As our Muppalla-garu reminded us, Velama Doras and Mullahs have a long lasting (centuries long, actually) alliance signed in shared deer biryani dinners. This should make it easier for BJP to get more Yindoo votes in the takleef based politics of the twin cities.muraliravi wrote:Trs promises 12% reservation to muslims in their manifesto
If the locals were winnable candidates would the BJP leadership have accpeted outsiders! Again a new source of whines. I think if the BJP loses any of those four seats these guys should be expelled.Even as BJP and TDP are on the verge of clinching an alliance, the former is facing a new problem in Telangana. Resentment is brewing among its rank and file over the move to field newcomers in many constituencies ignoring local party men.
Some of the senior leaders,who did not wish to be identified, expressed their dismay at the unilateral manner in which the leadership has decided to give tickets to newcomers, whom they described as “outsiders”. A senior leader without naming anybody criticised the party leadership for giving commitment to some new candidates that they would be fielded, while ignoring loyal party leaders.
“We are the people, who work round-the-clock and are dedicated to the party,” the leader observed, while expressing his resentment over the manner in which the selection of the candidates was done. “Every member of the BJP State Election Committee is dissatisfied,” he added.
Referring to the elaborate exercise carried out by the party prior to short-listing of the candidates, he said each district committee was asked to submit names of three candidates in the order of preference for every Assembly constituency. In some instances, none of the names given by the committee was considered. “Some weight should have been given to the names suggested by the committee,” he lamented.
Another leader said there were also instances of clearing names of candidates, even before they joined the party. He cited Ranga Reddy, Medak, Nizamabad and Adilabad as some of the districts where “outsiders” were being fielded. When the party was contesting less than half the total number of seats, the candidates should be in a position to inspire the cadres. This ‘disturbed’ atmosphere in the party would definitely have some impact on the outcome. “When the party is down or not strong, the effort should be to strengthen it and not create more problems,” he added.
They need to wrap up the alliance quick. There is barely time to print posters with pictures of NaMo and CBN, and plaster millions of them all over SA and TG.ramana wrote:So did the BJP and TDP ally or still in limbo? Or waiting for TRS to jump into Congress arms?
Where did she say that? I am her big fan.Rony wrote:On a lighter note, after Telugu actors now its the turn of actresses to support Modi. Now Samantha says she is a Modi supporter
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m590DhQHs0Agandharva wrote:Where did she say that? I am her big fan.
I heard on TV news. She openly supported Modi. There is a lot more support but the alliance deal is never ending saga. They are losing valuable time in campaigning.gandharva wrote:Where did she say that? I am her big fan.Rony wrote:On a lighter note, after Telugu actors now its the turn of actresses to support Modi. Now Samantha says she is a Modi supporter
There was sympathy for Jagan when he was in jail. But it all got evaporated when he entered Tirupati temple with sandals.Jagan ki Tirupathi Effect baga padindi.. Monnati varaku papam okkadini chesi anni parteelu aadukuntunnayi, jail lo pettinchayi ane sympathy undedhi..
Monna Municipal election lo adigaa enti situation ani.. Jagan ni banda boothulu thiduthunnaru.. Venkanna babu tho pettukunnadu, cheppulatho velthada antu okate thitlu.. TDP ke maa vote antu
If wishes were horses, I would have liked BJP to get Telangana and a somewhat more Hindutvavadi TDP to inherit AP.nageshks wrote:^^^
If there is this amount of resistance to the Alliance, maybe the BJP should just let go and contest on its own. Let us see how many seats Chicken Reddy and his band of ossified critters can get for the BJP. The hatred for TDP is too deep in T-BJP for any alliance to work. Chicken Reddy will never agree to anything but a TDP mukt Telangana at any price. He thinks he can kill the TDP and grow (he can't, IMO, but he is against giving TDP a chance to survive in T). Fine. Let him campaign and ally with the TDP post poll. Maybe BJP should try to get Puran, Pawan Kalyan and Krishnam Raju to the SA Assembly, where they can build the BJP in SA.
BJP will survive 2014 loss but he won't.Hari Seldon wrote:^He'll still need to be in center's good books after the polls, so he'll keep his options open, IMO.
I doubt this has anything to do with Chinnamma. The hatred between TDP and Kishan is too deep to be healed. TDP is Telangana Drohi Party for many T afficionados. They just don't want CBN (or Jagan) poking his nose inside T again, and they will go to any lengths to accomplish that goal.RajeshA wrote: If wishes were horses, I would have liked BJP to get Telangana and a somewhat more Hindutvavadi TDP to inherit AP.
For me there are two issues with TG+AP
Also this feels like a Chinamma play using proxies.
- SA/AP has a TDP or TDP+BJP majority in assembly and thus can stop Jagan from converting AP to Christianity.
- NaMo forms a strong govt in Delhi and MPs from TG and AP can help.
- No MIM in Telangana Govt. and no Muslim appeasement there, no Nawab-bhakti.
